Kuzul

With the ungodly signing of Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract the cost of outfield help has gone through the roof. The Tigers are most likely working pretty hard to get a deal in place with Magglio Ordonez to be the right fielder in 2011. However, because of the lack of outfield depth on the free-agent market, Ordonez might be able to land a ridiculous deal. If that happens the Tigers may be forced to look to the trade market.

Dave Dombrowski has shown himself to be an aggressive, gutsy GM. He’s pulled off deals that have worked extremely well (Cabrera, Jackson and company) and some not so much (Renteria). His successes and failures haven’t stopped him from going all out to try and make his team better. Also, knowing how much owner Mike Ilitch likes big-name players, it would not be surprising to see Detroit go after a “shocking” trade. These are two trades I think the Tigers should look into, or at least think about. 

Trade One

Detroit sends SP Andy Oliver, Armando Galarraga, OF Brennan Boesch or Ryan Raburn, and RP Brandon Wise to Milwaukee for OF Ryan Braun and a PTNL (Player to be Named Later).

Two important elements of this: First, Braun would have to OK the trade, and second, Detroit might not be willing to give up major-league quality players to land Braun. 

Why Detroit Would Make This Trade

Braun’s numbers are impressive, despite an apparent decline over the last year. He’s averaged over 31 home runs, 107 RBI and hit above .300 for the last three years. Braun would probably hit fifth, with Victor Martinez moving to the third spot in the Tigers lineup.

The PTNL would probably be a draft pick somewhere between rounds 2-5, which Detroit would probably spend on a pitcher. It became very clear last year that the Tigers absolutely needed to add some more punch to their lineup and adding Braun and Martinez would accomplish that. If Boesch is sent, Raburn will get the chance to start in right, and if it’s Raburn who is sent over, then Boesch will battle with Casper Wells to be the starter in right with the loser being the fourth outfielder. 

Why Milwaukee Would Make This Trade

First, if I were Milwaukee I would want Raburn over Boesch. Raburn hits for a higher average and has shown pretty good power, plus he is a player who can play a lot of positions giving the Brewers some flexibility with double switches and the like. Boesch is a player who seems to project as a high strikeout/above average power guy. It wouldn’t surprise me if Boesch ended up being a player who hits 30-35 home runs with 160 or so strikeouts. 

Also, Milwaukee has made no secret of its need and desire to add pitching to a club that had one of the worst ERAs in the senior circuit last year. Oliver is one of the highly regarded LH starters in the minors, and is considered a candidate in Detroit for the fifth spot in the rotation. He projects as a top three pitcher and would give balance to an improving Milwaukee rotation. 

Galarraga is a pitcher who I think is better suited to play in the national league. He is still young enough and cheap enough that he is worth the flier. If nothing else, Galarraga has shown he can pitch in the majors and would add depth.

Brandon Wise is one of the better minor-league bullpen arms for Detroit. He should be able to compete for a big-league spot, and adds depth for a team in desperate need of pitching depth. 

Trade Two

Detroit Sends SP Andy Oliver, OF/IF Ryan Raburn, SP Bryan Villarreal, SS Jhonny Peralta and OF Avisail Garcia to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona sends OF Justin Upton, SS Steven Drew, and SP Mike Belfiore.

Things to note: Justin Upton would have to waive his no trade clause to Detroit. Also, I’m not sure what MLB’s rules are on trading players who have just signed. I think if you pulled Drew and Peralta out, both clubs would be able to tell their fans they are in a better position after the deal.

Why Detroit Makes This Trade

The Tigers are trying to add some bulk and defense to their outfield. Upton is still a very young player, who is still developing. He is an above average defender, hits for average (career .272), with some power (19 HRs and 25 doubles averaged over the last three years) and still strikes out too much, but does have a career OBP above .350.

In Drew the Tigers would get a player who is an improvement defensively, with a higher batting average and almost exact power numbers (16 HRs and 35 doubles). The other advantage for the Tigers is Drew is several years younger. Mike Belfiore would give Detroit a pitcher to replace Bryan Villarreal in the lower rung of the Tigers system and would be a developmental pitcher for Detroit. 

