Kuzul

Baseball’s arbitration deadline is tomorrow, and several teams still have decisions to make.

A Type-A free agent who is offered arbitration and signs with a new team nets his former team a first-round draft pick and a supplemental draft pick. A Type-B free agent is worth a second-round draft pick and a supplemental pick. But there’s always the risk that a player will accept arbitration and be paid more than his worth to stay with his current team.

So do teams offer these free agents arbitration and hope that they’ll decline and sign elsewhere? Or do they withhold arbitration and abandon any chance of recouping draft picks?

Here’s a look at the 15 free agents most likely not to receive arbitration and why.

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New York Yankee pinstripes are the only uniform Derek Jeter has worn in his professional baseball career.

Over his 16 seasons in those pinstripes, Jeter maintained the shortstop position and for the last 11 years has been the team’s Captain.

Jeter all-around made it easy to forget that he is actually human, but reality kicked in this past season—not surprising, considering he is 36 plus years old.

Coming to Jeter’s defense, it was just one bad season and it followed a career best in 2009.

In most situations, a person would inevitably get the benefit of the doubt, except in professional sports, due to the high demands it entails physically.

Contracts and salaries are impacted by age, which makes sense in view of the physical demands of the job.

Jeter is special to the Yankees organization, without question. He is a natural leader whose presence alone demands respect. Jeter’s humble demeanor is unique for a man with his status and successes.

His legacy is not and never will be in question.

So, the timing of Jeter’s Yankee contract expiring is not ideal. Where do you draw the line between what Jeter has done and what his future beholds on the baseball field?

The answer is you acknowledge both: Jeter’s significance in the past is grand enough that it should be reflected with his new contract, but so does his wear and tear.

The Yankees know this, and the organization acted accordingly.

GM Brian Cashman, along with Owner Hal Steinbrenner and President Randy Levine offered Jeter a three-year contract with a base salary of $21 million dollars per season.

To say that offer is fair would be an understatement.

Three more years are all the risk the Yankees should take, unless Jeter shows them otherwise at age 40.

The $21 million a season is above and beyond Jeter’s current value, but it exhibits the organizations gratitude and respect for Jeter the person.

It is not my place to guess what Jeter is thinking or what is behind his reasoning of not accepting this contract.

Yankee fans want the Captain back, as clearly does the organization.

For the first time, I am questioning whether Jeter wants to continue wearing his pinstripes and at what cost.

Let me make it clear, this is something I never thought or wanted to doubt.

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The free agency class of the 2011 season is not something worth getting too excited about. There are no real game-changing faces coming onto the market, and this means that I hope you enjoyed last season.

Without a talent-heavy market, except for Cliff Lee, of course, there is no reason to believe that the results of last season will be any different this year. The Yankees or the Rangers will most likely sign Lee, and Crawford is also looking to be wearing pinstripes with bulging pockets.

This means the top prospects are: Jayson Werth, most notably a doubles hitter who has only once topped 30 home runs; Victor Martinez, who will most likely re-sign with the Red Sox; and Paul Konerko, typically, a DH who will not be able to find work in the National League.

Unless one team goes out and signs a combination of talent including Garland, Berkman and maybe outbids the Yankees or Red Sox on the Lee or Crawford deal, we will see a repeat of last year’s playoffs. Thankfully, there is no salary cap to keep things a bit more level.

The Yankees have already stated that their current salary will be the same as last year, which makes me wonder what moves they plan on making to their current roster to make room for Crawford and Lee.

I assume they believe someone may be dumb enough to take Burnett, possibly a small-market NL team looking to rehash an old arm that had success there once before. The other play would be Granderson, a lot simpler to move and currently a road block for the Crawford deal.

This of course is in the assumption that they wouldn’t move Granderson around the outfield with Crawford comfortably in center field. Either way, a similar salary is hugely unlikely for a pitching staff that runs a three-man staff when successful.

If they do lose the Lee deal, they may make a play for Garland who will be looking for about $6 million this year. Not exactly a small contract.

Pavano will come off the books, which will free up about $1.5 million. Either way, the players who are rumored to be moving are from small teams, such as Greinke from the Royals, Gonzalez from the Padres and Carmona from the Indians, who have already provided the rest of the league with talent like Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Victor Martinez and Manny Ramirez.

One glaring truth that makes me believe my prediction will be correct was the signing of David Ortiz by the Red Sox. This will be the worst signing of the offseason, and we’re one month in.

They are going to pay him over $12 million, I assume because they believe they will stay with the $12 million devil they know rather than the $8 million they don’t. Ortiz jerseys will after all sell a hell of a lot better than a Konerko or Thome jersey.

