Kuzul

Gather up the last 10 World Series champions, and you’ll be holding a fascinating collection of narratives.

There were the slump-breakers. The 2004 Boston Red Sox, 2005 Chicago White Sox, 2008 Philadelphia Phillies and 2010 San Francisco Giants all snapped lengthy title droughts.

There were the unexpecteds. The Florida Marlins came out of nowhere to win the 2003 World Series. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won it all, despite winning only 83 games in the regular season. The 2011 Cardinals qualified for the playoffs on the last day of the season and ultimately snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Texas Rangers.

Then there’s the “could kinda see that coming” crowd. The 2007 Red Sox and 2009 Yankees had the look of champions all along, and the Giants’ triumph in 2012 was their second in three years.

It’s a darn shame we can’t round up all 10 of these teams, put ’em in a bracket and make ’em play in a winner-take-all tournament just to serve the interests of what-the-heckery, might-as-wellery and good, plain, old-fashioned fun. 

While we can’t do that, however, nobody says we can’t allow ourselves to ask, “What if?” and then get to pondering some simulated matchups.

And that’s what we’re here for today. If you’ll follow me this way, we’ll see about whittling the last 10 champions down to one champion to rule them all.

Setting the Brackets and Laying the Ground Rules

Setting brackets for this hypothetical what-have-you would be a lot simpler if the Rangers had been able to capitalize on either of their chances to get that final strike in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series. Had they done that, the last 10 World Series champs would consist of five American League teams and five National League teams. 

Since that option wasn’t available, I figured that the next best thing was splitting the last 10 champions based on the span in which they won: 2003-2007 and 2008-2012. I then seeded the teams by regular-season winning percentage, with run differential serving as a tiebreaker.

Here’s how the 2003-2007 bracket ended up:

And the 2008-2012 bracket:

The matchups will follow the same playoff structure MLB is currently using: No. 5 and No. 4 will be the play-in matchup, the winner will face the No. 1 seed, and so on.

To keep things as fair as they can be, the 10 clubs will be treated as the teams they were at the time they won the World Series. Postseason statistics will take priority as will postseason rosters.

That does it, so let’s sound the bell and get to hypothesizing.

2003-2007 Play-In: 2006 Cardinals vs. 2003 Marlins

The 2003 Marlins would not have won the World Series in 2003 without Josh Beckett. All he did was post a 2.09 ERA and throw two complete games while amassing a 44-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Those numbers gave birth to a superstar. And in this context, they would make him the best pitcher on either side of the matchup at hand between the ’03 Marlins and ’06 Cardinals.

However, the Marlins didn’t have much outside of Beckett. Brad Penny and Mark Redman both posted ERAs over 6.00 in October of ’03. The Marlins, as a team, posted a modest 4.30 ERA.

The 2006 Cardinals, on the other hand, saw their hurlers heat up at the right time. Chris Carpenter had a 2.78 ERA, and Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan and Anthony Reyes all ended with ERAs of 3.00 or better. Then-closer Adam Wainwright was one of three primary relievers who didn’t allow an earned run.

So in a matchup between the ’03 Marlins and ’06 Cardinals, much would come down to Florida’s offense coming alive. And given what the Marlins offense did that October, that would be a tall order.

The Marlins only mustered a .698 OPS in the ’03 postseason, and just four of their regulars managed an OPS of at least .700. By comparison, St. Louis’ offense posted a .727 OPS and had five regulars post an OPS of at least .700. 

Not even Special Agents Fox Mulder and Dana Scully have a theory for what happened with the ’06 Cardinals. But in this context, they look like a legitimately superior team.

2008-2012 Play-In: 2011 Cardinals vs. 2010 Giants

The 2010 Giants had two things in abundance: general weirdness and pitching. 

Giants pitchers combined for a 2.47 ERA in the 2010 postseason. Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner both posted ERAs in the 2.40 range with a combined K/BB of 59/13. Matt Cain didn’t allow an earned run all postseason. Ditto the modestly (at the time) bearded Brian Wilson.

The catch is that the Giants didn’t hit a whole lot. They combined for just a .666 OPS in the playoffs, and only one of their regulars had an OPS over .800 (Cody Ross at 1.076).

The 2011 Cardinals offense, on the other hand, was stacked. They compiled a .782 OPS in the playoffs, with six regulars managing an OPS of at least .700. Albert Pujols, Allen Craig and unexpected hero/destroyer-of-worlds David Freese all topped 1.000.

If the Cardinals offense were to be up to the task of hitting the Giants’ starting pitching, bullpens would be a huge factor in this matchup. And the edge there goes to St. Louis.

While the Giants did have Wilson at the height of his studliness, the 2011 Cardinals bullpen featured a deep and diverse mix. Newly anointed closer Jason Motte, Octavio Dotel, Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn and Arthur Rhodes were among their primary relievers who posted 3.40 ERAs or better.

The 2010 Giants only had two relievers do that well: Wilson and Javier Lopez. Since the latter is a humble LOOGY, the only inning they really had under wraps was the ninth inning.

So two picks in, I’m already coming off as a huge Cardinals homer. 

[Shrugs. Says, “Oh well.” Moves on to the next matchup.]

2003-2007 Semifinal: 2007 Red Sox vs. 2004 Red Sox

Ah yes, the ultimate Boston bar conversation. Which team was better: the ’04 Red Sox club that killed the curse or the ’07 Red Sox club that gave it the double-tap?

The 2007 one-two punch of Beckett and Curt Schilling takes the cake over the 2004 one-two punch of Schilling and Pedro Martinez. Though he pitched well with it, Schilling’s ankle injury did render him a lesser pitcher. For his part, Martinez was wilder than usual with 13 walks in four starts.

Beckett and Schilling (’07 iteration) combined to allow 12 earned runs in 54 innings in the postseason, with a ridiculous K/BB of 51/5. Beckett, in particular, couldn’t be touched.

The ’07 Red Sox also boast the superior bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon didn’t allow a run in the ’07 postseason, and he was one of three Boston relievers to post an ERA of 3.18 or better. On the ’04 Red Sox, only Keith Foulke and Alan Embree did that well. 

As for offense, you can take your pick between the ’04 Red Sox and the ’07 Red Sox. Both were really good. But as far as postseason production goes, it’s actually not close.

The ’04 Red Sox had a wrecking ball in David Ortiz, but the 1.204 OPS he posted in ’07 is on par with the 1.278 OPS he posted in ’04. To boot, Boston’s offense was deeper around him in ’07 than it was in ’04. The 2007 Red Sox had an absurd .911 OPS in the postseason, and Ortiz was one of four regulars who posted an OPS over 1.000.

The ’04 Red Sox were a team for the books, but they’d meet their match against the ’07 Red Sox.

2008-2012 Semifinal: 2008 Phillies vs. 2012 Giants

Against all odds, the Giants managed to be about as inept swinging the bats in the 2012 playoffs as the 2010 Giants had been.

Giants hitters only mustered a .674 OPS in October 2012. Only three of their regulars did better than .750, and Pablo Sandoval was the only one with an OPS over .800. 

On the other side, the ’08 Phillies posted an OPS of .798 in October. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino and Pat Burrell all posted an OPS of at least .800.

So like with the matchup between the 2010 Giants and 2011 Cardinals, it would be up to the Giants’ pitching to save them.

The one thing the Giants did have in 2012 that they didn’t have in 2010 is a deep bullpen. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt combined to allow two earned runs in 28 innings. Tim Lincecum had 17 strikeouts in 13 innings as a reliever.

The 2008 Phillies, however, also had a great bullpen going for them in the playoffs. Their relievers combined for a 1.79 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson were particularly lethal with 25 strikeouts in 22 innings.

Lastly, the ace advantage would lie with the Phillies. Cole Hamels had a 1.80 ERA and a 30/9 K/BB ratio in the 2008 playoffs. Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong both had superior ERAs, but Vogelsong’s K/BB was a pedestrian 21/10, and Zito’s was an even more pedestrian 13/6.

So I’d side with the 2008 Phillies. Once those who feel like cursing my anti-Giants’ propaganda have it out of their system, we can move along.

2003-2007 Semifinal: 2006 Cardinals vs. 2005 White Sox

The flukiest champion of the last decade against a club that won 99 games before going 11-1 in October. Kinda reminds you of that one Biblical story with the big guy and the little guy.

And unfortunately for the 2006 Cardinals in this (hypothetical/fictional/whatever) matchup, the 2005 White Sox really were that good.

