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Fantasy baseball owners hoping to sneak underrated players with quality power and speed need look no further than Will Venable.

The San Diego Padres right fielder will likely be overlooked, as is the case for three other similar players on this list.

Your opponents’ misses are your gain.

These late-round steals offer fantastic versatility. They’ll produce home runs and provide plenty of points through stolen bases.

Patient, risk-taking owners will profit from Venable and more, while friends mistake bigger names as better talent.

Here are the four guys who will be available and will round out your squad nicely.

Will Venable

Venable will be disregarded merely because of the team he plays for—the Padres are awful.

Awful teams must be filled with awful players, right?

Wrong!

Venable hits a consistent .250, nothing overwhelming, but he’ll still give you around 15 home runs and 50 RBI.

Better yet, he’ll net you 30 stolen bases.

Decent numbers for a mid-round guy. Great numbers for a player who will fall to the later rounds.

Jordan Schafer

In just 82 games last season, Schafer hit two home runs and stole 22 bases.

At just 25 years old, Schafer has found a home as the starting center fielder with the Houston Astros.

Now that he finally has the opportunity to play a full season with one team, he will benefit and so should fantasy owners.

He has the speed to steal 30 bases and enough pop to hit around a dozen home runs.

Schafer, like Venable, plays for a bad team—the Houston Astros—so he’ll likely be forgotten by many when they’re putting together their draft boards.

If you’re daring enough to acquire Schafer, you won’t be sorry.

Tyler Pastornicky

The 22-year-old shortstop finds himself starting for the Atlanta Braves.

When considering players from the NL East, most fantasy owners will look at the big names on the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins.

Even those who look at the Braves will likely pass over Pastornicky for Brian McCann, Jason Heyward and even Martin Prado, yet Pastornicky has the stuff to garner Rookie of the Year consideration.

In the minors, he averaged about six home runs and 35 stolen bases. The minor leagues haven’t provided him an opportunity to play in more than 125 games though.

His power and speed should continue to develop, and given 30 more games a season, Pastornicky can produce eight to 10 home runs and 40 stolen bases.

Dexter Fowler

In his fifth year, Fowler will benefit from consistency as the everyday center fielder.

Like Pastornicky, Fowler will be passed up by owners reviewing the Colorado Rockies lineup for bigger names such as Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Fowler averages about five home runs each season, but hitting at Coors Field, there’s always hope he can produce more.

If he can stay healthy and start in 30 more games than he normally does, his numbers can easily rise.

Though he stole a low number of bases the last two seasons, he has the speed to steal over 25, as shown in 2009.

He’s only 26 years old, so he has youth on his side. Consistency and development will make him worth a look in 2012.

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Fantasy baseball owners beware: Don’t fall for the seemingly incredible 2011 statistics of players like Melky Cabrera and others. Sure, they had great seasons last year. But they’re still streaky hitters.

As each new session of fantasy baseball nears, fans fall in love with players who produced so significantly last year that they must be hot commodities now. If they don’t snag them early, the thinking goes, someone else definitely will.

Let them.

Here’s a look at four players who will lead you to believe they’re going to do wondrous things for your squad, only to have you shaking your head in regret.

Melky Cabrera

Last season, Cabrera hit a very impressive .305 with over 200 hits, 18 home runs and 87 RBI. Unfortunately, it’s the first time since 2006 that he hit over .275.

2011 was also only the second time he’s ever hit double-digit home runs.

Cabrera is too inconsistent to draft early.

Consider the fact that, as the next big New York Yankee outfielder, the Yankees were comfortable shipping him to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves didn’t see enough to consider him a necessity, as they traded him to the Royals, and even after last year’s dazzle, the Kansas City Royals traded him.

They wisely capitalized on Cabrera at his highest value. You won’t receive the same in return.

Alex Rios

Toward the middle of the draft, or even late in the draft, you might look at big-name players still on the board that most have given up on. You may consider players who once had thunder and could be a terrific steal for your roster.

Alex Rios is not that guy.

He has the power to put up double-digit home runs and the speed to eclipse 20 stolen bases. But he’s too streaky to be trusted.

Furthermore, the Chicago White Sox are likely sellers by the trade deadline, which means Rios may find a new home.

Selecting a player facing questions about whether or not his new digs can provide a rebirth just isn’t worth the trouble. After all, Chicago was supposed to be the rebirth.

