Kuzul

The Minnesota Twins are tired of running headlong into the buzzsaw that is the New York Yankees. This is the team that has beaten the Twins in the playoffs three separate times during the managerial reign of Ron Gardenhire.  

In their new 2010 Target Field, the Twins want to win the whole thing this season. They have a potent offense, led by three-time batting champion and 2009 MVP Joe Mauer and former MVP Justin Morneau.

They have the financial wherewithal with the new stadium and have upped their payroll already to $98 million, more than the Los Angeles Dodgers’. In addition, the Pohlad family, owners of the Twins franchise, are one of the wealthiest families in all of sports.

Yankees be damned!

Speaking with someone familiar with the situation (and verifying the initial conversation), the Twins traded for Cliff Lee last week, but the deal fell through. The primary player going to the Seattle Mariners, catcher Wilson Ramos , suffered a strained oblique during Saturday’s game. Ramos is expected to miss seven to ten days .

Ramos was not yet placed on the seven-day minor league disabled list, keeping the trade possible. Unless the Commissioner’s office signs off on the deal, players on the disabled list are usually ineligible to be traded. There must be an understanding that both teams know that player is on the disabled list.

The deal included Ramos, a Twins Major League-ready pitcher (believed to be left-handed reliever Brian Duensing ), and a low level minor league outfielder. The Mariners might be including a low level player, too.

Once Ramos gets clearance to play baseball again, this trade will again be made.

It appears that this deal heavily favors the Twins, as they would get one of the premier pitchers in baseball essentially for a young catcher their system sorely needs, a possible starting pitcher, and a filler.

If I were the Mariners, I would hold out (briefly, like a day) for 3B Danny Valencia , instead of the low level player, in addition to Ramos and Duensing.

This deal would give the Twins a very formidable starting rotation with Lee, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, and Nick Blackburn.

Pavano, Baker, and Blackburn are without any type of innings limits. Slowey (91 innings pitched in 2009), and Liriano (138 innings pitched in 2009), are both coming off arm injuries and will likely be monitored for the rest of 2010.

In addition, Blackburn, who is signed through 2013 and is usually the team’s most reliable starting pitcher, has had a very off year so far. His record is a respectable 6-4, but with a 5.80 ERA. We all know, however, that the pitchers’ wins are more important.

The Twins staff already has five good starters, but Lee would fit in nicely in any team’s rotation. As I write this, Lee just finished up another complete game , beating the Chicago Cubs 8-1 with nine strikeouts and ZERO walks.  

It is Lee’s fourth complete game this season.

He is now 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP. He has struck out 76 batters in 86.2 innings, and he has walked only four batters.

Dontrelle Willis walked seven hitters in only two-plus innings last night.

Ramos is a good, young catcher but is blocked by Joe Mauer, making him expendable. Ramos came up to the majors earlier this season when Mauer was hurt and hit .296/.321 OBP/.407 SLG/.729 OPS with three doubles and an RBI in limited time.

However, he is struggling with the bat in Triple-A Rochester, hitting only .218 with four homers and 18 RBI.

That positive Major League time gave the Mariners an idea that he can be a good starting catcher. In fact, Ramos could step into a starting role right away.

Duensing is a 27-year-old left-handed pitcher who was squeezed out of the Twins rotation in 2010. He started nine games last season, including this gem over the rival Detroit Tigers, which helped lead the Twins into the playoffs.

Duensing was 5-1 as a starter down the stretch last year for the Twins.

Even though he has been great as a reliever this season (2-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.812 WHIP), and really tough against lefty hitters (.122 BA), I do expect the Mariners to convert Duensing back to a starting pitcher.

It is not enough of a haul for the Mariners, especially well before the trading deadline and with Lee pitching so well right now.

The Mariners are basically giving the American League Central division title to the Twins.

And that is bad new for the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, and any other possible American League playoff team which could face Lee in the 2010 playoffs.

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Another day, another big time prospect comes to the majors.  Today it is Carlos Santana of the Cleveland Indians who was perhaps the best hitting prospect left down in the farm.  I wont start gushing too much about him, you will have to read the article to see the rest.  There is some injury news on one of the best players in the game, and also some of the more interesting pitchers of the night. 

