Kuzul

The 2011 baseball season is upon us, and that can only mean one thing for eager fans: a fresh start.  With hopes of celebratory bliss, you announce confidently, “this is our year,” as you retrieve the enormous foam finger lodged behind your bed. The once prized possession is now dusted with crumb remnants and dead ants. 

While one’s prophecies for the upcoming season may be nothing more than fantasy, players must approach each year with the goal to maintain past success, improve on past failures, or return from an injury, thus proving they still are one of the elite.  No player is more eager to prove he can return to greatness than Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan.    

Nathan made great progress this spring and has reestablished himself as Minnesota’s closer to open the season. This tale, however, is not about Nathan’s return to the mound.  This is a tortuous reminder to all San Francisco Giants fans who still cringe when his name is spoken. A four-time All-Star, Nathan is nothing less than a savior to Minnesota  faithful, but to Giants aficionados, like the ex-girlfriend you let slip through your fingers when you stupidly answered yes to “do these jeans make me look fat,” he is merely the one who got away.  

This June, the Twins will visit San Francisco for the first time since the 2003 trade that sent Nathan to Minnesota. Like a nerd coming back for his twenty-year reunion driving a Porsche, and sporting a hot blonde on his arm, the elite closer will return with a chest full of accolades acquired since.

In November of 2003, Giants General Manager Brian Sabean, traded Nathan, along with Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano,  for catcher A.J. Piersynksi.  At the time, everything appeared safe.  Piersynksi was a player about to hit his prime at a hard-to- fill position, and only Nathan had any major league experience at that point. The result?  You’d be hard pressed to find one person who would argue against it being the worst trade in San Francisco’s history.

Sabean has made a career of upsetting fans at the time of a deal yet, somehow, many work out in the end.  So what happened with this one?  Was the departure of these now American League all-stars a result of miscalculation, poor scouting, and an itchy trigger finger, or just an anomaly, resulting in a case of inauspicious hindsight? 

How has Sabean really fared in his assessment of young pitching talent? At this point everyone knows the names Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner, but that staff didn’t get assembled without some bumps in the road; Nate Bumps to be exact.

Below are some of Sabean’s trades involving young pitchers. Some left fans day dreaming of memories past, while others left fellow GMs holding a bag of Sabean Fool’s Gold.  

THE ONES WHO GOT AWAY 

4. Jeremy Accardo to Toronto for Vinnie Chulk & Shea Hillenbrand (July 2006)

Sure, Accardo hasn’t amounted to a whole lot since; however, the year after he was traded he racked up 30 saves and a 2.14 ERA for Toronto while loathed Giant closer Armando Benetiz saved just nine games, blew a handful of others and was traded mid-season.  

3. David Aardsma & Jerome Williams to Chicago Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins (May 2005)

Aardsma, one of many first round picks Sabean has dealt during his tenure, bounced around for a few seasons before finally settling in as the closer for Seattle in 2009.  That year he saved 38 games then followed it up with 31 in 2010.  When healthy, he is slated for closing duties again this season, proving to be a valued commodity in the Mariner’s bullpen.  Would the Giants have wanted to wait four years for a guy who would’ve just pissed off the team seamstress by using up all her “A” letters?  The prognosis is no, but good bullpen help is always hard to find, especially one with closing ability – just ask Armando Benetiz haters. 

2. Keith Foulke, Bobby Howry & others for Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin & Roberto Hernandez (July 1997)

All three players obtained somewhat helped bring a National League West title to San Francisco in 1997, but Sabean left the dog door open and Keith Foulke quietly escaped into the night to go on to save 191 career games, as well as bring a World Series title to Boston in 2004.  See aforementioned prognosis for Aardsma, minus the nagging seamstress.

1. Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano & Boof Bonser for A.J. Piersynksi (November 2003)

Looking to upgrade the catcher position after the departure of Benito Santiago, Sabean made what is regarded the worst trade of his tenure, giving up Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser, for problematic A.J. Piersynksi. Bonser, rated the 29th best prospect in 2002 was actually the prized piece of the deal, but he isn’t the one fans have lost sleep over. He has been no better than a 5th starter for any team since the deal. Liriano took the A.L. by storm when he broke into the majors a year later, and after being derailed by an arm injury he has once again established himself as one of the best lefties in the game atop the Twins rotation.   Nathan has gone on to make four all-star appearances, and has been one of the game’s best closers over the past six seasons.   

Piersysnki was released the following season.

