Kuzul

With inconsistency taking a death-grip over Minnesota’s starting rotation this year, the Twins are rumored to have been interested in just about every pitcher on the market. Unquestionably, Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt are the two most coveted trade targets this season, and the Twins would no doubt love to bring in some pitching help.

Rumors are one thing; feasibility is a whole different animal.

Adding a player like Oswalt or Haren would almost certainly tack a few extra wins onto Minnesota’s record, which would significantly increase the Twins’ playoff chances. But could Minnesota commit to a large contract without crippling the team for the next five years?

Maybe.

Pardon the ambiguity, but there is a way to take on an expensive contract without going bankrupt. But first, here are a few points that need to be understood:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Heading into the All-Star Break, Twins fans split into two camps.

The “oh God, it’s all over” camp reacted to the hometown nine’s recent run of form—a poor one, dropping them into third place in the decent AL Central.

The other camp was the “Second Halfers.”  They’ve seen this team really catch fire in the second half of the season and remember pretty well how the performance of several starting pitchers (like Scott Baker) started to pick up rapidly after the annual midsummer classic.

It took the “Brothers ‘No,” Francicso Liriano and Carl Pavano (along with his sidekick, Super Mario’s moustache), to breathe life back into the Twins starting rotation and help point the club toward the usual second half rally.  Although not in a hole nearly as deep as last season’s at this time, the Twins desperately needed solid starting pitching to reappear in the four game series with the White Sox.

The first game was Kevin Slowey’s, and he didn’t last too long, letting a lead escape him early in the game.  It was more of the same from Slowey, who seems to have lost most of the movement on his fastball, and the repercussions from this latest inadequate start have yet to be fully felt.  More on that later.

Next up was Liriano, Frankie Fastball, The Franchise, call him what you will.  The hurler who turned in incredible April (enough to earn him AL Pitcher of the Month honors) and then hit an up and down patch through May and June returned to his best on Friday against the White Sox, going seven and two thirds and letting the bullpen relax for most of the night. 

Only giving up two runs on a Chicago lineup that was on the verge of going on yet another double-digit winning streak was a much needed shot in the arm for the Twins pitching staff.

Next up was Carl Pavano.  He established himself as more or less the staff ace early in the season and has consistently performed in the clutch for the Twins.  His complete game against Chicago on Saturday night, accomplished in under two hours, was his fourth of the season.  Only having a one-run lead for most of the game, Pavano worked the lineup and managed to hold the Sox to just two runs for the second night in a row.

These two performances went a long way toward calming down the entire pitching staff.  When Nick Blackburn took the mound on Sunday afternoon, he got off to his first strong start in several outings. 

Although he gave up four runs in just five innings of work, this is a considerable upgrade from giving up many runs in the first three innings, as Blackburn had done in most of his starts leading into the break.  Hopefully Blackburn can use the first few innings of this most recent start as a building point for his next one.

In any event, with Pavano and Liriano showing that they’re ready for the second half, the rest of the rotation has a much better chance of following suit.  What’s more is that both of them are now able to do something the best pitchers do: adjust on the fly.

Pavano has been doing this for the Twins since mid-April, but for Liriano, demonstrating the ability to adjust his approach to hitters in the middle of the game is something new and promising. 

Liriano’s MO has been similar all season: getting off to a good start in the first couple innings gave him confidence and let him cruise through the rest of the game.  If he were tagged for a couple runs early, the rest of the game was pretty rocky for him, as well.

Against the White Sox, Liriano faced a potentially disastrous jam in the fifth inning, somewhat of an oddity given how his games have normally gone.  Instead of folding, Liriano got his game face back on, mixed his pitches, and managed to get the Sox to leave several men on base.  This is a definite good sign.

The confidence that Liriano and Pavano will have now to work off of will hopefully rub off on the rest of the starting staff to some degree.  Next up in the rotation is “Big Spot Scott” Baker.  He did more than his share to carry the rotation in the second half last season, and he will be looked upon again to do the same. 

Hoping to keep his pitches down a little lower than he did in the first half, Baker will be able to relax just a little more on the mound knowing that each start isn’t quite as critical as they were at this time last season.  The Twins now sit only a game and a half back of the White Sox and have the easiest schedule (on paper) of any of their competitors in the division.