Why Arizona Makes This Trade

The Diamondbacks have a new GM who is trying to build up the big-league team and the farm at the same time. Last year’s team really struggled. In Oliver and Villarreal they would have two of Detroit’s better pitchers from the farm. Oliver a left-handed starter would most likely start the season as the No. 3 or 4 pitcher and could improve from there. Villarreal is a developmental pitcher, but put up very solid numbers in two stops this year.

Ryan Raburn has been considered a better fit in the NL because of his versatility. Raburn is a step down defensively, but could end up with the same or slightly better power. Raburn can play any of the three outfield spots and can also play 1B, 2B and 3B. Peralta is affordable and the club would have the option for a third year. Avisail Garcia is considered one of Detroit’s top outfield prospects. He projects to hit for average and power, and play better defense. It is possible Garcia makes it to the majors in 2012.

Ramifications for Detroit

I believe either of these deals would help the Tigers in 2011, however with both of them the Tigers would need to make a couple of moves after the deal to solidify their depth. If Raburn is included in either deal, I think there is still a chance they try and sign Maggs to a one to two-year contract.

Also, Detroit would probably want to target another pitcher to compete for the fifth spot in the Tigers rotation. I would love to see the Tigers follow up a deal like this with a Carl Pavano and Magglio Ordonez signings. If Magglio isn’t signed, then Casper Wells/Ryan Raburn/Brennan Boesch will fill his spot.

Projected Tigers Lineup for Both Trades

Milwaukee Trade

1. CF Austin Jackson (.293, four home runs, 34 doubles, 103 runs, 41 RBI)

2. 2B Will Rhymes (.304, one home run, 12 doubles, 30 runs, 19 RBI)

3. RF Magglio Ordonez (.303, 12 home runs, 17 doubles, 56 runs, 59 RBI)

4. 1B Miguel Cabrera (.328, 38 home runs, 45 doubles, 111 runs, 126 RBI)

5. LF Ryan Braun (.304, 25 homes runs, 45 doubles, 101 runs, 103 RBI)

6. DH Victor Martinez (.302, 20 home runs, 32 doubles, 64 runs, 79 RBI)

7. SS Jhonny Peralta (.249, 15 home runs, 30 doubles, 60 runs, 81 RBI)

8. 3B Brandon Inge (.247, 13 home runs, 28 doubles, 47 runs, 70 RBI)

9. C Alex Avila (.228, seven home runs, 12 doubles, 28 runs, 31 RBI)

Rotation 

1. Justin Verlander

2. Max Scherzer

3. Phil Coke

4. Rick Porcello

5. Free agent/minor-league call-up

For Arizona Trade

1. CF Austin Jackson (.293, four home runs, 34 doubles, 103 runs, 41 RBI)

2. SS Steven Drew (.278, 15 home runs, 33 doubles, 83 runs, 61 RBI)

3. LF Justin Upton (.273, 17 home runs, 27 doubles, 73 runs, 69 RBI)

4. 1B Miguel Cabrera (.328, 38 home runs, 45 doubles, 111 runs, 126 RBI)

5. DH Victor Martinez (.302, 20 home runs, 32 doubles, 64 runs, 79 RBI)

6. RF Magglio Ordonez (.303, 12 home runs, 17 doubles, 56 runs, 59 RBI)

7. 3B Brandon Inge (.247, 13 home runs, 28 doubles, 47 runs, 70 RBI)

8. 2B Will Rhymes (.304, one home run, 12 doubles, 30 runs, 19 RBI)

9. C Alex Avila (.228, seven home runs, 12 doubles, 28 runs, 31 RBI)

Rotation

1. Justin Verlander

2. Max Scherzer

3. Phil Coke

4. Rick Porcello

5. Armando Galarraga/free agent/minor-leaguer

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Picture a young kid, no older than 12, hitting hundreds of baseballs into a ragged net, or throwing them at a makeshift backstop. They grow up with huge dreams, living in an impoverished nation of less than 10 million people.

Aside from the location, their dream sounds none to different than the one we all had, right? Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two out. The pennant on the line. With one swing, you win a ring, the love of a city, and secure financial stability for your family.

Of course, these two things aren’t really alike at all.

Picture that young kid again. Except this time he’s the target of a scout, or as they’re called locally: a buscon. The kid can run like the wind. He’s tall and strong. His parents, like so many here, are poor. Or, perhaps his parents aren’t around at all.