Corey Hart

It might be tempting to think Corey Hart, the Milwaukee Brewers’ next-most-powerful slugger after Ryan Braun, is the guy who steps up in Prince Fielder’s absence.

Erase those feelings now.

Hart can’t be trusted due to inconsistencies in nearly every category.

A .280 average is respectable, but Hart has shown the propensity to hit at the .260 level in back-to-back seasons as well. His home runs are all over the place as well. Since 2008, he’s hit 20, 12, 31 and 26, respectively.

His runs batted in show the same up-and-down trend. Since 2008, Hart has produced 91, 48, 102 and 63 RBI, respectively.

Hart’s biggest issue is his health (no pun intended). He has had a difficult time staying on the field throughout his career. In an eight-year career, he’s played a full season just once.

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer had such a good season in 2011 that he garnered a three-year, $31.5 million contract from the Colorado Rockies.

Like the Rockies, fantasy owners are salivating at the idea of Cuddyer in Major League Baseball’s most hitter-friendly park, Coors Field.

First, Cuddyer is coming off a season in which injuries reduced his time to 139 games. He’s going to be 33 years old this season, so fantasy owners should question how he will rebound in 2012.

Not only is injury a concern, but Cuddyer is switching teams for the first time in his career. Likewise, he makes the jump from the American League to the National League. Nearly every pitcher in the AL Central lacking the last name Verlander is streaky.

In 2012, Cuddyer will match his talents on a regular basis against guys like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw and Ian Kennedy.

Good luck to him.

And good luck to you if you fall for it and draft him.

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I’ve got three guys that are ready to have the types of seasons that will anchor your fantasy teams. No they aren’t the obvious Ryan Brauns and Albert Pujols of the world. These are young talents that have shown flashes of greatness, but in 2012, they will explode.

First the best of the young Cubs:

Starlin Castro

The Cubs’ young shortstop has already had two seasons hitting over .300. Last season he lead the league in hits with 207. This is the season his power numbers will take a boost.

The 2012 season will be Castro’s third and this is generally the time when players of his physical stature and age group see a power numbers boost.

His numbers are already on the upswing. He tripled his HR total from 2010 in 2011, and added 25 RBI and 12 SB. Castro will continue his ascension up the list of NL’s elite players in 2012. Look for a .315/25/80 season from Castro this year.

Hunter Pence

Pence has always been a solid player, and after the trade from the lowly Astros to the Phillies last season that trend continued. In 54 regular season games, Pence hit .324, 11 HR and 35 RBI.

Believe it or not, those RBI numbers should go up as Pence is likely to hit third or fourth in the Phillies’ lineup while Ryan Howard is out. 

With Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley batting ahead of him and presumably getting on base, Pence should have ample opportunity to drive his run production up.

I predict Pence will deliver a .320 average with 120 RBI in 2012.

Mike Morse

The Nats’ power-hitter isn’t that young in age, he’s 29. But in experience, he’s still an up and comer. Last season was the first year he had more than 300 at bats in a season, and he really took advantage of it.

Morse blasted 31 HR, drove in 95 runners and hit .303. Morse does strike out a bit, as he fanned 126 times in 2011. He’s a free swinger but surprisingly enough, he hits for a high average, even in taking only 36 walks.

Morse is on the upswing in my opinion, and this feels like a 40 HR, 100 RBI season. He was always a highly touted prospect but serious injuries early in his career have hampered him. He is healthy now and is a legitimate stud.

Snatch him up if you get the chance.

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Fantasy baseball—quite possibly the most complex and exhausting fantasy sport there is.

Fantasy baseball managers are often burying their heads in rankings, projections and even articles such as this one. But why? Fantasy baseball isn’t much more than a game of statistics and a player’s history. It doesn’t take an “expert” to tell you that Albert Pujols is consistent or that Buster Posey has upside: The numbers say it all.

Some may be overwhelmed by the vast amounts of statistical categories involved in fantasy baseball— from ERA (Earned-Run Average) to the more obscure BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play).

Rankings are based off of somewhat complex calculations, and often vary greatly depending on the source. You may see Jacoby Ellsbury as high as 10, and as low as 25—not much of a help when you’re deciding whether or not to draft him. Situations like that lead me to my main point: Research the players.

When researching players, you not only find the projections and rankings along the way but you have a better understanding as to the type of player you are drafting. 

Rankings and projections poorly take into account injuries, current news and player types. I will use Jacoby Ellsbury as an example once again, as he just happens to be my pick for AL East bust of the year. In 2011, Ellsbury posted a ridiculous stat line for a lead off hitter—.321 avg/32 HR/105 R/119 RBI/39 SB.