It is worth mentioning that, despite the success that Liriano and Pavano helped breed in the team, the starting rotation certainly isn’t settled.  Kevin Slowey’s performance on Thursday night moved him one step closer to a ticket to Rochester, NY and the Twins’ AAA affiliate.  If he cannot regain movement on his fastball, Slowely’s spot in the rotation will likely be taken by current bullpen hand Brian Duensing. 

Duensing, who started a playoff game for the Twins in New York last season, caught fire for the club in the second half last season.  Duensing’s place in the ‘pen will be taken by someone from the Twins’ minor league system.  Rumors abound as far as who this person will be, but the two most prominent names are Anthony Slama and Kyle Waldrop.

Slama has been on Twins fans’ radar for a few seasons as a pitcher who doesn’t overpower, but disguises his pitches well.  The Twins pitching coaches have been worried that all Slama had to really rely on was his mastery of hiding his pitches, but so far in AAA, he has been quite impressive.  The number of walks he has issued is a potential worry, however.

Waldrop enjoyed a very good first half of the AAA season with Rochester as well.  In total this season, he has pitched in 41 games and only issued 14 earned runs, putting his ERA at 2.09.  With 41 strike outs compared with 15 walks, Waldrop has been impressive this season.

Regardless, with The Brothers ‘No finding their fire early in this second half and Baker looking to reacquire the stuff he had this time last season, the Twins rotation seems to already be in much better shape than it appeared just a week ago.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The second half of the season is set to begin.

For Minnesota Twins’ fans, the hope is for a three-team race for the division title.

The Twins and White Sox open a crucial four game series at Target Field. For the White Sox, a sweep gives them a huge cushion over the third place Twins and could go a long way to making this a two-team race.

For the Twins, this is a chance to quickly get back in the race, letting the White Sox and Tigers know they are not going away. 

The race for the American League Central Division is going to come down to starting pitching, and as the trade deadline approaches, all three teams are rumored to be in the hunt for starting pitching.

The loss of Jake Peavy leaves a big hole in a White Sox rotation that has only used six pitchers to start a game so far this season. Freddy Garcia leads the team with a 9-3 record. John Danks and Mark Buerhle, both 8-7, have proven to be effective pitchers in the past and look to improve upon their records.

The Tigers may have the greatest need in starting pitching. They have used already eight different starters this season. Only Justin Verlander has won more than six games for Detroit, with an 11-5 record. The only other starter with a winning record is Armando Galarraga (3-2), who currently is pitching at Toledo, the Tigers’ AAA affiliate.

Even though Minnesota starters have only missed one start this season, they are a team without a true ace. Carl Pavano has emerged as the leader with a 10-6 record. But inconsistent starts by the rest of the staff have them searching for a solid starter to add to their rotation. The collapse of Nick Blackburn, who started the season 6-1, only to falter in June and July, going 1-6, to even his record at 7-7, correlates with the team’s fall from first to third in the division. Francisco Liriano, the AL Pitcher of the month in April, who started 4-0, currently sits at 6-7, a record that does not reflect his effectiveness.

The following table ranks the pitchers who have started a game for the White Sox, Tigers, and Twins by their individual WAR rating.  

Based on this ranking, the Chicago White Sox have the edge. The loss of Peavy will put a dent in their rotation, but based on WAR, he was their fifth best starter.

Chicago also has the best innings pitched per start at 6.22, followed closely by Minnesota at 6.13. For Detroit starters, they average less than six innings at 5.80, and as a staff are below the definition of a quality start (at least six innings and less than three earned runs).

The big question will be if Detroit can continue to win without starting pitching. The loss of Joel Zumaya will put more pressure on a bullpen that is already relied upon to pitch approximately 36 percent of the innings.

If championships are won with pitching and defense, the Tigers take another one on the chin. The Tigers have the worst defense of any teams in the Central Division, currently ranked 13th.

The Twins and White Sox have done a much better job of catching the ball with the second and fourth best defenses in the American League.

By many accounts, the battle should come down to the Twins and White Sox.

After two consecutive seasons with the AL Central ending in a tie, could there be yet another Game 163 on the horizon?