 
SABEAN FOOLS GOLD

5.  Jason Grilli & Nate Bump to Florida for Livan Hernandez (July 1999) 

Rarely in any sport do you see consecutive year first round picks traded in the same deal, but when the Giants dealt for inning-eater Livan Hernandez at the trade deadline in 1999 this rarity became a reality.  Grilli, the fourth overall pick in 1997 seemed poised for a brilliant major league career, but Sabean sent the Seton Hall alum to Miami along with 1998 first rounder Nate Bump.

Grilli was a top 50 prospect at the time, and Bump had shown promise in the minors, posting a sub 1.75 ERA in each of his first two seasons. Dealing two 1st round prospects for a pitcher who was 5-9 at the time would make even the most unknowledgeable fan question sanity, but amazingly Sabean came out smelling like a rose.   

Hernandez went on to win 45 games for the Giants while Grilli became nothing more than a journeyman reliever. Nate Bump pitched in just three partial seasons for Florida with the last being in 2005. 

4. Jesse Foppert (and Yorvit Torrealba) to Seattle for Randy Winn (July 2005)

Foppert, the fifth rated prospect by Baseball America in 2003 was San Francisco’s Lincecum, before there was Lincecum. He had a promising 2003 and was a fixture in the starting rotation for a team that won the National League Western Division, but promise quickly turned to pain killers as multiple injuries to his throwing elbow sent his career into a tailspin.

Before the completion of his comeback Sabean sent the once can’t-miss prospect to Seattle for consistent, but not flashy, Randy Winn.  Despite the injuries, the Bay Area product was a fan favorite, and many were sad to see him go. In the end it was the right move. Winn went on to start in right field for SF for the next four and a half seasons, and was seventh in the N.L. in hitting in 2008.  Foppert never pitched in the Majors again.  

3. Kurt Ainsworth (and Damian Moss) to Baltimore for Sidney Ponson (July 2003) 

Another first round pick (1999), Ainsworth followed the orange and black brick road right out of San Francisco, like his fellow first rounders of the past.  Like Foppert, Ainsworth cracked the rotation in 2003, posting a winning record and sub-4 ERA in 11 starts, but was traded before the deadline for often lazy and rarely effective Sidney Ponson.

Ponson won only three games the rest of year for SF, and cost the Giants in additional food catering services due to his insatiable appetite, but once again Sabean made the right call.  Ainsworth would pitch only two innings in the Majors after the trade, and is rumored to be working in the giraffe exhibit at a Baltimore zoo.  (Don’t get me wrong, giraffes are amazing creatures – I’m just saying.)

2. Tim Alderson to Pittsburgh for Freddie Sanchez (July 2009)

In what was regarded as a bit of a haphazard deal at the time, Sabean dealt the No. 2 prospect in the organization for a powerless and injury plagued second baseman.  At the time of the trade, Freddie Sanchez couldn’t even play due to injury.  Who trades the 45th ranked Major League prospect and his miniscule ERA for a beaten up player who can’t even suit up?   Could he have traded for someone better at the time? Yes. Could he have given up a lesser prospect to get Sanchez? Yes.  Did the trade work out?

Alderson posted a whopping 6.03 ERA in 25 minor league starts in 2010 and was demoted to Single-A before season’s end.  Sanchez went on to help San Francisco bring home its first World Championship, contributing with three doubles to set a World Series record in Game 1, and will take the field on opening day 2011.  Enough said.

1. Ryan Vogelsong (and Armando Rios) to Pittsburgh for Jason Schmidt (July 30th, 2001) 

Ok, so Ryan Vogelsong can hardly be considered a prospect, but then again neither was Jason Schmidt at the time.  Schmidt immediately blossomed in the organization, establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in the National League and led the team to post-season births in 2002 and 2003. Vogelsong amassed 10 wins over six seasons with the Pirates. He is now back with the organization this spring vying for a spot on San Francisco’s opening day roster. 

Honorable Mention:

Not trading Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios (after 2007 season)

San Francisco was desperate for a bat, and Lincecum was an emerging superstar.  The deal was more than just a rumor, but luckily dissipated like a phantom in the night once cries were heard from Giant faithful. 

All in all, Sabean has done a decent job at assessing pitching talent, confidently trading away first round pick after first round pick, only to see them flounder in their new homes. He has created one of the best starting pitching staffs and despite it taking 17 years, he hasn’t given up a whole lot (other than a guy 30th on the all-time saves list, one of the best left-handed starters in the American League and a guy who was on the mound when the Red Sox brought home a Championship after 86 years). 

