Kuzul

Jordan Walden slammed onto the scene last season and made waves as the new closer for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  While his start was strong and secured the job for himself, his overall performance wasn’t as sweet. 

Walden finished with 32 saves in his rookie season, but 10 blown saves to shadow his otherwise solid numbers.  He notched 67 Ks in 60 innings and finished with a nice 2.98 ERA. 

So what is wrong with Walden?  I dunno.  Let’s see—he’s a flamethrower, he pitches for the Angels (and that is a good thing) and he’s young.   

The biggest problems that Walden had last season were confidence and control.  As a rookie, confidence is half the battle, and when you lose confidence in yourself or in a pitch, that is bad for closers. 

Walden has a lights-out 98 MPH fastball, but controlling is another issue.  His BB/9 was uncomfortably high for a closer at 3.88. In fact, he walked batters in six of his 10 blown saves.  None of this is terrible news for Walden.  Let’s face it—he was a rookie, and he learned.  

I fully expect Walden to further mature in the 2012 season.  He should accrue more confidence and hopefully throw his changeup more.  Right now it doesn’t locate the best, but complementing his fastball with a changeup would make Walden absolutely dominating. 

With the team the Angels put together, Walden is an instant closer choice as a tier-two closer for any fantasy team.  While there is risk with Walden, manager Mike Scioscia is committed to his closer, and he showed that last year. 

If I owned Walden, I’d stay committed as well.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections

37 Saves, 5 Wins, 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 72 Ks 

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis

With an ADP around 157, Walden looks like a great value you pick in the 13th round.  However, It would entirely depend on who is available.

As much as I like Walden, I don’t like closers about whom we are “unsure.”  I’d let Walden go in the 13th, and if he is around in the 15th round and you really want a closer, take him there.

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Last year, among all the messes that the Dodgers organization was dealing with, one of them was their closer. 

The Dodgers opened the season with Broxton, who failed badly.  Then they tried several replacements like Kenley Jansen and others.  When Jansen hit the DL, they brought up Javy Guerra, and the rest is history. 

While I feel that Kenley Jansen is the future closer for the Dodgers, right now he is unreliable because of injury issues related to an irregular heart beat.  Jansen will be the setup man opening day.  In fact, the Dodgers bullpen is deep with veteran relief pitchers who should do well and keep Guerra in line for plenty of saves. 

Javy Guerra has limited experience as a closer. Last season, he notched 21 saves in 23 opportunities. He pitched in 47 games for the Dodgers in 2011, and that is the total for his career. 

Jumping on Javy Guerra from a fantasy perspective could be a bit dangerous, since he has yet to face normal closer adversary or close for an entire season.  That being said, the kid has good stuff. 

While Guerra did close in the minors, he has starter stuff.  He comes at hitters with a 95 MPH fastball, slider, changeup and curveball.  His out pitches are the changeup and curveball. 

While all of his pitches are average, he got enough to get three outs in the ninth.  His main problems will be control (3.47 BB/9) and being tested in stressful situations. 

Guerra walked 18 batters in less than 47 innings in 2011.  While that isn’t horrible, it’s not good either.  Also, he isn’t battle-tested, and 2012 will be another crazy year for the Dodgers, with the sale of the team yet to be completed.

The positives on Guerra are very good.  He did a great job closing in 2011 and has secured the job for 2012.  At 26, he is young and healthy and shouldn’t have any injury issues for the coming season.  He’s got a great track record through the minors and into the majors. 

If Guerra can stay focused and healthy, he will have a great season.  If not, Mattingly can put Jansen in at any time. 

Guerra will be a bargain no matter where he is drafted, so if you decide to draft him, make him a tier-three closer for your team and have two suitable closers already drafted.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections

35 Saves, 6 Wins, 2.78 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 62 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis

Javy Guerra’s ADP is a staggering 283 (24th round).  He is a steal at that point. 

I would start targeting Guerra around Round 19 or 20.  If he is the best player available that meets your needs, draft him. 

Beware that with the craziness of the Dodgers, he might not be the closer come season’s end—either he will get traded or lose the job outright.

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Let’s not joke.  J.J. Putz had an amazing comeback year in 2011, notching 45 saves for the well-built and oiled Arizona Diamondbacks team. 

