Kuzul

There’s Always Next Year: Intro

With catcher arguably the most important position on the diamond, the Cubs seem to have found a solid foundation for the future—hopefully.

Geovany Soto proved that he certainly had the talent to repeat and even build upon his rookie campaign after that came into question in the 2009 season.

There is no doubt Soto can hit. The question for the upcoming season—and seasons beyond—is whether or not Soto can stay healthy. Catcher is no doubt the most physically taxing position to field, and the ability to stay healthy is always a crapshoot.

That said, Soto has run into injury problems of his own. He hurt his knee in August, and while he spent a short four days off the field, his ability to hit took a noticeable slide. Considering the pressure on the knees it takes from the catcher’s crouch, this could be a recurring problem. He also had season-ending arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder, but this should not be a problem in the future.

Besides the injuries that were dealt to the starting Cub catcher, Soto had a remarkable season at the plate. He hit for a .282 average on the year and improved his patience stats along the way, walking 16 percent of the time. He also showed his 2008 power wasn’t a fluke, as he hit for 17 home runs—five less than 2008, but with 176 less plate appearances, a result of Lou Piniella’s fascination with Koyie Hill.

Given increased playing time from new Cubs manager Mike Quade, look for Soto to continue improving his game with more and more major league experience (only two full years of ML service time).

Hill filled in quite a bit in Soto’s stead, as Piniella tried to incorporate him into the Cubs lineup, seeing him as a better receiver than Soto. The fact is that Hill was a huge detriment to the Cubs offense when he played. Hill hit for a terrible .214 batting average, and his .298 slugging percentage was a figure that reminded Cubs fans of Juan Pierre.

Striking out almost 30 percent of the time, Hill was just downright terrible at the plate. He only walked 15 times in 231 plate appearances, and three of those were intentional. The idea that Hill was just a Jason Kendall-type slap hitter is irrational. Hill hit for a below-average contact rate, and pitchers were not afraid to attack him, throwing an above-average number of first strikes.

Hill was essentially a replacement player, meaning you could find equal value out of the position from a typical Triple-A catcher.

Hill’s arbitration clock has hit three years, meaning that the Cubs may just decide to non-tender him and not give him a pay raise, meaning that they will simply cut ties with him without any penalty to the franchise.

Wellington Castillo would provide an ample backup if the Cubs were to non-tender Hill, as he showed he can essentially provide the same production at a cheaper cost.

Castillo has showed flashes of power in his minor league career and even at the major league level this past summer, smashing five extra base hits in 20 at-bats. His main fault at the plate is a glaring lack of patience, as he walked only 7.7 percent of the time this past summer between Triple-A Iowa and a short showing with the Major League club.

I think Castillo can provide a more than serviceable backup to Geovany Soto and a viable replacement option for Koyie Hill.

This article was featured on TheUnfortunateCubsFan.com

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It has been a quick and decisive fall from grace for Pittsburgh Pirates catcher/outfielder Ryan Doumit. In 2008, Doumit looked like a future superstar. He hit .318/.357/.501, and was worth 3.6 WAR despite poor defense behind home plate. That winter, the Pirates signed Doumit to a three-year contract with club options for 2012-13. The future looked bright.

It has not been so. Doumit struggled to stay healthy in 2009, playing in only 75 games. He has also run into injury problems this season, and the Pirates moved decisively in another direction when they traded for Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder in July. Snyder has displaced Doumit to the outfield.

Doumit has played mostly right field since, and has been somewhat better there with the glove. His bat, which faltered badly as he tried to play through pain in 2009, has also come around. Doumit’s power has deserted him somewhat, but but his nine percent walk rate is a career-high.

Unfortunately for Doumit, Snyder is now locked in as the team’s starting backstop—his $5.75-million salary makes him the most expensive prospective 2011 Pirate. Garrett Jones seems ticketed for a return to right field, leaving Doumit as the odd man out.

Not wanting to fork over the $5.2 million they owe Doumit for next season, Pittsburgh long ago began shopping its switch-hitting catcher. Given the lean years Doumit has had since 2008, though, there will be relatively few suitors.

One team that might have interest, however, is the Chicago Cubs. Like Pittsburgh, the Cubs will pursue a rebuilding model in 2011 (whether they like it or not). Unlike Pittsburgh, however, Chicago has money to spend as GM Jim Hendry tries to shore up an offensive squad that lacks depth. Doumit could solve some of that.

As a switch-hitter, Doumit could act as the right-handed half of a right-field platoon with Kosuke Fukudome and/or Tyler Colvin. Because he bats substantially better as a left-handed hitter, he could also help out with occasional spot starts for catcher Geovany Soto against tough right-handed hurlers, and even play some first base if Hendry is unable to acquire an impact player at one of the two corner infield positions.

