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The Texas Rangers have been known for quite some time as a team that usually wins with their bats. They are third in Major League Baseball since 2000 in runs scored and this is a team that has only been to the postseason twice since the turn of the millennium.

This offense has featured many prolific names but there are five that stand out from all the rest. We will be ranking these players by their WAR (wins above replacement) which is a stat that represents the number of wins that a player’s presence translates to compared to a replacement player.

Since runs are dependent on other batters, it is not appropriate to gauge worth using that stat which is why WAR is being used. Read on for more.

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It would be misleading to characterize second base as a position of scarcity in 2012.

Yes, there are no certifiable facsimiles of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips or Dan Uggla after the first 60 picks of a 12-team, mixed-league draft.

But the entire Top 30 list is also chock-full of 25-and-under potential dynamos (Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Gordon Beckham) and veteran stalwarts (Aaron Hill, Neil Walker, Kelly Johnson, Marco Scutaro, Sean Rodriguez) who are still in their prime years—and could break out with just a little good fortune, here and there.

1. Robinson Cano, Yankees 
Skinny: A lead-pipe cinch for 25 HRs/100 runs/105 RBIs/.305 BA over the next five seasons.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Skinny: The reasonable choice for fantasy owners who value power, speed AND high batting average.

3. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
Skinny: My personal favorite for this position—and that was before he racked up 121 runs last season.

4. Dan Uggla, Braves
Skinny: Fantasy owners in Round 4 are praying for 30 homers…and anything above .260 in hitting. 

5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
Skinny: Let’s assume his 2010 numbers (29 HRs/83 RBIs/11 steals) are a baseline measure of production.

6. Chase Utley, Phillies
Skinny: A reputation pick here, and one that might look ambitious with Ryan Howard sidelined for a while.

7. Ben Zobrist, Rays
Skinny: The quietest 20-HR/100-run/20-steal potential of all middle infielders…and Big Z has OF eligibility.

8. Brandon Phillips, Reds
Skinny: A top-7 candidate for all five categories. Just don’t expect career marks in HRs or RBIs.

9. Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks
Skinny: Don’t be surprised if Roberts passes the 20-20 threshold at age 31. A great addition at Round 12.

10. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
Skinny: Ackley, who possesses the highest upside of anyone outside the top 8, has 15-40-.310 potential.

11. Howard Kendrick, Angels
Skinny: A slightly unfair ranking, given his solid 2011 campaign. Needs to crack 70 RBIs this season.

12. Jason Kipnis, Indians
Skinny: Kipnis is more Pedroia or Phillips than Uggla or Utley. Either way, he’s a long-term keeper.

13. Jemile Weeks, Athletics
Skinny: A dark-horse candidate for 85 runs/.310 average at age 25. Power numbers may never be there.

14. Marco Scutaro, Rockies
Skinny: Scutaro’s value will get a nice bounce around April 10, when he secures 2B/SS eligibility.

15. Neil Walker, Pirates
Skinny: The wild swings in batting average and run production can be frustrating. Don’t reach on Draft Day. 

16. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays
Skinny: Two full seasons of middling batting average have diluted Johnson’s respectable power potential.

17. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
Skinny: Beckham has too many physical gifts to be this average in his prime. A solid late-round flier.

18. Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
Skinny: Went on a hitting tear last year after being traded…but the odds of batting .300 for the season are long.

19. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
Skinny: Anything above a pedestrian batting average would boost him into the top 15—he’s that close.

20. Sean Rodriguez, Rays
Skinny: The 2B-SS-3B versatility opens doors for S-Rod. Can he be a steady 15-15 producer?

21. Jose Altuve, Astros
Skinny: A late-season find for the anemic Astros in 2011. Can he amass 30-35 steals in Year 2 of his development?

22. Ryan Raburn, Tigers
Skinny: Raburn needs a hot start to ward off slick fielders Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago at the 4-spot.

23. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
Skinny: Could make a modest leap in this countdown with a productive spring. Intriguing prospect.

24. Daniel Murphy, Mets
Skinny: An under-the-radar talent who’ll bring modest value to all five categories—especially hitting.

25. Omar Infante, Marlins
Skinny: Expect a noticeable bump in runs…and then hope the versatile Infante flirts with .300 again.

