Kuzul

A couple days ago, we went over five potential fantasy baseball busts for 2012. Today we’ll take a look at the opposite side of the spectrum and discuss five sleepers to highlight on your cheat sheets on draft day. 

It’s easy to find consistent production in the early rounds of the draft. Ask any fantasy veteran and they will tell you the key to a winning season hinges on making the most out of your mid-to-late round picks.

Last year, teams that drafted Curtis Granderson in Round 8, Asdrubal Cabrera in Round 12 or Kyle Farnsworth in Round 14 were already a leg up on the rest of the competition to start the season.

Here are this year’s diamonds in the rough. 

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Here’s the 2012 LestersLegends First-Base Rankings for AL-Only Leagues.

1.  Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: Cabrera is entering the 2012 season in a better place than he was last year. His personal issues did not affect his play. Adding Prince Fielder makes him even more dangerous. What sets Cabrera apart from Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez is his switch to third base.

2. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The move to the American League does not concern me. He can get a day off at DH from time to time. There is an adjustment when switching leagues, but I think the American League pitchers are going to be the ones that need adjusting in this case.

3. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were disappointing last year, but that wasn’t on A-Gone. He was right in line with Cabrera and Pujols in most categories. He finished first in the AL in RBI and that was with Carl Crawford having a down year. I expect him to bounce back, which could help Gonzalez win the RBI title.

4. Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers:  Pairs with Cabrera to form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. Not an ideal ballpark, but Prince has big power.

5. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: Tex has turned into a Ryan Howard of sorts (minus the strikeouts). You know he’s going to give you ample HRs (37.0 average since joining the Yankees) and RBI (113.7 average since joining the Yankees), but you have to deal with his falling batting average (.292 to .256 to .248). I still think he’s more likely to bounce back in that department than not.

6. Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers: Napoli caught fire in July last year and remained hot through the World Series. He hit .320 with 30 HRs. With first base and catcher eligibility, he’s a valuable option.

7. Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals: He came in with huge expectations and delivered posting a .293-66-19-78-11 line. Playing in KC could limit his run and RBI totals, but the future is bright for this guy.

8. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians: He’s young and has plenty to improve on (.239 average), but he has  big-time power (27 HRs last year) and with 1B-C eligibility, he gets a boost in value.

9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: I’m not sure if this guy ages. He’ll turn 36 this year and you would think his decline would have begun, but he is coming off back-to-back .300-plus, 30-plus HR, 100-plus RBI seasons.

10. Michael Young, Texas Rangers:  The dude doesn’t age or slow down. You’re not going to get home runs from him, but expect a .300-plus average and a solid number of runs and RBI.

11.  Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Trumbo will take a look at third base and DH duties to get him at-bats as he’s a man without a position right now. He answered the call last year with 29 HRs. As long as his foot doesn’t keep him out, he should be productive.

12.  Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays:  He didn’t return to his ridiculous .305-93-35-114-1 line that he posted in 2009, but his 2011 line of .251-56-26-87-1 was a solid enough improvement over 2010 (.237-57-23-72-0). He’s basically a two-category player (HR, RBI), which is fine if you can address the other categories elsewhere.

Also check out:

• 2012 Fantasy Baseball First-Base Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting-Pitcher Rankings
• Additional 2012 Fantasy Baseball First-Base Options
• 2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

To counterbalance our own Spring Training positional rankings for starting pitchers, beginning with the Top 40 and then secondary Top 40 (Nos. 41-80), here are the current average draft positional values at Mock Draft Central.

Rounds 1-4

Justin Verlander, Tigers (7th overall)
Roy Halladay, Phillies (15th overall)
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (17th overall)
Cliff Lee, Phillies (21st overall)
Tim Lincecum, Giants (25th overall)
Felix Hernandez, Mariners (28th overall)
CC Sabathia, Yankees (29th overall)
Cole Hamels, Phillies (30th overall)
Jered Weaver, Angels (34th overall)
David Price, Rays (36th overall)
Dan Haren, Angels (42nd overall)
Zack Greinke, Brewers (45th overall)
Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (46th overall)

Breakdown

1. It’s hardly a shock that Verlander and Halladay were the first ones off most boards. Verlander is coming off a Cy Young/MVP season—setting the bar impossibly high—and Halladay has been the most dominant real-world and fantasy pitcher over the last five seasons.

