Kuzul

Is there anything to pitchers who look significantly better at home as opposed to on the road (or vice versa)?  Should we be playing those matchups more closely? 

Over the next few weeks, we will be looking at some of the more notable splits and determining if we should be sitting a pitcher in certain situations:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
Home ERA – 6.86 (42.0 innings)
Road ERA – 2.14 (42.0 innings)

His dominance away from Coors Field continued last night, as he tossed a gem against the New York Yankees (not that the environment was any better than his home ballpark), allowing two ER on four H and four BB, striking out seven, over 7.0 innings. 

The biggest difference in his performance?  At home, he has allowed seven HR, on the road zero.

The question is if this is a new trend or something that has plagued Jimenez in the past. 

Last season he posted a 3.19 ERA at home, in 2009 he was at 3.34.  In other words, his struggles at home have not been seen before, even after he regressed in 2010.  From July forward he made nine starts at home, only twice allowing more than three ER.

It really doesn’t appear that there is too much to worry about at this point.  Jimenez is too good of an option to put on your bench anyways and you have to think that he is going to correct the problem before long. 

Stay patient and you should benefit.  His next start comes at home against the Chicago White Sox.  Despite his issues, I’d keep him active and take the “risk.”

Mike Pelfrey – New York Mets
Home ERA – 2.96 (48.2 innings)
Road ERA – 6.65 (47.1 innings)

Does it surprise anyone that Pelfrey has excelled at the spacious Citi Field, while getting his clocked cleaned on the road?  The trend continued yesterday, allowing four ER against the Rangers in Texas.

It’s very similar to last year’s split, when he went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA at home and 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA on the road.  It’s not that he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, though he has seen a significant jump in his fly ball rate this season. 

Last season he was at 32.0 percent and for his career he’s at 31.6 percent.  This season?  He’s at 41.0 percent, which is an entirely different issue. 

Maybe he’s trying to adjust his style to pitch to his ballpark, but that certainly doesn’t help him when he’s on the road.  He’s allowed 14 HR on the season, only four have come at home.

Pelfrey is more of a pitch and ditch option at this point, but using him when he is on the road, no matter what the matchup, would not be a wise decision. 

He has only allowed less than three ER in two road starts this season.  If he’s pitching at home, he could be worth the flier; otherwise, leave him sitting on the waiver wire.

Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
Home ERA – 6.13 (39.2 innings)
Road ERA – 3.19 (53.2 innings)

It’s interesting to look at Lewis’ splits, because he’s been burned by the long ball all season long, whether at home or on the road.  While the rate certainly is worse in Arlington (11 HR), it’s not like the eight he has allowed on the road is a stellar number. 

He’s just allowing too many fly balls (51.9 percent), a number that isn’t even close to last year’s solid 44.9 percent.  If he can get that under control, the numbers will improve no matter where he is pitching.

Last season, he got the job done at home, with a 3.41 ERA (vs. a 3.95 on the road).  Another issue in 2011 is worse luck at home, with a 67.3 percent strand rate.  Plus, for some reason he simply isn’t registering strikeouts (5.45 K/9 vs. an 8.89 K/9 on the road). 

Is there any real reason that he’s not striking people out at home?

He’s been pitching better lately, allowing two ER over 13.2 IP in his past two starts, including one at home.  That certainly is a good sign and, if he’s healthy (he is battling a neck issue), he should certainly be active for his next outing, which comes on the road against the Astros. 

It’s worth monitoring, but I would certainly expect him to improve on his numbers at home before long making him usable regardless of where he is pitching.

What are your thoughts of these three pitchers?  Would you play the home/road split with any of them?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out these other great articles from Rotoprofessor:

• Around the Majors: June 24: Anthony Rizzo, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez & More
• Injury Report: June 25: Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Roy Oswalt & More
• The Trade Counsel: Picking Your Sample Size
• Waiver Worthy: Is The Blue Jays’ Eric Thames Worth Owning?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Brandon Beachy is no joke.

Okay, so the 2-1 record is a little funny considering he has a 3.22 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. Somewhere, Matt Cain feels his pain. What Beach has been able to do this year has been remarkable.

In his nine starts, Beachy has recorded at least seven strikeouts on six occasions. Six times he has allowed two or fewer runs. Six times he’s allowed four or fewer hits.  He’s only walked more than two batters in one start.

In his first start after returning from the DL he had his work cut out for him against Toronto.

How did he respond? By pitching six innings and allowing one run on four hits with 11 strikeouts. He basically shut down one of the most potent offenses in the league fresh off the disabled list.

That is ridiculous.