Carlos Santana was FINALLY called to the major leagues by the Cleveland Indians and was third in the batting order in his first game.  He was 0-for-3 with a walk in his first action, but there is no doubt that the team has nothing but confidence in him and he will be their everyday catcher or at least DH if they think he needs a day off from behind the plate. 

There is absolutely nothing not to like about this kid.  He is just 24 years old and has hit at every level of the minors.  In 57 games in AAA in 2010, Santana was hitting .316 with 13 homers and 51 RBI. 

I think that he will have similar numbers to that of Buster Posey, but I think that he is going to hit more homers than his National League counterpart.  Santana is a good pick-up for any fantasy team, even if you have one of the top catchers in the league. 

The “groin injury” that caused Alex Rodriguez to come out of yesterday’s game turns out to be a hip problem after all, although according to his manager it is not in the area that caused him to have surgery and miss the first month of last season (although I don’t believe that for one second). 

He did not play on Friday and the team says that he is day to day.  If I had to guess, I would say that he probably won’t play until Sunday, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he was back with the team on Saturday.  It might cause him to miss some games sporadically over the next couple of weeks, but it appears that this won’t be  major. 

Austin Kearns is having a nice little bounce back year as he attempts to actually have a season that he can actually stay healthy.  Kearns has only played more than 90 games once in the last five seasons.  He had two home runs on Friday, bringing his season total to seven in just 40 games. 

If you are considering adding Kearns, allow me to offer these words of advice.  I can see you adding him to your roster if you are a little weak in the due to injury or other factors.  However, just know that this is probably going to be short lived because he has never proven to be consistent or able to stay on the field. 

For those of you who have been worried about Francisco Liriano regressing after his hot start, how are you feeling now? 

Liriano absolutely dominated the Atlanta Braves on Friday as he gave up just one run over eight innings and struck out a very impressive 11 batters.

This is now back to back games in which he has double digit strikeouts and has allowed only one run, so any concern coming off that little rough stretch should be gone.  His ERA is under 3.00 and he has more than a strikeout an inning for the season. 

R. A. Dickey got his fourth win in just five starts for the New York Mets, but I don’t see any way that you can possibly trust this journeyman knuckleballer to be a consistent contributor for you.  There is no way that you can take away today’s performance though as he allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out eight. 

Most of the time with knuckleballers it is either feast or famine.  Either the ball is jumping all over and it is hard to hit, or it just isn’t moving much at all and it is batting practice for the offense.  So far, so good for Dickey, but I think you are grasping at straws if you are expecting a 35 year old pitcher with a career record under .500 and a ERA of 5.31 to pitch well throughout the season. 

Granted it is easier to pitch when your team gives you nine runs of support in the first two innings, John Lackey had a strong outing today regardless of his cushion.  He gave up just two runs over seven innings and struck out three. 

Like I wrote last time he took the mound, I think the days of the John Lackey in Anaheim with the good strikeout numbers might be gone, but I still think he is a very viable fantasy pitcher.  He has gone from a possible staff ace to a very solid third starter on your team; but on the Red Sox he should really be able to pile up some wins as he got number seven on Friday.  It has been an uncharacteristic season for Lackey, but perhaps he can get back on track. 

Speaking of getting back on track, hopefully tonight’s game will do just that for David Ortiz .  Big Papi was starting to turn back into a pumpkin again as he had just one hit in his previous eight games—but he broke out big time on Friday as he collected three hits and drove in four runs to bring his season total to 39 RBI.  Looks like it is going to be similar to last year for Papi with a good number of homers and RBIs and a pretty putrid batting average. 

James Shields has hit a major bump in the road lately, a bump that hopefully is temporary.  He had a streak from April 22^nd to May 25^th in which he did not allow more than three earned runs, and now two of his last three outings he has coughed up at least seven.  He gave up a whopping ten earned runs on Friday in just 3.1 innings, but at least he struck out four (like that is any consolation to his owners!).

At least Shields is still getting exceptional strikeout numbers for his career, as he now has 82 whiffs in just 85 innings pitched, which is well above his career rate.  If you have Shields, you have to continue to start him no matter the opponent and hope that this is short lived. 

