Kuzul

With only one real big signing remaining on Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous’ agenda before the season starts—Jose Bautista, the Jays roster looks to be almost set heading into spring training.

Spring Training for the Blue Jays will be used to figure out who will be that long-awaited fifth starter for the Jays. Names being mentioned already include Jesse Litsch, Marc Rzepcynski, Zack Stewart and even Scott Richmond to fill the void left by Shaun Marcum, who was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in the year for Canadian second baseman, and top 50 MLB prospect Brett Lawrie.

Another use for Spring Training will be to figure out who the team’s closer come opening day will be. Again, a fistful of names are on the tryout list which include Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor and the recently-signed Octavio Dotel.

Again, it will be anyone’s guess who will win the role out of Spring Training, but experts peg Francisco with the slight edge right now.

Manager Jon Farrell will also use the time to round out the remaining two or three bench spots that should remain before the season begins. Already pegged for bench positions appear to be back-up catcher Jose Molina, utility-man John MacDonald and fourth outfielder Juan Rivera.

If the Jays decide to keep eight bullpen pitchers, they will not need another bench player to round out the roster. However, if they choose to only keep seven, they will need an extra bench player. Guys who come to mind here include Mike McCoy, Corey Patterson and Darin Mastroianni.

I doubt the Jays would keep Mastroianni and have him rot on the bench, so the only two likely guys would be McCoy and Patterson. To bring Patterson in, the Jays would need to sign him to a major-league contract and demote someone off their 40-man roster. So with that said, McCoy could have the inside track there.

Enough with the background information and onto more important things.

With the Jays shedding some payroll, they have their books cleared up to re-sign home run champ Jose Bautista to a long-term contract. Even taking that money into account, the Jays still have one of the smaller payrolls in baseball.

The Jays will need to make a decision. Do we compete this year or next? Judging by the way the other Toronto sports major franchises are failing miserably, in my opinion, it would be in the Jays best financial interest to spend money now and make their team a contender.

With the Raptors and Leafs seasons heading down the porcelain throne, the Blue Jays could really see a spike in ticket sales and merchandise if they are willing to put a winner out there today.

A great AL team for the Jays to look at are the Cleveland Indians.

Rumors are swirling about all three of these players I will be listing, and personally, all three would be great fits for the Jays.

RF Shin Shoo Choo

Choo is one of those quiet, yet extremely effective right fielders nobody ever hears about, but should. Last season he hit .300 with 22 HR and 90 RBI, along with swiping 20 bags. I really can’t think of anyone who had a quieter 20/20 season than Choo, maybe across Ohio in Cincinnati, where Drew Stubbs hit 20 HR and swiped 30 bags.

Choo is extremely durable and dependable, and right now appears to be hesitating on signing an extension with the Tribe.

If the Jays are unable to sign Bautista, do they go after Choo? Or even if they do sign Bautista, do they move him to third and try and bring in Choo?

Choo is owed $3.95 million this season, and is still arbitration eligible for the next two offseasons. Personally, he’s right down the Jays’ alley in terms of relatively young and controllable for the next few years. 

What will they be looking for?

Likely two or three really good prospects in return for Choo.

SP Fausto Carmona

If the Jays are not confident in their No. 5 starter, a name being bandied about in trade rumors lately has been Indians ace Fausto Carmona. Last season saw Carmona resurrect his career after a few brutal seasons.

Carmona started 33 games, going 13-14 on a dismal team. In 210 innings pitched, he allowed 203 hits, 88  earned runs, 124 strikeouts, but sadly 72 walks.

Still though, his control was much better last season, as he walked only two more batters than the last two seasons, where he walked 70 batters. Even better, he only pitched 125 innings in each of those seasons, so that’s marked improvement for Carmona.

Last season in limited action against the AL East, he held his own going 4-3 in 52.2 innings pitched allowing 54 hits, 23 ER, good for roughly a 3.93 earned run average. Today, anything below 4.00 is great to have.

Under the tutelage of John Farrell and Bruce Walton, Carmona could have a breakout season.

The major downside however is that he’s owed $ 6.288 million this season, and $7, $9 and $12 million the next three seasons afterwords. So its really a financial burden trying to get him, but the Jays have plenty of room to expand their payroll.

What will they be looking for?

