Tag: Horsehide Chronicles

Why MLB Needs a Position Player Equivalent of the Cy Young Award

Bud Selig has plenty of unfinished business to tackle before he retires after 2014. Some of the more notable things on the MLB commissioner’s docket include expanding instant replay and possibly toughening up the league’s performance-enhancing drug policies in the wake of the Biogenesis scandal.

I’d hereby like to suggest something else for the commissioner to consider before he goes the way of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte: a brand-new award.

What baseball needs is an award that would do for position players what the Cy Young Award has done for pitchers ever since 1956. As it honors the best pitcher in the American and National Leagues, the new award would honor the best all-around position player in each league. The key is that would mean honoring offensive and defensive excellence.

I figure it could be called the “Willie Mays Award,” after the one player who symbolizes a perfect union between offensive and defensive excellence better than any other (the “Ken Griffey Jr. Award” would also work, but I think The Say Hey Kid deserves the nod).

You like?

If you do, great. No need to read any further. Instead, go and tell the people.

If you don’t, you might be sitting there wondering why such an award is needed. There’s a chance you’re also thinking this is just another Mike Trout dillweed writing another Mike Trout dillweed article.

We’ll get to that. But first, here’s Reason No. 1 a Willie Mays Award is a good idea: Because such an award currently doesn’t exist.

The award that comes the closest to doing the job is the Hank Aaron Award. Implemented in 1999, MLB.com calls it a “coveted honor” that is given to the “best overall offensive performer” in the AL and NL. It’s basically the king of all Silver Slugger awards.

But that’s the thing. The lumber is the only thing the Hank Aaron Award cares about. It cares not for what players do with the leather, thereby ignoring half the equation for position players.

Beyond that, the Hank Aaron Award is hardly the most credible award. Rather than being voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America—the organization that votes for the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards—the Hank Aaron Award is decided by fan voting and a five-man panel that includes Aaron himself, Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor, Joe Morgan and Robin Yount (h/t CBSSports.com).

That’s not a bad panel, mind you, but the fan vote portion is a problem because…well, it’s a fan vote. Such things have a tendency to serve as shortcuts to silliness.

So the Hank Aaron Award doesn’t do the job that the Willie Mays Award could do, and the MVP award doesn’t do the job either. It’s perfectly suited to honor the best all-around players, but I think we all know that it doesn’t quite do that.

According to the BBWAA’s official website, the very first guideline given to MVP voters has been the same since 1931. It says to consider the “Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.”

But right above that, it’s stated that there is “no clear-cut definition” of what “Most Valuable” means. The ambiguity of that statement pretty much renders the first guideline moot, and it’s what allows the notion that the MVP is reserved for great players from great teams to perpetuate itself.

Point being: It’s that ambiguity that’s responsible for the fact that the accepted definition of “Most Valuable” leans much more towards the narrative than it does towards the numbers. And that, of course, leaves the door open for excellent all-around players to have excellent all-around seasons that go unrewarded.

And now more than ever before, that’s not right.

This is a day and age when the timing is perfect for the Willie Mays Award to become a reality. The here and now is practically demanding such an award.

In the baseball world, “now” is obviously a drastically different time than “then.” The statistical revolution is ongoing, and it’s impacted both those on the inside (front office execs and the like) and those on the outside (media and the fans) of the game. There are numbers to quantify everything, including the offensive and defensive prowess of position players.

It’s those numbers that the first guideline suggests should be put to good use in MVP voting, but they’re not. For many voters, the narrative is too important.

That’s become clear enough over the years, and it was never more clear than it was in 2012.

This, naturally, would be our cue to finally reference the great Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera conundrum that grabbed hold of the baseball world last year.

Cabrera won the AL MVP because he had a Triple Crown season and led the Detroit Tigers into the postseason, but Trout certainly deserved the award because he was light years better than Cabrera and all other players in baseball while leading the Los Angeles Angels to a superior record in a superior division. Blah, blah, blah. Rabble, rabble, rabble. You know how it goes.

A Willie Mays Award would have come in handy last year. Cabrera presumably still would have walked away with the MVP, but Trout likely would have been a landslide winner in the race for the AL Willie Mays Award. There still would have been moaning that Trout deserved the MVP, but hey, at least he would have gotten an award befitting of the kind of season he had.

But this isn’t just a Trout vs. Cabrera thing brought on by lingering bitterness (mine is almost gone, for the record). I look back and I see a number of players who could have ended up with a well-deserved Willie Mays Award while the MVP went to someone else.

How about Jacoby Ellsbury in 2011? Justin Verlander won the AL MVP, but Ellsbury‘s lead over his peers in FanGraphs WAR that year reflected just how excellent he was at the plate and in the field. He was the best all-around player in the American League that year, no question about it.

See also:

Had there been a Willie Mays Award in place these years, the above players might have gone home with some hardware. That sounds preferable to allowing these great seasons to go unrecognized—swept under the rug to be more easily forgotten by baseball history.

You know, sort of like what used to happen with great pitching seasons before the Cy Young Award was implemented.

And if you’re at all freaked out about whether the implementation of the Willie Mays Award would cheapen the MVP, there’s a lesson to be learned from the history of the Cy Young.

As Arthur Daley of the New York Times told the story, the media wasn’t too crazy about the notion of a special award for pitchers when commissioner Ford C. Frick proposed it in the 1950s:

The press box tenants did not leap enthusiastically at the suggestion and it took an eloquent plea by Frick to budge them. They were afraid that a new plaque might take away from the importance of their two M.V.P. trophies and prevent a pitcher from ever winning one of the major prizes.

Many years later, we know A) that the Cy Young Award hasn’t taken away from the importance of the MVP and B) that the Cy Young Award hasn’t prevented a pitcher from winning the MVP. On the contrary, the Cy Young Award has done no harm whatsoever.

Neither would the Willie Mays Award if it were ever to come into being. Because, once again, the whole idea would be to reward the best position player just as the Cy Young rewards the best pitcher. And with a separate award designed to solve the “best position player” argument, the MVP arguments would be more free to be about…well, what they already are all about: the narrative.

Any voters with different opinions about which player is the “best” and which player is the “most valuable” would be able to prioritize one player for the Willie Mays and the other player for the MVP. Or a voter could favor one player for both awards, like what happened when Verlander won the Cy Young and MVP in 2011.

This is not, however, to suggest that implementing the Willie Mays Award would make things easier for the voters or make it harder for fans to get riled up on the eve of awards season. It’s not like it would be a simple matter of giving the Willie Mays Award to the top WAR hero in each league, as WAR doesn’t always signal offensive and defensive excellence.

