Kuzul

The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers have each filled major voids for left-handed power hitters for the middle of their respective lineups, while the St. Louis Cardinals didn’t waste time upgrading at the shortstop position. Out west, the Los Angeles Dodgers filled out the hole in the back of their rotation while the Angels picked up a former World Series MVP to man the hot corner. 

It’s been much busier than normal prior to the Thanksgiving holiday, but there are plenty of holes still left to fill for teams and a lot of free agents who can fill them. 

Here are eight of the more notable roster weaknesses that could be strengthened in free agency.

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Just when you thought you had seen and heard it all in this time of outrageous contracts and outrageous contract demands, along comes Nelson Cruz demanding $75 million.

That’s the word according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, anyway. In the wake of Jhonny Peralta landing a four-year, $53 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals, Heyman says Cruz is looking for “about” $75 million over four years. Or, if you prefer, about $18.75 million per year.

The general message: Hey, if Peralta can get a huge contract after being suspended for 50 games as a result of the Biogenesis investigation, then why not Cruz?

Here’s hoping the answer to that question is that there’s no way in heck that he could possibly live up to such a contract.

We can start by shooting one idea out of the sky: Peralta and Cruz may be in the same boat as far as Biogenesis, but they’re not in the same boat as players. One is significantly better than the other.

And it’s not the player Heyman thinks it is:

Free-agent outfielder Nelson Cruz had to be heartened by Jhonny Peralta’s $53 million deal, as Cruz is the better of these two Biogenesis-connected players.

Based on recent history, this just isn’t true. If we look at what Cruz, the up-until-now Texas Rangers star, and Peralta have done in the last three seasons using data from FanGraphs, we get this:

Cruz’s biggest edge is in power, as his .226 ISO over the last three seasons dwarfs Peralta’s .160 ISO. There’s not much separation between the two in wOBA and wRC+, however, in part because getting on base is kind of important and Cruz hasn’t been as good as Peralta at doing so.

Peralta’s other major edge is on defense. He gets a bad rap as a shortstop, but fielding metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved have tended to see him as a solid defender. These same metrics have seen Cruz as a well-below-average defender since the start of 2011.

Thanks to his ability to get on base, hit for some power and play solid defense at a premium position, he’s a WAR hero. And based on FanGraphs‘ WAR-based value system, he’s been worth at least $18 million in two of the last three years. He just signed a contract worth quite a bit less than that per year.

Cruz, on the other hand, has been worth less than $10 million in each of the last three seasons. The power may be there, but he’s not living up to a contract that would pay him almost $19 million per year unless he gets better at getting on base and playing defense.

Alas, one struggles to find reasons why he would.

It’s going to be hard for Cruz to get on base more consistently as long as he’s maintaining a roughly league-average walk rate, and his tendency towards fly balls will make sure his BABIP stays close to the average. It also doesn’t help that he strikes out more than the average hitter.

As for Cruz’s defense, it’s hardly surprising that a 230-pounder in his 30s suddenly has below-average range. It’s not hard to imagine Cruz having to be moved to first base, or perhaps into a full-time role as a designated hitter. 

Neither would help Cruz’s value all that much, if at all. Because according to FanGraphs, the only two positions that are less important than right field are…yup, first base and DH.

If it’s all-around production teams are after, there’s no way any of them can justify giving Cruz a $75 million contract. Such contracts should only go to frontline pitchers and position players with more than one talent. Cruz is neither.

But what the heck. Let’s assume that there’s a team out there that doesn’t give a rat’s you-know-what about anything besides Cruz’s power. Let’s assume this team is willing to pay for that and only that.

Well, this theoretical team could certainly be eyeing a worse player. Because Cruz isn’t just a great power source. He’s a great right-handed power source.

“Right-handed power is in short supply, and Cruz has it in spades,” wrote Steve Adams of MLBTradeRumors.com.

That pretty much sums it up. So does this graph comparing Cruz’s ISOs since 2006 to those of MLB‘s right-handed hitters since then:

After a modest bump in 2012, right-handed power in MLB went on the downturn again in 2013. Cruz, however, is still chugging away as an elite right-handed power hitter. 

Cruz is surely aware of this, so it’s not hard to see where he’s coming from. If you knew you had something that teams have every reason to covet, wouldn’t you seek a $75 million payday?

Of course you would. And Heyman‘s right. Given what Cruz has to offer, it’s not a shocker that he has so many teams interested in him.

What would be a shocker, however, is if there’s even one team out there that actually views $75 million as a price worth paying for Cruz’s power. Because as attractive as his power is, it does come with some strings attached.

Because Cruz has gotten to play half his games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington since being traded to the Rangers in 2006, you’ve probably already figured that his power has less-than-awesome home/road splits. There are, after all, few ballparks that are as launchily-paddily as the Rangers’ digs.

We can use FanGraphs data to take a look at how Cruz’s power has played at home and on the road since 2006: 

About what you’d expect, and that’s not good.

The plate appearances are about even, but there’s a sizable difference between Cruz’s home ISO and his road ISO. A primary symptom of that is what’s going on in the FB% and HR/FB columns. Cruz has hit more fly balls away from home, but fewer balls over the fence. 

In addition to his on-base mediocrity, this is a big reason why park-adjusted stats like wRC+ (114 career) and OPS+ (also 114 career) say that Cruz is only a moderately above-average hitter. His power just isn’t that explosive when he’s away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, which fits with its reputation as a park that makes power out to be more explosive than it really is.

This should be a red flag for interested parties. Another should be Cruz’s age.

As far as free agents go, Cruz isn’t young. He’s through his age-32 season, and the four-year deal he seeks would cover his age 33-36 seasons.

Let’s do an experiment. Cruz has compiled a .233 ISO over 2,056 plate appearances in his last four seasons. How many right-handed hitters have ever done that well between the ages of 33 and 36?

According to Baseball-Reference.com, only 16. And they are:

The most recent of these guys was Manny Ramirez, and there’s obviously a taint on his late-career production. Same goes for Gary Sheffield. And for Sammy Sosa as well. And for Mark McGwire. 

We don’t have to go all the way down the line trying to sniff out other PED guys. You get the idea, which is that it’s not at all easy for hitters to A) stay on the field and B) hit for legit power once they get into their mid-30s.

And for the record, it does appear to be harder for right-handed batters to do it than lefty batters and switch-hitters. A search also returned 16 lefty batters and switch-hitters who managed at least 2,000 plate appearances and a .230 ISO between the ages of 33 and 36, but none of them did worse than .240. Five of the righty batters pictured above did worse than .240.

