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Max Scherzer is on the verge of winning the American League Cy Young Award. Is he also on the verge of being traded?

“On the verge” might be a bit strong, given that a top-of-the-rotation arm like Scherzer—the favorite to be named the Junior Circuit’s top pitcher for the 2013 season on Wednesday—isn’t exactly the type of asset that a team with World Series aspirations like the Detroit Tigers just up and deals.

Then again, the team has made it known that it’s listening to offers for the 29-year-old, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. That’s attributable to the right-hander’s looming free agency after 2014. So if the Tigers don’t think they can ink Scherzer long-term, a trade could make sense.

The other reason general manager Dave Dombrowski might be up for moving Scherzer is to deal from a strength (i.e., the rotation) to bring back a return that would help the Tigers in their multiple areas of need, namely second base, outfield, catcher and bullpen.

Realize, though, that the Tigers are in win-now mode, coming off three straight AL Central crowns and having been on the doorstep of a championship the past couple years. In other words, if—and it’s still a big if—they’re going to move Scherzer, it’s probably not going to happen for two or three prospects who are a year or two away. They’re more likely to want players who can bolster their 25-man roster right away in 2014 and make the club younger and cheaper.

The cost to acquire will be rather high given Scherzer‘s incredible performance. After all, we’re talking about a guy who posted a 2.90 ERA and AL-leading 0.97 WHIP with 10.1 K/9 while also winning 21 games.

Money, though, could be a potential hurdle here, as Scherzer‘s salary is estimated to double from the $6.725 he earned in 2013 to somewhere in the range of $13-14 million in his final go-round at arbitration. And of course, the fact that his agent is Scott Boras, whose clients generally don’t sign extensions before hitting the open market, will only further complicate matters, as any interested parties will be hesitant to give up too much for only one year.

As such, two criteria seem like requirements when it comes to determining which clubs might fit the bill as a trade partner: First, the teams must be contenders ready to make a World Series push next year; and second, there should also be a need for a front-of-the-rotation arm to lead or enhance a staff.

Of course, it wouldn’t hurt for inquiring teams to have the funds to at least be able to offer Scherzer a nine-figure extension, if a deal is contingent upon such a pact.

Although it may seem unlikely that Scherzer will be traded, primarily because he’s been a key part of the Tigers’ success the past few seasons and should be again next year, a freshly minted Cy Young winner was, in fact, swapped just last offseason.

Not quite a year ago, the New York Mets sent R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays last December for a package of prospects, including catcher Travis d’Arnaud and right-hander Noah Syndergaard.

There’s a key difference with Scherzer, though: The Tigers are on the opposite end of the competition cycle from the rebuilding Mets.

Whether Scherzer will prove to be the latest ace on the move remains to be seen, but given all of the above circumstances and factors, here’s a batch of teams who are most likely to pursue him—and have the means to get a deal done.

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The starting rotation of the Detroit Tigers is one of the best in baseball. It had the most wins (76), the lowest ERA (3.44) and the least homers allowed in the American League last season while leading the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts.

And Cy Young Award candidate Max Scherzer, who the Tigers are reportedly willing to trade in the right deal this offseason, was probably the biggest reason why. 

Take him out of the equation, and the Tigers are left with a gaping hole in their rotation. Replacing his 23 wins (including two in the playoffs), 2.90 ERA and 16 starts (including two in the playoffs) of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed is no easy task.

In fact, it’s probably impossible unless they were able to sign free agent Ervin Santana, who also had 14 regular-season starts of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed. And even that wouldn’t be the same because Santana doesn’t strike out nearly as many hitters as Scherzer.

Maybe Masahiro Tanaka, who’s expected to be posted from the Japanese League later this offseason, is capable of picking up the slack. Maybe not is more likely. Pitchers like that are few and far between, and the price would be outrageous for a guy who might be able to fill Scherzer‘s shoes. 

But that’s exactly why the Tigers are willing to shop the 29-year-old Scherzer a year before he’s eligible for free agency. Unless the Tampa Bay Rays trade David Price, it’s likely that he’d be the best starting pitcher acquisition of the offseason, and the return could be huge.

If they don’t feel that a contract extension can be worked out, it wouldn’t hurt to at least find out what one season of his services would bring them back in a trade. 

When rumors first surfaced last month after Danny Knobler of CBS Sports first reported a Scherzer trade as having a “real chance,” I named five potential suitors and the trade package it would take for each team to acquire him.  

Each package contained a very good prospect or two and, in most cases, a pitcher who could help the big league club in 2014. For an organization with a weak farm system and needs in the bullpen, these types of deals would need to be explored.

Pulling the trigger on one of those types of deals, however, could be disastrous for a team that has averaged 92 regular-season wins and has reached the ALCS in three consecutive seasons.

Even if it’s a move that can be viewed as necessary for the future success of the organization, taking a major step back during any season in which stars Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are still in the prime of their careers could be viewed as a lost opportunity. 

Lefty Drew Smyly (pictured), who is next in line for a rotation spot in Detroit, is deserving of a shot. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were much better than the average No. 5 starter. The problem is how it affects the rotation as a whole.

Verlander, as he proved late in the season and throughout the playoffs, is still one of the best pitchers around and one of a few true “aces” in the game. Anibal Sanchez, whose spectacular season (14-8, 2.57 ERA, 2.7 walk rate, 10.0 strikeout rate) was overshadowed by Scherzer‘s win total, would follow him in the rotation. He’s a very capable No. 2, especially if 2013 wasn’t a fluke. But he may have been the best No. 3 in baseball. 

Doug Fister is in the same boat. One of the best No. 4 starters in baseball but only pretty good as a No. 3. It’s also hard to complain about having Rick Porcello as your fifth starter. But a guy with a career 4.51 ERA as the No. 4 starter doesn’t speak well for the overall state of the rotation. 

Of course, it’s possible for general manager Dave Dombrowski to sign one of the second-tier free-agent starters, such as Dan Haren or Bartolo Colon, to preserve the little rotation depth the Tigers have and keep Smyly in the pen for now. The drop-off wouldn’t be as severe, and he could look to upgrade in another area of the roster to try to make up for the rotation downgrade. 

The risk in heading into the season without the strength of the team intact, however, is much greater than in years past.

In 2012, the Tigers allowed much less talented teams in the division to hang around longer than necessary before pulling away late in the season. This year, the competition from the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals was heated, and Detroit barely held on to edge out Cleveland for the division title. 