It’s not the first time he shut down a potent offense. Twice he’s rendered the Brewers’ bats useless. He also silenced the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals.

About the only team that has had success against him is Philadelphia. His next start is scheduled to be against Seattle on Tuesday. Tell me that doesn’t make you lick your chops.

Despite his success Beachy is available in about half of all fantasy leagues. Hurry up and grab him before a competitor notices his solid matchup next week.

Also check out:

• Is Edwin Jackson Worth the Risk?
• Stealing a Fantasy Baseball Championship: Five Under the Radar Players
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 RBI Guys Vol. 5
• Can Brian Duensing Get on Track?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Strikeout Kings Vol. 5

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Successful fantasy baseball owners will draft teams that have a strong balance of well-established blue chip players and a few up-and-coming players looking to take the next step to stardom.  The blue chip players act as a strong foundation, providing a consistent level of production from week to week, while the budding stars tend to be hit-or-miss fliers. Although it is much harder to predict the success of these fliers, finding the proverbial diamond in the rough is critical for a championship run.

Here are the five biggest offensive surprises of the 2011 season (through 70 Games)

Begin Slideshow

A trade in my league prompted me to once again take a look at some relatively available stolen base guys. The trade was Michael Bourn for Carlos Quentin and Andre Ethier. I thought that was way too steep of a price to pay for runs and stolen bases.

I’m not saying the following guys are better than Bourn, but they can be had for a much cheaper bounty. The stats are based on the past 15 days. He has the added benefit of shortstop and second base eligibility. That allows you to use sluggers in your outfield slots.

• Michael Bourn, Houston Astros:  .308 average, 16 hits, seven runs, three RBI, seven stolen bases
• Jordan Schafer, Atlanta Braves:  .245 average, 13 hits, 10 runs, one home run, three RBI, six stolen bases
• Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals:  .392, 20 hits, 11 runs, three RBI, six stolen bases
• Alexi Casilla, Minnesota Twins:  .373, 19 hits, eight runs, six RBI, five stolen bases
• Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies:  .410, 16 hits, five runs, six RBI, five stolen bases

I realize that Bourn is the superior option of this quintet, but he’s not good enough in my mind to justify trading two sluggers away. Not when stolen bases are available on the waiver wire.

Casilla, for instance, has been hitting .320 with 19 runs, 11 RBI, and eight stolen bases since the beginning of May.

I don’t have an issue with shaking up your lineup to improve a particular category, but you’re basically robbing Peter to pay Paul when you give up that much power to add to your speed categories.

Also check out:

• Is A.J. Burnett Due for a Crash?
• Can Nick Markakis Turn His Season Around?
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Run Scorers Vol. 5
• The Stream Team
• Fantasy Baseball Free Agent Pool – 2011 Speed Demons Vol. 5

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Stock traders know all about the buy low, sell high philosophy.  So do fantasy baseball owners.   

To win in fantasy baseball, you have to get guys on the cheap who turn out to provide a lot of bang for little buck over a short period of time, and then you have to trade those same players away when their values are at their highest points in order to acquire better players who will help you win your league.

Two-plus months into the season there are several hitters and pitchers who are exceeding expectations, and chances are they are not going to keep up their frenetic paces, whether it is because they will get injured, lose their jobs, or come crashing back to earth. 

Here are five players I would trade now before their fantasy values start dropping like afternoon soap operas.  Deal them away for solid fantasy performers before they realize they are playing over their heads, or else wind up stuck with them at the All-Star break when their trade values dry up.  

Begin Slideshow

J.J. Hardy, SS Baltimore Orioles (23 percent owned in Yahoo, 37.1 percent ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .288 AVG / 19 R / 6 HR / 19 RBI / 0 SB

Hardy has been a monster the past 14 days hitting .375 AVG, 11 R, four HR, seven RBI. It seems like everyone has forgotten his ’07 and ’08 seasons with the Brewers when he hit .280 AVG, 167 R, 50 HR, 164 RBI. I am writing off last year as a fluke because Target Field is a tough place to call home. Now he is in a park that is very friendly to right-handed hitters.

My Projection: .279 AVG / 80 R / 20 HR / 65 RBI / 2 SB

Michael Brantley, OF Cleveland Indians (49 percent owned in Yahoo, 83 percent in ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .293 AVG / 35 R / 5 HR / 26 RBI / 8 SB

You Yahoo people need to get with the program. I don’t know what else this guy has to do to be more universally owned. He is sitting atop a good AL lineup that will continue to score runs, he is taking walks at a decent clip and the batting average should stick. I would like to see him be more active on the base paths because he has shown the ability in the minors and don’t expect 15 home runs.