For example, consider 2008. Per FanGraphs, Albert Pujols had the highest WAR in the National League that year, but he couldn’t match the defensive prowess of fellow star hitter Chase Utley. 

Other such examples include:

In these years, simply going to the top of the WAR charts wouldn’t have been the best way to choose a winner for the Willie Mays Award. Indeed, doing so wouldn’t be helpful this year.

Andrew McCutchen has the top fWAR in the National League, but his defensive excellence pales in comparison to the defensive excellence of Carlos Gomez. Since he’s also been terrific offensively, maybe he would be the right choice for the Willie Mays Award rather than McCutchen. That’s where the rabbling could begin.

There’s even a debate to be had in the American League. Trout has been amazing, but his balance of offensive and defensive excellence isn’t quite as even as that of Josh Donaldson. But since Trout’s the one who plays the premium defensive position…well, that’s where the rabbling could begin.

So no, implementing a Willie Mays Award wouldn’t suck the fun out of awards season. Factor in how such an award is the right fit for a statistically obsessed league and fanbase. Now factor in how it would reward precisely the kinds of players who have gone unrewarded all too often in the past. And now how it likely wouldn’t negatively impact the MVP award.

How about it, Mr. Selig?

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Previewing Free Agent Names the Atlanta Braves Should Be Chasing This Offseason

Like the Red Sox, whose offseason free agent targets I previewed yesterday, the Braves are one of the best teams in baseball without too many weaknesses on their current roster. The difference is that the Sox have several key players headed for free agency while the Braves have just one—catcher Brian McCann. And they could choose to replace him internally. 

So, barring a quick exit from the playoffs, which could intensify their pursuit of an impact player this winter, it could be a very quiet offseason in Atlanta. That doesn’t mean they won’t have their eye on several free agents who could help strengthen the roster and provide the much-needed depth to compete over a long season. 

Here are some free agents they could pursue in four different areas of potential need.

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Who Are Major League Baseball’s Most Clutch Pitchers?

Clutch can go both ways.

Last week, we looked at the most clutch hitters in Major League Baseball, and this time around, we’ll do the same for pitchers. After all, with playoff berths, positioning on the line and the postseason itself looming, this is when clutch really counts.

Similar to the approach for hitters, we’ll identify a batch of various clutch-related categories and list the hurlers—both starters and relievers—who are in the top 10 in each over the last five seasons (2009-2013) in order to provide a large enough sample size to weigh and measure meaningful performances.

Much like with batters, the key to remember is that clutch isn’t necessarily consistent, meaning a pitcher who has come up big in key spots in the past is not guaranteed to continue to do so. Rather, the results below simply show which arms have managed to be at their best when it has mattered most in the recent past.

With that in mind, here’s the windup and the pitch.

 

Runners in Scoring Position

For this first split, we’re going to go with a general situation in which things start to get tense for the men on the mound.

These are the ERA leaders with runners in scoring position—second and/or third base—from 2009 through 2013 (using a minimum of 75 innings pitched in such situations for starters and 75 innings for relievers):

There are loads of big names on both the starter and reliever sides of this list. In the former, we can point to Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw as perhaps the three best pitchers in the game right now, which is backed up all the more by the fact that they have shown a knack for making big pitches in big spots. Like this:

In the latter group, there are a trio of Proven Closers™ in Jonathan Papelbon, Rafael Soriano and Francisco Rodriguez, as well as a couple of others who have saved a few games over the past few years in righties Brad Ziegler and Tyler Clippard, both of whom have also been among the most consistent setup men in the sport. And lefty Eric O’Flaherty was in that same mix, too, before missing the vast majority of this season with elbow surgery.

Remember, as we continue, it’s worth keeping track of which names come up more than once.

 

Two Outs and Runners in Scoring Position

Now we get a little less taxing on the pitcher, but it’s still no fun having a man within on second or third base, even when only one out is needed.

Again, here are the ERA leaders with two outs and RISP between 2009 and 2013 (using a minimum of 75 innings in such scenarios for starters and 30 for relievers):

There are a bunch of repeats on both fronts, but with regards to the starting pitchers, there are five interesting cases in Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. While none of them have had their best year in 2013, they all have a long history of success in the majors, and this shows just how much they were able to bear down and get that final out with runners only 180 or even 90 feet from scoring.

Among the relievers, there’s a mix of arms with closer experience, like Sergio Romo, Chris Perez, Andrew Bailey and Joaquin Benoit, who took over the job in Detroit this summer in part because of how well he handles pressure.

But there are also a few specialists here in righty sidewinder Darren O’Day and southpaws Scott Downs and Javier Lopez, each of whom are frequently brought into the game with runners already in scoring position—and who often get out of such jams. Like so:

 

Late and Close

As mentioned in the clutch hitter piece, “late and close” is any plate appearance (or batter faced) from the seventh inning on in which the hitting team is either in a tie game, ahead by one run or has the potential tying run on deck. Essentially, this is when the going gets tough.

And here are the ERA leaders in late and close situations from 2009 to 2013 (using a minimum of 75 innings in said scenarios for starters and 150 for relievers, because starters don’t pitch as often from the seventh inning on):

You may have noticed that this is the second straight instance in which each of Hernandez, Lincecum, Halladay and Cain made this top 10, and isn’t it fitting that each of those four has also hurled either a perfect game or a no-hitter within the past four seasons? Lincecum tossed his no-no this year, Hernandez and Cain pitched perfectos in 2012 and Halladay—gasp—did both back in 2010.

Meanwhile, Chris Sale has yet to achieve either feat, but he does lead this list, and there are two reasons for that. One, he’s really good (duh). And two, the lanky left-hander, you’ll recall, spent his first two seasons in the majors (2010 and 2011) pitching out of the White Sox’ bullpen as a key late-inning arm, which helps pump his stats up a bit.

Speaking of late-inning arms, we have even more closers this time around, as Craig Kimbrel, Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson and Grant Balfour enter the fray along with repeaters Papelbon and Romo. And it’s no surprise to see them joined by eighth-inning relievers Mike Adams, who’s missed much of 2013 with injury, and David Robertson, who has always had a knack for wiggling himself out of trouble.

 

High Leverage

The explanation for “high leverage” (or the concept of “leverage” in general) can be found at Baseball Reference (and perhaps more succinctly translated in my previous clutch hitter story). The gist, though, is that certain game situations are more significantly weighted toward the potential outcome of a contest, and how pitchers perform in those meatier matchups can be measured.