The deciding factor will come down to who wins the battle to add starting pitching.

As of now, I give the edge to the Chicago White Sox.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The best players in baseball don’t always make the All-Star teams. It’s a fact of life that we have come to accept.

And yet, each year, we (or at least, I) are shocked by the idiocy of the fan, player, and coach selections. With all of the slumping stars, humdrum homers, and straight-up head-scratchers that end up filling out the rosters, it’s hard not to keep thinking about the deserving players who got left off.

I feel terrible for the players who are sitting in their living rooms this All-Star Break, watching their inferior peers being honored on national TV. So I thought making an All-Star team for them was the least I could do.

In this slideshow are the nine snubbed hitters and two overlooked pitchers who most deserved spots on their respective leagues’ teams. The resulting team isn’t as good as a real All-Star roster, but it’s certainly talented enough to give either league’s squad a run for its money.

Begin Slideshow

The Twins closed out the unofficial first half of the season salvaging the third game against Detroit with a 46-42 record.

Good enough for third place in the AL Central.

One definition for ‘frustration’ is when expectations exceed reality.  For Twins’ fans the first half of 2010 has been a lesson in dealing with frustration.

Even before the first pitch was thrown in 2010 the expectations were high.

The opening of Target Field came on the heels of an unprecedented surge to win the 2009 AL Central Division by forcing, and winning, game 163 to break a tie with the Detroit Tigers.

Expectations were made greater with the signing of hometown hero, three-time batting champion, and reigning AL MVP, Joe Mauer to a contract extension that will keep him in Minnesota for a long time.  

Once the season began the expectations were cranked even higher.

The Twins started by winning the first six series they played, and eight of the first nine, giving them a 19-9 record, good enough for a three and half game lead in the division. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were among the top hitters in the league, and Jon Rauch had eight saves in place of Joe Nathan who was lost before the season began. Francisco Liariano was named AL Pitcher of the Month in April with a 3-0 record and a 0.93 ERA.

Then reality set in.

Mauer’s average is currently at .293—equal to the lowest in his career.

Due to complications from a concussion, Morneau has missed the last two games and will miss the All-Star Game in Anaheim this week.     

Since April, Liariano is 3-7 with a 4.94 ERA.

This is Ron Gardenhire’s ninth season as the Twins’ Manager and he has found himself in this situation before. Gardenhire has never finished lower than third in the American League Central Division, winning five of the last eight division titles.

Twice the Twins have gone into the break with the third best record in the division.

In 2003, the Twins finished the first half of the season losing 11 of 12 games.

They saw a half game lead on June 30 fall to a third place finish at the break, down seven and a half games behind the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox, by July 13.  

The starting pitching ignited the team in the second half to win the division by four games.

Brad Radke (9-1), Johan Santana (8-1) and Kyle Lohse (9-2) lead the way as the team cruised to a 46-23 second half record.

Contrast that with 2007.

The Twins went into the Mid-Season Classic with a 45-43 record, again good for third place in the division, eight games behind the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians.

This time, however, there was no one to lead them to a division title. They went 34-40 to finish with Gardenhire’s only losing season at 79-83.

Carlos Silva led the starters with a 7-4 record. Santana and Scott Baker were the next best with 6-6 records.

If the Twins are going to repeat the accomplishments of 2003, they need a starting pitcher to step up and carry the team past the Tigers and White Sox.

Right now that pitcher appears to be Carl Pavano. His win against the Tigers ended a five game slide for the club and has him leading the team with a 10-6 record and a 3.58 ERA.

A peek at the stats for the Twins’ starters for the second half of 2009 does not bode well for a 2010 comeback.

Baker ended strong in 2009 going 8-2 to in the second half after starting the season at 7-7. 

Pavano was acquired in the second half from Cleveland and went 5-4.

Nick Blackburn went 3-7. He’s currently 7-7, but his 6.40 ERA is the worst on the team. He has not shown any indications he will be able to turn things around in the second half.

Liriano only went 1-4 last year. His 2010 record does not accurately reflect how good he is pitching. Exclude is last appearance (1.2 innings and seven earned runs) and his record would be a serviceable 6-6 with 4.22 ERA, more than two runs better than Blackburn’s.

