Kuzul

The MLB season will see several young players blossom into stars.

Young players will cause below-average teams to look forward to their futures and make veterans expendable on current contenders.

These four players will stand above the rest of baseball’s blue-chip talents:

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

Hosmer will eventually be the best first baseman in baseball. That will not happen this year, but he will show he is destined for stardom.

Hosmer hits for average and power. He shows great patience at the place and will continue to develop as he sees more pitches.

Defensively, Hosmer is elite. He has excellent range and instincts.

The Royals have one of the best young crops of players in baseball. Hosmer is the centerpiece and should be coveted by fantasy baseball owners. 

He will eventually hit between 30 and 40 home runs and knock in 100 runs while hitting above .300.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Jennings will make Rays fans forget Carl Crawford sooner rather than later.

Jennings has incredible speed and a solid all-around game at the dish. He lacks huge power but sprays the ball to all fields. His best asset is his speed because of his gap power.

Crawford is a bigger name at this point, but Jennings is cut from the same cloth. He will lead the Rays for years to come.

Fantasy owners will love Jennings’ speed. He will swipe at least 40 bases a year.

If Jennings develops more power, he will be a can’t-miss fantasy player. His speed and contact combination will make owners drool either way.

Matt Moore, P, Tampa Bay Rays

Moore will win a Cy Young in his career. He is among the premier left-handers in baseball, and he is just a rookie.

Moore’s power stuff from the left side is unparalleled. He throws in the high-90s and has a sharp, biting slider. If he develops his changeup, he will be unhittable.

The Rays boast one of the best young pitching staffs in the game today. Moore will be the staff ace once he polishes his dominant repertoire.

Moore became a pitcher instead of just a thrower over the course of his minor league career.

Fantasy owners need to jump on Moore now. He is a dream scenario for anyone controlling a keeper league team.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners

Ackley has excellent bat control and makes great contact at the plate because of it. The Mariners will be very happy with what he becomes and so will fantasy owners.

Defensively, Ackley is still developing his handle as a second baseman. He may never be an elite defensive player, but he will hit well enough to make fans forget any shortcomings.

Ackley just flat-out understands how to hit. He squares up the ball and can hit to any part of the field.

He has enough speed to hurt teams on balls in the gap, but not enough to steal a ton of bases.

Fantasy owners can expect Ackley to hit well over. 300, with 15-20 home runs. He will be a very capable option at the top of the Mariners’ order for a long time.

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Fantasy baseball owners are in large part a patient bunch, but it never helps to see a high-round pick like James Shields get rocked in his first start of 2012.

It took 105 pitches for Shields to get through just five innings against the New York Yankees on Friday—a team Shields had done surprisingly well against last year. Shields surrendered six earned runs against the Bronx Bombers, which was just three shy of his 2011 season total against them.

With all that being said, though, the Tampa Bay ace was one of the best pitchers in the American League last year, and it’s far too early to panic on the guy.

Shields is coming off arguably his best MLB season, with a career-best 225 strikeouts and 16 wins through 33 starts in 2011. He’s part of the most deadly rotation in baseball— his teammates include Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and David Price—and there’s plenty to like about Shields this year.

He’s a strikeout machine, and his division isn’t looking as intimidating as it once was.

The American League East division has always had a reputation of housing some of the biggest sluggers in the bigs. But while the Yankees still have an imposing lineup, Boston is still trying to fit the pieces in place, and Toronto and Baltimore haven’t changed much since last season. So there’s no reason to fear the “mighty” AL East when you start Shields against his division rivals this year—or when he plays any other teams for that matter.

Sure, the Tampa Bay starter has had some ups and downs in his career. I mean, he finished with an ERA over five in 2010. While some analysts will point to that fact and worry that Shields is just the newest flash in the pan, you can go back to any time in his career and notice that he’s always had “the stuff.”

The 2012 Rays are a whole different beast than their 2010 team, with the aforementioned deadly rotation and an offense featuring Carlos Pena (once again), a more experienced Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and newcomer Desmond Jennings. Long gone are the days of Tampa Bay fielding a mediocre baseball team. These Rays mean business, and Shields is going to be a big part of their success this year.

In fantasy baseball, you have to wear through the early pains of all you drafted for at least the first month of the season, especially when it’s a superstar like Shields. As many analysts will tell you during April, this fantasy sport we love is a marathon, not a race. You don’t drop great players just because they hit the disabled list, and you certainly don’t drop your best or second-best pitcher due to one or two bad starts out of the gate.