These are the ERA leaders in high leverage scenarios from 2009 to 2013 (using a minimum of 100 high-leverage innings for starters and 75 for relievers):

Not many new names here by now, which does show that there is at least some carry-over from certain clutch statistics to others when it comes to both starting pitchers and relievers.

It’s certainly not shocking that an electric arm like Kimbrel’s would show up on a second top 10 list, as many consider him to be the most dominant closer in the game right now.

And while it may be tough to remember now, given his ongoing arm troubles and overall struggles the last two years, Halladay has made it into all four clutch categories because of how dynamic he was at his peak at shutting down lineups the third and fourth time through. A reminder:

 

The Most Clutch of the Clutch

As in the hitter piece, here is where we tally the pitchers who appeared in more than one of the above top 10 lists to find out just which arms have been the kings of clutch in the last five seasons.

Overall, among starting pitchers there are nine who showed up multiple times on these top 10s, and they are: Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Chis Sale, Roy Halladay, Mat Latos, Cole Hamels, Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

Of those nine, the first four—Kershaw, Hernandez, Sale and Halladay—made it onto at least three top 10s (Halladay made four), making them the most consistently clutch performers (if such a thing does exist) in recent years as starters.

Shifting to relievers, there are 11 who placed multiple times in these top 10s, and they are: Jonathan Papelbon, Eric O’Flaherty, Brad Ziegler, Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo, Darren O’Day, Scott Downs, Mike Adams, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera.

Of those 11, the first two—Papelbon and O’Flaherty—appeared in three top 10s, while the other nine relievers all showed up in two lists.

As far as the final week of the season and into the playoffs, it will be worth keeping an eye on Kershaw and Latos among the starters, and Kimbrel and Downs in the reliever crew to see how they all fare in the most intense situations.

Alas, the shame of this is that the great Rivera likely won’t get another chance to come up clutch and add to his incredible postseason resume this October.

But when it comes to being clutch, not every pitcher can put himself in big spots—he can only do what he can to pitch well when called upon.

 

All statistics come from Baseball Reference.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Predicting ‘Winner or Loser’ for All 30 MLB Teams in Free Agency

There are still games to be played, some very meaningful, but there’s no question that front offices for all 30 teams have already started preparing their offseason game plans.

Which free agents will they target? Which of their own free agents will they try and retain? Which players should they target in a trade, and which of their own players are expendable? How much money will be available to spend? Which of their minor league players are ready to make an impact at the big league level.

These are all questions that will be answered in the near future before each team begins its quest to perfectly execute its offseason game plan. Some teams will succeed, and some will fail at filling their biggest needs with the players they wanted.

With a general idea of how much teams could have to spend this offseason and which positions they’ll be looking to upgrade, I’ve predicted whether teams will be a “loser” or “winner” this offseason based on how I think they’ll utilize their resources. But this isn’t an indication of predicted success or failure on the actual field.

The Boston Red Sox had plenty of holes to fill last offseason, but a ton of payroll space after a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers took several long-term contracts off their hands.

They took full advantage and had a “winning” offseason, followed by a division title. On the other hand, the Toronto Blue Jays had a “winning” offseason followed by an injury-plagued and mostly disappointing season. The New York Yankees had a “losing” offseason that will conclude with a winning season.  

As we all know, the games still have to be played on the field. But that doesn’t take away from how important the offseason roster moves can turn out to be. We just have to wait a long time to find out the results.  

The 30 slides are listed in order of lowest to highest 2013 Opening Day payroll, according to USA Today. Each team’s pending free agents are listed with their 2013 salary, according to Baseball Prospectus, in parentheses. Those who have a club option that is very likely to be picked up are not listed. 

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Breaking Down the Chaos of Potential 4-Way Tie for 2013 AL Wild Card

Remember the big fight scene midway through Anchorman? You know, the one where Will Ferrell’s news crew is poised to brawl with Vince Vaughn’s news crew, and then Owen Wilson, Tim Robbins and Ben Stiller show up ready for battle with each of their news crews?

That’s basically what the American League wild-card race is like right now.

The race will eventually come down to a battle between two clubs for the right to go to the division-series round, but right now, there are six teams in the mix and they’re all quite close to one another. By season’s end, there might be a two-way tie. Or a three-way tie. Or even—Gasp!—a four-way tie.

Want to know what happens if it comes to a four-way tie? I’ll tell you what happens.

Madness. That’s what happens, as a four-way tie means that Major League Baseball’s complex tiebreaking rules will have to be put into practice. 

We’ll get to those in a minute. But first, take a moment to re-familiarize yourself with the current standings in the American League wild-card race, for this is need-to-know stuff:

That’s what “close” looks like. The Tampa Bay Rays are nursing a slim lead for the top wild-card spot, but the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees are all separated by only 2.5 games.

Some perspective: This time last year, the Oakland A’s held a two-game lead for the top wild-card spot, and there was only one team within 2.5 games of the Orioles for the second wild-card spot. That situation looks petty by comparison.

We’re going to be getting more specific before long, but for now, let’s just entertain the notion that four teams end up with the same record and tied for the top two wild-card spots. What then?

That’s a scenario MLB is prepared for. The league’s official tiebreaker rules read:

After Clubs have been assigned their A, B, C and D designations, Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D on Monday, Sept. 30 (tentatively). The winners of each of those games would be declared the Wild Card Clubs.

Basically, there would be a final four. The four teams would square off, two winners would be left standing, and these two winners would then move on to play in the actual play-in game, which is currently slated to take place on Wednesday, Oct. 2.

Where things would get really interesting, however, is if four teams tie for a single wild-card spot. That could happen this year, and here’s what would go down:

After Clubs have been assigned their A, B, C and D designations, Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D on Monday, Sept. 30 (tentatively). The winners of each of those games would then meet on Tuesday, Oct. 1 (tentatively), hosted by the winner of the game between Club A and Club B, to determine the Wild Card Club.

There would once again be a final-four scenario, but it wouldn’t be over so quickly. Two games would produce two winners, those winners would play each other the next day, and the winner of that game would then go right to the Wild Card play-in game the next day. 

Think about that for a second, for I’m fairly certain it would be an MLB first. A four-way tie for one wild-card spot would set one team up to play three straight elimination games in three straight days against three different teams.

Whether it’s a four-way tie for two spots or a four-way tie for one spot, what would be accomplished either way is that a play-in scenario would indeed become a playoff scenario. That’s why those “A, B, C and D designations” would be needed, as it would have to be determined which teams would be hosting games and where the other teams would be going.