That leaves Kevin Slowey, who did not pitch after the All-Star break in 2009 and has not regained the dominance he showed opening the 2009 season 10-3 with a 4.86 ERA.

If Gardenhire is to duplicate the type of success the Twins had in 2003, they will need to find at least one more starting pitcher to join Pavano, Liariano and Baker. There does not appear to be anyone ready to make the jump from AA or AAA to the majors.

In Rochester, the Twins’ AAA affiliate, Anthony Swarzak (1-5, 6.84 ERA) and Jeff Manship (3-5, 5.11 ERA) have both made spot starts for the Twins, but neither appear ready for major league hitters.

With Cliff Lee going to the Texas Rangers, that leaves few options for trades.

Unless the Twins’ find an ace-in-waiting or can trade for one, 2010 looks like it will be going the way of 2007—a third place finish in the AL Central.

Look at the bright side—there at least won’t be another playoff loss to the Yankees.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the All-Star break not getting here fast enough, the Twins have fallen from decent to mediocrity. Their once potent lineup has now proven to have many more holes then it let on and has given the Twins a lot to gather in their three days off.

An optimist would say the Twins play better in the second half. However, one shouldn’t bank on such thoughts because the pure fact that Minnesota’s starting rotation has fallen to an atrocious level.

A Rotation in Decline

Right-handed starter Scott Baker has been nothing short of pedestrian this season going 7-8 in the first half with a 4.78 ERA with a 5:1 strikeout to walks ratio (95/19). His lone high note has been his ability to go deep into games, but not necessarily keep his team in it.

In June, Baker only managed one victory in five starts. Despite going at least seven innings in two of those starts, his 2-1 victory over Colorado remains his only high point on the past month and a half.

Nick Blackburn has been an interesting afterthought to his astounding May winning five games in as many starts. His ERA was also a respectable 4.28 after May. The Twins were 8-1 with him on the mound and his record to that point was 6-1. However, as the calender turned, so did Nick’s numbers.

Since June 1st, Nick has only won once and has been nothing short of atrocious. His 6.40 ERA is the worst of all the starters. He’s also only struck out 34 to 27 walks for the year. For also being an inning-eater, his lack of ability to get deep into games the past month or so has been a bit disturbing. He now sits at a disappointing 7-7 with little to show for his month of June and July.

As we look down the rotation, Kevin Slowey has been a quiet and inconsistent, but still has shown at times that he can fight for a spot in the rotation. Despite his short comings, he did start the season at 7-3 while his current 8-5 record hides his flaws. His ERA has ballooned since his June 8th start with 3.45 to a now a mediocre 4.74.

His ability to keep the Twins in games for at least six innings and up until his most recent start (July 7) he’s never allowed more then 9 hits. By this, he still has a spot on the rotation until he’s either traded for a bigger arm or he begins to show a reason to keep tabs on him.

Francisco Liriano is probably the biggest case of unfortunates. His 3.9/1 strikeout to walk ratio is decent (especially when its 117/30). At the current rate, Liriano would be on track for a 200 strikeout season, something he could tab to his career of a comeback since his Tommy John surgery back in 2006.

Records don’t mean squat when measuring most pitchers. Just as Slowey’s 8-5 doesn’t measure him well, Liriano’s 6-7 record doesn’t represent him to good as well. His 3.86 ERA (largely due to his past performance against the Detroit Tigers, before of which his ERA was 3.32) shows that his efficiency is ace worthy if he can remain consistent and receive run support.

Although he’s 0-4 in his last 5 starts, he’s shown a resurgence this season that can possibly turn around a rough first half. Beyond Carl Pavano, Liriano is probably the most trusted pitcher to send to the hill.

Rick Anderson said it best,“He struggles when he’s not under control. You can see it early in the game; he’s rushing and falling all over the place. His biggest thing is giving up those runs early in the game, and then he’ll settle down for three, four, five innings. He can do it because of (his) stuff. Again, if you get away from the first couple of innings, when he’s given up most of his runs, he’s pitched pretty good. If he puts up zeros early, and he’s in control from the start, he’s got a chance for a good one. But if he’s falling all over and not throwing, he’s got to make a quick adjustment or he’ll be three or four runs behind.”