So, instead of being in school like we were when having these dreams, the kids are at a makeshift academy, ran by buscones. They live here, eat here and learn baseball here all under poor conditions. They’re sometimes honing their baseball skills under the direction of former prospects who went through the same situation.

There are lots of stories to be found about buscones. The large chunks of the signing bonus some take in return for the training. The way some of them help the kids lie about their ages and pump them with drugs: often of the performance enhancing variety.

Like anything, this isn’t always the case. One report from MLB identified Dominican imports committing identity fraud at a clip of 60 percent in 2002, but had that number reduced to 25 percent by 2009. So, progress has been made.

And, there are some success stories. From David Ortiz to Hanley Ramirez. Miguel Tejada to Vladimir Guerrero. Considering the size of the country, some big name players have emerged. Big money is going to players who are unpolished and untested, but have real athletic ability.

Like the steroid problem in the ’90s, when bad PR comes out, MLB moves fast and hard with corrective actions. Sandy Alderson was tasked with cleaning up some of the mess. Drug testing, identity verification, better facilities for training, English lessons and other steps have been taken within the academies ran by MLB clubs. Twenty-eight of the 30 clubs now have an academy in the DR.

There are less and less instances of exploited prospects being trust into American culture with added pressure to perform well at their craft. The kids are being taken care of better now. So, are the risks lower for teams?

Word came out on Monday that the Seattle Mariners have signed 17-year-old shortstop Esteilon Peguero, with a signing bonus of $4.9 million. Only three players in Mariners history have received bigger bonuses: Dustin Ackley, Ichiro Suzuki and Jeff Clement.

I asked Dave Cameron, co-founder of USSMariner.com and editor at FanGraphs.com if Mariners fans should be even a little stoked, regardless of how little we can possible know about Peguero, considering the size of the bonus. “These kids are lottery tickets,” he said, “but when they hit, they can be a big deal.”

It seems there is still quite a bit of risk involved. Peguero could be the next diamond in the rough, or he could be a sunk cost that returns home to poverty after several years of performing below expectations.

The good news is that regardless of the outcome, they’re being better taken care of during the process. They aren’t being told to lie about who they are. They’re living and training better. They’re even being offered an education outside of baseball by some teams. They aren’t just being treated as a future payday anymore.

The system still isn’t perfect. Neither for the teams or the players. There’s still some corruption and millions of dollars might still be sunk on a kid who never makes it to the show. But if they’re not just glorified slaves sold off to the highest bidder anymore, it’s a gamble much easier to live with.

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My upcoming articles will look at each free agent this season, signed or unsigned, and try to analyze what the player can be expected to do over the coming years, what the player will probably get (or has gotten) on the free agent market, and what I would want to pay the player if I was in charge. I’ll go in the order of Jeff Passan’s free-agent tracker (here), starting with his top-ranked player: Cliff Lee.

Deal he will get: 7 years, 20 million/year

Deal he should get: 4 years, 15 million/year

Lot’s to say about Cliff Lee, but first let’s look at this:

2002-2007: 741.2 innings pitched, 9.3 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.15 K/BB.

2008-2010: 667.1 innings pitched, 8.8 H/9, 1.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 5.64 K/BB

There’s a widespread consensus that Cliff Lee is the best pitcher on the market right now, and I don’t think that’s unreasonable. There are, however, worthwhile questions to be asked about whether he’s going to come at the best value. Estimates for his signing are in the neighborhood of 6 to 7 years for 20+ million annually. My concern is not with the 33-year old Cliff Lee of 2011, but the 38 year old Cliff Lee that looms ahead. If someone wants to be paying 20 million for the 33 and 34 year old Lees, they’re going to have to pay at least that for the 37-38 year old version.

A couple of things are being said in Lee’s favor, one of which is that he “started late.” Well, we don’t really know how much that means. It isn’t as though he never threw a pitch until his 27^th birthday. He had logged over 700 innings before 2008. He only became really good around age 28. He wasn’t overused before that, but he did pitch. I don’t like this “late-bloomer” argument. I acknowledge that he has some good years in his future, but we cannot assume he’s going to be as brilliant as he approaches his fortieth birthday. He has thrown 667.1 innings over the last three years (plus another 76 IP in the playoffs). He was not used to that sort of workload prior. He isn’t a Roy Halladay or a CC Sabathia, injuries are a distinct possibility.