My Projection: .290 AVG / 100 R / 10 HR / 62 RBI / 29 SB

Corey Patterson, OF Toronto Blue Jays (43 percent owned in Yahoo, 77.8 percent ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .293 AVG / 35 R / 5 HR / 28 RBI / 9 SB

If Brantley isn’t available in your league, hopefully Patterson is because you are getting similar production. He has not consistently hit for high average in his career (.255 career AVG) but it should remain respectable if he continues to hit in front of Bautista and Lind. His .153 ISO is in-line with his career mark of .151 ISO so 15 HR is not out of the question. He has been caught stealing 6 times but the Jays are very aggressive on the bases so he still has the green light.

My Projection: .270 AVG / 85 R / 15 HR / 65 RBI / 30 SB

Mark Trumbo, 1B Los Angeles Angels (34 percent owned in Yahoo, 79.2 percent ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .252 AVG / 23 R / 11 HR / 29 RBI / 6 SB

Mark Trumbo’s Yahoo ownership level baffles me. In the minors last year, he hit .299 AVG with 36 HR and he is showing the same type of power in the majors. This guy is a near lock for 25 HR and the stolen bases are an added bonus. He has been hitting out of the seven spot more often than I would like but he may get an opportunity to move up.

My Projection: 250 AVG / 65 R / 26 HR / 79 RBI / 12 SB

Miguel Olivo, C Seattle Mariners (31 percent owned in Yahoo, 29.2 percent ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .241 AVG / 28 R / 8 HR / 30 RBI / 2 SB

In a year that the catcher position is so thin, Olivo deserves a good look. Seattle may not have the best lineup in the world (or 28th best) but Olivo is batting cleanup or fifth everyday for the Mariners. In the past seven games he has four HR and 11 RBI. He may finish the year as a top ten catcher so give him a shot.

My Projection: .250 AVG / 72 R / 22 HR / 85 RBI / 4 SB

Click here for our other waiver wire gems!

Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com, where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Here’s a look at the unheralded fantasy baseball players who played well yesterday

Toronto at Baltimore

Yunel Escobar went 2-for-4 with two runs and an RBI. Juan Rivera went 2-for-3 with two runs and an RBI. J.P. Arencibia went 1-for-5 with a grand slam. He’s up to nine home runs and 30 RBI. J.J. Hardy went 3-for-4 with two runs, a home run and two RBI. Carlos Villanueva gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings to improve to 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA.

Texas at Cleveland

Mitch Moreland went 2-for-5 with two runs. Endy Chavez went 3-for-5 with a run and two RBI. Alexi Ogando gave up one run on four hits with six strikeouts in eight innings to improve to 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

Jose Tabata went 1-for-5 with two RBI. Jeff Karstens gave up one run on four hits in seven innings, but got a no-decision.

Oakland at Boston

Josh Willingham went 3-for-5 with a run. Daric Barton went 2-for-4 with a run and two RBI. Mark Ellis went 1-for-4 with two RBI.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati

Scott Rolen went 2-for-4 with two RBI (20). Bronson Arroyo gave up one run on five hits over six innings to improve to 4-5. Hiroki Kuroda gave up two runs in six innings, but took the loss.

Atlanta at New York Mets

Chipper Jones went 2-for-5 with a home run. Freddie Freeman went 3-for-5 with a run and two RBI. Daniel Murphy and Angel Pagan each went 2-for-4 with an RBI. Jonathon Niese gave up two runs with seven strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings , but got a no-decision.

Milwaukee at Florida

Mark Kotsay and John Buck each went 2-for-4 with an RBI. Yuniesky Betancourt went 2-for-4 with a run.

Detroit at Chicago White Sox

Juan Pierre went 1-for-2 with three runs and a rare home run. Brent Morel went 3-for-4. Casper Wells went 1-for-3 with a home run and three RBI. Brennan Boesch went 2-for-5. Jhonny Peralta went 3-for-4 to raise his average to .324.

Minnesota at Kansas City

Denard Span went 2-for-5 with two RBI. Alex Casilla went 1-for-3 with two stolen bases. Ben Revere and Delmon Young each went 2-for-4 with a run. Drew Butera went 1-for-2 with a run and two RBI. Eric Hosmer went 2-for-4. Carl Pavano gave up two runs in a complete game victory.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis

Ryan Theriot went 2-for-4 with a run to raise his average to .305. Yadier Molina went 2-for-3 to raise his average to .324.

Washington at Arizona

Ryan Roberts went 2-for-4 with a run. Josh Collmenter gave up three hits with five strikeouts in seven scoreless innings to improve to 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA.