That’s an impressive season, and I can see why Ellsbury is seen as a top option in the outfield—until you look at all of the numbers.

In 2010, Ellsbury only played in 18 games, his season being marred by an injury. In two full season from 2008-2009 Jacoby never had more than 9 homers and 60 runs batted in, yet he is projected to hit at least 20 homers and 75 runs batted in. Something doesn’t seem right here, and drafting him based of of these projected numbers may very well leave you very unsatisfied.

During 2011, pitcher Tim Stauffer posted a modest 3.73 ERA. What is misleading about this rather unproven pitcher is his numbers within the splits. At home, in San Diego, Stauffer was very effective with a 2.57 ERA. The problem is, San Diego is a very pitcher friendly park. On the road, his ERA was 4.97. The road ERA is more of a testament to Stauffer’s talent and more accurately shows what you should expect of him on a regular basis. To add to my point, Stauffer had an ERA of 2.97 through the first half of the season. After the break, he managed just a 5.05 ERA. Ending a season in such a horrible fashion as an unproven pitcher should strike fear into anyone drafting him—even though his 2011 ERA of 3.73 doesn’t suggest that.

As a fantasy baseball manager, you should expect to win only if you research deeper into statistics and historical values; they’ll prove much more telling than ranking, ADP and projections.

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Here are the results from my live, mixed-league auction draft on Tuesday, where each owner had to fill 24 spots on a $260 budget. While it’s true that no two auction drafts are alike (just like snowflakes), I faithfully adhered to five time-tested philosophies of spender conduct:

1. Don’t invest more than $27 on two elite players.
2. If you’re going to spend like a drunken sailor, do it with power-hitting corner infielders.
3. Never pay exorbitantly for saves.
4. Be the last (or second-to-last) owner to go below the $100 threshold.
5. And don’t ever be afraid to call a fellow owner’s bluff at the end of the draft.

Lights, Camera, Auction…

Phase I—Early Spending Spree
1B Joey Votto, Reds – $42 (my No. 3 first baseman)
OF Josh Hamilton, Rangers – $26
SP Dan Haren, Angels – $27 (a top-12 pitcher)
OF Hunter Pence, Phillies – $21
SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers – $24 (my No. 4 shortstop)

Phase II—Restrained, Yet Jubilant Spending
2B Dan Uggla, Braves – $18
OF Shin-Soo Choo, Indians – $14
1B Eric Hosmer, Royals – $13

Phase III—Guilty Pleasures
SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals — $19
2B Rickie Weeks, Brewers – $12
OF Cameron Maybin, Padres – $8

Phase IV—Smart Shopping
OF Melky Cabrera, Giants – $6
SP Shaun Marcum, Brewers – $4 (the ‘missed-starts panic’ discount)
2B Jason Kipnis, Indians – $4
SP Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – $4

Phase V—Extremely Smart Shopping
1B/OF Carlos Lee, Astros – $2
3B Mike Moustakas, Royals – $2 (stud-in-waiting)
3B/2B Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks – $2
RP Chris Perez, Indians – $2

Phase VI—Bargain Bins
OF Lorenzo Cain, Royals – $1
SP Ricky Nolasco, Marlins – $1
C Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers – $1
SP Colby Lewis, Rangers – $1
RP Javy Guerra, Dodgers – $1

Verdict: Owning nine players at $1 or $2 would usually be cause for great concern, but the bargain-bin steals—Nolasco, Lucroy, Lewis, Guerra (hopefully the Dodgers’ closer) and Cain, the Spring Training leader in OPS (1.507) and a poor man’s Andrew McCutchen—surprisingly capped a balanced roster that’s full of power, speed, athleticism, upside and potentially prolific pitching, with a focus on strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. Not a bad group.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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Too often in baseball drafts, I see guys coming off injuries from the previous season being forgot about. And from what I’ve seen so far, Johan Santana has fallen victim to this phenomena.

I realize that Santana is coming off major surgery and hasn’t played a regular season inning since 2010, but he’s still a great talent and the unquestioned ace pitcher for the New York Mets.

Even as a Mets fan, I can safely tell you that wins won’t be his strong suit this season. I watched this club squander away countless wins for the former Cy Young winner a few seasons ago, and I fully expect similar events to take place in 2012. That being said, though, Santana is getting back into his old routine, pitching every five days, and his health looks to be at 100 percent so far this spring training.

