Kuzul

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, and one way or another, he’s going to be paid as such soon. Just ask his team’s owner.

The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander had a season for the ages in 2013, leading the majors for the third straight year with a 1.83 ERA and topping the National League in strikeouts for the second time in three seasons. After winning this year’s Players Choice Award as the NL’s Outstanding Pitcher on Monday, it’s a mere formality that Kershaw will be taking home his second Cy Young Award this month.

He’s done all of this, by the way, at the tender age of 25.

And yet, Kershaw is now less than 12 months from reaching free agency after the 2014 season. At that point, all 30 teams would be able to bid on the top arm in baseball, who not only is among the most decorated and accomplished pitchers in the game, but also smack dab in the middle of his prime.

No wonder he’s intrigued by the possibilities.

“I think [for] any player, that’s the reward of baseball, to make it to that point,” Kershaw said of the prospect of reaching free agency, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “I think any player gets curious when you get close, for sure.”

From a business standpoint, that’s a smart line from a guy who has a heck of a lot of leverage at the moment, even if he did let this slip to Hernandez about the city of Los Angeles: “I love it here.”

You see, in addition to all of the awards and accolades and his pending free agency, Kershaw has even more stacked in his corner.

For one, Dodgers part owner Magic Johnson told Buster Olney of ESPN (via Cork Gaines of Business Insider) before Opening Day that Kershaw is an invaluable asset to any team:

He’s our Sandy Koufax of today. That’s how important he is. We feel he is the best pitcher in all of baseball. And when you are the best, you gotta be paid the best. We understand that.

To put things in context, the largest contract ever given to a pitcher belongs to Justin Verlander of the Tigers, who signed a seven-year, $180 million contract last March that could turn into an eight-year, $202 million deal if he finishes among the top five in the 2019 Cy Young Award voting.

That contract topped the seven-year, $175 million deal signed a little more than a month earlier by Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez.

The largest amount ever handed out to a left-hander? Well, that goes to CC Sabathia, who landed $161 million over seven years from the New York Yankees after the 2008 season.

There’s also the fact that the Dodgers tried to do just what Johnson said—pay Kershaw like he’s the best pitcher around.

Kershaw had a contract worth upward of $300 million presented to him over the summer, according to an October report by Olney in ESPN The Magazine. And yet, the deal was never completed, with Kershaw apparently hesitant over the length of such a commitment and reluctant to negotiate during the season.

Whatever the reason, it’s a bit worrisome—for both sides—that such a massive number wasn’t able to get it done right then and there, no?

From the Dodgers’ point of view, if $300 million was actually on the table, what more could Kershaw want? From the pitcher’s perspective, it would be foolish to have walked away from an amount that could have made him the highest-paid hurler—and player—in baseball history.

In the end, this could wind up being one costly game of chicken if the Dodgers have to raise the bar they’ve already set, or if Kershaw has any performance- or health-related struggles in 2014.

But Kershaw is the one with most of the power here, given how well he’s pitched and how close he is to hitting the market. The Dodgers, who will more than likely have baseball’s biggest-ever payroll next season, even if they don’t lock him up long term. might actually not be able to afford something for once—in this case, calling the curious Kershaw‘s let’s-play-the-free-agency-game bluff.

To be clear, no one is blaming either side for this reported proposed deal not already being done, since it’s not often that teams or players put finances at the forefront during the season. But now that the offseason has begun, the clock is ticking and the Dodgers would be wise to hammer things out if, in fact, they want to keep Kershaw in Los Angeles for, oh, the next decade, as opposed to only one more year.

The alternative, of course, is to give 29 other teams a chance to talk to Kershaw, which would only drive up a price that is already astronomical.

“We already know we’ve got to give him a lot of money,” Johnson said in October, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. “What’s a few more zeroes?”

A few more zeroes are enough to potentially prevent Kershaw‘s curiosity from getting the best of the Dodgers.

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When it comes to the top MLB free agents on the market, the high asking prices will limit the number of teams with a realistic chance of signing them. But it doesn’t mean that they won’t have a good number of options to choose from.

The ultimate choice will often come down to the team offering the most money, although it’s not out of the question for a player to leave a few million dollars on the table to sign with a team that they feel more comfortable with for other reasons.

How much money a player is offered, however, certainly factors in heavily when finding the perfect match. So if team A meets the criteria in four of five categories that a particular player is looking for in a team and that fifth category is money, then we can conclude that the team is probably not a good match for the player.

In fact, even if no other team in the league can meet all five, or maybe not even three or four of the categories, that team that cannot come close to the asking price is still not going to be in the running. It weighs much heavier than the other factors involved.

With that said, here are the five categories, in order of importance, that will likely factor into a top free agent’s search for a team this offseason.

1. Money
2. Chance to win (players who have already won a World Series title or players 30 of age or younger could be more willing to sign with a rebuilding team with a bright future, such as Houston, as opposed to a team built to win now)
3. Familiarity with players, coaching staff, front office execs
4. Location (some players prefer to sign long-term deals with teams who play in or near their hometown)
5. Role on team (not as much of an issue with the top free agents but some may prefer to be the staff “ace” or the No. 3 hitter while that role might already be occupied on an interested team)

Using these five categories and my free-agent rankings at MLBDepthCharts, let’s examine which teams could be the perfect match for the top 10 free agents on the board.

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It was a two-strike splitter from Koji Uehara to Matt Carpenter that did the trick on Wednesday night. Carpenter swung and missed for the final out of Game 6 of the 2013 World Series, giving the Boston Red Sox their third title since 2004.

As for the 38,447 people crammed into Fenway Park, well, they did what fans taking in a sight that hadn’t been seen in 95 years would do. They went bonkers.

Outside of Fenway Park, meanwhile, the game was being watched on almost 90 percent of the television sets that were on in Boston. Which, believe it or not, is an actual fact:

On Saturday, there will be another, much larger number that will tie Red Sox fans to the Olde Towne. Ian Browne of MLB.com says that millions are expected to show up for the Red Sox’s victory parade through the city and on the Charles River, which gets rolling at 10 a.m. local time.

Between Game 6’s attendance, the percentage of TVs in Boston showing it and the amount of people expected to turn up to Saturday’s grand shindig, what we have here is a case where, yeah, the numbers agree wholeheartedly with the conventional wisdom about the city the Red Sox call home.

They’re crazy about baseball in Boston, and man-oh-man do they love their Red Sox.

Yeah, yeah. It’s easy to gush about the love that a particular city has for a particular team whenever it wins a particular championship. No title has ever been won to the tune of halfhearted clapping and Huzzah-ing from the hometown fans, nor will any title ever be won that way.

But it really is different in Boston. Baseball means something in Boston. The Red Sox mean something in Boston.

And for the first time in a while, what the Red Sox’s place in Boston is was as clear as day in 2013.

Boston and the greater New England area are not lacking for sports options. There are the Boston Bruins, Boston Celtics and New England Patriots, all three of whom have won championships recently.