That there are precious few power success stories for the 33-36 age group fits with the conventional wisdom for how power ages. FanGraphs‘ Eno Sarris, for example, did research that found that the real danger period for power is in a hitter’s late 20s. That’s when the decline starts to ramp up, and it only gets worse for hitters in their 30s.

And no, Cruz wouldn’t appear to be a great candidate to age well. Per Baseball Prospectus, his injury history includes six trips to the disabled list, all since 2009 and all with leg injuries. And while it didn’t necessarily impact his 2013 season given that the clinic closed well before Opening Day, his connection to Biogenesis doesn’t look good.

So paying Cruz based on the notion that he’ll be a good all-around player? He’s not good at getting on base or playing defense, so that notion fails the “good idea” test.

As for paying Cruz based on the notion that he’ll be a consistent source of right-handed power, his home/road splits and his age are both red flags. That notion fails the “good idea” test as well.

Cruz can’t be blamed for looking for something as grand as four years and $75 million. He’s a free agent. What free agents do is negotiate. When negotiating, it’s rarely a good idea to low-ball one’s value.

Especially not at a time like this. Extra money from MLB’s new national TV deals is out there to be had, and it doesn’t take a great set of eyes to see that clubs aren’t afraid to distribute it. Carlos Ruiz got $26 million. Jason Vargas got $32 million. Though it wasn’t a bad deal, $53 million is more than people figured Peralta would get. All of this makes for an extra reason to aim high.

But based on his skills and where he’s at in his career, Cruz would have a hard enough time living up to even as much as a $50 million contract. By targeting $75 million, he’s aiming much higher than any team should be willing to go.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Perhaps nothing in sports is more motivating than having to watch your archrival succeed.

That’s just what the New York Yankees spent this past October doing, though, as the Boston Red Sox won it all after dominating the Yankees and the rest of the American League East during the regular season.

While the Yankees decision-makers would almost certainly never admit it, the fact that the Red Sox did what they did this year in such surprising fashion—remember, they finished last in the division in 2012—has to be motivating and even inspiring the Bronx Bombers this offseason.

Motivating because, well, when a team you play 19 times a year and have a long, long history against gets the better of you, it’s only natural to want to strike back. 

And yet inspiring because of how Boston was able to turn things around so quickly by reloading and restocking via free agency—in came Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster and David Ross—which is what it seems the Yankees themselves are intent on doing this winter.

While there are certain, shall we say, ongoing distractions and that whole $189 million luxury-tax threshold that the Yankees have to be aware of as they attempt to remake an aging roster that experienced an injury-riddled 2013 campaign, it’s become quite clear that general manager Brian Cashman and managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner have a desire to address a great many problems and issues this offseason.

“The only thing I can confidently tell you,” Cashman told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News back in October, “is when the last name is Steinbrenner, the effort is going to be there in terms of making a full push for having the best team on the field you can possibly have.”

Already, in fact, we’ve seen what seems to be the start of a return of the Yankees of old, as they handed out the largest free-agent contract so far in giving catcher Brian McCann $85 million last week. In one fell swoop, that move more or less announced that the Yankees mean business.

And in case you haven’t noticed, they’ve been linked or tied to or mentioned as suitors of just about every big name on the open market, from outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran to starters Masahiro Tanaka, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza to infielders Stephen Drew, Omar Infante and Jhonny Peralta (who has since signed with the St. Louis Cardinals).

And of course, there’s also Robinson Cano, the second baseman who’s grown into one of the best players in the sport over the past handful of seasons with the Yankees. The latest, from Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York, is that the two sides remain far apart, with Cano’s camp still clinging to the 10-year, $300-plus million pipe dream of a contract.

But as Mike Bauman of MLB.com wrote following the McCann deal:

The McCann signing should be just the beginning for the Yankees. They have their own incumbent second baseman, Robinson Cano, to sign, and he will doubtless be the most expensive free-agent signing, the only question being how expensive. It is difficult to imagine another club prevailing in a bidding war with the Yankees over Cano’s services.

Of course, there is the potential Alex Rodriguez problem alluded to above, as the Yankees may not know for sure how much, if any, of the third baseman’s $31 million contract (including incentives) will count toward their 2014 payroll until a decision is handed down—perhaps as late as January—on Rodriguez’s 211-game suspension for his alleged involvement in the Biogenesis scandal.

But even that doesn’t seem to be stopping the Yankees from enacting their plan to go big or go home. As Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York pointed out, the club’s proposal to Cano may not stay on the table forever, especially if it precludes the team from going after and signing another top target or two:

While the Yankees want Cano to stay, they have already agreed with Brian McCann on an $85 million contract and are engaged in talks with a number of other free agents, which is chipping away at their goal of lowering the 2014 payroll to under $189 million to cut their luxury tax burden.

If some of the Yankees’ targets agreed to deals before Cano decides, then Cano — who most believe wants to remain in the Bronx — runs the risk that the Yankees could lower their offer or move on.

While a source emphasized there is no “ultimatum,” the Yankees feel they only have so much wiggle room above their initial seven-year, $160-plus million offer to Cano, in the context of their $189 million goal.

If that’s true, Cashman and his cohorts appear to be executing a selectively aggressive approach toward this offseason. And that’s because this offseason is perhaps the most important for the Yankees franchise in the past two decades, as the holdovers on the roster are dealing with age and/or injury issues and the team is coming off a playoff-less season for just the second time in the past 19.

As if that weren’t enough, the Yankees also have a bad taste in their mouths from sitting home in October and watching the Red Sox win a championship after an offseason of roster maneuvering the Yankees can only hope to match this time around.

Whether you want to call that motivation or inspiration—or both—it seems to have brought the Yankees back to life.

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Cheaters never prosper, Mom and Dad always said. Boy, were they wrong.

By now, no doubt, you’ve heard about the four-year, $52 million contract the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to with shortstop Jhonny Peralta, according to multiple reports.

Yep, that would be the same Jhonny Peralta who just served a 50-game suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drug scandal at the tail end of the 2013 season, only to return in time for the playoffs and perform productively.

So, then, cheaters can prosper, it seems.

No wonder the news drew the ire of some in and around Major League Baseball, including a pair of relief pitchers: Brad Ziegler of the Arizona Diamondbacks and free agent David Aardsma.

There’s something to the sentiment—the anger, the frustration, the helplessness—projected by Ziegler’s and Aardsma’s tweets. It does, after all, feel wrong, or at least a little icky, that someone who broke the rules (and very recently so) should more or less be rewarded in the end.

In fact, the fervor rose to such a crescendo over a player whose contract essentially justified his doing something that by his own admission was wrong—Peralta copped to a “terrible mistake” after his August suspension—that his new general manager had to come out and defend the decision to hand out the contract.