Enough of the bad. Cliff Lee is a pitcher who gets guys out with control, and that’s a relatively rare thing when coupled with such great results. He could stand to lose a few mph on his fastball and still get guys out with his brilliant breaking ball and pinpoint control, so there may be reason to believe that the years won’t hurt him too badly.

There is something special about Cliff Lee’s walk rate. He was a pretty dominant strikeout guy in 2010, with 7.8 per nine innings. Though he faced some weak lineups, to walk 18 guys in 212.1 innings requires some serious talent. Most pitchers probably couldn’t do it even if they tried to throw every pitch right down the middle. Cliff Lee lives on the corners though, so his pitches are not especially hittable, which makes his walk total that much more impressive. His delivery is deceptive (and a joy to watch). His mechanics are sharp, and his success in this respect is not a fluke.

Lee’s average fastball was 91.3 mph in 2010. That’s his highest mark for any season of his career. His curveball was 15 mph slower, with outstanding movement. His best pitch was his fastball, though all of his pitches were effective according to fangraphs’ pitch type values. 69.8% first-pitch strikes led the league (one of only 5 guys north of 65%). 72% of pitches out of the zone were hit, which is interesting. You could say he’s getting ahead early and getting guys to reach for balls they cant square up on. Or you could say guys have spared him a dozen or so walks. It’s clear he has good control; what is unclear is the rate at which this will change over coming years. His 56.6% in-the-zone rate lead all of baseball in 2010.

I love the high strikeout, low walk combination. He had 10.28 strikeouts for every walk in 2010. That’s the third-highest mark ever. Only Bret Saberhagen in 1994 and Candy Cummings in 1875 posted better marks. Baseball was different in Mr. Cummings’ day; he threw 416 innings that year, and struck out 1.8 per nine. He allowed four walks (one per 104 innings).

Back to the injury thing, now. It’s bad resource allocation to tie up 15 to 25 or more percent of your payroll for a guy who is as likely to be hurt as I think Cliff Lee is. I know he isn’t Mark Prior, but Cliff Lee makes sense for a team like the Yankees who bleed dollar bills, and not a whole lot of sense for most other teams.

At the end of the day, I think Cliff Lee is going to be a Yankee. I expect the Yankees to tack one additional year onto whatever Texas offers and up the ante by at least 30 million. His friendship with CC Sabathia will probably overpower any forced smile Nolan Ryan can squeeze out of his stiff face. Going forward, the Yankees will probably give him a better chance of winning, and they’ll employ him until he’s 38.

Make no mistake, Cliff Lee will be good. I wouldn’t want to pay him for seven years though. It’s unfortunate that players tend to be paid for what they have done, rather than what they can be expected to do in the future. We know these two things are rarely congruous.

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When Kevin Towers took over the job as general manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks he had several items on his to-do list to make this team more competitive. The top of that list included rebuilding the worst bullpen in all of Major League Baseball and cut down the number of strikeouts by the offense.

Both of these items were addressed when Arizona sent starting third baseman Mark Reynolds and either a player to be named later or cash to Baltimore for right-handed pitchers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio.

In Hernandez the Diamondbacks receive a pitcher that can either work into the starting rotation or become part of the revamped bullpen. In 2010 Hernandez threw 79 innings striking out 72 while walking 42. He held opponents to a .242 average and had an overall ERA of 4.31. Coming out of the bullpen Hernandez’s ERA was lowered to a 3.51.

Many have suggested Hernandez has closer stuff and he would be better off as a late-inning pitcher. While Hernandez likely will not be the Diamondbacks closer, he could ultimately become one.

Mickolio is a hard-throwing right-hander that came to the Orioles as part of the Erik Bedard deal with the Seattle Mariners. Mickolio is 6’ 9” and has a powerful arm. The Orioles expected him to become a late-inning pitcher but he struggled during spring training and ended up in the minor leagues for most of the season. The Diamondbacks are hoping a change of scenery will help him live up to his potential.

By trading Reynolds the Diamondbacks lowered their team strikeout total by more than 200 per season. Add to that the departure of first baseman Adam LaRoche and the Diamondbacks have cleared nearly 400 strikeouts from the league-leading total.

Reynolds struggled last season hitting just .198 and had more strikeouts than hits for the fourth consecutive season. There is no debating Reynolds’ power but his lack of plate discipline has plagued the Diamondbacks for too long.