Baseball, however, was there first.

When the National League was founded in 1876, there were the Boston Red Stockings. A quarter of a century later, there was the American League and the Boston Americans. Six years later, they were the Boston Red Sox. 

More than a century later, they’re still the Boston Red Sox. Boston has been a baseball town for almost 140 years, and the Red Sox have been a fixture for over 100 of those. Mind you, they also play at baseball’s oldest ballpark.

That the entire Red Sox operation comes off as being about as old as Father Time makes it a good fit for its surroundings. Boston was founded in the 1600s, and you’d never know from the way the road system works that a couple centuries have passed. Step into Boston, and you feel an inescapable sense of the way things used to be mixed with the way things have always been.

The Red Sox are a part of that sense. They’re so much a part of Boston and New England at large that it’s hard to fathom a time when they weren’t there.

Heck, the Red Sox are so ingrained in the fabric of the region that they feature prominently in a decidedly New England holiday. The Boston Marathon and the Red Sox at Fenway Park are two things New Englanders can always look forward to seeing on Patriots’ Day.

That the franchise itself is old, traditional and what-have-you isn’t all there is to it, though. Old, traditional things can be easily ignored, but Red Sox fanhood is traditional in its own way. There’s one notion that says Red Sox fanhood jells with values that predate even Fenway Park by a few centuries.

As Martin F. Nolan of The Boston Globe (subscription required) put it a few years back: “The Red Sox have supposedly been New England’s team because they have met the low expectations of a Calvinist climate that toughened the Pilgrims and those who followed.”

That’s one way to put it. One thing that’s for sure is that it didn’t happen by accident.

We all know our history, yes? The Red Sox didn’t win a single World Series championship between 1919 and 2003. They came close here and there, but they found ways to break hearts each time.

Enduring the year-in, year-out disappointment was a requirement of being a Red Sox fan. They were there to break your heart, and it was one’s duty to keep coming back and asking for more. And even when the punch didn’t appear to be coming, you had to expect it would come eventually.

For most teams, being a fan means having a fun. Being a Red Sox fan meant learning how to enjoy misery. As The Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy put it back in 1990: “To be a Sox fan is to suffer.”

It was a shared experience, though, and that was the beauty of it.

“Flinty New Englanders wore their suffering as a badge of honor,” wrote Corey McCall in The Red Sox and Philosophy, “and always bore it with a stuff upper lip. Suffering went with the territory—if you were unlucky enough to be a Red Sox fan, then of course you suffered.”

For a long time, this is what the Red Sox meant to the city of Boston. They existed to make everyone suffer, sure, but they made everyone suffer together. It could be brutal but, you know, tradition. 

And besides, there was always the great tease that the Red Sox would win it all one day, ending everyone’s suffering and kicking off a party decades in the making. That tease was worth coming back for every year.

The Dropkick Murphys hit the nail on the head in their song “Tessie” when they sing: “Don’t blame us if we ever doubt ya, you know we couldn’t live without ya.”

But then came the one year when the Red Sox finally overcame the doubts: 2004.

You just watched the final out of the 2004 World Series, the one that killed the Curse of the Bambino and gave Red Sox fans a feeling of bliss unlike anything they’d ever felt. 

“I’ve been watching this team for more than 40 years. It’s been years of frustration, but it’s all worth it now,” said one 82-year-old fan on the day of the victory parade, via USA Today.

He spoke for all Red Sox fans at the time. Old. Middle-aged. Young. Whatever. The 2004 World Series felt like the fulfillment of a prophecy that was never actually supposed to be fulfilled. Given that it was something 86 years in the making, nobody needed to be told to rejoice.

Inevitably, however, the identity crisis was going to come.

“New England, where baseball is king, will never be the same,” wrote The Globe‘s Thomas Farragher. “A region so used to fretting, frustration, and second-guessing is going to need to rethink what it now means to be a Red Sox fan.”

And for a time, what it meant to be a Red Sox fan did change.

The Red Sox made the playoffs again in 2005, won it all again in 2007, came to within an out of the World Series in 2008 and went back to the playoffs in 2009. The organization’s response to missing out on the playoffs in 2010 was to attempt to build a superteam for the 2011 season. After so many years of failure, failure suddenly wasn’t an option.

Red Sox fans shouldn’t have taken any of this for granted, but they did. Rather than being characterized by a feeling of suffering, they found themselves characterized by a feeling of entitlement. They had become the enemy.

As David Margolick of The New York Times put it in 2010: “Creeping Yankeeosis has spread to Red Sox Nation. There is the same petulance, the same arrogance, the same intolerance for imperfection, the same obnoxious impatience.”

But then 2011 happened. What was supposed to be a great season turned out to be a disastrous one when the Red Sox went 7-20 in September to miss out on what seemed like a sure playoff spot. It was exactly the kind of choke job that Red Sox fans had been used to in the old days.

Then came the 93-loss campaign of 2012. It was a disaster from start to finish and served as one big exclamation point for the previous season’s collapse.

Together, the collapse of 2011 and the disaster of 2012 served as a shot of humility for a fanbase that needed one. First for one month and then for a full season, Red Sox fans were made to suffer again.

Like that, Red Sox Nation had every reason to doubt its beloved team heading into 2013. It was on the Red Sox to do something to remind their fans, as the Dropkick Murphys sing, they can’t live without ’em.

They did that in more ways than one.

The Red Sox were remade in the 2012-2013 offseason, but the experts didn’t buy it. As The Globe‘s Chad Finn pointed out, only nine out of 134 experts from various big-ticket publications picked them to be in the postseason at the end of the 2013 season.

As silly as it feels to say it now in light of what just happened on Wednesday night—not to mention in light of the club’s $150 million-plus payroll—the Red Sox were an underdog again. 

It didn’t take long for the 2013 Red Sox to establish themselves as an underdog worth pulling for, as they were a very good team and a very likable team early on in the season. Quite the turnaround from the Red Sox of 2011 and 2012, who were both inconsistent and about as endearing as a pet howler monkey.

The Red Sox’s biggest challenge, however, was presented to them after the Boston Marathon bombings on Patriots’ Day. Though baseball was really beside the point, the Red Sox made it their mission to help in any way they could.

The Red Sox obviously served as a welcome distraction between the lines, winning 97 games in the regular season before charging through the postseason. But Red Sox players also did whatever they could beyond the lines.

And all season long, Red Sox players preached “Boston Strong” so passionately that it became hard to separate the team from the phrase itself; indeed, there’s the Red Sox “B” in the “Boston Strong” logo.

“For the lack of a better description, they get it,” said Red Sox manager John Farrell of his players after the World Series was won, via The Globe.

What exactly is “it,” you ask? 

Easy. They would have played good baseball regardless given the kind of talent they had at their disposal, but what the 2013 team embraced—perhaps like no Red Sox team before it had ever done—is that Red Sox baseball is no mere sideshow in Boston. It’s a way of life.