Here are Cardinals GM John Mozeliak’s words (h/t ESPN):

Character and makeup are something we weigh into our decision-making. In his case, he admitted what he did, he took responsibility for it. I feel like he has paid for his mistakes, and obviously if he were to make another one, then it would be a huge disappointment.

So Mozeliak acknowledged the concerns others expressed. He also said, “You do need a deterrent, and right now 50 games does not seem to be necessarily stopping it.”

Therein lies the problem.

The point is, people shouldn’t be mad at Mozeliak and the Cardinals. If not him and them, some other GM of some other team would have given Peralta nearly the same deal (or maybe an even more lucrative one). That’s a guarantee.

And while Peralta is at fault for his indiscretion, it’s also likely that most people reading this would have done the same thing in his shoes, if their career and livelihood—and millions and millions of dollars—were on the line.

Plus, it’s not like Peralta was rewarded for cheating. The Cardinals didn’t go, “Oh, hey, Jhonny, we’re gonna give you a million dollars for every game you were banned, plus two for good luck!” No, he was rewarded with payment based on both his career and expected future production, as well as the timing and circumstances of the market for the services of a player at a premium position that is incredibly challenging to fill.

Instead, the problem lies with the system. Peralta’s contract—along with the one Melky Cabrera signed last winter and the one Nelson Cruz will land at some point in the near future—proves that baseball’s drug program, while vastly improved over the past decade and arguably the toughest among the four major pro sports, still needs some reworking.

Ziegler, the Diamondbacks’ player rep, pointed out as much in a follow-up message:

Until something changes on the penalty front in baseball, there will still be incentive for players to skirt, bend or full-out cheat the rules, particularly when money is involved.

Maybe that means 100-game suspensions for a first-time offense. Maybe it should be an entire season. Or maybe teams should be able to work in some sort of language into contracts to withhold or dock pay if a player tests positive. Heck, maybe even teams should get hit with some kind of penalty if they sign a player with a positive test in his past.

All of that, though, is for the players union and the league to decide. And that, folks, will be one hard-fought battle on both sides, even though the overwhelming sentiment among players these days seems to be that cheating ain’t cool, bro.

If it’s not clear by now that the system and penalties need to be addressed, consider one final thought.

Here’s how you know something’s wrong: A solid but unspectacular player like Peralta would have hurt his free-agent value more had he been tendered and rejected a qualifying offer by his former team—and thus cost the Cardinals their precious first-round draft pick—than he did for, oh, merely being suspended as a part of a wide-ranging PED scandal that sullied an entire sport.

Better not tell Mom and Dad.

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The Detroit Tigers were linked to seemingly every “proven closer” under the sun last winter. In the end, general manager Dave Dombrowski moved to acquire none of them.

The closer search is on again this winter. This time, however, it sounds like Dombrowski sees a guy he actually likes: Brian Wilson.

According to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, the Tigers are “moving towards a possible deal” with the 31-year-old right-hander, formerly of the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. In related news, Henning also noted that the Tigers have been “aggressively hunting” a closer, preferably one with a “younger, more dynamic arm” than that of the 36-year-old Joaquin Benoit. 

Color me fascinated. More to the point, color me…well, nodding my head in approval if you can manage that level of artisticness (trademark pending).  

It’s hard to pass complete judgment on the Tigers’ apparent interest in Wilson without knowing any terms. But since Dombrowski declined to chase Rafael Soriano last winter and is apparently fixing to sign Wilson over Joe Nathan this winter, I feel safe in speculating that the terms would be modest. Dombrowski may want a closer, but he doesn’t seem dumb enough to pay “proven closer” prices.

In this case, paying a more subdued price for Wilson to step in as the club’s closer is easily justified. He’s a guy who absolutely has the goods to outperform a modestly priced contract.

We naturally have to start with how Wilson performed in 2013. He started his comeback from a 2012 Tommy John operation—unfortunately not his first—in August, and quickly gathered steam.

When it was all over, he did this in the regular season and the postseason:

The “DANGER: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” caveat applies here. A total of 19.2 innings isn’t a whole lot. Certainly not enough to draw definitive conclusions about a guy. If it were, Wilson would be drawing a ton more interest as a free agent than he seems to be.

But still, wow. That’s one earned run allowed in 24 appearances, and a strikeout rate that stands tall over his 24.8 career mark. And for a guy who hadn’t pitched in over a year, an 8.2 walk rate is pretty darned impressive.

In addition, Wilson was keeping the ball on the ground quite a bit. Per FanGraphs, his regular-season GB percent was 56.3. In the postseason, it was 71.4.

Never mind the ERA and the WHIP. The strikeouts, walks and ground balls represent the really exciting aspect of Wilson’s comeback. There’s only so much a pitcher can do to control how much success he has, but striking batters out, limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground is about as good a recipe for success as there is.

Can Wilson keep this up? That depends on what or whom you ask.

If you ask a what, your best move is to consult some sort of projection system. Steamer’s a good one, and if we pluck Wilson’s Steamer projections for 2014 from FanGraphs and compare them to his 2013 production, we get:

In other words: No, Wilson’s not going to be an absolutely dominant pitcher again in 2014.

ZiPS is another good projection system, but, alas, it would seem that ZiPS maestro Dan Szymborski is keeping the figures to himself for the time being.

However, Szymborski did chime in on Twitter:

In other words, the same refrain: No, Wilson’s not going to be an absolutely dominant pitcher again in 2014.

Lackluster projections admittedly aren’t the only reasons to be skeptical about Wilson. One thing I noticed is that 11 of his 21 strikeouts were of the looking variety. That’s over 50 percent, a figure that demolishes his pre-2013 rate of 31 percent and the 2013 league average of 24 percent. My powers of logic tells me that’s going to be a hard feat to repeat.

Then there’s Wilson’s fastball velocity. Per FanGraphs, the Baseball Info Solutions data says he worked in the 95-96 range in his heyday in 2009-2010. In 2011, a year during which he told the San Francisco Chronicle he was pitching with considerable elbow pain, he averaged 94.3 miles per hour.

But in 2013? Just 93.2 miles per hour.

So why be optimistic?

One reason is that decreased velocity didn’t mean a decreased ability to miss bats in 2013. It’s a small sample size number, but FanGraphs has his 2013 swinging-strike percentage at 9.2 percent. That’s a tick higher than his career rate of 8.9 percent.

Wilson kept it up in the postseason. Though it doesn’t see such things exactly the same way that FanGraphs does, Baseball-Reference.com says that Wilson’s swinging-strike percentage in October was 12 percent.

Perhaps not so coincidentally, there was something else going on: Wilson was reaching back for some extra velocity. As Brooks Baseball can vouch, there was a spike in Wilson’s heat in October. He was regularly throwing 95 miles per hour.