Things won’t get any easier in 2014, as the young core of talent on those same two teams should continue to get better and the other two division opponents, the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins, have lots of payroll space and are each capable of making a splash this winter. 

It’s difficult to stay on top as the Tigers have done for the past three seasons. The offseason planning of their rivals likely revolves around what they need to do to knock the champions off the top. It can also be difficult to get back on top after you’ve fallen—the Tigers went 24 years (1987-2010) without winning the division. 

With or without Scherzer, there’s a possibility that they aren’t the last team standing in their division at season’s end.

But with the team’s window to win a World Series championship with their current high-paid stars likely closing sometime in the next few seasons—lack of minor league talent to replace aging veterans has a tendency to do that—they must take the win-now approach even if it means losing Scherzer for nothing more than a draft pick next offseason.

Dombrowski could be tempted by the offers, but he’ll pass on each and every one. Why? Because he knows that missing out on the playoffs in 2014 because the starting rotation wasn’t quite strong enough could haunt the organization for years. And he doesn’t want to be the cause of that.

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After keeping it holstered last winter, the word is that the New York Yankees are ready to get their checkbook out again this winter, and that they’re not going to be messing around when they do.

That will be the case as far as their pursuit of Japanese right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka is concerned anyway, and yours truly is inclined to say “Rightfully so!” to the idea.

Tanaka has been mentioned as a top target of the Yankees before, but it’s Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports who has the latest:

Sources with knowledge of the Yankees’ plans said they are ‘going to be bold’ in bidding on the 25-year-old right-hander when the Rakuten Golden Eagles post him, likely later this month. Just how high the Yankees plan on going is unclear, but executives believe the winning bid for the rights to negotiate a contract with Tanaka will top $75 million, nearly a 50 percent premium over the posting fees for Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Exactly when the Yankees will be able to be bold in their pursuit of Tanaka is the tricky part. Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league are between agreements on the posting process, and it may still be some time before a new agreement is struck.

In the meantime, though, we can talk about this. Specifically, we can talk about whether Tanaka is worth so much fuss. I’m of the mind that he is, partially because “so much fuss” is a relative term.

Now, $75 million is a lot of money. But posting fees don’t count toward the luxury tax and the Yankees are an extraordinarily rich team, so a $75 million fee just for the rights to negotiate with Tanaka is money they can afford to part with a shrug and a “Meh.”

As for what kind of pitcher the Yankees would be negotiating with if they win the bidding, don’t ask Tanaka’s NPB statistics unless you like the sound of “Squee!” in your ear. 

Via Baseball-Reference.com, they look like this:

Tanaka’s career numbers are outstanding across the board, and “outstanding” doesn’t come close to describing his 2011 and 2013 seasons. And while I didn’t picture it out of my sympathy for the #KilltheWin movement, it should be noted that Tanaka went 24-0 in 2013.

But of course, we can only put so much stock in these statistics. The competition level of NPB is generally considered to be minor league-ish in nature. Just as dominant minor league numbers only tell you so much, dominant NPB numbers only tell you so much.

The bigger questions are what sort of pitcher Tanaka is, and whether or not his stuff will play against the armed and dangerous hitters of Major League Baseball.

The answers to these questions are about as encouraging as his statistics. Maybe even more so, if you’re the sort who goes for nod-and-a-wink teases.

The one number in that table up there that’s the least misleading is Tanaka’s career BB/9 of 1.9. That says he throws strikes, and that’s supposedly as true as the truth gets.

“He is better than [Yu] Darvish because he is a strike thrower,’’ one scout told George A. King III of the New York Post. “Overall, Darvish’s stuff might be a little bit better, but this guy knows how to pitch.”

An ability to throw strikes and general pitching know-how are things that must not be underrated, for these things can make even a pitcher with pedestrian stuff successful. Numerous pitchers can vouch, including Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma (more on him in a moment) and South Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu.

As for Tanaka’s stuff, here’s the take of Ben Badler of Baseball America:

At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70 splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low- to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he’ll mix in a curveball as well.

It’s discouraging that Tanaka’s fastball is flat. Phil Hughes has a flat fastball. Joe Blanton has a flat fastball. Tim Lincecum’s fastball has become pretty flat. They’re examples of how flat fastballs are bad.

But two secondary pitches that are plus? That’s good. And if you listen to other voices, a 70 grade for Tanaka’s splitter might be conservative. Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com recently noted that some scouts think Tanaka’s splitter might be the best in the world.

Bold talk. Maybe too bold. But Tanaka’s splitter is definitely a good one. You’ll notice as much if you skip to around the 0:15 mark in this World Baseball Classic highlight:

The mark of a good splitter is late downward movement, preferably with some horizontal run for maximum bafflingnessness* (*trademark pending).

The splitter Tanaka threw at the 0:15 mark had both these things, as it started to dive here:

…Ended up here:

…And moved like so:

That’s tons of late movement going both downward and horizontally, giving Tanaka’s splitter the look of the world-class splitter that it’s supposed to be. Top marks, indeed.

What’s just as encouraging, however, is that he supposedly trusts it completely.

“He throws four pitches but when it gets to [stone]-cutting time, it’s fastball and splitter,” said the scout who spoke to King.

I’m a fellow who readily admits to being easily intrigued by such things, but the notion of Tanaka as a fastball-splitter pitcher definitely intrigues me. In part because of something Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wrote back in May:

The emphasis on velocity and breaking balls in international scouting may very well be causing teams to underestimate the success that pitchers with average fastballs but great splitter/change-ups will have on this side of the ocean.

…these pitches [the splitters and changeups] are often the most effective at neutralizing opposite-handed hitters. By also commanding an average fastball and taking advantage of natural platoon advantages against same-handed hitters, the combination of skills has proven to be quite successful.

For example, take Hiroki Kuroda, Iwakuma and Koji Uehara. They did a fine job of demonstrating Cameron’s point in 2013.

According to Brooks Baseball by way of Baseball Prospectus, Kuroda and Iwakuma both ranked in the top five among starting pitchers in splitters thrown. Among relievers, only Edward Mujica threw more splitters than Uehara. All three Japanese imports were hugely splitter-dependent.

Better yet is what Kuroda, Iwakuma and Uehara did against left-handed batters with their splitters.