Pavano is the lone exception to the decline in the rotation. After a disappointing May, his June was uncharacteristic of the Twins rotation winning four of five starts including two complete game victories over two National League East aces in Roy Halladay and former Twin Johan Santana (back-to-back starts). With a 9-6 record and no loss since June 3rd, he’s been the lone anchor to the rotation and certainly isn’t part of the problem at the moment.

Possible Answers

An ace is a primary need as the Twins are now fielding the options of a possible trades before the tradeline, now that Cliff Lee has been landed by the Texas Rangers. Several options exist in second-tier pitchers available on the trading market. Houston’s Roy Oswalt, Arizona’s Dan Haren, Chicago Cubs Ted Lilly, Oakland’s Ben Sheets, as well as Cleveland’s Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona.

Lilly seems destined for the New York Mets and Oswalt’s price might be too high for what he’d be worth. Sheets lacks the dominance the Twins would like and might even be a step down from the rotation they already wield. Westbrook, Carmona and Haren seem like decent options with the likely move being made towards Dan Haren. His numbers suggest the best upgrade this side of Cliff Lee and would offer a good one-two punch with Pavano and Liriano. However, it remains to be seen what Haren’s cost would be.

Another possible option is bring up from within. Kyle Gibson has been ripping through AA New Britain with a 5-3 record in 10 starts, winning his last three and only allowing two runs in that three game stretch. With a 3.56 ERA and 3:1 strikeout/walk ratio (51/17), his numbers suggest a boost to AAA some time in the near future.

He also tore through A league with the Fort Myers Miracle with a 4-1 record and winning the Florida State League Pitcher of the Week the first week of May. With that tallied, Gibson leads the Twins minor-league system with 9 wins so far this season. If the Washington Nationals can pull up the likes Stephen Strasburg, why not Kyle Gibson?

Bullpen

The bullpen has proven to be stable point for the most part for the Twins so far this season. However, certain aspects have proven quite ineffective. The likes of Jose Mijares, Ron Mahay, and Jon Rauch (in his current role) are the more mentionable pieces.

Mijares has yet to prove to have the command he was known for last season and his off the field attitude screams “trade.” His control of pitches has resulted in late game collapses of games that are well in check. A trip to the minors might be a big reality check to his lagging game of late.

Matt Guerrier, although attributable to late inning collapses in proving to look more like a slump then anything else. In past years this has happened and Matt has pulled through as the great set-up pitcher he’s been known for.

Ron Mahay has been used to scarcely and has proven to be a waste of roster space. His poor performances when he has been called in have been embarrassing. Mahay should be cut or at least sent down. There’s a reason the Twins signed him to a minor league deal and no one else did.

Twins closer, Jon Rauch, has done a little better then most thought, but has proven to be not effective enough to shut the door for a team that is known for close contests. Jon is 19 of 23 in save opportunities which is by no means bad, however, his best role is suited as a set-up guy, especially when the middle-relief is hurting.

Possible options are currently sitting in AAA in closer Anthony Slama and reliever Kyle Waldrop (disregarding his recent outing) have been nothing short of amazing. Slama is 16 for 16 in save opportunities and will be a part of the AAA All-Star game. Waldrop has been shut down for the most part and flashed a 1.11 ERA as Slama has shown a strong 1.28 ERA. Both seem ready as Gardy has even endorsed Slama has having been quite formidable this year.

Starting Lineup

With Mauer now underachieving, Morneau with a concussion and half the lineup searching for their swing, it’s no surprise how the Twins have struggled to remain in games.

The Twins NEED a third basemen. Nick Punto does not count. Danny Valencia needs growth still and the Twins would be wise to invest in the likes of a Joe Crede who currently resides in free agency waiting to be picked up. True, he has had injury issues, although, he also could prove to be not that big a risk at half a season price.

His bat could put a legitimate threat in the lineup and for the most part, keep everyone comfortable. Cuddyer doesn’t belong at third. There’s a reason it didn’t work the first time. With a partial deafness in his left ear (the one facing the rest of the infield) he faces a big disadvantage playing the ‘hot corner.’