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Max Scherzer went 15-9 last year with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He collected 174 strikeouts. He has the ability to put up better numbers this year, but can he be elite?

Prior to last year, the only time Scherzer’s ERA had been above 4.00 in his professional career was 2009 for the Diamondbacks.

Part of the problem came in the form of the longball, as he yielded a career-high 29 deep shots. Most of the damage came on the road as he allowed 11 home runs in 18 home starts and 18 home runs in 15 road starts. His ERA (3.80 at home, 5.23 on the road) was affected by that fact.

Interestingly enough, he pitched better in the second half (4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .263 BAA) than the first half (4.69, 1.44, .279), but had more success in the first half (10-4 compared to 5-5).

Scherzer was 8-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 16 starts against the AL Central. On paper the Indians, Royals, Twins and White Sox do not provide an intimidating presence, and continued success remains a strong likelihood.

Scherzer has a Mock Draft Central ADP of 147, which puts him in the 13th round of 12-team drafts. He’s the 43rd pitcher to come off the board, making him a fourth starting pitcher.

He needs to improve his strikeout percentage, which was a career-low 20.9 percent last year and keep more balls in the yard. I don’t think he’ll be an elite starting pitching option, but he is a top-25 option.

He starts off against Boston—who bombed him for seven runs in two innings last year—so temper your expectations early on, but he should be a solid SP3 with SP2 upside.

Also check out:

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Can Matt Wieters Continue to Improve?
Can Chris Young Blow Up in 2012?
Can Derek Jeter Still Get It Done?
Will Joe Mauer Shed the Joey Singles Moniker?

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Why on-base percentage? For those in standard rotisserie or points leagues, why do you care about on-base percentage? Because in most roto formats, runs are a category, and you can’t score without getting on base. Stolen bases are a category, and you can’t steal without getting on base (cut to frustrated Austin Jackson owners). 

These are not necessarily sleepers to have amazing, breakout years. These are guys who are being drafted in the mid to late rounds and will get on base to help you in multiple ways. 

Some of these players are going as late as they are due to poor 2011 seasons, and they wouldn’t be listed here if I didn’t expect some level of bounce back, at least enough to make their current draft position a legitimate bargain.  

Begin Slideshow

Let’s pretend your pre-Opening Day fantasy draft permits the trading of actual picks in 10-team mixed leagues (not just slots).

Here’s an unconventional road map to a roto championship, tailor-made for owners who believe in the depth of potential stars (or difference-makers) with pre-draft values ranging from 45-85:

The Premise

Trade picks in Rounds 1, 2, 4, 12, 14 and 16.

The Strategy

Step 1: Trade the picks from Rounds 1 (No. 5 overall) and 16 (No. 156) to the owner of the ninth slot in exchange for his/her picks in Rounds 6 (No. 52 overall) and 7 (No. 69).

Step 2: Trade the picks from Rounds 2 (No. 16 overall) and 14 (No. 136) to the owner of the second slot in exchange for his/her picks in Rounds 6 (No. 59 overall) and 8 (No. 79).

Step 3: Trade the picks from Rounds 4 (No. 36 overall) and 12 (No. 116) to the owner of the 10th slot in exchange for his/her picks in Rounds 7 (No. 70 overall) and 8 (No. 71).

The New Bounty

• Fifteen high-value picks from Nos. 25 and 125
• Three picks in Round 6, two in Round 7 and four in Round 8

The Core (courtesy of Mock Draft Central’s ADP rankings)

Pick 1 (No. 25 overall): OF Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins (candidate for 40 homers)
Pick 2 (No. 45): SP Zack Greinke, Brewers (my 10th-ranked starting pitcher)
Pick 3 (No. 52): 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays (couldn’t risk him falling to the next spot)
Pick 4 (No. 56): OF Desmond Jennings, Rays (excellent power-speed source)
Pick 5 (No. 59): 2B Brandon Phillips, Reds (annual lock for 19 HRs, 19 steals)
Pick 6 (No. 65): 3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants (a necessary luxury pick)
Pick 7 (No. 69): 1B/3B Michael Young, Rangers (love that multi-positional versatility)
Pick 8 (No. 70): SP Madison Bumgarner, Giants
Pick 9 (No. 71): SP C.J. Wilson, Angels
Pick 10 (No. 76): 1B/2B/OF Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
Pick 11 (No. 79): OF Drew Stubbs, Reds
Pick 12 (No. 85): 1B/OF Michael Morse, Nationals (30-HR asset to return by April 12)
Pick 13 (No. 96): SP Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Pick 14 (No. 105): OF Jason Heyward, Braves
Pick 15 (No. 125): SS Dee Gordon, Dodgers

Breakdown

1. The first 15 picks didn’t produce one closer (although John Axford was a major consideration at 85), but that’s hardly a big concern. In 10-team drafts, Rounds 17-19 should yield a smorgasbord of Tier II closers—25-save talents like Carlos Marmol, Brandon League, Chris Perez, Javy Guerra, Joe Nathan and Huston Street.