So…how does that work?

Simple. Except, well, not, because it leads us to another set of tiebreakers.

In the event of a four-team tie in which A, B, C and D designations would have to be chosen, the four clubs would be lined up in a pecking order from which they would pick their preferred designations. Putting clubs in a pecking order should be simple enough, as the rule reads:

The Club with the highest winning percentage in games among the tied Clubs chooses its designation first, followed by the Club with the second-highest winning percentage and the Club with the third-highest winning percentage.

Without getting into the nitty-gritty in regard to individual records, let’s just say that the Rays, Rangers, Indians and Orioles end up tied for the two wild-card spots. The Rays would show their record against the Rangers, Indians and Orioles, the Rangers would show their record against the Rays, Indians and Orioles and so on. Whichever club bears the record with the highest winning percentage would get to pick its designation first.

That club would presumably pick Designation A so it could host one of the playoff games, and the club with the next-best record would presumably pick Designation C so it could also host the other one. Then, the club with the third-best record would pick its preferred matchup, and the club with the worst record would be left with whatever’s left.

Now, things do get messy if it comes to a situation in which all four clubs produce records against the other three clubs that have identical winning percentages. In that case, it would be on to the next tiebreaker: winning percentage in intradivision games.

Now, in the event that all four teams also have identical winning percentages in intradivision games, the next tiebreaker is winning percentage in the last half (i.e. 71 games) of intraleague games (AL vs. AL).

If there’s still a tie between the four clubs, then intraleague games played before the halfway mark will be taken into account…but only one game at a time, and provided that the additional games being counted weren’t played between any of the tied clubs.

Let’s stop now for an appropriate GIF:

Indeed, but now for the good news—or, at least, what I think is good news. After eyeballing and tinkering around with the various teams in the AL wild-card race, their records against one another and their intradivision records, I failed to devise any scenario in which every last one of the four-team tiebreaker rules would come into play. Provided I didn’t miss anything, things won’t be getting that complicated.

But if you’re looking for some specific scenarios that could play out, I came up with a couple.

 

Scenario No. 1: A Tie Between the Rangers, Indians, Orioles and Yankees for One Spot

The Rangers are 81-68 and have 13 games remaining. Let’s say they go 8-5 in those 13 games, while the 81-69 Indians go 8-4 in their last 12, the 79-70 Orioles go 10-3 in their last 13 and the 79-71 Yankees go 10-2 in their last 12.

What you’d get is this: four teams with 89-73 records fitting into one spot in the American League wild-card race. It would be time to choose a designation and then…a playoff!

We already know how things would play out in terms of the designation choosing, as none of the four teams we’re talking about have any games remaining against any of the other three. The deal would be:

  • Rangers vs. Indians, Orioles and Yankees: 7-13 (.350)
  • Indians vs. Rangers, Orioles and Yankees: 10-10 (.500)
  • Orioles vs. Rangers, Indians and Yankees: 17-16 (.515)
  • Yankees vs. Rangers, Indians and Orioles: 19-14 (.576)

The Yankees’ edge would give them their pick of the four designations. Then it would be the Orioles, Indians and Rangers, in that order.

The Yankees would presumably choose Designation A so they could conceivably host two elimination games before getting to the big play-in game. The Orioles would presumably choose C so they could host one of the initial games. The Indians would be B so they could head home to host a game after possibly surviving the first round. The Rangers would be D, resulting in the following:

  • Indians at Yankees on 9/30
  • Rangers at Orioles on 9/30
  • Rangers/Orioles at Indians/Yankees on 10/1
  • Winner at Rays on 10/2

So there’s that, and now we can move on to another relatively straightforward one that involves a four-way tie for two wild-card spots.

 

Scenario No. 2: A Tie Between the Rangers, Rays, Indians and Orioles for Two Spots

Let’s say the Rangers bounce back and win the last three games of their four-game series against the Rays before finishing 5-5 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rays go on to split a four-gamer against the Orioles before finishing 5-1 in their last six games. Then, the Indians win their next two against the Royals and go 7-3 in their last 10. Finally, the Orioles sweep the Red Sox, split against the Rays and finish 5-1 in their last six. While all this is going on, the Yankees and Royals both fall off the table.

Here’s what you’d get: the Rangers, Rays, Indians and Orioles all with 89-73 records. Their records against each other would be:

  • Rangers vs. Rays, Indians and Orioles: 8-12 (.400)
  • Orioles vs. Rangers, Rays and Indians: 16-17 (.485)
  • Rays vs. Rangers, Indians and Orioles: 17-15 (.531)
  • Indians vs. Rangers, Rays and Orioles: 11-8 (.579)

So here, the pecking order would be Indians, Rays, Orioles and Rangers, and the likely format would be:

  • Orioles at Indians on 9/30
  • Rangers at Rays on 9/30

As for how home-field advantage for the eventual Wild Card play-in game would be decided, it would be a simple matter of the head-to-head records of the two survivors. There wouldn’t be any conflicts in this case, as nobody would go to the party with a .500 record against the other team.

Once again, simple enough. But now…let’s get weird.

 

Scenario No. 3: Four-Way Tie Between Rays, Indians, Orioles and Royals for One Spot

Imagine the Rays dropping their next three against the Rangers and then finishing the season with a split against the Orioles followed by six straight wins. 

Now imagine the Indians splitting against the Royals and finishing 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Now imagine the Orioles sweeping Boston, splitting against the Rays and winning their last six.

Now imagine the Royals winning out after splitting the two games against the Indians.

Meanwhile, the Rangers secure the top wild-card spot with a strong finish and the Yankees tank in the background.

What you’d get: Rays, Indians, Orioles and Royals all with 90-72 records. It would be time for the clubs to put their records against one another on the table. And that would go:

  • Orioles vs. Rays, Indians and Royals: 14-19 (.424)
  • Royals vs. Rays, Indians and Orioles: 19-14 (.575)
  • Indians vs. Rays, Orioles and Royals: 16-16 (.500)
  • Rays vs. Indians, Orioles and Royals: 16-16 (.500)

All good, all good…Uh…Uh oh.

Fortunately, MLB is prepared for such a scenario: 

If two Clubs have identical winning percentages, then the two-Club tiebreak rules shall apply to determine which team selects its designation first.

That means head-to-head winning percentage, in which case the Rays would get the nod by virtue of their 4-2 record against the Indians in 2013. The Indians’ winning record against the Orioles and Royals would be moot, as would the Rays’ losing record against those two clubs. Them’s the breaks.

