Welcome to the second installment of seven in this preseason breakdown of each MLB division. The first six articles will cover the divisions, and the seventh will predict the playoffs and major award winners. Each team will have its offseason moves broken down, one major strength and weakness identified, one X-factor selected and then their projected record for the 2011 season. The order of the slideshows will be from last to first in the division.
Day two brings us to the NL East.
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Here’s an early look at the N.L. only 2011 shortstop rankings.
1. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies: It’s really a toss-up between Tulo and HanRam. They are both five-category players. I prefer Tulo because of his ballpark and lineup.
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: Han-Ram is 1-A. He should post a higher SB total than Tulo, but fewer HRs and RBI. You can’t go wrong either way. I just fear that he won’t see as many good pitches without a strong supporting cast.
3. Jose Reyes, New York Mets: Reyes wasn’t the superstar he used to be, posting a .282-83-11-54-30 line, but that’s not the important part. He stayed healthy. A year later I expect him to take another step forward, especially if the Mets lineup featuring Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis can avoid the injury bug.
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies: You know the National League is deep at shortstop when the fourth-ranked SS could be No. 1 in the American League. J-Roll dealt with injuries last year, but I believe he still has what it takes to be an elite fantasy shortstop.
5. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks: Drew has four straight seasons with at least 60 RBI. He also hit .278 with 83 runs, 15 HR, and a career-high 10 SBs. He finished strong hitting .300 with 38 runs, 11 HR, 30 RBI, and 4 SB in 217 at-bats from August to October. The youngsters will press him for the top five, but for know it’s his spot to lose.
6. Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals: Desmond’s was a model of consistency as he went .255-31-6-36-8 in his 271 first half ABs and .283-28-4-29-9 in his 254 second half ABs. He’s clearly a cut below the top five, but remains a solid option this year.
7. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs: Castro is another youngster that posted a solid rookie season, as he hit .300. He only scored 53 runs in 125 games though, and was thrown out (eight) nearly as many times as he was successful (10) stealing bases.
8. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers: Furcal is great when he is in the lineup. He provides a spark for the Dodgers and his fantasy teams alike. Unfortunately, staying healthy is next to impossible for Furcal. Make sure you have a solid backup plan.
9. Juan Uribe, Los Angeles Dodgers: Uribe has 2B/3B/SS eligibility, which makes him a valuable option. He doesn’t score many runs or steal many bases, but he has decent pop and is a solid RBI guy.
10. Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves: Gonzalez hit 23 home runs last year, but struggled (.240-27-6-38-0) in 72 games with Atlanta. He’s not your ideal shortstop, but he can give you a boost in home runs and RBI.
2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings
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Spring Training starts up in less than a week and the upcoming baseball season should be a great one. The NL MVP is most prestigious individual award in National League.
The National League MVP is awarded annually to the player who has the most value to his respected team. Recent winners of the NL MVP include names such as Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, and other greats.
In follow-up of my AL list I have decided to make an NL version of the preseason prediction.
The consensus number one pick in nearly every draft you participate in or read about is Albert Pujols. And rightly so; the guy has been putting up monster numbers year in and year out for quite some time.
This is not going to be a post knocking Albert Pujols as the number one guy. This is going to be a post explaining why I don’t think it’s a one-man race for that top pick and why Hanley Ramirez should be in the discussion and considered if you have the first pick.
Last year was what many consider a down year for Hanley Ramirez and a slight bit disappointing. Let’s look at exactly what Hanley did in this down year:
.300 Batting Average
92 Runs Scored
21 Home Runs
76 Runs Batted In
32 Stolen Bases
.378 On-Base Percentage
.475 Slugging Percentage
Those aren’t bad numbers to have in a down year.
But I also realize they are not numbers indicative of a number one overall pick in fantasy baseball. However, even those numbers would have likely put Hanley in the top 10 to 15 among all players in terms of a standard “5×5” rotisserie league. And when people say he had a down year, it isn’t just an excuse; there are several indicators that point to a boost from last year in nearly all categories.
