Kuzul

Even after extending Felix Hernandez, the Mariners were faced with speculation that they’d trade their ace at the beginning of 2011. In the past couple days there has been a ton of speculation in the media about the team trading Erik Bedard, Jason Vargas or Doug Fister.

The Mariners should trade one of these guys, if the package they get in return is right.

There are a ton of components that go into a decision to trade a starting pitcher, not the least of which is that starter’s talent. We talk a lot about years of team control, which is certainly important, but are years of team control as valuable for a pitcher, presumed to be a back-of-the-rotation starter, as perhaps a mid-to-upper-rotation starter?

Certainly not.

And in Bedard, Vargas and Fister, the team has guys who can easily be perceived by some teams as fits in any of their rotations slots.

Fister is a prime example of where years of team control hold less value. Fister is a guy who has ridden a low HR/FB ratio and lackluster peripherals to solid results. On talent alone, Fister is a pretty generic option in trade. He’s a poor man’s Kevin Millwood or Livan Hernandez. Sure, if a team traded for him, they’d have him under team control for four more years after 2012, but he’s a huge regression candidate, especially in a different home ballpark (4.16 FIP career on the road, compared to 3.81 at Safeco).

Even in Safeco, the chances of Fister’s high wire act continuing is pretty slim and could be pushed out of the rotation by present farmhands in the next couple years. If the Mariners can get something of greater value for Fister, they should jump at the opportunity. I’d look for someone like Seth Smith from Colorado or Drew Sutton from Boston.

The other two pitchers, Bedard and Vargas, probably haven’t reached the potential peak of their value yet. If either of them (or both!) keep pitching the way they are right now, a Cliff Lee-like package isn’t completely out of the question.

Bedard is probably the more talented pitcher. He has a viable breaking ball and a better fastball. His problems, obviously, center on his health. This may lead the team, or fans, to want to trade Bedard as soon as possible, since he’s a high injury risk, and an injury would destroy his value. However, because they’ve bought so low on the new version of Bedard, he seems like a solid value to keep around until at least the beginning of July. If he gets hurt the sunk costs are minimal, and if he’s healthy, his value is likely to be at its peak by then.

Besides health, Bedard’s limiting factor is his pending free agency. After missing all of last year, it’s unlikely that Bedard is a Type A or B free agent after this season, and there is no guarantee that he remains the kind of bargain he has been for the Mariners so far this season (obviously not in the past).

Vargas is perhaps the most volatile. Just two days ago I proposed that the Mariners should either attempt to extend Vargas now, or this upcoming offseason, or never.

Just like the Mariners are at a critical point for Vargas’ future with the team, they may be at a critical point for his future with another team. It makes sense for the team to explore a trade for him, but having a low-cost, under-30, effective pitcher in the rotation, makes a hell of a lot of sense too.

There isn’t a ton of precedent for trading a guy with two years of team control, who is recently effective after a career full of struggles. Maybe the best comparable is Bronson Arroyo, who after two solid-ish years in Boston, was traded to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena about two weeks before the 2006 season. Pena’s name may not inspire excitement, but he was a top hitting prospect, which is a pretty big return for a guy of that type.

Arroyo was a well-known member of the 2004 World Series champion Red Sox, an intangible asset (undoubtedly an overvalued one) that Vargas doesn’t have. However, Vargas has posted better season prior to that.

The Mariners should trade one of these guys if it can improve the offense. But, they shouldn’t trade Bedard or Vargas for anything but top prospects. While the market for starting pitchers is developing, it certainly isn’t fully developed, and the Mariners should wait to trade either of the latter, or they’ll be getting less than full value for the pitchers.

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North and South of Royal Brougham offers articles like this, as well as articles about things like:

Michael Pineda’s need for a nickname

The Seattle Sounders

The Seattle Seahawks Quarterback situation

Gary Payton’s Love for Seattle

and last but not least

Nate Robinson’s tweets, and how Seattle fans should receive them

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Each year, the talent that enters Major League Baseball seems to get younger.  After all, we are on the verge of seeing a player break into the majors who is barely old enough to vote for the President of the United States.

This is great news for the fans who get to see a young talent pool of players who should be around for a very long time.