To build a worthwhile deal for Pittsburgh, Hendry could send one mid-level pitching prospect (a major league-ready arm like Justin Berg would most appeal to the Pirates), and either Jeff Baker or Darwin Barney to the Bucs.

Baker is a likely non-tender candidate this winter, and is therefore expendable to the Cubs. As a Pirate, he could platoon with Jones in right field or back-up both Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez on the infield. Baker rakes against left-handed pitching, and is a better fielder at second and third base than the Pirates’ incumbents.

For Hendry to part with Barney, who would pose a real challenge to former Cub Ronny Cedeno at shortstop in Pittsburgh, the Cubs would need to evaluate their farm system and determine that one of their more advanced infield prospects (Tony Thomas, Marquez Smith, and Josh Vitters are the sensible candidates) are ready for big-league time off the bench. Otherwise, Barney will be needed to play second base, and back-up Starlin Castro at shortstop.

Doumit would not be cheap, given his prospective role on the Cubs, but could make a positive contribution and keep the team in games with impact batting off the bench. Only time will tell whether Hendry has any room in his budget for such an addition, but it would probably benefit the Cubs to look into it.

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There has been a lot of news as of late regarding players being shut down for the rest of the season (and others who we aren’t quite sure about). 

Let’s take a look at a few of the names that influence fantasy owners.

Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

Shoulder surgery brought his renaissance campaign to a bitter conclusion as he hit .280 with 17 HRs, 53 RBI, and 47 runs on the year.

He is likely going to be replaced in the lineup by Koyie Hill, who doesn’t offer much upside for fantasy owners, even those in two-catcher formats. 

Soto should be fine for spring training and should be a starting option at a weak position entering the season.

Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

He has two fractured ribs, but if he can endure the pain, he can play through the injury. It’s actually hard to imagine him not getting into a game before the season comes to an end, as he hasn’t played since September 4 and the team is going to want him ready for the postseason. 

Going through that lengthy of a layoff and then being thrust back into the biggest stage would be awfully difficult. Still, it’s hard for fantasy owners to trust him at this point. 

It’s a big loss with fantasy championships on the line, but just stash him on your bench.

Tyler Colvin, Chicago Cubs

He suffered an injury after being hit in the chest with a broken bat. 

He put up a surprisingly strong rookie campaign, hitting .254 with 20 HRs, 56 RBI, 60 runs and six SBs.

You should be able to find someone on the waiver wire, but he will certainly have potential value next season in a five-outfielder format.

Coco Crisp, Oakland Athletics

He suffered a broken pinkie; just the latest in what feels like a never-ending list of injuries. 

He’ll likely miss the remainder of the season, putting a kink in the plans of owners trying to make a run in stolen bases.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics

He has soreness in his elbow and will be meeting with Dr. James Andrews to get checked out. 

That’s never a good sign, but for now owners need to simply hope that there isn’t a major problem and he is able to be ready for 2011. Unfortunately, 2010 seems like a lost cause. 

For those desperate for saves, Michael Wuertz and Craig Breslow are the most likely candidates to replace him.

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox

He was pulled from his last start with tightness in his shoulder and now buried in the AL Central race, the White Sox really have no reason to push him. 

It’s unlikely he makes another start so look for another option to fill out your staff.

What are your thoughts on these players?

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s early 2011 Rankings:

• Catchers  
• First Basemen 
• Second Basemen 
• Shortstops 
• Third Basemen 
• Outfielders 
  
• Closers 

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Chicago Cubs catcher Geovany Soto will have season-ending surgery on his right shoulder, according to MLB.com. Soto, 27, was baseball’s best offensive catcher when healthy this year, and will be ready for spring training nest February. 

During the team’s final two weeks, however, backup Koyie Hill will see the bulk of the playing time, according to Cubs manager Mike Quade. Here enters the controversy.

Hill, 31, has been predictably abysmal this season. His somewhat overblown defensive prowess has never been enough to offset his offensive helplessness: Over the past two seasons, only two players (well-known stinkers Jeff Mathis and Willy Taveras) have amassed 450 or more plate appearances while hitting worse than Hill. 

In 2010, Hill’s numbers stand at .223/.251/.307. He has only one home run, and has struck out roughly eight times as often as he has walked.

Hill gained his role on the team somewhat strangely, by stepping into the team’s catching vacuum in 2007 and (essentially) getting very lucky. The team went 17-8 in Hill’s 25 starts that season, en route to a playoff berth. Thereafter, Hill gained the confidence of both Cubs manager Lou Piniella and the team’s front office.