So, the pecking order would go Royals, Rays, Indians and Orioles, and then the stage would be set for a final four that would lead up to the play-in game on Oct. 2.

Now then…because I have a roaring headache and my nose is starting to bleed, that’s enough of the theoretical scenarios.

Save for that one mythical beast, of course.

 

So…What if There’s a Five-Team Tie?

There’s a scenario out there that involves, say, the Rangers going 7-6 in their last 13, the Indians going 7-5 in their last 12, the Orioles going 9-4 in their last 13 and the Yankees and Royals both going 9-3 in their last 12, all while the Rays secure the top wild-card spot with a strong finish. 

Then you’d have five teams at 88-74, and all of them would want that second wild-card spot.

Want to know what would happen then?

Shoot, so would I. But this is a question without an answer. At least for the time being.

Major League Baseball’s tiebreaking protocols don’t have any rules in place for five-team ties. I reached out to the commissioner’s office via phone and email but have yet to get a response. It’s possible that MLB is still working on figuring something out. Or maybe Bud Selig and his minions are waiting patiently and hoping that such a mess doesn’t come to fruition.

As much as I’d like to say that I have a brilliant solution to such a troubling conundrum, I frankly don’t. It’s complicated enough whittling four teams down to one. Whittling five teams down to one is a whole different animal. Giving one team a bye while the other four duke it out for the right to face the one team with a bye wouldn’t be fair, nor would it be entirely practical in light of the time constraints.

That means the most logical solution to the possible five-way-tie scenario is this: It simply can’t be allowed to happen. If it does, Earth will implode like planet Vulcan.

Maybe it will all work out in the end. Either that, or the baseball gods will prove for the umpteenth time that they have a weird sense of humor. 

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updated Stock Watch for Upcoming MLB Free Agents, Week 24

The free-agent market won’t be officially open for business for about another month-and-a-half (at the conclusion of the World Series), but most free agents-to-be are down to their last 12 to 15 games to either boost, maintain or lose value. 

While a majority of the group will be in the “maintain value” category, a handful of others are either playing good enough to bump that price tag up or bad enough to knock it down.

Here are eight players, four from each side, who have shifted the needle on their free-agent stock during the past week or two. 

Begin Slideshow


Who Would Win the 10 Most Likely 2013 MLB Wild Card Playoff Matchups?

With about two weeks left in the 2013 Major League Baseball season, the playoff pictures are starting to come into focus, but there’s still a whole lot of jockeying for position going on, especially in the wild-card races.

From this Friday, the 13th, until the last day of the regular season on Sept. 29, teams that are already in the picture will be looking to fight for a better position in front of the camera, while those who are on the outside looking in will be hoping to elbow their way into the frame.

In the National League, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are on the verge of clinching their divisions, the NL Central is far from over, as the Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds are all within 2.5 games of each other entering play Friday.

Of course, the two teams that fall short of that crown will have to face each other in a one-game wild-card playoff. (Yes, the Washington Nationals are lurking, but they’re still not dressed in their picture-perfect attire, so they’re not yet ready for their close-up.)

Over in the American League, on the other hand, the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics appear to be in varying degrees of good-to-great shape as the photographer is starting to count backward from 15 (as in games left).

But—boy, oh, boy—the wild-card race in the Junior Circuit is something else, as 2.5 games is all that separates six different teams (deep breath now): the Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals.

Not all of the above teams in the AL are going to be able to strike a pose, but because everyone is packed in so tightly and ready to say, “cheese!” we’ll consider them all in a rundown of the 10 most likely wild-card matchups across both leagues.

The potential pitching matchups will be a major focus below, and in the interest of entertainment factor and common sense, we’re going to figure that all teams will be manipulating the schedule to enable them to throw their top arm.

Certainly, though, things could change based on how the races play out between now and the final few regular season games; for instance, if a playoff berth is on the line, a team may be forced to pitch their top starter just to get into the actual wild-card contest.

For the sake of sanity, let’s start with the Senior Circuit, where the the scene is closer to being set.

Before we begin, it’s worth pointing out that the NL wild-card game is scheduled for Tuesday, Oct. 1, while the AL one is Wednesday, Oct. 2.

 

 

National League

 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Regular Season Series: 10-9 in favor of the Pirates

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Adam Wainwright (16-9, 3.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.2 K/9) against LHP Francisco Liriano (16-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.1 K/9)

Wainwright against Pirates in 2013: 1-0 (3 starts), 21 IP, 7 ER (3.00 ERA), 15 H, 20:6 K:BB

Liriano against Cardinals in 2013: 3-0 (3 starts), 24 IP, 2 ER (0.75 ERA), 10 H, 20:5 K:BB

Who Would Win: Cardinals. The season series was oh-so-close, and this pitching matchup could be closer than expected, especially with Liriano having owned St. Louis all three times he’s faced them. Wainwright, though, has been almost as great in his three starts against Pittsburgh. With no clear pitching edge, it comes down to offense, and the Cardinals have a better and deeper lineup than the Pirates.

 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Regular Season Series: 11-8 in favor of the Cardinals

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Adam Wainwright (16-9, 3.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.2 K/9) against RHP Homer Bailey (10-10, 3.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.9)

Wainwright against Reds in 2013: 1-3 (4 starts), 22 IP, 19 ER (7.77 ERA), 29 H, 18:7 K:BB

Bailey against Cardinals in 2013: 2-2 (4 starts), 24.2 IP, 11 (4.01 ERA), 25 H, 20:7 K:BB

Who Would Win: Reds. Wainwright hasn’t fared anywhere near as well against the Reds as he has against the Pirates (and really, most other teams this year), which could make this a dicey game for St. Louis. If Cincinnati’s potent lineup can make Wainwright work like they have so far—he’s averaged under six innings per start against them—they could take advantage of the Cardinals’ overworked bullpen.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

Regular Season Series: 7-6 in favor of the Pirates

Likely Starting Pitchers: LHP Francisco Liriano (16-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.1 K/9) against RHP Homer Bailey (10-10, 3.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.9)

Liriano against Reds in 2013: 0-3, (3 starts), 16.1 IP, 8 ER (4.41 ERA), 14 H, 21:7 K:BB

Bailey against Pirates in 2013: 0-1 (2 starts), 12.1 IP, 5 ER (3.65 ERA), 13 H, 20:1 K:BB

Who Would Win: Pirates. Both pitchers have whiffed well above a batter per inning in their outings against the other club but, partly because of that, neither one has had much luck lasting all that long or pitching all that well. If Liriano can neutralize big lefty bats Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, though—even if it’s for only six innings— the Pirates excellent bullpen could take care of the rest.