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Originally published at TwinsMVB.com .

Starting the season with low expectations and a very young team, the Oakland Athletics find themselves at the top of their division through the first third of the season.

In the Oakland Colosseum, the Athletics boast an impressive 19-8 record. As the Twins attempt to shake off a disappointing series with Seattle, the Athletics appear to be an intimidating foe.

Game One

Baker (5-4, 4.48 ERA) vs. Braden (4-5, 3.60 ERA)

As I’m sure you’re aware, Braden tossed the first perfect game of this historic 2010 season. Despite being forever plastered in the record books, though, Braden is not an elite pitcher. His BABIP is unusually low, which is why his FIP is higher than his impressive-on-the-surface ERA.

Braden has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and is very prone to the home run ball. He doesn’t strike out many opposing batters at all, though his fastball/changeup duo are noteworthy.

Baker, on the other hand, has fought off some tough luck so far this season.

His BABIP is a few points higher than his career average, which indicates a possible regression of opposing batters’ ability to keep their batted balls out of Minnesota gloves. Baker’s strikeout and ground ball rates are higher than last year, and he’s averaging just over six innings of work per start.

Twins fans have long been searching for an ace since Johan Santana was dealt away. Liriano hasn’t been able to fill the void, but so far this season, Baker has looked everything like an ace.

If Baker can step up and help the Twins finish off this tough road series on a good note, the unofficial designation of “staff ace” is his to lose.

Game Two

Liriano (5-3, 3.29 ERA) vs. Cahill (4-2, 3.02 ERA)

So far this season, few pitchers have been as lucky as Trevor Cahill. With a BABIP of just .222, he is sure to regress to the mean eventually.

Will it be against the Twins tomorrow night? Probably not.

Even so, Cahill has struck out opposing batters at one of the lowest rates in the league and walked around three per nine innings. He has been aided by an extremely good ground ball rate, as well as a great strand rate.

Liriano started the season off beautifully, but struggled for a brief three-game stretch before returning to his groove.

If you remove Liriano’s starts on May 8, 15, and 20 from his season total, his ERA drops to just 2.02. Even with the low ERA (which isn’t the best way to evaluate a pitcher), Liriano’s FIP is even lower. He has struggled through a very high BABIP of .349, striking out just over nine opposing batters per nine innings.

With five days of rest, Liriano’s ERA is 1.78. Unfortunately, Liriano will only get four days of R&R during this turn of the starting rotation, where he has an ERA of 5.76.

Game Three

Blackburn (6-2, 4.73 ERA) vs. Gonzalez (5-3, 3.68 ERA)

Fortunately, the Twins will be able to escape Oakland without being forced to find an answer for Brett Anderson. Instead, they will take on three young starters who boast very impressive ERAs and are currently riding lucky streaks.

Gonzalez has been able to limit baserunners at a great clip this year, with a WHIP of just 1.29. He hasn’t struck out many, though, and his strand rate is way above his career average.

Blackburn has been one of the more disappointing Twins’ pitchers this year.

He is currently dead last in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, and his walk and home run rate are both higher than last year. Blackburn’s ability to induce ground balls is up, but his stats don’t look to be aided by a BABIP regression anytime soon.

He has been able to provide the Twins with plenty of average innings, though—he’s averaged 6.42 innings per start so far this season.

It’s way too early to apply the “must-win” label to this series, but two or even three wins in Oakland could help the Twins prepare for a tough interleague stretch later this month.

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(Originally posted on TwinsMVB.com ) Another rematch against a team that we just can’t seem to beat.

After being swept in the season series against the Yankees last year and losing two of three to them in our first meeting this year, the Twins will be considered the underdog in this series, despite what the above numbers say.

Should the Twins fail to win this series against the Bronx Bombers, there will undoubtedly be people throwing in the towel on the season, citing the Twins’ inability to beat the “good teams” that they will be paired up against in the postseason.

That’s certainly an overreaction, but winning two of three in the Yankees’ first visit to Target Field sure would be nice.