This season, smaller teams will look to strengthen their farm leagues while squeezing out the rest of the revenue from their remaining big names. I hope Royal fans didn’t go nuts on those Greinke jerseys, but don’t worry, there might be a Pavano run in your future.

All this truly means is that barring injury, the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Rangers and Twins will all be fighting it out once again for their respective seedings in the AL, while the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and pitching-reliant Giants will dominate the NL.

Although it was nice to have a different World Series champ almost every year it seems lately, things are about to go full circle again from a legit pool of about seven teams. I wouldn’t go to Vegas to place a bet on the Mariners or Astros just yet, but a continuation of your Yankee bet from last year sounds about right.

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I understand the Detroit Tigers have a lot of money to spend this offseason. But there are both smart and moronic ways to spend it.

Spending over $15 million on a 33-year-old middle reliever who didn’t even pitch in 2009 is moronic.

The Tigers signed RHP Joaquin Benoit on Wednesday to a three-year, $16.5 million contract. Benoit can earn another $one million a year if he reaches certain incentives.

This is the type of contract that gets a GM fired.

Benoit was a ham ‘n’ egger up until last year and he missed the entire 2009 season recovering from rotator cuff surgery. Then out of nowhere, Benoit had a spectacular 2010 season for the Tampa Bay Rays.

He tossed to a 1.34 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 11.2 Ks/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 38.9 percent groundball rate in 60.1 IP. Those are some impressive numbers by anyone’s standards.

However, if you look deeper into his numbers, I don’t think there is anyway Benoit can repeat his 2010 season in 2011 and beyond.

First, he had an unsustainable .201 BABIP. The .201 BABIP was the lowest in baseball in 2010. The law of averages say that number will increase in 2011.

Second, I look at Benoit’s Left on Base Percentage in 2010. He led baseball in that category, as well. Benoit stranded a ridiculous 95 percent of his runners on base in 2010.

I don’t think there is any chance he maintains that in 2011.

You take Benoit doing worse in those categories and combine it with him being on the wrong side of 30 when this contract ends, and this signing has disaster written all over it.

The Tigers definitely needed a more reliable right-handed setup man than Joel Zumaya. They also need a right-handed compliment to Phil Coke.

So in that sense, I don’t mind the Benoit signing as a pitcher. I just can’t, for the life of me, believe that the Tigers would give him a $16.5 million contract.

It’s amazing how the numbers of the contract dictate how we, as fans, view the signing.

If the Tigers signed Benoit to a one or two-year deal for $two or three million a year, I don’t think anyone would have blinked, and I think we would be saying positive things about the signing. Instead, Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski hands out a $16.5 million contract to Benoit and he is getting blasted by everyone, including myself.

I also questioned Dombrowski on his re-signing of Brandon Inge. So far, it hasn’t been that great of an offseason for the Tigers.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Ahead of the 2010 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings (Dec. 6-9), rumors are swirling around Cliff Lee and other big name free agents.

Both the Yankees and Rangers have already visited with Lee, and yesterday Dan Uggla was traded from the Florida Marlins to the Atlanta Braves for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn.

As we get closer to the Winter Meetings, baseball’s Hot Stove will heat up greatly. So let’s take a moment to try and guess destinations for Cliff Lee and 10 other big name free agents. 

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This player’s name is the last one any New York Yankee player or fan wants to hear: Carl Pavano, also known in the Bronx as the “American Idle.” 

Let me put it this way, for those of you who thought Javier Vazquez was disliked in the Bronx, Pavano makes Vazquez the Yankees prom-king.

Truth remains that Pavano is the next free agent considered to be worthwhile behind Cliff Lee, for at least 29 MLB teams.

Here is my warning…PROCEED WITH CAUTION.

Most Yankees fans never saw Pavano on the mound. That is because he only pitched 26 games, with injuries all the way from his shoulder to his buttocks. Pavano had record of 9-8 while in pinstripes, so his option for a fourth year was never going to happen.

Pavano’s three years in the Yankees rotation turned into more like $39.95 million vacation.

Pavano left New York with the impression of a slacker, as ironically the minute he was out of Yankees uniform he preformed well again and injury-free.

In 2009, Pavano made 33 starts, 21 games as a Cleveland Indiana and 12 as a Minnesota Twin. Pavano threw 200 innings in total, 50 more innings than his three-year total in the Bronx. Pavano threw one shutout and one complete game in 2009, to go along with his 147 strikeouts.