It appears that Hill also has won over interim skipper Quade, but the real verdict will be revealed when the team breaks camp under a new regime next spring: By one or another mechanism, Hill must be released by the team this winter.

Aside from the fact that Hill, already arbitration eligible in 2010, could make more than $1 million next season, the Cubs need to take a more serious look at their top catching prospects.

Welington Castillo, 23, is a hulking right-handed hitter whom managerial front-runner Ryne Sandberg managed for each of the past three seasons. This year, Castillo has reached the big leagues, and has two doubles and a home run in just 12 plate appearances. 

Whether Castillo—whose only real tools are his offensive power and arm behind the plate—will be a long-term success as a major-league regular remains to be seen. After he posted a .498 slugging average at Triple-A Iowa this season, however, Castillo is clearly ready for the opportunity to play behind Soto.

To prove that readiness, however, Castillo will need a chance to show his stuff over the Cubs’ remaining 13 games. Quade‘s Q-rating with GM Jim Hendry may rise slightly if he continues to play Hill, but the Cubs will be in serious trouble again next season if Hill returns.

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Geovany Soto made a solid statement his 2008 rookie season, slugging his way to a .371 wOBA, third among Major League catchers (Brian McCann and Joe Mauer).

He also tied for the Major League lead among catchers with 23 home runs.

Soto followed his impressive rookie campaign with a pretty severe sophomore slump, much to the chagrin of Cubs fans and potential fantasy owners predicting him to repeat or build upon his first season. 

Soto hit for a mere .310 wOBA in his second season in the bigs and was hit with the recoil of working 141 games behind the plate his rookie year; he was hurt for a total of 37 days, including 31 days for an oblique strain.

The two seasons represented polar opposites of what you could expect from Soto. In 2008 his .219 Isolated Power Index (.150 average) was expected to be an absurd number from a catcher who spent hardly any time as a top prospect, and his .332 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was seen as another number that was due for regression.

Meanwhile, in 2009 his .246 BABIP was seen as a fluke compared to his minor league numbers, while increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate.

This sentiment was shared by FanGraphs’ R.J. Anderson: “part of this is obviously regression and the other part is that he’s likely not a .371 wOBA hitter. The good news is, the answer is somewhere in between.”

Well, as it turns out, the answer wasn’t somewhere in between. This season, Soto continued to elevate his walk rate and make the most of his at-bats, specifically in working his way to hitter’s counts.

In 2010, Soto has been hitting for a .398 wOBA, tops among Major League catchers with 300 plate appearances. Fueling that number has been his improved power (.231 ISO) and an obscene .401 on-base percentage (.327 average).

So what’s the difference been between the three seasons where Soto has enjoyed polarizing performances?

The main support to Soto’s successes is very clear: It’s been his ability to hit the fastball.

In 2008, Soto hit fastballs for 16.9 runs above average (RAA). His second season, in which he had his sophomore slump, he hit fastballs again for an above average number—3.9—although this drop in production against the heater led to an increased vulnerability to sliders (-3.5 to -11.2 RAA) and curveballs (3.4 to -2.1 RAA).

This season, Soto has rediscovered his ability to hit the fastball, hammering them to a 20.7 RAA mark, best among Major League catchers; his off-speed production thus improved accordingly.

What is to blame for the dip in production following his Rookie of the Year campaign? It would be easy to say that his oblique issues were the cause of this, although Soto has been injured this season as well.

It remains to be seen if Soto will maintain the successes he enjoyed in 2008 and 2010 or regress to somewhere “in between” that production or the numbers he put up in 2008.

This article was also featured at TheUnfortunateCubsFan.com

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In MLB, a sophomore slump, also refer to as sophomore jinx, is identified when a player is not able to live up to the standards set by their rookie season. 

Reasons to blame for the “slump” may be injury or lack of adjustments.

Pitchers seem to be more likely to regress because of fatigue. The innings pitched in their rookie season may have dramatically surpassed the prior season; think of the “Verducci Effect”.

A young hitter will have to succeed by making adjustments. As the league sees the player, more videos and scouting reports will be available. Success will be determined on how fast the hitter adjusts to the new pitches being thrown and the location.

But is this term overused by many or is this cliche warranted?

Are players susceptible to this “jinx?

To answer these questions, I reviewed the second year seasons of the top 90 rookies to enter the Major Leagues since 1995.

The number of players identified to have struggle in their season was 20 (or 22%). Approximately 50 players had similar seasons as their rookie campaign with the remaining 20 surpassing their first year totals.

Surprisingly the split was almost even between hitters and pitchers.