When Nathan comes trotting out of the bullpen later this season during his team’s stop in San Franciso, Giant fans can dream about what could have been, but ultimately be happy about what has been. 

Sabean has been forgiven. 

Go Giants. 

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Opening Day for the Minnesota Twins is only a week away.

On Wednesday Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire had the first glimpse of what his Opening Day lineup would look like as right fielder Michael Cuddyer finally made his spring debut with the major league club after three minor league games. 

Two of the up-and-coming stars for the Twins from 2010 have picked up right where they left off—third baseman Danny Valencia is hitting .340 and right fielder Delmon Young is hitting .424 this spring—and Minnesota’s biggest acquisition, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, has a .357 batting average and appears ready to face major league pitching.

All’s well in Twins’ Territory—right?

Maybe not. Here are the biggest questions facing the Minnesota Twins as they look to win their third consecutive AL Central Division title.

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In 2006, a flame-throwing rookie took the baseball world by storm. Ranked the sixth-best prospect in the game on Baseball America‘s preseason list, he surpassed even the wildest expectations people had for him, going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA (2.55 FIP, 2.35 xFIP) and earned 4.1 WAR in 121 innings.

His name was Francisco Liriano, and he quickly emerged as the Twins‘ best starter—no easy feat considering his teammate, Johan Santana, went on to win the AL Cy Young.

Then disaster struck. Elbow pain limited Liriano to just two starts after July 28, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in November.

He missed the entire 2007 season, and wasn’t quite himself for two years afterwards. He went 11-17 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 212 2/3 innings from 2008-9. His breakout rookie season seemed like a fluke, and Liriano had gained a reputation as inconsistent and injury-prone.

Butast winter, something changed, and Liriano rediscovered his lost talent. In 37 innings of work in the Dominican League, he posted a 0.49 ERA. More importantly, he showed the overpowering stuff (10.9 K/9) he had lost since his debut season while bringing his walks under control (1.7 BB/9).

The stage was set for a monster year, and Liriano did not disappoint.

In 31 starts—2010 was the first time he’d managed more than 25—he went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA. In 191 2/3 innings, he racked up 201 strikeouts while allowing only 58 walks.

He earned 6.0 WAR for a Twins team that won its division by six games. In other words, Minnesota probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs without Liriano.

Liriano simply dominated opposing hitters. His 9.4 K/9 rate was second in the league, behind only Jon Lester. Batters chased his out-of-zone pitches at a 34.4 percent clip—good for fourth in baseball—and his 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate was the best in the game. PitchFx had his fastball averaging 94.2 mph, and no pitcher did more damage with his slider than Liriano (FanGraphs’ pitch weights had him at 19.0 wSL).

And yet, Liriano was actually extremely unlucky. His .331 BABIP was the second-highest in baseball. Yes, groundball pitchers like Liriano tend to have higher hit rates than their fly ball-inducing counterparts, but his xBABIP was exactly .300.

What might Liriano’s season have looked like with neutral luck? His 2.66 FIP put him second in the league, behind only rightful Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. The 96-point difference between his FIP and ERA marks him as the unluckiest pitcher in the AL.

Liriano’s 2.93 tERA puts him fourth in the Junior Circuit, way ahead of Cy Young candidates David Price (3.27), CC Sabathia (3.44) and Clay Buchholz (3.92).

XFIP was the least generous of the ERA estimators, putting Liriano at 3.06. And yet, that was good enough to beat every other qualified pitcher in baseball not named Roy Halladay.

What does this mean for Liriano’s 2011 season? Assuming his peripherals hold up, we could very well be looking at the best pitcher in baseball.

As his BABIP falls, his WHIP will follow. Fewer hits means a higher strand rate (Liriano’s 73.1 LOB% last year looks fine, but one would expect a pitcher of his caliber post an above-average mark), and fewer base-runners scoring at a lower rate will do wonders for his ERA.

If he can keep his HR/FB rate down—and a pitcher of his caliber shouldn’t have too much trouble controlling the long ball at Target Field—there’s no reason his ERA wouldn’t regress towards his 2.66 FIP.

Plus, fewer base-runners means fewer hitters. That will make his innings go by faster, allowing him to pitch deeper into games. He averaged less than 6.1 innings a start in 2010 and didn’t throw a single complete game. Fewer runs and more innings mean more wins.

The scary part? It seems like Liriano has been around forever, but in fact he is only 27 years old. Given his age, he could conceivably get even better this year. Twenty wins, an ERA around 2.00 and more than 200 innings are well within the realm of possibility for Liriano.