To go from zero to hero in one offseason is all the proof that was needed.

This past season Pavano was the Twins ace, finishing with a 17-11 record, over 221 innings, striking out 117 batters and an ERA of 3.75. He spent a total of zero days on the DL for the second season in a row. Pavano also was named the Twins pitcher of the year for 2010.

Nothing is more cowardly than not trying, taking the easy way out. Pavano might be a rich man, but one who can’t walk around publicly in New York City. At least I would not advise it, nor would he want to run into me.

Whether or not Pavano says his elbow, shoulder, knee, ribs and ass injuries were all real became irrelevant by his actions. They told another story, of a pitcher Yankee fans never knew, and it happened in too short a time considering the extent of this man’s injuries.

Hopefully, Pavano is a changed athlete because of the weak market sans Lee he is sure to go for a much higher price in this offseason market.

At least I know one fact, Carl Pavano won’t be an overpaid Yankee and that is a sentence  rarely said about any player and the Bronx Bombers.

More of a reason—Yankees better offer Cliff Lee the moon, sun and Pavano’s ass to get him in pinstripes.

GM Brain Cashman says the Yankees don’t need Lee. I agree, it’s much more desperate than that, the Yankees will bleed Lee if necessary.

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According to Fox Sports’ South West Division, Brian Cashman has spoken to the media saying the New York Yankees have interest in the Rangers’ southpaw pitcher, but they are not “desperate.” Cliff Lee is the most talented free agent pitcher on the market this Winter and the New York Yankees are always the most aggressive on the free-agent fronts. 

The Yankees have the money and interest to sign Cliff Lee. The cards just have to fall right and Lee accept an offer. 

A lot has been made about the disrespect received by Cliff Lee’s wife at a postseason game at Yankee Stadium. Brian Cashman made a trip out to Cliff Lee’s home to meet with the lefty’s agent, the pitcher himself and his wife. 

The direct quote from Fox Sports’ conversation with Cashman has him saying: “I don’t feel like we are in a desperate situation here. I think we have a lot of quality players on this team that won 95 games and fell two games short of a World Series…That’s when you have to be willing to roll with the punches and have Plan Bs, Cs, Ds and Fs up there.”

The Yankees believe themselves to be the front-runners in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes due to their money and possible contract length. They could be underestimating Nolan Ryan and the Texas Rangers’ front-office. The Angels are also in the game for a pitcher and Lee looks attractive. 

It’s pretty clear that the Yankees are not alone and will have some big competition for Cliff Lee and at some point they may have to change their stance from not desperate to absolutely necessary to sign. The Yankees are on the clock to make a move. 

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Although the Yankees are considered the current front-runner for Lee’s services based on their financial resources alone, there are sure to be plenty of other teams who make a run for the crafty lefty.

Measuring Lee’s worth is no small task, as his success has not stretched over the duration of his career; he’s been nothing short of amazing since 2008.

What teams could benefit from adding him to the staff?

Every team in the league, that’s for sure.

However, the following 10 teams are the most realistic suitors in addition to the Bronx Bombers.

1. New York Mets, NL East

With staff ace Johan Santana out until at least May at the very earliest, the Mets are slated to go with either R.A. Dickey or Mike Pelfrey as the 2011 Opening Day starter. If the team hopes to actually fill the seats in their beautiful stadium, that’s not a good look.

The Metropolitans will be hesitant to hand out another multi-year, lucrative deal to a starter after doing so with Santana, and new GM Sandy Alderson is not the type of guy to dole out huge dollars on a guy that only takes the field once every five days.

2. Washington Nationals, NL East

If the Nationals ever hope to compete in their division, the team is going to need a legitimate ace to do so, and there’s no better definition than Lee. Although some believe that the Nats don’t have the dollars necessary to make it happen, General Manager Mike Rizzo has indicated that they are looking at every and any way to improve the ballclub.

Should the Nationals be able to lure the lefty onto the squad, they’d finally have the beginnings of something special in the Washington rotation that could help bring future free agents to the re-building franchise.

3. Minnesota Twins, AL Central

The Twinnies seem to make a postseason appearance every season regardless of who is on the roster, so just imagine what Lee could do for this team. While Minnesota probably doesn’t have the money necessary to pull the trigger, Lee would flourish magnificently in Minny.

SP Francisco Liriano is still a bit of a question mark, and the depth behind him is mediocre, at best. A potent pairing of the killer L’s atop the Twins rotation could be awfully intimidating for opponents, and go a very long way toward the team finally being able to beat the Yanks.