Likely two cheaper pitching prospects in return for Carmona. Maybe Chad Jenkins and Henderson Alvarez. Personally that’s probably overpaying on he part of the Jays.

CF Grady Sizemore

Injuries have plagued Sizemore for almost two seasons, and his trade value has taken a severe hit on the Indians. Once thought of as one of the best five tool players in the game, the injuries Sizemore that sustained lately has really derailed what looked to be a very promising career.

I am not saying his career is over or he’s washed up, but with injury concerns and a fairly high salary, the Indians, if they are fielding offers, would likely have to lower their asking value for the time being.

Best strategy for them would be to hold onto Grady and hope he returns to his 2008 form in which he hit .268 and belted 33 homers and drove 90 runners at the top of Cleveland’s lineup. He also swiped 38 bases that year.

But who knows, the Jays could come in with a wonderful offer and the Indians accept.

What will they be looking for?

Personally it will likely take three to four top 25 organizational prospects to acquire Grady. A package including Jake Marisnick, Zack Stewart, Chad Jenkins and Kellen Sweeney could be enough to sway the Tribe to deal Grady.

Feel free to comment.

Until next time…

–Brad

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Last year, Manny Acta made a splash by dropping Grady Sizemore to second in the batting order.  This year, he’s considering moving him back to leadoff.  Is either the right move?  And how should the rest of the lineup look?

The Book, one of the best sabermetric books you can find, did extensive work on lineup construction.  Their main conclusion was that lineup order didn’t matter too much, but it can be optimized for marginal gains.  The Book‘s findings are summarized very well in this Beyond the Boxscore post.

To get the stats for Cleveland’s upcoming season, I used the Cairo Projections, which are described (and available for download) here.  The nice thing about version 0.5 of this years Cairos is that they include lefty/righty splits.  It uses wOBA, which is described in detail in the new Frangraphs library. As you can see, wOBA is scaled to be comparable to batting average, with a .321 wOBA being the league average in 2010.

First, here’s how the Indians lineup should look against lefties.  I took the top nine players in terms of wOBA against lefties, and fortunately things worked out nicely in the field.

The glaring omission, of course, is Grady Sizemore.  Cairo projects Sizemore to have a wOBA of only .309 against lefties.  But if you insist on playing him (both in the name of fan interest, and so Kearns doesn’t have to play center), you can remove Hafner from the lineup, DH Duncan, and move Donald up to eighth with Grady batting ninth.

Some other items of note:

• Everyone in this lineup is projected to hit above a .321 wOBA.  That’s nice, but .321 was the average in 2010 against all pitchers.  The average against lefties in 2011 may be higher or lower.
• Indians fans should be especially pleased to see such a nice number for Matt LaPorta, especially after his struggles at the plate these past few years.
• LaPorta and Santana have very similar numbers, but Santana has a slight edge in power, giving him the fourth spot over LaPorta.  While Choo also has very good power, his on base percentage is just too good to put anywhere but first.

Now, the lineup against righthanders.  Unfortunately I wasn’t able to take just the best nine hitters this time.  Michael Brantley and Travis Buck both rated ahead of Jack Hannahan.  Brantley, Buck, and Duncan all rated ahead of Nix and Donald as well.  But somebody has to play second and third base.

If you don’t think Jack Hannahan is going to break camp with the Tribe, feel free to move Nix up a spot in the order and plug Jason Donald’s .303 wOBA into the nine hole.

Notes on this lineup:

• Choo blew everyone away in both on base percentage and slugging.  But I chose to hit him leadoff, just to give our best hitter as many at bats as possible.
• Believe it or not, Sizemore is expected to have better slugging numbers than Santana, and Santana better on base numbers than Sizemore.  That’s why Grady is hitting fourth and Carlos second.
• Cabrera, Nix, and Hannahan/Donald will need to be good with the glove to make up for their below-average projections.  Other than that, though, this isn’t too bad a lineup.

Finally, for those interested, here are the numbers for a few key players who failed to crack either lineup:

This article originally appeared on Kanka’s Sports Page

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As good as he is, Evan Longoria is not single-handedly winning your fantasy baseball league for you. Why? Because most of the owners in your leagues are getting fairly off-setting numbers out of their first round picks.

However, the players discussed here could win you that championship, because while everyone is getting minimal value from their late-round picks, you could be getting early-round numbers.