Arizona will now be forced to look to replace Reynolds’ 32 home runs and LaRoche’s 100 RBI in a rather meager offense. The Diamondbacks struggled to score runs the past two seasons so losing two of their most productive hitters will definitely be a challenge for Towers at the winter meetings this week.

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Yesterday, conjecture became reality.

After months of speculation that Jayson Werth would leave the Phillies when his contract expired, it became official when the Washington Nationals signed him to a mega-deal.

Most everyone would agree that the terms of the contract widely exceeded expectations.

Even the Nationals GM Mike Rizzo admitted as much by implying that the 7-year, $126 million deal had to be inflated to attract a high profile free agent due to the team’s less than stellar track record. 

Beyond the obvious financial windfall benefiting Werth and his agent Scott Boras, all parties involved seem to lose at some level.

Although the Phillies abundance of remaining talent, headed by the Big Three, will still position them as strong contenders in 2011, the team is clearly worse off without Werth. 

It is apparent to most all observers that the club loses its one big, right-handed power bat to break up its lefty sluggers. More peripherally, though, they lose the type of patient hitter that runs up pitch counts and on base percentage.  

And, for Phillies fans who suffered through watching the Bobby Abreu era, Werth’s defensive range, aggressive baserunning and all out hustle were highly valued.

In fact, these qualities along with his work ethic make him the type of player that Philly fans embrace—although not now that he has jumped ship. 

In anticipation of “J-Dub’s” exit, most pundits and fans have envisioned replacing him with a platoon scenario.

Names such as Ben Francisco, John Mayberry Jr, Matt Diaz, and Jeff Francouer have surfaced to pair with left-handed rookie phenom Domonic Brown.

Unfortunately, none of them possess Werth’s combination of speed, range, arm, or gamer mentality—let alone batting capabilities.  

Besides securing a five-tool player, the Nationals lose on many fronts with this deal.

Even if they can shrug off the scorn from most every other GM and team owner around baseball for raising the bar by handing a 31-year old player with a history of injury a seven-year contract at an average annual salary of $18 million, they still have issues. 

Should Werth’s production start to fade as he moves out of his prime, their return on investment will nose dive.

Even worse, if the injury bug returns, it could happen sooner. 

Part of Rizzo’s rationale for overspending right now is that his club needed to acquire the type of centerpiece necessary to build a winner and signal to other players around the league that Washington has a bright future. 

This seems particularly risky considering that Werth never played that role in Philly.

The free spirited right fielder resided more in the supporting cast behind big name stars such as Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, and Cole Hamels.

This is not to say that Werth is incapable of stepping up to be “The Man,” but placing a nine figure bet on that happening makes a former, round, Philadelphia hoops star’s gambling look like child’s play.    

Lastly, the Nats have been accumulating some nice young talent, but still appear to be a year or two away from serious contention.

The return of Stephen Strasburg from Tommy John surgery and the development of fellow phenom Bryce Harper seem to point to 2012 or 2013 as the season for Washington to emerge from the bottom feeder depths.  

The signing of Werth does not quite align with that timeline. 

And, importantly, despite now being financially set for life, Werth loses a lot by inking this contract. The next seven years will likely never rival the fun and excitement that he experienced while in red pinstripes. 

It all starts with the chemistry in the clubhouse, created by a rare mix of talented, selfless, and winning ballplayers. The Phillies have the intangibles to go with the skills that translates into an enjoyable environment and ultimately success. 

As for today’s Nats—not so much. 

When he steps out of the clubhouse onto the field, it is highly unlikely that Werth will experience the same electric atmosphere that was a constant throughout his stay in Philly. 

Philadelphia’s NL-leading attendance last season was more than double the numbers in Washington.

Nat’s fans occupied 53.9 percent of the stadium each game, while Phillies fans over-stuffed Citizen’s Bank Park at 103.5 percent of capacity. 

Perhaps an even more important difference can be found in the DNA of each set of fans.

Washington fans don’t exactly come to mind when terms like “passionate,” “knowledgeable,” and “vocal” are thrown around the baseball world— but are almost synonymous with those residing in the City of Brotherly Love.  

Werth’s switch of red uniforms also brings a ramped up set of expectations and pressure. It remains to be seen how he will respond to it, but history suggests that those two elements often rob some of the joy of playing a kids game as your everyday occupation. 