Maybe that was Wilson’s old arm strength returning to him. Or maybe it was just adrenaline. Either way, it’s a sign that his old mid-90s velocity isn’t ancient history even after two Tommy John surgeries. Even if he can only do so on occasion, his elbow can still handle getting the ball up there in a real hurry.

If you’re worried that he can’t do so all the time, well, don’t be. There’s more to pitching than velocity, after all. Pitch selection, for example, is sort of important.

Speaking of that, did you notice the trend at play when you went and looked at Wilson’s velocity earlier? If not, well, this is it right here:

As time has gone on, Wilson has become less and less dependent on his heat and more and more dependent on his cutter. And after teasing an extremely cutter-heavy approach in the two appearances he made in 2012, he picked up where he left off upon his return in 2013.

Wilson also has a two-seamer in addition to a classic four-seam fastball. It’s a pitch he unveiled to much acclaim in 2011. And between the regular season and the postseason, Brooks Baseball says that Wilson threw his two-seamer almost as often as he threw his four-seamer in 2013.

Nothing forces a pitcher to reinvent himself quite like leaking velocity. That’s exactly what Wilson has done, moving away from a pitcher who got by on velocity and toward a pitcher who is going to get by on movement.

To study said movement, we shall go to the video.

Here’s one of Wilson getting Carlos Beltran looking on a cutter on the outside corner:

And if you watch to the end of this video, you’ll see a two-seamer that got Juan Perez looking:

That cutter? Pretty good.

That two-seamer? Also pretty good.

And since it’s there to be noted, the control to put those pitches where they were put? Another pretty good thing. Maybe not 50-percent-looking-strikeouts good, mind you, but pretty good.

Here at the end, we re-acknowledge that the absurd numbers that Wilson compiled in his comeback are extremely unlikely to happen again. There’s a lot going right, and then there’s a bit too much going right. Wilson’s comeback was a case of the latter.

But since Wilson compiled those absurd numbers with the cunning use of filthy-moving pitches and good location that got him lots of strikeouts and ground balls and kept his walks at a decent rate, there’s plenty to like about how he attacked his comeback. And that, in turn, means there’s plenty to like about him going forward.

Even if the terms end up being less modest than one figures they will be, Dombrowski and the Tigers have their eyes on a darn fine choice for their closer role.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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New York Yankees catchers made for a living, breathing definition of the term “pushover” in 2013. Combined, they managed just a .289 on-base percentage and 26 extra-base hits.

Thanks to the club’s latest signing, however, the position can now be considered upgraded.

As Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News was first to report, the Yankees have agreed to terms with the top catcher on the free-agent market: 29-year-old slugger Brian McCann. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has the terms of the now-former Atlanta Brave’s deal:

That would be an average of $17 million per year, which Rosenthal subsequently noted is the highest average annual value ever given to a free-agent catcher. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says the deal also includes a full no-trade clause.

This is the first free-agent contract worth over $80 million handed out by the Yankees since that wild spending spree they went on prior to the 2009 season. After they didn’t even want to match the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ offer of two years and $17 million for Russell Martin last winter. This deal with McCann does have a sort of “Back in the game!” feel to it.

And in the end, it should prove to be money well spent.

Now, before we get into the good stuff, it should be acknowledged that there are red flags growing out of McCann’s head (not literally…to my knowledge). Chief among them are that he has a lot of miles on his body and that his bat isn’t foolproof.

McCann is only through his age-29 season, but he’s already started over 1,000 games at catcher. That’s an awful lot of time in the crouch, and it’s taken its toll. Three of his McCann’s four trips to the disabled list have happened since 2009, and he battled shoulder woes in 2012 before going in for surgery. His recovery cost him the beginning of the 2013 season.

It’s because of the shoulder trouble that the 87 OPS+ McCann posted in 2012 can be forgiven. But while he did turn around to the tune of a 115 OPS+ in 2013, his OPS dropped from .910 in the first half to .680 in the second half. With no injury to blame these struggles on, maybe he was just worn out.

But here’s where we start tiptoeing into the bright side. 

Simply by virtue of being an American League team, the Yankees should be able to keep McCann fresher than the Braves were able to. All it will take is some semi-regular duty at designated hitter.

McCann’s hardly a defensive liability behind the plate, mind you. He’s not among the greats at controlling the running game, but he works well with pitchers and is one of the better framers out there. He’s not one of these guys who’s a hitter first and a catcher second (a la what Mike Napoli used to be).

However, getting the most out of McCann’s contract undoubtedly means getting the most out of his bat. Getting him out of the crouch as often as possible is the best way for the Yankees to do that.

Any American League team could have done the same, of course, but only the Yankees could give McCann the other thing that should help them get the most out of his bat: Yankee Stadium.

We all know what the deal is with Yankee Stadium’s right field porch. Second basemen have to be careful not to bump into it when they turn around for a leisurely stroll, and all it takes for a left-handed batter to hit the ball over the fence is a flick of the wrists.

Per Baseball-Reference.com, the 598 home runs Yankee Stadium has yielded to lefty hitters since its opening in 2009 is the most in MLB. The only ballpark even remotely close is Orioles Park at Camden Yards, which has yielded 500 home runs to lefty batters since 2009.

The lefty-swinging McCann ought to like the idea that this is about to be his new home ballpark. He already holds the distinction of being one of the 10 best power-hitting catchers through the age of 29 in MLB history, and he owes that to his pull power.

According to Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, McCann’s career power splits look like this:

Few lefty batters have hit for as much pull power as McCann since he came into the league in 2005. From then until now, his .396 ISO on balls to right field ranks 15th among all lefty batters who have hit at least 700 balls in that direction.

And lest the thought cross anyone’s mind, McCann’s not losing his touch. His .514 ISO on balls to right field in 2013 ranked fourth-best among lefty hitters. Not even Chris Davis was his equal at pulling the ball for power.

McCann is always good for 20 home runs a year. He’s hit that number six years in a row, and seven out of eight overall. Yet he’s never tended to go that far over 20 home runs, topping out at a 24 home runs on two occasions.

But now that he’s going to be a Yankee, it’s not crazy to think that McCann will be a regular bet for 25 or even 30 home runs. His new home ballpark is bound to give him a few extra dingers, and his power will have an easier time lasting a full season if the Yankees make sure he gets his days at DH.

That signing with the Yankees ought to increase McCann’s annual power output makes $17 million per year sound like a more-than-fair deal. That’s not a ridiculous amount of money in this day and age, especially not for a power-hitting catcher. They’re as rare a breed as they’ve ever been.

