Kuzul

As we reach the midpoint of the season, the Florida Marlins have put themselves in an awkward position.

They are currently 38-43, fourth in the NL East division, and 9.5 games out of first place.

The record they have leaves them in a selling position, or does it?

Before we declare the Marlins sellers at this point in the season, we must ask ourselves these two questions:

Is the offense producing?

Yes.

Are the starting pitchers going deep into games?

Yes.

Based on these points alone, I can tell you that the Marlins should not be sellers. 

The two main things that make a good team are pitching and scoring runs. The Marlins have proved able to do both.

That means the things that make the Marlins lose is the sloppy defense and terrible bullpen.

Now how can the Marlins improve on this?

Well for starters, it is rather difficult to improve a defense without meddling with the offense, and I seriously doubt that’s the priority for the Marlins.

The current priority in Florida is the bullpen. 

The bullpen right now is made of Leo Nunez—a closer who has not proved to be consistent after blowing way too many saves—and a very consistent set-up man in Clay Hensley, and the rest…

The rest of the bullpen is just flat out terrible.

The Marlins keep on trying to use AAA relief pitchers hoping that they will do well, and, unfortunately, they don’t.

So the Marlins will want to be buyers in this trade deadline, in order to improve their bullpen. 

A selection of players who should be inquired about and pursued are the following:

Octavio Dotel, Matt Capps, Scott Downs, Kerry Wood, and Joakim Soria.

All of the relief pitchers mentioned should be heavily pursued, only if the Marlins can get themselves to a winning record by the end of the All-Star break. 

To conclude, the Marlins are neither sellers nor buyers, but they should be buyers, and they should try their best to get the bullpen help they desperately need.  

If they do get the bullpen help, I can almost guarantee that the Marlins will be back in playoff contention. 

If the Marlins management wants to win, it’s going to be this season. 

The Marlins have the stuff, and to sell it away would be pointless, since they only need to add three more decent relievers to the bullpen.

The last thing that I want to say is that the Marlins are in it to win it. Don’t count them out, because they have proved to be resilient in the past.

It’s just a matter of getting the starting pitching, offense, and bullpen in sync.

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With the July 31 trade deadline quickly approaching, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the teams who are considered buyers, what their needs are, and who they could possibly be targeting.

I am only concentrating on the teams that will be buyers, as there is no point in analyzing what a team like the Chicago Cubs might need because I really don’t have that kind of time.

We shall start in the National League East and work our way around the majors.

Atlanta Braves

Record: 48-35, first place in NL East

Needs: OF

The Braves have a rock solid starting rotation led by Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, and Tommy Hanson. They also have a bullpen that is third in the NL in ERA at 3.30.

What the Braves need is another outfielder.

With Nate McLouth still suffering concussion-like symptoms, Jason Heyward hurting, and Melky Cabrera predictably being a replacement level player, the Braves really could use another bat in the outfield.

Eric Hinkse has been a good lineup filler, but Bobby Cox can’t expect him to hit .280 all year. He is a career .255 hitter.

The Braves have also added Willy Tavares for outfield depth, but as we all know he isn’t the answer either.

Potential Targets

Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Aaron Rowand, Corey Hart, Jose Bautista.

New York Mets

Record: 46-35, second place in NL East. Lead Wild Card.

Needs: Starting Pitching, Setup Man

The Mets’ offense should be fine in the second half with the return of Carlos Beltran; It’s like the Mets are getting an All-Star caliber player without giving up anything. There bench should be strengthened with the return of Beltran because now either Angel Pagan or Jeff Francouer will be a fourth outfielder.

What the Mets need is another front-line starter to go along with Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey. R.A. Dickey has been unbelievable, but I think everyone is just waiting for that other shoe to drop.

If the Mets can go into a playoff series with Santana, Pelfrey, and another ace, they will be in good shape.

The one pitcher I think would be a good fit for the Mets would be Shaun Marcum. His elbow injury is not serious, and he has No. 2 or 3 starter stuff when healthy. He won’t be as flashy of an acquisition as Cliff Lee or Dan Haren would be, but he can get the job done.

I also feel the Mets could use a better bridge to get to Francisco Rodriguez.

Bobby Parnell has been good since his return to the majors, but the Mets could use another power arm from the right or left side late in the game.