Wrapped around all of this is the fact that the Phillies are still built to win now.

No matter how much money is sitting in a bank account or portfolio, winning is always a lot more fun.  

Washington might have a bright future. But, if the Phillies can figure out how to patch the gaping hole left by his departure, it may be a tortuous couple years for Werth watching his former teammates strive for historic excellence. 

Some have reacted to Werth’s contract with anger and disdain, incensed that he would choose money over winning.

Although it is disappointing to see one of my favorite and most admired Phillies players leave town, it is virtually impossible to begrudge him accepting a deal the magnitude that was offered. 

If recent reports have been true, the Nationals offer was three or four years longer and $62-78 million greater than what Ruben Amaro extended to Werth. 

That goes way beyond the range of a hometown discount and vaults into the category of “an offer that can’t be refused.”

Its sad, but true that Werth is no longer a Philly and is now a National. As a result, it will be a little bit less fun for Phillies fans when they head to the park next season.  

And, I suspect, the same will hold true for Werth—perhaps even more-so.   

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If you have read my website (www.sox1fan.com) over the last several years you know that I have an infinite amount of respect for Red Sox GM Theo Epstein. He has proven himself to be a man of courage and principle, as was proven when he traded fan favorite Nomar Garciaparra at the 2004 trade deadline and then took his stand against Larry Lucchino back in 2005.

He has also demonstrated he is bold in the way he will conduct his business, as was apparent when he spent Thanksgiving Day with the Schillings in 2003. There is no question that he is an astute assessor of talent, both on the field and in the front office (except when it comes to selection of a shortstop).

He’s done an incredible job building the farm system and continually replenishing the supply of talent in the minor leagues. Oh yeah, and he (and his protegees) have delivered a pair of world championships to Red Sox Nation.

The string of shortstop misjudgments aside (i.e., Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro), he hasn’t made many errors in his stewardship of the organization. I won’t fault him for Daisuke Matsuzaka, as the entire baseball world believed he scored a coup in that deal.

Brad Penny and John Smoltz? Roll of the dice largely caused by circumstances beyond his control. The Teixeira debacle? It was attributable to the ownership triad that would not go beyond seven years for the current Yankees first baseman.

Look, I’m not giving him a free pass, but no one is perfect. The pluses of his tenure far outweigh the minuses. That is why the just-concluded deal for Adrian Gonzalez just doesn’t make sense to me.

On the face of it, sending three of our top 10 prospects to the San Diego Padres for Gonzalez (with a fourth prospect to be named later) just doesn’t make sense—unless Gonzo has already signed his name to a contract extension.

But, reportedly, the ballclub and Gonzalez were unable to come to terms on such an extension during the 30-hour (+/-) window they were granted.

Regardless, the Sox have finalized the deal with the Padres. Gone are Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Rey Fuentes…and, ultimately, another prospect. Arrived is Adrian Gonzalez…essentially on a one-year rental. It doesn’t make sense to me.

If this deal was pulled off by most other GM’s, I would say it is pretty stupid. But, in this instance we are talking about Theo Epstein, and the more I contemplate the trade the more I’m convinced he has something up his sleeve.

Last year, the club and Josh Beckett agreed to a contract extension during February, but withheld formally announcing the agreement until after Opening Day so the club (read: owners) could save millions of dollars in luxury tax payments.

It is not the way the luxury tax system was designed to work, but the ever-shrewed Epstein found a loophole that allowed him to keep both Beckett AND has bosses happy. It was a nifty trick.

Could that be what is going on here? Would the Red Sox have sent four prospects to San Diego if they didn’t already have a deal in place with Gonzalez? Could it be that today’s failure is just a ruse, designed to allow the organization additional financial flexibility as it navigates through the remaining pool of free agents this winter?

“Signing” Gonzalez a-f-t-e-r Opening Day might save the club $five or $six million in luxury tax payments (as a second-time violator of the salary cap, the Sox would be required to pay a 30 percent tax on all salary in excess of the 2011 threshold).

That is money that could be used to sign Carl Crawford, or Scott Downs (or Brian Fuentes), or anyone else they may have designs on to repair their bullpen (RHP Jon Rauch?).