He even did that while missing most of July on the DL, which we have become accustomed to with J.J. Putz. Even more amazing, he put up 21 saves between August and September. 

Everything about 2011 was amazing—his 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a K/9 over 9!  Putz was one of the top closers in baseball for 2011. 

Enter 2012, and let’s get back to reality.  Putz is a good closer, but his career has been plagued with injury and inconsistency.  In his nine-year career, Putz has only reached 70 appearances one, and more than 60 appearances five times. 

He is also 35, which is a tough year for pitchers to hit.  Their stuff can certainly start to fade beyond 35.

So what do with J.J. Putz?  Do you expect a repeat of 2011 or something closer to his actual career?

Let’s start with the Diamondbacks.  They are a very good young team poised for a playoff run.  They have a solid, though shaky rotation led by Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and the newly acquired Trevor Cahill. 

Kennedy pitched amazingly last season, but chances of him repeating that performance are not good. 

Still, the rotation of the Diamondbacks will get many leads to the bullpen.  In front of Putz, he has several good veteran relievers including Takashi Saito, Brad Zeigler and David Hernandez.  All that bodes well for Putz.

As for the offense, it is shady.  After Upton and Montero, where will the hits come from?  Chris Young, Jason Kubel, Stephen Drew?  While the Diamondbacks have a sound offense, they’re going to suffer scoring droughts.

My concerns with Putz deal with his health.  If his arm “isn’t right,” he won’t do well.  Last year, Putz changed his pitching style a bit.  He threw more fastballs and less sliders, and he continued to abuse hitters with his splitter. 

His fastball tops out at 95 MPH, which is hittable by major league standards.  What he did so well in 2011 was hit his spots with his slider and throw a great splitter.  So, if you draft Putz in 2012, you have to hope for all that to play out in your favor again—I can tell you now, chances are slim. 

The Closer Report 2012 Projections

32 Saves, 3 Wins, 3.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 57 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis

J.J. Putz has an ADP around 133, which means if you want to draft him, you better get him by round 12.  I’ll pass on that. 

At 35 and coming off a huge season, Putz is overvalued.  My recommendation is to pass on Putz that early.  If he is around in the 17th or 18th round take a chance, but otherwise you are taking on a closer who is injury-prone and hasn’t had two great back-to-back seasons since 2006-2007.

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Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all time.  Any analysis I do of Rivera will open with that statement. 

However, he not the most dominating closer in MLB right now. Last season, I projected Rivera to save 30 games, and he pumped out 44. 

This was due to unexpected success by the Yankees and the failure of the American League East to contain them.  Rivera was 16/20 in saves against his own division, which the Yankees weren’t predicted to win.  He was also 100-percent healthy in 2011, and that was a tiny bit of a surprise. 

I might be a Yankee hater, but I’m not a Rivera hater.  He’s a God among men when it comes to closers. 

I just don’t see how at 42 he can continue to dominate American League hitters with one pitch, the cutter.  The last two seasons he’s combined for 10 blown saves, which is equal to his previous four seasons combined.  His ERA, while still amazingly low, has steadily increased each of the past three years. 

So what does that all mean?  Nothing.  It is impossible to predict anything but the best for Mariano Rivera, but the better question is, when will a collapse, big or small, occur? 

With that risk in mind, I’ve kept my expectations somewhat low for Rivera.  While he easily can break 40 saves, my projections have him around 35.

If this is Rivera’s last season, he could put it all on the table and be awesome.  It’s up to the fantasy manager to take that small but ever-present risk.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections

35 Saves, 6 Wins, 2.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 53 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis

Right now, Rivera is going where he is expected, around Round 8. 

I wouldn’t touch him till round 11 or 12.  There is much more value later in the draft, and it’s probably better to take a SP or a position player in rounds 7-9 than to take a chance on Rivera.  It’s not a bad pick to take him there, just realize you are taking on a 42-year-old risk.

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Joel Hanrahan had an amazing break out season in 2011.  He became the closer I expected him to be years before in Washington.  He put up 40 saves on historically one of the worst teams in MLB.  He also put up a career low ERA of 1.83 and his WHIP was also a career low of 1.05. 

Was this a lucky year for Hanrahan or is it a change that will stick?  I believe it will stick.  Hanrahan’s problems before 2011 had to do with his confidence in his fastball.  Hanrahan is a classic fastball/slider closer, and he has a great slider with tremendous movement. 

