Kuzul

After the Washington Nationals’ 11-2 humbling at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, Ryan Zimmerman promised a better effort from the club on Tuesday. Then Zimmerman went out and backed up that promise.

Despite Zimmerman’s tremendous effort, a lack of clutch hitting and a tenth inning error by Jayson Werth allowed the Marlins to win 3-2 on a walk-off hit by Donnie Murphy.

In the third inning, Florida starter Anibal Sanchez threw Zimmerman a 1-0 fast ball that the third baseman rocketed over the left field wall to put the Nationals up 2-1.

Washington was able to maintain that lead until pinch hitter Greg Dobbs drove in Donnie Murphy on sac fly given up by Tyler Clippard. The earned run went to Jason Marquis, who surrendered a double to Murphy to lead off the seventh inning.

Marquis pitched well enough to win, giving up two earned runs in 6.1 innings of work. The good start has to feel good for Marquis, who struggled in 2010 with injuries. Marquis lived in the bottom of the strike zone, getting the Marlins to ground out all night long.

The Nats continue to wear out opposing starting pitchers with patience. Sanchez threw 105 pitches in only 5.2 of work, but surrendered only two earned runs.

The Nationals stranded 12 on Tuesday night, a problem they’ve had all season. It could be the product of the Nationals unusual lineup. If the mediocrity with runners on base continues to be a problem, Jim Riggleman has to move Jayson Werth to the third slot in the order.

It would certainly give Werth more RBI opportunities than he is getting now. Nationals’ lead-off hitters have reached base just once in four games; that’s not how you win games.

Speaking of the lead-off spot, it was revealed Tuesday that Danny Espinosa would take over for Ian Desmond at the top of the order. Desmond will move down to seventh. Credit has to go to Riggleman for making this move as soon as he did and not being stubborn.

For more Nats coverage, visit nationalsbaseblog.blogspot.com/

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Washington Nationals (2010 record: 69-93)

The addition of free agent Jayson Werth speaks volumes about the Nationals’ growth in terms of the perception of the team as it continues its journey towards baseball relevance. The trade-off from Adam Dunn to Werth may or may not make an impact on the field in terms of wins and losses, but it makes a clear statement about the possibilities for the future.

Sadly for Nats fans, that future is not now.

The team improved by 10 games last year, but it faces an uphill battle to hold onto those gains in the upcoming season. The club lost future ace Stephen Strasburg to a torn ulnar collateral nerve and consequent Tommy John surgery last August. He’ll miss most, if not all, of the 2011 season.

On offense, Dunn and Adam Kennedy departed via free agency, and the front office traded OF Josh Willingham to Oakland. Considering all of these developments in their totality, the best case scenario for 2011 would be maintaining the 10-game improvement achieved in 2010.

The team is very young and, under the best of circumstances, it is likely still at least a couple of years away from competing for a division title.

Notable additions: OF Rick Ankiel, 1B Adam LaRoche, LF Matt Stairs, RF Jayson Werth

Notable subtractions: 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Adam Kennedy, LHP Scott Olsen, RHP Joel Peralta, OF Josh Willingham

The Offense

Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez

Infield: Adam LaRoche (1B), Danny Espinosa (2B), Ian Desmond (SS) and Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

Outfield: Roger Bernadina (LF), Nyger Morgan (CF) and Jayson Werth (RF)

The offense finished 14th (of 16) teams in the league in runs scored last year, and the plight of the lineup became more acute this winter when 1B Adam Dunn left for the cozy confines of US Cellular Field on the south side of Chicago. It was further exacerbated when Willingham was shipped to the Athletics.

The club will be largely dependent on holdover Zimmerman and newcomers Werth and LaRoche. Zimmerman won the Silver Slugger Award at third base in each of the last two years, but he had Dunn as his running buddy in the lineup.

That responsibility now falls to Werth, who will face life outside Citizens Bank Park while trying to live up to the $126 million contract he received in free agency. The pundits are split on whether his power will translate seamlessly to a bigger stadium in the nation’s capitol.

LaRoche has bounced from Pittsburgh to Boston to Atlanta to Phoenix (and now) to Washington over the last three seasons, but he has averaged a .269 average and 25 HR in those three seasons.

The club’s fate will be largely dependent on the continued development of 24-year-old SS Ian Desmond and 23-year-old 2B Danny Espinosa to complement Zimmerman, Werth and LaRoche. They both offer a potential for a decent power and speed combination, but they’re young and nothing is assured.

Desmond showed growth in the second half of last season, offering hope for 2011. Espinosa’s batting average in 2010 was bleak, but it will likely improve as last year’s number was based on a dismal 27 percent hit rate.