2. Kershaw is my top-ranked pitcher in mixed roto leagues, so obviously, I would support a No. 17 value. However, it’s imperative that prepared fantasy owners have a game plan for the later rounds, if they’re going to splurge on a high-end pitcher in the first three picks. My general rule for the first eight rounds of 12-team drafts: Six formidable hitters and two starting pitchers with a high capacity for strikeouts and WHIP.

3. I would be thrilled to land either Hamels or Weaver midway through Round 3, provided they’re the ace of the fantasy rotation. As stated above, it’s wonderful to have elite pitching early on, but the later rounds are full of great values with starting pitching—not the case for third base, shortstop or leagues that require five starting outfield spots.

4. To be honest, I would rather draft a hitter at 46, or a pitcher like Matt Cain, Jon Lester or Ian Kennedy. But I’m nitpicking here.

Rounds 5-8

Jon Lester, Red Sox (50th overall)
Matt Cain, Giants (59th overall)
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (65th overall)
James Shields, Rays (66th overall)
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks (69th overall)
Mat Latos, Reds (70th overall)
Madison Bumgarner, Giants (74th overall)
C.J. Wilson, Rangers (83rd overall)
Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks (85th overall)
Ricky Romero, Blue Jays (86th overall)
Josh Beckett, Red Sox (90th overall)
Tommy Hanson, Braves (92nd overall)

Breakdown

1. I realize Strasburg is only 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery, but when fully healthy, his track record for excellence in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, K/9, BB/9—and any other stat you can find—resembles that of a top-5 pitcher. In other words, I would happily risk a Round 6 pick for a potential monster.

2. Matt Cain also has stellar value in the middle rounds. In six full seasons with the Giants, he’s had very few peaks and valleys—a quality prized by roto-league gurus. Cain’s only drawback is he has yet to earn 15 victories in a given year. That hurdle will hopefully be cleared in 2012.

3. It shouldn’t hurt Wilson’s cause that he signed with the deep and talented Angels, giving him a reasonable chance to match last year’s 16 wins, 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts. And yet, the 83rd pick may be a half-round too high, especially with Matt Garza, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Pineda and Adam Wainwright still available for public consumption. All in all, not too bad.

Rounds 9-12

Michael Pineda, Yankees (98th overall)
Josh Johnson, Marlins (100th overall)
Matt Moore, Rays (104th overall)
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (107th overall)
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (108th overall)
Matt Garza, Cubs (109th overall)
Johnny Cueto, Reds (112th overall)
Brandon Beachy, Braves (114th overall)
Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (117th overall)
Yu Darvish, Rangers (124th overall)
Chris Carpenter, Cardinals (125th overall)
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (127th overall)
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins (129th overall)
Cory Luebke, Padres (135th overall)
Tim Hudson, Braves (136th overall)

Breakdown

1. Hellickson and Luebke stand as ideal values for Round 11 and 12, respectively. The only aspects precluding Hellickson from greatness are 1) more major-league seasoning, and 2) cutting down on walks (it seems that No. 1 will eventually take care of No. 2). As for Luebke, he has thrown more strikeouts than innings at nearly every level of pro ball. He could easily be the Padres’ ace by season’s end.

2. As mentioned in the Top 40 starters preview, Wainwright may only be on a short-term respite from baseball’s elite pitchers. When fully healthy, he’s a top-10 fantasy talent and thus, a superb flier pick anywhere past 100. The hype for Darvish will be high throughout March, not unlike that of Daisuke Matsuzaka in his first year with the Red Sox. But I’m OK with that, since Darvish had a long-standing track record of ERA, WHIP and strikeout excellence in Japan. Let’s hope the adjustment period to North and South American hitters is relatively quick.

3. Zimmermann has the physical tools to be a formidable fantasy pitcher, but 117th may be 10-15 slots too high. He likely needs more time to unlock his vast potential.