He also has a fastball that tops out at 98-99 MPH.  Before 2011, Hanrahan threw his slider twice as much as he did in 2011, and he even worked in an occassional change-up.  In 2011, he eliminated the change-up and threw his slider a lot less, and that made for great results.

First off, his fastball got better.  In 2010, his fastball averaged 96 MPH.  In 2011, it jumped to 97.1.  He threw his slider half as much and the results were more window shopping strikeouts on hitters expecting the slider and more late swings for ground balls or lazy pop ups.  National League hitters just never adjusted to the new Hanrahan, and he had insane success.

Will that success continue to 2012?  Yes, but beware that hitters now understand that he is throwing his fastball much more often and then will be prepared for that.  With that being said, if it remains around 98 MPH, then who cares?  Here it is, hit it if you can. 

The only thing that will slow down Hanrahan, besides some luck, is the Pirates.  They played amazing baseball for their standards in 2011, and I’m hard-pressed to see it again in 2012.  That means fewer wins, therefore fewer save opportunities for Hanrahan. 

Now that being said, the Pirates have made several additions to both their offense and pitching that should keep them around 72-75 wins. It’s just a matter of how well the team gels and how well guys like Burnett, Bedard and Correia end up pitching.

As far as fantasy owners are concerned:

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 35 Sv – 4 Wins – 2.86 ERA – 1.19 WHIP – 65 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Hanrahan’s ADP has him sitting at 126, which is Round 11.  He is an intriguing pick at that spot, but I would not go for him that early.  Getting the Pirates closer dictates that you wait until at the very least the 14th or 15th round to grab him. 

In the 11th round, fantasy managers will have plenty of options for a closer that has more career success and is on a better team.  Don’t just draft Hanrahan because he put up big numbers in 2011, look at the big picture.

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It would be misleading to characterize second base as a position of scarcity in 2012.

Yes, there are no certifiable facsimiles of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips or Dan Uggla after the first 60 picks of a 12-team, mixed-league draft.

But the entire Top 30 list is also chock-full of 25-and-under potential dynamos (Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Gordon Beckham) and veteran stalwarts (Aaron Hill, Neil Walker, Kelly Johnson, Marco Scutaro, Sean Rodriguez) who are still in their prime years—and could break out with just a little good fortune, here and there.

1. Robinson Cano, Yankees 
Skinny: A lead-pipe cinch for 25 HRs/100 runs/105 RBIs/.305 BA over the next five seasons.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Skinny: The reasonable choice for fantasy owners who value power, speed AND high batting average.

3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
Skinny: My personal favorite for this position—and that was before he racked up 121 runs last season.

4. Dan Uggla, Braves
Skinny: Fantasy owners in Round 4 are praying for 30 homers…and anything above .260 in hitting. 

5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
Skinny: Let’s assume his 2010 numbers (29 HRs/83 RBIs/11 steals) are a baseline measure of production.

6. Chase Utley, Phillies
Skinny: A reputation pick here, and one that might look ambitious with Ryan Howard sidelined for a while.

7. Ben Zobrist, Rays
Skinny: The quietest 20-HR/100-run/20-steal potential of all middle infielders…and Big Z has OF eligibility.

8. Brandon Phillips, Reds
Skinny: A top-7 candidate for all five categories. Just don’t expect career marks in HRs or RBIs.

9. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
Skinny: Don’t be surprised if Roberts passes the 20-20 threshold at age 31. A great addition at Round 12.

10. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
Skinny: Ackley, who possesses the highest upside of anyone outside the top 8, has 15-40-.310 potential.

11. Howard Kendrick, Angels
Skinny: A slightly unfair ranking, given his solid 2011 campaign. Needs to crack 70 RBIs this season.

12. Jason Kipnis, Indians
Skinny: Kipnis is more Pedroia or Phillips than Uggla or Utley. Either way, he’s a long-term keeper.

13. Jemile Weeks, Athletics
Skinny: A dark-horse candidate for 85 runs/.310 average at age 25. Power numbers may never be there.

14. Marco Scutaro, Rockies
Skinny: Scutaro’s value will get a nice bounce around April 10, when he secures 2B/SS eligibility.