This doesn’t mean you should reach for them in the rounds where their value might end up, but you should target them late, and enjoy the results. (All projected draft rounds are in a 12-team standard snake draft)

Begin Slideshow

It happens every year. One team has unreasonably high expectations for their team, signs a couple of free agents, and when they fail to meet their goals, they become sellers at the trade deadline.

Need an example? How about last year’s Seattle Mariners. In theory, Cliff Lee would have been great if they had an offense. However, their lack of success forced them to trade Lee to the Rangers, a team better suited for Lee.

On the other side, there are always buyers at the trade deadline. Maybe a team doesn’t expect to be in playoff contention in July, however now that they are, they need one more player to piece together the puzzle and put them over the edge.

A good example is the Milwaukee Brewers of 2008. It was their acquisition of CC Sabathia that helped them reach the playoffs through the wild card. 

Another common way for players to switch teams midseason is by under performing. By August, if a team is not content with the way one of their players is playing, they have to option to put him on waivers. 

An example of this is the Alex Rios scenario of 2009. The Blue Jays, unhappy with Rios, placed Rios on waivers, where the White Sox picked him up. His .199 batting average in 2009 with the White Sox probably made the Blue Jays happy they let him go.

There are many other reasons that a player is moved during the season—  these are just the main ones. In this article, I will speculate as to which players I believe will be moved in 2011.

Begin Slideshow

Its no secret that the Cleveland Indians have some work ahead of them in the rebuilding process. But with such a deep farm system and many former All-Stars being dealt, Tribe fans are anxious to see something come from the plethora of young talent the Indians are supposed to have.

The Minnesota Twins have become more of a large-market team with a new stadium and the ability to keep their talent around, while the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox have spent a lot of money in the offseason to make a once seemingly winnable AL Central a very formidable one. 

Heck, even the Royals made a splash by dealing Zack Greinke for a good haul of prospects to add to their strong farm system. Yet the Tribe has decided to rely on in house options to start contending, but time is running out.

There are young players such as Carlos Santana with flashes of greatness in 2010, but there are many more players in Cleveland, young and old, who need to have good years in 2011 to try and prove the theory wrong that God hates Cleveland.

Begin Slideshow

Entering his final year of salary arbitration, Jonathan Papelbon will likely cash in on a big pay day following the 2011 season. 

However, with a declining skill set and Daniel Bard as the closer of the future, there is next to no chance he signs a long term deal with the Boston Red Sox.

Papelbon is due to make roughly $11 million for the coming season.

The presence of Bard and the acquisition of Bobby Jenks makes the possibility that Papelbon does not finish the year with the Red Sox all the more likely.

Without further delay here are 10 Jonathan Papelbon trades that make sense for the Boston Red Sox.

Begin Slideshow

As sportswriter Bill Simmons would put it, the Indians are in life or death territory, as in whenever an Indians fan dies, you count back to see if they got to be alive during the last World Series win. Since that last win came in 1948, there are far too many Indians fans dying before they get a chance to see their team on top.

With that in mind, the Cleveland Indians need to be doing everything possible to win the World Series. Rebuilding is a necessary part of this, but the current Indians roster is littered with players that aren’t going to help the Indians get back on top.

Only Chicago Cubs fans have suffered longer than Indians fans. To prevent this suffering from going on any longer, the Indians need to go into this rebuilding process 100 percent, make some bold moves and get the fans what they want, a World Series.

Note: Projections for players came from Baseball-Reference.com’s similarity scores. Similarity scores compare a player’s statistics to all other MLB players from all time, allowing us to see what they will likely become. This is not an exact science, but it is a projection. Just because a player is not projected to do well does not mean they can defy the projection, but it is unlikely. This list is based off of these assumptions, which could be wrong, but likely are right.

Begin Slideshow

As of this moment, right here, the 2013 Yankees already have in the neighborhood of 109 million dollars spent. That’s with arbitration, or new contracts. 109 million…for a season 3 years away.

What is that team going to look like? Is it going to be as old and brittle as some forecast? Well, maybe. Let’s take a guess at what the lineup and rotation might look like by then.

In The Field

1B: Mark Teixeira is penned in here for the foreseeable future.

2013: 22.5 million, 33 years old in 2013.