This way of life was celebrated on Wednesday night when the Red Sox clinched the World Series at Fenway Park for the first time since 1918. It will be celebrated again during Saturday’s parade.

And then it will live on. 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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For the past year-and-a-half, money has been more or less no object for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Freed from the confinement and embarrassment that had come to be under previous owner Frank McCourt, the Dodgers and their new ownership, headed by Magic Johnson and the Guggenheim Partners, have once again established themselves as a big-market franchise that has been—and will continue to be—major players when it comes to player acquisitions.

It would be great to be able to put an exact figure on the amount that has been spent since the regime change, but then again, it’s hard to even count that high. Here’s one figure, from Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal:

Since [the new ownership group purchased the organization for $2.15 billion in May 2012], the Dodgers have taken on more than $600 million in long-term salary commitments and replaced the New York Yankees as the sport’s dominant financial power.

Here’s another number: The club’s 2013 payroll was about $217 million, second-most in Major League Baseball, according to USA Today‘s salary database. While the Yankees’ $228 million payroll was actually slightly higher—by only about, oh, $10 million or so—the Dodgers’ was more than twice as much as the amount they spent on player contracts in 2012. That kind of year-over-year jump is simply unprecedented at that scale.

Such splurging was made possible by the new owners, as well as a massive television deal that could bring the team as much as $6 billion in the end, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

“We needed to invigorate the club,” Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti told Costa. “We needed to invigorate the city. We needed to get a little bit of our reputation back, and we needed to act quickly.”

Mission accomplished.

But what do the Dodgers do for an offseason encore now that the winter is here? Well, there’s more money to be spent, both on bringing in new free agents and locking up their own players long-term.

Let’s start with the latter avenue. Many of the players already under contract are signed for multiple seasons, but the club’s best hitter and pitcher aren’t among them.

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez, the team’s offensive MVP while hitting .345/.402/.638 with 25 doubles and 20 homers in only 86 games during an injury-riddled 2013, is inked through 2014, but that’s it. Both Ramirez and the team, though, have indicated an extension is a possibility.

Ace left-hander Clayton Kershaw, soon-to-be Cy Young winner for the second time in three years, is under team control through next season only, too. In Kershaw‘s case, there have been reports that the two sides have been trying to work toward a monster deal, perhaps even upward of $300 million.

Making sure those two stars stick around is more important to the Dodgers’ future than bringing in new blood via free agency, but doing so would mean at least $20 million a year for Ramirez and at least $25 million per for Kershaw. That’s tacking on $45-$50 million more per season to a roster that already has approximately $160 million on the books for 2014, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts via Baseball Prospectus.

If we can be so bold as to have those deals completed this offseason, that would bring the Dodgers’ payroll for next year right around where they were this year. And that’s not counting new signings, trades and raises via arbitration and performance bonuses, among other monetary obligations and roster additions.

Sure, the Dodgers can shed some salary, too. In fact, they already have by declining the options for second baseman Mark Ellis and left-hander Chris Capuano, which were $5.75 million and $8 million, respectively, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. The buyouts were for $1 million each.

In his story, Hernandez points out that newly signed Cuban import Alexander Guerrero, who inked for $28 million over four years, is expected to be in line to take over the second base job. Capuano, meanwhile, was deemed expendable because, as Hernandez notes:

The Dodgers have five starting pitchers under control for next season: Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett. Billingsley and Beckett are recovering from major operations, but the Dodgers are expected to attempt to re-sign Ricky Nolasco and pursue Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka.

The 25-year-old Tanaka, who went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, is not a free agent, but his Japanese club is expected to post him this winter, giving all 30 MLB teams the opportunity to bid for exclusive rights to negotiate with him.

To that end, Steve Dilbeck, also of the Times, points out the following:

The fact that [the Dodgers] gambled on Hyun-Jin Ryu ($36 million) and Yasiel Puig ($42 million) last year and won, only figures to encourage their international efforts. They’ve already spent on Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero ($28 million) this off-season.

And now comes the next latest, greatest thing in Tanaka.

Whether it’s landing Tanaka, re-signing Nolasco or hooking any number of other enticing, pricey free agents is pretty much a fait accompli for the Dodgers. Certainly, they can’t afford every big name, but there are millions more to be spent. It’s not a matter of if, but when.

L.A.’s payroll is bound to bump again next year, but what was a financial blastoff last winter likely will be merely another step or two up this time around. Maybe the number reaches into the $230-$250 million range, depending on how the Ramirez and Kershaw negotiations play out. That still would be the highest ever in MLB history, surpassing the Yankees, who may—or may not—be going a bit more cost-conscious this winter.

Regardless, this Dodgers team doesn’t need a heck of a lot more help, considering 2013 ended with a trip all the way to the National League Championship Series even after the club was floundering for the first two months of the season. No wonder they’re the odds-on favorite for next year’s World Series.

They could use a key piece here, an under-the-radar addition there, with the most pressing needs being at third base, in the middle of the rotation and the back of the bullpen. But the roster is chock full of stars who are in their prime—if they’re even there yet.

And that just might be what prevents the Dodgers’ payroll next season and beyond from making even the New York Yankees look like cheapskates. No amount of money can buy another roster spot, so the Dodgers will have to work with 25 players.

When it comes to spending, that may be the one way they’re just like every other team.

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We can make all the predictions we want about the upcoming offseason. But the reality of the prediction business is that each time a move is made that comes out of left field, a lot of the thinking that went into the remaining predictions can go right out the window.

And trust me on this one. There will be signings and trades that no one predicted. Mystery teams are very real. Teams that no one have discussed as being a suitor for a particular free agent will sign that free agent. Players that haven’t been reported as being on the trade block will be traded. 

An unexpected trade will, in turn, force a team to go in a different direction to fill a void and target players not originally thought to be fits. A starting pitcher will sign with a team that already had five good starters, opening up another trade possibility for a team that might be seeking help on the free-agent market.

A team filling a need via trade could mean that there is one less bidder for a free agent, which could even limit the player’s asking price. As a result, a team that didn’t think they could afford that player could swoop in at the last minute and strike a deal. 

With that said, here are a few different timelines of predictions which take into account the changes in the market that will occur with each major free-agent signing or trade at a particular position. 

Right-Handed Power

The first two weeks of the free-agent signing period normally don’t include many big names changing teams, and this year will be no exception. There will be several free agents coming off the board, though, after re-signing with their current teams. 

The most notable moves having the biggest effect on the the market early on will be the Red Sox inking first baseman Mike Napoli to a two-year, $30 million deal and the Pirates bringing back outfielder Marlon Byrd on a two-year, $16 million deal. 

With Byrd and Napoli off the board early in free agency, teams desperate for a right-handed middle-of-the-order bat will zone in on Nelson Cruz. With the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Rangers very likely the top three suitors for the 33-year-old, and the Royals, Mets and Giants also possibilities, the ensuing bidding war will push the price tag to four years and $60 million.