Nobody could touch Chicago’s pitching in the ’05 postseason, as their hurlers combined for a 2.55 ERA. That was mostly thanks to their starters, who accounted for 92 of the team’s 113 innings (no, seriously). Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland each pitched a complete game and combined for a 0.93 WHIP and a 50/14 K/BB ratio.

St. Louis’ starters were awfully good in the ’06 postseason. But with 99.1 of 141 innings pitched and a 1.13 WHIP and 63/33 K/BB ratio, they weren’t that good.

A deeper bullpen would still be a matchup advantage for the ’06 Cardinals…but only to a degree in this case. Though they weren’t called on that often, the trio of Bobby Jenks, Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte allowed only three earned runs and six hits in 13.2 innings. 

It’s unfair that the ’05 White Sox could hit, too. Their .821 OPS in the ’05 postseason is almost 100 points higher than the .727 OPS the Cardinals posted in the ’06 postseason, and the White Sox had a staggering six regulars post an OPS of at least .800. 

Like they did in every series they played in ’05, the 2005 White Sox would win this one in a rout.

2008-2012 Semifinal: 2011 Cardinals vs. 2009 Yankees

Unlike that one (hypothetical/fictional/whatever) time they went up against the 2010 Giants, the 2011 Cardinals would not being going up against a vastly inferior offensive opponent in this one.

The 2009 Yankees had a lineup that featured Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui. The best lineup money can buy indeed.

The bright side, however, is that the ’11 Cardinals would be catching the ’09 Yankees at the right time. Teixeira, Cano and Swisher were underwhelming in the playoffs with OPS’s under the .700 mark. In fact, the only Yankee hitters who really excelled were Jeter, A-Rod and Mastui.

All told, the ’09 Yankees only had .772 OPS in October, merely on par with the .782 OPS of the ’11 Cardinals. So as these things usually do, this matchup would come down to pitching.

The Yankees would have the advantage in the ace-closer combination department. CC Sabathia was money with a 1.98 postseason ERA, and Mariano Rivera allowed only one earned run in 16 innings. Chris Carpenter had a 3.25 ERA and Jason Motte allowed three earned runs in 12.1 innings. Not quite as good.

The deal-breaker would be Andy Pettitte. He had a 3.52 ERA in his five starts in the ’09 postseason, whereas none of the starters behind Carpenter in St. Louis’ rotation did better than 4.21. And while the 2011 Cardinals did have a righty-heavy lineup in 2011, Pettitte was actually a reverse-splits guy in 2009, holding righties to a lower OPS than he did lefties.

Give me the ’09 Yankees in this one.

2003-2007 Final: 2007 Red Sox vs. 2005 White Sox

Now we’re talking. A showdown between these two clubs would put the old “great pitching always beats great hitting” adage to the ultimate test. 

White Sox pitchers would have to walk a fine line against the ’07 Red Sox’s lineup. Because if Chicago hurlers had one weakness in ’05, it’s that they didn’t miss bats. Throughout the whole postseason, they only managed a K/9 of 5.7.

Pitching to contact successfully against the ’07 Red Sox would be tricky, for they had a deeper and more dangerous lineup than the ’06 Cardinals or any lineup that the White Sox came across in the ’05 postseason. Also, the Red Sox were quite good at making contact, striking out only 15.2 percent in the postseason.

As such, the ’05 White Sox’s pitching would probably be rendered less mighty by Boston’s offense, which would only make it easier for Beckett and Schilling to make up for the disadvantage the Red Sox would have in starting pitching depth.

Beckett, in particular, would likely match up well against a Chicago offense that struck out a bit more frequently in the ’05 postseason (16.2 K%) than Boston’s offense in the ’07 postseason.

If it came down to the bullpens, much would depend on the key trios: Jenks, Cotts and Politte for Chicago and Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and Mike Timlin for Boston. The latter would have a very slight edge in its ability to miss bats, as the Boston trio posted an 8.3 K/9 to the Chicago trio’s 8.2 K/9.

This one’s a toss-up, but in the end Boston’s lethal offense and solid pitching staff would make the Red Sox the winners.

2008-2012 Final: 2008 Phillies vs. 2009 Yankees

The only question that matters here is whether the 2008 Phillies would be a better match for the 2009 Yankees than the 2009 Phillies team that lost to them in the World Series.

Right off the bat, I’m going to lean toward…no.

The ’09 Phillies were better offensively in the postseason than the ’08 Phillies were. The ’09 club posted an .817 OPS in the playoffs and had five regulars post at last a .900 OPS. The ’08 Phillies only had a .798 OPS and had one regular post at last a .900 OPS.

The ’09 Phillies also had Cliff Lee, who had a better postseason than the one Cole Hamels had in ’08. Lee pitched two complete games and finished with a 1.56 ERA and a 33/6 K/BB ratio in 40.1 innings, superior numbers to Hamels’ 1.80 and 30/9.

The one big advantage the ’08 Phillies do have is relief pitching. Lidge regressed mightily in 2009, and the rest of the bullpen was weaker as well. Philadelphia relievers combined for a 4.20 ERA in the ’09 postseason, a huge step back from the 1.79 ERA the bullpen had posted in October ’08.

But given that the ’09 Yankees got excellent work out of Rivera and watched their bullpen post a collective 2.91 ERA in October, the ’08 Phillies’ excellent bullpen would only be worth so much.

Certainly not enough to make up for an inferior offensive attack and a lesser ace, anyway. I’d go with the 2009 Yankees.

And that leaves…

The Overall Final: 2007 Red Sox vs. 2009 Yankees

Let this be a reminder to you, kids. In baseball, as in life, everything invariably comes down to the Red Sox and the Yankees.

But hey, at least this would be a good one.

Beckett would have another crack at dominating the Yankees like he did in the 2003 World Series. And in this case, he’d have an edge over Sabathia. Beckett posted a better ERA (1.20) and a better K/BB (35/2) in the ’07 postseason than Sabathia did in the ’09 postseason (1.98 and 32/9).

Schilling, another Yankees nemesis from 2001 and 2004, would be a good match for Pettitte. Schilling didn’t pitch as many innings or rack up as many strikeouts in ’07 as Pettitte did in ’09, but he did post a better ERA (3.00 to 3.52) and WHIP (1.17 to 1.21).

As for the bullpens, the ’09 version of Rivera and the ’07 version of Papelbon make for fine arguments for one another, but the Red Sox’s core trio of Papelbon, Okajima and Timlin would be superior to the Yankees’ core trio of Rivera, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. They had an ERA of 2.87 in the ’09 playoffs. Boston’s trio had a 1.66 ERA in the ’07 playoffs.

And once again, the Red Sox would have a difference-making advantage on offense. The 2009 Yankees’ lineup was truly tremendous on paper, but Boston’s lineup was significantly more tremendous between the lines with that collective .911 OPS. Teams just aren’t supposed to hit that well in the playoffs, but the 2007 Red Sox did.

As regular-season teams, I’d side with the 2009 Yankees over the 2007 Red Sox in a heartbeat. And probably over the other nine teams that have won the World Series in the last 10 years as well, for what it’s worth.

But given how balanced their attack was when they won the World Series, the 2007 Red Sox just so happened to be a good fit for a totally non-scientific simulation carried out in the interests of what-the-heckery, might-as-wellery and good, plain, old-fashioned fun. 

Note: Individual player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Overall postseason stats courtesy of ESPN.com.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Here’s what’ll go down in Cleveland once the season ends. The Indians will exercise Ubaldo Jimenez‘s $8 million club option. Jimenez will then exercise his right to decline, however, as stipulated in his contract.

It states that Jimenez could void the 2014 option if he was traded during the span of the contract, which he originally signed prior to the 2009 season while with the Rockies. The clause kicked in once he was traded to Cleveland in July 2011.

While the Indians are still undecided on whether they’ll offer the 29-year-old a $14 million qualifying offer, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer—doing so would secure the team a draft choice if Jimenez departs, but they’d pay him $14 million on a one-year deal if he accepts—it’s a foregone conclusion that Jimenez will become a free agent and seek a long-term deal for big money.

Despite a mostly unimpressive showing with the Tribe—he had a 5.43 ERA over his first 51 starts with the team—Jimenez’ value has skyrocketed after an amazing career resurgence that began in late May.

Over the span of 23 starts, the right-hander posted a 2.41 ERA with 123 hits and 58 walks allowed to go along with 147 strikeouts in 138 innings pitched. He had trouble getting through six innings early in the run but appeared to be getting stronger as the season went along. 