Rounds 13-16

Shaun Marcum, Brewers (146th overall)
Max Scherzer, Tigers (147th overall)
Ervin Santana, Angels (150th overall)
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians (154th overall)
Derek Holland, Rangers (167th overall)
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros (170th overall)
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees (172nd overall)
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals (177th overall)
Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks (179th overall)
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays (180th overall)
Doug Fister, Tigers (185th overall)
John Danks, White Sox (191st overall)

Breakdown

1. Holland has solid long-term prospects, but I’m not buying a guy with a 1.35 WHIP for 16 wins in consecutive seasons. Yes, he’ll get a ton of run support, but his range for the year is probably 13-15 victories. That said, Round 14 is decent value.

2. I would dance a 20-minute jig around my condo upon landing Jimenez at some point in Round 13. He’s only two years removed from a dominant campaign with the Rockies (19 wins, 2.88 ERA, 214 strikeouts, 1.16 WHIP) and was traded to a club (the Indians) that should contend for the second AL wild-card spot. Unless Jimenez has a dead arm or a balky elbow, he’s a good bet to recapture his old mojo.

3. A highly touted prospect with the Athletics, Cahill has plenty of time to right the ship with his new team, the Diamondbacks. First order of business: Limiting his walks. That alone should satisfy the owners who draft Cahill in Round 15.

4. If Fister resembles anything close to last year’s production with the Tigers (8 wins in 11 starts, 1.79 ERA, 57 strikeouts in 70 innings, 0.84 WHIP), his Round 16 acquisition would classify as an absolute heist. Fister is the 2012 version of the ultimate no-brainer flier pick!

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Several players, like Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury, had huge years in 2011, leading many fantasy teams to league championships.

But, don’t count on these guys to put up similar numbers in 2012.

Some players simply aren’t capable of matching last season’s production again.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t draft them. It just means you shouldn’t draft them as high as they are being projected.

Let’s take a look at five of these players now.

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When looking at the National League second base options, you almost feel like you are deprived of the best talent, don’t you?  It’s a running trend (we felt the same way when looking at the NL first baseman, which you can view by clicking here).  This time it is three best options who reside in the AL, as well as the most promising youngsters.  What is there actually to draft in the NL?  Let’s take a look:

1. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
2. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
3. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
4. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
5. Neil Walker – Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Aaron Hill – Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Danny Espinosa – Washington Nationals
8. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros
9. Ryan Roberts – Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Daniel Murphy – New York Mets
11. Orlando Hudson – San Diego Padres
12. Mark Ellis – Los Angeles Dodgers

Thoughts:

• I am already on record about not being very high on Neil Walker (click here for my thoughts on him).  However, when you are talking about an NL-only format, those thoughts have to be thrown completely out the window.  The position is relatively weak, especially when you throw in the injury risk of Rickie Weeks and the knee troubles of Chase Utley.  Considering what else is available, Walker suddenly looks like one of the better options.
• Speaking of Utley, we recently looked at him as well (click here to view).  The knee injury could be a consistent issue for the rest of his career, and at 33-years old, he already is showing that he’s not the player that he once was.  He’s got to be viewed as an incredible risk, though one that does come with a potentially great reward.
• It remains to be seen if Daniel Murphy can both stay healthy and show the baseball IQ required to be the Mets regular second baseman for 2012.  While he’ll open the year with the job (at least it appears that way), Justin Turner could easily step in, as could the two youngsters in the minor leagues (Jordany Valdespin or Reese Havens).  I wouldn’t invest too heavily in Murphy, as there’s a good chance he doesn’t finish the year as a starter.
• Danny Espinosa offers speed, power and a propensity to strikeout.  It’s the latter that is a huge issue, as it destroys his ability to hit for a viable average.  In 676 Major League AB, he’s hit a paltry .232, and there unfortunately isn’t much reason for optimism that he can rectify the situation.  Barring a dramatic turnaround, he’s not going to be anything but a mid-level option.