 

 

American League

 

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Regular Season Series: 2-1 in favor of the Rangers

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Yu Darvish (12-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.9 K/9) against LHP David Price (8-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.4 K/9)

Darvish against Rays in 2013: N/A

Price against Rangers in 2013: N/A

Who Would Win: Rangers. This one is tough to judge because there’s not much in the way of 2013 history here, both between the two teams and the pitchers.

A potential X-factor could be Nelson Cruz’s return to Texas’ lineup to team with fellow righty-hitting Adrian Beltre and give the southpaw Price fits, while the right-handed Darvish takes advantage of the Rays’ righty-heavy lineup, including biggest threats Evan Longoria and Wil Myers.

 

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

Regular Season Series: 4-3 in favor of the Rangers

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Yu Darvish (12-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.9 K/9) against RHP Hiroki Kuroda (11-10, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.7 K/9)

Darvish against Yankees in 2013: 1-0 (2 starts), 11.2 IP, 3 ER (2.31 ERA), 9 H, 10:4 K:BB

Kuroda against Rangers in 2013: 1-0 (2 starts), 13.2 IP, 2 ER (1.32 ERA), 11 H, 9:2 K:BB

Who Would Win: Rangers. Yes, Kuroda, who consistently keeps the Yankees in games, would get the ball over former ace CC Sabathia, who has been way too inconsistent to count on in a do-or-die contest.

With New York’s lineup severely depleted due to injuries, including the latest to Brett Gardner, Darvish might only have to worry about handling lefty-hitting Robinson Cano in a key spot of a game that could, surprisingly, be a low-scoring affair.

 

Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians

Regular Season Series: 5-1 in favor of the Indians

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Yu Darvish (12-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.9 K/9) against RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (11-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.39, 9.2 K/9)

Darvish against Indians in 2013: 0-1 (1 start), 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4:1 K:BB

Jimenez against Rangers in 2013: 2-0 (2 starts), 13 IP, 1 ER (0.69 ERA), 6 H, 10:7 K:BB

Who Would Win: Indians. With Justin Masterson out with a poorly-timed oblique injury and unlikely to be able to pitch, the nod goes to Jimenez, who has been much better over the past few months and who held the Rangers down both times he faced them.

Plus, Cleveland’s lineup is loaded with batters who hit from the left side, which might make it tougher for Darvish, who allows a reasonable .672 OPS against them (compared to .507 versus righties). Cleveland is 5-1 against Texas this year, but this one still would be an upset.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Regular Season Series: 9-7 in favor of the Rays

Likely Starting Pitchers: LHP David Price (8-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.4 K/9) against RHP Hiroki Kuroda (11-10, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.7 K/9)

Price against Yankees in 2013: 1-1 (2 starts), 14 IP, 5 ER (3.21 ERA), 13 H, 10:1 K:BB

Kuroda against Rays in 2013: 0-1 (1 start), 6 IP, 7 ER (10.50 ERA), 9 H, 3:1 K:BB

Who Would Win: Rays. Again, all the Yankees’ injuries would leave them short-handed against one of the top arms in the game. And considering Price is a left-hander to boot, he might be able to neutralize New York’s only stud hitter, Robinson Cano, who bats from the same side.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Indians

Regular Season Series: 4-2 in favor of the Rays

Likely Starting Pitchers: LHP David Price (8-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.4 K/9) against RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (11-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.39, 9.2 K/9)

Price against Indians in 2013: 0-1 (1 start), 5 IP, 8 ER (14.40 ERA), 10 H, 3:3 K:BB

Jimenez against Rays in 2013: 1-0 (1 start), 8 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA), 4 H, 7:1 K:BB

Who Would Win: Rays. Price’s ugly line in his lone outing against Cleveland came all the way back in April, and he’s throwing much, much better of late. As mentioned above, the Indians have a lot of lefty batters, although Price would have to take care of switch-hitters Carlos Santana, Nick Swisher and Asdrubal Cabrera.

While Jimenez dominated Tampa in his start against them, his blowup factor is much higher than Price’s.

 

Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals

Regular Season Series: 2-1 in favor of the Rangers

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Yu Darvish (12-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.9 K/9) against RHP James Shields (11-9, 3.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.5 K/9)

Darvish against Royals in 2013: 0-0 (1 start), 7 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA), 3 H, 6:2 K:BB

Shields against Rangers in 2013: 0-0 (1 start) 7 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA), 5 H, 5:1 K:BB

Who Would Win: Rangers. Despite his nickname, Shields has always struggled in big games (2-4, 4.98 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in six postseason starts), which means the Royals’ best bet would be to stay in the game and deploy their dynamite bullpen. That’s a tough recipe to cook up against Darvish.


Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Regular Season Series: 5-2 in favor of the Orioles

Likely Starting Pitchers: RHP Yu Darvish (12-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.9 K/9) against RHP Chris Tillman (16-5, 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.7 K/9)

Darvish against Orioles in 2013: N/A

Tillman against Rangers in 2013: 1-0 (1 start), 8 IP, 2 ER (2.25 ERA), 6 H, 7:3 K:BB

Who Would Win: Orioles. Another big upset, as the Orioles have a power-hitting offense (MLB-high 196 homers) that also doesn’t strike out much (sixth-fewest), which means one of, say, Chris Davis (49 HR), Adam Jones (31), J.J. Hardy (25) or Matt Wieters (21) has the ability to get to Darvish with one swing.

 

All statistics are accurate entering play Friday.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


21 Things That Have Happened in Baseball Since the Pirates’ Last Winning Season

For the first time since 1992, the Pittsburgh Pirates can call themselves winners.

It’s taken 21 years—their streak of 20 consecutive losing seasons from 1993 through 2012 was the longest in North American professional sports history—but the Pirates finally can put an “82” in the win column.

To get an idea of just how long it’s been, if someone had planted a time capsule to capture the zeitgeist of 1992, here are a few things that might be revealed upon digging it up now, more than two decades later:

Heck, it was so long ago, MTV’s The Real World was in its (gasp) first season. And that’s only what happened in pop culture.

Plenty more has happened in Major League Baseball dating back to the last time the Pirates were above .500. In fact, in “honor” of the franchise’s past 21 years of losing, here are—you guessed it—21 things that have taken place since. 

 

1. Infielder Jurickson Profar (born Feb. 20, 1993), right-hander Dylan Bundy (Nov. 15, 1992) outfielder and 2012 National League Rookie of the Year Bryce Harper (Oct. 16, 1992) all were born* and made their MLB debuts.