While averaging close to seven innings per start, Jimenez pitched like an “ace” with a 1.72 ERA, 23 walks and 94 strikeouts in 78.1 innings pitched over his last 12 starts. With that kind of last impression, there’s no way he’s settling for a one-year, $14 million deal with the Tribe. 

He could easily match San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum’s new two-year contract worth a reported $35 million. But it’s also likely he can get that same amount per season ($17.5 million) over four or five years.

Here are three teams that would be great fits for Jimenez. 

Colorado Rockies

The free-agent market is not a place the Rockies expect to find front-line starting pitchers. And the Rockies are exactly the team that free-agent pitchers try to avoid. Coors Field and pitchers usually aren’t a good match.

It’s not that pitchers don’t occasionally have success there. But it’s too risky for either side to want to find out if it will work out or not. 

Jimenez might be the rare exception, though, because the Rockies know him so well and because he’s had success pitching at their hitter’s haven of a ballpark. 

Originally signed by the team as a 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Jimenez debuted late in 2006 and finally made it to the majors for good in the second half of 2007. Slowly but surely, he was developing into one of the better pitchers in the league.

From 2009-10, he posted a 34-20 record with a 3.17 ERA in 66 starts. Overall, he’s posted a 3.67 ERA in 419.2 career innings at Coors Field. He clearly wasn’t effected by it’s hitter-friendly conditions. 

So would he return so soon after just resurrecting his career?

My guess is that his confidence level is sky-high, and he feels every bit as good as he did when he was at his peak with the Rockies. They might have to go five years to convince him, but I think he’d be excited about a return to an organization where he had so much success.

A Rockies’ rotation with Jimenez has a chance to be very good…

1 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
2 Jorge De La Rosa, LHP
3 Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
4 Tyler Chatwood, RHP
5 Drew Pomeranz, LHP

New York Yankees

If the Yankees are going to have a chance to compete next season, they must open up the pocketbook and spend big in free agency. For a team that brings in so much revenue and consistently has one of the top, if not the top, payrolls in the game, that shouldn’t be a problem.

But as of last winter, the Yankees were reportedly leaning toward trimming their payroll beneath $189 million, which is the threshold for a team to pay the luxury tax.

But the state of the current roster, which might have more obvious holes than any team in baseball, is the reason they’ll revert to the Yankees way of thinking. They’ll worry less about how much they’re spending and more about how they’re going to build a champion next season.

And while a big part of that plan would be to re-sign second baseman Robinson Cano, it’s the starting rotation that needs the most work. CC Sabathia no longer resembles a front-line starter, and there’s no guarantee he can bounce back.

The Yankees have a few options on the free-agent market, including Matt Garza and Ervin Santana, but it’s Jimenez who might be the best fit to a lead a rotation that would likely include fellow countrymen Ivan Nova (pictured) and Michael Pineda.

Known for his strong work ethic, Jimenez could be the perfect mentor for the young Dominican duo, as well as two of their best prospects, catcher Gary Sanchez and pitcher Rafael De Paula. Both are also from the Dominican Republic and could reach New York by year two of Jimenez’s contract.

Even the good version of Jimenez isn’t enough to turn this rotation around—they’ll need at least one more starter. Here’s what they’d look like with just Jimenez added to the mix… 

1 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
2 CC Sabathia, LHP
3 Ivan Nova, RHP
4 David Phelps, RHP
5 Michael Pineda, RHP

Pittsburgh Pirates

Whatever the Pirates and pitching coach Ray Searage did to help Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett resurrect their careers once they arrived in Pittsburgh, it’s probably a pretty good selling point for any free-agent pitcher. Especially one like Jimenez who went from great to really bad almost overnight and couldn’t return to form for nearly two years. 

With Burnett’s salary off the books, the Bucs could either try to re-sign him, look for a short-term stopgap, replace him internally or make the bold move to acquire a front-line starter this winter.

Since they haven’t shown much interest in trading their best prospects, expect a free-agent signing rather than a trade if they go that route. And since Matt Garza and Ervin Santana would likely be out of their price range, Jimenez could certainly be a target for Pittsburgh as long as his price tag is reasonable. 

Investing long-term in a pitcher who might need to be “fixed” again is risky. But that’s also the reason he’ll probably come at a cheaper price than Garza or Santana. And if Liriano (pictured) continues his dominance and Jimenez shows up as the same pitcher he was over the last four months of 2013, the Bucs will be in a strong position to return to the postseason as legitimate World Series contenders.

Here’s a look at what that rotation might look like…

1 Francisco Liriano, LHP
2 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
3 Gerrit Cole, RHP
4 Wandy Rodriguez, LHP
5 Charlie Morton, RHP/Jeff Locke, LHP/Jameson Taillon, RHP 

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The Free Agent Market could be open for business as early as next Monday, and while it had appeared to be shaping up late in the regular season, it turns out that it was far from settled. 

Pricey contract extensions for Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum, as well as rumored $100 million asking prices for Shin-Shoo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, indicate that teams may have to ante up big dollars for the best players on the market.  

In addition, several free agents-to-be boosted their stock with strong playoff performances. Others hurt their value by showing that they might not be very good when the games are most important. 

Here’s a look at how the 2013 postseason has changed the playoff picture.

Jacoby Ellsbury: $100 million man

Despite missing nearly three weeks in September with a foot injury, Ellsbury had already done enough to ensure he’d enter the offseason as the top center fielder on the free agent market.

But a $100 million deal, as was suggested by his agent Scott Boras in an interview with CBS Sports last month, seemed steep considering he hadn’t shown the power that made him a finalist for the AL MVP award in 2011. Considering that a similar player, Michael Bourn, got four years and $48 million the previous offseason, a reasonable projection for the 30-year-old Ellsbury would be somewhere around five years and $70 million. 

This is no longer the case, though. Ellsbury, who has been the catalyst for the Sox during their World Series run with a .902 OPS, 17 hits, 11 runs and six stolen bases in 12 games, is doing everything in his power to increase his value.

Pence’s $90 million deal helps, but it’s Ellsbury’s playoff performance that might actually push him into the $100 million territory. 

Carlos Beltran putting injury concerns to rest

Including the playoffs, Beltran has averaged 154 games per season since 2011, his ages 34-36 seasons. After leaving Game 1 of the World Series after robbing a homer with a rib injury, he was back in the lineup for Game 2. He went 2-for-4 with an RBI single to add on to one of the most impressive postseason resume’s of all-time. 

The knee troubles that caused him to miss most of the 2009-2010 seasons appear to be a thing of the past, and he’ll be paid accordingly. It’s his talent on the field that could net him as much as $20 million per season this offseason. It’s his ability to stay on the field—even this late in the season—that will give at least one team enough confidence to give him a three-year deal.

Clutch hitting will overshadow Mike Napoli’s hip condition

There’s no doubt that the degenerative hip condition that caused the Red Sox to pull a three-year, $39 million deal off the table last winter is going to be an issue for Napoli again. But the fact that he started 131 games at first base—his first year as a regular first baseman—and put up impressive numbers during the regular season (.842 OPS, 23 HR, 92 RBI) will make it much less of an issue. 

And if there was still any doubt, consider that the 31-year-old has had several big hits in the postseason, including a game-winning homer against Justin Verlander in the ALCS and a three-run double to open the scoring in the World Series, and he has not been hindered one bit by his hip condition.

The question is no longer whether he’ll get a multi-year deal or not. It’s whether he’ll get two or three years.

Add Brian Wilson to the list of top free agent closers

The former Giants closer didn’t even get a save opportunity during his two-month stint with the Dodgers. But by the playoffs, it was clear that Wilson had returned to form after missing all of 2012 and most of 2013 recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

After allowing just one earned run in 13.2 innings over 18 regular season appearances, the 31-year-old was even better in the postseason. As the primary setup man to closer Kenley Jansen, Wilson pitched six shutout innings with two walks, eight strikeouts, a win and two holds. 

Those might be the last “holds” he records for a couple of seasons. He should land a closer’s gig this winter.

“Left Fielder” Jhonny Peralta near the top of the shortstop and third base markets

Peralta returned from a 50-game P.E.D. suspension late in the season to find he had lost his starting shortstop job to defensive whiz Jose Iglesias. The Tigers needed his bat in the lineup, however, so they got creative. 