Danny either needs to start full-time or the Twins need to find a way to get Mr. Crede to sign on the dotted line.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Another series of rumors took the Internet by storm last night. According to a Detroit radio station’s Twitter account, the Twins and Mariners agreed to a deal that would send Cliff Lee to the Minnesota in exchange for Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks.

Eventually, various beat writers and reporters shot down the rumors but did confirm that the two teams were in serious discussions. At this point, I think it’s time we draw some conclusions, in order of confidence:

1. The Twins are interested in trading for Lee.

2. The Twins will not be able to re-sign Lee after the 2010 season.

3. Ramos will be included in any package coming from Minnesota.

4. An outfield prospect will be included in any package coming from Minnesota.

5. The Twins will not include both Ramos and Hicks in a deal for Lee.

I certainly wish I could move that fourth bullet point higher on the list. Giving up both Ramos and Hicks would be a costly mistake, even though it would bring two (hopefully three) months of Lee’s pitching to Minnesota’s rotation.

According to ERA, the Twins have a slightly below-average starting rotation. According to the stat xFIP, Minnesota’s combination of starting pitchers are the third best group in MLB. The Twins have a high BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which should help decrease the team’s ERA over the second half of the season.

Despite the great sabermetric reviews, the Twins remain without an ace. In a short series, few teams would want to face Lee, Francisco Liriano, and Carl Pavano on consecutive days. I don’t blame them.

Before Minnesota can even get to the postseason though, they will have to win the AL Central, which remains as competitive as ever. The Twins are in the thick of the race and should be willing to pay top dollar for every extra win they can log. Minnesota will pay a lot more for Lee than, for example the Houston Astros, simply because every added win greatly contributes to their postseason chances.

While the Twins would be willing to pay more for Lee than most teams—is a Ramos/Hicks package too much?

As much as I would love to see Mauer, Morneau, and Ramos combine to form one of the best C/1B/DH trios in the league. It’s clear that Ramos is expendable. In fact, Ramos is perhaps the most blocked and tradable prospects in baseball. As for Hicks, he is the most talented of the several athletic outfield prospects the Twins have in their farm system. There will be a log jam of outfielders in the future if the Twins don’t deal some away, though Hicks is the 9th-best prospect in the minor leagues, according to ESPN’s Keith Law.

I’d be more than willing to deal Ramos and Hicks together in a deal for Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren, both of whom are under contract for more than just a few months. But for a rental, I’d have to think Ramos and Hicks would be too much.

To play devil’s advocate, here’s a tweet from @chrisandersonis :

“Don’t understand why people would be up in arms about Hicks & Ramos for Lee. #Twins have farmed players for 19 years w/ 0 titles.”

This is true. At some point, giving up young talent in order to win now is the best course of action. But the line between going for broke and reckless spending is often times a tricky one to maneuver.

What do you think? Should the Twins deal Ramos and Hicks for Lee, or hold out for a better deal?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In a pitchers duel, it doesn’t take much to shift the balance of the game. For the Minnesota Twins Friday night against the Tampa Bay Rays, two key base hits provided a lead that they would refuse to relinquish.

Minnesota’s Scott Baker managed to scatter several hits from the potent Ray’s offense with minimal damage on the scoreboard. Working an effective slider and a fastball with plenty of bite, Baker managed to keep the Rays at bay, with the exception of a run scored on a ground-rule double in the first inning.

Hits were much tougher to come by against David Price. The former first-overall selection had his deadly fastball/curveball combination working like a gem, and the Twins only managed four hits the entire game. Half of those hits came in the bottom half of the seventh inning for Minnesota, which game them a 2-1 lead.

Delmon Young, the oft-maligned Twins outfielder who could be the most over-qualified 7th batter in the league, followed up a Jason Kubel single with a game-tying double to left-center field. He was knocked home with a base hit to center field off the bat of rookie Danny Valencia.

The Twins relied upon Brian Duensing and Jesse Crain to get them through the 8th inning before putting the ball in the hands of impromptu closer Jon Rauch.

Rauch, 6”11′ and 290 lbs, was given the 9th-inning role when it was discovered that Joe Nathan needed season-ending surgery. Although Twins fans lack confidence in the towering 31-year old, his sub-3.00 ERA and 18 saves speak volumes to Rauch’s ability. That being said, Rauch’s success also shows how over-rated the closer position is; if Rauch can thrive in the high-leverage 9th inning, so can most relievers.