The winner (or loser, depending on how you view Cruz (pictured) at $15 million per season for his ages 33-36 seasons a year after he was suspended 50 games for PED use) will be the Phillies, who are seeking a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder to balance out a lefty-heavy lineup. It’s a risky signing ,but the lineup is actually very good on paper. 

1 Ben Revere, CF
2 Jimmy Rollins, SS
3 Chase Utley, 2B
4 Ryan Howard, 1B
5 Nelson Cruz, RF
6 Domonic Brown, LF
7 Cody Asche, 3B
8 TBD, C

With Cruz’s big deal, Corey Hart will likely scrap any plans to re-sign with the Brewers at a discounted rate, as he’s expressed interest in doing. The Rangers, who could utilize him at first base and the designated hitter spot as he returns from multiple knee surgeries that forced him to miss all of 2013, could be an excellent fit. 

The Masahiro Tanaka Effect

As pointed out by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the uncertainty surrounding Tanaka (pictured), specifically the potential changes that are being discussed to the posting system, could push back the process that will determine which team wins negotiating rights with the 25-year-old star out of Japan.

Hyun-Jun Ryu and Yu Darvish were each posted in December of the past two offseasons, respectively, and were signed to deals in January. With several teams expected to be in the mix for Tanaka, who several front office executives and agents told Passan they believe will cost more than Darvish—his combined posting fee and contract cost the Rangers over $110 million over six years—the market for the top starting pitchers could also move at a snail’s pace. 

If Ervin Santana and his agent, for example, aren’t getting the free-agent bids they are hoping for, they’ll simply wait until the Tanaka posting is complete in the hopes that the teams that lose out will re-focus their attention back to him.

Of course, teams that either aren’t interested in Tanaka or have the financial resources to acquire both of the top two starting pitchers could try to lock up Santana, Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez early in the offseason.

Since it’s unlikely that any team will dish out the $200 million it would take to land both Tanaka and one of the top starters, expect that trio to sign in late December and possibly even January as they wait out Tanaka‘s posting process.

The Yankees, who need to bring in at least two starters, will look to sign a second-tier starter early on before making a strong push for Tanaka. If they convince Hiroki Kuroda that they’re going to spend freely and build a winner for 2014, I think he’ll stick around for one more season. Then they’ll spend freely to win the Tanaka bidding and head into 2014 with a rotation that has a chance to be pretty good.

1 CC Sabathia, LHP
2 Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
3 Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
4 Ivan Nova, RHP
5 Michael Pineda, RHP 

The Closer Carousel

For the most part, teams are not willing to invest big money into their closer. And after watching Koji Uehara, who made $4.25 million in 2013, and rookie Trevor Rosenthal, who made the minimum $490,000 salary, dominate throughout the playoffs, who could blame them? 

Even Edward Mujica, a journeyman middle reliever, was one of the best closers in baseball once finally given the chance when the Cardinals had limited options early in the season. How Mujica‘s season ended, however, is why giving almost any pitcher “closer money” is a big risk. 

The 29-year-old was hit hard in September and was relegated to mop-up duty in the playoffs. It’s not a surprise, given the history of relief pitchers. It’s hard to know what you’re going to get from year to year. The Cards just happened to catch lightning in a bottle with Mujica and ended up riding him all the way to the playoffs before turning to Rosenthal.

Mujica‘s value has dipped, but in reality, there could be more teams interested in bringing him on now at a much lower rate than had he finished the year strong. 

That’s because the closer’s market is full of pitchers who are deserving of closing jobs and the big contracts that come with that role. Here’s a list of those in that group, in order of how I ranked them at MLBDepthCharts:

Joe Nathan, RHP (pictured)
Grant Balfour, RHP
Joaquin Benoit, RHP
Jesse Crain, RHP
Brian Wilson, RHP
Edward Mujica, RHP
Fernando Rodney, RHP

Several others with closing experience, including Kevin Gregg, Ryan Madson, Chris Perez and Jose Veras, could be had at a discounted rate. 

Now let’s take a look at some teams who could be in need of a closer. The current projected closer is listed in parentheses:

Chicago Cubs (Pedro Strop)
Cleveland Indians (Cody Allen)
Detroit Tigers (Bruce Rondon)
Houston Astros (Josh Fields)
New York Mets (Bobby Parnell)
New York Yankees (David Robertson)
Oakland Athletics (Ryan Cook)
Tampa Bay Rays (Joel Peralta)

Nathan could start things off by signing a two-year, $26 million deal with the Tigers. Here’s how the rest of the dominoes will fall:

Fernando Rodney to the Yankees (1 yr, $10M), Closer
Jesse Crain to the Red Sox (3 yrs, $18M), Setup man
Grant Balfour to the A’s (2 yrs, $18M)
Joaquin Benoit to the Dodgers (3 yrs, $18M), Setup man
Edward Mujica to the Mets (2 yrs, $8M), Closer until Parnell returns from neck surgery
Brian Wilson to the Cubs (2 yrs, $20M)

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Right about now, the Boston Red Sox probably aren’t too focused on their future. After capturing their third World Series title in the last decade on Wednesday, the present is just too good.

Heck, they haven’t even done the parade yet. The duck boats await on Saturday.

Once the parade is over, however, that’s when the Red Sox will go full into future planning mode. After building a winning team last winter, general manager Ben Cherington and his staff will look to turn the Red Sox into a proper dynasty.

Cherington and his staff have the means to do so, but don’t expect them to do it the conventional way by making sure the band stays together.

The breakup of the 2013 Red Sox won’t happen overnight, but the gradual process will start very soon.

The following Red Sox are free agents: shortstop Stephen Drew, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, right-hander Joel Hanrahan, first baseman Mike Napoli and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Hanrahan, who last pitched in May before heading in for Tommy John surgery, is definitely a goner. My powers of prognostication tell me that Drew and Ellsbury are likely goners as well. 

Ellsbury is in line for a huge contract after hitting .298 with a .355 on-base percentage and a league-leading 52 stolen bases, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the speedy center fielder has no shortage of suitors out on the open market. 

Heyman has also reported that there’s a qualifying offer in Ellsbury’s future, but I’m on the record with my belief that it’s doubtful that rejecting that offer and tying himself to draft pick compensation will hurt Ellsbury’s market. There’s simply going to be too much interest in his services, and it bodes well for him that several of his most logical suitors own protected top-10 draft picks.

The bidding for Ellsbury is bound to reach nine figures, and that’s when the Red Sox could bow out. Heyman wrote back in September that $100 million deals make the Red Sox “anxious,” and that such a price tag could mean Ellsbury’s exit from Boston.