Make sure to check out all of our 2012 rankings:

• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Outfielders: 1-20 | 21-40

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Here’s the first dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 1 pick in a 12-team mixed roto league, specifically working off the Average Draft Position report from our friends at Mock Draft Central. It goes without saying: It’s imperative to nail the first three picks (1, 24, 25), and for the sake of brevity, we’ll stop at Round 17:

Round 1, Pick 1 overall: Motive: Best overall player

First option: 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Second option: 1B Albert Pujols, Angels

Third option: OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers

Round 2, Pick 24 overall: Motive: Best outfielder or starting pitcher

First option: OF Mike Stanton, Marlins

Second option: SP Jered Weaver, Angels

Third option: SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Round 3, Pick 25 overall: Motive: Best starting pitcher or top prospect available

First option: SP Jered Weaver, Angels

Second option: OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Third option: SP Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Round 4, Pick 48 overall: Motive: Best corner infielder or starting pitcher

First option: 1B Eric Hosmer, Royals

Second option: SP Matt Cain, Giants

Third option: 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays

Round 5, Pick 49: Motive: Best third baseman or starting pitcher

First option: 3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays

Second option: SP Matt Cain, Giants

Third option: OF Michael Bourn, Braves

Round 6, Pick 72 overall: Motive: Best middle infielder or catching prospect

First option: SS Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians

Second option: 2B Rickie Weeks, Brewers

Third option: C Joe Mauer, Twins

Round 7, Pick 73 overall: Motive: Best middle infielder

First option: 2B Rickie Weeks, Brewers

Second option: 2B Chase Utley, Phillies

Third option: C Joe Mauer, Twins

Round 8, Pick 96 overall: Motive: Outfielder with greatest upside

First option: OF Jason Heyward, Braves

Second option: OF Jayson Werth, Nationals

Third option: OF Cameron Maybin, Padres

Round 9, Pick 97 overall: Motive: Best pitcher or outfielder available

First option: SP Matt Garza, Rays

Second option: OF Jayson Werth, Nationals

Third option: SP Josh Johnson, Marlins

Round 10, Pick 120 overall: Motive: Best outfielder or high-end pitcher available

First option: OF Chris Young, Diamondbacks

Second option: SP Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Third option: OF Nick Markakis, Orioles

Round 11, Pick 121: Motive: Best player available

First option: SP Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Second option: SP Jeremy Hellickson, Rays

Third option: OF Nick Markakis, Orioles

Round 12, Pick 144: Motive: Best starting pitcher or middle infielder

First option: SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians

Second option: SP Max Scherzer, Tigers

Third option: SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

Round 13, Pick 145: Motive: Best catcher or starting pitcher available

First option: C Jesus Montero, Mariners

Second option: SP Max Scherzer, Tigers

Third option: SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

Round 14, Pick 168: Motive: Best starting pitcher or speed-power hitting option

First option: SP Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Second option: 2B/3B Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks

Third option: SP Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Round 15, Pick 169: Motive: Best closer available

First option: RP Huston Street, Padres

Second option: RP Joakim Soria, Royals

Third option: RP Joe Nathan, Rangers

Round 16, Pick 192: Motive: Best player available

First option: 2B/3B Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks

Second option: OF Josh Willingham, Twins

Third option: 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals

Round 17, Pick 193: Motive: Best closer or power-hitting prospect

First option: RP Javy Guerra, Dodgers

Second option: OF Josh Willingham, Twins

Third option: 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

To counterbalance our own Spring Training positional rankings for Catcher and First Base or Second Base and Shortstop, here are the current Average Draft Positional rankings at Mock Draft Central.