Potential Targets

Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, Kevin Millwood, Shaun Marcum, Joel Hanrahan, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel.

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 42-38, third place in NL East. Fifth in Wild Card.

Needs: Infield, Starting Pitching, Bullpen

To quote the great Bull Hurley from Over the Top , the Phillies are in “a world of hurt.” They have so many needs right now that I don’t think they can fulfill them all at the trade deadline.

GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was so obsessed with Roy Halladay that he failed to realize that he didn’t make his team any better.

The Phillies have the same issue in 2010 that they have had the past two seasons—a lack of depth in the starting rotation.

Not only do the Phillies need starting rotation help, but they also need infield help thanks to the injuries to Chase Utley and Placido Polanco.

I don’t think they need a superstar to fill those voids, but someone like Ty Wigginton or Adam Kennedy will do.

The Phillies’ bullpen should get a boost with Ryan Madson scheduled to return after the All-Star break, but with Danys Baez struggling, they could use another arm in the pen.

Potential Targets

Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Kevin Millwood, Shaun Marcum, Ty Wigginton, Adam Kennedy, Mike Lowell, Willie Bloomquist, Jose Lopez, Miguel Tejada, Kelly Johnson, Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, Kerry Wood.

Florida Marlins

Record: 38-43, fourth in NL East. Seventh in Wild Card.

Needs: Bullpen, Defense

The Marlins should really be sellers, but they are so delusional sometimes that they will probably be buyers at the trade deadline.

The two things the Marlins need the most are bullpen help and anyone who can play defense.

Outside of closer Leo Nunez, who the Marlins stole from the Kansas City Royals in the Mike Jacobs trade, and setup man Clay Hensley, the Marlins bullpen is a mess.

Anytime a team has to resort to giving Armando Benitez a shot, you know they are in trouble.

I put defense on here because if you have ever watched the Marlins play, their defense is a joke.

If the Marlins can find players who can actually play defense, it will help their young pitching staff out now and in the future.

Potential Targets

Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Todd Coffey.

Tomorrow we will take a look at the NL Central buyers market.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Many times after jumping out to a sizable lead, the Florida Marlins’ bullpen gives fans a reason to be nervous; no matter how many innings the starter pitches.

The bullpen hasn’t been properly address by Flordia’s front office. 

Most good teams have a strong bullpen. In 2007 the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series thanks to a stellar bullpen. They rarely let leads slip away.

The exact opposite is happening to Florida this season.

In my opinion, the Marlins’ pen is just stuffed with useless Triple A rejects, that we frankly have never heard of. If these guys could produce then it would be a different story, but they don’t.

The Marlins just cannot find a consistent seventh to eighth inning guy, something that needs corrected in order to start a mid-season comeback..

Its time for Florida to stop thinking about the offensive and management problems and invest its time in finding some consistent bullpen help.

Sounds easy. Well it really isn’t that hard.

The Marlins are full of young talent, including some prospects that I consider expendable or useful for trades. I say now is time to make a trade giving the club a strong lefty pitcher, and a well known eighth inning guy.

For the lefty I would like to make a controversial move: get Dontrelle Willis.

He was traded to the Arizona Diamond Backs and he hasn’t found that much success there. He also has recently been moved to the pen. 

If the Diamond Backs aren’t pleased with his progress, I would strongly suggest for the Marlins to trade for him.

Willis could go back to where he was once successful and maybe make a new name for himself as a lefty specialist. If he progresses, who knows maybe a spot in the rotation awaits.

The other move that I would make involves signing a free agent.

David Weathers would be an option for me.

To sign him, it would mainly depend on what his physical conditions and throwing ability. If he proves that he can throw strikes, then the Marlins should definitely let him rejoin his old team. 

The Marlins last season signed Brendan Donnelly, a 40-year-old who had almost run out of options, but when he came to the team began to producing.

My last option is not a very realistic option, but it should be heavily considered.

The Marlins have always had big interest in Matt Capps, and he is having a banner season.

The problem is that the Washingtpn Nationals are certainly hesitant to trade him. But if the Nats are out of playoff contention, then the Marlins should definitely inquire about him.

He may not be the closer for the Marlins, but would be a definite lock for the set up man role. That would give Florida a great level of stability.