*The last day of the 1992 season was Oct. 4, so not every player born in 1992 qualifies.

2. MLB endured the players’ strike of 1994, which cut short the season and left the sport without a World Series that October.

3. That same year, the league adopted a new divisional format, switching from two divisions per league to three. The wild card was also introduced, but because the strike cancelled the postseason, the divisional round of the playoffs didn’t start till October of 1995. The first teams to earn playoff berths via the wild card were the New York Yankees and Colorado Rockies.

4. Sticking with the Yankees, there’s an intriguing dynamic at play between them and the Pirates. Through Pittsburgh’s last winning season in 1992, New York actually had failed to make the playoffs for 11 years running—tied for the longest stretch in the franchise’s history after it became a perennial power in the 1920s.

While that skid would continue through 1994, the Yankees soon embarked on what became baseball’s longest, most successful run—17 postseason appearances and five titles in 18 seasons*—during the same time the Pirates became the sport’s cellar-dwellers.

*The rise of the Yankees dynasty began around the same time the team brought in the members of the “Core Four“—Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada—all four of whom began their big league careers after 1993.

Amazingly, Posada is the only one who is no longer active. Pettitte has compiled 255 wins since 1993, the second-most in baseball in that time. Jeter has amassed 3,316 hits over 2,598 games played (both MLB highs), and Mariano Rivera owns a record 649 saves, having pitched in 1,108 games—most in the majors in the same time period.

 

5. Cal Ripken surpassed Lou “The Iron Horse” Gehrig’s record of 2,130 consecutive games played in September of 1995. In case you’re scoring at home, 897 of Ripken’s eventual mark—2,632 straight—came from 1993 on.

6. After serving as acting commissioner since 1992, Bud Selig officially became the ninth commissioner of the sport in 1998. Selig’s tenure, which almost perfectly coincides with the Pirates’ streak of losing seasons, is the second-longest among MLB commissioners, trailing only Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who served as baseball’s first commissioner from 1920-1944.

7. New teams, new names, new locations. Four entirely new franchises were created—the Colorado Rockies and Florida* Marlins in 1993, followed by the Tampa Bay Devil* Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks in 1998—while the Milwaukee Brewers shifted from the AL Central the the NL Central in 1998, the Montreal Expos left Canada and became the Washington Nationals in 2005 and the Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West in 2013. 

*Tampa Bay dropped the “Devil” from the team nickname in 2008, while the Marlins swapped “Florida” for the more specific “Miami” in 2012. And for the sake of proper bookkeeping, in 1997, the California Angels became the Anaheim Angels, and then morphed into the clunky Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2005.

8. Of the now-30 MLB teams—there were only 26 back in 1992—here are the ones with the fewest winning seasons from 1993 through 2012:

9. In that same span, 28 of 30 clubs made the postseason. Aside from the Bucs, the Kansas City Royals are the only squad that hasn’t played into October. In fact, they actually have a longer playoff drought than Pittsburgh,* who last made it in 1992, whereas the Royals haven’t been since winning it all in 1985.

*In case you’re wondering which Pirate holds the title of “He Who Has Suffered Most” (i.e., the longest-tenured Pittsburgh player from 1993 through 2012), that would be none other than former catcher Jason Kendall, who played in 1,252 games and was a three-time All-Star as a Pirate.

Here’s the irony: Kendall played for the Pirates from 1996 through 2004 and eventually retired in 2010, meaning his entire 15-year career came and went without the Buccos ever reaching 82 victories, and yet Pittsburgh drafted him in the first round way back in June of (yep) 1992—the middle of the Pirates’ last winning season.

10. Speaking of winning it all, 19 different teams made the World Series, and 11 of those took the trophy,* including a pair of expansion clubs: the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins not once, but twice: in 1997 and again in 2003.

*Both “Sox” teams, the White ones from Chicago and the Red ones from Boston, won championships, ending two of the three longest droughts in baseball. The “other” Chicago team, meanwhile, remains sans title since 1908, and many blame Steve Bartman for extending that curse in 2003. The “Curse of the Bambino,” though, was extinguished in 2004.

11. A sport that kept the American and National Leagues separate throughout its history—aside from the World Series and the All-Star Game, the two sides had never faced each other—embarked upon interleague play starting in 1997.

12. In 1998, Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs, while Sammy Sosa hit 66 to topple Roger Maris’ long-standing, single-season home run record of 61. Only three seasons later, in 2001, Barry Bonds* broke McGwire’s record by smashing 73.

*Bonds, of course, was the star of the last Pirates team to win more games than it lost in 1992, but he went on to sign with the Giants after that season, then hit 586 of his 762 career home runs for San Francisco, passing Hank Aaron to become the all-time home run king in 2007.

13. Baseball endured the brunt* of what is now known as the Steroid Era from the 1990s into the 2000s, as the three players in the previous note, among many others, were linked to—or even admitted to using—performance-enhancing drugs. In 2007, MLB released the Mitchell Report, which revealed the findings from a lengthy, wide-ranging investigation into the extent that PEDs had infiltrated the sport.

*The Steroid Era, clearly, isn’t quite over yet: In July and August of 2013, the league suspended 13 players for ties to the now-shuttered Biogenesis clinic as uncovered by MLB’s investigation. Among those given suspensions were Ryan Braun, who received a 65-game ban (the rest of the 2013 season) and Alex Rodriguez, who was hit with a record 211-game ban (through the 2014 season). Rodriguez, though, has appealed and continues to play.

14. While only four pitchers—Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson—joined the 300-win club from 1993 on, the number of hitters in the 500-home run club nearly doubled, from 14 through 1992 to 25 through 2013. They were, in chronological order:

*Rodriguez’s home run total of 651 is through games played on Sept. 8, 2013

15. As if to prove that this era wasn’t entirely about power, Ichiro Suzuki—the very antithesis of the home run—slapped, punched, flared and infield hit his way past George Sisler to a record 262 base knocks in 2004, with 225 of those being of the one-base variety (also a record).

16. Continuing the run on personal achievements over this time frame, nearly half of the perfect games in MLB history—10 of 23—were twirled, and there were 45 no-hitters* in which the starting pitcher went nine innings and won.

*Incidentally, it would have been 46 no-nos, except Francisco Cordova didn’t get the win in his nine-inning no-no on July 12, 1997. As it so happened, Cordova pitched for the Pirates, who went on to victory in extra innings.