Here is a list of the top 25 pitchers under age 25 who should anchor major league pitching staffs for the next 10 to 15 years.

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In baseball today, fickle fans have a fascination with speed when it comes to pitching.  Unless a pitcher can throw a fastball upwards of 94 miles per hour, it seems that he is not worth one’s total attention.  While the fastball is certainly a fine pitch, I would prefer today to talk about a horse of a different color: the changeup.

All in all, the changeup is the same as the fastball in terms of movement.  It moves straight, but a special grip required to throw it makes it a different pitch entirely.  Rather than overwhelm an opposing batter with high velocity, a changeup moves much slower than a typical fastball and most batters swing at it too early.

While many of today’s pitchers do have great fastballs, many of those same pitchers rely heavily on a changeup in order to be effective.  One pitcher who uses this pitch very well is Philadelphia Phillies ace Roy Halladay (pictured at left), whose changeup just seems to improve season after season.

Here are 10 pitchers in baseball today, Halladay included, whose changeups are extremely stifling.

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For the past several years, the outcry among critics of the Mariners was that while the team could field viable rosters–think ’07 and ’09, of course–there was no home-grown talent outside of the dazzling Felix Hernandez.

AAA Tacoma was the breeding ground for players who would achieve little, if anything, at the major league level. Haunting memories of prospects who have failed to live up to their billing have come and gone with Rob Johnson, Matt Tuiasasosopo, Brandon Morrow, and Wladimir Balentien (some of you may go, ‘who?’).

The Jose Guillens and Russell Branyans of the M’s free agent signings have made their impact on the team, and so have the Carlos Silva’s and Miguel Batista’s. But the problem remained that while we could buy a few more expensive wins with a guy like Cliff Lee, we were left with Brandon Morrow while another team flourished with Tim Lincecum.

In order to win and to stay competitive for more than a couple years, a team needs to develop its own talent rather than relying on pricy free agents, and that was the issue with the Mariners. But today, I’m telling you that this era is coming to a close.

After watching Pineda bind the Kansas City Royals to one run in six innings and Justin Smoak go 2 for 4 to continue both of their remarkable seasons, it became clear to me that these two guys could be top contributors on the team for years to come.

First, let’s talk about every M’s fan’s current infatuation, Michael Pineda. He’s had less success facing left-handed batters and can get smacked around a bit if he gets behind in the count too much, but besides that, you couldn’t ask for a better start for Pineda.

In his first three starts, Pineda has combined for 19 1/3 innings pitched, striking out 16 and posting an extraordinary 2.33 ERA. Although Pineda will likely stumble at some point, all doubt has been removed whether the rookie can pitch at the major league level.

Said Toronto’s Jay Patterson of Pineda in an interview with Larry Stone (Seattle Times), “I think he has a chance to be something special, and I really don’t like complimenting pitchers that much”.

Pineda’s high 90’s fastball rivals that of King Felix and his breaking stuff is effective enough when paired with that fastball. His dominance and confidence exudes when he is on the mound and it seems to augment as a game wears on.

22-year-olds just don’t get this good, this fast. The Mariners struck gold when they signed him at the age of 17, and they are about to reap the immense rewards.

My prediction is that by the end of the season, Pineda and Felix will have become a formidable 1-2 punch that can anchor the rotation for the future and even draw fans to Safeco. When you talk about being a playoff contending team, you need those two studs who can give you a chance to win every outing, like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum did with the 2010 World Champion Giants.

And next, we come to Justin Smoak. After being acquired in the Cliff Lee deal from the Rangers last year, Smoak disappointed and was even sent back down to the minors.

But this season, Smoak has hit for a .300 average, and to some that pales in comparison to some of the excellent campaigns other first basemen have been putting together around the league.

However, as a 25-year-old with limited experience in the majors and in a stagnant Mariners offense, Smoak has emerged as a top hitter in the lineup. His development since joining the M’s has been outstanding, especially his ability to stay patient at the plate which most young hitters don’t learn.

This is seen best by Smoak’s ability to work the count and draw a walk- Smoak has struck out ten times this season, but has walked eleven times. Those eleven walks are good for sixth in the AL and tied for 11^th in all of baseball.