There’s another thing about $17 million per year, though. In addition to a more-than-fair rate for a catcher with great power, that’s also an acceptable rate for a first baseman with relatively not-great power.

And we bring that up, of course, because that’s bound to be what McCann is a few years down the line.

The end of Mark Teixeira’s eight-year contract is nigh. He’s only signed through the 2016 season, giving him three more seasons in pinstripes before he goes poof.

We can envision the following scenario for McCann: He’ll spend his age 30-32 seasons catching and DH’ing, and then he’ll pull a Joe Mauer and transition over to first base for at least the last two guaranteed years of his contract after Teixeira is gone.

Based on his track record, McCann doesn’t profile as anything more than an average first baseman. He owns a 117 career OPS+. As Dan Szymborski pointed out in an ESPN Insider piece (subscription required) back in October, all of MLB’s first basemen combined for a 116 OPS+ in 2013. According to FanGraphs, 10 qualified first basemen did better than McCann’s .205 ISO. It is indeed the position for a power hitter.

But since we’re taking it for granted that playing regularly at Yankee Stadium will serve to increase McCann’s power, the Yankees could well have more than just an average offensive first baseman on their hands if and when they have McCann take Teixeira’s place after the 2016 season. And by then, $17 million per year may actually be under the going rate for a first baseman who can hit a little bit.

There’s always risk with these big-money long-term deals. Due in no small part to their own numbskullery, the Yankees know this as well as anyone. 

But here’s me going out on a limb to say the Yankees aren’t going to regret this one. McCann’s now in a league that can take care of his battle-hardened body, in a ballpark that’s a perfect fit for his power stroke, and on a team that should have him out of the crouch by the time his deal is up.

In short, this is a rare time when celebrating in McCann’s vicinity should be OK.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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While a pair of trades dominated this week’s news in Major League Baseball’s offseason, there have been some intriguing, under-the-radar signings to this point too. Clearly, though, the open market has yet to really get rolling. Before that happens, it’s worth checking in to see what kind of bang teams are getting for their buck. 

In terms of size and scope, the biggest free-agent contract is the four-year, $32 million deal the Kansas City Royals handed out to lefty Jason Vargas, formerly of the Los Angeles Angels. That’s not a small chunk of change, but admittedly, that transaction lacks the excitement and impact of the swap that sent Prince Fielder (and $30 million) to the Texas Rangers and Ian Kinsler to the Detroit Tigers. Or even the one involving David Freese going to the Angels and Peter Bourjos heading to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Since you probably haven’t been riveted by all the lower- and mid-tier free-agent signings, here’s a rundown, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors’ easy-peasy transaction tracker tool, of the biggest contracts based on average annual value (AAV) through the first three weeks of November:

(Note: For the purposes of this piece, we’re not going to consider Hunter Pence, who scored $90 million over five years, and Tim Lincecum, who landed $35 million for two, as free agents, simply because they re-upped with the San Francisco Giants prior to becoming available to the 29 other teams. Same goes for Derek Jeter, who re-signed with the New York Yankees for $12 million.)

So what do these early pacts reveal?

Let’s start with this: In general, the market price for a win is considered to be about $5-6 million in free agency, although that number surely is trending higher.

There are two big reasons why the going rate is spiking: One, MLB’s latest television deals with ESPN, Fox and TBS mean that each of the 30 teams has an extra $25 million, give or take, to play with per year than in previous seasons. Also, savvy execs have taken to locking up their most talented players, so the top names simply aren’t reaching the open market as frequently or as early in their careers as they used to.

When there’s a greater supply of money as well as a higher demand for players, basic economics says that those available names are bound to get more than they otherwise would (or should).

And yet this offseason’s market hasn’t gone bananas. 

Sure, it might be a stretch to say that $34 million for four years of soft-tossing, homer-prone Jason Vargas or $26 million for three years of soon-to-be 35-year-old Carlos Ruiz is a good buy. Sometimes, though, the early inkings do turn out to be the best bargains. They are, after all, setting the market’s going rate to an extent.

That in mind, here’s a repurposing of the above table, only this time, to put the new salaries into context, there are two extra columns: The first calculates, using the $5 million-per-win standard noted above, how much value each player would have to produce in order to roughly be worth the money; the second shows each player’s average production over the past three seasons based on FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR):

While there is some rounding involved, what you should notice immediately is that none of these signings appears to be out of line given each player’s recent past production (from 2011-2013).

You might not agree with the valuation of one or more of these pacts for any number of reasons (i.e., the risk of giving three years to Javier Lopez, a lefty specialist reliever). Overall, though, this is a sign that the ratio of bang to buck is reasonable—at least in MLB terms—as long as the players can continue to perform close to the way they have.

That’s partly because, at this stage, teams have hopped on players with a clear flaw (or two), be it advancing age, injury concerns or limited potential. This makes them riskier picks than the big names, but not necessarily bad decisions.

After all, it’s much easier to get a net-positive return on a smaller deal, and it’s also less likely that such a contract will blow up a club’s finances or roster construction going forward. Almost assuredly, none of the players who have signed will be needle-movers over the next year or two, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t prove worth it in the end.

If the past few offseasons have taught teams anything, it’s this: The bigger the name, the bigger the contract—and the bigger the risk. Hello, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton…the list goes on.

That holds true, even in this toned-down world of lower-tier signings, as Keith Law of ESPN pointed out in analyzing—and questioning—the Royals’ decision to go to four years for Vargas:

Deals of four years or more for non-elite starters don’t have a happy history — the names Carl Pavano, Edwin Jackson, Russ Ortiz and Gil Meche come to mind — and it seems like there were similar or better options who wouldn’t have required a commitment of this length. It makes the Royals a little better for now, but Vargas operates with such a slim margin for error that he could end up cannon fodder by the middle of the deal, especially if he loses another half-grade of velocity.

That brings up another point. For many of these early deals, rather than asking, “Will this player be worth it?” the more appropriate question might be: “Was this player the best option within the price range?”

In other words, the initial contracts don’t seem to be way out of whack—nothing yet looks like an egregiously poor buy—but every choice essentially wipes out other possibilities a team might consider within that price range or at that position, options that might have been safer or better or more likely to pay off in a bigger way. Rosters are, after all, limited to 25 players at any one time.

Here’s Jonathan Bernhardt of Sports On Earth, again discussing the Vargas contract:

…while the Vargas contract is not in and of itself an albatross, $8 million a season is a significant (if small) piece of the Royals’ budgetary pie, and there have already been rumblings that the Vargas signing prices Kansas City wholly out of the Ervin Santana market. It’s too early to tell if that’s legitimate or just posturing on the Royals’ part, but Santana is a clearly better pitcher than Vargas if still only league average over the course of his career (100 career ERA+ to Vargas’s 91).