Which is easy to believe. While the Red Sox did sign Dustin Pedroia to an extension worth over $100 million this season, signing Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to deals worth over $100 million didn’t work out. They were lucky to get rid of those in last August’s mega-trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

As for Drew, he was an admirable fill-in at shortstop in 2013. But that’s where the Red Sox have budding star Xander Bogaerts ready to step in, and Will Middlebrooks has a legit case to start at third base after posting an .805 OPS in 41 games after returning from the minor leagues in August. 

If Ellsbury and Drew leave, the Red Sox will have money lying around with which to re-up with Napoli and Saltalamacchia. It will take multi-year deals to bring both of them back, but “multi-year” in this case more than likely doesn’t mean “long-term.” 

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe has heard from one GM that a three-year deal is in the cards for Napoli. Assuming the Red Sox make him a qualifying offer, they’re going to be the one team in the best position to give him such a deal. They’re more familiar with Napoli’s degenerative hip issue than anyone else, and they also wouldn’t have to forfeit a draft pick to sign him. 

As for Salty, he stands to benefit from a weak market for catchers this winter, and his price will escalate if Brian McCann does indeed get the $100 million contract he’s been rumored to be in play for. But even if Salty’s price tag does escalate, it won’t escalate to ridiculous heights.

MLBTradeRumors.com, for example, has projected a four-year deal for Saltalamacchia worth $36 million. Even if his price goes to $40 million or $44 million over that same time period, the Red Sox will be looking at more or less the kind of deal that would fit the model Cherington established last winter.

Cherington has darn good reasons to keep that model alive this winter. The immediate gratification of that model working out in 2013 is certainly one of them, but the year-to-year payroll leeway is another. And given larger circumstances at play, now is certainly not a good time for Cherington to abandon it.

More on that in a moment. For now we’re still on the immediate future, which is what the 2014 team is going to look like. And if Ellsbury and Drew leave and Napoli and Salty stay, then the 2014 team will look, well, a whole lot like the 2013 team.

Not that that will be a guarantee of success, mind you. Roster consistency is great, but it’s not the kind of consistency that really counts.

Though all sorts of changes were made last winter, the meat of Boston’s success in 2013 came courtesy of players who were already on the roster. Several key incumbents—Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Pedroia, David Ortiz, Daniel Nava, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and John Lackey—all had fantastic years.

That tends to be what championship years are all about: a bunch of good players all having good years simultaneously. What can go right goes right, and then the rings are handed out.

It’s a shame that regression is part of the natural order of baseball, and that it can be a real you-know-what. Regression has played a big role in the fact that there haven’t been any repeat champions in over a decade, and the Red Sox are the next in line to feel the effects.

Leaving aside the key free agents, here’s a look at how the 2013 WARs (FanGraphs version) of Boston’s incumbent hitters compare to their 2014 projections.

We see here that six of 10 key hitters the Red Sox have under contract for 2014 are projected to either take a step back or not improve at all based on what the numbers have to say. And while they’re not pictured due to the fact that they might be somewhere other than Boston, Steamer has Napoli and Saltalamacchia regressing next year too. 

Now, these projections aren’t gospel. Especially not at this point in the big picture of 2014. And in all likelihood, not every single one of Boston’s key hitters is going to take a step back next season.

But even if some do, 2014 is going to be a rockier ride than 2013 was. Rather than an excellent team, it’s fair to expect the Red Sox to be rendered a very good team.

What could help level things out are contributions from the younger players, which happens to be our cue to start to tiptoeing into the bright side. 

Bogaerts is one of the players projected to get better in 2014, and a 1.9 WAR certainly isn’t reflective of how good he might be. He’s the No. 2 prospect on Mike Rosenbaum’s top 100 list, and is sure to be a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2014 after playing a starring role in October.

Though he may not start right out of the gate, Jackie Bradley Jr. also has the potential to outperform his WAR potential if he ends up being Boston’s replacement for Ellsbury in center field. 

Bradley projects as a plus defensive center fielder with a solid bat. He may have hit only .189/.280/.337 over 107 major league plate appearances in 2013, but his .275/.375/.469 batting line at Triple-A is no joke.

And hey, while we’re discussing talented offensive prospects who could make an impact in Boston in 2014, we should throw third base prospect Garin Cecchini into the mix. The 22-year-old had an .825 OPS at Double-A in 2013, and Baseball America (subscription required) thinks he could make a push for the major league roster as soon as spring training. 

So while the bulk of Boston’s incumbents can be expected to experience some regression in 2014, that they have two high-ceiling youngsters ready to make an impact and a third a dark-horse candidate to make an impact saves the big picture from being overly grim. After building a success story in 2013 on the backs of veterans, the Red Sox might build a success story in 2014 on the backs of youngsters.

Youth also provides some optimism for Boston’s pitching staff.

Here’s another 2013 WAR vs. 2014 projected WAR comparison:

Steamer sees an improvement in store for John Lackey, which is surprising in light of his age. Steamer also sees an improvement in store for Jake Peavy, which isn’t surprising given that the 1.3 WAR pictured above only applies to what he did in a Red Sox uniform over less than half a season.

For everyone else, however, there’s no improvement in the cards. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are projected to be basically the same pitchers they were in 2013—not that that’s a bad thing, mind you—and regression is likely coming for everyone else. 

But where Boston’s offense has Bogaerts, Bradley and Cecchini waiting in the wings, its pitching staff has a whole host of young arms that could potentially make a difference.

The Red Sox got some innings out of Allen Webster (23) and Rubby de la Rosa (24) at the major league level in 2013. Both are in play for 2014, and several of Boston’s best pitching prospects made it as far as the upper levels of the minor leagues in 2013. Left-hander Henry Owens made it as far as Double-A, and right-handers Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo made it as far as Triple-A.

This depth could mean an influx of young pitching in 2014, a la the influx that worked so well for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013. To this end, a youth movement could well impact both Boston’s offense and pitching staff in 2014.

That’s the perfect world scenario for the Red Sox in 2014. Or one of them, anyway. But even if a youth movement doesn’t overtake Boston next season, having as many young players as the Red Sox do inevitably will come in handy.

In a day and age when big-money extensions are keeping superstar players local, it’s getting harder for big-market teams like the Red Sox to buy superstars. And since Cherington has established a model that shies away from buying superstars anyway, he had darn well better have the means to acquire superstars in other ways.

That’s what deep reservoirs of young talent are good for, as they allow teams to either develop their own superstars or make deals for superstars that other teams either don’t want or can’t afford. The Red Sox are in prime position to do either as part of an effort to establish an enviable nucleus.

Which is important, because the nucleus they have now isn’t going to last. The contract statuses of the club’s free agents notwithstanding, the Red Sox currently don’t have many veterans locked down for the long haul.

Ortiz, Lester, Uehara, Peavy, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster and David Ross are only under contract through 2014. Shane Victorino is signed only through 2015. The Red Sox currently have only two veterans locked up for 2016: Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz. 