With the win, Minnesota evens the four-game series with Tampa at one apiece. Tomorrow, the Twins’ top-performing starting pitcher will take the mound in Target Field. Francisco Liriano has solidified his place in Minnesota’s rotation this season via several excellent starts and a 3.47 ERA.

Liriano’s opponent will be Wade Davis, who has struggled this season despite a low BABIP, low line-drive percentage, and high strand rate. Although it appears that Davis is a prime candidate to give up a 10-spot to the Twins this afternoon, the 24-year old righty has an ERA of 2.65 in his last three starts and appears to be settling down.

If Minnesota can notch another victory, they will guarantee themselves a series split against one of the tougher teams in the league. The Twins are coming off a rough month of June and a series split would be a fine way to get back on track. Winning three of four from the Rays, though, would be an even better way for the Twins to shake off the rust and get back to their winning ways.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Originally published at TwinsMVB.com .

After a satisfying series victory over the divisional rival Detroit Tigers, the Twins will end their homestand with a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay started the season off on an excellent note, perching themselves atop the American League East while the Yankees and Red Sox tried to re-group. Now, though, the Rays have struggled to maintain their pitching prowess, and have slipped in the standings.

Still one of the best teams in baseball, though, the Rays will be trying to accomplish the same thing as the Twins during this series: closing the door on a rotten June in an attempt to get back on track in July.

Game One – Jeff Niemann (6-2, 2.72) vs. Carl Pavano (9-6, 3.33)

Niemann, 27, was a major factor into Tampa Bay’s incredible start to the season, posting a 2.38 ERA through the month of May. Like his team, though, Niemann took a step back in June. This step back has been minimal, but could be the start of a major regression.

Despite coming off two successful starts against National League squads, Niemann is a classic example of a pitcher with artificially impressive stats. With an extremely low BABIP, a low line drive percentage, and a very high strand rate, it’s not a question of whether or not Niemann will regress; it’s a question of when.

While he’s certainly not as good of a pitcher as his stats suggest, Niemann may not return to earth for quite a while. The longer he keeps up this façade, though, the harder his fall will be.

Pavano’s success, meanwhile, appears to be more a result of ability. Although he has the benefit of a low BABIP and high strand rate, Pavano hasn’t given up any fewer line drives than is usual for the 34-year-old. His overall talent level is probably worse than his current 3.33 ERA, but to expect a 4.00 ERA on the season would be fair.

Though not the case for most Twins, the month of June has been extremely friendly to Pavano. Coming off two consecutive complete games, Pavano has an ERA of 2.25 through 40 June innings. Pavano (and teammate Francisco Liriano) have been paramount to Minnesota’s ability to avoid a free-fall this month.

Both BJ Upton and Carl Crawford have dealt with minor bumps and bruises these past few days, and they may miss a game or two during this series.

Game Two – David Price (11-3, 2.44) vs. Scott Baker (4-7, 4.97)

A few weeks ago, David Price was in the same boat as Niemann: a lucky pitcher who would likely plummet back to a more realistic realm. Instead of regressing, though, Price seems to be finally tapping into his incredible potential.

Price, 24, had marginal success last year with basically two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. This season Price has introduced two new pitches: a curveball and a two-seam fastball. With the ability to better deceive opposing batters, Price has had great success in 2010. His ERA won’t stay below 2.50 for too long, and he won’t be able to strand nearly as many runners as he is now, but Price, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, has started to realize his potential, which should frighten batters across the American League.

Baker has been one of the most disappointing players for Minnesota this season. A career 4.36 ERA pitcher, Baker’s near-5.00 ERA this season has angered many fans. Looking at the stats, though, shows that Baker has BABIP slightly higher than is usual for the right-hander, and that more fly balls than usual are ending up as home runs. Both of these will likely regress eventually, though, Minnesota fans could be treated to a start along the lines of Baker’s most recent .

Game Three – Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68) vs. Francisco Liriano (6-6, 3.47)

When looking at opposing pitchers in these series previews, I usually make sure to mention whether or not that pitcher has had “luck” on their side. In Davis’ case, though, his poor stats are simply because he hasn’t pitched very well.