Tampa Bay at Seattle

Jason Vargas threw a four-hit shutout to improve to 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA.  Justin Smoak went 1-for-2 with his 10th home run and 33rd and 34th RBI. Adam Kennedy went 1-for-3 with a home run and two RBI. Miguel Olivo went 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBI.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

Mark Trumbo went 2-for-3. Peter Bourjos went 2-for-3 with an RBI and a stolen base.

Houston at San Diego

Chris Denorfia went 2-for-3 with a home run to raise his average to .319. Jason Bartlett went 2-for-3 with a run and his 10th RBI. Clint Barmes went 2-for-4. Chris Johnson went 2-for-4 with a run. Dustin Moseley gave up one run with five strikeouts in seven innings to improve to 2-6 with a 3.00 ERA.

Colorado at San Francisco

Emmanuel Burriss went 3-for-4. Cody Ross went 2-for-3 with a run and two RBI.

Also check out:

• Should Justin Masterson Owners Be Nervous?
• Can Tim Stauffer Be Even Better?
• Why Reaching For Saves Doesn’t Make Sense
• Can John Danks Get Back on Track?
• Should You Buy Low on Carlos Santana?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In 10 starts this year John Danks has yet to pick up a win while sporting a bloated 1.45 WHIP—not exactly what everybody expected from him this year. Not after three consecutive double-digit win/sub 4.00 ERA seasons.

Can he get back on track?

Considering he’s not all the way off the track, I say yes. The lack of a single win stings, and while the WHIP is high it’s not a death blow to fantasy teams. Nor is his 4.34 ERA. His strikeouts per nine innings are slightly down at 6.1, but his lifetime mark is just 6.9, so he hasn’t gone in the tank.

Consistency has been an issue. He has given up four or more runs in 40 percent of his starts. Every other start in his past six have been one of those bad starts. With Toronto on the horizon, I’m afraid he’s going to make that four of seven. While I would not start him against the Jays on Sunday, I wouldn’t write him off either.

Danks has been unlucky, and not just because he’s winless despite an ERA slightly north of 4.00. Not just because his team scored two or fewer runs in six of ten starts. Naturally both of those factorscome into play, but he also has a .308 BABIP.  Last year it was .274, in 2009 in was .267 and in 2008 it was .293.

Considering he was one of the steadiest pitchers over the past three years, I would expect his BABIP to come down. His double-digit win streak is in serious jeopardy, but he should have some nice moments ahead.

His combined career record for June and July is 18-10 with a 3.78 ERA. The rest of the months he is 28-41 with a 4.09 ERA.

Use Danks as a streamer when the match-up is right. You should still get some quality starts from him.

Also check out:

Should You Buy Low on Carlos Santana?
Can Alex Rios Turn It Around?
Should You Buy Low on Chris Carpenter?
Can Kyle McClellan Continue to Shine?
Is Ian Kinsler a Good Trade Target?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Kinsler got out of the gate early slugging a home run in his first three games. He hit his fourth by April 10. He hit his fifth on April 22 and has gone 26 games without hitting another one. His power drought isn’t the only concern.

Obviously, the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Ian Kinsler is his injury history. He has played in 43 of 45 games so far, which puts him on pace for 154 games. He’s never played 145 games in a season so the threat of a trip to the D.L. is legitimate.

Now that we discussed the elephant in the room (injuries), there is also a hippo in the room (his average). Kinlser has batted .263 and .253 in the past so his 2011 .228 average through March 20 doesn’t come as a huge shock. While it is still far below his lifetime average of .278, he has at times struggled at the plate.

His BABIP is just .231. Last year it was .313, but in 2009 it was .241. From 2006-08 it was .304, .279 and .334. Clearly his history suggests that a higher BABIP for the remainder of the season is more likely, it wouldn’t be the first time that he turned in a stinker in this sabermetric.

An encouraging sign is his reduced strikeout rate (12.0 percent), which is down from 14.6 percent last year and 13.6 percent in 2009. It’s the lowest rate he has had in the big leagues.

Despite his struggles, Kinsler is still on pace to score 87 runs, hit 18 HRs, knock in 61 runs and swipe 29 bases. If his luck and average can improve, those numbers could all increase.

It will still take a nice haul to land Kinsler, but his asking price may be as low as it gets. He’s hitless in his past 16 at bats and is batting .219 for the month. If you’re looking to add some pop and/or speed to your lineup it’s worth looking into a trade of Kinsler.