“I’m feeling good. It’s a process. And I’m building up.” the hurler told ESPN New York.

He’s not going to be as dominant as his 2006 self, but in the two drafts I’ve had this March, he’s gone undrafted in an eight-team league with huge rosters and went in the 24th round in a standard 10-team league I’m in.

Both CBS Sports and ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockroft believe that Santana is certainly an injury risk, but in the later rounds, there’s risks with any pick. Santana gives you an upside that pitchers around his average draft position just don’t give you.

Sure, Santana is another year older and another injury into his career, but he’s still got downright nasty stuff and could make a run for the Cy Young. Can you say that about guys like Mark Buehrle and Colby Lewis who are getting drafted ahead of or around the same time as him?

The Venezuelan hurler isn’t exactly ancient at 33, and while he’s been out of the game for awhile, the Mets have handled his rehabilitation as carefully as you can ask for someone coming back from a major injury.

Santana is a great sleeper if you ask me, and the fact is that many casual managers in your draft are going to forget about him as the excitement of the draft goes on. For the potential payoff you could get from him, there’s no reason not to draft the former Twin and see how he responds to his return to the mound.

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With the 2012 MLB season just a few weeks away, it’s time to get to the nitty-gritty of the fantasy baseball sleepers for this season.

This piece will discuss the top three sleeper sluggers that fantasy owners can wait a few rounds longer on and still reap the rewards.

All of the following MLB stars will have stellar 2012 seasons, so feel free to grab them as late as physically possible.

Hunter Pence

The Philadelphia Phillies are starting the season down two men, with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both nursing injuries that could cost them extended periods of the 2012 season.

With that said, they need Hunter Pence to deliver an MVP-quality season. That’s exactly what he will do in his first full season in Phillies pinstripes. Fantasy owners should be scooping Pence up early.

After putting up a stellar .324 batting average with 11 home runs and 34 RBI in just 54 games with the Phillies last season, Pence will look to shock the world and become the Phillies’ go-to guy.

Austin Jackson

After a superb rookie season in 2010, Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson had a mediocre 2011 that saw him bat .249 and strike out 181 times.

With the addition of a slugger like Prince Fielder to an already talented offensive bunch, Jackson should see more quality pitches to hit this season. No doubt teams will want to face the center fielder instead of Fielder or Cabrera.

If you can wait until the later rounds to snag him, that’s your best bet. If he starts getting talked about in the middle rounds, take him and reap the fantasy benefits.

Cameron Maybin

After already bouncing around in his short MLB career, it’s time for 24-year-old outfielder Cameron Maybin to have the breakout season everyone wants from him.

In 2011, his first season with the San Diego Padres, Maybin made a huge mark, with 82 runs scored and 40 stolen bases. If he can continue to build confidence in a lineup that offers little help offensively, he will be a great mid-round fantasy steal.

While there is plenty of risk, as there is nobody in the Padres lineup to prevent pitchers from pitching around Maybin, his base-stealing ability will discourage much of that.

Check back for more on the Major League Baseball as it comes, and check out Bleacher Report’s MLB Page to get your fill of all things baseball.

Follow @Donald_Wood

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Welcome to the very first edition of Starting Pitcher Weekly for 2012!

Throughout the season we’ll look at pressing issues like upcoming pitching match ups, two-start pitchers, waiver wire possibilities and injuries. 

But there will be plenty of time for that.  After all, baseball is grueling marathon of a season that can seem to run on forever at times, and there isn’t too much pressing in spring training when it comes to starting pitching. 

The guys in competition for the Royals fifth rotation spot aren’t getting drafted anyway… so who cares?

Instead today we’re going to discuss the tiers and overall selection strategy of starters for your draft.

In a standard 12 team league, roughly 75 starting pitchers are going to come off the board with selections ranging from first rounders to end of the draft fliers.  These pitchers create six distinct tiers just like we would have at any other position. 