2. I landed four of my top 26 starting pitchers, and frankly, the fourth starter (Wainwright) may prove to be the most successful by season’s end. Last March, before he suffered an elbow injury, Wainwright (20 wins, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 strikeouts in 2010) was my No. 3 overall pitcher heading into Grapefruit League play.

3. My philosophy for drafting shortstops is quite simple: If I can’t corral Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Elvis Andrus or Starlin Castro in the first six rounds, I will skip the big-name, occasionally erratic vets from Rounds 7-12 before settling on Dee Gordon, a lightning-fast lock for 40 steals in 2012.

4. With six outfield-eligible assets in the first 15 picks, I won’t feel compelled to overextend for Lorenzo Cain, Austin Jackson, Martin Prado, Carlos Lee, Brandon Belt, Brennan Boesch, Mike Trout or Denard Span. However, at least three of the above names will be available in Rounds 24 and 25. Future superstars Trout, Cain and Belt have immense upside.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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When building a fantasy rotation, you’re going to need to add depth, and the more you can add, the better you’ll be. Fortunately, you can do a lot of that with pitching, and these guys are some good ones to look at. Best of all is that any or all of these guys will probably be available to you. 

Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins

The concern here is that Buehrle’s around the plate a lot, so he does surrender a lot of hits. But that’s really the only concern here. 

The hits are more than made up for by the fact that he hardly walks anybody, so the WHIP is greatly neutralized. On top of that, he does not allow a lot of run, so the ERA will be fine. 

Buehrle is pitching on a team that will give him plenty of chances to win games, and he throws a lot of innings, never logging fewer than 200 in a full season. That’s a good way to keep your staff ERA down, as it limits the damage caused by one run. 

On top of all of that, Buehrle is now in the National League, so he now gets the benefit of facing a pitcher instead of nine professional hitters. This is a good middle of the rotation guy that will make your team very deep in pitching. 

Dixon’s Projection’s 

R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

The drawback here is the Mets are just not a very good team, so the wins aren’t likely to be high. Still, pitching in Citi Field has done good things for Dickey, who has a 3.08 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in two years as a Met.

What a guy like Dickey will do is enable you to pick up pitchers that will win a lot of games but have inflated ERA’s, like guys on the Yankees or Red Sox. Dickey will be there to provide a good balance. 

Even with the fences moving in, there is no reason to think that Citi Field won’t still be a strong pitching park. The fact is that it’s hard to hit that knuckle ball, so a spacious stadium is good for the ERA. The strikeouts won’t be great, but won’t be terrible either. 

Dixon’s Projection’s 

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays

Think of this is sort of a coupling move. I previously said Dickey would be valuable because you could then go for a guy on a good team that will win games but have a higher ERA and WHIP than you would like. Davis is that guy. 

The innings will be solid, which is always good. The walk totals won’t be high, which will neutralize a lot of hits. But the Rays will win a lot of games, which means Davis will win games. That’s just as valuable as any category in fantasy baseball. 

Dixon’s Projection’s 

Follow @mdixon1985

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In a perverse way, I’m glad the Yankees have starting pitcher Michael Pineda earmarked for the 15-day disabled list (shoulder tendinitis) before Opening Day.

To clarify, I would never cheer for any player to get injured; that’s not my style. But from a fantasy perspective, this situation should be a fascinating case study of Jittery Fantasy Guy/Gal vs. Rational-Thinking Fantasy Guy/Gal, as both types prepare for their drafts sometime between today and the Wednesday “opener” of Cardinals-Marlins (Miami’s official christening of its new stadium).

If you have already drafted Pineda, part of the blockbuster offseason trade involving the Mariners (Jesus Montero) and Yankees, there’s no reason to do anything rash in the coming days. Simply wait a week or two to assess what might happen with Pineda (9 wins, 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 173 strikeouts last year with Seattle) getting some rest before making a rehab start or two. Besides, it’s not like you’d get market value with any panic trades. For better or worse, you’ll just have to stick it out for a bit.