Also check out:

• Can Dan Uggla Turn Around His Ugly Season?
• Should You Buy Low on Andrew McCutchen?
• Is It Time to Panic About Brandon League?
• Help Is Coming:  Should You Add Brian Matusz?
• Is Matt Joyce For Real?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Here’s a look at the unheralded fantasy baseball players who played well yesterday.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Nobody stood out in this Ohio battle.

New York Mets at New York Yankees
Justin Turner went 3-for-4 with an RBI to raise his average to .364. R.A. Dickey gave up one run on four hits with six strikeouts in six innings to pick up the win. Freddy Garcia gave up two runs on five hits in seven innings, but took the loss.

Texas at Philadelphia
Raul Ibanez went 1-for-2 with two runs and a homer. Ben Francisco went 1-for-2 with a home run and two RBI. Roy Halladay delivered once again. C.J. Wilson gave up three runs on four hits in seven innings to take the loss, but he struck out 10.

Detroit at Pittsburgh
Garrett Jones went 2-for-4 with two runs and two RBI. Neil Walker went 2-for-5 with a home run and five RBI. Ramon Santiago went 2-for-3 with a home run. Jeff Karstens gave up one run on three hits in six innings to improve to 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA.

Houston at Toronto
Chris Johnson went 2-for-3 with a home run and two RBI (19). Aaron Hill went 3-for-4 with a run. Juan Rivera went 2-for-4 with a run. Jo-Jo Reyes gave up five hits with seven strikeouts in seven scoreless innings, but got a no-decision.

Tampa Bay at Florida
Chris Coghlan went 2-for-4 with a run. Logan Morrison went 2-for-4 with two runs, a homer and two RBI. Matt Joyce continued to rake, going 2-for-4 with a run and two RBI (23) to raise his average to .358. Casey Kotchman went 2-for-3 with an RBI to raise his average to .340.

St. Louis at Kansas City
Eric Hosmer was 2-for-4 to raise his average to .314. Wilson Betemit went 2-for-4 with a run to raise his average to .311. Chris Getz went 2-for-3 with a run. Jeff Francis gave up six hits with six strikeouts in seven-and-two-thirds scoreless innings for the win.

Washington at Baltimore
Roger Bernandina went 2-for-6 with a home run and two RBI. Ian Desmond went 2-for-6 with two runs. Laynce Nix went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI. Wilson Ramos went 3-for-4 with five runs, a homer and two RBI. Danny Espinosa went 3-for-4 with three runs and five RBI. Jerry Hairston Jr. went 2-for-5 with a run and two RBI.

Chicago Cubs at Boston
Jed Lowrie went 2-for-5 with his 19th RBI. Jarrod Saltalamacchia went 2-for-3 with three runs and a homer. Jeff Baker went 4-for-5 with two runs. Reed Johnson went 2-for-4 with two RBI.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
Jamey Carroll went 4-for-5 with two runs. Jay Gibbons went 2-for-5 with an RBI.

Minnesota at Arizona
Ryan Roberts went 1-for-4 with three RBI (21). Xavier Nady went 2-for-4 with two runs and an RBI. Kelly Johnson went 2-for-4 with a run and two RBI. Trevor Plouffe went 1-for-3 with two runs, a homer and two RBI. Delmon Young went 2-for-4 with a run.

Atlanta at Los Angeles Angels
Ervin Santana struck out seven in a four-hit shutout. Albero Callasapo went 2-for-3 with a run and three RBI (23) to raise his average to .306. Mark Trumbo went 3-for-4 with a home run (7) and three RBI (21).

Seattle at San Diego
Erik Bedard gave up three hits with nine strikeouts in eight scoreless innings for the win. Miguel Olivo went 2-for-4 with two runs. Brendan Ryan went 2-for-3 with two RBI. Ryan Ludwick went 2-for-4 with his 29th RBI.

Colorado at Milwaukee
Seth Smith went 3-for-6 with an RBI. Ty Wiggington went 3-for-6 with two runs. Chris Iannetta went 2-for-6 with a run and an RBI. Yuniesky Betancourt went 3-for-6 with two runs and a homer. Carlos Gomez went 2-for-5 with a run and two stolen bases (11).

Oakland at San Francisco
Ryan Vogelsong, yesterday’s streaming pitcher option, gave up an unearned run on four hits with five strikeouts, but got a no-decision. He lowered his ERA to 1.93. Trevor Cahill turned in another solid performance as well, but also did not factor into the decision. Mark Ellis went 2-for-4 with a run.

Also check out:

• Can Dan Uggla Turn Around His Ugly Season?
• Should You Buy Low on Andrew McCutchen?
• Is It Time to Panic About Brandon League?
• Help Is Coming:  Should You Add Brian Matusz?
• Is Matt Joyce For Real?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com