2B: Robinson Cano, barring injury or severe drop in play, will be here in 2013 on a new contract.

2013: New contract would bring in say, rough guess, 18 million per. 30 years old in 2013.

SS: Eduardo Nunez. Anyway, that is the plan. Scouts say he definitely has the potential; reminds some of Cano a bit when he was that age. By 2013, hopefully, he will mature and take the next step.

2013: Rookie-type contract. Yanks save money here. Will turn 26 in 2013 season.

3B: Derek Jeter. Think Jeter was mad with the contract negotiations? Wait until they move him to 3rd.

2013: 17 million. Will turn 39 in 2013 season.

LF: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s current contract is up in 2012, and if healthy and has a bounce-back season, he will demand too much money for the Indians to resign him. Also, have a feeling the Yankees will trade Swisher at some point, and won’t resign Granderson and will need some outfielders. Therefore, Yankees trade for Sizemore. Sizemore will turn 31 in 2013 and the Yankes will resign him before he becomes a free agent.

2013: 31. Contract: If he’s healthy, say 14 million or so.

CF: Brett Gardner. Mr. Scrappy himself is the Yankees lead-off hitter and defensive stalwart.

Turns 30 in 2013. Yankees sign him to friendly contract of about 10 million per.

RF: Jesus Montero. Too big behind the plate and with other catching prospects coming, Montero is placed in the right field spot. Will Gardner next to him and the veteran Sizemore in left, the Yankees feel Montero can’t do too much damage.

Montero will be 23 in 2013 and still be on a very friendly rookie contract.

C: Figure a mix of Gary Sanchez—by accounts the Yankees top all-around catching prospect—and a journeyman, Kelly Shoppach, for instance, to take some of the days from the rookie and tutor him. Shoppach will make about 5 mil.

DH: Alex Rodriguez. Too steroid-damaged to play the field anymore, A-Rod clogs up the DH role until 2017.

Turns 38 in 2013 and earns 28 million.

Rotation

CC Sabathia will turn 33 in 2013 and will earn 23 million.

Cliff Lee will turn 35 during the 2013 season and will earn about 25 million.

A.J. Burnett will be 36 in 2013 and earn 16.5 million.

Phil Hughes will be 27 in 2013 and will be signed by the Yankees to a deal near 10 million.

Dellin Betances will be 25 in 2013 and under a rookie contract.

The Yankees will try commit a panic-trade for another pitcher at some point. Those trades usually do not work out, but if A.J. Burnett pitches his way out of the rotation (a distinct possibility), figure a Jason Marquis-type trade to try to fill in the gaping hole Burnett leaves. Betances figures to be the “See, we’re trying out rookies” pitcher of 2013.

Bullpen

The first season without Mariano Rivera. Panic! The Yankees sign a couple of relief guys to help out—figure Mike Gonzalez and Jonathon Broxton (or similar dudes) to say 18 million for them total. Another rookie, (the Yankees need them to offset the leviathan-type contracts) Manny Banuelos will get a shot in the pen as a lefty, along with the next Joba Chamberlain, “can we get anything out him?” guy—Andrew Brackman. Adam Warren will be a pen guy as well, long reliever. A couple of other journeymen fill out the pen.

Notable Guys Traded/Busts. Nick Swisher. Austin Romine. Joba Chamberlain. Graham Stoneburner. Brandon Laird. Slade Heathcott. Adam Warren. J. R. Murphy. Cito Culver. Ivan Nova. David Adams. Hector Noesi.

Anyway, the above team costs in the ballpark of 210 million and that doesn’t include a bench or any substantive free agent signings between now and 2013 (except of course, Cliff Lee). It also doesn’t include the panic rental trades (the Berkman trade for example). As with any speculation, it’s all educated guesswork. But its fun educated guesswork all to prove a point. And that point should be obvious: The Yankees in 2013 will be in hock to some players—especially the rotation—on the wrong side of 32—some way past 32. It’s coming, these debts, we all know it. The question is “What do we do about it?” The above was just my fun educated guess. What is yours?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The MLB offseason is already in full swing, and many top free agents have already been taken off the board.

So who’s left? And what players might be available for teams that don’t have the pocket change to go out and sign a free agent?

Begin the slideshow to see the top five players available to sign or trade for at each position.