Pictured above is absolute splitter filth. Kuroda and Iwakuma used their splitters to get lefty hitters to whiff, but mainly to put the ball on the ground. Uehara got fewer grounders off the bats of lefty hitters with his splitter, but it’s hard to hit on the ground what you can’t hit, period.

As for fastball command, that’s a tricky thing to quantify. But according to the raw PITCHf/x data found on FanGraphs, Kuroda threw his sinker in the strike zone better than 50 percent of the time, and Iwakuma and Uehara both found the zone better than 60 percent of the time with their heaters. 

As for the natural advantage against right-handed batters, Kuroda, Iwakuma and Uehara had that going for them too. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Kuroda held righty hitters to a .602 OPS, Iwakuma to a .662 OPS and Uehara to a sterling .462 OPS. 

So the formula Cameron outlined was pretty much perfectly demonstrated by Kuroda, Iwakuma and Uehara, and they certainly reaped the benefits. Kuroda and Iwakuma finished in the top 25 among qualified starters in FanGraphs WAR, and no reliever had a higher fWAR than Uehara.

Said formula is one that Tanaka should be able to adhere to and benefit from as well. He absolutely has a splitter that should be hell on lefty hitters. He gets good marks for his command, which will help his suspect fastball. And as a right-handed pitcher, he should be fine against right-handed batters. He’ll certainly be better than fine if his slider translates to MLB as well as his splitter.

In short: If Tanaka’s going to crash and burn in MLB, I have a hard time imagining it being because his stuff and pitching style isn’t cut out to succeed Stateside. 

If there’s a concern, it’s that Tanaka’s arm won’t stay healthy enough for him to show off his stuff and pitching style on a consistent basis. I’ll let B/R colleague Joe Giglio fill you in on the details, but let’s just say that Tanaka’s arm already has a lot of miles on it and that him breaking down as a result of those miles is a legit concern.

But since we’re being largely optimistic here, it must be noted that there’s no such thing as a pitcher on the free-agent market who doesn’t have a lot of miles on his arm.

It takes at least six major league seasons preceded by who knows how many minor league seasons for a player to qualify for free agency. The pitchers hitting the market for the first time are all in their late 20s or early 30s. The ones who aren’t hitting the market for the first time are in their mid or late 30s.

Tanaka’s not in the same boat. He just turned 25 a week ago. So the question I’m going to propose now is one that I presume the Yankees must have kicked around at some point: Would you rather gamble on a 30-year-old with a lot of miles on his arm staying healthy throughout the life of a multiyear deal, or on a 25-year-old with a lot of miles on his arm?

Yeah, I’ll take the 25-year-old.

And if Tanaka does stay healthy, another advantage he’ll offer is that a multiyear deal would cover the rest of his prime years. A multiyear deal for, say, a 29- or 30-year-old pitcher would cover maybe one, two or at most three of his prime years, leaving the back end open for money to go to waste.

And on that last point, the money the Yankees are looking to pay for Tanaka isn’t the kind of money he’s going to have no shot of actually earning.

Let’s assume that it will be a $75 million posting fee. Then it would be a matter of the Yankees working out a contract, which Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com projects to be somewhere in the $65-75 million neighborhood over six or seven years.

So realistically, the Yankees are looking at a $150 million investment. Over seven years, that’s close to $21.5 million per year. Over six years, that’s $25 million per year. Currently, only two starting pitchers have contracts with an average annual value that high: Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

But you know how many pitchers were actually worth $25 million in 2013? According to FanGraphs’ WAR-to-dollars system, there were 10.

In other words: The ability of a pitcher to be worth $25 million is less exclusive than $25 million contracts for pitchers. 

For now, anyway. It must be kept in mind that a lot of money is being pumped into the game, and that a lot of this money is going to be pumped into contracts. As a result, a single win above replacement is going to become worth more money.

A few years from now, I won’t be surprised if the FanGraphs leaderboard is showing as many as 25 pitchers worth as much as $25 million on an annual basis. Given his youth and his pitching style, I also won’t be surprised if Tanaka is one of the 25 best pitchers in MLB, as Darvish, Iwakuma and Kuroda were in 2013.

Here at the end, we reiterate the question: Is Tanaka worth the trouble for the Yankees?

Well, let’s see. He has a style and repertoire that should allow him to succeed in MLB. He has miles on his arm, but his youth helps cancel that out. And a couple of years down the line, the huge investment the Yankees will have made on him won’t seem so huge.

So yeah. Go forth, Yankees. Go forth and be bold.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The 2014 MLB free-agent class is the best of the last decade. But where does its strength lie? Is it in the pitching department? The outfield? Catching? 

Does it have depth, star power or both? Will the supply and demand of the market force some teams to move quicker at certain positions than in others? 

Look no further than my free-agent positional rankings—catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching, relief pitching—for answers to those questions and much more.

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The New York Yankees may have problems, but let’s not go overboard. New York and the Yankees are still a draw, still an attractive destination for players.

Even if the team happens to be coming off a playoff-less 2013 campaign, it was only the second such over the past 19 season.

Even if longtime stars Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte are gone, and captain Derek Jeter is on his last legs, the club still has top-down stability in longtime general manager Brian Cashman and returning manager Joe Girardi.

Even if the unending Alex Rodriguez suspension saga continues to complicate matters, the team is likely to get at least some sort of a reprieve from that mess during the course of the 2014 season.

And even if free agent Robinson Cano, the club’s best player for the last handful of years, decides to move on, that doesn’t mean other players will suddenly shun the Yankees too.

After all, in addition to being a contender year in and year out and playing in a big market that brings attention and opportunity and recognition, the Yankees are a brand unto themselves.

Would it look a bit odd or off-putting for Cano to up and leave—by his own choice, essentially—at a time when he could be the face of the franchise? Sure, but to answer a question with a question: Don’t you think most people would be questioning Cano’s state of mind rather than the Yankees’ state of the union?

Perhaps the only area where the Yankees might not have quite the advantage they once did is, surprisingly enough, on the financial front. Obviously, given their market and payroll—which may or may not be “limited” to $189 million in 2014—the Yankees are able to spend a premium where Cashman and Co. see fit.

But then again, so can a lot of other teams, especially now that Major League Baseball has brought in billions of dollars via television deals, and that money can be pumped back into the clubs. Oh, and teams have been doing much of the same by establishing their very own regional broadcast networks too—something the Yankees did more than a decade ago with the YES Network.