The 11 pitchers identified were:

1. Livan Hernandez (1998)

2. Jason Dickson (1998)

3. Kerry Wood (1999)

4. Rolando Arroyo (1999)

5. Jeff Zimmerman (2000)

6. Rick Ankiel (2001)

7. Rodrigo Lopez (2003)

8. Shingo Takatsu (2005)

9. Josh Johnson (2007)

10. JA Happ (2010)

11. Rick Porcello (2010)

What Was Identified:

Wood, Ankiel, Johnson, and Happ were injured in their second season. Probably due to being overused.

Josh Johnson is the only pitcher to fully bounce back to become an All-Star.

The nine hitters to make the list were:

1. Quilvio Veras (1996)

2. Todd Hollandsworth (1997)

3. Jose Cruz Jr (1998)

4. Travis Lee (1999)

5. Warren Morris (2000)

6. Bobby Crosby (2005)

7. Troy Tulowitzki (2008)

8. Geovany Soto (2009)

9. Chris Coghlan (2010)

What Was Identified:

Hollandsworth, Crosby, Soto, and Coghlan join Kerry Wood as the ROY winners to make this list.

As basically all bounced back to have productive years, Morris is identified as a “One Hit Wonder”. He is the one player who didn’t. Will Coghlan, Happ and Porcello join Morris.

Tulowitzki has bounced from his 2008 season to become the best shortstop in baseball.

The results of this review proves that an average of one top rookie suffers the “jinx”. So it proves that the label “sophomore slumps” may be a cliche, but cliches exist for a reason. 

The question that everyone should be asking, especially fantasy baseball owners, who will suffer the “slump” next year out this year’s rookie crop?

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With the Mets having lost the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, they still are in need of another starting pitcher. Losing the last two games to the Braves and falling to five games out of first place and two back in the wild card race have made this need even more obvious.

Names that have recently come up in connection to the Mets include Ted Lilly, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, and Dan Haren. However, all of these players come at a price.

A popular name that is being thrown around as a player who the Mets would need to include in a deal is Josh Thole. At just age 22, Thole was able to have success in his short stint in the Major Leagues last season.

After starting the season in the minors, Thole has worked his way back up to the big league club. He struggled in the minors this year posting just a .267 batting average and a .353 on-base percentage. Many wondered if Thole had truly merited his promotion. Others wondered if it was in an attempt to showcase him for a trade. It appears to be the latter.

Thole would be a key piece in a deal for any of the aforementioned pitchers. He would have different value to each team.

The Cubs appear to have no need for Thole, yet they have requested that he be included in a deal for Ted Lilly. This speaks volumes about the confidence the Cubs have in Geovany Soto. Thole would…(to read the rest of the article click on the link below)

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As the Chicago Cubs—though still premature—close in on their first losing season season since 2006, one thing may be able to relinquish an utterly disappointing season.

Currently, numerous mock-draft web sites have the Cubs taking yet another pitching prospect, ranging from Alex Wimmers and Asher Wojciechowski, to Stetson Allie and Drew Pomeranz.

As seen with Chicago pitcher-prospects Jeff Samardizija and Jay Jackson, developement of young pitchers can be time consuming, and possibly result in career minor league pitchers. 

So the question should be asked: Does the Chicago Cubs front office have the patience to wait for another mediocre hurler to earn his stripes? And the question can be simply answered with an emphatic “no.”

For Cubs fans looking for something to cheer about that doesn’t involve the Blackhawks in 2010, draft day may be a short term solution to their spring woes. 

As draft day approaches (round one begins at 7 p.m. ET on June 7) Jim Hendry and the Chicago Cubs’ executives need to find possibilities to trade up in the round from pick 16, to possibly snag catching phenom, Bryce Harper—no matter how far-fetched is may seem. 

The Washington Nationals have once again “won” the right to the first overall pick in the MLB First-Year Players Draft, and are on pace to draft Harper, who may surpass former first-overall pick, and National, Stephen Strasburg as the highest paid rookie. 

According to Cbssports.com, however, Washington—who ranks 23rd in team payroll this season—may not be able to afford yet another blockbuster player with their $61 million budget. 

The best option for the Cubs and the Nationals, may be to make a deal on Tuesday.

Derrek Lee is currently the leader in Chicago Cubs trade rumors around the organization, and would be a good fit for the Nationals, who depend on the un-dependable Adam Dunn at first base.

Along with Geovany Soto (.254 batting average with a .405 slugging percentage), Washington could have a set of experience National League veterans to anchor their already youthful squad.

Though the Cubs’ chances of landing Harper are a stretch at best, Chicago needs to trade up from their current spot to capitalize on a rather deep amateur draft.

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