All of the options mentioned are part of some wishful thinking, but the Marlins definitely need to get serious in order to get to the playoffs.

If the Marlins can get back on track then we should see a lot more consistency on the field.

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It’s been reported that the Giants will be sending about $2 million along with Bengie Molina to Texas, which means the Giants got almost nothing for him unless Chris Ray ends up surprising almost everyone.

Even so, the Giants needed to get Posey into the line-up at catcher, and Bengie wouldn’t have been happy being the back-up catcher, regardless of how little he’s been hitting this year.  Still, I hate the idea of trading away a major league star when his value is at its lowest, just on principal.  At age 36, however, and having possibly the slowest legs in MLB, it’s doubtful that Molina’s trade value would have improved much unless he suddenly got red hot between now and the trade deadline.

Dave Cameron of fangraphs.com thinks that the Royals David DeJesus would be a perfect fit for the Giants because he gets on base and is having a career year.  DeJesus doesn’t hit into a whole lot of double plays, plays outfield defense and is under control for $6 million in 2011.  Cameron acknowledges that the Royals are rumored to be requesting the moon in a trade for DeJesus, but thinks there’s a deal to be made hear.

Like El Lefty Malo , I have my heart set on someone like Prince Fielder, who has real pop, which DeJesus obviously does not.  I could live with the Giants trading Jonathan Sanchez and a couple of top prospects (but not Madison Bumgarner) if it meant receiving Prince Fielder in return.

Like DeJesus, Fielder has one more year of control left before free agency.  However, Fielder is arbitration eligible this coming off-season and will almost certainly make more than $12 million next season.

The fact that DeJesus is having a career year so far doesn’t really impress me.  Fielder is a better hitter than DeJesus, and even though Fielder is having a down year so far, I would still bet on Fielder having the more productive second half of the 2010 season.

The single biggest drawback to Fielder, aside from the talent that would have to be sent to Milwaukee (although, as noted, Fielder’s trade value is down somewhat due to his slow start this year), is that Giants’ management has said they aren’t interested in “rental” players, and Fielder isn’t a good bet on a long-term $100 million+ contract, because of his body type.

SI.com lists Fielder’s present dimensions as 5’11″ and 268 lbs.  It’s awfully hard for guys who weigh that much to stay in the line-up once they reach age 29 or 30, particularly in the NL where they have to play the field.

In a totally unrelated note, the Marlins have been getting some flack for the way they handled their managerial search after canning Fredi Gonzalez.  Here’s an article from Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post with critical comments by Bobby Valentine, who didn’t get the job, and former Mets GM and now commentator Jim Duquette.

Bobby Valentine is a good manager, but he’s kind of a hot-head, which may not be the best thing for a perennially young team like the Marlins.  Also, I’m pleased to see somebody new, in this case Edwin Rodriguez, get a shot.

I was surprised, and a little disgusted, to hear that Rodriguez is the first person of Puerto Rican descent ever to manage in the major leagues.  Given how many Puerto Ricans have played in the majors since the 1950′s, it’s well past time that somebody hire a Puerto Rican manager.  It certainly doesn’t hurt if the team doing so plays in South Florida, with its substantial Latino population.

Experienced former managers are always going to be around for another hurrah, so why not try somebody new first and see if he can bring something new and valuable to the table?

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No more interim label. No more sentimental stories about becoming the first Puerto Rican to manage in the Major Leagues.

From now on, Edwin Rodriguez is the man.

No doubt, Florida Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria hit the equivalent of a home run.

Loria named Rodriguez his manager for the remainder of the season in his own backyard in Puerto Rico during the San Juan Series 2010 at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in the three-game series against the New York Mets.

Rodriguez was named interim manager last June 23 when Florida fired Fredi Gonzalez, its all-time “winning-est” skipper. Gonzalez was dismissed after going 276-279 in 3½ seasons.

However, Loria is giving Rodriguez the responsibility of making his dreams come true.

Since spring training, Loria has said that he entered this season with expectations for the Marlins to be a playoff contender and nothing less.

Loria surely hopes that Rodriguez will pull out some kind of sorcery like Jack McKeon did back in 2003.

In 2003, Loria had the same expectations from his team: a post-season appearance.

After a 16-22 start, manager Jeff Torborg was fired and veteran McKeon was hired to replace him. He led the team to the 2003 World Series victory against the New York Yankees.