Nyjer Morgan went into last year having had a dynamic second half in 2009, but some level of regression was expected as his success was based on an unsustainable 37 percent hit rate in ’09. He regressed.

The question is where he goes from here. His game is speed, and he can’t use it unless he gets on base more consistently. He doesn’t walk nearly enough to be an effective leadoff man, so he’s got to figure out an identity and then embrace it. Many of the same comments apply to Bernadina, as well.

Ivan Rodriguez’s skills at the plate are increasingly marginal and he offers little in the way of production. That said, he doesn’t really hurt the club, per se, so he’ll likely retain the lion’s share of the playing time behind the plate.

The Pitching Staff

Rotation: RHP Livan Hernandez, RHP Jordan Zimmerman, LHP John Lannan, LHP Tom Gorzelanny and RHP Jason Marquis

Closer: RHP Drew Storen

On the mound, with Strasburg lost for the year, it is essential that the bevy of young pitching prospects they have started integrating at the big league level develops quickly in support of veteran Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez had a nice comeback campaign last year, posting a 3.66 ERA, but he’s just not a No. 1 pitcher anymore. Zimmerman and Marquis are both returning from injuries and cannot really be counted on, yet the Nationals are counting on them to be productive in the No. 2 and 3 slots in the rotation.

Zimmerman looked good in his return from Tommy John surgery at the end of the year and is capable of becoming a consistent winner if healthy. He’ll be another year removed from his injury this season, so the front office is hopeful he will remain healthy and develop into a reliable No. 2 behind Strasburg.

Lannan struggled throughout the first half of last year and eventually earned himself a demotion to Double-A. When he returned he resembled the pitcher who showed so much promise in 2008 and 2009.

Marquis and Gorzelanny are back-end options in any major league rotation. Marquis is a ground ball pitcher who seems destined to pitch 180 innings, win 12 to 13 games, and post a 4.50 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, plus or minus. Gorzelanny walks too many batters and, as a result, will always struggle to live up to the potential he occasionally flashes.

Storen should be ready to assume the closer’s mantle on a regular basis in 2011. He had a strong first half last year, followed by a rough second half, but the peripherals suggest his second half was largely a matter of bad luck (high hit rate, low strand rate). I expect he will have a solid campaign as Washington’s closer, and eventually develop into an excellent closer over the next couple of seasons.

Prediction for 2011: Fifth place (70-92)

The absence of Dunn and Strasburg will no doubt hurt the on-field product, but their losses shouldn’t be catastrophic. Werth won’t replace Dunn’s offense, but the combination of Werth and LaRoche should replace the productivity of Dunn and Willingham. There is no replacement for Strasburg, but a healthy Zimmerman should mitigate the impact of his loss.

Desmond, Espinosa and Morgan: two of them will take a step forward this season and help the offense improve, if only marginally. Lannan will win a dozen games. The 2011 campaign won’t be what it could have been with Strasburg in the rotation, but it should provide an ever-improving foundation for the organization as it looks toward a future that includes Bryce Harper, Derek Norris, AJ Cole and others.

Top Five Prospects

1. Bryce Harper, OF
2. Derek Norris, C
3. AJ Cole, RHP
4. Chris Marrero, 1B
5. Yunesky Maya, RHP

Sports Illustrated dubbed Harper “Baseball’s Chosen One” as a high school sophomore. You would think it would be hard for a kid to live up to that kind of hype, yet Harper continues to impress in spite of the weight of expectations he carries on his shoulders.

The former catcher earned his GED in 2009 in order to skip his junior and senior years in high school and enroll at a junior college. In his one year of JuCo ball (2010), he hit .443 while leading the nation with 31 HR. He won the Golden Spikes Award as the nation’s top amateur player and was then the consensus No. 1 pick in last June’s First-Year Player Draft.

He agreed to a contract with the Nationals just before the August signing deadline and converted to the outfield in the instructional league. He hit .343 in winter ball (in the Arizona Fall League) and is ticketed for the minor leagues in 2011 (maybe High-A Potomac, to start).

He is the proverbial five-tool player. There is no aspect of his game that needs improvement…just refinement. According to Baseball America, his power rates an “80″ on the scouts’ 20-80 scale. What most people don’t know is that his arm also rates an “80″ on the scouting scale. He stole 20 bases in 24 attempts in JuCo.

He will need to refine his approach at the plate and the mechanics of his swing in the minor leagues—improvements that will help him to hit for a higher batting average in the major leagues. He also needs work on his defense in right field, but it is a matter of gaining experience not acquiring skills. He is reputed to have an excellent work ethic, so the learning curve won’t be long or steep.

He is on the fast track to The Show, and to stardom.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When former general manager Jim Bowden compared Ian Desmond to future Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter, his team had yet to play a game as the Washington Nationals.  Fans had never heard of Desmond, a 19-year-old Floridian who was taken in the third-round of the 2004 amateur draft. 