The 2014 Red Sox are going to look a lot like the 2013 Red Sox. But by 2015, the Red Sox will likely bear little resemblance to the team that won it all. By 2016, the 2013 club is going to be history like the 2004 and 2007 clubs are now.

Because we tend to associate dynasties with core players that stick around for a long time, this may seem like a bad thing. But it’s really not.

The Red Sox would be a lot worse off if they were bogged down with expensive long-term contracts that restricted their spending capacity year after year. They’d be even worse off if they were bogged down with expensive long-term contracts and short on young talent, a la that one pinstriped team in New York.

Instead, what lies ahead of the Red Sox are payrolls that can be filled up in any number of ways in the coming years. All that payroll space means the Red Sox will be able to integrate and then extend young players from their own farm system, as is customary these days. The young talent the Red Sox don’t integrate can be used to acquire established players, and there should still be money left over for whatever the club needs from the winter markets.

It will all come down to Cherington. He painted one masterpiece in 2013. By his own design, things are set up quite nicely for him to paint a few more in the years to come.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Contract information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Of the free agents who will be able to negotiate and sign with new teams beginning on Tuesday, November 5, several of them had an extended opportunity to increase (or decrease) their value in the postseason. 

While only a handful of innings pitched or a small sample size of at-bats normally wouldn’t move the needle very much on a veteran player’s perceived value, a player’s ability to produce in the playoffs certainly can. 

Here are 10 players whose asking price has likely risen or fallen since the end of the regular season.

Begin Slideshow

How much do you know about Bobby Richardson?

Not much, I’m guessing. Richardson had a couple of seasons in which he hit .300, but he ultimately retired with a pedestrian .266 average and a pedestrian .634 OPS. A modern baseball fan doesn’t think of him as one of the titans of the game.

Richardson does have one claim to fame worth knowing, though. In 1960, he won the World Series MVP. He did so despite playing for the New York Yankees, who lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates when Bill Mazeroski swatted a walk-off home run in Game 7.

To date, Richardson is the only player from a losing team to be named World Series MVP.

And this brings us to David Ortiz.

For the moment, Richardson and Ortiz have nothing in common, the key difference being that Big Papi certainly is a titan of the game. The Boston Red Sox‘s veteran slugger is a career .287 hitter with a .930 OPS and 431 home runs, numbers that make him one of the great hitters of his era.

In a couple days’ time, however, Richardson and Ortiz might have something in common. Ortiz is playing in the World Series now, and he’s playing well enough for an intriguing question to materialize.

Take it away, Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com.

Granted, there is an element of silliness to this question. Ortiz and the Red Sox have a 3-2 lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, and Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) will be played at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are more likely to win it all than they are to lose it all.

But because the Cardinals are indeed a very good team, there’s certainly a chance the Red Sox could still lose the World Series. Regarding the World Series MVP, though, Zuckerman’s question is both relevant and a good one because Ortiz really has been that huge in the World Series.

In five games, Ortiz has come to the plate 20 times. In those appearances, he’s logged 15 at-bats. In those 15 at-bats, he has 11 hits. Four of those have been for extra-bases: two doubles and two home runs. He’s also walked four times, reached on an error and hit a sacrifice fly.

Ortiz has therefore reached based 16 times in his 20 plate appearances, and one of the outs he made brought home a run. That makes only three unproductive plate appearances in five games, which is absurd.

Equally absurd is Ortiz’s slash line. He’s currently hitting .733/.750/1.267. That’s a 2.017 OPS. Turn the sac fly he hit in Game 1 into the grand slam that it could have been, and Ortiz is hitting an even more absurd .750/.800/1.438 with a 2.238 OPS. 

As it is, the numbers Ortiz does have are already historic. Behold where Big Papi’s numbers currently rank in the realm of all-time great World Series performances, according to Baseball-Reference.com:

If you’ve gotten the feeling that you’ve been watching one of the all-time great World Series hitting displays, it’s not just you. That’s exactly what Ortiz has been up to against the Cardinals.

The four guys ahead of Ortiz on the World Series OPS ranks—Lou Gehrig, Billy Hatcher, Hideki Matsui and Babe Ruth—played on teams that won it all. One supposes that bodes well for Big Papi and the Red Sox.

But then, there’s the guy directly below Ortiz on the World Series OPS ranks: Barry Bonds.

Bonds is there because he hit .471/.700/1.294 in the 2002 World Series, in which he and the San Francisco Giants lost to the Anaheim Angels in seven games. That’s a 1.994 OPS, a number that presents a strong case for Bonds’ World Series performance as the greatest ever by a player on a losing team.

And since Bonds didn’t win the World Series MVP, he presents a fascinating case study. For if we take it for granted that Ortiz keeps right on hitting only to see the Red Sox lose the World Series, why would he be the best choice for the World Series MVP when Bonds wasn’t in 2002?

Well, there’s the obvious, which is that the numbers Ortiz is flirting with putting up in the World Series are better than the numbers Bonds put up back in 2002. And since this is an MVP discussion, there’s also the matter of what Ortiz’s numbers have meant to the Red Sox.

Take a moment to consider how Bonds did in the 2002 World Series relative to the rest of the Giants:

Bonds was stupendous in the ’02 World Series, but the rest of the Giants held their own around him. Heck, the MLB average in 2002 was a .748 OPS. Bonds’ supporting cast did better than that.

Now, consider how Ortiz has done in the 2013 World Series relative to the rest of the Red Sox:

Ortiz has a third of the Red Sox’s hits. He basically has 40 percent of their extra-base hits. His OPS is almost five times as large as that of his comrades.

That makes two major differences between Bonds in 2002 and Ortiz in 2013. The next major difference is that Bonds actually had some legit competition for the World Series MVP.

The award ended up going to Troy Glaus. And while he wasn’t as huge as Bonds was in the ’02 World Series, he was pretty darn good. Here’s the must-have comparison.

Bonds and Glaus both came to the plate 30 times. Bonds undeniably had the bigger impact, but Glaus’ impact was plenty big. A 1.313 OPS is definitely something to write home about.

And it’s not just in the conventional stats that Glaus held his own against Bonds. He did so in the other stats too.

For those who are wondering, “aLI” is Average Leverage Index. It’s a measure of the amount of pressure a hitter faced in a game or a series depending on the situations he was hitting in, according to Baseball-Reference.com. In the ’02 World Series, Glaus faced more pressure than Bonds did.

“WPA,” meanwhile, is Win Probability Added. It measures how a player impacted his team’s probability to win games. Glaus helped the Angels’ overall win probability almost as much as Bonds helped the Giants’ win probability.

“RE24” is Runs Added by 24 base-out situations. Just as win probability is a fluid thing that can be influenced by players in given moments, run expectancy is a fluid thing that can be influenced. That’s what RE24 is all about. Bonds was clearly better than Glaus in the ’02 World Series to this end, but a 4.57 RE24 for one seven-game stretch is pretty darn good.

Now that we’ve gotten all that out of the way, we can turn to back to Ortiz and try to find his Glaus.