For the first time in his professional career, the 31-year-old played in the outfield. He also went 11-for-33 in the playoffs with three doubles and a homer. Does it mean he’ll be recruited as a starting outfielder this offseason? Probably not. But that’s only because several teams will be trying to sign him to be their shortstop or third baseman. 

It’s not exactly the deepest market for those positions, which is why Peralta’s suspension will have limited impact on his value. 

Juan Uribe will be a starting third baseman in 2014

The Dodgers gave Uribe a three-year, $21 million deal after a 2010 season in which he posted a .749 OPS with 24 homers for the Giants. But it’s extremely likely that he may have earned himself that third year or a few more million dollars after some clutch hitting in the playoffs. 

Uribe hit a game-winning homer in the deciding NLCS Game 6 win over the Phillies. He also hit a big three-run homer in Game 1 of the World Series. He didn’t do much else, but his impact was clear in front of a national audience. 

Fast-forward to 2013, and Uribe is coming off of a season in which he posted a .769 OPS with 12 homers and has been named a finalist for the Gold Glove award for third basemen. He came up big again in the playoffs, including another game-winning homer in the deciding game of a series. 

Regardless of how bad he was in 2011-2012 (.552 OPS), Uribe shouldn’t have a hard time finding a starting job in what is a very weak market for third basemen. 

Where have you gone, Edward Mujica? 

A 29-year-old All-Star closer who is coming off of a season in which he saved 37 games, posted a 2.78 ERA and walked only five batters in 64.2 innings should be extremely popular this winter, right? Not so much with Mujica. 

If his own team doesn’t have enough faith to use him in anything more than mop-up duty during the playoffs, why would teams interested in a closer look to Mujica ahead of Wilson, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Joe Nathan or Fernando Rodney? 

It’s his own doing after a terrible September (7.1 IP, 9 ER, 18 H), but Mujica’s value has took a tremendous hit in a short amount of time, and the Cardinals aren’t helping by not letting him pitch this postseason.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Careful: The question posed above might just be a trick one. But we’ll get to that in a bit.

First, let’s remind readers what Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz have done so far this October in helping get their respective teams, the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox, to the 2013 World Series.

Beltran, 36, has continued to make his case as perhaps the best postseason performer ever (at least on a per-game basis) by hitting .256/.383/.538 with two homers, six extra-base hits and 12 RBI—tops among all players—in his 11 games. He’s done all sorts of Beltran things this month, all of which have helped him reach the World Series for the first time in his 16 years in the majors.

Here’s a refresher:

As for Ortiz, well, the Red Sox’s slugging designated hitter is headed to his third career Fall Classic, but he hasn’t been nearly as hot as Beltran. The 37-year-old Ortiz is hitting just .200 but does have a .349 OBP and .486 SLG, and he’s still come up big in some key spots, as per usual.

Certainly, Beltran and Ortiz have had all sorts of individual postseason successes, to the point where both come complete with their very own October lore.

Consider their career playoff numbers, laid out in table format:

Clearly, if Major League Baseball were to open up a Hall of Fame for October-only efforts, Beltran and Ortiz would be among the inaugural class of inductees.

Which brings us back to that title question: Would an epic World Series performance from either (or conceivably both) punch their ticket(s) to the H-O-F?

To answer that, we have to, of course, consider their regular-season numbers. After all, aside from maybe 1960 World Series hero Bill Mazeroski, nobody gets into Cooperstown predominantly on their postseason résumé—even ones as spectacular as Beltran’s and Ortiz’s. 

Here are their career numbers from April through September:

The quick-and-dirty assessment is that it’s possible, even likely, that neither Beltran nor Ortiz reach the traditional milestones of 3,000 hits or 500 home runs. Still, both have remained extremely productive into their late 30s and could conceivably have another two or three years to tack onto their current digits.

Beltran’s strongest argument is that he’s been among the best players of his generation for the better part of a decade-and-a-half.

For instance, an All-Star-caliber season is considered by FanGraphs to be worth 4.0-plus WAR (fWAR), and Beltran has reached that standard nine times in his 16-year career. Except because he dealt with various injuries at times, he actually reached the 100-game plateau only 12 times—which means he was an All-Star player virtually every single full season. That has him firmly entrenched in the top five among active players in fWAR.

Beltran, by the way, is one of only eight players in baseball history with at least 300 steals and 300 homers. While three of the members of that group—Bobby Bonds, Reggie Sanders and Steve Finley—come up short in terms of Hall of Fame careers, the other four—Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez and Andre Dawson—are all either in or would be were it not for links to performance-enhancing drugs.

Sure, Beltran isn’t quite up to par with each of the latter quartet, but he’s clearly better than the former trio.

And because some like to look at All-Star Games as a way to determine whether a player was, in fact, considered a top performer of his era, and thus Hall-worthy, it should at least be mentioned that Beltran has made eight appearances.

By comparison, Ortiz has nine All-star appearances to his name. Like Beltran, Ortiz also has reached 100 games in 12 seasons, and he’s notched 4.0-plus fWAR four times with two other years where he had 3.8 and 3.9.

That may not be as many as one might expect, but it’s actually rather impressive considering Ortiz gets next to no fWAR credit for defense because he’s been a full-time designated hitter for pretty much his entire career.

Ortiz gets the advantage when it comes to Most Valuable Player voting. He finished in the top five in five straight seasons from 2003 through 2007, with his second-place showing in the AL in 2005 the closest he came to nabbing the hardware.

Beltran, on the other hand, only had two top-10 MVP finishes, with his best outcome in 2006 when he came in fourth in the NL.

Of course, it’s pretty clear that Beltran’s all-around game, including his plus defense in the first half of his career, was severely underrepresented in MVP voting, especially compared to Ortiz, who was arguably the AL’s most dominant hitter in the mid-2000s but also got plenty of support from the RBI-rule community.

The Hall of Fame Decision

So what’s the verdict?

Well, Beltran likely won’t be a first-ballot HOFer, but he should get in within his first few years of eligibility. He’s been too good for too long to keep out, much like Vlad Guerrero, another dominant outfielder whose career overlapped with Beltran’s from the late 1990s and on into this decade.

Like Beltran, Ortiz likely would get in on the merits of his on-field performance. He’s arguably one of the five greatest DHs of all time, right up there with Frank Thomas, Paul Molitor, Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez. Still, he’ll have to face questions about that very DH factor (much like Martinez has), and he’ll also need to overcome an even bigger obstacle—his positive test for PEDs, as reported in 2009. If Ortiz doesn’t make it in, that’s likely to be the reason why.

But putting that aside and focusing purely on production, performance and longevity, Beltran and Ortiz have great cases for Cooperstown already.

Fact is, one more epic effort in the postseason during this World Series isn’t going to be what punches their ticket to the Hall of Fame. While that would only add to their causes and be another feather in their October caps, both Beltran and Ortiz very likely have enough to get in as is. Like, right now.

And yet, they’re still going strong enough to push even closer to that outcome.

A big, fat Fall Classic showing won’t hurt, obviously. But is it necessary? Not likely. Hence the trick part to the question posed above.

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There’s one pitch that might be powerful enough to keep the Boston Red Sox from winning the World Series.

That pitch is Michael Wacha’s changeup. ‘Tis a thing of great power and beauty, and it will soon be on display in the World Series.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny named Wacha his starter for Game 2 of the World Series on Thursday at Fenway Park. That’s when the Red Sox will get their first look at the rookie right-hander’s signature pitch, and it’s obviously possible that they’ll have to do battle with it again later in the series.

They better be ready for it. Wacha’s changeup is no ordinary changeup, and it’s a pitch that appears to present a troubling matchup for Boston’s high-powered offense.

We can start by discussing that first part.

The Wacha Changeup Appreciation Hour

When the Cardinals first drafted Wacha out of Texas A&M last June, B/R’s Mike Rosenbaum wrote that he had the best changeup in the 2012 draft class, one that that might eventually rate as high as 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale.

Here we are a little over a year later, and that sounds about right. If anything, a 65 or 70 grade for Wacha’s changeup might be conservative. As SI.com’s Cliff Corcoran recently put it: “It seems the best strategy against Wacha’s changeup is to take the pitch and hope that it’s called a ball.”

That’s actually not an exaggeration, as swinging at Wacha’s changeup hasn’t tended to go well.

Per Brooks Baseball, Wacha’s changeup boasts a whiff/swing rate of 40.20 percent between the regular season and the postseason. Not many right-handers are capable of wandering into that sort of territory with their changeups.