Fans thought Bowden was out of his mind.

From 2005—the year of Bowden’s comparison—through 2008, Desmond played nothing like Derek Jeter. In fact, he played nothing like a prospect. He couldn’t field and seemed to make up for it by not hitting either. He was still playing for Class-A Potomac in 2007 and injuries took their toll. 

In five minor league seasons, he produced a career .248 batting average. When 2009 began, Danny Espinosa—and not Desmond—was the club’s top shortstop prospect.

Then, all of a sudden, Desmond “got it.” 

Splitting time between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, Desmond batted .330/.401/.477 last season, hitting seven homers and driving in 32 runs.

In a September call-up, he batted .280-4-25 in just 152 at-bats (.280-15-92 over a full season).

Desmond beat out Cristian Guzman last spring and has played as well as anyone had hoped, perhaps even better.

So what about that comparison to Jeter? Was Bowden right five springs ago?

Let’s take a look.

In 2,371 minor league at-bats, Derek Jeter batted .308/.384/.418, hitting a home run every 111 at-bats. Desmond, in 1,777 games, hit .260/.326/.388 with a homer every 47 at-bats.

Clearly, Jeter was a much better minor league hitter, though Desmond showed more extra-base power.

Defensively, their minor league statistics were almost identical.

Jeter played 451 minor league games and committed 133 errors, one every 3.33 games. Desmond played in 638 minor league games and made 189 errors, or one every 3.33 games.

Amazing.

Desmond did have a better range factor in the minors, though, 4.47 to Jeter’s 4.40.

Both players had a September call-up before taking over as their respective team’s everyday shortstop the next season.  Let’s compare their offensive production at the May 29th mark of that first season:

At-Bats:

Jeter: 156

Desmond: 152

Runs:

Jeter: 26

Desmond: 18

Hits:

Jeter: 42

Desmond: 41 

Doubles:

Jeter: 3

Desmond: 7

Triples:

Jeter: 3

Desmond: 2

Home Runs:

Jeter: 2

Desmond: 4

Runs Batted In:

Jeter: 21

Desmond: 25

Batting Average/On Base Pct./Slugging Pct.

Jeter: .269/.374/.365

Desmond: .270/.311/.421 

At this stage of the season, Jeter was able to draw more walks and hit for a higher on-base percentage but Desmond has shown more power, having more doubles, home runs, and RBI. 

There is no question that Desmond, at least offensively, is the equal of Jeter at this early stage in their careers.

Now let’s compare Jeter’s rookie-season statistics with Desmond’s:

Runs:

Jeter: 104

Desmond: 59

Hits:

Jeter: 183

Desmond: 141

Doubles:

Jeter: 25

Desmond: 27

Triples:

Jeter: 6

Desmond: 4

Home Runs:

Jeter: 10

Desmond: 10

Runs Batted In: 

Jeter: 78

Desmond: 65

Batting Average/ On-Base Pct. / Slugging Pct.

Jeter: .314/.370/.402

Desmond: .269/.308/.392

Jeter batted at or near the top of the Yankees lineup in 1996 while Desmond hit mostly at the bottom of the Nationals lineup in 2010. However, when he was moved up to batting second, his production blossomed. Desmond hit .326/.359/.489 in 201 at-bats.

That would explain some of the difference between the players’ on-base percentages and batting averages (Desmond, batting seventh or eighth, sees far fewer quality pitches than Jeter did batting first or second).

That said, it is clear that Desmond will never have the high batting average and on-base percentage of Jeter, but he will hit for a little more power.

In his young career, Desmond is averaging 14 home runs and 77 RBI over a 162-game season while Jeter has averaged 17 homers and 81 RBI (but it took Jeter four seasons to begin to show the power that Desmond is showing right now).

Defense is where the comparisons between Jeter and Desmond gets interesting.

Again, let’s compare Jeter’s first full season in the major leagues with what Desmond is projected to do this season:

Errors:

Jeter: 22

Desmond: 34

Double Plays:

Jeter 83

Desmond: 87

Fielding Percentage:

Jeter: .969

Desmond: .947

RTOT (number of runs above or below average player at that position)

Jeter: -14

Desmond: -9

Range Factor (the player’s defensive range)

Jeter: 3.82

Desmond: 4.49

A couple of things stand out here. First, Desmond makes a lot of errors. Second, his far superior range allows him to finish more double plays and get to balls that Jeter can’t get to, saving his team some of the runs that his errors allow. 

If you look just at errors and fielding percent, Jeter wins hands down in the players’ first-year comparison.

But if you look at all the factors, Desmond has the potential to be a very special defensive short stop. 