Of course, it would be ridiculous to expect a season that incredible from anyone outside a video game console. Moreover, while Liriano seems perfectly healthy now, there’s always a shadow of doubt for pitchers with his kind of injury history.

And while regression to his luck-neutral statistics is the most likely outcome, it’s no guarantee. If you roll two dice you’re always most likely to get a seven, but that doesn’t mean you’ll never roll snake eyes.

Earlier this winter, I projected Liriano to go 16-8 with a 2.92 ERA, backed up by 211 strikeouts and 63 walks in 204 IP, which would clearly make him one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Could he beat my prediction? Absolutely. He may have the highest upside of any starter in the game, and he could go on to have a truly historic season.

Don’t count on Liriano’s stats matching up with his luck-neutral numbers from last season, but the sky is the limit when he takes the mound in 2011.

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com. Follow him on Twitter @LewsOnFirst or @WahooBlues.

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Small market teams don’t trade away a player that they control with two years to go before free agency.  Most teams would try to get the most out of him before trading such a player away. 

Which leaves me to the Twins floating around Francisco Liriano’s name out in trade winds and more than likely trading him away this season.

Francisco Liriano is a solid pitcher.  His stats in 2010 were 14-10 with an ERA of 3.62, throwing 191.2 innings and striking out 201 in 31 starts.  Also impressive was his 0.4 HR/9 innings which led all of baseball. 

With all those great stats, why would the Twins be ready to unload such a talented pitcher so fast?

The Twins are the defending Central Division champions and are probably one of the favorites to win the division again.

With a lineup that includes Morneau, Mauer, Thome, Cuddyer, and Dimitri Young  and a solid rotation that includes Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey and the returning Joe Nathan, it makes no sense to trade away such a talented pitcher. 

Something doesn’t add up here. 

Liriano is a player who already has driven the Twins nuts because of his conditioning to the point where his own pitching coach called him out.  The alleged staff ace lost his Opening Day start to Carl Pavano because of his weight. 

The last time most Yankee fans saw Francisco Liriano pitch, he was blowing a 3-0 lead in Game 1 of the 2010 Division Series as he grew tired in the top of the sixth inning.  Not something that makes you want to add such “ace” to your staff. 

There is no need to make a rush decision for a starter especially since we haven’t even played a game yet.

Ian Nova is still only 24 years old and has gradually moved up the Yankees system to the majors.  Nova did a decent job in his seven starts in late August and September.  While his numbers didn’t overwhelm most, he did keep his team in the game and give them a chance to win. 

The rumors are the Yankees will deal Joba, Nova and another prospect for Liriano.

I hope the Yankees don’t pull the the trigger and get another team’s problem.  We have all seen what happens to head cases in NY. The Yankees already have their own problem in AJ Burnett and we’re going to add Liriano to this mix. 

I hope the Yankees just say NO.  Wait until May before you need to make a move. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle with Nova or Garcia.

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Francisco Liriano has been on top of many recent MLB trade rumors, and teams all around the league seem to be questioning his availability.

Pitching in the Major Leagues can help take a franchise to the top and acquiring a player like Liriano could make or break a team that is looking toward the postseason.

The following are ten teams that could eventually make a deal for the pitcher and should be very interested in his market value.

The list begins with the Atlanta Braves…

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With the recent trade talk involving the Yankees going after the Twins’ Francisco Liriano, who should the Yankees be going after instead?  

While I think the Yankees acquiring Francisco Liriano would be a great benefit to the starting rotation, it is bound to come at a high price (Jesus Montero and several of the young Yankees pitching prospects) for a pitcher who will be either the number two or number three pitcher. 

Even though Liriano is the best pitcher currently available in the trade market, there are others who are available that would cost less (in terms of money or prospects).

Why are the Yankees even bothering to get another pitcher? Don’t they have a bunch of young prospects and former Major Leaguers they signed this offseason? Yes, but the Yankees always want to win and in order to do that you need a solid pitching rotation, not one with a solid number one pitcher followed by four question marks.

If they can shore up just one more rotation spot before the season starts, they’ll feel better overall about their chances.

I came up with a list of seven players, some are targets the Yankees stand a better chance of acquiring, others are long shots that will have to wait till at least June to see if they’re even available and two are still free agents.  

Let’s start with the free agents available because they wouldn’t cost the Yankees any prospects and thus would cost the Yankees the least. 

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It’s been a big offseason for starting pitchers on the move.