Even his defense has been showcased this season, best seen in the outstanding play made against the Blue Jays in which he caught a foul popup and gunned Corey Patterson out at home trying to tag-up from third by a wide margin, a throw equivalent to one which an outfielder would have to make.

Smoak hasn’t fully developed yet and I expect some more pop from his bat as the season wears on, but there’s no question that after Richie Sexson and Russell Branyan have come and gone, the first baseman spot will be Smoak’s to keep. He’s shown an ability to get on base consistently and with mediocre bats in so many other positions, first base may be locked up for years to come.

And with the farm system featuring prospects like Dustin Ackley, Carlos Peguero, Alex Liddi, Josh Lueke, and Carlos Triunfel all developing, it may be only a matter of time before the youth movement hits the majors.

Is this the start of a great influx of young talent? Only time will tell, but Michael Pineda and Justin Smoak are an encouraging beacon of hope in a desolate wasteland of second-rate players. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Stephen Strasburg and Adam Wainwright would have been two of my answers to this column’s question before they were both sidelined with elbow injuries that will keep them off the diamond for most, if not all, of this season.

A team’s rotation is pretty fluid throughout the course of a year. In a 162-game season, teams will be plagued with injuries and most of these injuries will find pitchers sitting on the DL picking their noses with their good arms while their team pushes forward in an effort to make the postseason. Strasburg will do that this year as his teammate and fellow hurler Jordan Zimmerman did last year. 

Who will catch the injury bug is impossible to predict. I thought that Justin Verlander would have thrown his arm out of the socket by now considering how many innings and pitches he throws. He is overused in my opinion yet he still keeps trucking along at an amazing pace, throwing upper 90 fastballs and chalking up W’s for the Tigers.

I was counting on Adam Wainwright to anchor my fantasy team this year until his arm called it quits and forced me to draft John “lackluster” Lackey and Brian Matusz in an attempt to compensate for the loss. Matusz is now injured as well, nursing a hang nail or something.

Needless to say I am getting my grapes stomped thus far in fantasy but I’m not here to whine about that. I’m here to let you know who is going to garner the most wins per team this season and why.

You may disagree with me, as a lot of you so often do, or you may agree 100 percent with me as nobody ever does, but either way I won’t know if you don’t leave a comment. So please let me know your thoughts on this matter in the comment section. Thanks and enjoy. First up is the AL East. 

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Everything looked a bit different on Opening Day today as I watched the Mariners after six months of waiting. Maybe it was because of the new ROOT Sports look instead of FSN. Maybe it was all the changes the M’s had made to their team in the offseason.

Maybe it was the fact that we were missing Dave Niehaus and his sweet, sweet voice…I found my eyes misty as I watched the pre-game Opening Day introduction narrated by Niehaus.

Or maybe it was that the Mariners actually had some offense tonight (too soon?). Regardless, there were some positive signs to build from after tonight’s ball game.

The M’s stranded several runners early on, but showed great patience at the plate.

Oakland A’s starter Trevor Cahill lasted just 4 2/3 innings, throwing a whopping 105 pitches, as the Mariners hitters forced the ace to exit early and then capitalized on the weak bullpen.

“[Eric Wedge] was in the dugout telling us, ‘We’re knocking on the door. Keep going, keep grinding,’ ” Mariners DH Jack Cust said.

Chone Figgins showed a rare flash of power as he cranked a solo shot off reliever Craig Breslow in the sixth inning, putting the M’s ahead and matching his entire season home run total from last year.

After a Cust walk and a Justin Smoak double in the seventh, Oakland’s defensive play melted down and allowed the Mariners to score three easy runs to widen the lead to 6-2.

M’s batters walked a combined seven times, demonstrating outstanding patience and an ability to put up runs and make King Felix’s night much easier.

Speaking of Felix Hernandez (or should I say ‘Larry Bernandez’?), the ace picked up right where he left off after his Cy Young-winning campaign last season.

After an understandably shaky first inning in which he gave up a two-run shot to Josh Willingham, Felix settled down and retired 24 of the next 27 batters.

Felix was dominant, allowing just five hits in all nine innings of work. He had ‘just’ five strikeouts, but got 15 ground-ball outs as he forced the A’s into submission.

