Kuzul

In 2010, Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez had what—by his own lofty standards—could be considered a down year.  Hanley “only” batted .300 after hitting .330 or better two of the previous three years.  He “only” hit 21 HRs, the lowest total since his rookie campaign. 

He also failed to reach 100 Runs scored for the first time in his career, and his RBI and SB numbers were on the lower end of his career averages.

And yet, Hanley Ramirez remains a no-brainer top three pick in fantasy baseball leagues. 

Ramirez’s “down year” line of .300-92-21-76-32 still made him the 15th most valuable player in fantasy baseball in 2010 according to Baseball Monster, a website that quantifies fantasy value for standard rotisserie leagues. 

Among shortstops, he was #1 and only the Rockies’ Troy Tulowitzki was close.  In 2009, Ramirez was the 5th most valuable player at any position.

What these statistics should tell you is that even if Ramirez only qualified at 1B or OF, his five-category production would make him worthy of a first round pick.  Add in the fact that you can plug him in at SS, fantasy baseball’s shallowest position, and it’s clear why a legitimate case can be made for him going No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts.

So if Ramirez is an obvious top three pick, how early should you consider Tulowitzki, who nearly matched Ramirez’s output last year? The answer: early, but not as early as you might think.

Again, let’s remember that we’re talking about a below average year for Ramirez.  In 2009, Tulowitzki had an even better year than he had in 2010, but he was still far less valuable than Ramirez.  Ramirez gets a boost from his position eligibility, but the biggest reason he is a top five pick is that he’s proven that he is capable of top five production. 

Tulowitzki has proven he is capable of top 15 overall production, which is still extremely valuable at SS.  He’s just not in the same stratosphere as Ramirez, as least not yet.

The other thing to consider before you take the Tulowitzki plunge is the risk factor.  While Ramirez missed several weeks at the end of last season with elbow inflammation, he still easily surpassed 500 at-bats, as he has every year in his career. 

Tulowitzki, on the other hand, missed large chunks of the 2008 and 2010 seasons with injuries and has only made it to 500 at-bats twice in four years.

Of course, the fact that Tulowitzki was able to put up such impressive numbers in 122 games in 2010 points to his upside.  But another risk factor with Tulowitzki is his streakiness. 

As of September 1st, Tulowitzki had a total of just 12 HRs, 55 RBIs and 9 SBs through 92 games.  He was hitting at a .315 clip, but was still on the verge of being a major bust.  Tulowitzki came alive in September with 15 HRs and 40 RBIs in 28 games, an astounding hot streak that salvaged his 2010 season. 

Heading into last season, it was widely believed that a major part of Tulowitzki’s fantasy value was his ability to swipe 20 bags, as he did in ’09.  But he finished with just 11 SBs in 2010.  If Tulowitzki’s SB totals continue to fall, his value will be more and more tied to incredible HR streaks, which makes for a risky proposition.

None of this is to say that Tulowitzki shouldn’t be considered in the mid-to-late first round of fantasy drafts.  He is still young and could continue to improve, and his potential production at SS is very appealing.  Just realize there is a significant drop-off between him and Ramirez.

In fact, Tulowitzki’s value could end up as close to the Mets’ Jose Reyes as it is to Ramirez’s. 

Reyes is even riskier than Tulowitzki, considering his recent injury history and inconsistent production, and you can’t expect him to hit more than about 15 HRs.  The big question with Reyes, though, is how much he’ll run.  If he only steals 30 bases, he may not end up being much more valuable than Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, Alexei Ramirez or Elvis Andrus. 

But if Reyes can return to nabbing 55-plus SBs, his overall value could come close to Tulowitzki’s.

Overall, Tulowitzki is a good gamble in the late first round, while you should probably hold off on Reyes until the third round in 12 team leagues.  I just wouldn’t feel comfortable coming out of a draft with Reyes as my second best player.

No other shortstop is worth considering until round five or six at the earliest.  Rollins and Jeter are declining, Alexei Ramirez is the definition of inconsistent and Andrus is still somewhat unproven.  The perennially overrated Stephen Drew is just plain boring (where does the Drew hype come from?!?!??), and there will be players available in the 15-20th round of drafts that can give you similar production.