And therein lies the dilemma: nobody on the Cardinals is really holding a candle to Ortiz through the first five games of the World Series.

The best option is Matt Holliday, who has an even 1.000 OPS. No other Cardinals hitter who has logged at least 10 at-bats is doing better than .801, and Holliday also owns four of the club’s nine extra-base hits. 

But while Holliday will do for a candidate for the World Series MVP award, he doesn’t come close to cutting it as a match for Ortiz:

The conventional stats obviously favor Ortiz to a huge degree. He’s also faced more pressure and positively influenced Boston’s win probability and run expectancies to a far greater degree than Holliday has for St. Louis.

Holliday, basically, is no Glaus. 

Obviously, there’s still time for things to change. The Cardinals aren’t dead yet, and there’s still time for Ortiz’s numbers to come back down to earth. 

The catch, however, is that even if Ortiz’s numbers do come back down to earth in the final two games of the series, they’ll still be outstanding.

Let’s say Ortiz comes to the plate four times in each of the next two games of the series and takes an 0-fer. If that happens, his batting line for the series will drop to .478/.536/.826. That’s a 1.362 OPS, which is still better than the OPS Glaus had in 2002.

An OPS like that is also one that Holliday would be hard-pressed to match, as gaining 362 OPS points in two games would require him to go on a tear. That could happen, but it’s not like he’s been an absolute terror for Red Sox pitchers in the series. The only Cardinals hitter they’ve struck out more than Holliday is Matt Adams.

Instead, it’s probably going to be up to somebody else on the Cardinals to wrest the World Series MVP away from Big Papi. Maybe Michael Wacha could put himself in line for the award with a huge performance in Game 6. Or maybe Joe Kelly could do so in Game 7. Or maybe Trevor Rosenthal could do it by finishing off the last two games of the series and adding to an impressive performance that has already seen him pitch 3.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts.

Even then, however, denying Big Papi the World Series MVP would be no easy call. It would essentially boil down to a choice between rewarding a guy who came up huge in the last two games over a guy who authored an all-time great performance through at least the first five games.

Since there are a ton of variables still in play, the best I or anyone else can say of this matter is “We shall see.” This is baseball, where weird things happening has long been the norm. 

But for now, what we know is that David Ortiz is the biggest, baddest dude left standing on the baseball landscape, and that the Red Sox have needed every last digit of the astronomical numbers he’s put up in the World Series. If the Red Sox hold on, he’ll be a slam dunk for the MVP award.

And even if the Red Sox don’t hold on, the people who determine such things may never get a better excuse to finally give Bobby Richardson some company.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

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This winter, Robinson Cano will be the biggest, most expensive name on the free-agent market, which is just the sort of player the big-market, deep-pocketed New York Yankees have been known to land.

But will they? And more importantly, should they?

Cano, of course, actually is a Yankee. At least, technically speaking. For now.

Fresh off his 31st birthday—celebrated in style along with his rep Jay Z in Belgium—Cano remains property of the Yankees until the end of the World Series, although it’s all but a formality that he’ll hit the open market and be the most sought-after superstar of the winter.

Among the many questions the Yankees face this offseason, solving the Cano Conundrum should be priority No. 1. But there are oh-so-many layers and nuances and variables to complicate this situation.

Sure, Cano has said he “loves this team”—meaning the Yankees—according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

And general manager Brian Cashman has made it clear that the club wants to bring Cano back:

We’d love to have Robbie back. There’s not much more for me to say about that, but our intention is to have him back if we can. He’ll receive without question, or has received, a significant offer to stay. He’ll have something legitimately to ponder.

And of course, amid what’s shaping up to be an offseason and 2014 season full of change, the Yanks could use some stability by keeping their five-time All-Star and best all-around player.

But despite all of that, the most important fact is that if Cano is going to remain in pinstripes, it needs to happen more on the Yankees’ terms than on Cano’s—especially when Cano’s apparently are $305 million over 10 years.

Recent baseball history has shown that paying a franchise player massive amounts to stick around isn’t necessarily the smartest way to spend, especially when they’re over 30, as Cano is. For every Joey Votto, there’s a Ryan Howard.

Nor is it recommended to splurge on the top free agents; just ask the Los Angeles Angels about Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols or the Boston Red Sox about Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.

Indeed, there are several examples of big-name, big-money players who have moved on when their team wouldn’t meet their too-steep contract demands. And surprisingly—or perhaps not so surprisingly anymore—many of the teams turned out better for it, both in terms of on-field success and financial freedom.

In fact, if any team should be wary of the pitfalls of ponying up for an aging superstar, it’s the Yankees, who have done so to get or hold on to (deep breath now) Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, among others.

Obviously, not all of those were regrettable decisions either at the time or in hindsight—the Yankees, remember, did win the 2009 World Series after spending big—but it’s also hard not to look around the league these days and see small-market clubs like the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics and even (gasp) the Pittsburgh Pirates get it done without breaking the bank. Or even the piggybank.

The good news for the Yankees is that they already have a blueprint for handling the Cano negotiations. Back in November of 2010, Jeter’s previous contract came to an end, and after proposing an offer, Cashman more or less challenged the longtime captain and shortstop—one of the best, most revered players in the franchise’s long, storied history—to see if he could do better elsewhere.

Granted, taking that strategy to the public forum wasn’t the smartest thing for the organization to do, especially with Jeter and in media-crazed New York—it wouldn’t be recommended with Cano either—but that same take-it-or-top-it approach is the Yankees’ best play.

Put a big, fat number in front of Cano, one that fits the team’s budget and terms, and make it clear that’s where the line gets drawn.

The Yankees already made a “significant offer” to Cano several months ago—$161 over seven years, per David Waldstein of the New York Times—and maybe even more than one. But that should be thought of as the let’s-get-these-talks-started proposal more than a hard-and-fast one that’s likely to come soon enough.

The Yankees should be spending these last few days of exclusive negotiating rights with Cano to line up their best—and final—offer. And if Cano, under the advisement of Jay Z’s Roc Nation Sports says nah, then Cashman should respond by saying that the offer stands, but not for long, and if Cano can do better, well, then thanks for playing.

Because in Cano’s case, even as the top target this offseason, there won’t be that many suitors able to give him the money he wants or expects. While it might be a little premature to automatically count out any small-market team, it’s more than likely that only teams with big budgets will be in the bidding.

Obviously, the freedom to negotiate with all 30 teams on the open market gives the player a huge advantage and lots of leverage. But in Cano’s case, he he simply won’t be talking numbers—real, serious, nine-figure numbers—with more than a handful of clubs.

As Tom Verducci wrote for Sports Illustrated:

Ultimately, Cano’s value will be determined by a team other than the Yankees, be it the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals or Rangers or a team nobody sees coming, such as the Mets or Marlins. Cano needs to engage another club in the bidding to reach the $200 million neighborhood, a space occupied previously only by Rodriguez (twice), Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder.