In fact, only eight did this year, according to Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboard. Their names: Joe Blanton, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Corey Kluber, Kris Medlen, Stephen Strasburg and Jarrod Parker. 

Another thing about Wacha’s changeup is that it’s not a platoon pitch. Most right-handers use changeups as out pitches against left-handed batters, but Wacha’s changeup is an equal opportunity out-getter.

Left-handed batters have hit just .234 against Wacha’s changeup with zero extra-base hits. Right-handed batters have done even worse to the tune of an .098 average and only one extra-base hit.

Yes, you read that correctly. Wacha has pitched 85.2 innings between the regular season and postseason and thrown a total of 353 changeups. Only one of those has been hit for extra bases, and it was a mere double. That’s next to 43 strikeouts and only seven walks.

It’s not any one thing that makes Wacha’s changeup so special. It’s a combination of things. In fact, his changeup pretty well fits the model of an elite changeup that I drew up earlier this summer. It’s masked well, has good velocity separation from his fastball, is located well and is a late-breaker.

The changeup is a pitch that’s supposed to deceive batters, and the deception must start before the pitch even leaves the pitcher’s hand. If a pitcher releases his changeup from a different arm slot than he releases his fastball, he runs the risk of having hitters pick up on that.

Wacha doesn’t do that. To illustrate with images from TexasLeaguers.com, here’s the release point of the changeups Wacha has thrown in the postseason overlayed against the release point of the four-seamers he’s thrown:

The red in the background is the four-seamers Wacha has thrown in October. The green highlights the cluster of changeups he’s thrown. This admittedly isn’t quite an ideal overlay, as Wacha hasn’t been releasing his changeups and his four-seamers from exactly the same spot.

However, that has more to do with how inconsistent Wacha’s fastball release points have been. His changeup release points haven’t been inconsistent, and he’s been releasing them from an angle that’s not decidedly different from the angle he’s been releasing his fastballs. That’ll do for deception.

As for velocity differential, Brooks Baseball has the average velocity of Wacha’s fastball at 94.41 miles per hour and the average velocity of his changeup at 86.73 miles per hour. That’s close to an eight-MPH difference. A 10-MPH difference is ideal, but eight is a big enough gap to get hitters off-balance.

As for location, go ahead and take a look at Wacha’s zone profile over at Brooks Baseball. What you’ll see is that he’s hardly put any changeups out over the plate. Most of them have ended up below the zone and away from the middle of the plate.

Wacha’s command is one thing that’s made that possible. Another thing that’s made it possible is the movement he gets on his changeup. Some changeups are straight, but Wacha’s is a real diver.

One guy who can vouch is Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe. In the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, Uribe struck out swinging on a particularly nasty changeup from Wacha. It looked a little something like this.

If you think that pitched looked nasty on video, wait ’til you see it illustrated in still images.

Here’s where that changeup was just before it was about to cross the plate:

You can tell that the ball had already started to dive, and that Uribe had decided to swing at it. If he was gearing up to swing at a changeup with lesser movement, he would have had a shot.

But this is where that changeup was a fraction of a second later:

The changeup Wacha threw Uribe completely disappeared. If we smush together the two images we just looked at, the movement was basically this:

No wonder Uribe couldn’t hit that pitch. In the blink of an eye, it both fell off the table and basically traversed the width of the plate. Wacha’s changeup is liable to do that when he throws it, and it’s a big reason why hitters have been so baffled by it ever since he arrived in the show.

Such is the weapon that the Red Sox are going to be up against in the World Series, but now comes the time for the big question. Why should the Red Sox, the very team that led MLB in scoring in the regular season, be particularly worried about Wacha’s changeup? 

It’s simple: Hitting changeups isn’t exactly their specialty.

Red Sox and Changeups Don’t Mix

Some teams are better than others at hitting certain pitches.

One way we know this is thanks to the pitch values kept over at FanGraphs. The simplest one keeps track of how many runs above average individual players and whole teams generate against individual pitches, and that’s where we’re turning our eyes now.

The Red Sox could certainly handle fastballs in 2013. They generated more fastball runs above average than any other team, and by a significant margin to boot. 

But when it came to changeups, the Red Sox were really just OK. They generated just 4.5 changeup runs above average, good for 12th in the league.

The catch is that Mike Carp, Daniel Nava and Quintin Berry were three of Boston’s most productive hitters against changeups. Unless John Farrell decides to start playing Nava in left field over Jonny Gomes against right-handed pitchers again, all three of them will be spending most of their time on the bench in the World Series.

That’s going to mean a shortage of good changeup hitters in Farrell’s starting nine when Wacha is on the mound. And if we narrow things down to changeups from right-handed pitchers using data from Brooks Baseball, the picture for the Red Sox doesn’t change for the better.

Here’s how their projected starting lineup has fared against right-handed changeups this year (regular season and postseason combined):

*These numbers encompass only Victorino’s days as an exclusive right-handed hitter, which Sports on Earth says began after August 4.

Jacoby Ellsbury has done well against righty changeups, hitting for both a solid average and good power. David Ortiz has demolished righty changeups, hitting for an excellent average and excellent power.

But everyone else? There’s not much there but a whole lot of “meh.”

Shane Victorino has hardly been exposed to righty changeups since he started batting exclusively right-handed, and has done little against the ones he’s seen. Dustin Pedroia hasn’t hit righty changeups for power, which makes that mediocre average out to be a hollow one. Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have been strikeout magnets against righty changeups. Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew and Xander Bogaerts basically haven’t done anything against them.

Knowing this, it’s not a shocker that the Red Sox didn’t have an answer for the changeups featured by the Detroit Tigers’ big three in the American League Championship Series.

Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each throw a changeup, and they each broke theirs out in the ALCS. Here’s how the Red Sox did against them:

Verlander didn’t throw his changeup that much in Game 3, choosing instead to use his slider and curveball as his go-to secondaries. But Sanchez and Scherzer went to their changeups a lot, and enjoyed a bit of success doing so. They both got more strikeouts on their changeups than they allowed hits.

In all, five hits in 29 at-bats ending in changeups isn’t good. That’s a .172 average, and it’s attached to a mere .104 ISO. 

Since changeups gave the Red Sox trouble in the regular season and continued to confound them in the ALCS against Detroit’s big three, Wacha has an open invitation to go to his as often as he can in the World Series. 

And don’t be surprised if Wacha and Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist come up with a game plan to do just that. After all, this Cardinals team has already provided one example that shows it knows its scouting reports.

Take Adam Wainwright against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was going up against a team that ranked third from the bottom in curveball runs above average in the regular season, so it’s not the least bit surprising that Wainwright upped the usage of his curveball in the two starts he made against them in the National League Division Series.

Per Brooks Baseball, curveballs accounted for just over 27 percent of Wainwright’s pitches in the regular season. Against the Pirates in the NLDS, nearly 40 percent of Wainwright’s pitches were curveballs.

And it worked. Waino allowed only three hits and struck out 12 with his curveball. All three of the hits were singles.

If exploiting a weakness against a particular pitch could work for Wainwright against the Pirates, then it could work for Wacha against the Red Sox. And alas, exactly how the Red Sox should respond if Wacha goes to a changeup-heavy approach against them is an “easier said than done” scenario.

One goes back to Corcoran’s quip about just taking it and hoping it’s a ball. We know from Wacha’s tendency to leave his changeup below the strike zone that that’s not the worst idea in the world—for anyone who’s curious, Wacha hasn’t deviated from this habit in October.

The act of taking Wacha’s changeup for a ball, however, requires recognizing it. Because Wacha’s changeup is well-masked and a late-mover, recognizing it is hardly easy. And indeed, that the Red Sox have struggled as a team to hit right-handed changeups this season is a clear indication that they’re not loaded with guys who are good at recognizing changeups.

Only Ellsbury and Ortiz seem to have a knack for it. Against them, Wacha will have to tread carefully. The rest of the lineup, however, may have to just hope to do damage against any hangers that might come across the plate.

For you Red Sox fans out there, there may not seem to be much hope in that last statement. But hey, remember this: the Red Sox just won a pennant on a hanging pitch. Perhaps the baseball gods shall will it to happen again.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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We know the when and half of the who, but we don’t yet know the where.

The World Series begins on Wednesday, Oct. 23, and the St. Louis Cardinals have punched their ticket after a dominating 9-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series.