For starters, Hanley’s .300 batting average last year was his lowest since his 2006 rookie campaign. But his BABIP was .327, exactly 20 points below his career BABIP and the lowest total of his career. Considering his speed and natural ability, it’s not hard to think he could get his BABIP back to where it usually is and get his batting average closer to .320 than the .300 he had last year.
As far as the regressed power numbers, they are largely tied to the fact that he hit significantly fewer fly balls. This is why Hanley posted his second-highest HR/FB rate of his career despite hitting the fewest home runs since his rookie year. If Hanley can bring his fly ball percentage of 32.7 percent up to the 40 percent he achieved in the past, it should bring his home run totals back closer to 30 and put Hanley in line for another 30/30 season, which I am certain would not be his last.
Now that we have looked at what Hanley should be able to do this year, let’s talk about some of the reasons you would take him over Albert Pujols if you had the first pick in the draft.
There is no question that Pujols is the best player, but Hanley is arguably the most well-rounded player and hands down the best five-tool guy on your board. With his move to the middle of the order, Hanley is contributing runs batted in without losing too many stolen bases, and if the guys around him take a step forward this year, he could be in line for 90–100 RBI.
With that stat production, there is nowhere that Hanley cannot contribute in a standard “5×5” league. Pujols is in a league of his own, but there are a few guys who can come close to matching his across-the-board contributions; there is no one else that can do what Hanley Ramirez does.
You also have to consider the issue of position scarcity as well. If you have the first pick in the draft and you don’t take Hanley Ramirez you’re also going to miss out on Troy Tulowitzki. After him, you have a collection of question marks and guys you really don’t want to have to take at shortstop.
Meanwhile, you’re comparing that with first base, which is easily the deepest position there is. Who would you rather have with your first two picks: Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez and Prince Fielder? And if you don’t like Fielder you can also probably choose Kevin Youkilus in that second round based on early ADP’s.
Obviously, there is no rule saying you have to take a shortstop in the first two rounds. But the talent level after Hanley and Tulo falls off significantly, while it’s still possible to get a 30 HR, 100 RBI first baseman in the fifth round.
Am I saying Hanley should be the number one pick? Not necessarily—unless you are in a keeper league; bear in mind he is still just 27.
But I do think you have to consider him an option with the first pick of the draft and if you do take him, I won’t be the guy calling you crazy. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him considered the number one player overall in fantasy baseball at the end of the year.
So what do you think of Hanley at number one? Is it foolish to even consider someone other than Albert Pujols? Are you still hung up on Hanley’s “down year?” Let us know what you think.
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We are still a little over a year away from the Florida Marlins entering their new stadium; however, noteworthy is their recent trip which involved members of the Marlins brass (Jeffrey Loria and David Samson) and players Hanley Ramirez, John Buck, Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton who took the unofficial first batting practice at the new stadium while being on hand for the first seat installation.
Now it was just batting practice, but a few home runs throughout the process may have forecasted a potential flaw with the plans of the stadium. Of note: a few baseballs came close to leaving the stadium, specifically one hit by Mike Stanton which cleared the stadium by essentially shooting through the invisible glass panels in left field and exiting the building.
Even Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria felt worried his “Pitcher Park” would end up being something else, perhaps being a repeat of what happened to the Yankees in their first season at Yankee Stadium.
“Some of those fly balls—I’m not sure this is a pitcher’s ballpark anymore,” Loria said. “The building is gorgeous.”
Let’s examine the future home of the Marlins and current one for a second, shall we? Sun Life Stadium, while mostly considered a pitcher’s park is really a neutral park.
According to ESPN’s Park Factor, which measures a stadium’s ability to be a hitters paradise or a pitcher’s park, the Marlins’ Sun Life Stadium ranked 10th in runs scored but 24th in home runs per game with 0.822.