It all sounds like a magic trick. However, Loria is well known and will not accept excuses.

Seven years ago the Marlins were in fourth place and 11 games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves in National League East. As of June 29 this season, the situation looks similar. The Marlins have a 36-40 record and are in fourth place, eight and one half games behind Atlanta.

Rodriguez knows that this is his big chance.

Only in October we will know if his adventure turns into a fortuitous reality. Who knows? He could be the second Latin American Manager to win a World Series.

Rodriguez should ask for advice from Ozzie Guillen. In 2003, Guillen was the third base coach for the championship Marlins team, and later on, the man of the moment lifted from the bench his 2005 Chicago White Sox World Championship.

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Ubaldo Jimenez has been absolutely filthy through 16 starts this season, going 14-1 with a Bob Gibson-like 1.83 ERA. The 26-year-old flame thrower even tossed a no-hitter back on April 17 .

Likewise, Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson boasts a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 16 starts, but hasn’t gotten the luck or the run support that Jimenez has.

While Colorado’s ace has struggled in his last two starts, Johnson has continued to dominate.

After a closer look, it’s become obvious that Johnson has outdueled the N.L. Cy Young favorite through the first three months in nearly every major pitching category:

Side notes:

FIP (fielder independent pitching) is a stat that measures factors only the pitcher can control. This helps us understand how well a pitcher has pitched, regardless of the defense behind him.

xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) is an experimental stat which adjusts FIP and “normalizes” home run totals. Because research has indicated that home runs are a result of fly balls allowed and home parks, xFIP can be used to measure a pitcher’s expected ERA based on the average number of homers allowed per fly ball. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s future ERA.

Using these stats to evaluate these two pitchers, we can conclude that:

• Johnson (2.47 FIP) has been better than Jimenez (3.07) this season.
• Johnson (3.16 xFIP) should continue to out-pitch Jimenez (3.68 xFIP) in the future.

Even if you toss out Jimenez’s recent struggles, (which have accounted for 18 percent of his total hits allowed and 43 percent of his total earned runs allowed this season), you can still argue that Johnson has been just as good:

Taking it one step further, Johnson has clearly outperformed Jimenez in other pitching categories such as:

• O-Swing rate (percent of batter’s that swing at pitches off the plate)
• Contact rate (percent of contact made on all pitches)
• First-pitch strike rate (percent of first-pitch strikes thrown)
• Swinging strike rate (percent of pitches which result in a swinging strike)

In fact, Jimenez has been no more than an average pitcher by these standards, while Johnson ranks 17th, third, 12th, and second in these categories among qualified starters.

Now don’t get it twisted; I envy Ubaldo’s ridiculous pitching repertoire as much as the next guy. I refused to be blinded by win totals and ESPN, however, and therefore believe that Josh Johnson has been (and will continue to be) the better pitcher.

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Since the departure of manager Fredi Gonzalez, there has been a great deal of uncertainty regarding who will be the Florida Marlins manager, until Tuesday when Jeffrey Loria announced that Edwin Rodriguez will be the manager for the rest of the season.

This means that Bobby Valentine and Bo Porter are officially out of the running for the big job. 

The announcement of this came right before the Tuesday game, Jeffrey Loria huddled the players together and made the announcement, he made the decision because he felt that it was something the players wanted, and rightfully so they applauded and celebrated the new Rodriguez era.

This week so far has been extremely special for him, as he has become the first Puerto Rican manager in the history of the sport, he is celebrating the joy of being with his family, and has officially been named the Florida Marlins manager. 

Doesn’t get better than that Edwin.

Being that he has been named manager there are great expectations of him, and right now the Marlins are swinging the bat better and the pitching is starting to get rock solid. 

If the Marlins want to push for a playoff position Rodriguez needs to fight hard for this team, and make the right decisions.

Also this Marlins team needs to start winning games, and so far in the San Juan series they have been looking solid offensively. Hanley is going back to his RBI producing form and the team is going through a power surge. 

Though Rodriguez isn’t my favorite choice to manage the team, I’m sure he’ll give his best in order to lead this team to at least a winning record before the all-star break.

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Simply call it perfect timing.

It’s only fitting that MLB’s first Puerto Rican-born manager stood in Hiram Bithorn Stadium for baseball’s return to the island.