The American League representative, however, remains TBD, and as such, so does the site of Games 1 and 2 of the Fall Classic. With the Junior Circuit’s 3-0 blanking of the Senior back in July, the AL champ will get home field, but whether that will be in Boston or Detroit depends on how the rest of the weekend plays out.

The Red Sox are leading the Tigers three games to two heading into Saturday’s Game 6, and if necessary, a winner-take-all Game 7 will be Sunday. We’ll know soon enough which club gets to host the Cardinals, but in the meantime, here’s how the three teams stack up based on their lineups, rotations and bullpens, starting in each case with the club that’s already advanced.

Lineups

Catcher

Cardinals: Yadier Molina and Tony Cruz

Red Sox: Jarrod Saltalamacchia and David Ross

Tigers: Alex Avila and Brayan Pena

Boston has a very strong veteran duo, and Saltalamacchia has beat up right-handers this year (.294/.350/.523), which is the arm all Cardinals starters use to throw. Similarly, the lefty-hitting Avila, whose knee injury puts his status in question, can hold his own against righties (.767 OPS versus .455 against southpaws). Still, Molina is inarguably the best all-around backstop in the sport, so St. Louis has this one won, no matter who they play.

Rank: Cardinals, Red Sox, Tigers

First Base

Cardinals: Matt Adams

Red Sox: Mike Napoli

Tigers: Prince Fielder

Napoli, the lone right-handed hitter of this trio, gets the edge here because he’s been the hottest of the three in the postseason (.969 OPS) and is also the best defender. Fielder (.587 OPS) and Adams (.724) both have the potential to do major damage—they just haven’t. Especially Fielder, who sports a career average of .199 in the playoffs and hasn’t driven in a run since the ALCS…in 2012. Not so crazy to think Adams, a 25-year-old rookie, might be the better option in October.

Rank: Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals

Second Base

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter

Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia

Tigers: Omar Infante

Despite strong seasons from each, none is playing particularly well at the moment, but ol’ reliable Pedroia’s all-around game—and postseason experience—gives him the top spot over Carpenter, the position’s breakout player of the year.

Rank: Red Sox, Cardinals, Tigers

Third Base

Cardinals: David Freese

Red Sox: Will Middlebrooks or Xander Bogaerts

Tigers: Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has to be the choice here, even with all of the injury issues that are hampering him. Meanwhile, Freese, the Cardinals’ postseason hero from 2011, is hitting .189 and battling Middlebrooks (.174) for who can post a lower batting average this month, which is why Boston has turned to 21-year-old rookie Bogaerts, according to Joe McDonald of ESPN Boston.

Rank: Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox

Shortstop

Cardinals: Pete Kozma

Red Sox: Stephen Drew

Tigers: Jose Iglesias or Jhonny Peralta

More ineptitude here, as all three primary shortstops are hitting .200 or below, with Kozma leading the way at 5-for-25, barely ahead of Iglesias at 4-for-22. Drew, though, has been particularly atrocious, with just three hits in 32 at-bats—and 10 strikeouts. Detroit wins out, mainly because Peralta’s production (11-for-30, 1 HR, 6 RBI) has to count somewhere.

Rank: Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox

Outfield

Cardinals: Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Jon Jay

Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava or Jonny Gomes

Tigers: Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson, Jhonny Peralta or Andy Dirks

This is a close call, because St. Louis has those two big-name big-hitting bats in Beltran—a postseason god—and Holliday, but all three (including Jay) struggle on defense. The Red Sox are being driven by Ellsbury’s on-base ability (.463 OBP), speed (Red Sox playoff record six steals) and D. The Tigers, on the other hand, lack star power but might have the best third outfielder (at least offensively) when Peralta plays left field.

Rank: Cardinals, Red Sox, Tigers

Designated Hitter

Cardinals: Allen Craig or Shane Robinson or Daniel Descalso

Red Sox: David Ortiz

Tigers: Victor Martinez

Ortiz and Martinez are closer than you’d think given how hot Martinez is and how much Ortiz is struggling of late. Yes, he hit that game-tying grand slam in Game 2, but he has only one other hit in the ALCS so far. The Cards are a distant third, unless a healthy enough Craig can make it back from a foot injury that’s kept him out since Sept. 4. Otherwise, they’ll be relying on bench bats that shouldn’t be starting a postseason game, let alone as many as four in the World Series. Remember: The AL’s home-field advantage puts St. Louis at a severe disadvantage here.

Rank: Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals

Bench

Cardinals: Robinson, Descalso, Adron Chambers, Kolten Wong

Red Sox: Gomes, Nava, Bogaerts, Mike Carp, Quintin Berry

Tigers: Dirks, Don Kelly, Ramon Santiago, Hernan Perez

This one ain’t close, as Boston’s bench is superb, providing everything from offense to defense to speed. The Cards come up way short here again, especially if Craig can’t be at least a pinch-hitter.

Rank: Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals

Rotations

Cardinals: Adam Wainwright (RHP), Michael Wacha (RHP), Lance Lynn (RHP), Joe Kelly (RHP)

Red Sox: Jon Lester (LHP), Clay Buchholz (RHP), John Lackey (RHP), Jake Peavy (RHP)

Tigers: Max Scherzer (RHP), Justin Verlander (RHP), Anibal Sanchez (RHP), Doug Fister (RHP)

Detroit’s quality and quantity is unmatched, so the Tigers are a notch above the Cardinals, whose top two have proved to be a dominating duo that the Red Sox just don’t quite have. The only edge Boston gets here? Lester is the lone lefty of all of the above, which might make things a bit more challenging for St. Louis’ same-sided bats like Adams, Carpenter and Jay.

Rank: Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox

Bullpens

Cardinals: Trevor Rosenthal (RHP), Carlos Martinez (RHP), Kevin Siegrist (LHP), Randy Choate (LHP), John Axford (RHP), Edward Mujica (RHP), Seth Maness (RHP), Shelby Miller (RHP)

Red Sox: Koji Uehara (RHP), Junichi Tazawa (RHP), Craig Breslow (LHP), Brandon Workman (RHP), Felix Doubront (LHP), Franklin Morales (LHP), Ryan Dempster (RHP)

Tigers: Joaquin Benoit (RHP), Jose Veras (RHP), Drew Smyly (LHP), Al Alburquerque (RHP), Jose Alvarez (LHP), Phil Coke (LHP), Rick Porcello (RHP)

While Detroit’s relief corps has been exposed at times (lookin’ at you, Mr. Benoit), Boston’s bullpen has been a revelation this month—Uehara and Tazawa are the only two who have given up a run. Still, it’s hard to match what St. Louis brings to the table, as far as a deep ‘pen full of dynamic and specialist arms.

Rank: Cardinals, Red Sox, Tigers

Head-to-Head Breakdowns

Having run down all three teams, here’s a sneak-peek preview of how each matchup would shape up, depending on which American League squad joins the Cardinals in the World Series.

If the Red Sox advance…

The Cardinals would have the biggest advantages at catcher and in the rotation, while also holding slight edges at third base, outfield and in the bullpen. However, they would have to make up for shortcomings against Boston at designated hitter and on the bench.

The Cardinals probably get a slight overall edge in a head-to-head against the Red Sox, who have shown that elite pitching and power arms—St. Louis has both—can handle their top-notch offense. Craig’s availability would be an X-factor here, because it would help the Cards get a bit closer with the sticks, particularly considering the DH would come into play in Games 1 and 2 and, if necessary, 6 and 7.

If the Tigers advance…

St. Louis would have the upper hand at catcher, outfield and in the bullpen, while stacking up fairly well at second base, too. But the Cards would be lacking compared to Detroit at third base, designated hitter, on the bench and in the rotation.

This might be the more competitive of the two potential series, given that both teams can throw some of the best arms around on the mound. Again, Craig’s availability may wind up being a key to combating Detroit’s staff, whereas the injuries to Cabrera and Avila and postseason struggles of Fielder could make St. Louis the favorite.

It’s not really worth wondering whether the Cardinals would quote-unquote prefer to face the Red Sox or Tigers, because they’ll find out which opponent they’ll face soon enough.

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Of all the ways the Los Angeles Dodgers could have pictured their 2013 season coming to an end, Clayton Kershaw getting rocked in a must-win game probably never crossed their minds.

But that’s what happened in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series Friday night. The St. Louis Cardinals got to Kershaw for four runs in the third inning, in which they were aided by a poorly timed Yasiel Puig-y throw by Yasiel Puig. The Cardinals tacked on five more runs in the fifth inning to put the game out of reach and went on to win by the final of 9-0. 