In the past, the Yankees often could simply top any other team’s price for a player, whether as a free agent or a trade target looking for a massive extension. But because of the recent influx of TV money, that gap has narrowed to an extent. It’s part of the reason why there’s at least a chance that Cano, the top free agent on the market, actually might not return to the team.

But even if Cano does go, it wouldn’t exactly be a sign that things are crumbling around the Yankees from a perception standpoint. After all, let’s not pretend like the Yankees aren’t still a major draw—perhaps still the top draw—for star-caliber players just because 2013 was disappointing (by their standards), and because the roster is aging and injury-prone.

If anything, that just means that not only will the Yankees be looking to retool by bringing in new players this winter and beyond, it also means there will be even more opportunity for the next batch to wear the pinstripes. That should be enticing enough as is.

Turnover is inevitable in any business, even more so in the sports industry, but don’t think that the Yankees organization will have to push too hard to sell top names on coming aboard.

New York and the Yankees sell themselves.

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Cuba and Major League Baseball have what we’ll simply refer to as an “interesting” relationship. 

There is no official pipeline between Cuba and the big leagues, as the best Cuban ballplayers technically aren’t allowed to go play ball in the States. MLB gets some of the country’s best players anyway, of course. All thanks to…Well, we’ll refer to them as “interesting” means.

Yet the times are a’changin’. There’s still no direct pipeline from Cuba to the States that allows the best players to come right over. But there’s something in place now that can be fairly characterized as a stepping stone. One that could have a significant impact on MLB.

It’s old news by now, but word came through from the Associated Press in late September that Cuba had decided to allow its athletes to sign contracts to play in foreign leagues, a complete 180 from longstanding policies against sports as professional pursuits.

The decision, obviously, applies to baseball players. Here’s how the AP highlighted the basic idea:

The measure promises to increase the amount of money baseball players and others are able to earn, and seems geared toward stemming a continuing wave of defections by athletes who are lured abroad by the possibility of lucrative contracts, sapping talent from national squads.

Naturally, there’s a benefit for the Cuban government as well: It will collect taxes on earnings from foreign clubs.

That, however, is one of two key reasons why Cuba’s decision hasn’t opened up a pipeline to the big leagues. This is a case where MLB is essentially barred from counting as a “foreign league.”

That Cuban ballplayers will have to pay taxes on foreign salaries isn’t going to fly with MLB salaries. Because of some things that happened a few decades back, the American government doesn’t like the idea of money going from U.S. soil to Cuba, and has laws in place to largely prevent it from happening. Just because Cuba has a new policy doesn’t mean Uncle Sam has to follow suit.

Another complication is the fact that the new policy prohibits Cuban ballplayers from severing ties with their native country. Part of the agreement is that ballplayers will still be required to fulfill playing commitments in Cuba.

That means being available for international tournaments and the Cuban National Series, and the latter’s season runs from November to April. The latter end of that window overlaps with spring training and the early days of the regular season in Major League Baseball. 

So basically…

“If what the Cuban government wants is for [players] to come to the U.S. and make millions and go back to Cuba, that is not going to work,”  Roberto González Echevarría, a Yale professor who’s written a book on the history of baseball in Cuba told The New York Times. 

Now, maybe there’s a version of the future in which Cuban ballplayers are allowed to come to the States without breaking through any red tape. But that would likely have to involve Cuba disregarding its current requirement that ballplayers fulfill obligations at home, as well as the American government deciding it’s OK with major league salaries being taxed by the Cuban government. 

I doubt that the first thing can happen without the second thing happening first, and that’s a recipe for a stalemate.

However, there are good reasons why we’re bothering to have a conversation about how Cuba’s decision could impact Major League Baseball. At the least, the new policy promises to change the way Cuban ballplayers are scouted.

Put simply: It means Cuban ballplayers actually can be scouted now.

As Ben Badler of Baseball America explained:

While many Cuban games are televised and teams are able to obtain video of those telecasts, for major league scouts, their first-person evaluations of Cuban players typically come only during international tournaments. If Cuba’s top players were to be allowed to play in the Mexican League, even though major league teams wouldn’t suddenly be able to sign them, it would dramatically alter the way teams are able to evaluate Cuban talent.

It’s not just the Mexican League that could soon be featuring star Cuban ballplayers, mind you. Japan and South Korea could get in on the action as well, and those are two more countries that allow for easier access for MLB scouts.

And make no mistake: A more complete picture of Cuban players via increased scouting could be huge.

Let’s consider Yasiel Puig as an example. When he signed his seven-year, $42 million deal last summer, Badler noted that the league was stunned at how the Los Angeles Dodgers could so willingly throw money at a player about whom so little was known:

The question around baseball is how the Dodgers could justify awarding such a lavish contract to a player who scouts considered more of a solid than a spectacular prospect. Puig hasn’t played in a year, and aside from a light series of workouts last weekend that were more notable for a circus atmosphere than anything else, he hasn’t been seen (legally) by American scouts since June 2011.

Just think of how things would have been if Puig had actually been playing ball in a foreign league. All 30 teams in MLB could have dispatched scouts to check out a player who A) was in game shape rather than full-year-off shape and B) playing live baseball against decent competition rather than just taking batting practice and working out.

Maybe Puig’s extreme talent and potential would have stood out more, in which case there would have been a multitude of teams in on the secret. More teams could have found themselves coveting Puig.

It could have happened with him. It’s a good bet something of the sort will be happening with other players.

And considering how talented Cuban ballplayers—i.e. Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Puig and, most recently, Alex Guerrero and Jose Abreu—are already being signed for millions and millions of dollars, the notion of them being more widely coveted makes it easier to imagine even bigger dollar signs.

Of course, there’s the matter of how clubs coveting Cuban ballplayers actually translates to them sliding contracts across the table and subsequently welcoming them aboard. How is Cuba’s new policy going to make it easier for Cuban players to play in a league that’s still basically off-limits?

Well, it’s been extraordinarily difficult for Cuban ballplayers to defect in the past. But now that they’re free to go play in Mexico or wherever else for a good portion of the year, the very act of defecting is conceivably going to be a lot easier.

Yes, Cuban players plying their trade in foreign leagues will be making decent salaries. But they won’t be making major league salaries. Nor will they be putting their talent up against the best competition. The appeal of these things is bound to still be strong enough to lure players into defecting.

“If I were a Cuban player and I had the option of earning a good salary overseas and then coming back and playing here, that’s what I would do,” said Sigfredo Barros, a Cuban baseball writer, to The New York Times. However, he then he acknowledged: “But others may think differently.”