Edwin Rodriguez’s story, though uncertain with the mystery surrounding who will be the Florida Marlins’ permanent manager, is a good one. 

He lives five minutes from the stadium.

More than 150 people greeted him at the airport and began chanting his name when the Marlins arrived.

Owner Jeffrey Loria told Rodriguez that he should be first off the team bus as it reached the hotel. His mother, who rarely drives, was waiting for him. 

Better than any weekday game at Sun Life Stadium, 18,703 fans watched Rodriguez become the first Puerto Rican native to win a major league game on the island.

It was a party from the beginning, with noisemakers that would put vuvuzelas to shame.

From drums to singing, fans relished the return of baseball.

The Montreal Expos and Florida Marlins were the last two teams to play in San Juan in 2004, when the Expos played part of their home schedule in the U.S. territory. 

As part of MLB’s initiative to expand the sport more globally, the New York Mets and Fish finalized a deal during Spring Training.

For Florida, it was a no-brainer.

With Miami’s close proximity to the Caribbean, it’s an excuse to reach out to a new fan base. As Marlins Ballpark continues to be built in Little Havana, the front office hopes that fans from Latin America will visit in 2012 and beyond.

Plus, it’s a different atmosphere from the troubling problems back home following a sweep by the NL West-leading San Diego Padres.

Whether Rodriguez is promoted from his role as interim manager remains to be seen. His record is 2-4 since his “call-up” from Triple-A New Orleans.

Reports state that talks with Bobby Valentine have stalled.

Rodriguez played just three years in the majors and never found the success fellow countrymen Roberto Clemente and Pudge Rodriguez did on the baseball diamond.

But his achievements over the past week might be more meaningful.

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The Marlins’ recent decision to fire Fredi Gonzalez has not worked out so far. They were just swept by the Padres, and on top of that, Bobby Valentine, their primary managerial target, will probably not join the squad because of philosophical differences.

What does this mean to Marlins fans?

It means the Marlins will probably not land a top-notch manager for the rest of the season. Let’s discuss two in-house candidates, including the current interim manager.

Edwin Rodriguez has been abysmal in his first four games. He has lacked authority while talking to umpires, and making hard decisions. It seems as if he isn’t comfortable when having to fight for his team.

Bo Porter may just land the top job. He used to work with the Marlins as a third base coach, and he is the favorite now, I say this because of his experience with the players and the front office.

Porter and Rodriguez have already interviewed formally for the position, so if Valentine hasn’t been formally contacted or interviewed in the next few days, I’d consider him permanently out of the running.

Right now, the Marlins are staying with Edwin Rodriguez, but if their play continues to be sloppy, I wouldn’t be surprised if they demote him back to Triple-A, and call in Bo Porter.

Bobby Valentine may still end up managing the Marlins because he has a good relationship with owner, Jeffrey Loria.  You never know, they could sign him out of nowhere. 

A similar about-face happened during Josh Johnson’s recent contract negotiations. There was an impasse, until surprisingly, the Marlins resigned him to a lucrative deal.

So keep an eye out! The Marlins front office is rather unpredictable, and we could be surprised yet.

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman is reporting that Bobby Valentine is going to be the next manager of the Florida Marlins.

A source close to the team has told Heyman that the Marlins have a tentative deal with the former Rangers and Mets skipper.

It is being reported that Valentine could take over managerial duties as early as Monday. That is when the Marlins will be beginning a three-game series at home against his old team—the New York Mets.

ESPN previously reported that the Marlins were prepared to offer Valentine a four-year contract to manage the team.

The Marlins job became available after the team fired Fredi Gonzalez on Wednesday. That same day, Valentine withdrew his name from consideration for the Baltimore Orioles’ vacancy.

He’s coming into a familiar situation, having managed in the NL East for seven seasons from 1996-2002.

He’ll also be taking over a competitive Florida Marlins team. They are 35-37 and only six-and-a-half games behind Atlanta for the division lead.

Oh, and the Marlins are getting a fancy new stadium in 2012 equipped with a retractable roof and an aquarium behind home plate.

Valentine isn’t the only winner in the deal.

The Marlins are getting a veteran manager with a winning record (1,117-1,072) and a World Series appearance.

Not too bad.

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