Can Ian Desmond cut down on that ugly error total? Yes, I think so. Jeter once committed 56 errors in the minor leagues, so if Jeter can get better, so can Desmond. 

So, was Jim Bowden right that spring day in Viera Florida when he said flat out that Desmond reminded him favorably of the Yankees’ all-star shortstop? 

Derek Jeter is a one-of-a-kind shortstop, so any comparison to him is patently unfair. That said, it is conceivable that Ian Desmond could have a career similar to—but not as good as—Jeter. 

If Desmond’s power increases like Jeter’s did, Desmond could become an above-average defensive shortstop with 20 home run power.

Let’s forget Bowden’s comparison to Jeter and just say that Ian Desmond returned from the abyss of unfulfilled minor league talent and has helped transform a 100+ loss team into a franchise that is on the periphery of respectability.

And that’s good enough for me.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As good as he is, Evan Longoria is not single-handedly winning your fantasy baseball league for you. Why? Because most of the owners in your leagues are getting fairly off-setting numbers out of their first round picks.

However, the players discussed here could win you that championship, because while everyone is getting minimal value from their late-round picks, you could be getting early-round numbers.

This doesn’t mean you should reach for them in the rounds where their value might end up, but you should target them late, and enjoy the results. (All projected draft rounds are in a 12-team standard snake draft)

Begin Slideshow

As a way to both identify sleepers and help prepare owners in case they miss a player they were targeting, this is another new series of articles that I am going to be doing on the site. Let me know what you think; if you have any suggestions let me know either here or via e-mail.

With that, let’s get going.

Shortstop is one of the thinner positions for fantasy owners to try and fill in 2011.  There are two premier options then a series of question marks.  One of the mid-level players owners may target is Alexei Ramirez, who has proven that despite a consistent slow start in April, by year’s end his numbers will be more than usable.

For a more in depth look at my thoughts on Ramirez, click here for an article I previously wrote.

The bottom line with Ramirez is while he has shown 20/20 potential, he isn’t quite up to that level.  At 29-years-old (he’ll turn 30 in September), there is a good chance that what we’ve seen is exactly what we are going to get:

• He seems to be about a 20 HR hitter, though there is room for potentially a few more
• He has the potential to score runs, as he’s improved in all three seasons in the Major Leagues and could potentially find a spot in the No. 2 hole of the White Sox lineup (though, a better walk rate would certainly help)
• He doesn’t appear to have great potential on the base paths, as he has been successful on just 40 of 62 attempts over his Major League career
• He is a solid average hitter with a good eye at the plate, but he’s not likely to be a .300 plus hitter

There’s no arguing that, given the lack of true top tier fantasy options, Ramirez is going to be a solid option in all formats.  However, are you willing to use a fifth, sixth or seventh round pick on someone who appears to be around a .280, 20 HR, 15 SB option?

If not, the answer for you is to wait until significantly later in your draft, where a potential steal sits in the Nationals’ Ian Desmond.  In his first full Major League season, he hit .269 with 10 HR, 65 RBI, 59 runs and 17 SB in 525 AB.

At 25-years-old, however, there is certainly room for growth in these numbers.

He’s never shown elite power, so it’s hard to imagine him developing into a 18-24 HR hitter, much like Ramirez currently is.  Still, he hit 10 last season with a HR/FB of 7.7 percent.  In 2008 at Double-A he hit 12 HR in 323 AB, so maybe, just maybe, he can add a few more HR as he gets older and stronger. 

Basically, he’s probably a 13-16 HR hitter, which is close enough to Ramirez.  If he could improve on a 52.7 percent groundball rate, more power would certainly come, but at this point it’s hard to expect that.

The speed is something he has already shown, and he does have the potential to reach 20 plus.  He’s had as many as 33 in a season (back in 2005) and had 22 in 2009 between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors. 

He spent a lot of time at the bottom of the Nationals order, but they also gave him 184 AB hitting second (.326, four HR, 19 RBI, nine SB).  They clearly are going to let him run, but if the Nationals opt to hit him second, I would say 20 SB is a given.

The average is a slight concern, hitting .269 despite posting a BABIP of .317.  Last season he posted a strikeout rate of 20.8 percent, which when coupled with the lack of excessive power, is a problem. 

Over his minor league career he posted a strikeout rate of 21.9 percent, though in 2009 between Double and Triple-A he did post a 20.4 percent mark.  It is possible that, at his age, he continues to improve there, but it would appear that .280 may be his upside.

Obviously, the comparison is not perfect.  If Desmond hits his highs, it looks like he could match Ramirez, but let’s not consider Ramirez a lock to replicate his 2010 success either.  Remember, in 2009 he hit .277 with 15 HR and 14 SB.