15. Neil Walker, Pirates
Skinny: The wild swings in batting average and run production can be frustrating. Don’t reach on Draft Day. 

16. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays
Skinny: Two full seasons of middling batting average have diluted Johnson’s respectable power potential.

17. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
Skinny: Beckham has too many physical gifts to be this average in his prime. A solid late-round flier.

18. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
Skinny: Went on a hitting tear last year after being traded…but the odds of batting .300 for the season are long.

19. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
Skinny: Anything above a pedestrian batting average would boost him into the top 15—he’s that close.

20. Sean Rodriguez, Rays
Skinny: The 2B-SS-3B versatility opens doors for S-Rod. Can he be a steady 15-15 producer?

21. Jose Altuve, Astros
Skinny: A late-season find for the anemic Astros in 2011. Can he amass 30-35 steals in Year 2 of his development?

22. Ryan Raburn, Tigers
Skinny: Raburn needs a hot start to ward off slick fielders Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago at the 4-spot.

23. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
Skinny: Could make a modest leap in this countdown with a productive spring. Intriguing prospect.

24. Daniel Murphy, Mets
Skinny: An under-the-radar talent who’ll bring modest value to all five categories—especially hitting.

25. Omar Infante, Marlins
Skinny: Expect a noticeable bump in runs…and then hope the versatile Infante flirts with .300 again.

26. Brian Roberts, Orioles
Skinny: In the realm of minor miracles, I’d be thrilled with 10 HRs, 75 runs and 20 steals.

27. Mark Ellis, Dodgers
Skinny: Ellis has 15-15 potential in the Senior Circuit, even at the ripened age of 34.

28. Orlando Hudson, Padres
Skinny: A nice deep-sleeper option for steals and runs—if the Padres get aggressive on the basepaths.

29. Mike Aviles, Red Sox
Skinny: The preferred fantasy placeholder over Nick Punto, while Jose Iglesias gets more seasoning in the minors.

30a. Darwin Barney, Cubs
Skinny: A last-round sleeper for the 2B/SS slot in NL-only and 14-team mixed leagues.

30b. Justin Turner, Mets
Skinny: Good minor-league numbers suggest a mini-breakout in the bigs. Could rise up the ranks during Grapefruit League play.

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This one can get a bit sensitive and touchy.

I believe that Joe Nathan is hands down one of the greatest closers. 

When healthy, he can be one of the most dominating forces, with a lethal fastball that he locates well and a slider and curveball to compliment it. 

The reason that this analysis can get sensitive is because even I’ve lost faith in him. 

Nathan came back last year for the Minnesota Twins and looked uncomfortable.  He opened the season as the Twins closer, but quickly lost the job after only three saves.  He spent most of June on the DL and finally got the closer job back in mid-July. 

He notched 11 saves from July 16th through the rest of the season. 

The most important part of last season to look at is from mid-July till the end of the season.  Nathan was playing for a contract and to prove to himself and everyone else that he was back. 

Before he regained the closer role, his ERA stood at 5.56.  His numbers looked alright.  He recorded 21 of 43 strikeouts in the time period and dropped his ERA down to 4.84. Still, Nathan wasn’t dominant.  His fastball lost some juice and his curveball isn’t breaking the same. 

At 36, Nathan is entering the twilight of his career.  His velocity is slowing down and, therefore, so is his effectiveness.  I think the Rangers are taking a considerable chance with Nathan as their closer. 

Don’t  get me wrong on my analysis, Nathan could have a great season for the Rangers.  He will certainly get plenty of save chances. 

The question is, can he still get the job done? Are you willing to risk your fantasy team on a closer like Nathan?  I guess it all depends where you draft him. 

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 32 Sv – 2 Wins – 3.45 ERA – 1.22 WHIP – 72 Ks 

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Nathan is being drafted higher than I expected, at a ADP of 184.  That is ahead of Jason Motte and Huston Street. 

In my eyes, that is ridiculous. 

Granted, it’s the sixteenth round and there is a whole lot of risk in that round, I just wouldn’t chance picking Joe Nathan until round 18 or 19.  There are healthy, better closers to pick over the aging Nathan.

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Every year there are sleepers that get so much hype they become overvalued. This year that list includes rookies Matt Moore and Bryce Harper and second-year men Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings and Eric Hosmer.