Even if the defections do ramp up, understand that we’re not talking about an outright flood of Cuban ballplayers coming to the major leagues. But there could certainly be a steadier stream of Cuban talent than there is now, and even that could have an impact.

After all, the writing is now on the wall in big, bold letters that Cuban talent is legit talent.

Consider the Cuban defectors who have made it to the major leagues just within the last four years (via Wikipedia):

Chapman and Jose Fernandez are highlighted because they’ve both been All-Stars. The former is one of the most electric closers in the league, and the latter is a finalist for the National League Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for 2013.

Puig, of course, is also a finalist for the NL Rookie of the Year. Jose Iglesias is a finalist for AL Rookie of the Year. Cespedes finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012, and won the Home Run Derby this year. 

Elsewhere, Leonys Martin compiled a higher UZR and more Defensive Runs Saved than Jacoby Ellsbury in 2013, according to FanGraphs. Dayan Viciedo struggled in 2013, but he did hit 25 home runs in 2012. Adeiny Hechaverria started 148 games for the Miami Marlins this year.

So out of the 13 players listed above, seven are either stars or solid players with everyday roles in MLB. Not a bad success rate for a four-year sample.

Worth mentioning are Yunel Escobar and Alexei Ramirez, who are both above-average shortstops, and Kendrys Morales, a power-hitting first baseman/designated hitter who should do well in free agency this winter. All three have debuted since 2006.

Which, for the record, is something of an important year in the history of Cuban defectors and MLB. A total of 45 Cuban defectors have made it to the major leagues. Of those, 23 made it between 1960 and 2005. The other 22 have all come since 2006.

Meanwhile, the league is awaiting the arrival of more marquee Cuban talent. Alex Guerrero and Jose Abreu are good bets to slide right into major league roles, a la Cespedes in 2012. Jorge Soler, a mere 21-year-old, is a top prospect who will soon be a fixture in the outfield of the Chicago Cubs.

It’s not entirely accidental that so many Cuban players are gravitating towards the big leagues. The New York Times pointed out in August that there are good reasons for it beyond just the money:

Other factors have led to the increase in defections, including continued economic hardship in Cuba and relaxed travel regulations. The visibility of the success of the Cubans in the major leagues has been helped by improved Internet access across Cuba. Cuban players know they can thrive in the majors.

If there is a fluke at play here, maybe it’s in the sudden abundance of MLB-caliber ballplayers popping up in Cuba. Maybe this is just one of those things; random flare-up of natural baseball talent in the Cuban gene pool that won’t last.

Then there’s the alternative, though, which is that this is no fluke at all. Maybe Cuba is just the next modest Caribbean island with a knack for producing star ballplayers, a la the Dominican Republic.

If it is, then what’s been going on in recent years is merely Major League Baseball scraping the tip of the proverbial iceberg. If Cuba’s decision to allow its players to play in foreign leagues impacts scouting like it should and makes it easier for players to defect like it could, then MLB may be about to see the rest of the iceberg come to the surface.

Maybe there will be a pipeline from Cuba straight to Major League Baseball with no strings attached one day. But by the time that day comes, MLB may already be teeming with Cuban talent.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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It’s no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers have four outfielders on their roster who are capable of starting for most teams in the majors. So it makes sense that, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, they’re asking interested teams to make them an offer on either Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp.

Yasiel Puig isn’t going anywhere, although Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angels thinks they should at least consider it. 

Which one of Crawford, Ethier or Kemp they’ll trade depends on several factors. How much of the remaining contract would they have to eat? Which player will net the best return of talent? Which player is the most essential to the team’s success over the next several seasons? 

Here’s a look at each trade candidate as I try to answer these questions and ultimately determine which trade would make the most sense for the Dodgers. 

Trade Carl Crawford?

After a terrible debut season with the Boston Red Sox in 2011 (.694 OPS), Crawford has had his moments over the past two seasons. And at times, he’s looked like the guy who was voted to four All-Star teams and who posted an .803 OPS with an average of 14 homers, 27 doubles, 13 triples, 73 runs batted in, 95 runs and 49 stolen bases per season from 2004-2010 while with the Tampa Bay Rays. 

The problem is that he hasn’t been on the field enough to determine if he’s all the way back. The 32-year-old, who is still due $82.5 million over the next four seasons, missed most of 2012 because of wrist and elbow injuries and then missed time with a hamstring injury in 2013.

When he was on the field, though, he posted a .746 OPS with nine homers, 40 doubles, five triples, 50 runs batted in, 85 runs and 20 stolen bases in 147 games. That’s not quite back to where he was, but it’s pretty solid production.

Crawford’s 13-for-42 performance in the playoffs, which included four homers, has also helped to put his name back on the radar of teams who might be looking for some speed at the top of their order. 

Would a team with a hole in left field and the leadoff spot—the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers could be fits—be willing to take on his contract, which is more than $20 million per season through his age-36 season? Not a chance.

But how much would it be willing to spend, for example, if Crawford was available on the open market and a four-year deal was a requirement? I’m guessing he’d get no more than $40 million over four years. The Dodgers ownership group has deep pockets, but I doubt it’s interested in eating $41 million, not even if a team was willing to throw in a top prospect. That’s not going to happen, by the way.

Teams with a substantial amount of payroll space might be willing to take on a bigger portion of the contract, but the Dodgers would be lucky to get a fringe prospect in return. It would basically be a salary dump, and they’d save around $20-30 million for someone to take on a good chunk of Crawford’s contract. 

The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins, who will reportedly have some spending money this offseason, could be interesting fits if they’re shut out in free agency.

Crawford could be an intriguing fit with the up-and-coming Astros for a couple reasons. First off, he is from Houston and could flourish with a return home. He was also a big part of the Rays organization as it transitioned from a young and inexperienced team with potential to the AL champions a few years later. But it’s hard to see their front office taking him on at this age, even if the contract commitment is cut to four years and $52 million.

Trade Andre Ethier?

As the Dodgers were anticipating the arrival of Puig and a full return to health for Crawford and Kemp sometime in June, a struggling Ethier appeared to be the odd man out in the Dodgers outfield. He just didn’t have any trade value because of his lack of production at the plate—he had a .661 OPS on June 10—and he had a contract that no team in baseball wanted to take on.