Of course, Vargas’s $8 million a year is less than half the annual value of the contract Santana’s camp has indicated they’re looking for, which is something in the five- to six-year range worth around $100 million. If salary creep has been pushing up the wages of below-average starters like Vargas, it’s been absolutely ballooning the salaries of consistently league-average pitchers.

The second part of Bernhardt’s analysis is the reason why this initial batch of deals, while not the most provocative or most likely to produce huge returns, doesn’t look all that bad: Eventually, some team is going to go in big after one of the top-tier free agents, offering $15 million or $20 million (or more) per season over a handful of years.

That’s just the sort of decision that can backfire enough to prevent a franchise from making future free-agent signings, or worse, from locking up the talent already on the roster to long-term extensions.

Three weeks into this offseason, it seems, teams are getting bang for their buck that’s just about in line with the players’ recent production, give or take a few million here or one or two of the deals there. There are a number of variables that will determine whether Ruiz, Marlon Byrd or David Murphy are worth it in the end, but teams haven’t necessarily been lavishing unwarranted and unrecoverable riches on the free agents who’ve signed so far.

Where things are going to change—and almost certainly for the worse—is with the players at the higher end of the market, where the amount of money and the number of years make it more about the bucks and less about the bang.

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There’s a player on the free-agent market who has a history at a premium position, is coming off a season in which he hit over .300 and is still in multiyear contract territory at 31 years of age.

You’d think that this guy would be one of the biggest no-brainers for a big contract. Instead, he’s probably the hardest guy to figure of anybody out there in the free-agent waters.

We can now lift the veil of obscurity and reveal this player to be Jhonny Peralta. Since you read the title of this article, you obviously knew that. I’ll also venture a guess that you’ve stumbled across this article because of all the recent chatter involving Peralta. It seems his name is everywhere all of a sudden.

It helps to be linked to both New York clubs. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported earlier this month that Peralta had met with the Mets. Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported the Yankees’ interest in Peralta.

Elsewhere, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has mentioned the Seattle Mariners as a possible fit. According to Morosi, the Baltimore Orioles are the latest team to join the fray, and they’re doing so with a twist:

That the Orioles are looking at Peralta as a left fielder is an interesting wrinkle. He’s a shortstop by trade, and he only played left field at the end of 2013 because the Detroit Tigers needed third base for the slugging Miguel Cabrera and shortstop for the slick-fielding Jose Iglesias.

But then, maybe Peralta’s not a shortstop or a left fielder. Maybe he’s a third baseman. He’s played 213 career games at the position, and it’s his ability to play the hot corner that inspired FoxSports.com to highlight him as a potential stand-in for Alex Rodriguez in The Bronx. If the veteran slugger is lost for 2014 as a result of that ongoing thing he’s dealing with, of course.

Another interesting wrinkle? Peralta’s price tag. It’s pretty big, and there are apparently teams willing to meet it.

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported a while back that Peralta was looking for $45 million over three years. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman says the actual numbers in Peralta’s mind are much bigger:

Seems like a lot doesn’t it? Surely nobody out there is going to be willing to come anywhere even close to those numbers, right?

Well, you’d be surprised. Here’s Peter Gammons:

Four years at $13 million per year comes out to $52 million. That’s pretty close to that four-year, $56 million range that Sherman floated.

Surprised? So was I at first. That does seem like a lot of money for a guy like Peralta, who has the general look and feel of a walking pile of puzzle pieces.

But if you venture to put the pieces together, the interest in Peralta does begin to make sense.

At first glance, it seems like foolishness to pay $50 million for Peralta. That reeks of paying for his contract-year performance.

He definitely did have a good season offensively, hitting .303/.358/.457 with 11 home runs in 107 games. According to FanGraphs, the only shortstop (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a bigger wRC+ in 2013 was Troy Tulowitzki.

But behind all this is Peralta’s track record, which isn’t so great.

Per FanGraphs, Peralta owns a 102 wRC+ for his career. Per Baseball-Reference.com, he owns a 101 OPS+ for his career. Since 100 signifies average for both statistics, Peralta’s only been a slightly above-average hitter throughout his career.

On top of that complication is Peralta’s sheer inconsistency over the past five seasons:

In three out of the past five seasons, Peralta has been a below-average hitter. Simple as that. And while he did rebound in 2013, it’s hard not to notice that he did it despite his lowest walk-to-strikeout ratio of the past five seasons and with a grossly inflated .374 BABIP.

The strikeouts are concerning. Peralta’s 21.9 K% was his highest since 2007, and it was no accident. His swinging-strike percentage in 2013 was 11.0. That was a two-percent increase on 2011 and 2012.

As for that BABIP, well, the conventional wisdom is that what goes up comes down. Peralta’s career BABIP is .315, so .374 does look like a mark that can’t possibly last.

This, however, is where we find another interesting wrinkle in the curious case of Jhonny Peralta.

Hitters don’t have a ton of control over whether or not balls in play find the holes in the defense, but they can control how they hit the ball. And in 2013, Peralta did do one thing better than he had ever done: hit line drives.

Via FanGraphs, here’s how Peralta’s LD% has progressed since he became a full-time player in 2005.

Line drives are good, see. They’re the kind of batted ball that’s most likely to go for a hit. The league’s top BABIP merchants tend to hit a lot of line drives. That’s what Peralta was doing in 2013.

What’s equally encouraging is how Peralta was picking up so many line drives. Per Brooks Baseball, he hit both fastballs and breaking balls on a line at a rate he hadn’t done in years. Given how hard of a time he’d been having hitting breaking balls on a line in recent seasons, it’s clear that some sort of adjustment was made.

So that .374 BABIP of Peralta’s? Yeah, it was a bit inflated. And yeah, it will be coming down. But since 2013 wasn’t a same-old-same-old kind of year for him, it’s fair to doubt if his .315 BABIP really works as a baseline for what his performance should be heading forward. If he keeps producing line drives at the rate he did in 2013, his baseline BABIP will be higher and will serve as a solid floor for his offensive production.

Elephant in the room? Oh, right. Elephant in the room.

Yes, Peralta was suspended for 50 games as a result of the Biogenesis investigation. And yes, that suspension did cast the numbers he was putting up in a negative light.

But it’s possible to play devil’s advocate here. By the time the Miami New Times introduced everyone to Biogenesis, the clinic was already closed. That was in January. The season began in April. There is a reasonable doubt that Peralta’s ties to the clinics had nothing to do with his 2013 season.

So those teams that are apparently willing to pay Peralta over $50 million in a four-year pact? Based on how he succeeded in 2013 and where Biogenesis is in his timeline, their confidence isn’t entirely unjustified. 