In terms of dimensions, the Marlins new stadium will be 10 feet further in left field (340 feet), 23 feet further in left center (384), 12 feet further in center (416 feet), 17 feet further in right center (392 feet), and 10 feet less in right field (335 feet).
Nevertheless, dimensions aren’t the full cause of a stadium’s ability to be hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. The Marlins haven’t truly played baseball in South Florida indoors, so only time will tell how playing indoors and outdoors in the stadium will effect playing conditions come 2012.
Last season the Minnesota Twins opened their new stadium, Target Field, and ranked last of all 30 Major league ballparks in home runs per game, with 0.641 per game. Target Field’s dimensions are a bit closer to home plate than the Marlins’ new ballpark, but again, only time will tell whether the Marlins’ new stadium is truly a hitter’s or pitchers paradise in South Beach.
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There isn’t much content online about auction drafts. I think that’s mostly because its more challenging and therefore less popular.
You can auto-draft (a.k.a. skip the draft) and end up with a very good team. Going into an auction, the best laid plans win.
While the auction never goes exactly as planned, the guy who does the best job at executing the plan will end up with the best team, at least out of the gate. There are many different strategies for auctions, and I cannot adequately explain them all, but here are a few simple rules to follow.
This is it, the Florida Marlins final season. After 2011, there will be no more baseball in Sun Life Stadium, no Major League baseball in Miami Gardens, no more empty stadiums or the perception of the team being known as second class citizens on welfare.
In 2011, the Florida Marlins have one last chance to win a championship before their big transformation.
A few weeks ago, Brian Cashman made headlines. He made a comment, stating that when Derek Jeter’s time at shortstop is over, he would be moving to center field. It’s almost unthinkable that the best shortstop the Yankees have ever seen might be vacating the position soon.
Even so, it’s not uncommon to see a move like this. For example, the legendary Mickey Mantle moved from center field to first base after years of abuse on his legs caught up to him.
Cal Ripken Jr., one of the most complete shortstops the game had ever seen, permanently moved to third base in 1997. However, perhaps the most famous move for a player was Babe Ruth moving from pitcher to power-hitting outfielder.
Jeter will not be mentioned among the Yankee greats who patrolled center field; he will be remembered for what he has done at short. It’s interesting, though, to speculate where some of the younger players in the MLB might end up as their careers progress.
Here now are 20 stars that might be on the move to different positions before their careers are over.
Note: This list is not ranked in terms of how big of a star each player is.
In our first debate, we take a look at the top two shortstops in fantasy baseball as both should be top 10 picks. However, Troy Tulowitzki’s strong finish in 2010 has struck a lot of discussion on whether the 26-year-old should dethrone perennial top-two selection Hanley Ramirez. Bryan and I discuss who you should draft first.
Bryan: Last season, Ramirez had an ADP of 2.4 in ESPN leagues. He was coming off a great 2009 season in which he batted .342/.410/.543 with 24 homers and 23 steals. Florida had finally bumped him back to third in the lineup, and he rewarded the Marlins with 106 RBI. We all expected more of the same in 2010, but Ramirez disappointed with sub-par RBI production. All players, except Albert Pujols, of course, hit speed bumps in their professional careers, and if 2010 is Ramirez’s speed bump—and his career numbers show us no reason to think it was anything other than that—then the most electric shortstop in the game will be the best fantasy option at the position once again.
George: While it’s clear that these two are tops among shortstops, Tulowitzki has one big advantage over his counterpart—home field. In his six-year career, Tulowitzki has batted .312/.383/.544 at Coors Field, and his home/road power splits (.213 ISO/.179 ISO) show that he hits for power no matter where he plays. In a year where a lot of hitters disappointed, Tulowitzki actually exceeded expectation despite missing a month with a broken wrist. And now that he is staying in Colorado through the 2020 season, he should continue to meet them for years to come.