Let’s look at it statistic-by-statistic:

• Average: Ramirez has more upside, though it wouldn’t be surprising if both hit around .275
• Home Runs: Ramirez definitely has the advantage, with his floor (probably around 16) around Desmond’s apparent ceiling.  Still, Ramirez at 20 and Desmond at 15 is not a drastic difference, especially from a position where many of your competitors won’t get much power.
• RBI: Ramirez has never had more then 77 in a season, so there’s no reason to think that he’ll surpass 85 in 2010; Desmond had 65 in his rookie season and could easily be in the 70-75 range depending on where he hits
• Runs: For both Ramirez and Desmond, their team’s offseason moves and where they ultimately hit in the lineup will go a long way in determining this, but like the RBI the two should be pretty close
• Stolen Bases: This is the area that Desmond has the advantage, as he could be in the 20-25 range while Ramirez will be around 15

Ramirez certainly has the higher upside overall, but there is a fairly good chance that at the end of 2011 the two could be virtually even in value.  Ramirez is going to have a little more power, Desmond a little more speed.

Would I rather have Ramirez?  Absolutely, as displayed by my initial shortstop rankings (click here to view), but if that doesn’t work out I wouldn’t be upset grabbing Desmond and pairing him with someone like Stephen Drew or Rafael Furcal (or, if you are really lucky, Starlin Castro).  Basically, another high upside gamble and hope that one of them pays off.

What about you?  Is Desmond someone you wouldn’t mind as a fallback option?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Lately a lot of the fresh faces in new places are making the most out of their change of scenery. This week it’s time for you to take advantage! Let’s stroll though and see who to sit and who to start.

Start ‘Em

Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals, 23 percent owned

As long as your league doesn’t count fielding percentage or errors, then Desmond is your man this week. He’s been hot after the break, hitting .304 with a .790 OPS since. All of his games next week are at home where he’s hit all but one of his home runs. Against his team’s two opponents next week (CHC, STL), Desmond’s hitting .500 through 20 at-bats this year.

Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs, 84 percent owned

You can expect this new acquisition to pay some major dividends this week for the Dodgers. First up, he plays in Milwaukee against the Brewers, where he has a career mark of .368 and a .451 OBP through 102 at-bats—great numbers with a large sample size. 

He also has a .400-plus average against three of the five Brewers starters. His numbers against the Rockies and at Coors Field are great too. Lifetime he’s hitting .327 at Coors Field and .299 against the entire current staff.

Pat Burrell, San Francisco Giants, 18 percent owned

“The Bat” has been on fire since being acquired from the Rays. Five of the six pitchers that he faces this week are right-handed (40 points higher against righties, and 11 of 14 home runs). Against Cincinnati’s pitching, Burrell has a career mark of .333, in 33 at-bats, with great individual numbers against Arroyo (.333, two HR in 18 AB).

Sit ‘Em

Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins, 94.8 percent owned

This week is going to be Jason Kubel’s gauntlet. He’s hitting .200 with a .290 OBP against lefties this year (a career-long weakness of his). Four of the seven starting pitchers that Kubel will face this week are left-handed. Included in those four are Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson.

Against both the Rangers pitchers and Mariners pitchers, Kubel has a combined career line of .206 in 102 AB and only one home run. This might be a career year for him, but this week showcases his career weakness.

Jorge Posada, New York Yankees, 92.6 percent owned

Posada’s numbers away this year are dismal and his numbers at both the Rogers Centre and Kaufman Stadium fall in line. In away games Posada is hitting .197, 101 points lower than at home. This year at both fields he’s a combined two for 19 (.105).

John Buck might be an affordable option to back-up since most teams only have one catcher on their roster and Buck is only owned in 12.2 percent of leagues. Over the last month he’s quietly hit .297.

Two-Start Pitchers To Use

Jake Westbrook, St. Louis Cardinals, 16 percent owned

Since being acquired from the Indians, Westbrook has thrown four consecutive quality starts. He has amassed 26 strikeouts in only 25 innings, while walking only four, and has posted a phenomenal 3.5 ground to fly-ball ratio. While he is not likely keep that rate up, this week shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for him to maintain those numbers.

PNC Park provides Westbrook with the fifth-worst place for home runs and the Pirates lineup is virgin to Westbrook, limiting their scouting of him. Washington doesn’t fare much better against Westbrook. While their park isn’t as good at containing the yardball, their lineup has only 22 hits in a career 97 at-bats against him.

Gio Gonzalez, Oakland A’s, 29.9 percent owned

Gio’s week from a distance may look like a bumpy one since they face the powerful Rangers. Yet with good, current-year numbers, Gio should make it through this week easily. So far this year Gio has pitched two shutouts against the Indians (13.2 innings total). As for the Rangers, in three starts he has maintained a 2.65 ERA and has kept the batters in check throughout his career (.227 average through 75 ABs, only two home runs).

Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians, 23.6 percent owned

This week a large sports website posted an article about using Carmona because of his two-starts. I’m here to tell you why you should do just the opposite. As a team, the A’s are hitting .344 against Carmona, with the bigger bats crushing him. Cust is hitting .500 against him with two home runs in 10 at bats. Carmona’s BAA post all-star game is a disgusting .335. He’s given up seven earned runs in 10 innings against Kansas City previously this year.

Huroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers, 86.7 percent owned

Unfortunately for Kuroda owners, he’s taking a trip to two of the top 10 homer-friendly parks in the bigs (third place for Coors Field and seventh for Miller), and his career numbers at both places are horrendous. His career ERA at Coors is 9.00 and his career ERA at Miller is 20.25!

Adding to his troubles are his career numbers against the players of both teams. Colorado players have a combined career .325 average against Kuroda through 83 at-bats. Milwaukee players are hitting .294, however in his defense, this is only through 17 at-bats.

All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com

Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce. James is a grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports.

Follow us on Twitter@TheFantasyFix

__________________________________________________________

Here are some more articles that will smack some sense into you…

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Ian Desmond is a bit of an enigma to me. He has the potential to be a speed/power combo at the plate, but his defense could eventually cost him playing time. He leads all of baseball with 27 errors. No one else has more then 17.

I know, fantasy owners don’t care about defense, but if it starts costing him playing time, it will become a major factor.

As far as his ability at the plate, there is certainly a lot that would be attractive to fantasy owners. Just look at his performance thus far:

351 At Bats
.262 Batting Average (92 Hits)
9 Home Runs
48 RBI
42 Runs
12 Stolen Bases
.296 On Base Percentage
.410 Slugging Percentage
.303 Batting Average on Balls in Play

From a shortstop, there’s a lot to like.  At the same time, there are some underlying numbers that raise a few red flags.

The first problem is his walk rate: he basically has none. He has walked just 16 times, a BB% of 4.2%. Over his minor league career, he walked 203 times in 2,375 AB, a BB% of 7.9%, so there is a little bit of hope for improvement.

That’s something to watch, because if he’s not drawing walks, his ability to score runs will be limited. His BABIP is believable, coupled with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. That’s slightly better then his minor league mark (21.9%), but not egregiously so. There could be a regression, but not a huge one.

So, if he’s going to be a .255-.270 hitter, he needs to draw ample walks to utilize his speed and score some runs. If he can’t do that, his value will be limited.

He’s more of a groundball hitter (49.8%), but does generate enough fly balls (33.0%) to be a 14-17 HR hitter. That’s about the talent he showed in the minor leagues, where he posted a 38.3% fly ball rate.

Desmond turns 25 years old in September, so it’s possible that he could still add a little more power. If he can improve on his 9.8% HR/FB, I could see him developing into a player who hits around 20 HR a year, though I wouldn’t expect much more than that.

The speed pretty much is what it is at this point. He appears to have the stuff to swipe around 20 bases a year, maybe a few more, but that’s about it.

So, when you put it together, you have a .260ish hitter with the potential to go 20/20, though it’s far from a guarantee that he gets there. He may struggle to get on base, limiting his chances to score runs, and his defense may ultimately cost him regular playing time.

Is he worth the gamble? Sure, but right now, I’m not taking him as a starter.

What are your thoughts of Desmond?  Am I being too critical?  How good do you think he could be?

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports:

• Elvis Andrus
• Brett Cecil
• Wade Davis
• David DeJesus
• Jason Donald
• John Ely
• Brett Gardner
• Gio Gonzalez
• Tom Gorzelanny
• John Jaso
• Kila Ka’aihue
• Mat Latos
• Brad Lincoln
• Jonathan Lucroy
• James McDonald
• Kris Medlen
• Mike Minor
• Brett Myers
• Jonathan Niese
• Andrew Oliver
• Manny Parra
• Jake Peavy
• Buster Posey
• Sean Rodriguez
• Pablo Sandoval
• Mike Stanton
• Andres Torres
• Travis Wood

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Are you hurting in the RBI category? Here are some reasonably available players that can help you out.

Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Joyce had 14 RBIs over the past 15 days while hitting .286 with 8 runs and 4 HR. On the year he’s hitting .244 with 13 runs, 5 HR, and 20 RBI in 31 games. Matt is owned in three percent of ESPN and 11 percent of CBS leagues.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Houston Astros
Johnson had 13 RBI over the past 15 days while hitting .449 with nine runs, 4 HR, and one SB. On the year he’s hitting .343 with 17 runs, 4 HR, 23 RBI, and two SB in 40 games. Chris is owned in 25 percent of ESPN and 44 percent of CBS leagues.