Now then, about Peralta’s glove…

Peralta doesn’t have the look of a guy who should be playing shortstop on a full-time basis. He’s listed at 6’2″ and 215 pounds, making him 45 pounds heavier than fellow 6’2″ shortstop Andrelton Simmons. 

And if we’re being honest, Peralta doesn’t pass the eye test as a particularly appealing shortstop. Watch him play, and you’ll marvel neither at his range, nor his hands, nor his arm strength.

But you know what? Peralta’s really not too shabby of a shortstop.

That’s the opinion of the defensive metrics, anyway. If we use FanGraphs to take a look at his recent shortstop performances through the eyes of defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating, we see a defender who, while not necessarily great, is certainly solid.

How exactly does a guy with no eye-popping physical attributes manage solid defensive numbers?

Good question. The most logical explanation is that Peralta has a knack for positioning, and it’s worth noting that he’s made more plays outside of his zone over the past three years than Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. There’s something to be said about his instincts.

Given that Peralta is 31-going-on-32, it’s likely that he only has so many days left at shortstop either way. But since his performances at short aren’t on a clear downward trajectory, a team could conceivably sign him as a shortstop and get one or two more good years out of him there.

As for Peralta serving as a third baseman or a shortstop/third baseman hybrid, that could work too. We know he can still handle short, and he played a decent third base the last time he played there on a regular basis in 2010. His UZR was subpar, but not by much at minus-1.1. His defensive runs saved, however, was on the other side of zero.

As for the idea of Peralta in left field, there’s no way to make any sort of definitive call there. He only played left field for a handful of games at the end of 2013 and barely got any practice in before he found himself playing there in games.

There are, however, a couple of positions where teams can stash lugs who can’t field and get by OK. Along with first base and right field, left field is one of them. Since Peralta’s no lug, he could probably handle left field just fine if given fair enough warning to get some practice in.

So all told, where exactly is Jhonny Peralta’s place on this year’s free-agent market?

Well, he’s a hitter who looks better than his decidedly average track record, which puts him safely in the realm of above-average hitters. He’s also a player who could conceivably start at shortstop, third base or left field, or perhaps hold down a job as a rover between all three. 

A good-hitting, solid-fielding shortstop/third baseman/left fielder? That there’s a player who has his own place on the free-agent market, and one that teams have every right to be interested in.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Of the free-agent signings thus far, there are certainly a couple that could turn out to be bargains. If Josh Johnson (San Diego Padres) and Chris Young (New York Mets) return to form, they’ll be well worth the one-year deals at the cost of $8 million and $7.25 million, respectively.

Same for David Murphy, who signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Cleveland Indians, and LaTroy Hawkins, who will cost the Colorado Rockies no more than $2.5 million to at least start the season as their closer.

Here are five more potential bargains still available on the free-agent market. 

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Three weeks removed from the end of the World Series. Not even two weeks removed from the general managers meetings. Winter meetings still on the horizon.

Such is the precise location of Major League Baseball’s offseason. It’s still more or less in the “getting to know you” phase.

Yet there has been a decent amount of moves made, some of which have moved the needle only slightly and some of which have moved the needle a bit more than slightly. There’s still much to be determined, but the offseason has begun to take shape.

Is there any way of predicting what the big picture is going to look like? Not really, no. The offseason has a mind of its own that tends to paint awfully messy big pictures.

Based on a couple of early developments, however, we have a sense of how different sections of the big picture are coming together. 

For example, there’s what’s going on in…

The Catching Market

At last check, the answer is “no.” Neither Brian McCann nor Jarrod Saltalamacchia has signed yet. The catching market hasn’t gotten that much of an early shakeup.

It has not, however, been altogether quiet.

The biggest contract given to any player since free agency opened went to Carlos Ruiz. The Philadelphia Phillies gave him $26 million over three years, an amount that raised a few eyebrows given the sort of player Ruiz is at this point in his career.

Ruiz is no spring chicken, as the 2014 season will be his age-35 campaign. And if you want to go by FanGraphs WAR, Ruiz is coming off his worst season since 2008 with a meager WAR of 1.4. It’s also worth noting that he served a 25-game stimulant suspension at the start of the season.

In fairness to Ruiz, he did get better as 2013 progressed, notably hitting .333 in August. But based on appearances, the Phillies gave a nifty multi-year deal to an aging catcher. That makes one wonder what’s now in store for other aging catchers.

Well, it sounds like one of them is in line for a multi-year deal of his own. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Tampa Bay Rays are circling a two-year deal to keep Jose Molina in the mix.

It’s been a good bet all along that Molina would end up back with the Rays, but color me a wee bit surprised at the prospect of him getting a multi-year deal. He’ll be 39 years old next year, and he hasn’t posted an fWAR of 1.0 or better since all the way back in 2005.

So Ruiz gets a lucrative multi-year deal, and now it sounds like Molina is going to get a multi-year deal. It’s highly unlikely that it will be a lucrative one, mind you, but any sort of multi-year deal for a player like him shouldn’t be ignored.

A free agent who should be liking the sound of this? How about A.J. Pierzynski.

Despite the fact he was coming off one of his greatest seasons, Pierzynski settled for a one-year contract last winter. He went on to have a typical A.J. Pierzynski season, posting a 90 wRC+ and a 1.6 fWAR. Both numbers slightly outpaced what Ruiz was able to do, and easily outpaced what Molina did.

At 36 going on 37, Pierzynski is in between Ruiz and Molina in age. While that probably makes a three-year deal like Ruiz’s highly unlikely, I’ll wager that the market has better positioned him for a multi-year offer than last year’s market did.

Take Ruiz, Molina and Pierzynski off the market on multi-year deals, and two older starting catchers and one older kinda-sorta starting catcher will have done well for themselves. Concerning the two big-name guys on the market, this can only help.

Heck, the Ruiz deal in and of itself helped McCann and Saltalamacchia. For a simple reason, as McCann’s agent, BB Abbott, pointed out to Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas.

“It doesn’t change what we think of [McCann]. But it’s significant in that another catcher is off the market. It’s another puzzle piece that isn’t out there,” said Abbott.

If Molina does indeed follow Ruiz off the market and then Pierzynski happens to follow him shortly after, the market’s catching depth is going to be pretty thin. The result for McCann and Salty could well be bidding wars that result in eye-popping deals.

Elsewhere, interesting things are happening in…

The Outfielder Market

Like McCann and Saltalamacchia over in the catching district, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson and Nelson Cruz are all still biding their time, quietly watching things take shape.

And taking shape is what things have indeed been doing.