17. Baseball brought in instant replay in 2008, but only in a limited capacity to help determine whether home runs cleared the fence were fair or foul. During the 2013 season, the league announced that it’s expecting to expand the system beyond the initial use of home run boundary calls.

18. While on the topic of expanding things, MLB altered the postseason format again in 2012 by adding a second wild card spot in each league, with those two clubs facing each other in a one-game playoff. This means that 10 of the 30 teams—or one-third—now make it to October.* The first-ever second wild cards were the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals.

*This will certainly help the Pirates’ postseason hopes as they battle the Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central, a division in which those three clubs are separated by only 2.0 games through the Pirates’ 82nd win.

19. If you think the money in baseball has come a long way while the Pirates have been sub.-500, you’d be right.

*The small-market Pirates have been in the bottom 10 among payrolls every season except for 2001 (18th), 2003 (19th) and 2013 (20th). To put 1993’s $30.6 million league-average payroll in perspective further, the Pirates actually ranked dead last in payroll as recently as 2010—and they spent $34.9 million.

20. Here, the counting number matches the factoid, as a whopping 20 stadiums were built* in the time it took the Pirates to return to a winning team, including Pittsburgh’s own PNC Park, which opened in 2001. Think of it this way: That’s one new major league ballpark for every Pirates losing season!

*This does not include Tampa Bays’ Tropicana Field, which actually was constructed in 1990 but only joined MLB in 1998, the first season for the expansion Rays. If we’re talking ballparks that were officially opened as MLB stadiums, then, that number is 21.

21. As a final “thing,” it’s worth pointing out how much the way baseball evaluation has changed over the past two decades, specifically the concept of old-school scouting versus (or in conjunction with) new-school sabermetrics, a development highlighted in the ground-breaking non-fiction book-turned-film Moneyball. To that end, just about every club (with one glaring exception) relies heavily on statistical data and information to help with the decision-making process, including the Pirates.

General manager Neal Huntington, hired at the end of the 2007 season, revamped the organization’s approach to player evaluation. The new approach is demonstrated by, for one, the 2008 hiring of sabermetrician Dan Fox, currently the club’s director of baseball systems development. It may have taken a while, but the club’s turnaround can be attributed, at least in part, to this.

Alas, despite all the new-age statistics and advanced metrics, one number remains unobtainable and perhaps even incalculable: Cigarettes smoked by current Detroit Tigers head honcho and notorious smoker Jim Leyland, who was the last Pirates manager to lead the franchise to a winning season.

Thanks to Gerrit Cole’s gem* on Monday to get win No. 82, it now can be said that Clint Hurdle has gone where the five managers between Leyland and him never could—above .500 in Pittsburgh.

*The last time the Pirates were a winning team, by the way, Cole was two years old.

 

What else has happened in MLB since the last time the Pittsburgh Pirates were a winning team? Add to the list above in the comments below.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Have We Seen the Last 60-Home Run Season in Our Lifetimes?

Quick: Who was the last player to hit 60 home runs in a season?

Got it yet?

How about now?

OK, so it’s a bit of a trick question, as not one but two hitters bashed 60-plus homers back in 2001. One, of course, was Barry Bonds, who set the single-season record with 73. The other? Sammy Sosa, who totaled 64.

Of all the incredible performances and amazing statistics to come out of Major League Baseball’s power binge during the 1990s and early 2000s, this may be the most unbelievable: Sosa, in fact, smashed 60 or more homers a record three times—in 1998, 1999 and 2001—and yet how many times did Slammin’ Sammy lead the majors in the category?

That’s right: Zero.

Of course, Sosa was one half of the great home run race of 1998, which culminated with Mark McGwire shattering Roger Maris’ old mark of 61 by mashing 70.

Goes to show you how different the sport was only a little more than a decade ago, huh? Obviously, many of these long-ball exploits, by Sosa, McGwire and others of the era, were inflated by the use of performance-enhancing drugs, at least to some extent. Regardless, the numbers show that in the four seasons from 1998 to 2001, a player hit 60 home runs six times in total and in three of those four years.

In other words, it wasn’t that long ago that the 60-homer season seemed to be a near-annual occurrence in the major leagues. Suffice it to say, baseball fans seemed spoiled by all the 60s in such a short span.

But here are the cold, hard facts when it comes to reaching the big six-oh in the 100-plus-year modern history of the sport:

  1. It has been done just eight times.
  2. It has been done by only five different players.
  3. There have been gaps of 27 years (1900-1927), 34 years (1927-1961) and 37 years (1961-1998).

The current gap, by the way, is 12 years and counting—unless Chris Davis, who has an MLB-leading 48 homers through Friday, goes on a ridiculous run to close out the season.

That being said, though, here’s a chart that should offer some hope on the prospect of seeing 60 again:

In other words, hitters routinely have reached 50 homers—and chased 60—throughout the majority of baseball history.

As for the current day, once Davis hits two more, he’ll join Jose Bautista, who smacked 54 in 2010, as the second 50-homer season of this decade.

Now, 50 is a long way from 60, but it’s certainly in the ballpark and sniffing around. Sure, offense as a whole is down a lot in recent years, but once the sport’s ebb and flow starts shifting back to hitters, it would seem much more likely that someone will become the sixth different hitter to accomplish a 60-homer season.

For the next 60 to happen, the circumstances will need to be just right—a big-time slugger playing at a hitter-friendly home ballpark in a lineup full of other great batters who can help prevent him from being pitched around.

The sad part of all this is that, because of all the PED problems baseball has been through over the past two decades, whoever it winds up being and whenever it winds up happening, that player will face intense scrutiny and questions about whether he’s getting any “illegal help” to hit his home runs. It’s already happened with just about every player who’s hit 50-plus in recent years, including Davis, Bautista and Ryan Howard.

But when it comes to someone reaching 60 home runs again in our lifetime, there’s a good chance Bonds and Sosa won’t be the last.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updated Stock Watch for Upcoming MLB Free Agents, Week 23

With less than a month to go in the regular season, free agents-to-be are running out of time to leave a lasting impression on potential suitors. Some of the bigger names, including Robinson Cano, have remained near the top of the free-agent market with steady performance while several others have risen and fallen from month-to-month. 

Players who have disappointed up to this point can still boost their stock by having a big month in September. On the flip side, those who have been terrific for most of the season could see their value fall substantially with a poor finish. 

Here are 10 players who have gone in all different directions throughout the season, but find themselves in a similar position with a few weeks to go. Their value could rise or fall significantly based on their end-of-season performance.

 

Begin Slideshow


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