Neil Walker, 2B/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Walker had 10 RBI over the past 15 days while hitting .345 with 5 runs and 2 HR. On the year he’s hitting .300 with 27 runs, 5 HR, 26 RBI, and two SB in 53 games. Neil is owned in 26 percent of ESPN and 52 percent of CBS leagues.

Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
Desmond had nine RBIs over the past 15 days while hitting .295 with 7 runs, one HR, and one SB. On the year he’s hitting .260 with 38 runs, seven HR, 45 RBI, and nine SB. Ian is owned in eight percent of ESPN and 32 percent of CBS leagues.

Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Ruiz had seven RBI over the past 15 days while hitting .310 with four runs and a HR. On the year he’s hitting .282 with 22 runs, three HR, and 20 RBI. Carlos is owned in three percent of ESPN and 29 percent of CBS leagues.

Also check out:
– Fantasy Baseball Box Score Breakouts 8/2/10
– Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitcher Option for 8/3/10

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The nation has laid witness to the dominance of Stephen Strasburg and now it’s time for the Washington Nationals to claim their spot amongst the upper echelon of baseball.

While it is obvious that this franchise has been in a shambles for years, the Nationals benefited from their ineptitude by getting Strasburg and teenage hitting phenomenon Bryce Harper. These unique talents are once in a generation talents that will become cornerstones of championship quality teams.

Having both Strasburg and Harper, in addition to Ryan Zimmerman and Drew Storen, gives the Nationals four players who each solidify specific needs found on dynastic teams (i.e. the Yankees’ big four of Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera).

The assets the Nationals have acquired during these years of loss and disappointment situate them to make a serious push in the next few seasons. This push could last for at least a decade.

If you look at similar franchises and project the future salary budget of this team in a major media market it would reasonable to see them with $100 to $140 million payroll. Their current payroll is $61.5 million and roughly half of what it will be once they are ready to become a contender.  

Here is a reasonable blueprint for the Nationals path to a championship:

(At the beginning of this upcoming off-season, the Nationals will have only $24.4 million committed dollars that could grow to $52 million through arbitration.)

1. Lockup the foursome immediately. Give Zimmerman a 10 year, $150 million dollar deal. How about a 12 year, $200 million for Strasburg? Harper would be a steal at 10 years, $170 million. Storen could be a little more economical at 8 years, $48 million.

(The payroll would climb up to $67.4 of guaranteed cash before arbitration. Let’s call it $85 million.)

2. What to do with Adam Dunn. Dunn has been a loyal and productive player without complaining or demanding a trade. He wants to be in Washington and it would make sense to keep unless another team offers up a few choice prospects. It would make sense to sign him unless they…

3. Make room for Prince Fielder. Fielder will be a free agent following next season and that would fit with the arrival of Bryce Harper. A 3-4-5 punch of Harper-Zimmerman-Fielder would be among baseball’s best. The trio would produce the runs that have eluded the Nationals this year and in years past.

(Payroll with Dunn $100 million, with Fielder $103, with another lesser known first baseman $91 million)

4. Sign or trade for a top of the rotation pitcher. Strasburg is going to be a star and will be an ace for several years, but a pennant caliber team needs two guys at the top of their rotation. The pitching free agent market looks bleak and there is only one man to be had. His name is Cliff Lee and he will be available after this season. While it is highly unlikely Lee would sign with a team not ready to contend, it is worth making a pitch to bring him in. A signing like this and bringing in Fielder would make waves in baseball and establish the Nationals as a championship contender.

(Payroll with Lee is $120 million.)

5. Complementary pieces put in place. The Nationals have pieces ready to fill these roles. Ian Desmond is a year or two away from being a solid infielder who could give them power in the bottom half of the lineup, and possibly become an option at the 2-hole.

The rotation, as presently constructed, has three started who could fill out the rest of the rotation: John Lannan, Scott Olsen and a healthy Jordan Zimmerman.Tyler Clippard is a solid seventh inning guy and could help their eighth inning setup man. The other pitchers vying for rotation spots could be used to fill out the bullpen. For instance maybe Detwiler becomes a lefty specialist or he claims a rotation spot. 

6. Players on the horizon. What is left to be said about Bryce Harper? Virtually everyone agrees that Harper will be a unique talent and can be penciled in for several All-Star appearances. However it makes sense for Harper to become the everyday right fielder so that could allow another prospect Derek Norris to handle the catching duties beginning next year. Norris could learn a lot from Pudge and the transition could also extend Rodriguez’s career another season as he shares catching duties with Norris.