26. Brian Roberts, Orioles
Skinny: In the realm of minor miracles, I’d be thrilled with 10 HRs, 75 runs and 20 steals.

27. Mark Ellis, Dodgers
Skinny: Ellis has 15-15 potential in the Senior Circuit, even at the ripened age of 34.

28. Orlando Hudson, Padres
Skinny: A nice deep-sleeper option for steals and runs—if the Padres get aggressive on the basepaths.

29. Mike Aviles, Red Sox
Skinny: The preferred fantasy placeholder over Nick Punto, while Jose Iglesias gets more seasoning in the minors.

30a. Darwin Barney, Cubs
Skinny: A last-round sleeper for the 2B/SS slot in NL-only and 14-team mixed leagues.

30b. Justin Turner, Mets
Skinny: Good minor-league numbers suggest a mini-breakout in the bigs. Could rise up the ranks during Grapefruit League play.

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In 2011 four players hit 30 home runs and stole 30 bases. 

• Matt Kemp (39/40)
• Ryan Braun (33/33)
• Jacoby Ellsbury (32/39)
• Ian Kinsler (32/30)

Considering Ryan Braun will play at most 112 games this season, I don’t see him being a repeat offender. The speed will always be there for Ellsbury, but only 20 home runs in 1,688 plate appearances prior to 2011. I don’t buy another 30 home run season for Ellsbury. 

These are the guys you need on your fantasy roster in 2012 to capture the elusive HR and SB categories. 

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Kinsler got out of the gate early slugging a home run in his first three games. He hit his fourth by April 10. He hit his fifth on April 22 and has gone 26 games without hitting another one. His power drought isn’t the only concern.

Obviously, the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Ian Kinsler is his injury history. He has played in 43 of 45 games so far, which puts him on pace for 154 games. He’s never played 145 games in a season so the threat of a trip to the D.L. is legitimate.

Now that we discussed the elephant in the room (injuries), there is also a hippo in the room (his average). Kinlser has batted .263 and .253 in the past so his 2011 .228 average through March 20 doesn’t come as a huge shock. While it is still far below his lifetime average of .278, he has at times struggled at the plate.

His BABIP is just .231. Last year it was .313, but in 2009 it was .241. From 2006-08 it was .304, .279 and .334. Clearly his history suggests that a higher BABIP for the remainder of the season is more likely, it wouldn’t be the first time that he turned in a stinker in this sabermetric.

An encouraging sign is his reduced strikeout rate (12.0 percent), which is down from 14.6 percent last year and 13.6 percent in 2009. It’s the lowest rate he has had in the big leagues.

Despite his struggles, Kinsler is still on pace to score 87 runs, hit 18 HRs, knock in 61 runs and swipe 29 bases. If his luck and average can improve, those numbers could all increase.

It will still take a nice haul to land Kinsler, but his asking price may be as low as it gets. He’s hitless in his past 16 at bats and is batting .219 for the month. If you’re looking to add some pop and/or speed to your lineup it’s worth looking into a trade of Kinsler.

Also check out:

• Can Dan Uggla Turn Around His Ugly Season?
• Should You Buy Low on Andrew McCutchen?
• Is It Time to Panic About Brandon League?
• Help Is Coming:  Should You Add Brian Matusz?
• Is Matt Joyce For Real?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Heard This Blog ranked the top five Jewish current baseball players

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The biggest question at second base heading into the 2011 season is: What will fantasy owners get from Phillies second baseman Chase Utley?

When healthy and at his best, Utley is elite. He has posted career highs in the standard five rotisserie categories, as follows: .332-131-33-105-23.

The problem is the health, or lack thereof, of Utley’s knee, which will likely land him on the disabled list to start the season. From a fantasy perspective, the bigger worry is that improvement in his knee seems to be moving at a snail’s pace. How soon will he be back? Will the injury linger and affect his performance when he’s back on the field?

Here are our top 15 fantasy second basemen for 2011:

1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: With the exception of stolen bases, Cano puts up elite stats across the board at a relatively weak position. Cano, who set career highs in home runs (29) and runs batted in (109) in 2010, has the second-most hits in all of baseball over the past two seasons.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: In addition to hitting over .300 for his career, Pedroia gives fantasy owners the potential for a 15-20 season. Despite missing half of last year, Pedroia ranks 10th in the majors in runs scored (286) from 2008 to 2010.