Game One – Burnett (4-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Baker (4-4, 4.88 ERA)

AJ Burnett has certainly been having a great season and was among the early favorites for Cy Young before he got rocked for six runs in just under seven innings a few days ago. Ignoring that last start, Burnett has been an above-average starter. He isn’t striking out his usual total, though, and he is giving up plenty of hits.

If an offensively potent team can string some hits together—like the Rays did last week—Burnett’s ERA may rise a few dozen points. On the face of things, it appears as if Baker is in his “start the season slow” mode.

With a relatively high 4.88 ERA, Baker is hardly pitching well enough to be considered the staff’s “ace.” As evidenced by his abnormally-high .343 BABIP and improved groundball rate, Baker may be on the cusp of a few lucky breaks.

Baker is striking out the most in his career, walking opposing batters at a very low clip, and has the 25th-lowest xFIP in baseball: 3.70.

Game Two – Pettitte (5-1, 2.68 ERA) vs. Liriano (4-3, 3.25 ERA)

Andy Pettitte has been the anti-Baker so far this year. Although his ERA and win/loss record is appealing, his xFIP is a much-higher 4.34, which testaments to his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and low BABIP, all of which indicate a regression to the mean in the very near future.

Pettitte also has a very impressive 82.2 strand-rate, which simply isn’t sustainable over the course of a whole season.

After posting a 7.02 ERA over his last three starts, Liriano seems to have finally convinced people that he will never return to his pre-surgery form. Even with three less-than-desirable starts so far this year, Liriano’s intangibles have been right in line of what we expect: a solid strikeout rate and an average walk rate.

His almost complete aversion of the long-ball this year (he’s given up just two home runs all season) is also good to see.

Game Three – Vazquez (3-4, 6.69 ERA) vs. Blackburn (5-1, 4.50 ERA)

After dealing away a package centering around Melky Cabrera for Javy Vazquez, the Yankees are undoubtedly upset with their return. Vazquez, who finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season, is off to a terrible start with New York. His sky-high ERA is only slightly worse than the advanced stats claim, and hope can’t even be gleaned from his BABIP, which is maddeningly (at least for Yankees fans) normal.

Blackburn, on the other hand, has pitched worse than his ERA indicates. Striking out an extremely low 2.50 batters per nine innings (the lowest mark in baseball among qualified pitchers) and giving up far more than his fair share of home runs, Blackburn has been “off” this season.

His BABIP isn’t too far off line and he is inducing more groundballs than he usually does, which is what he needs to do to be successful in 2010. Against the mighty Yankees offense, I’m guessing a full return to his usually-reliable self isn’t going to happen.

This series will be the last time the Twins play the Yankees this season. While too much shouldn’t be read into a mid-May series, any matchup of two of the best teams in baseball is important.

Another series loss would leave an awful taste in Twins fans’ mouths, but a good showing could help spring-board a successful June for Minnesota.

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Remember last October when the Yankees swept the Twins in the American League Playoffs? This was after the Twins had clawed their way back to win the Central Division crown while the league-leading Tigers swooned. Impossible to forget.

Remember the final moments of Twins baseball inside the Metrodome? With its artificial landscape contained by a shabby, baseball-colored roof that held and intensified noise to exhausting, bone-jarring levels—the Dome rocked and rolled. On that final Sunday there were 54,735 fans packed inside, all screaming for a win until the last pitch.

Remember being down 4-1 in the bottom of the the ninth as Twins third baseman Brendan Harris stood in the batters box with Michael Cuddyer safe on second base? Within that deafening roar as the count stood 2-0, Harris swung hard, hitting a ground ball to the shortstop who threw him out at first.

The Dome literally imploded sucking in the last gasped hope for glory, finally exhaling a huge release—sending the 2009 season for the Twins into the record book. The final out stopped their remarkable come-from-behind mentality, overridden finally by injury and fatigue—and, of course, the Yankees.

The team from New York was moving on to star in other spectacles of baseball glory. In the end they would win their 27th World Series after putting the Angels and then the Phillies respectively in their places.

The Twins, meanwhile, were just moving.

At long last the Twins were abandoning the antiquated Metrodome—the home of the club since April 3, 1982. In 2010 the team would begin play at Target Field in a new outdoor, state-of-the-art facility. The Twins were growing “green.”