So what “team other than the Yankees” might be the one to drive up Cano’s value on the open market to the point where he might actually get a better deal than what the Yankees could offer?

• The Dodgers? They just inked Cuban import Alexander Guerrero to be their likely answer at second base.
• The Red Sox? Not with Dustin Pedroia locked up long-term already.
• The Giants? Spent their wad on Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum.
• The Phillies? Ditto with Chase Utley.
• The Angels? Really, after the way their past two offseasons of expenditures have played out?
• The Rangers? They could have the cash, but they have excess infielders as it is.
• The Tigers? One imagines having to soon pay two stars in Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer takes priority.
• The Mariners? If Cano goes there, then he’s all—and only—about the money.
• The Cubs? Possibly, if they’re willing to pay now in order to win later.
• The Mets? A possibility, but probably a far-fetched one.
• The Orioles? They might check in, especially given their need at the keystone.
• The Nationals? Another Beltway club that may pose a threat based on need and their contender status.

Look, it’s not as easy as saying all of the above teams are over and out, not when free agency hasn’t even begun. And the “mystery team” is always in play, always lurking. But the point is, Cano isn’t going to have this wide-open market to land a contract much bigger than what the Yankees are likely to put on the table.

A team or three will be in the mix, for sure, but at the moment you have to squint to see which ones.

From the Yankees’ point of view, if they suspect Cano and Co. are bluffing, but that he really does have another team ready to hand over more, the biggest problem is that there’s not much to fall back on at the moment, either on the current roster or in the minors.

That would put a lot of pressure on Cashman to make a few savvy—but less pricey—moves in free agency to keep the Yankees in contention. But with the millions that would otherwise be going to Cano available, Cashman would have the ability to spend as he sees fit to plug multiple holes, rather than just one.

All the more reason why that take-it-or-top-it offer should be presented to Cano sooner rather than later, so the Yankees can move on and do their shopping elsewhere, if it comes to that.

Because there’s more than one way to solve a conundrum.

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The first two games of the 2013 World Series have been headlined by leather.

The poor throws in the late innings of Game 2 by the Boston Red Sox evened the Series one day after a litany of errors and misplays by the St. Louis Cardinals left them trailing after Game 1—which, of course, also featured the headline-grabbing controversy surrounding the alleged foreign substance on Jon Lester‘s glove.

And so as the scene shifts to St. Louis for Games 3, 4 and 5, there’s still plenty of chatter and speculation surrounding Lester’s leather and just what exactly was on it.

You’ve no doubt seen, heard and read all about this by now. It’s been made into a story so big that it might only be rivaled in size by the very “giant booger” that Lester called the green blotchy substance on the top portion of his glove’s thumb.

There’s been all sorts of back-and-forth on this topic, but Lester denied any subterfuge and more or less waved off the issue off when he addressed it with the media the day after his Game 1 gem, saying, via Alex Speier of WEEI.com:

I know that not once have I cheated. The picture does look bad. But it’s rosin. That’s all I can really comment on with it. It’s rosin. And my next start, in Game 5, I’ll go out there and do the exact same thing and hopefully have the same outcome of the game.

Speaking of Monday’s Game 5, which is sure to be preceded by all of the scrutiny and nonstop reminders we can handle, how will all of that impact Lester’s performance?

For one thing, the umpires will probably be keeping a close eye on the left-hander’s glove. That’s a given. If that was Cardinals prospect Tyler Melling’s intent when he dropped the tweet heard ’round the World Series, mission accomplished.

Let’s also recognize that this story blew up so much and so quickly because Lester pitched so well, hurling 7.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. Does Melling’s tweet even happen if Lester pitches less effectively?

But as fellow MLB Lead Writer Zach Rymer pointed out in the wake of Game 1, there’s no evidence that Lester was getting any sort of help or boost or extra movement from the substance, whatever it was.

Not that Lester would have needed it anyway. Performing well in October is nothing new for him. In case you hadn’t noticed, the 29-year-old tends to do pretty darn well in the postseason, as he’s proved throughout his career. Entering this Fall Classic, Lester had allowed only six earned runs on 16 hits in 19.3 innings this month.

In his playoff career, Lester is sporting a 2.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 69 innings over 12 outings.

If nothing else, that shows Lester is capable of excelling against the best players in the game during the most intense, dramatic, high-leverage games he’s ever pitched in. To think that this “non-troversy,” as Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports dubbed it, is going to suddenly make Lester lose focus or distract him from his goal of winning a World Series game is just a tad silly.

Besides, the Red Sox are dealing with a more pressing distraction. That would be the status of Clay Buchholz, who is in line to start Sunday’s Game 4—at least for now.

The right-hander, who was Boston’s best pitcher early this year but lost three months to injury, is once again dealing with health issues that have him at well below 100 percent. His velocity has been down since he returned in September, per Brooks Baseball, and his 5.40 ERA through three playoff starts indicates he’s not close to the pitcher he was through the season’s first few months, when he had a 1.71 ERA prior to hitting the disabled list.

Now he’s battling shoulder soreness, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, and he may have “hit the wall” as manager John Farrell suggested.

“I’ve got maybe one start left,” Buchholz said. “I haven’t been 100 percent in a long time now.”

(Ironically enough, Buchholz had his very own alleged ball-doctoring incident back in May.)

Whether or not the Red Sox can count on Buchholz in Game 4—or will have to turn instead to left-hander Felix Doubront, who was relegated to long-man status at the outset of October—is a real and potentially more damaging problem than whether Lester will be bothered by Glovegate.

Fact is, Lester will pitch Game 5 and be ready to go. As for Buchholz and his ability to handle Game 4? That’s a legitimate concern for Boston.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be plenty of scrutiny on Lester’s leather the next time he toes the rubber, particularly because he’ll be on the road in St. Louis. He’s not going to be able to ignore all of the hubbub between now and when he steps on the mound Monday. But it’s not like that will affect how he pitches or cause him to fall apart, either.

While Lester is a fiery, competitive, heart-on-his-sleever, he’s also a major leaguer pitching in what potentially could be a clinching or do-or-die World Series game. One imagines he’ll have his priorities straight.

And it’s not like Lester hasn’t endured years and years of questions and criticisms—the chicken-and-beer fallout from Boston’s 2011 collapse comes to mind—while playing in one of the most intense media markets for the past eight years. Plus, he’s faced his fair share of life obstacles, too, having beaten lymphoma back in 2006.

Some extra scrutiny based on a little Gak on his glove isn’t going to be the most attention or the biggest challenge Lester has ever faced.

The toughest part about all of this for Lester is the timing. On Monday, he will be making his final start of 2013 on baseball’s biggest stage with a championship hanging in the balance. It’ll be up to Lester to perform under that spotlight like he’s done so many times before. Only this time it might be a little brighter than normal in Game 5.

Until then, though, expect leather to remain a fashionable topic this fall.

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