After months of speculation, Cliff Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in the free-agent frenzy of the winter. The Milwaukee Brewers emptied their farm system for trade-market equivalent Zack Greinke and the Chicago Cubs then gave up an arguably better package of prospects for the good-not-great Matt Garza.

Even lesser pitchers Carl Pavano and Jake Westbrook each got $16.5 million as free agents. Fausto Carmona’s name came up in multiple conversations and names like Brandon Webb, Brad Penny and Javier Vazquez were the subjects of persistent rumors as well.

Now, with MLB‘s winter recess over and spring training underway, a new name has ignited flames on the hot stove: Francisco Liriano.

The seed was planted earlier this month when, after talking to Twins team officials, the Minnesota Star-Tribune‘s Joe Christensen wrote that he was “surprised how open they are” to trading Liriano. Since then, USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale has reported that the New York Yankees are “keeping a close eye” on the Twins ace, while Minnesota was “keeping tabs on” Bombers prospects.

I know I’m not the first person to have this reaction, but there’s one little problem with the idea of the Twins unloading Liriano now: It doesn’t many any sense whatsoever.

First of all, the Twins are the reigning AL Central champions and they figure to at least be serious contenders again in 2011. That’s not the kind of situation that would motivate most teams to deal their best pitcher.

Minnesota didn’t face any serious challengers in 2010, but their six-game advantage over the second-place White Sox is too small for the Twins to feel fully secure about another title this year. Plus, their main competition, the White Sox and Detroit Tigers, have upgraded this winter by bringing in Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez, respectively; unless they got equivalent big-league talent in return, trading their ace would be enough for the Twins to lost their status as preseason favorites.

But beyond that, trading Liriano would be stupid because—strange as it may sound for a pitcher who went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA last year—his trade value is too low.

Impressive as his stats may be, Liriano in fact suffered from miserable luck in 2011. His .331 BABIP was the second-highest in baseball among qualified pitchers, behind only James Shields (.341).

How big of a difference did that make? Consider this: Liriano posted a 2.66 FIP (a better predictor of future ERA than past ERA), good for second in the AL. His 3.06 xFIP was the best in the league. A couple of bad bounces and some poor backing defense were all that separated him from a prominent spot in the Cy Young conversations.

Not convinced? Consider this: FanGraphs’ wins above replacement statistic (which uses FIP instead of ERA) has him at 6.0 WAR for 2010. Remember how big the Twins’ lead over the White Sox was? Without Liriano anchoring Minnesota’s staff, the AL Central ends in a tie.

In addition, inquiring GMs will be weary of Liriano’s inconsistent track record. After going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA as a rookie in 2006, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which cost him the entire 2007 season. In 43 games in 2008-09, he went 11-17 with a 5.12 ERA.

Given Liriano’s exceptional peripherals, previously demonstrated talent and age (he’s only 27), there’s no reason to think he can’t continue to play at this level or even improve.

Unless the Twins know something we don’t (maybe his elbow’s acting up again?)—in which case, any suitor would demand the relevant information—why would they sell one of the best young pitchers in the game for the price of an inconsistent starter who’d just had a very good-but-not-great year? Especially right before the start of a season when they’re planning to play well into October?

Of course, this is all assuming the Twinkies don’t get a fair offer, and if the pitching-starved Yankees are indeed after him, they might be desperate enough to over pay. But it’s hard to see Minnesota getting a decent return on an investment that could cost them the season.

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com. Follow him on Twitter @LewsOnFirst or @WahooBlues.

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A good starting rotation can cure many ills, and with the AL Central up for grabs like it normally is, whoever assembles the strongest rotation could easily take the division come September. There is some real pitching talent in the division, but we’ve also lost three of the last four AL Cy Young Award winners (CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke).

At the end of the year, whichever rotation fares best will probably get a chance to strut their stuff in the postseason. With that, let’s take a look at how the AL Central’s rotations stand up to each other.

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With spring training in full bloom, it’s never too early to start thinking ahead. For all the promise teams show at this stage of the game, there is always the possibility of finishing below expectations. When that happens, there will be plenty of teams trying to make the best of a bad situation.

Whether that’s taking care of their economic safety or trying to put the pieces in place to build for the future, changes will be made.

The biggest chip most teams have is their staff ace. There is no bigger commodity in baseball than a pitcher with experience, promise or a balanced combination of both. So when things go south for a team, or a glaring need arises elsewhere, a team might be forced to part with their most proven arm.

The good news is that wherever an ace is available, interested parties aren’t far away. So here’s a look at the 10 staff aces most likely to be traded this season. 