“If you talk about Opening Day, you can’t ask for much more than that,” Wedge said of Felix’s performance.

Overall, the offense showed the potential for productivity. Ichiro did what he needed to by getting on base and stealing his way into scoring position. Smoak showed some pop as he belted a double to initiate the three-run seventh inning.

Miguel Olivo contributed well to the offense, going 2 for 5 with an RBI and showing that maybe the catcher position won’t be the black hole offensively that it was last season.

On Saturday, the A’s and M’s square off again as Jason Vargas faces Brett Anderson at 6:05 PT.

Notes:

Ichiro is one hit shy of tying Edgar Martinez’s franchise record of 2,247 hits.

Felix Hernandez was the first Mariner to throw a complete game on Opening Day.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Every year the Mariners come out with a new set of five or six commercials in which they feature their most exciting players.  This year we got to meet Larry Bernandez and watch Ichiro hit tic-tacs.  The marketing team always comes up with something pretty clever.

Here’s a look at some of the best:

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With Opening Day only a few hours away, the crack of the bat is soon to be heard. The eyes of the sports world will shift from the dreariness of winter sports, to the excitement of baseball and the thrill of the approaching summer months. 

Last season was a memorable one for Major League Baseball. There were numerous perfect games (and near perfect games), including a perfect gem in the playoffs by Roy Halladay; Ken Griffey Jr’s retirement; the surge and disappointment of Stephen Strasburg; and the resurgence of the Cincinnati Reds and the San Francisco Giants.

This season will be no different. There will be thrills and disappointment. But first, here are some players who will make the most impact in their respective leagues. These are the pre-season all-star teams.

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This is an insane column, folks. Why would the Seattle Mariners trade Felix Hernandez before the trade deadline? Why would they trade him ever?

To butcher a line from my good friend (never met the man) Allen Iverson, “Felix? We talkin’ ‘bout King Felix?”

I went to Arizona last year for spring training with a friend who was “in” with the Seattle brass. We were hooked up with game tickets, as well as being able to meet and mingle with the players, etc.

I got a really good look at Seattle’s pitching staff that year, and if somebody told me that they were going to trade Cliff Lee, I would have performed, right there on the spot, my best Iverson impersonation: “Lee? We talkin’ ‘bout Cliff Lee?”

I would have bet my bank account (good for about two trips to Bojangles—Bo-rounds one trip and seasoned fries the next; gotta mix things up a bit—and a nosebleed seat to a Bobcats game—I’m trying to embrace my new surroundings since my move from Los Angeles) the Mariners wouldn’t trade Lee.

Thankfully, I never made that bet because 1) I love Bo-rounds and B) the Mariners shipped Mr. Lee to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak, a couple of young pitchers and some other guy. The Rangers, incidentally, went on to play in the World Series. The Mariners did not.

You can look at this thing two ways. First, you can ask yourself how the Mariners could essentially make the same mistake two years in a row and thus conclude that writing about a King Felix trade is just an extreme waste of my time, or you can pitch your tent on the other side of camp, where the “well, they did it before, so I can see them doing it again” people reside. Where are you most comfortable?

In order to trade Hernandez, Seattle must believe it has some extremely pressing needs at the plate. Looking at last year’s Cliff Lee trade, we see that the Mariners definitely upgraded their bats and defense with Justin Smoak, a very promising young slugger.

You see, Seattle went into last season making a deep run in the playoffs without even playing a single inning. In addition to Cliff Lee, they acquired Chone Figgins at third base, Casey Kotchman at first base and Milton Bradley in the outfield. They were stacked to make a run for it.

Then Bradley self-destructed (big surprise there), Figgins essentially decided to take the year off but still collect his paycheck and Kotchman proved that there was a significant reason why the Red Sox only used him as a “just-in-case” man. All of these things made Seattle believe they needed to move Lee for some bats. What will make them believe that this year?

In taking a look at Seattle’s roster, not much impresses me. There is the ageless Ichiro Suzuki manning the outfield, Justin Smoak at first and then there is…well…you tell me. Miguel Olivo is a decent enough catcher, batting .318 with Colorado last season, but then again, Chone Figgins was good before his move to Seattle.