Oh, don’t sit there and weep for the Dodgers. They didn’t succeed in making it to the World Series, but they did succeed in proving that their model for being a title contender is one they can make work.

That model can be summed up in four words: spend money, win games.

Yes, the Dodgers have made some poor investments since Magic Johnson and his partners took control early in 2012. Extending Andre Ethier for $85 million was puzzling. Taking on the bulk of Josh Beckett’s remaining contract in last August’s trade with the Boston Red Sox didn’t work out. Signing Brandon League to a $20 million deal over the winter was never a good idea.

But then there are the smart investments. Agreeing to take on Hanley Ramirez’s remaining contract in a deal with the Miami Marlins paid off in a big way. So did dishing out over $40 million to sign Puig. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez didn’t go bust the way Beckett did. Signing Zack Greinke for $147 million is looking like a fair deal. Signing Hyun-Jin Ryu for $36 million is looking like a steal.

Buying wins is not as easy as the New York Yankees have made it look for so many years. Heck, just look at how things have crashed and burned in Anaheim. It’s easy to make big investments. It’s a lot harder to hit on big investments. 

The Dodgers did just that and ultimately came two wins away from the World Series. They deserve their due credit for the season they had.

But now the matter at hand is where the Dodgers go from here. After opening their window to contend for World Series titles in 2013, how do they open it even wider and make sure it stays open?

Their first order of business this winter should concern the latter half of that equation. If they want to make sure their window to contend for titles stays open for as long as possible, they need to quit stalling and tie that one left-handed guy up for the long haul.

He may have fallen flat in Game 6 of the NLCS, but the Dodgers still have plenty of reasons to make Kershaw the richest pitcher in baseball history. He’s coming off a season that saw him post a 1.83 ERA, and he leads all pitchers in ERA and ERA+ since the start of the 2010 season. Kershaw has the look of an all-time great pitcher, and he’s not even 26 yet.

Signing Kershaw to a long-term extension could cost the Dodgers as much as $30 million per year. Whatever the cost, they can pay it. And barring some weird cosmic forces invading Chavez Ravine, you have to think they are going to pay it.

If the Dodgers really want to make it rain, they’ll extend Kershaw and sign the winter’s top free agent: current Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano. However, Johnson told USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale earlier this month that the Dodgers aren’t going to be the team to pay Cano, and imagining the organization paying both Kershaw and Cano this winter is admittedly hard to do.

Especially considering that they could sign several players for the price of one Cano.

On the radar will be the Dodgers infield, which will need some new additions this winter. Third baseman Juan Uribe is slated to test the free-agent waters, and second baseman Mark Ellis will follow him if the Dodgers decline to pick up his $5.75 million club option.

Cano would obviously be a monster upgrade over Ellis, but the Dodgers can find another upgrade over Ellis for much cheaper.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Dodgers have re-entered the mix for Cuban infielder Alex Guerrero after having a deal with him fall through over the summer. Bleacher Report’s Mike Rosenbaum likes Guerrero’s power potential, and the Dodgers would appear to like it too.

And since the Dodgers scored big with their past two international signings (Puig and Ryu), arguing with their apparent fondness for Guerrero isn’t recommended.

The first deal the Dodgers and Guerrero had in place was supposedly worth $32 million over five years. Now the word from Heyman is that Guerrero wants only a four-year deal. He could be signed for under $30 million, which is obviously something the Dodgers can handle.

As for what to do at third base, the Dodgers could just re-sign Uribe. He was quietly a productive player on both sides of the ball in 2013, posting a .769 OPS and ranking behind only Manny Machado among MLB third basemen in Ultimate Zone Rating, according to FanGraphs.

But rather than simply re-signing Uribe, a better idea for the Dodgers would be to move Ramirez to third base. He actually had a good year defensively at shortstop, but moving Ramirez to third base is in his health’s interest. And of course, it would also mean a massive offensive upgrade at the hot corner, and it would open the window for a solid shortstop to slide into the mix.

The guy on the free-agent market who should strike the Dodgers’ fancy is Stephen Drew. He got off to a slow start in April and May, but he posted an .824 OPS in his final 82 games while also playing solid defense at short. Per FanGraphs, Drew’s 5.3 UZR placed him 12th among shortstops.

In swapping Uribe for Drew and moving Ramirez to third base, the Dodgers would be getting a defensive upgrade at short and an offensive upgrade for third base. That Drew is younger and has a better bat than Uribe is icing on the cake.

As for what it would take to sign Drew, it’s likely going to take a multiyear deal. And given that his salary was $9.5 million this year, it’ll probably take at least $10 or $11 million per year to get him to listen. A deal in the neighborhood of $40 million sounds about right.

And that, of course, is another deal the Dodgers can handle.

If the Dodgers let Uribe and Ellis go and sign Guerrero and Drew and move Ramirez to third base, they could trot out the following lineup:

If they don’t choose to trade him this offseason, Ethier could be used as a platoon partner for Matt Kemp and/or Puig. The Dodgers would be loaded offensively.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers are already well off. Whether he’s extended or not, Kershaw will be back next year. So will Beckett and Chad Billingsley, who will do fine as back-of-the-rotation options. Greinke and Ryu are signed long term.

But with the door open for the Dodgers to acquire a starting pitcher this winter, they might as well go for the biggest prize of them all: Tampa Bay Rays lefty David Price.

With a big payday via arbitration due up this winter, Price is as good as dealt—and he knows it. And if ESPN’s Buster Olney is to be believed, the Dodgers are going to be among the more aggressive bidders for the 2012 American League Cy Young winner.

The Dodgers have the pieces to go get Price. The Rays might like the idea of adding Joc Pederson to their outfield and/or Zach Lee to their stable of young pitchers. Or they could try to pry prized infield prospect Corey Seager from the Dodgers, who might figure that getting Price is worth giving up a potential heir apparent for Ramirez on the left side of their infield.

Regardless, the Dodgers are in a good position to empty the farm for Price. There’s little point in them waiting for their best prospects to be ready while their window to contend is wide open, and they could afford to sign Price to a long-term extension upon his arrival. His free-agent years don’t kick in until after 2015, and by then the Dodgers will have Beckett’s and Billingsley‘s contracts off the books.

The best-case scenario involves the Dodgers both extending Kershaw and then trading for and extending Price. If they pull it off, they’ll have a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, Price and Ryu locked up for several years. 

From there, the only gem left to polish off would be the bullpen. The Dodgers already have an elite closer in Kenley Jansen. Before he ran out of gas at the end of the year, Paco Rodriguez was a stud. That leaves a quality right-handed setup man as the outstanding need. If the Dodgers don’t re-up with Brian Wilson, it would be worth it for them to roll the dice on the oft-injured Jesse Crain.

That’s my vision of a perfect Dodgers shopping spree for the offseason: Kershaw, Price, Guerrero, Drew and a righty setup man. One big extension, one big acquisition, two solid acquisitions and one minor acquisition.

It might not come off as much of a haul compared to the big moves the Dodgers made in 2012, but hey, it’s not like this is a team that needs a completely new look. The Dodgers already have loads of talent, and it must be noted that Kemp might still have some MVP-caliber seasons in him if he can stay healthy.

Given that the Dodgers are already World Series contenders, this is a team that merely needs a few adjustments. And no matter how it all goes down, a few adjustments are coming.

Love ’em or hate ’em, the Dodgers aren’t about to be content with Game 6 of the NLCS as a high-water mark.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary and contract info courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Dodgers‘ magical season ended with an ugly 9-0 loss versus the Cardinals at the hands of rookie pitcher and NLCS MVP Michael Wacha, who tossed 13.2 scoreless innings while defeating ace Clayton Kershaw for the second time in the series. 

While there is plenty of disappointment that they fell short of their ultimate goal of winning a World Championship, the loss could result in an even more exciting offseason if it results in ownership pursuing one or two more star players. 

In reality, they’re still a very good team. They won 67 of their last 100 games, and none of their best players are eligible for free agency. Ownership has extremely deep pockets. The team had the best home attendance in baseball. And they have a lot of money coming off of the books after the season.

So, keep your heads up, Dodgers fans. The window of contention is still wide open for this group. 

If general manager Ned Colletti can avoid another Brandon League-like debacle—League was a bust after being re-signed to a three-year, $22.5 million deal at the beginning of last offseason—he has a chance to put together the finishing pieces to what could be the most talented roster in baseball… on paper. 