Outside of Drew, I would gladly take any of these guys if they fall a round or two further then they should.  But I wouldn’t reach for them when there are still more elite players out there at other positions. 

If I miss out on the mid-round shortstops, I will settle for a more forgotten declining veteran like Rafael Furcal, a solid-but-unspectacular bat coming off a down year like Yunel Escobar, a post-hype speed candidate like Alcides Escobar or a younger guy with 15-15 potential like Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Aviles, Ian Desmond or Danny Espinosa. 

In fact, I might try to take two guys from that list.  I suppose you could also consider taking a poor contact hitter with 20 HR potential like J.J. Hardy or Alex Gonzalez in the later part of the draft.

Are any of those guys particularly exciting?  Certainly not.  But because of the dearth of talent at SS, they probably won’t put you too far behind the other managers in your league, unless they happen to own Hanley, Tulowitzki or perhaps Reyes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Florida Marlins enter this year with a new ball club. They have so far made some necessary subtractions and some great additions,but as the Marlins make these changes division rivals are making strong notable improvements and these worry fans within the NL East.

Never the less the Marlins have made some big moves this off-season and here we will review their importance and value to help the marlins offense secure a playoff spot this 2011 season.

This review will take an in depth look at each position and how it has changed for the 2011 season.

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With the majority of the major offseason activity behind them (trading Dan Uggla, Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin; acquiring Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Dustin Richardson, Ryan Webb, and Edward Mujica; signing Javier Vazquez John Buck, and Randy Choate; extending Ricky Nolasco until 2013), we take a glance at the potential Florida Marlins lineup, starting rotation, bullpen, and bench and put it all together to come up with bold predictions for the 2011 season in a crowded NL East. Let’s take an early look at what we can expect to see from the fish in their final season at Sun Life/Land Shark/Dolphin(s)/Pro Player/Joe Robbie Stadium.

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    As I was getting ready for bed last night, I headed over to B/R to see what type of articles I could come up with for my nightly reading. I browsed through the NFL section and found nothing so I headed over to the MLB section and found a gem of sarcasm that I couldn’t help but scoff at. 

It appears that after the San Francisco Giants won the World Series by what most sports fans would say was a miracle run of good luck (and it was, make no mistake about it), Giants fans began to overvalue Matt Cain, and indeed, the entire rotation that pitched them through that World Series vs. Texas. 

Now, most fans rarely, if ever, will so openly discuss their blatant over-valuations of any one player. However, one Giants fan did just that by writing this article about what he thinks the Giants should receive if they decided to trade Matt Cain in the coming months. That fan’s name: Andrew Brining.

It has come to my attention that most San Francisco Giants fans have become disillusioned following the dream run through the postseason, but I had never thought that any of them had fallen this far, this fast. 

Now, I don’t want to be taken the wrong way. Matt Cain is a good pitcher, possibly even a great pitcher, but he is by no means worth what the majority of Giants fans seem to think. As I read over this article (and it’s rather well written) I couldn’t help thinking to myself “What are they drinking over there in San Francisco?” 

Let me begin by saying that if you haven’t read the article, you should. You’ll see what I’m talking about when you get to the first slide proposing a trade with the Orioles. Throughout the comment section, the author was kind enough to explain his position repeatedly to many people who were also kind enough to inform him that he was out of his mind. The problem with him repeating his position is that his position is incorrect. 

Mr. Brining repeatedly states that because the Giants won the World Series, they are the top team in the league. I don’t think that after the offseason they’ve had, or lack thereof, that the Giants (or their fans) should be touting themselves as top dog. Their offense is bad, their pitching is good. Problem is, several teams have tried the “Pitching Wins Championships” approach, and most of them fail. 

It’s true. Pitching does win championships. Pitching is top dog in the playoffs. If you have two pitchers who could be aces on most of the staffs in the league, and a serviceable 3rd starter, you can probably pitch your way through the postseason and through the world series. But make no mistake, offense (and defense) scoring, (and holding your opponent to fewer runs) are what get you to the postseason. 