Excluding super-utility man Skip Schumaker, three outfielders have signed contracts out on the open market: Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus and David Murphy. They each got a two-year deal worth double-digit millions: $16 million for Byrd, $10.5 million for DeJesus and $12 million for Murphy.

On Friday, another outfielder came off the market. As reported by Buster Olney, former Arizona Diamondback and Oakland A Chris Young is going to the New York Mets:

What do these four outfielders have in common? Not a whole heck of a lot. Byrd and DeJesus are in their mid-30s. Murphy and Young are both in their early 30s. Byrd’s a power guy. Young is a power and speed guy. Et cetera, et cetera.

But if you look back over the last three seasons, one thing these guys have in common is that they’ve basically been average-ish players.

A wRC+ of 100 is defined as being exactly average. An average WAR varies, but FanGraphs says that a WAR in the neighborhood of 2.0 is more or less average. 

Three of the four outfield signees have been slightly below-average in the eyes of WAR but have been solid hitters. Young is the guy who hasn’t been so great at the plate, but his all-around skill set makes him the biggest 2011-2013 WAR hero of the four.

Yet even despite that, a WAR of 2.5 is nothing special. Nor is a wRC+ between 96 and 106. Thus, “average-ish.”

By wRC+, the list of outfielders who have been average-ish over the last three seasons includes Nate McLouth, Raul Ibanez, Jason Kubel and Reed Johnson. Mike Morse belongs in the average-ish crowd as well, as he only has a 98 wRC+ over the last two seasons. If the going rate for an average-ish outfielder on this year’s market is $5-8 million per year, then that’s what these guys could be in for too.

Once you’re beyond them, then you’re into the good guys. Here’s what they’ve done over the last three seasons:

Beltran, Choo, Granderson and Ellsbury have all been easily above-average players over the last three seasons in the eyes of WAR and wRC+. WAR doesn‘t like Cruz so much, but his wRC+ does speak the truth about him: He’s not a great hitter, but he is better than the average hitter.

There’s never been a question as to whether any of these guys would get paid better than the average outfielder. But based on the early signings of Byrd, DeJesus, Murphy and Young, they now have a general idea of what the average outfielder is worth on a per-year basis on this year’s market. It’s a price they can look to double, triple or, as a last resort, just plain beat.

Just a hunch: This is what it’s going to come to for Cruz. Maybe even Granderson too. 

From here, we head to…

The Starting Pitching Market

This year’s market isn‘t a particularly strong one for starting pitchers. As Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors pointed out back in September, such markets can result in pitchers being paid more than their talent is worth.

Based on how things have unfolded so far, we do seem headed in that direction.

There have been three starting pitchers plucked out of the market’s “worth a shot” bucket. The San Francisco Giants signed veteran sinkerballer Tim Hudson to a two-year, $23 million contract. The San Diego Padres then nabbed Josh Johnson on a one-year, $8 million contract. The Kansas City Royals picked up Jason Vargas on a four-year, $32 million contract.

Hudson comes from the “worth a try” bucket because he’s coming off a season that came to an early end in July thanks to a gruesome ankle injury. That and because it’s somewhat concerning that his ground-ball and fly-ball rates are trending in directions you don’t want to see with a sinkerballer.

For what seemed like the umpteenth time, Johnson put another injury-marred season together in 2013, making only 16 starts due to arm trouble. In the starts he did make, he was shelled to the tune of a 6.20 ERA.

As for Vargas, a blood clot in his left shoulder required surgery and forced him to miss basically two months of action. That he got four years in light of that is surprising. It’s also surprising in light of his career ERA+ of 91, which qualifies him as a below-average pitcher.

Johnson, a classic reclamation project, got $8 million. Vargas, a mediocre pitcher with a medical red flag, got $8 million per year. Hudson, an aging pitcher coming off a severe injury, got $11.5 million per year.

These deals look pretty solid in light of how last year’s market played out. MLB Trade Rumors’ database returns 23 free-agent contracts for starting pitchers from the 2012-2013 offseason. On average, the AAV of those was about $7.7 million.

Yup. Johnson, Vargas and Hudson all did better than that.

Now we await the fallout. Hudson’s deal could mean a nice deal for a guy like Bronson Arroyo or even Bartolo Colon, who ESPN’s Jayson Stark says is now on the lookout for a two-year deal. Johnson’s deal could mean good things for other project pitchers, such as Gavin Floyd or Jason Hammel. Vargas’ deal, meanwhile, could have the biggest impact of the three.

As fellow MLB featured columnist Joe Giglio noted, Phil Hughes could end up being the biggest beneficiary of Vargas’ multi-year contract. If a mediocre pitcher like him could get four years, then maybe Hughes, he of the 95 career ERA+, can too. Ditto Paul Maholm, he of the 96 career ERA+.

But inevitably, the pitchers from the “worth a try” bucket are going to run out. That’s when it will be time for the really big numbers to be tossed around for multi-year targets like Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Nolasco and still-got-it veterans like Hiroki Kuroda, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon and Bronson Arroyo.

In the meantime, keep an eye out for…

More Blockbuster Trades

When Prince Fielder signed a nine-year, $214 million contract with the Detroit Tigers a couple of winters ago, I’m guessing none of use saw a trade coming just two years into their partnership.

Yet that’s what happened on Wednesday night. The Tigers sent Fielder and $30 million to Texas for Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler, a deal that I like very much for both sides.

As far as blockbuster trades go, this was the first of the 2013-2014 offseason. And sure, it might be the last. Given the complicated nature of such things, it’s not the best idea to apply the same domino-effect thought process that can be applied to free-agent signings. 

However, the pieces are absolutely in place for the norm to be turned on its head this offseason. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote:

Big names are being tossed around this off-season—more than usual, some sources suggest, although others argue it’s only rumours that are on the rise—and with a relatively thin free agent class inflated by a spike in national TV money, teams may be more motivated to trade rather than shop the open market.

He’s right about big-name trade targets being tossed around more than usual, and those with expensive long-term contracts haven’t been spared.

Before the Rangers dealt Kinsler, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that Elvis Andrus was a trade target. He’s also reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers are listening on Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported back in October that the Cincinnati Reds would shop Brandon Phillips. 

For the longest time, the conventional wisdom on big-money contracts was that they were basically immovable. If a team found itself with a big-money contract it didn’t want anymore, too bad. 

These are different times. Plenty of teams have good money coming in from local TV deals, and Davidi mentioned the extra TV money teams have to play with. At an extra $25 million per year starting in 2014, it’s not a small amount. The number of potential landing spots for big contracts via trades has increased.

The Fielder-for-Kinsler trade isn‘t a trend in and of itself. It is, however, a hint of a possible trend. One that we’d all do well to take seriously.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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