We aren’t privy to what transpires behind the closed doors along Yawkey Way. We don’t know what happened during today’s talks between Gonzalez, agent John Boggs and Red Sox officials, but finalizing this deal without an extension in place does not make a bit of sense. And based on Theo’s track record, it seems safe to assume there is more here than meets the eye.

Something smells fishy!

Thus, the conspiracy theories must be advanced. Is it possible an extension for Gonzalez is actually in place, and that he’s the 2011 version of Josh Beckett.

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When I saw the latest MLB news was that ex-Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth had signed with the Washington Nationals, I ran right to my computer to Google the truth.

To my utter disbelief, it was true. Werth signed with the Nationals for the next seven years and $126 million dollar paycheck.

Werth had many options as one of the coveted free agents this offseason, with teams like the Red Sox, Angeles and his own Phillies in the mix.

So, signing with the not-going-to-win Nationals was shocking—until you saw the price tag and remember he hired a new agent named Scott Boras.

Moving from the Phillies, who won the 2008 World Series and four straight NL East titles, to one that finished in last place in 2010 with a 69-93 record and has yet to have a winning record since 2003 makes absolutely no sense for three reasons.

1) Playing for the Nationals and your chances of even getting in playoff contention is slim. Hope rolling in dollar bills can make up for having to play everyday and losing consistently.

2) From the franchise’s prospective, it makes no sense to spend that money on a 31 year old that made $2.5 million in 2010.

What a way to piss off all the other teams the day before the Winter Meetings, especially Los Angeles Angels GM Tony Reagins, who must be ready to kill Boras and the Nationals, along with every other GM in baseball because prices just went up.

3) For Werth, a lesson will be learned because playing 162 games for a losing ball-club, who will have an empty park, is worth no amount of money. Werth was an All-Star as a Philly too. Remember that Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg is out for the entire 2011 season and that was the only time fans showed up.

This reeks of Scott Boras. Boras tends to get his players to go for the green instead of where they can utilize their skills. Yes, it usually means less of a payday, but gaining personal achievements to be a tad less rich is a no brainier.

Boras brainwashes his clients that the better deal pays more, as if the team that is showing Werth the money appreciates his value more.

It couldn’t be further from the truth, as Boras is looking for himself. Boras gets the bigger payday at what price because his job is done, it’s the player who has to weather the consequences.

Teams, like the Nationals, have to offer players, such as Werth, a reason to take such a professional step down and bring their talents to a losing team.

Werth lead the National League in 2010 with 46 doubles, 27 homers and 85 RBIs.

Guess that speaks volumes about Jayson Werth’s goals, as he is playing for a paycheck and it won’t be easy at all.

One person is going to reap the Boras benefits is free agent Carl Crawford, who is having a party as we speak.

Werth just made him a richer man and one that will get paid from a contending club like the Los Angeles Angels and don’t count out the New York Yankees either.

Werth is going to miss being a superhero in Philadelphia, playing in an always filled Citizens Bank Park but most of all he will miss being an athlete on a winning team.

As a Yankee fan, I was am happy that Werth is not a Red Sox or an Angel.

Now Jayson’s worth just became irrelevant in the world of baseball, which is a darn waste of a fun player that now no one will watch.

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My hometown is a small island known as New York City.

Numerous pro-sports teams bear the words New York on their jerseys.

Fans and players alike wear their respective team’s apparel with such pride.

No matter the number or name, or whether it’s game-green or pinstriped, they all represent the same special place.

This is why the last few weeks have been so tough, as the talk turned to obsession regarding New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter.

Jeter was the talk of the town, which is no easy feat in the Big Apple, and not necessarily something you want to go through.

It’s a city of ego, making jealousy an easy path to choose and Jeter isn’t so hard to envy.

With a resume consisting of professional athlete, Yankee captain, not hard on the eyes, easy-going, polite, five-time world champ and an endorsement list that rivals Michael Jordan—who named a sneaker in his honor—caused New Yorkers to get nasty.

Other than Jeter’s desperate need for an off-the-field stylist, try and find me a guy who wouldn’t want to be Derek Jeter for a day, because he is living the dream.

Looking back on Jeter’s contract negotiations, the emotions were not so jealously driven as much as I felt betrayed.

Baseball is a business, but the players are still people.

See, Jeter is not just a shortstop or a professional baseball player to most of us Yankee fans. This made it very personal for us.