Take a look at the 2009 Seattle Mariners. Their pitching was FANTASTIC. Felix Hernandez would have been the AL Cy Young winner in ’09 had there not been a masterpiece of a season by Zack Grienke. Their defense was the best in the league by every measurable statistic. Where were they in October? Sitting at home with the regular folk watching the playoffs on tv. Why? because their offense couldn’t get more runs over the plate than the opponent. Had they reached the playoffs, they probably could have won a series or two, possibly even made it to the World Series. 

Now take a look at the 2011 San Francisco Giants. They’ve got the pitching. They don’t have the offense or the defense. It’s going to be very tough for them to repeat. 

Which brings me back to the aforementioned article. Mr. Brining would like you to believe that, should the Giants get an offer on Matt Cain, and should they need to trade him (which they don’t…he’s young, he’s cheap, and he’s good), they can hold out until they get a trade that is absolutely lopsided in their favor. He’s thinking Cain for Hanley Ramirez or Miguel Cabrera here folks. 

Any rational baseball fan would look at these proposed “trades” and tell you they’re all fantasy. There’s absolutely no way any of the teams mentioned would trade the stars mentioned straight across for Matt Cain. Brining has an answer for that too: look at Cain’s body of work in the playoffs. 20 innings of scoreless baseball. That’s fantastic. That’s two and 2/9ths of a game. When you factor in the fact that the Giants had to play 15 games to win the world series, that’s not even 1/5th of the team’s games in the playoffs. 

Giants fans have become so disillusioned that they believe Matt Cain is worth more in a trade than 2010 Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez, more than 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee was (in both 2010 trades combined) and Lee’s body of work in the 2009 postseason was even more impressive than Cain’s. 

If Texas were to offer the Seattle Mariners Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler in a trade for Felix Hernandez, I think the Mariners would think about it. If they threw in Neftali Feliz to sweeten the deal, Jack Zduriencek would pick King Felix up, twirl him around his head and throw him in the general direction of Texas. 

Brining says that the Giants wouldn’t even consider trading Cain for Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler. I hate to break it to you bud, but Felix Hernandez has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the last two years, and even he could be had for that type of deal. Cain isn’t as valuable as King Felix, not by a long shot. Felix Hernandez is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Cain isn’t even top 10, probably not even top 15. 

The whole point of this article was to say this: Stop thinking a player is God simply because he played well during short run in the Playoffs. If San Fran was to be offered any of the deals mentioned in Mr. Brining’s article, they’d jump on those deals in a heartbeat. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Picture a young kid, no older than 12, hitting hundreds of baseballs into a ragged net, or throwing them at a makeshift backstop. They grow up with huge dreams, living in an impoverished nation of less than 10 million people.

Aside from the location, their dream sounds none to different than the one we all had, right? Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two out. The pennant on the line. With one swing, you win a ring, the love of a city, and secure financial stability for your family.

Of course, these two things aren’t really alike at all.

Picture that young kid again. Except this time he’s the target of a scout, or as they’re called locally: a buscon. The kid can run like the wind. He’s tall and strong. His parents, like so many here, are poor. Or, perhaps his parents aren’t around at all.

So, instead of being in school like we were when having these dreams, the kids are at a makeshift academy, ran by buscones. They live here, eat here and learn baseball here all under poor conditions. They’re sometimes honing their baseball skills under the direction of former prospects who went through the same situation.

There are lots of stories to be found about buscones. The large chunks of the signing bonus some take in return for the training. The way some of them help the kids lie about their ages and pump them with drugs: often of the performance enhancing variety.

Like anything, this isn’t always the case. One report from MLB identified Dominican imports committing identity fraud at a clip of 60 percent in 2002, but had that number reduced to 25 percent by 2009. So, progress has been made.

And, there are some success stories. From David Ortiz to Hanley Ramirez. Miguel Tejada to Vladimir Guerrero. Considering the size of the country, some big name players have emerged. Big money is going to players who are unpolished and untested, but have real athletic ability.