As for those who have yet to draft…

Prior to Friday’s erratic start against the Phillies and subsequent complaints of shoulder stiffness, Pineda had an Average Draft Position value of 104th overall and ranked as the 28th starting pitcher. Obviously, those numbers will dip in the coming days…but by how much? Here are some comparison questions to ponder:

1. What were your expectations of Pineda before the Yankees opened camp?

2. What will be your expectations if Pineda returns to the majors, fully healthy, by May 1?

3. Would you rather have Pineda, Atlanta’s Tim Hudson (back) or the Cards’ Chris Carpenter (nerve irritation) for the season ahead?

4. Where would you prioritize Pineda amongst Max Scherzer, Derek Holland, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez—four pitchers ranked somewhere in the 30s—from May 1-Sept. 30 only?

If your answers are largely optimistic, then it makes sense to only let Pineda slide to Round 13 or 14. If your answers are predominantly pessimistic, there’s probably no time before Round 17 that warrants any consideration. In fact, you may be privately thrilled when someone else grabs Pineda at his adjusted value.

Let someone else deal with that potential headache. Right? Wrong? Only time will tell.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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While the A’s and Mariners got things going last week in Japan, for most fans, next Thursday and Friday will mark Opening Day. This weekend is also mega-fantasy baseball draft time, with thousands hunched over laptops and around tables trying to slide the next great move onto their teams.

The end of 2011 was certainly the time when technology and analytics arrived in baseball. From tablets players were using to a new level of Moneyball, along with all the trimmings of social media, baseball 3.0 is probably here for good. So with all that in mind, here are some choices for engaging in baseball in the stands, on the beach, or on the laptop.

MLB.com At Bat (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad: Free, with subscription, Android: Free/$14.99)

MLB.com At Bat is the king of all fan engagement tools. It is also probably the most expensive, but you get everything for live audio streaming  to highlights, statistics and news specific to your favorite/chosen teams. Owners that also have MLB.TV can also watch every game on their mobile app, with angles not even available on broadcasts.

Bloomberg Sports “Front Office” (iPhone, Microsoft, iPad $3)

In three years, the Bloomberg Sports tools have gone from unwieldy to very functional, and lots of fun for the fantasy player and for the general sports fan.  This is the second year that Bloomberg has offered a mobile app which allows you to sync all your leagues and gives you up to the minute updates on your players. It looks great, runs well and is one-stop shopping for those who play in multiple leagues. There is also a PC version available that is more expensive and has things like instant alerts sent to your phone.

ScoreMobile (iPhone, Free)

ScoreMobile is a free app that covers many sports, but its biggest asset is baseball and its link to Rotowire, which has some of the best stats and updates available for fantasy players or even casual fans.  The baserunner feature gives you a quick check of score and goings-on during a game as well as a series of alerts to follow any series of happenings in an MLB game.

Team Stream (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad, Android: Free)

Team Stream, which is powered by Bleacher Report, lets users create customized feeds around their favorite team in all sports. Receive push notifications every time there is noteworthy news about your chosen team and enjoy the beautiful layout and sharp writing found within the app.

FanGraphs Baseball (iPhone, iPod Touch: $2.99)

A little more technical but really impressive is the app FanGraphs has built. It allows you to track every play of every game, and provides great visuals that make baseball understandable and user-friendly.

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Fantasy production from the catcher’s spot has become less and less prominent in recent seasons.

This season is no different, as ESPN hasn’t predicted any players to reach the 500-point mark in head-to-head leagues.

Now that fantasy baseball players have discovered that Victor Martinez will miss the entire 2012 season, a murky pool of players remains.

1. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians

Santana is the new cream of the crop with V-Mart gone for the year. He’s also first-base eligible, which is a huge plus, making him worthy of fifth- or sixth-round pick.

You’re guaranteed almost a point a game from him as he possesses impeccable plate discipline and knowledge of the strike zone.

He’s got great power (27 homers in 2011), and that will only get better with age. His main downside is that he’ll cost you in the average category in a rotisserie league, but for those of you in head-to-head, he has to be the No. 1 catcher.

2. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

It seems that Mauer is a real boom-or-bust pick every year. He’s great when he’s on the field, but you always hear about some lingering injury that he’s dealing with.

That being said, from 2005-2010, he played 130 games in all but one season.

In the last two seasons, his power has been sapped, presumably by his oft-injured lower body. He’s always going to hit for average, as he’s hit at least .327 in three of the last four campaigns.