If George Steinbrenner were still alive, I doubt he would have allowed any dirt to be kicked on the captain.

Darryl Strawberry reiterated this sentiment by stating:

“George would roll over in his grave if he knew the way they’re treating Jeter,” Strawberry told the New York Daily News.

“The Boss never would have let this happen. If the Boss was alive, there’s no question they’d pay Jeter. I got to know George personally, and I know how much he cared about his players. And Jeter was like a son to him. I’m telling you, this wouldn’t be happening.”

See, the New York Yankees are under a new regime for the first time since 1973.

Passing the torch to his sons Hank and Hal, it has become clear that the only similarity seems to be their last name.

Say what you want about “The Boss,” but no one can deny his determination to win and anything short of perfection just wasn’t good enough.

Many of Mr. Steinbrenner’s decisions were controversial, ridiculous and unreasonable at times because he was a baseball fan. That true passion would constantly supersede his decision making as an owner.

The sons seem to be disconnected from the actual love of the game.

The fact that Hank and Hal even left the door open for Jeter to wear another uniform was all the proof I needed.

The initial pitch of $45 million for three years is measured as generous when compared to baseball in its entirety.

Let’s not forget that this is the Yankees, who play in New York and they have always been a different kind of beast.

“The Boss” did not strive to be an average person and he surely never ran the Yankees with that sentiment.

As he once said:

“When it comes to hiring, number one for me is loyalty. I want a person who’s devoted to the task.”

Unfortunately, Mr. Steinbrenner no longer has a voice and I don’t think Yankee fans are used to baseball being purely about business. It is something only time can heal.

I guess New York never realized that “Our Boss” was first and foremost just another Yankees fan.

For now, I am just happy our captain is back.

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Well, first off, I haven’t seen any of the details of Jayson Werth’s brand spanking new $127M deal with the Washington Nationals. And I’m not about to say anything about the demise of baseball after another deal that is likely to be seen as a disaster.

In fact, I think there should be some kind of celebration! After all, while most average fans like me rightly consider ourselves much smarter than whatever general manager represents our favorite club, a deal like this only confirms what we already knew. I don’t know about you, but that’s a GREAT feeling!

Werth is going to be taking a lot of heat for this deal. Maybe not right away, but in 2012, when he’s hitting .249 with one home run at the All Star break and Stephen Strasburg is 5-7 with a 1.53 ERA after losing his third straight 1-0 decision, there might be some Nats fans starting to get just a tad impatient. 

If Werth turns out to be a dud like his former mates Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell, the market for Phillie outfielders who become free agents just might dry up.

We shouldn’t be blaming Werth or even everybody’s favorite agent Steve Boras for this. After all, nobody (as far as I know) was holding a gun to anybody’s head.

Really, the worst part of this deal is that the Nationals have not only tied their future to one player, but they have basically crippled their organization as far as making other improvements to the team.

Barring disaster, in a few years they will have over $50 million a year invested in three players (Werth, Strasburg, and Bryce Harper) and will have to round out their roster by filling it out with a bunch of castoffs and misfits (I know that worked for one team this year, but there’s a reason the term “castoffs and misfits” doesn’t describe most World Champions).

Bottom line is, like the Rockies on the heels of their massive deal for Troy Tulowitzki, the Nationals will have very little flexibility in the next several years. Like our current World Champion San Francisco Giants, it might well take four to five years after their big mega deal expires before they can become competitive again.

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In a shocking move, Jayson Werth has signed a seven-year deal with the last place Washington Nationals, snubbing higher-profile teams like the Red Sox. 

After losing Adam Dunn to the White Sox and star rookie pitcher Stephen Strasburg to Tommy John surgery, the Nats needed a seat-filler.  Attendance in DC has been pathetic over the years due to a lack of success for the team and high ticket prices. 

The last two years, the Nats ranked 24th and 23rd place for attendance out of 30 teams.  The acquisition of Werth should produce a spike in season ticket plans, not to mention a spike in team batting average and runs scored.  The exact terms of the contract have not yet been disclosed, but it is in the area of $126 million dollars.

The real shock is that Werth chose to sign with a last-place team.  The Nats are trying to build a winner, but realistically, this will not happen overnight.  In fact, their biggest obstacle may be the Phillies who have won the division four-straight years now.  But Werth has his ring already so maybe winning is now lower on his list than money and stability.

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