4. Milwaukee Brewers, NL Central

Anyone who watched CC Sabathia pitch the Brewers into the playoffs, can imagine what Lee could do for the franchise. A rotation that seems to be constantly toiling in mediocrity, the Brewers would greatly benefit from adding a long-term anchor at the helm.

With a lineup that boasts both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, Lee could win well over 20 games in what is arguably baseball’s easiest division.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers, NL West

It’s too bad that the Dodgers are facing tough financial times in the wake of the McCourt family drama, because Los Angeles would be the perfect spotlight for Lee to shine.

The NL West is undoubtedly the worst offensive division in baseball, and Lee would have a field day facing the D-Backs and Padres on a regular basis.

6. Detroit Tigers, AL Central

Despite the Tigers having a very prolific offense last season, they failed to make it to the playoffs yet again. Already with blossoming starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the Tigers would have the best 1-2-3 in baseball if they added Cliff Lee.

With Detroit having around $50 million coming off the books, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they decide to spend lavishly and go for the big free-agent splash. If they sign C Victor Martinez, Lee’s battery-mate for the good majority of his career, it bodes even better for their chances.

7. Toronto Blue Jays, AL East

After shocking the world with their success this season, the Blue Jays are clearly a team on the rise in a very competitive division. If they have any hope of ever finding themselves back in postseason play ahead of the Yankees and/or Red Sox, it starts with signing Lee.

With youngsters Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek looking to be a big (and cheap) part of the Jays’ rotation plans, adding the veteran Lee would provide an immense boost to the entire clubhouse.

Lee may want to have his passport at the ready.

8. Chicago White Sox, AL Central

GM Kenny Williams is known to be a big time gambler as evidenced by his track record, and who better to go all in with than Lee?

The Jake Peavy acquisition hasn’t gone exactly according to plan, and the team already has a solid offensive core to pair with rising starters John Danks and Gavin Floyd. If they can get Lee to man the top spot in the rotation, there could be bright times ahead for the South Side Sox.

9. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, AL West

The Angels would be higher up on this list if they weren’t rumored to already be heavily after free agents Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre.

Having said that, should the Halos swing and miss on one or both of the aforementioned, the Angels have a legitimate chance to steal Lee off the market. With a ton of money to spend and owner Arte Moreno ready to sign his name, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lee land in LA after all.

10. Baltimore Orioles, AL East

The Baltimore pitching staff has been so notoriously bad over past season’s that the 2009 staff ace was Kevin Milwood.

After missing out on adding Teixeira to the team, perhaps the O’s brass will once again be willing to open up their checkbooks for this extraordinary talent. Should Baltimore be able to somehow land Lee, it would not only boost team morale, but additionally would serve as the initial stepping stone toward re-building the pitching staff.

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The silence of free agency is overwhelming New York Yankees fans, as rumors of contract negotiations and who is going where are circling the sports media.

No one really knows much except that Yankees GM Brian Cashman met with ex-captain Derek Jeter in Tampa Bay, FL. Then, Cashman and crew headed to Benton, Arkansas to pay a visit to the home of free agent ace Cliff Lee.

Cashman also made a point to meet with catcher Jorge Posada so there was no confusion to his role for the 2011 season. To no surprise, Posada will primarily be a DH but still catch around 40-50 games. Posada was told to stick to his regular offseason regime and come to spring training ready to catch.

The only other fact confirmed by the Yankees is that a scheduled meeting with closer Mariano Rivera and his agents was up next.

Everyone wants this drama to have an ending ASAP.

What is most bothersome is the media’s new found shredding of Derek Jeter, which is a major embarrassment.

ESPN is turning into TMZ, featuring stories of icons like Jeter, Favre and Bonds, but the difference is Jeter is a gentleman. Jeter is not hopped on ‘roids or sending pornographic pictures to married women.

Jeter only won a Gold Glove, not because he campaigned hard to win nut. The voting for the Gold Glove Awards consists of all MLB managers and coaches, but they cannot vote for anyone on their respective teams. So, if haters need to blame anyone it’s the 29 non-Yankee managers for giving Jeter the award.

Jeter is a true real role model, works hard, and doesn’t cheat on his wife with hookers or harsh any woman he wants. Jeter is a winner, who is deeply respected by his peers and has still remained a humble captain.

That’s all the facts as of today. Plenty of hearsay and diarrhea of the mouth has and will go one, but until it comes out of Cashman’s mouth it is best to ignore it.

Please note: Robinson Cano won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger; Mark Teixeira won a Gold Glove. Congratulations to both of them.

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