But a decision never had to be made. The four outfielders were never active at the same time for very long, mostly due to Kemp’s lingering ankle injury, and Ethier was the team’s best option to play center field regularly in his place. 

Not only did he do a viable job on defense, Ethier’s bat finally got going and he played an integral role in the team’s amazing run that began in mid-June. Over his last 82 games, the 31-year-old posted an .873 OPS with eight homers, 23 doubles and 37 runs batted in. 

In his seven previous big league seasons, all with the Dodgers, Ethier posted an .838 OPS with an average of 18 homers, 33 doubles and 76 runs batted in per season. He was voted to two All-Star teams and was a Gold Glove right fielder in 2011.

His two and a half months of struggles to start the season now appear to be the outlier, and his value has shot back up to the point where several teams would love to have him in their starting lineup. But not at the remaining four years and $71.5 million still due on his contract. 

On the open market, Ethier could probably still land a four-year, $48 million deal. If the Dodgers would eat somewhere between $20-25 million, they could probably net a good (not great) prospect in return.

A team taking on more of the contract, possibly $55-60 million, might be able to acquire him for a much lesser prospect. The Dodgers might be willing to take on much more of the contract, however, if they could net a top prospect.

The New York Mets and Seattle Mariners could be great fits, while the Cincinnati Reds could use him in center field in 2014 and then shift him to a corner outfield spot once Billy Hamilton is ready to take over.  

I can see one of those three teams taking on $48 million of Ethier’s contract and giving up a mid-level prospect in return. 

Trade Matt Kemp?

One of the most remarkable things about the Dodgers’ 62-28 finish to the regular season was that Kemp only logged 72 at-bats during the team’s run. I guess he wasn’t that integral to the team’s success. 

That’s not true, of course.

The Dodgers were without their star center fielder, but just about everything else that needed to go right went right for them. Otherwise, it would’ve been an extremely difficult task to jump back into the pennant race at that stage of the season. 

Typically, not everything will align as it did and a player of Kemp’s immense talent is needed to carry the team through stretches when things aren’t clicking on all cylinders.

Still, it’s at least worth finding out what the Dodgers can get for him in a trade, because you just never know if a team is willing to make an offer that general manager Ned Colletti cannot refuse. 

If a team is willing to take on most, if not all, of the six years and $128 million remaining on Kemp’s contract and offer a package that includes two top prospects and an infielder or starting pitcher that can fill a hole on the 2014 roster, it might be hard for the Dodgers to say no. 

Otherwise, you don’t give up a five-tool player who was second in MVP voting in 2011 after posting a .986 OPS with 39 homers, 126 runs batted in and 40 stolen bases and who was having another huge season in 2012 before injuries finally slowed him down late in the season.

At 29 years of age, Kemp should have plenty of terrific seasons ahead of him if he can avoid the injury bug. Despite his injury-plagued 2013 season, it wouldn’t have been a surprise if he was able to land a six-year, $120 million deal had he been a free agent this offseason. 

Thus, his contract shouldn’t be as much of an issue for teams as those of Crawford and Ethier would be. The Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Reds, Mets, New York Yankees, Mariners and Rangers could all have interest in trading for Kemp and his entire contract. The bigger issue would be the trade package necessary. 

Would the Cubs be willing to give up two of Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler? Probably not.

Do the White Sox even have a prospect that’s good enough to headline a trade package? No. Would they be willing to give up ace left-hander Chris Sale and two of their better prospects to acquire Kemp? If they thought they could land one of the top free-agent starters to replace Sale, maybe they would.

Would the Mets part with Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud? Doubtful. 

If the Rangers gave up Jurickson Profar, who’d fill the starting shortstop role with Hanley Ramirez shifting over to third base, and two of their best prospects, would that be enough for the Dodgers? Possibly. 

My guess is that Kemp is still highly coveted and Colletti will have his hands full going through trade proposals over the next several weeks. 

Conclusion

Trade Kemp? No.

Clearing $128 million in future salary while filling a hole on the major league roster and replenishing the farm system is tempting. But players like Matt Kemp don’t come along very often. If he returns to full health, the Dodgers will regret trading him. 

Trade Crawford? No.

While Colletti isn’t likely to lose much sleep by trading him after just one season as a Dodger, he’ll be kicking himself for sending him elsewhere when his value was so low. A productive season without any stints on the disabled list and Crawford’s value could reach the point where the team could actually get a solid return and wouldn’t have to pick up as much of the remaining salary next offseason.

Trade Ethier? Yes! 

If all four outfielders were to return in 2014, it’s Ethier who would likely be on the bench more often than not. Since this isn’t good for his value, Colletti would be smart to trade him now after his strong finish and be happy if a team takes on $48 million of his remaining salary and offers him a mid-level prospect in return.

The outfield picture would clear up, and he’d likely have some more payroll space to work with as he tries to fill holes in the rotation and the left side of the infield this offseason. This is the smart move.    

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There are no proven No. 1 starting pitchers on MLB‘s free-agent market this year. Too many are signing extensions these days. Others, presumably, have simply migrated to warmer climates.

What the market does boast is a solid collection of No. 2 and No. 3 starters who can be had at fair prices. And if there’s one guy who’s likely to be had at a fairer price than anyone, it’s Ricky Nolasco.

Nolasco, who spent 2013 with the Miami Marlins and the Los Angeles Dodgers, is certainly more of a No. 3 than a No. 2. And while he’s not old, that he’ll turn 31 in December means he’s not young either.These are key reasons why Nolasco’s not projected to get a huge payday.

 Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com projects a four-year, $50 million deal worth an average of $12.5 million for Nolasco, while Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com projects three years and $36 million, an average of $12 million per season.

It’s doubtful that Nolasco will end up doing better than the $12-13 million-per-year range, but he is better than that. He is better than that now, and he will very likely be better than that in the future, too.

How do we know Nolasco is better than that now? Well, FanGraphs has a handy-dandy system that converts WAR into free-agent dollars, and what their system says is that Nolasco was worth $15.2 million in 2013. And ever since 2008, he’s been worth an average of $14.3 million.

For a guy with a 4.30 ERA over the last six seasons, that might come off as a bit excessive. But there are reasons why Nolasco has been worth that much, starting with his ability to eat innings.

Nolasco has pitched 1,151.1 innings over the last six years. Per Baseball-Reference.com, that ranks 24th among all pitchers. He’s averaged at least six innings per start each year.