3. Dan Uggla, Braves: At a position where power hitters are less common, Uggla has been a model of consistency when it comes to power. In each of the past four seasons, Uggla has hit 31-33 home runs and has driven in 90-plus runs including a career-high 105 last season. But will you get his career-low .243 (2009) or career-high .287 (2010) batting average? Although he’s a career .354 hitter in his new home ballpark (Turner Field), the answer likely falls somewhere in between that range.

4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: The biggest knock on Kinsler is playing time (123.6 games per season over past five years). If healthy, Kinsler has the potential to put up elite numbers. For example, when he played a career-high 144 games (2009), Kinsler hit 31 homers and stole 31 bases.

5. Brandon Phillips, Reds: For the first time in four seasons, Phillips failed to have a 20-20 season. In 2010, he finished with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases. The majority of Phillips’ at-bats in 2010 came at one of the top two spots of the lineup after mostly batting cleanup in 2009. The effect? His runs batted in dropped from 98 in 2009 to a five-year low of 59 in 2010.

6. Chase Utley, Phillies: Two seasons removed from a 30-20 season, Utley will most likely begin the 2011 season on the disabled list after missing a total of 47 games last year. If he were healthy, Utley would be second on this list.

7. Rickie Weeks, Brewers: Speaking of health, Weeks played an average of 95 games per season from 2005 through 2009 before playing a career-high 160 games last year. Naturally, he set career-highs in runs scored (112), hits (175), home runs (29) and runs batted in (83) in 2010. The only way he approaches those numbers again is if he can stay healthy for two seasons in a row. Before last year, he hadn’t done that for one season in a row.

8. Martin Prado, Braves: Prado, who played mostly second base and some third base last year, is moving to left field for the Braves and soon will be eligible at three fantasy positions. In a career-high 140 games last season, Prado hit .307 and 15 home runs with 100 runs scored.

9. Gordon Beckham, White Sox: After hitting 14 homers with 63 runs batted in over 103 games in his rookie season, Beckham seemed poised for a breakout season last year. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft got off to an incredibly slow start in 2010, but he picked up the pace as he hit .310 after the All-Star break. Beckham, who will bat second for the White Sox this season, is a guy I’ve targeted in most of my drafts this year.

10. Ben Zobrist, Rays: Like Prado, Zobrist has multi-position eligibility as a second baseman and outfielder (and first baseman in Yahoo! leagues). After a breakout season in 2009 (.297-91-27-91-17), Zobrist really struggled down the stretch last season. After the All-Star break, Zobrist hit only .177 and hit .200 or lower per month from July to October. On a positive note, Zobrist stole a career-high 24 bases in 2010 and will likely have even more base-stealing opportunities as the team’s leadoff hitter.

11. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays: Not only did Hill have the lowest BABIP (.196) of his career, it was the lowest in all of baseball. Even with the horrible BABIP and batting average (.205), Hill still managed to hit 26 home runs in 2010.

12. Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: In his first season with the Diamondbacks, Johnson set career highs in runs (93), hits (166), home runs (26), runs batted in (71) and stolen bases (13) in 2010. Johnson hit .311 with 16 of his 26 home runs at Chase Field last year.

13. Howie Kendrick, Angels: The direction of his batting averages over the past four seasons isn’t what you’d like to see: .322 (2007), .306 (2008), .291 (2009) and .279 (2010). That said, he set career highs in several counting statistics: runs scored (67), runs batted in (75), stolen bases (14) and tied his career high in home runs (ten).

14. Chone Figgins, Mariners: Since 2004, Figgins has stolen 30-plus bases every season. In five of the past six seasons, he has stolen 40-plus bases. Figgins is having a good spring (.349 average and four steals in 16 games).

15. Brian Roberts, Orioles: When healthy, Roberts has provided fantasy owners with lots of runs and stolen bases and a decent batting average. Before missing 100-plus games in 2010, Roberts stole 30-plus bases for four consecutive seasons although he went from 50 (2007) to 40 (2008) to 30 (2009).

Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.

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In 2009 Ian Kinsler was just the fifth second baseman to complete a 30/30 season since 2000. Think about that—During those heady days of crazy power numbers he was only the fifth second baseman to accomplish this feat. That should give you a pretty good idea of just how good this young man is capable of becoming.