Like the steroid problem in the ’90s, when bad PR comes out, MLB moves fast and hard with corrective actions. Sandy Alderson was tasked with cleaning up some of the mess. Drug testing, identity verification, better facilities for training, English lessons and other steps have been taken within the academies ran by MLB clubs. Twenty-eight of the 30 clubs now have an academy in the DR.

There are less and less instances of exploited prospects being trust into American culture with added pressure to perform well at their craft. The kids are being taken care of better now. So, are the risks lower for teams?

Word came out on Monday that the Seattle Mariners have signed 17-year-old shortstop Esteilon Peguero, with a signing bonus of $4.9 million. Only three players in Mariners history have received bigger bonuses: Dustin Ackley, Ichiro Suzuki and Jeff Clement.

I asked Dave Cameron, co-founder of USSMariner.com and editor at FanGraphs.com if Mariners fans should be even a little stoked, regardless of how little we can possible know about Peguero, considering the size of the bonus. “These kids are lottery tickets,” he said, “but when they hit, they can be a big deal.”

It seems there is still quite a bit of risk involved. Peguero could be the next diamond in the rough, or he could be a sunk cost that returns home to poverty after several years of performing below expectations.

The good news is that regardless of the outcome, they’re being better taken care of during the process. They aren’t being told to lie about who they are. They’re living and training better. They’re even being offered an education outside of baseball by some teams. They aren’t just being treated as a future payday anymore.

The system still isn’t perfect. Neither for the teams or the players. There’s still some corruption and millions of dollars might still be sunk on a kid who never makes it to the show. But if they’re not just glorified slaves sold off to the highest bidder anymore, it’s a gamble much easier to live with.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Let’s get something clear right off the bat—I’m not advocating that the San Francisco Giants trade Matt Cain in the 2010-11 MLB offseason. I’m not even suggesting they should consider doing so.

The Kid has been the Giants’ most consistent pitcher for years, and he’s been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for the same duration. Though Tim Lincecum is unquestionably the staff ace and justifiably dominates the limelight, his right-handed stablemate is only a nose behind him.

What Cainer lacks in pure filth when compared to the Freak, he compensates for almost completely with mental impregnability.

Despite the sizable public perception gap, the actual difference in team import between the two aces is much narrower. Should anyone still doubt this fact, he or she need only reference the Gents’ 2010 World Championship campaign.

The squad probably doesn’t even make the playoffs without its longest-tenured member thanks to Lincecum’s struggles in May (4.95 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) and August (7.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). While the Franchise was wallowing in the misery of decreased velocity and lost command, Cain was at his best—he posted a 1.81 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in May, then followed it up with a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in August.

Remember, Los Gigantes needed a win in Game 162 to survive the regular season and San Diego Padres by a razor-thin, two-game edge in the National League West. So the margin for error was equally slim.

Oh, and speaking of the postseason, not even Tim Lincecum was better.

In fact, neither Christy Mathewson nor Carl Hubbell—nor any pitcher in the time-worn history of the Show—can look down upon Big Game Cain’s performance in October (OK, maybe Big Six can). That’s because the youngster from Alabama was virtually perfect—2-0, 21.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, seven BB, 13 K and only one extra-base hit (the miracle double to Ian Kinsler in Game 2 of the Fall Classic).

Nope, San Francisco has a handful of untouchables as far as trade chips go, and Matt Cain is most certainly one of those.

But therein lies the fun.

Just imagine what the franchise could demand in return for such a priceless commodity—this is a 26-year-old with successful postseason experience under his belt and off his back. Furthermore, he’s shown consistent improvement from each of his five full seasons to the next.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the hypothetical bounty Matt Cain could fetch.

And note, the acquisition of Miguel Tejada changes none of what follows.

At $6.5 million for one year, I’m intrigued by the Miggy signing. But he’d still take a reserve role to the guys on this list. On with it.

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It’s yet another awards season. The latest awards given were the Rookies of the Year. Obviously, there is controversy with awards given, especially the rookie ones.