In this piece I will try to convince you that you should wait for someone like Freddie Freeman that will give you similar stats instead of overpaying for Eric Hosmer.

I like Hosmer as much as the next guy. He helped me claim a fantasy baseball championship last year. He was Baseball America’s eighth-ranked prospect heading into 2011 and didn’t disappoint when he was promoted in early May. The 22-year-old hit .293 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 523 at-bats.

I think his price tag (ADP of 53 at Mock Draft Central) is high for a first baseman that isn’t going to hit more than 25 home runs. Hosmer never hit more than 20 home runs in the minors, he hits more ground balls than fly balls (1.04 GB/FB in ’11) and he had an inflated 10.1 percent HR/FB ratio.

A whole 67 picks later, you can draft Freddie Freeman. Despite starting out slow (.217 average and three home runs through May 6), the 22-year-old finished the season with a .282 average, 21 home runs and 76 RBIs. I expect Freeman to have an average closer to .300 in 2012. From May 1 on, his average was .294 and he was a career .301 hitter in the minors.

Like Hosmer, I don’t expect Freeman to hit more than 25 home runs in 2012. He is more of a gap hitter at this stage in his career, but those doubles will start turning into more and more home runs for the 6’5″ lefty as he fills out his frame.

Let’s look at some 2011 stats:

Batting Average

Hosmer: .293

Freeman: .282

At-Bats Per Home Run

Hosmer: 27.5

Freeman: 27.2

OPS

Hosmer: .799

Freeman: .795

I’m not saying that Freeman will have the better season in 2012. In fact, I would take Hosmer over Freeman if I had to choose between the two. He hits in the middle of the Royals‘ lineup which gives him more run and RBI potential. Also, his ability to swipe a sneaky 10-plus bags is a nice thing to have from a first baseman.

I’m just saying there’s no way that six rounds should separate the two. In a recent mock auction draft I participated in, Hosmer went for $26 and Freeman went for $10. Ridiculous.

Be smart and don’t overpay for Eric Hosmer on draft day.

For more fantasy baseball insight, visit us at www.fantasysportskings.com

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Brandon Belt was highly touted as we headed into 2011. That’s what happens when you hit .352 with 23 HR and 112 RBI over 492 AB across three levels in your first full season of professional ball. 

However, the 2009 fifth-round draft pick was not quite as impressive in his first stint in the Majors:

• 187 At Bats
• .225 Batting Average (42 Hits)
• Nine Home Runs
• 18 RBI
• 21 Runs
•  Three Stolen Bases
• .306 On Base Percentage
• .412 Slugging Percentage
• .273 BABIP

It obviously was a far cry from what owners had hoped to get from the rookie.  Now, the question is not only if he can recover and find his footing in the Major Leagues, but if he will even be given an opportunity to play in 2012.

With the ability to play first base and the outfield, the acquisitions of Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan (who join Nate Schierholtz) does make things a little bit crowded. 

As for first base, we all know that Aubrey Huff is going to get the first crack at starting there… 

Unfortunately for Belt, the presence of Brett Pill could also cloud his opportunities.  Not only did Pill flourish at Triple-A (.312, 25 HR, 107 RBI over 536 AB), but he looked a lot better in his Major League cup of coffee (.300, 2 HR, 9 RBI over 50 AB). 

Discussing Pill and what would be possible is a story for another day, but the point is that Belt is no lock to get the first chance there anymore.  Things get even trickier when you consider that Buster Posey could see at least a few games there in an attempt to keep him healthy.

So, the opportunity may not necessarily be there for Belt.  That alone should cause owners to be skeptical about investing too heavily on him in yearly formats.  From an ability standpoint, there are also things that he needs to improve.

First is his strikeout rate, which was at 27.3 percent in the Major Leagues.  Before we call that an unrealistic number, look at what he has done at Triple-A:

• 2010 (48 AB) – 24.6 percent
• 2011 (165 AB) – 22.2 percent

While they aren’t based on a huge same size, it still shows that he has had issues making contact at the upper levels.  It’s not impossible that he improves (you may want to call it likely), but it is also no guarantee. 

Even if he were down in the low 20 percent range, the number would put a bit of a wrench in his ability to hit for a good average.  Before you point to his .300 average at Triple-A, that mark came courtesy of a .381 BABIP. 