In and of itself, an ability to eat innings like that is a valuable commodity, especially in a day and age when everyone is on a pitch count and bullpens are being tasked with picking up more slack. To this end, Nolasco is a member of the upper echelon.

Beyond that, he’s a pretty good pitcher—certainly better than his 4.30 ERA over the last six seasons says he is. In fact, he’s basically Hiroki Kuroda.

That’s what the numbers say, anyway. Courtesy of FanGraphs, here are said numbers:

The only difference between Kuroda, who could make as much as $15 or $16 million in 2014 if he decides to come back, and Nolasco over the last six years is that the former has had a much lower ERA. However, categories such as WAR, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all say that’s misleading.

If you don’t know what those last three are, well, those are ERA estimators. Their function is to take luck and other things beyond a pitcher’s control out of the equation and tell you how well he actually pitched.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) does it by focusing on strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and home runs. The xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) metric is similar, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many homers he should have allowed. SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) is complicated, but what makes it different is that it analyzes batted balls in more depth.

A major reason why these stats like Nolasco more than his ERA would indicate is because of his command. He’s walked only 5.3 percent of the batters he’s faced over the last six seasons, which places him fourth among starters with at least 1,000 innings pitched.

Nolasco is a classic case of a guy who doesn’t hurt himself with free passes and, at the same time, he is an example of how perilous balls in play can be. That’s the larger message sent by FIP, xFIP and SIERA regarding Nolasco’s six-year run, and it’s something that’s been a sort of annual narrative for him.

Behold:

The ERA estimators say that Nolasco got an ERA he deserved in 2008. But from 2009 to 2012, his ERAs were consistently worse than he deserved. The only year there was a close agreement between the estimators and ERA was 2012, when xFIP and SIERA deemed Nolasco worthy of his 4.00-plus ERA.

Playing into that was Nolasco’s severe inability to miss bats. He struck out only 15 percent of the batters he faced in 2012. He also got beat up on balls in play once again, but xFIP and SIERA didn’t give him a pass this time, largely because there were too many balls in play going on.

And therein lies a big explanation for why Nolasco’s luck finally changed for the better in 2013.

For the first time since 2008, Nolasco ended up with a sub-4.00 ERA in 2013 that the ERA estimators say he actually deserved. And he deserved it in large part because he started missing bats again.

Like so:

The league average swinging-strike rate for starting pitchers in 2013 was 8.7 percent. The league-average strikeout rate for starters was 18.9 percent. Nolasco was safely above both, and it was no fluke.

If you head over to Brooks Baseball, you can see how Nolasco got more whiffs on pitches outside the strike zone than ever before. Also, you can see that his slider and splitter reached a common new height in the whiffs per swing department.

These two things just so happen to be related.

Because we’re still working on getting the green light from Brooks Baseball and Baseball Prospectus, I have to refrain from posting a couple images from Brooks Baseball that I want you to look at. But I can direct you over there to see for yourself, so I’ll do that.

If you check out where Nolasco was throwing his slider and splitter from 2007 to 2012, you’ll see some warmness inside the strike zone. If you check out what things were like in 2013, however, you’ll see less warmness inside the strike zone.

And that’s good. Sliders and splitters are pitches largely designed to get hitters to expand the strike zone. It’s hard for a pitcher to be successful when he’s throwing sliders and splitters in the strike zone consistently. Nolasco stopped doing that in 2013, and it worked.

That Nolasco sought to make an adjustment like that fits with what he’s been busy doing over the last few seasons. He’s been doing a lot of experimenting recently.

One thing FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noticed is that Nolasco has changed his positioning on the rubber, a subtle change that seems to have paid off.

A less subtle change is what’s happened with Nolasco’s repertoire. With more data courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here’s how Nolasco has changed over the last few years:

Nolasco used to be a fastball-slider guy who occasionally mixed in a slow curveball. He’s now a five-pitch pitcher, as he’s developed a sinker to go along with his four-seamer and has put more trust in his splitter. 

Nolasco’s sinker has been a key pitch in his transition. He used to be an extreme fly-ball pitcher,but over the last three seasons, his ground-ball rate has been at least 43 percent each year. That’s his sinker at work, as it’s induced more ground balls than any of his pitches since 2011.

The diversity of Nolasco’s repertoire is an advantage that he has over other free-agent starters in line for multi-year deals. Ervin Santana is a fastball-slider guy. Matt Garza is a also fastball-slider guy. Ubaldo Jimenez dabbles in many different pitches, but he’s basically a fastball-slider guy as well.

What one worries about with these guys is what will become of them if age starts to bring their fastball velocity closer to or even below league average. They’ll suddenly find it harder to overpower hitters, and that’s when they’ll be needing more go-to pitches.

This concern doesn’t apply to Nolasco. FanGraphs has his average velocity over the last three seasons at just above 90 miles per hour, which is already below the league average for starters. It doesn’t strike me as a coincidence that we’re talking about the same three-year period in which he’s been active adjusting his pitching style.

He’s become what we call “crafty.” And the best thing about “crafty,” friends, is that it doesn’t age.

Thus concludes this treatise on Ricky Nolasco. Whoever signs him will be getting a pitcher who can eat innings, is undervalued thanks to his fluky showings in the ERA department, and whose renovated pitching style makes him a candidate to age well.

A general manager who’s looking for a top-of-the-rotation guy shouldn’t get the wrong idea. A general manager who wants to get some good bang for his buck, however, should put in a call to Nolasco’s people.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Martin Perez is just the latest.

On Thursday, the Texas Rangers gave the 22-year-old left-hander—who has all of 26 starts in the majors—a contract extension worth $12.5 million over the next four years, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

As is standard operating procedure when locking up young starting pitchers long term, the deal includes option years—in this case, three of them. If all of those are exercised, the deal would cover the first two years of Perez’s free agency and push the total value to $36 million over seven seasons all told, per Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors.

We’re seeing this sort of thing—teams going out of their way to make sure their pitchers remain their pitchers—all the time now in baseball. The length and dollars involved in these deals vary widely, depending on all sorts of factors, including the hurler’s age, service time, proximity to free agency and, of course, performance. But it’s no secret that the top pitchers are sticking with their teams more and more, which means they’re reaching free agency less and less.

To wit, here are starters who have inked multi-year extensions over the past three offseasons, in chronological order, with an assist from the handy dandy extension tracker tool at MLB Trade Rumors:

All in all, that’s 35 pitchers who have signed extensions with their teams since November 2010. Put another way: On average, more than 10 starters have done so in each of the past three years.