Whether his issues are mental or mechanical isn’t necessarily known, but he has garnered far fewer swinging strikes than in the past. This lack of deception has greatly hurt his stats, and Price could be replaced by top prospect Jeremy Hellickson very soon.

Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, and “luck” hasn’t played too big a factor in his success. He will give up more home runs per fly ball than he is now, but all signs point back to the biggest reason for Liriano’s success: his improved slider.

Game Four – James Shields (6-8, 4.76) vs. Nick Blackburn (7-5, 6.02)

On the face of things, it appears that Shields has been unimpressive this season. When trying to root out the reason for this mediocrity, though, I can’t find any glaring abnormalities. Most of his batted-ball and plate discipline stats have remained the same from years past, as Shields is still inducing plenty of ground balls and getting ahead in the count at a very impressive clip.

So why is the ground-ball pitcher struggling? For one, his BABIP is slightly higher, but something intangible is also a likely culprit. In any case, Shields hasn’t been very effective this season, and there is no reason to believe that his mediocrity will end against the Twins.

Blackburn has also struggled to get batters out this year, but we can pinpoint exactly what is ailing the 28-year old righty: He just isn’t very good. He is dead-last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and when he throws a pitch in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact an astounding 96.6 percent of the time, which is also tops in the league.

Marginally successful for the past few years, Blackburn relied upon his extremely accurate arm to paint the corners of the plate and walk very few opposing batters. This year, however, it appears the league knows that most of Blackburn’s pitches are hittable.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Having lost six of their last seven games, the Minnesota Twins’ fast start has slowed considerably.

Though still six games above .500, the Twins are no longer at the top of the AL Central. While fans and media are jumping off the bandwagon left and right, Minnesota is trying desperately to find what’s ailing them and fix the problem.

Are the Twins being hurt because of a poor offense, or is the pitching doing them in? As is usually the case, Minnesota can attribute their drop in the standings to a combination of both offense and pitching.

Check out the table below for a quick run-down on the Twins’ struggles in June:

In the 25 games the Twins have played in June this season, they have had a net loss of 1.14 runs per game. As you can see, if the Twins don’t burst from this slump and start scoring and preventing runs at a much better clip, they will have no chance of postseason contention.

But in order to break free from the shackles they currently find themselves in, the Twins will need to bank on a few key players finding their groove once again.

Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer have lost an average of 159 OPS points in June. JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson, Minnesota’s starting shortstop and second baseman, have combined to appear in just 15 games during the month of June.

As a team, the Twins have dropped 82 OPS points in the same month. Essentially, Minnesota hitters have transformed from Cody Ross to Christian Guzman.

Clearly, the offense has been an issue for the Twins. Luckily, most of these players will be unable to keep up this futility for too long, and should start slowly pulling themselves out of the mud.

Minnesota’s starting rotation, though, could be a bigger issue.

Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano have been excellent for the Twins this year, but the other 60 percent of the rotation has been downright dreadful. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn have combined to post an ERA of 7.17 in the month of June, which, at the major-league level, is laughable and simply unacceptable.

Still, a few of these rotation members should be able to get back on track before too long.

Blackburn, though, has sandwiched an outstanding May with a horrendous April and June. If the Twins were to acquire a starting pitcher before the July 31 trade deadline, Blackburn would be the one to go. And, let’s face it, replacing Blackburn’s innings with that of a league-average starter (or even Cliff Lee) would drastically improve the team.

Yes, the month of June has left Twins’ fans with a rotten taste in their mouths. The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox have had very strong months, and are flying up the standings.

Chicago won 15 of 17 games at one point and are about to hold a mini-fire sale, though, and will inevitably fall back to third in the division. The Tigers will endure a tough month or two, as well, and the Twins will have an opportunity to re-gain some ground.

After all, baseball is a six-month sport.

Unlike football or basketball, one extended losing streak won’t derail a season. The Twins have plenty of time to address their needs, catch their breath, and engage in a dogfight with Detroit.

There’s no time like the present, and with the Tigers in town for a three-game series, the Twins need to take advantage.

We’ve hardly reached the do-or-die point in the season, but a series win against Detroit this week would do wonders to Minnesota’s attempts to break out of a funk.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com