Chris Marrero could start the switch from playing first base and be groomed to be Willingham’s left field replacement. His experience at first base could come in handy if they don’t pursue the two options previously suggested for the position. Danny Espinosa will allow Ian Desmond to move over to second base allowing Espinosa to play his natural position where he excels at.

7. Feed the farm. The farm system has begun to yield some pro-level talent and there will be more to come, but it is important to continue acquiring assets and nurture their young talent. This process could see an influx at the trading deadline if the Nationals decide to move some of their veterans for prospects.

Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Jason Marquis could bring back a few players who could help the team down the road. This process was hindered greatly by the wrongdoings of the previous regime and it is important Rizzo continues the development if this talent resource.

How about this 2012 Opening Day roster:

Lineup:

Bernadina-CF

Espinosa-SS

Harper-RF

Zimmerman-3B

Fielder or Dunn-1B

Norris-C

Marrero-LF

Desmond-2B

Pitcher

Rotation and bullpen:

Strasburg

Cliff Lee

Scott Olsen

Jordan Zimmerman

John Lannan

Setup: Detwiler and Clippard

Closer: Storen

TOTAL PAYROLL: $125 million

The future is beginning to look like a full ballpark and talent on the field that could be a once-in-a-generation experience that will continue to be appointment television and attendance. A dynasty is coming at all of us quickly.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There is a great deal of consternation right now about the Washington Nationals and their offensive struggles.

Writers, commentators, bloggers and fans think the team’s offense is just not good enough to keep the team around .500—maybe a little better—until Stephen Strasburg finally arrives and saves the day.

But that is simply not the case.

Below is the Nationals’ most-used lineup for 2010. Take a look at the player’s offensive production when projected over the complete season.

CF—Nyjer Morgan:                 .242/.316/.339            24 2B—15 3B—0 HR—24 RBI

2B—Cristian Guzman:               .321/.347/.403            21 2B—9 3B—0 HR—48 RBI

3B—Ryan Zimmerman:          .299/.374/.571            38 2B—0 3B—32 HR—86 RBI

1B—Adam Dunn:                    .270/.379/.546            44 2B—6 3B—32 HR—80 RBI

LF—Josh Willingham:             .275/.429/.529            22 2B—3 3B—32 HR—107 RBI

SS—Ian Desmond:                   .263/.314/.410            22 2B—6 3B—14 HR—80 RBI

C—Ivan Rodriguez:                 .325/.351/.439            27 2B—3 3B—3 HR—51 RBI

RF—Roger Bernadina:              .241/.289/.410            14 2B—7 3B—6 HR—39 RBI

Nyjer Morgan has a career average of .291/.353/.381. There is no way he will finish the season this poorly. Expect him to have a sizzling summer and approach his career numbers by September.

Pudge Rodriguez is 38 and will no doubt end the season somewhere in the neighborhood of .260/.330/.440. Even though he will cool off, Rodriguez should still hit well enough to make him an offensive asset.

The only hole in the lineup is in right field where Justin Maxwell flunked terribly. Willie Harris hasn’t hit well since 2008. Roger Bernadina, after a remarkable five-game span, is returning to the real world.

Kevin Mench, who is Triple-A Syracuse’s every-day right fielder, is currently hitting .303/.373/.379 for the Chiefs with eight doubles, a home run, and 21 RBI.

Mench, 31, played seven seasons in the major leagues and has a 162-game career average of .269/.326/.460 with 21 homers and 76 RBI.

A right-handed batter, Mench hits lefties well. He, and perhaps Willie Harris, are the best options for the Nationals can right now unless they make a trade for a veteran right-fielder.

Six of the eight position players are providing the Nationals with satisfactory to above-average offense. A seventh (Morgan) will eventually hit to his potential, and sooner or later, the Nationals will fix the problem in right field.

From what I can tell, the Nationals struggle offensively because the team lacks timely hitting with runners in scoring position —and especially with two out.

I think the offense—with the exception of right-field—is certainly strong enough and the team’s middle-of-the-lineup sluggers (Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham) might be the best in the league right now.

A proven right fielder and the addition of Stephen Strasburg and Chien-Ming Wang to the starting rotation—and the reintroduction of Jason Marquis—make the Nationals a team that could contend for the National League wild card, at least from the periphery, until late into the season.

Let’s wait until John Lannan, Stephen Strasburg, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jason Marquis anchor the Nationals’ rotation before we worry about the team’s offense.

The Nationals would then find their fifth starter from a group that includes Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, Luis Atilano, Craig Stammen, and J.D. Martin and could use one or more of the remaining starters to nab a pretty good right fielder on the trade market.

This Nationals’ team will win 77-82 games in 2010, perhaps 85-88 if they find that veteran right fielder with a potent bat.

Man, this has been a fun season. Can you imagine how much more fun it will be once the final pieces of the puzzle finally fall into place?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com