In other words, it’s not going to happen.

His track record tells us that he should be able to figure it out, but time will ultimately tell.

Belt still showed off his power in 2011, and there is a ton of potential, but it is hard to consider him a lock to produce in 2012.  First, he may not get the opportunity.  Second, he needs time to adjust to the upper levels of professional baseball.  I would expect him to open the year at Triple-A, getting regular AB and trying to figure things out.  If he does and the Giants need an offensive boost, then he should get an opportunity.

Unfortunately, he is going to need something (Huff/Schierholtz struggles for example) to get that chance. 

Is it likely to happen?  Yes, but don’t consider it a given.

What are your thoughts on Belt?  Do you think he could be a productive option in 2012?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out all of our 2012 rankings: Catchers, First Basemen, Second Basemen, Third Basemen and Shortstops.

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Brandon Morrow is a name we have all heard about in recent years. Whether it was the potential of being a lights-out closer in Seattle early in his career or a blow-away strikeout pitcher in Toronto, there has always been intrigue surrounding him from a fantasy perspective.

While the Mariners started his transition back to the rotation, the Toronto Blue Jays have given Morrow his true opportunity to shine in the role. He has exclusively been a starting pitcher since joining the team prior to the 2010 season, so should fantasy owners be prepared to reap the benefits of their patience?

Before we get started, let’s take a look at what he accomplished in his second full season as a starting pitcher:

• 11 wins
• 179.1 innings
• 4.72 ERA
• 1.29 WHIP
• 203 strikeouts (10.19 K/9)
• 69 walks (3.46 BB/9)
• .299 BABIP

The 27-year-old has struck out 381 batters in 325.1 innings over the past two seasons, so there should be no doubt about his ability to generate swings and misses. Armed with a fastball that has averaged more than 93 mph the past two seasons, he will help to buoy fantasy owners in this regard.

The question is, can he help teams in other categories?

Morrow showed improving control last season after posting a 4.46 BB/9 over his minor league career (and a 4.06 mark in 2010). He actually was consistent all year long, so it’s hard to call it unsustainable.  Just look at the numbers over the final four months of the year:

• June (31.0 IP): 3.19
• July (37.0 IP): 3.16
• August (30.2 IP): 3.23
• September (36.2 IP): 3.68

So, we know we have elite strikeout stuff and improving control—what exactly is there not to like about Morrow? 

Sure, if you look at the numbers on the surface, the ERA would be more than enough to scare off owners. However, we can easily point to last year’s 65.5 percent strand rate as the culprit. If he had posted even just a league-average mark in that regard, the ERA would’ve been under 4.00.

Yes, there is concern regarding pitching in the difficult AL East. While he may have handled the Yankees in 2011 (1.74 ERA over 20.2 IP), the opposite can be said about the Red Sox (12.32 ERA over 19.0 IP). Can we expect those numbers to continue? It’s impossible to predict any pitcher to dominate the Yankees like that every single season, though will the Red Sox really be able to shell him again.

However, while the consistent matchups are reason to downgrade him slightly, they are not enough to completely write him off. Many pitchers have proven that they can not only pitch well in the AL East but that they can perform with the elite in the game. If you don’t want to use CC Sabathia as an example since he plays for the Yankees, how about Jon Lester or David Price? Both should enter 2012 considered among the top 15 starting pitchers in the league.

In other words, to think Morrow can’t take the next step due to the division he pitches in would be a drastic mistake. Maybe he’s not on the level of those elite pitchers, but there is reason to think he can thrive.

As we enter 2012, we no longer have to worry about an innings limit. Seeing Morrow throw more than 200 innings will be likely, and that will almost certainly mean another 200-plus strikeout campaign. If he can simply replicate last year’s control with that, his numbers are going to be impressive.

Obviously he is not going to be an early-round pick, but if you can get Morrow as a pitcher to fill out your rotation (according to Mock Draft Central, his ADP is 181.62). He’s a player I will certainly be targeting in all formats, and I would recommend you doing the same.

What are your thoughts on Morrow? Is he a player you would be willing to draft? Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our 2012 projections:

• Bumgarner, Madison
• Freeman, Freddie
• Jones, Adam
• Lawrie, Brett
• Wieters, Matt

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