Below is my view of the tiers of starting pitchers heading into draft season.  The tiers were developed through the use of dominance factor, which can be found at the following URL if you would like more information:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1094653-roto-fantasy-baseball-part-2-a-cant-miss-mathematical-approach-to-starting-pit

Tier 1: Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee

Tier 2: CC Sabathia, Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, David Price, Jared Weaver

Tier 3: Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, Brandon Beachy, Matt Cain, Matt Latos, Michael Pineda, Ian Kennedy, C.J. Wilson, Madison Bumgarner

Tier 4: Josh Johnson, Matt Moore, Matt Garza, Adam Wainwright, Cory Luebke, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Morrow, Chris Carpenter, Josh Beckett, Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Hudson

Tier 5: Ricky Romero, Ubaldo Jimenez, Max Scherzer, Colby Lewis, Tim Hudson, Jaime Garcia, Shaun Marcum, Jordan Zimmerman, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Daniel Bard, Derek Holland, Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana, Ted Lilly, Doug Fister

Tier 6: Gavin Floyd, Johnny Cueto, Ryan Dempster, Brandon McCarthy, Jhoulys Chacin, Bud Norris, Vance Worley, Scott Baker, John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Justin Masterson, Ricky Nolasco, Jeremy Hellickson, Alexi Ogando, Chad Billingsley, Jonathon Niese, Tim Stauffer, Mike Leake, Erick Bedard, Chris Capuano, Trevor Cahill, Ryan Vogelsong, Mike Minor, R.A. Dickey, Homer Bailey, Jonathan Sanchez

Now that we have a good starting layout of tiers, it’s time to talk about a winning starting pitcher draft strategy. 

Everyone needs to first understand how a tier system works in a draft.  The assumption is that through variability within a season, players within the same tier are more or less interchangeable. 

We’re drafting stats not names and at the end of the day Brandon Morrow and Matt Garza should give you pretty much the same amount of production regardless of which one you pick because they are both Tier 4 starters.

The second thing to pay attention to is tier availability.  Tier 1 has a total of four names and these guys go early, often times in the first round.  Obviously, an owner must sacrifice upper tier offensive production to acquire these players making them high risk selections.

Basically if he doesn’t win the Cy Young—you blew it with the pick.

However, you’ll notice that as we proceed through the tiers each level has more and more names until we reach Tier 6 which is overflowing with interchangeable arms.  With larger pools within a level comes increasing draft variability.

For instance in Tier 3 there are 12 players available.  These players will range from round three through round seven.  And based on our assumption that they are all basically the same player, the round seven selections will be the steals of the draft for that tier.

The same thing can be said for any of the levels.  To maximize the value of your draft day selections, avoid being the first owner to jump into a pitching tier.  The players left at the end of the level are just as good, and your offense will get a major boost in the rounds in between.

At the end of the day, selecting a stellar pitching staff really isn’t that difficult.  It just requires a bit of patience and the discipline to stick to your plan.  Follow this simple strategy and you’ll be off to a great start for league bragging rights this coming season.

Have a great season!  Until Next week…

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Every year, without skipping a beat, a fantasy baseball manager will find disappointment in his early first or second round pick. When drafting, consistency is the key but it is easy to be swayed by the flashy numbers.

A bust is not a player you expect to succumb to regression due to age as he enters the uncomfortable “past his prime” stage of his career. Any decent fantasy baseball owner expects this when drafting. A bust, as I will predict, are players on the rise that have become so popular, that their expectations far exceed their potential outcome.

Here are players from each division who are sure to upset the willing manager that drafts them.

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With the possibility of Miguel Cabrera missing Opening Day due to an orbital bone fracture, fantasy owners at the top of drafts must ask one vital question:

Should I care that one of baseball’s most destructive forces might miss a few games so early in the season?

The short answer is yes…and no.

With the move to third base to accommodate Prince Fielder’s arrival to Detroit, a first base/third base-eligible Cabrera (projections: 33 HR, 109 RBI, 112 runs, .327 average) holds slightly greater value than Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki.

But that’s a statement contingent on Miggy playing 150 or more games. With a range of only 135-149 (factoring in regular days off), Cabrera might not garner enough at-bats to overcome the 155-game projections of Pujols, Kemp, Braun, Tulo and Bautista. The razor-thin margins separating the Round 1 elite just aren’t that profound.

Bottom line: If Miggy isn’t a lock to return for Opening Day by March 28—the day the Athletics and Mariners start the season in Japan—I would drop him to the three-to-six range with little remorse.

On the flip side, if Cabrera (30 HR, 105 RBI, 111 runs, .344 BA in 2011) starts taking live batting practice before March 28, he’d automatically return to the top spot in mixed- and AL-only league rankings. Lucky for Tigers and fantasy fans everywhere, Miggy was wearing sunglasses for the bad hop of all bad hops.

Although, Tony Kubek might disagree with that hyperbolic assessment. (Old World Series joke wasted on young readers.)

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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