Unfortunately, the Mariners’ Gold Glove center fielder, Franklin Gutierrez, has a stomach illness that they’re unable to diagnose, and thus he’s listed third on the depth chart at his position. It seems that the Mariners have big bat concerns.

As for its starting pitching, Seattle has King Felix and not much else to write home about. At this point the question becomes, what can you do to improve your team overall, and does keeping Hernandez actually hurt you since he can’t singlehandedly take you to the playoffs?

I argue that they have to trade the man. He is worth so much in return, especially to teams that have a legitimate shot at the playoffs this year. Seattle has little else in the way of trade chips; in fact, it has nothing else. Holding on to Hernandez would be the wrong move for the Mariners.

I understand that the fans will have to wait several more years for their team to be contenders, but with last year’s trade blunders behind them, it is time to start anew.

If you believe that King Felix needs to be traded, then the “who will take him” problem comes into play. There are the usual suspects, led by the New York Yankees.

It seems that the Bronx Bombers aren’t exactly awesome on the mound this year—at least not as awesome as they would like to be. CC Sabathia is followed by Phil Hughes (promising but not an ace), A.J. Burnett (overpaid and underperforming), Ivan Nova (who?) and finally Freddy Garcia (everybody rejoice—he won his final spring training game, whoop-dee-doo).

The Yankees brass knows that rotation won’t hold up to a healthy Red Sox lineup with additions Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, and that is whom they’re fighting for a playoff berth.

The Yankees are very much the team to beat in the King Felix trade discussions. The Phillies will be making a playoff run but have no room for Hernandez. Tell me where you would place King Felix in a rotation with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton.

On ESPN yesterday Curt Schilling projected the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL Central, and he may be right. They are looking very strong at the plate. It isn’t inconceivable that they would make a run at King Felix. Hernandez would make a very nice addition to a rotation led by youngster Yovani Gallardo.

But whom would they give up for the best pitcher in baseball? If they were making a World Series run, they would still need Prince Fielder’s bat in their lineup along with the other Brew Crew starters. Maybe they have an unbelievable farm system that Seattle can raid in return; I don’t know.

The Boston Red Sox have no need for Hernandez. They are pitching Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. All are under long-term contracts, and all are pretty damn good.

Maybe the Cubbies or Mets would take a run at the King, but I don’t see them landing him.

My take on Seattle’s situation is grim. They won’t make the playoffs by keeping King Felix, and they won’t make the playoffs by trading him, at least not this year. I project that Seattle shops him around before the deadline and that Hernandez gets snatched up by the only team in Major League Baseball that has the money, prospects and current roster players to make such a deal: the New York Yankees.

The Yanks were spurned by Cliff Lee and are scared of the Red Sox additions. With the Baltimore Orioles adding a lot of pop to their batting order this offseason, the boys in pinstripes are staring third place in the AL East squarely in the face. King Felix could change all of that.

By the trade deadline I see the Yankees mortgaging the farm to acquire Felix Hernandez and the remainder of his five-year, $78 million contract. I also see Seattle being the better for it in a couple of years when the zillions of top-rated prospects that they’ll surely get in return finally showcase their abilities at Safeco Field.

Speaking of the Yankees and pitchers, here is a little trivia for you. The Yankees had a guy pitching for them at one point who was the winningest left-handed pitcher in baseball over a three-year span. The twist is that he wasn’t pitching for the Bronx Bombers when he held this distinction. Can you name the player and the years?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

We’re counting down the hours to the start of baseball season.  Hopes are high in Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit and not so much in Cleveland and Kansas City, as the AL Central race is about to get under way.

Most pundits have the Twins, White Sox and Tigers battling it out for the division title while the Royals and Indians play hot potato for last place.

All of the expected front runners have their weaknesses and could use a little more help as the season rolls on.  There are a bunch of players that will be, or are, available who could help each team in this division.

I’ll propose one player acquisition for each team in the division that could push them over the top as the favorite to win the division.

For baseball purists, I’m not taking salaries, WAR stats, BABIP, etc., into account here.  This is just for fun and it’s trying to match up a player who’s either unhappy, on a terrible team or on an expiring contract in his current situation and extracting him from there and putting him on a AL Central team.

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