In all of Major League Baseball, especially the ALCD, there was not a manager who shed a tear over the realization that his team would never again return to play in the Dreaded Dome. It was the most detested facility in the AL. Owners and managers did not hesitate to voice their opinions about the inadequacies of the facility. The Dome was, as far as they were concerned, another key player on the Twins roster.

It was, however, home to the Twins, bringing the team a bit of luck and a huge reserve of home field advantage when they needed it most—except against the Yankees.

Despite the moral victory of making the playoffs after defeating the Tigers to clinch the Central Division title, the sweep by the Yankees still stung in the waning moments of the 2009 season. Nobody likes to end with a goose-egg.

In fact, the Twins never defeated the Yankees in 2009. They were 0-7 during the regular season as well as 0-3 in the playoffs.

That doesn’t mean the Twins rolled over and died when they faced the Yankees. They fought hard, losing six of the seven regular season games by two runs or less—two of the seven went into extra innings.

It had to be doubly galling to come so close so often and come away empty-handed time after time. The Twins could never get over the hump when they faced the Bronx Bombers last year.

Like most teams in MLB, the Twins simply lacked the pitching depth required to outlast the powerful Yankee lineup. Also, during the playoffs, the Twins were without Justin Morneau who suffered from a stress fracture in his back and was missing from the lineup at the end of the season. The vaunted first baseman wreaked havoc with the Yankee pitching staff during the regular season—but not enough to give the Twins a victory.

With 2009 in the books—MLB is currently in week six and the Twins stand alone atop the Central Division with a 22-12 record. At this same juncture a year ago, the the team stood 15-17, starting the season with some key players injured.

Things are definitely looking up for the Twins as they settle into Target Field. They sell out almost every game as fans pack the stands, waiting.

The new facility plus the signing of MVP catcher Joe Mauer and the return of Morneau have pundits and fans talking positively about enjoying post-season play again. The return of Francisco Liriano to top form on the mound has added another degree of optimism. So far Liriano has enjoyed stellar results with only one bad outing against Baltimore in his first loss of the season. Liriano is 4-1 with an ERA of 2.36.

But now the true test awaits. The Twins must face the Yankees during a three-game road trip to the Big Apple starting Friday May 14. Having lost 10 in a row, the Twins need to stand up to the 2009 MLB champs and stop letting the Yankees kick sand in their faces. The Twins are no longer second tier to anybody—not even the famed New York Yankees.

At present the Yankees have the same record as the Twins at 22-12. But they stand second in the AL East behind the astounding Tampa Bay Rays at 24-10.

Starting for the Twins in New York on Friday will be their best to date, Francisco Liriano who is 4-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.36. The Yankees will place A. J. Burnett on the mound with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 3.40.

The ultimate challenge of the season will come in New York where the Twins need to find a way to stop the 10-game losing streak to start a new world order in 2010. They must complete the transformation by drawing a line in the sand and taking game one in New York.

So what if the Bronx Bombers have lost only two games at home? That means the odds are in the Twins favor to reverse the trend. All the Twins have to do is remember October 11, 2009—a rainy Sunday afternoon when the Yankees shut the door on the Twins and sent them home for the rest of the season.

Step up to the plate, boys, and remember the Metrodome—win one for 28 years of baseball magic on a diamond where it never rained…

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Championships are not won or lost in May, but if the Minnesota Twins plan on making a serious playoff run and contend for the World Series this year, the next seven games could tell us plenty.

The Twins embark on a three-city road trip with three games against the Yankees and two each at Toronto and Boston.

Since 2002, when Ron Gardenhire became manager, the Minnesota Twins are 68-104 against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays—a lowly .395 winning percentage. This is  150 points lower than Gardenhire’s overall winning percent of .546 over his eight seasons as the Twins’ skipper.   

On the road against these teams the winning percentage drops to .333.

It is even worse against the Yankees. Including playoff games, the Twins are 5-26 at Yankees Stadium, a miserable .161 winning percentage.

Based on these historical numbers we can expect the Twins being swept by the Yankess and, at best, gaining a split of the remaining four games in Toronto and Boston, resulting in a 2-5 road trip.