Catchers
Carlos Santana, Indians (35th overall)
Mike Napoli, Rangers (45th overall)
Brian McCann, Braves (50th overall)
Buster Posey, Giants (58th overall)
Joe Mauer, Twins (81st overall)
Matt Wieters, Orioles (95th overall)
Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (102nd overall)
Alex Avila, Tigers (111th overall)
Yadier Molina, Cardinals (177th overall)
J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays (180th overall)
Wilson Ramos, Nationals (214th overall)
Geovany Soto, Cubs (245th overall)

First Base
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (2nd overall)
Albert Pujols, Angels (3rd overall)
Joey Votto, Reds (10th overall)
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox (11th overall)
Prince Fielder, Tigers (16th overall)
Mark Teixeira, Yankees (27th overall)
Carlos Santana, Indians (35th overall)
Mike Napoli, Rangers (45th overall)
Paul Konerko, White Sox (49th overall)
Eric Hosmer, Royals (52nd overall)
Michael Morse, Nationals (82nd overall)
Freddie Freeman, Braves (118th overall)
Mark Trumbo, Angels (138th overall)
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (140th overall)
Adam Lind, Blue Jays (143rd overall)
Justin Morneau, Twins (155th overall)
Ryan Howard, Phillies (159th overall)
Ike Davis, Mets (176th overall)
Gaby Sanchez, Marlins (196th overall)
Kendrys Morales, Angels (220th overall)
Carlos Pena, Rays (222nd overall)
Justin Smoak, Mariners (270th overall)

Second Base
Robinson Cano, Yankees (12th overall)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (18th overall)
Ian Kinsler, Rangers (23rd overall)
Dan Uggla, Braves (54th overall)
Brandon Phillips, Reds (60th overall)
Chase Utley, Phillies (76th overall)
Ben Zobrist, Rays (77th overall)
Rickie Weeks, Brewers (78th overall)
Howard Kendrick, Angels (105th overall)
Dustin Ackley, Mariners (133rd overall)
Neil Walker, Pirates (137th overall)
Danny Espinosa, Nationals (145th overall)
Jemile Weeks, Athletics (149th overall)
Jason Kipnis, Indians (162nd overall)
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks (236th overall)

Shortstop
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (5th overall)
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (20th overall)
Jose Reyes, Marlins (22nd overall)
Starlin Castro, Cubs (41st overall)
Elvis Andrus, Rangers (44th overall)
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (74th overall)
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (89th overall)
Derek Jeter, Yankees (120th overall)
J.J. Hardy, Orioles (131st overall)
Dee Gordon, Dodgers (141st overall)
Erick Aybar, Angels (142nd overall)
Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks (148th overall)
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox (157th overall)
Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins (172nd overall)
Jhonny Peralta, Tigers (173rd overall)
Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays (211st overall)
Ian Desmond, Nationals (319th overall)
Marco Scutaro, Rockies (334th overall)

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the 2012 season nearing, many fantasy baseball owners are trying to pick up on any clues as to which young, late-round picks have the potential to breakout this season.

Fantasy owners know very well that championships are not won in the early rounds of a fantasy baseball draft. It is about how owners can find the diamonds in the rough that nobody is talking about in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft.

This slideshow will point out a young stud at each position that has the potential for a breakout season, and can lead your fantasy team to a championship.

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Major League Baseball definitely did not disappoint this year when it comes to buzz in the media. As fantasy owners, you may find yourselves in a familiar place; deciding what to make of these relatively over-hyped foreign prospects.

Most of the attention as been focused on Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers and Yoenis Cespedes of the Oakland Athletics.

Although I won’t get into Yu Darvish in this article, I will say that he seems to be a much better fit than the likes of Daisuke Matsuzaka was just a few years ago. I will however, explain to why you may be a better manager by ignoring the enticing Yoenis Cespedes.

Oakland A’s: Sure, Yoenis may be considered by many as one of the best talents to ever come from Cuba—but that may not matter much with what looks to be a very disappointing Oakland A’s lineup.

According to Yahoo Sports, the Athletics hit 114 home runs and scored 645 runs in 2011. This put them 12th in the American League in both categories. That doesn’t seem so bad, right?

It may, once you realize that that was before both Josh Willingham and David DeJesus left the club—players who together accounted for 39 homers and 129 runs. Hideki Matsui is also not expected to return.

This puts Yoenis in a lineup with the likes of Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Kurt Suzuki, and Seth Smith. Not exactly a lineup one would expect to produce. Almost certainly not a lineup that gives Cespedes an easy task of performing for fantasy owners.