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Because they’re the Twins, people generally expect their rotation to come through as expected. 
But let’s quickly run though their five projected starters:

Francisco Liriano is simply put, Jekyll and Hyde. Scott Baker has missed time in every season but one because of injury and has a career ERA of 4.32. Carl Pavano is 35-years-old and recently went five years between double-digit win seasons. Kevin Slowey has a career ERA of 4.41 and almost never hits 90 mph. And to wrap up the rotation is Nick Blackburn who was banished to the minors last year and has never had a winning record. Unless they change their minds and go with Brian Duensing, a converted reliever who was very solid in the second half last year.

But, it’s the Twins, and they know how to win, just don’t put *too* much stock in their fantasy prowess.

Except for Liriano, that is. Though he can be a tale of two pitchers (two seasons where he averaged 1.1 Ks per inning, two seasons where he averaged .88 Ks per inning with loads more walks and a WHIP nearly twice as high), Liriano – when healthy – is one of the few pitchers in baseball who can ring up 200 strikeouts. 

The “when healthy” issue is an open one. He already had some shoulder soreness this spring, but his ability to strike people out, not give up the long ball (only nine home runs allowed in 191 innings in 2010), keep a manageable WHIP and rack up double digit wins are all big-time fantasy assets. 

I wouldn’t put Francisco in the elite group of starters (Halladay, King Felix, Verlander, Lester, etc), but just a notch below. He should go in the 6th or 7th round and get about $20 at auction.

Scott Baker is next, with his career 4.32 ERA and injury history. Baker has loads of talent and a couple of good seasons under his belt (2008 and 2009), but he took a major step backwards in 2010. 

Baker’s ERA has climbed for three years running (3.45, 4.37, 4.49) as has his WHIP (1.18,1.19, 1.34). His BAA skyrocketed last year to .277, and his BABIP rose 47 points to .323.  And that’s the biggest difference between his 2008-2009 run and 2010 – that BABIP. 

All the other numbers – LOB %, GB% FB%, walks, etc – stayed fairly constant, but the fact that he was significantly more prone to giving up hits on balls in play, made his season that much worse.

If Baker can return his BABIP to the .270 range, he can be an excellent value pick. Watch for him in the late rounds or for less than $10 at auction.

Carl Pavano, a starter who wasn’t bought in my AL league last year, became a huge part of my title run.

In 2009, Pavano had a dismal 5.10 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, but broke out in 2010 with 17 wins, seven complete games, a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He had the second lowest full-season BABIP of his career, and parlayed that into a sweet $16.5 million contract.

Though Carl could continue to surprise, I don’t put much stock in him. I wouldn’t choose him before the 20th round in a 12 team mixed league, or pay more than $5 for him in AL-only league.  The proof? I’m not even keeping him at $6.

Fourth is Kevin Slowey, a guy I had liked for a number of years and now, well, don’t. 

Yes, he won 13 games last year and pitches for a good team – which makes him worthy of AL-only ownership and deep mixed league consideration, but he’s been hurt all three years of his major league career and only once had an ERA below 4.45.

Slowey has never averaged more than seven strikeouts per nine innings, and consistently gives up more than a hit per inning.

Relying more and more on his slower two-seam fastball, slider and curveball, Slowey is in danger of becoming a 26-year-old junk ball pitcher. 

Honestly, he’s not worth a mixed league draft choice above the 21st round, or more than $5-8 at auction.

Finally, Nick Blackburn vs Brian Duensing – the former is a model of consistency and, unfortunately, of mediocrity. 

11-11 in both 2008 and 2009, Blackburn found himself banished to the minors for a few starts in 2010, only to be recalled and finish with a 10-12 record. His career ERA is 4.50, WHIP is 1.40, BAA of .296 and has never struck out 100 guys in a season.  He is the very definition of a $1/23rd round pick in AL only, and ignorable in mixed leagues. 

The latter, Duensing, is intriguing only because he had a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts last year (2.62 overall) and won ten games down the stretch. He was lucky, though, owning a very high LOB percentage (over 81 percent) and low BABIP of .272 – and he only struck out 5.4 guys per 9 innings (and you know how I feel about starters with low K/9). That said, he’s worth a couple dollars pitching for a good team in a pitchers’ ballpark.

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THE FANTASY FIX 2011 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT IS NOW AVAILABLE!

Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com.  Be sure to check back every Wednesday during the season for Jesse’s waiver wire column (and considering he used the waiver wire to sweep all three of his leagues last year, you might want to pay attention).  Find and add Jesse on Facebook.

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