It’s hard to objectively judge, especially with rookies, as some play in substantially fewer games. It’s one of those awards where any position can win.

Without further ado, here are the 30 best rookie seasons in the past decade.

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The offseason for the Florida Marlins has been quite a whirlwind and it a surprise twist blew the Marlins way when Dan Uggla stunned the front office be rejecting a four year, $48 million extension. This past season, Uggla had career highs in batting average (.287), home runs (33) and RBIs (105) with a steady salary of $7.8 million. 

Why would Dan Uggla reject the Marlins offer? For starters, Dan Uggla has essentially raised the bar on power hitting second basemen by hitting 30 home runs in four consecutive seasons, no second baseman has done that in the history of baseball, not even Chase Utley or Jeff Kent have accomplished that feat. 

The Florida Marlins are also hesitant to offer a long-term deal to a player whose production might begin to decline. Dan Uggla will be 31 by Opening Day and if he gets his way will be 36 by the end of the five year deal, something the Marlins want to avoid considering Uggla isn’t great with the glove at second. Uggla is expected to earn $10 million + in 2011 and gradually rise for the next few seasons of his contract. 

While these contract talks are akin to the Josh Johnson fiasco of the last offseason, Johnson is four years younger than Uggla at 26 and the Marlins are tend to shy away from offering long-term deals to players who are over 30. 

At the end of the day, I expect the Marlins to get a deal done with Dan Uggla just because this is the last thing the front office needs a season prior to the opening of their new stadium, bad publicity and another infamous jettison of a cornerstone player, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are prime examples. 

 If a deal gets done, expect for the fifth-year to include somewhere in the neighborhood of a mutual option or a vesting option which would give Uggla his dough if he achieves certain seasonal milestones. 

But what if nothing gets done? Here are five possible trade destinations for Dan Uggla if the Marlins deem Uggla out of their range..

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After various rumors circulating throughout the postseason as to who will manage the Florida Marlins in 2011, the ballclub wasted no timing in making a decision as they are expected to bring back interim manager Edwin Rodriguez on a full-time basis. 

Edwin Rodriguez went 46-46 with the Marlins, ending up in third place in the NL East but dealt with injuries to ace Josh Johnson, co-ace Ricky Nolasco, and injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Chris Coghlan.

Current Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez was dismissed in late June at 34-36 and in fourth place in the NL East.

Whether Edwin Rodriguez remains beyond the 2011 season remains speculative and hinges on the team’s performance on this upcoming season eve to the new ballpark in 2012.

Reports are that owner Jeffrey Loria is craving on a high-profile name in time for the 2012 season after swinging and missing on Bobby Valentine and Ozzie Guillen in recent weeks.

The offseason now focuses on the Marlins filling out the rest of coaching staff and roster, which is expected to get a boost on the defensive side.

According to Juan Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel, an announcement is forthcoming on both Edwin Rodriguez’s hiring and the return of infield guru Perry Hill who was with the Marlins from 2002 to 2006.

Perry Hill might prove to be the biggest offseason addition for the Marlins who were in the bottom of most defensive categories last season. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Gaby Sanchez had a combined 45 errors last season with the latter two setting career highs in that category.

Hill was most recently with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2009 as the Pirates infield and first base coach but was out of baseball last season after the ballclub refused to release him of his contract he wished to leave behind.

Beyond the coaching end, the Marlins will now set their sights on retaining infielder Dan Uggla and pitcher Ricky Nolasco on long-term deals which figure to be the cornerstones to the new era of the Florida Marlins in 2012.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Now that the least interesting World Series in years is finally over, all 30 MLB teams can again have hopes and dreams for the upcoming season. Most of the 2010 playoff teams are again favorites heading into the off-season, but there is always yearly change in who makes the playoffs. 

The following list is mostly compiled of teams who were not competitive at all late into the year. The teams are in order of how much change their 2011 season will be from their respective 2010 seasons. A major motif for these teams is how their youth will take it to the next level.

Here are the teams that were considered afterthoughts in 2010, but who are going to surprise everyone in the 2011 season. 

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