The hype: Although this shouldn’t play a large role in the progression of a player, it almost always does. Fantasy owners often jump at the chance to draft the hottest new names, especially when they are foreign players we have not been able to watch. I know I did last year when I drafted Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but we’ll stop talking about that now.

As far as Cespedes goes, I think he looks the part of a good five-tool player in the right atmosphere. He’s just not a fantasy monster in my eyes. The hype he receives will surely prove to be more than his performance demands.

Transition: Once again, this is a seemingly small obstacle for a professional baseball player, but we have come to learn that the media is relentless when it comes to these cherished foreign talents—often providing a very uncomfortable transitional period.

Fortunately for Cespedes, the Oakland A’s are not in what I would call a media frenzy of a city. None the less, the attention he will see nationwide will prove to be overpowering and only hurt his chances at success in the MLB.

Draft Position: With the deceptive statistics fantasy owners find while researching Cespedes, many leagues will surely see him being drafted much earlier than what is deserving.

If you are anything like me and constantly run mock drafts, you may be persuaded to believe he is worth a mid-round pick. Keep in mind, not everybody will be looking at all aspects of what justifies a good fantasy player.

They will just see the stat line he had during his last season in Cuba (.333 AVG, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 89 R and 11 SB in just 90 games played).

The deceptive part of that stat line is simple: He did not play in the MLB. The level of competition in Cuba is nowhere near what he will soon face. We have seen this countless times with professional Japanese players who have disappointed fantasy managers.

Of course, if you find yourself in the late rounds of your league’s draft and Cespedes is available, take the chance if you must. Just don’t fall victim to the hype and draft Yoenis Cespedes until at least 200 players have been drafted. Every pick you make could prove to be an Achilles’ heel for your team, leaving you relying on the scarce waiver wire.

Food for thought: Matthew Berry—of ESPN—ranks Cespedes as No. 249 overall. In a 12 team league, he values Cespedes as a 20th round pick. Spot on if you ask me.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Chris Perez had a breakout year in 2011. 

After three seasons (two-and-a-half technically), Perez has established himself as the closer of the Cleveland Indians. Last season, Perez was 36/40 in save opportunities with a 3.32 ERA. 

While on the surface, 2011 looks like a tremendously perfect year for Chris Perez, it was anything but that.  First, his ERA and WHIP jumped from his previous year’s success. What was also strange was Perez’s inability to record strikeouts. 

After posting 61 Ks in 2010, he recorded only 39 in 2011.  The good news is we didn’t expect 61.  In fact, 2011 was more to the norm for Chris Perez, and if you overlook his great numbers in 2010, you’ll notice that he actually had a great season. 

At 26, Chris Perez is one of the younger closers with great years ahead of him.  He has a natural maturity to the game, and playing for Dave Duncan back in St. Louis will serve him well throughout his pitching career. 

Going into 2012, Perez is playing on a one-year year and hoping to sizzle in 2012 and get the big deal he deserves. 

While the Indians are a rebuilding team, they are also a young team with plenty of great players on it.  Even with all the problems they had last season, the Indians still managed 80 wins.  I believe with a healthy squad, the Indians can win between 82-85 games in 2012.  

The question on the minds of many are who is the real Chris Perez?  Has he peaked, or can he achieve 40-45 saves? 

As a straight fastball (94-95MPH) and slider pitcher, he doesn’t throw anything fancy and depends on hitting his spot and pitches to contact.  Contact closers aren’t my favorite, because it only takes one hit in a lot of cases to blow a save, and the more contact you can avoid, the better.

Perez should have a fine year, and in a perfect world with an 83- or 84-win Cleveland Indians team, Perez could achieve 40 saves.  Either way, the best years of Chris Perez are yet to be seen, and 2012 won’t even be there yet, but he should continue to get better.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections

38 Saves, 5 Wins, 2.98 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 40 Ks 

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis

Perez is just not one of my favorite closers in the draft, and there are many more closers with better value. 

He’s on a team that we just aren’t sure how well they will perform, and he himself has been inconsistent over the past couple of years.  His ADP has him going in the 17th round, and I think that is appropriate—maybe even a tad early.

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