Bryan: I’m with you on one point, George. If you’re fortunate enough to have one of these two shortstops on your roster, you already have a significant advantage over the rest of your league. No other position offers such a gap between the elite and the near-elite, and no matter how much you love Jose Reyes, Alexei Ramirez, Derek Jeter or any other shortstop, you’d be lying if you said anyone else was even in Hanley and Tulo’s class. However, with Tulowitzki’s spotty injury history (122 games last year and just 102 in 2008), I consider it far too big of a risk to go with one of baseball’s newest $100 million men. Give me Ramirez’s average 152 games per season every time.
George: Take a quick look at Tulo’s injury history and you’ll realize that they are fluke injuries that have no ill-effect on how he presently plays. In 2008, he had his worst offensive season as a pro while missing 42 games with a torn tendon in his left quadriceps and then 16 days after he gashed his hand open on a broken bat. He showed no lingering issues in 2009, where he enjoyed his best offensive season. Last year, Tulo fractured his wrist and missed 33 games, but after about a month his power returned and he hit 14 home runs in September. It’s safe to say that Tulo has no lingering injury issues that owners need to worry about come draft day.
Bryan: To say Tulo has no lingering injury issues might be a stretch, but point taken. Still, if consistency is your thing, you’ll be hard-pressed to find more consistently great numbers those put up by Ramirez. In 2007, 2008 and 2009 he had OPSs of .948, .940 and .953, respectively, he’s stolen between 27 and 35 bases in each of the last three seasons, he’s batted at least .300 in four straight seasons, his K:BB ratio has remained stable and his strikeout rate in 2010 was the lowest its been since 2007. Tulo’s torrid September makes him the better choice if you subscribe to the “What have you done for me lately?” school of thought, but I’m a proponent of “What have you consistently done for me over the last few seasons since you’re just entering your prime?” It would probably be more popular if it had a better name.
George: If it’s the last couple of seasons you want to look at, then we can talk about Ramirez’s declining ISO (from .239 to .175) over the last three years. When it comes to shortstops, power is where these two players really separate themselves from the rest of the group as only four hit more than 20 home runs last season. The only season Ramirez hit over 30 home runs, his 19.2 HR/FB percent was much higher than his career average (13.4 percent), which suggests that he was lucky. If Ramirez’s power doesn’t return to a near-30 form, there is no major difference between him and Tulowitzki. I would rather take the player who excels more in home runs, rather than the one who will win out in steals. Also, in keeper leagues it should be noted that while Tulo is a perennial gold glove threat at shortstop, Ramirez is an average fielder at best and could be moved to the outfield and lose his position eligibility.
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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Despite a 2010 campaign considered to be subpar (by his standards), Hanley Ramirez remains the second-ranked player in fantasy baseball heading into 2011. In fact, you can make an argument that the Marlins shortstop should be taken ahead of Albert Pujols based on position scarcity. Consider this: According to Mock Draft Central’s ADP, there are 10 first basemen currently being selected in the Top 50, opposed to just five shortstops.
Ramirez will bat third for the Marlins in 2011, though he’ll be without the protection of the franchise’s all-time home run leader Dan Uggla, who was traded to the Braves this offseason. Despite this, Hanley will be the leader of a very young and talented lineup in south Florida.
The elbow soreness that forced Ramirez to miss games late last season is no longer an issue, so pencil him in for 650-plus plate appearances in 2011. Any suggestions of Hanley relinquishing the top spot at shortstop to Troy Tulowitzki should be silenced when considering Ramirez’s remarkable durability. Over his five-year career, the 27-year-old has averaged 152 games played per season (Tulowitzki has averaged 132 games played since 2007) and owns the most impressive three-year power/speed average.
| PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| 2010 stats | 619 | 92 | 21 | 76 | 32 | .300 |
| 3-year average | 655 | 106 | 26 | 83 | 31 | .314 |
| 2011 FBI Forecast | 670 | 100 | 26 | 90 | 34 | .311 |
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