The good news is that he arrived to spring training healthy, and is still healthy right now. That’s all you can hope for with a guy like Mauer who is capable of hitting .365 with 28 home runs, like he did in 2009.

3. Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers

Another catcher who is eligible at first base, Napoli is the third-best catcher available in 2012.

Here’s a word of advice: Draft Napoli a round earlier than you think he is going to go, especially if Santana and Mauer are already off the board.

Once those two get picked, people will remember they actually have to draft a catcher and will be looking at Napoli as a No. 3 pick.

There is an injury concern, as he missed 49 games in 2011, but he appears healthy heading into the season.

4. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

McCann spent some time on the disabled list last season thanks to an injured oblique muscle, and saw his average drop over 30 points upon his return.

Despite that discouraging trend, McCann’s 2012 season looks like it’s shaping up to be very successful. The Braves have a lineup full of young, quality hitters who will get on base in front of McCann.

Those hitters (Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla) are also capable of protecting him if the order were to change.

McCann hit 24 homers last season and only struck out 89 times. 

Those statistics, coupled with his low average, indicate that perhaps McCann was just unlucky in 2011. High power, high contact and low average usually indicate that the guy hit a bunch of “hang-with-ems.”

The real talent drop-off begins once McCann is taken off the board, so take one of these top-four catchers and leave the rest of your league in the dust.

5. Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks

This one was a toss-up between Matt Wieters and Montero. Montero is the guy to go with, specifically because Wieters has an average draft position of 90, 30 picks before Montero.

Montero accounted for 18 homers, 86 RBI and hit .282 last season. 

Wieters hit 22 homers and 68 RBI to the tune of a .262 average.

Wieters in the eighth or Montero in the 11th? You’d be getting more bang for your buck if you resist the urge to take the sexy pick over the sensible pick.

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The sun is shining and the birds are chirping, which of course means it’s time to sit on our computers and play fantasy baseball.

If you haven’t had your draft yet, you’ve come to the right place. With Opening Day less than one week away, now is the time to build your foundation for the summer.

We all know that stars can propel your team to the title, but which one should you select with your first pick? Just scroll down to find out.

1. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

With Albert Pujols’ numbers declining, Cabrera is the best option for the first overall pick.

He won’t be stealing many bases (2 SB last year), but he’s going to produce some monster power numbers. Last season he drove in 105 runs, hit 30 homers and and posted a ridiculous .448 on-base percentage.

You can expect similar numbers from him in 2012.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Anaheim Angels

Although his numbers have been dropping off, Pujols isn’t going anywhere. He’s still the most dangerous slugger in the game, and judging by his career interleague numbers (.348 with 39 homers in 541 at-bats), he shouldn’t have any problem adjusting to the American League.

3. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

After winning his suspension appeal, Braun should be one of the first three players taken in any draft. Last year he went for 33 home runs and 33 stolen bases while hitting .330.

If he has similar success this season, he could easily be the MVP of fantasy baseball.

4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

In 2011, Kemp became just the third player in history to steal at least 35 bases and hit 35 home runs while batting .320 or better.

I think his numbers will drop a little this year, but he’s still a great pickup in the top five.

5. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Bautista cranked 43 home runs in 2011, while also driving in 103 runs and posting a solid .302 batting average. However, his post-All-Star Game slump (.257, 12 HRs) is a bit concerning.

6. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

Cano is unquestionably the best second-baseman in fantasy baseball. He’s already batted better than .300 in five seasons, while hitting 25-plus homers three times. Expect more big numbers, as he’s just now entering his prime.

7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

Tulowitzki is pretty injury-prone, but he’s still the best option at shortstop. You can expect another 30-home run season from him in 2012.

8. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 24-year-old Upton is the best player in fantasy this season. Last year he hit 31 home runs and stole 21 bases. Look for him to improve on both numbers this season.

9. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

I wouldn’t expect Ellsbury to hit 32 home runs again, but he’s guaranteed to steal at least 30 bases and hit in the .300-.320 range.

10. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Votto is one of the most well-rounded hitters in baseball, and with the hitter-friendly stadium in Cincinnati, he should put up strong numbers in 2012. He’s definitely worth a top 10 pick.

11. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

This is a bit of a reach for a pitcher, but I think Halladay’s worth it. Last season, he set a career high in strikeouts per nine innings (8.47) and posted a 2.35 ERA.

You can expect him to continue his dominance this year.

12. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

His batting average dropped last year (.244), but his power was excellent (31 HRs). If he can bring his average up this season, Longoria will be one of top 10 or 12 players in fantasy.

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