Now, some of these were deals done to lock up youngsters with limited service time (a la Perez or the Tampa Bay Rays’ Matt Moore), which helped teams secure cost certainty going forward as opposed to enduring the unsettling arbitration years.

Others pacts were done a little later in the process, and thus cost the teams tens of millions more because success comes with a higher price tag (think: Gio Gonzalez of the Washington Nationals and Chad Billingsley of the Los Angeles Dodgers). And still other extensions—the biggest ones listed above—came when the pitchers were four or five years in and nearing free agency, like Matt Cain with the San Francisco Giants, Cole Hamels with the Philadelphia Phillies and Felix Hernandez with the Seattle Mariners.

Those variables explain why the numbers are so different from deal to deal. It also proves that the gamble on youth and upside can be a beautiful thing for the team when a pitcher’s talent and stuff all come together.

Because, really, to have Madison Bumgarner at a guaranteed $34 million for the next four years—and potentially at $58 million through 2019—is the sort of thing that would make any general manager feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

For GMs, the point to this strategy, of course, is to keep what’s yours when you think it’s worthwhile. Not every extension above has turned out to be a good decision (cough, John Danks, cough), but the lesson is that it’s often much, much more financially beneficial to go all-in early enough if you like and believe in the product on the mound.

Otherwise, prices escalate rapidly and exponentially, and most clubs just can’t afford to pay such a premium. That’s where the other option comes into play—trades.

Yes, in addition to all of those contracts pointed out, there have been plenty of starting pitchers who have been traded dating back to three offseasons ago. Here’s a look at some of the biggest names to change teams via trade over the same time period (since November 2010), again courtesy of MLB Trade Rumor’s transaction tracker tool:

This second list isn’t comprehensive like the first, but it provides a pretty full picture of some of the better arms that have been dealt.

Many of these starters were swapped for one of two reasons: Either they were never locked up and eventually started to become too pricey for their teams via arbitration and the inevitability of free agency (read: Anibal Sanchez and Matt Garza), which meant they needed to be moved before it was too late; or they still had plenty of years remaining of team control at a reasonable price and were moved because of that value, like Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos and James Shields.

The flip side, obviously, is that teams are less likely to even consider trading their stud starters when they’re already signed to team-friendly contracts that will carry them through a portion of their free-agent years.

To bring both transaction types together—that is, extensions and trades—a club that acquires such a pitcher in a deal always has the option to—that’s right—sign him to an extension, thus ensuring that he won’t be made available to the other 29 teams until that club so chooses. That happened, for instance, with Gonzalez, who signed on after he was traded to the Nationals.

This particular trade-then-extend approach is the subject of rampant rumors and speculation surrounding top arms Max Scherzer and David Price, both of whom have been mentioned as potential chips for the Rays and Tigers to play, at some point. Undoubtedly, if either one is traded, the acquiring club will be aiming to ink a multi-year extension to prevent them from becoming free agents after 2014 and 2015, respectively.

So why has this lock-em-up strategy become so trendy?

Simply put: Pitching is always in high demand, whether via free agency or trade, so teams have recognized the benefits to hanging on to their top arms, especially early on.

If a pitcher becomes too pricey or gets overtaken by better and/or cheaper hurlers on the depth chart, the worst-case scenario is that the team can still trade him for a nice return, health provided, because that market never goes away.

This whole concept is not unlike the comparison between renting property and buying property. When you rent year to year, you may well be in flux and looking around for the next place, hoping it’s affordable and livable. But then, other renters are doing the same thing, so it becomes a struggle to try to time things just right and find a place you like. That’s what can happen when a team doesn’t sign a worthy starter for the long haul.

Buying a place, though, at least offers some security, some equity—some value. There’s no rush to move or shop around, but if something better comes along, well, you can certainly always consider it. There’s also more cost certainty, because you know how much you’re paying each month, as opposed to renting, where prices can jump from year to year or from location to location. And most importantly, the property has value to others, meaning you can expect a return if you put it out on the market, which isn’t applicable when renting.

That might not be a perfect metaphor, but it fits in some ways.

The point of all this? It’s become much more difficult for all but the very richest clubs to rely on free agency to add even one big-name, big-money starter, let alone build a rotation by adding two or three in one fell swoop.

The supply just isn’t there like it was five or 10 years ago, before this started becoming a widespread trend. That, of course, makes the demand even higher, which in turn, drives the price up on the handful of mid- or top-of-the-rotation pitchers who actually do reach the open market in a given offseason.

And that makes it all the more important for teams not to whiff when they do fork over $50 million or $100 million or $150 million, depending on their budget, to land a top-of-the-line starter or even an innings-eating type.

The gamble at that point isn’t only financial, either. Pitchers that are getting to free agency are often a big risk from a performance and health standpoint, too. That’s because they’ve already accumulated hundreds and hundreds of innings while pitching through what in all likelihood are their prime seasons.

To bring this back full circle to the 2014 free-agent class, consider the names out there who fit the bill this winter. Aside from Garza, there’s Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and that’s about it as far as above-average arms that should have a handful of seasons left.

Now, here are a few names that could have been available this offseason or last, had they not re-upped with their teams along the way: Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto, James Shields and Yovani Gallardo. A strong case could be made that each of those starting pitchers would be the top option on the market, but that’s a free-agent class we’ll never get to see.

When it comes to locking up pitchers long term, there are always going to be hits and misses, especially given the volatile nature and injury issues that come with throwing baseballs thousands of times a year at uncanny velocity. But this is a trend that is proving to be worth it more often than not, and it’s not going away. Expecting to be able to turn to free agency to build or augment a rotation is expecting an approach from the past.

Martin Perez is just the latest example of the present and future. And he’s certainly not going to be the last.

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You may be ready for the offseason, but there will be several moves that will catch you and every other baseball fan by surprise between now and the next few months.

Not all free-agent signings will be as obvious as Zack Greinke, the top free-agent pitcher of last offseason, going to the team with the most money to spend, the Dodgers. And the trades that appear to make the most sense almost never happen. But that’s why we pay such close attention during the four months of the year (November through February) when Major League Baseball isn’t even being played.

It’s a safe assumption that at least two or three big moves will seemingly come out of nowhere this winter. So before things begin to heat up, I’m going to predict five potential moves that probably would have caught you by surprise had you not read it here first.  

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