In the same span of eight days, the Detroit Tigers play eight games, six at home against New York, Boston, and Chicago and two road games against the Western Division leading Oakland A’s.

If the Tigers go 6-2 they would find themselves leading the Central Division by half a game over the Twins on May 21st. 

But this year, something feels different with the Twins.

• They lose All-Star closer, Joe Nathan, for the season and Jon Rauch steps in has converted nine of 10 save opportunities.
• Joe Mauer is shelved for six games, flirting with placement on the DL, and his replacement, Wilson Ramos, gets seven hits in his first two games behind the plate.
• Francisco Liriano is considered as a replacement for Nathan, an assignment he turns down. He is then penciled in as the fifth starter and has emerged as the staff ace.
• What at first appeared to be an inconsistent starting staff as emerged a strength for the club, with four of five starters with four victories.

The Twins still have only lost one series all season, having split the past two with Baltimore and Chicago.

Yes, this year definitely feels different, and the Twins have a great opportunity to prove they are for real to the baseball world. Nothing would do that better than a 5-2 record on this east coast road trip.

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The old baseball adage is that pitching and defense wins championships. That being the case, the Minnesota Twins appear to be going in the right direction in 2010.

The starting pitching, led by Francisco Liriano, appears to be the strongest and deepest staff the Twins have had in ten seasons. Four of the starters have spent their entire major-league careers with the Twins. Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey have all been a part of the rotation since 2008.

They average four years of experience with an average age of 27. Baker is the elder statesman at 28, and is in his sixth season with the Twins.

In 2009 the Twins added Carl Pavano, who in his 14th major league season, adds a veteran presence to the rotation.

Comparing the success of the starting pitching in 2010 over the past ten seasons confirms that this is a strong staff. The starters are pitching deeper in games with an average of 6.33 innings per start—the third highest since 2000.

With two complete games already this year, the 2010 staff has more complete games than the 2001 staff and almost half as many as any team since 2007.  

Manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson appear to have increased confidence in their starters, allowing them to go longer in their starts and throwing more pitches.

The starters have averaged 96 pitches per start while exceeding the 100-pitch count ten times already this season.

Liriano has thrown at least 92 pitches in every start and 123 against Cleveland in his last start. This many pitches is almost unheard of for a Twins’ pitcher.  

Gardenhire’s confidence was very much on display in a recent game against Detroit. With the Twins leading 3—2, he sent Blackburn out in the ninth allowing him to get the win and the complete game.

With Jon Rauch having converted eight of nine save opportunities, it could not have been due to lack of confidence in the first year closer.

The pitching staff is getting the job done. It is currently third in the AL in ERA at 3.60, and second in all of Major League Baseball with only 76 walks allowed.

Liriano, at one time considered for closer, has become the staff’s stopper with a 4-0 record and a 1.50 ERA. In three of five starts, Liriano has earned the victory following a Twins’ loss.  

If the starters can continue to pitch effectively and stay healthy, the Twins will cruise to another AL Central Division title and a great chance of getting past the divisional round of the playoffs.

Miscellaneous observations and questions:

• After going seven for eight in his first two games Wilson Ramos has cooled to one for 11 the past three. What will the Twins do when Joe Mauer returns? Could one of these two end up playing third base, adding some power to the lineup?
• With depth in the starting rotation and pitchers Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing appearing ready to join the rotation, is there a chance that Pavano will be playing for his sixth team?
• How long will Twins’ fans have to wait for Justin Morneau’s first Target field home run?
• When will Michael Cuddyer hit his first road home run?

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Winning six of seven series to start the season, the signing of the hometown hero to a long-term contract, and the opening of a new ballpark has many fans thinking World Series.

The first Twins’ first World Championship occurred in 1987. For many fans, this team will always have a special place in our hearts.

This was the first professional team to win a title for the state of Minnesota.

As then second baseman Steve Lombardozzi proclaimed after the Twins defeated the St. Louis Cardinals four games to three, “We are no longer the Twinkies!”

Comparing this year’s team with the Twins’ 1987 World Championship team provides many similarities—and a lot of hope.

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