Here’s everything you’ll need to know before Colletti and the front office get started.

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It’s impossible to imagine the opening three games of the American League Championship Series playing out any better for the Detroit Tigers. And yet, it’s impossible to imagine the outcomes being any worse.

Despite a third straight unequivocally dominant effort by a starting pitcher, the Tigers somehow trail the Boston Red Sox two games to one.

Justin Verlander, who had thrown 15 scoreless frames in two outings in the division series, was his ho-hum self, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out 10 over eight more near-perfect innings. The right-hander, though, made one mistake and paid for it when Mike Napoli launched a solo home run to left field in the top of the seventh.

That run held up in a 1-0 Red Sox win in Game 3.

Here’s the proof Verlander is, in fact, fallible:

That, by the way, was the first run Verlander allowed since his third-to-last regular-season start, which came on Sept. 18—almost a month ago.

It’s impossible to imagine a scenario in which Tigers starters Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer and Verlander—as fantastic as they are—could have been any better than they were in Games 1, 2 and 3.

Consider this stat, from Doug Miller of MLB.com, which was pointed out prior to Game 3:

The Tigers became the first team in postseason history to post three straight games in which their starting pitcher opened with at least five no-hit innings. Verlander pitched 6 2/3 no-hit innings to open Game 5 of the AL Division Series vs. Oakland; Sanchez and relievers Al Alburquerque, Jose Veras, Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit no-hit the Red Sox through 8 1/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALCS; and Scherzer opened Game 2 with 5 2/3 no-hit innings.

And in Tuesday’s Game 3, Verlander came within one out of extending that streak to four consecutive games to start out with a no-hitter through five innings.

Although Sanchez, Scherzer and Verlander allowed a total of just six hits and only two runs in 21 combined innings, the Tigers trail 2-1. How is such a thing even possible? Well, while Boston has scored all of seven runs in total through three contests, the Tigers have mustered one fewer, because they have repeatedly failed to get a key hit in a big spot.

Speaking of big spots, in Game 3 alone, Detroit had three instances of a runner on third base, two of which came with fewer than two outs. Each time the lineup failed to get in what would have been the tying run.

The biggest such situation, no doubt, came in the bottom of the eighth inning, by which time the Tigers had managed to get Boston’s John Lackey (6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 8:0 K:BB) out of the game.

With Austin Jackson on third and Torii Hunter on first, up to the dish stepped the very heart of Detroit’s order, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. A fly ball, a slow roller, a mishit poke of a single was all that was needed to knot the game.

Cabrera and Fielder, though, could manage none of those things. Instead, the game’s greatest hitter (admittedly playing at well below 100 percent due to groin and abdominal injuries) and one of its top lefty sluggers struck out on a combined seven pitches, against setup man Junichi Tazawa and closer Koji Uehara, respectively.

Here’s video evidence of that opportunity being whiffed away:

All in all, the Tigers left seven men on base in Game 3 and have tallied 25 through the first three contests. The Red Sox, by comparison, have been so shut down offensively that they’ve left “only” 16 hanging.

And that’s what has to be so scary for Detroit. At some point, one imagines, the Red Sox offense will wake up, or at least start to stir. And when it does, what then? Because, again, as impossible as it is to imagine a scenario in which Detroit’s elite arms pitch any better, it’s also impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Red Sox offense—the best in baseball during the season—could struggle this much.

This is still the same team that triple-slashed .277/.349/.446, posted an MLB-high .795 OPS and scored an MLB-best 5.3 runs per game. In the division series, Boston went .286/.390/.414 for an .803 OPS and 6.5 runs per.

This round? Try .133/.228/.222 for a .450 OPS and 2.3 runs per game.

With at least two games still to play in this ALCS, there’s a pretty good chance that, even against Doug Fister in Game 4 and Sanchez in Game 5, the Red Sox will see some progression to the mean in the form of an uptick in offense.

What’s worse is that Detroit lost its initial outing of this series on its own turf, meaning the Tigers can no longer advance without avoiding a return trip to Boston. The Red Sox might have lost Game 1 at Fenway Park, but they were 53-28 there during the season—that was tops in the AL—and a raucous Boston crowd would only make things that much more challenging for the Tigers.

In more than a few ways, it was fitting that the lights went out, albeit temporarily, at Comerica Park during Game 3. If the Tigers can’t turn the power back on before the Red Sox do, it might be lights out for Detroit. For good.

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The St. Louis Cardinals are an exemplary franchise, but are they on the verge of becoming a dynastic one?

The organization is among the best in baseball, if not all sports, when it comes to recent success, decision-making and player development. All of that has brought about 10 trips to the postseason—including a current spot in this year’s National League Championship Series—and two world championships since 2000.

The pair of titles came during an even more recent window, in 2006 and 2011, and with a chance at what would be a third in only eight seasons, an argument could be made that St. Louis is not only the best club in Major League Baseball but also a dynasty.

Of course, that brings up a key question: Just what is a dynasty?

That’s not necessarily the easiest query to answer. There is, on some level, an objective approach to defining a true dynasty in baseball. That would be a certain number of World Series wins over a specific period of time. Think something like: At least three titles over no more than five years. The actual numbers may vary depending on who’s doing the defining, but there should be some standard.

On another level, though, there’s also a subjective approach to dubbing a team a dynasty, right? This is not all that different from using the sniff test—that initial yes-or-no gut reaction—to determine whether a player is or isn’t a Hall of Famer.

So how does all of this apply to the St. Louis Cardinals exactly? Well, it’s a way to bring them into this dynasty discussion. And that’s what it is in this case—a discussion rather than a definitive yes-or-no answer.

Obviously, if we’re taking the above by-the-numbers approach, then the Cardinals aren’t a slam-dunk dynasty if they do go all the way this season. Three titles in an eight-year stretch is darn impressive, but it’s not three in five. Again, it doesn’t have to be specifically three-in-five (or any other ratio), but what St. Louis could reach to earn the “d-word” label.

The other thing about this 2013 club is that even though it hasn’t been that long since the first championship in 2006, this current version just feels different, doesn’t it? That’s where the gut test comes into play.

Among Cardinals who were on the 2006 team, only right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina remain. (Yes, Chris Carpenter, the longtime ace, is still technically a part of the franchise, but he’s more of a figurehead than a participant at this stage due to injury.)

To that point, while each of the past two World Series-winning Cardinals teams consisted of a collection of quality, All-Star-caliber players, at the heart of it all was Albert Pujols, an iconic superstar who was easily identifiable with St. Louis (until he left for Southern California, that is).

With Pujols no longer around, the aura around the Cardinals has changed. Some might argue it’s actually changed for the better—and they might be right—but regardless, it has changed. 

As much as this season’s success has been driven by veterans like Wainwright and Molina, as well as injured first baseman Allen Craig and outfielder Carlos Beltran (who came to town after the 2011 win, by the way), it’s really built on young breakout players like Matt Carpenter, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Matt Adams and Trevor Rosenthal. None of those youngsters, it’s worth mentioning, have been a part of a World Series winner—or even a World Series—yet.

Change goes beyond just the roster, too. Gone are longtime manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, replaced by Mike Matheny and Derek Lilliquist. Matheny was a part of the organization for the 2011 title, and Lilliquist was for both 2006 and 2011 but not in their current roles, meaning it still would be different this time around.

All of those changes, folks, are a pretty compelling argument against potentially dubbing St. Louis a dynasty this year. If you still find yourself believing the 2013 Cardinals would have to be considered as such, though, should they go on to win the title later this month, ask yourself this: Would the Boston Red Sox be a dynasty if they’re the last team standing in October?

Fact is, the Red Sox are a lot like the Cards: Both franchises have won two titles recently enough, and each has the opportunity to make it three inside of a decade. And yet, even David Ortiz would agree that the roster, regime, makeup and mentality of this year’s Red Sox are nothing at all like the 2004 iteration, those self-proclaimed “Idiots,” or even the 2007 champs, for that matter. (Well, except maybe for the beards.)

Perhaps, though, instead of asking the question posed in the title—would a World Series victory this year make the Cardinals a dynasty—we should be marveling at how seamlessly general manager John Mozeliak and his cohorts have handled this organization’s transition in the past few years. You know, all the changes, alterations and variations spelled out above.

After all, while a third title in eight years might not necessarily make the Cardinals a dynasty, the franchise is set up better than any other in the sport to take a shot at getting there in the future.

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