Begin Slideshow

Miracles happen, especially in sports. 

After a decade of futility the Tampa Bay Rays stunned the baseball world by winning the AL pennant in 2008, the organization’s first ever winning season.

The following year the Mariners, a preseason footnote in the AL West, won 85 games under GM Jack Zduriencik’s inaugural season. 

This season fans hopped on the San Diego Padres’ bandwagon and watched the team battle, albeit successfully, for the NL West Division crown.

Every year, as if on cue, a team marches towards contention following a remarkably quick and unsuspected turnaround.  As baseball nears the season’s climatic end, one is left to wonder which team is prepared to go unnoticed and quietly slip on the proverbially glass slipper come next April?

The Cleveland Indians.

The Indians 2010 season was a disaster. The team struggled from the start and frustrations began to mount as the team quickly faded out of contention. 

Underperforming players struggled to right the ship, young players failed to adjust to the rigors of big league life, injuries forced role players into every day jobs and veteran players were traded to make room for promising prospects. 

However, there are reasons for hope at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, despite a dismal 69-93 record.    

Trevor Crowe was thrust into one of those aforementioned everyday roles after Grady Sizemore succumbed to injury.

Crowe, a former first round pick out of the University of Arizona, displayed grit and hustle, but provided little help.  In 479 plate appearances he hit .251/.302/.333, and cost the team 12 runs according UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). 

Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Crowe essentially cost the team one win over the course of the season. 

A healthy Grady Sizemore is expected for the 2011 season, but a productive Grady Sizemore is another question.

Sizemore, the team’s regular centerfielder, was one of baseball’s eminent budding young stars prior to the 2009.  He looked like he was on the edge of superstardom after ranking among the sport’s elite from 2006 to 2008.

Then the wheels fell off.

A disappointing 2009 was plagued by injuries, and the internet release of compromising photos in the offseason seemed to set the tone for this year. 

He often looked uncomfortable, and at times lost, in the batter’s box.  After hitting .211/.271/.289 in 33 games Sizemore eventually called it a lost season. 

It’s hard to predict which Sizemore will be patrolling centerfield in 2011, but remember only two seasons ago he posted a 7.1 WAR—essentially an eight game improvement over Trevor Crowe.

Injury also wrecked the season of Carlos Santana, one baseball’s top rookies.

Santana made his debut on June 11, and instantly became a much needed force in the middle of the Indians’ lineup. The team nearly played .500 (22-25) before a nasty collision at home plate ended his season. He hit .260/.401/.467 while the rest of the Tribe catchers hit .203/.279/.309 combined.

Santana’s offense and Lou Marson’s late inning defensive ability should quietly rank among the league’s best catching tandems in 2011.   

The team’s next biggest disappointments, outside of injury, were Matt LaPorta and Luis Valbuena.

LaPorta, considered the key piece in the Sabathia deal, hit .221/.306/.362, and earned a midseason demotion to Triple-A. 

It is still too early to toss him by the wayside with the likes of Jeremy Sowers and Michael Aubrey, but the front office’s patience has to be running thin. 

The former University of Florida alum has proven he can hit minor league pitching, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to take a step forward next year—considering how low he has set the bar. 

LaPorta may not be the impact bat the team thought he was, but any player who posts a career minor league line of .296/.390/.563 will have SOME positive major league value. 

Luis Valbuena, like LaPorta, earned an in-season demotion to the minor leagues.  Valbuena often looked like a black hole in the lineup and on the field. He hit .193/.273/.258 and cost the team almost seven runs on defense, according to UZR. His WAR total of -1.5 was among baseball’s worst. 

The emergence of Cord Phelps, Jared Goedert, Josh Rodriguez and Jason Kipnis will provide plenty of options, and upgrades, for Manny Acta to use next season at second and third bases. 

There is reason to believe in Cleveland baseball, again. The young pitching staff took a step forward after the All-Star break.

Fausto Carmona had his most productive season since the team’s magical run in 2007.  Justin Masterson was lights out for the final 5-7 weeks of the year, Carlos Carrasco started to capitalize on his vast potential and the farm system has some of the best bullpen arms in all of baseball. 

Hope runs eternal during spring training. Perhaps next spring the Indians will slip on the glass slipper and run all the way towards late season contention. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com