Below are Kinsler’s stats for the last three seasons:

Obviously 2009 really sticks out because of his power numbers and a nice amount of steals. Unfortunately, it also came with his lowest batting average in the majors. Runs have been fairly consistent, averaging about .74 runs per game played. The rub with Kinsler has been just that, how many games can you expect him to play?

Normally I try not to let spring training stats affect my opinion of a player too much, but with a potential star such as Kinsler coming off a down season and injuries it’s important to see how he bounces back. If his spring stats are any indication, it could be a big year for the Rangers second baseman. Through March 14^th, Kinsler is leading the Cactus League in home runs with five and hitting .382 in 34 at-bats. Additionally, from a ranking standpoint you have to slide him up your list with Chase Utley out for an undetermined period of time.

Adding to those factors is his move to the top of the Rangers lineup. While his RBI numbers will most likely go down, you can expect more runs and steal opportunities which should more than make up for it. Pull all those things together, and it points to a big bounce back opportunity for Ian Kinsler.

2011 Fantasy Forecast: 110 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB, .280 Avg

Previous Bounce Back Selections: Pablo Sandoval, Justin Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bay, Russell Martin

Brian is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of the 4th and Home Radio show on Blog Talk Radio.

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Blessed with a solid core of dynamic hitters, talented pitchers and skilled defenders, the Texas Rangers possess an exciting, well-rounded team that will endeavor to defend their 2010 American League Championship. 

Stars like Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Adrian Beltre have track records to give an idea of what to expect from them in 2011. If health permits, the Rangers know what type of production they will likely receive from well-established players as they seek to return to the World Series.

To do so, they will need the production from the stars, as well as players stepping up their game throughout the squad. With loads of emerging talent throughout their roster, there is any number of players who could turn a corner in 2011 to make valuable contributions to the Rangers efforts to once again reach the playoffs.

As we steadily progress towards Opening Day, let’s check out some of the Rangers poised to make a leap in their development and become significant players for Texas in 2011. 

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When you mention the name Ian Kinsler, there are a few thoughts that likely instantly come to mind:

1. Extremely disappointing 2010
2. Injury prone
3. 20/20 upside

We all know he is likely going to miss at least a little bit of time at some point in 2011.  He has never played more than 144 games in a season (2009) and played in just 103 last season.  When you draft him, you do so expecting to have to utilize a replacement option.

The real question, however, is if he can rebound from ’10 and reach that potential upside, just like he did in ’09.  Before we can answer that, let’s look at how bad he was last year: 391 AB, .286 BA (112 Hits), 9 HR, 45 RBI, 73 R, 15 SB, .382 OBP, .412 SLG, .313 BABIP.

Outside of his OBP, which was actually significantly better than his ’09 mark (.327), and his average (.253), the numbers were extremely disappointing.  You can blame it on injuries all you want, but even when he was on the field the production just wasn’t there.

The improvement in average and OBP are extremely explainable and we’ll get to that in a moment.

You notice that I said 20/20 potential in the intro, despite the fact that he actually went 30/30 in ’09 (31 HR, 31 SB).  The fact of the matter is that there is little chance that he replicates the power number, specifically.  Just look at his fly ball percentage for the past five years:

• 2006 – 44.2 percent
• 2007 – 45.7 percent
• 2008 – 43.3 percent
• 2009 – 54.0 percent
• 2010 – 41.6 percent

Which of these numbers doesn’t belong?  That fly ball rate not only helps to explain the fall in power, but also the improvement in the average department.  Fly balls don’t lend themselves to good luck, meaning a low BABIP is expected.  Look no further than his .241 mark in ’09 for proof.  Getting away from being a bit homer happy helped Kinsler get back to being a good option in both the average and OBP departments.

The Rangers plan on taking advantage of that improvement in 2011.  According to Jeff Wilson of the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram, “Manager Ron Washington said that he is planning to have Ian Kinsler bat leadoff in 2011 and move Michael Young to sixth in the lineup so that he can be in a spot where he will have an opportunity to drive in more runs. Elvis Andrus will bat second, Young’s former spot.”

That should give him a good chance to return to the days of scoring 95-plus runs (as he did from 2007-2009).  Yes, it will likely lead to fewer RBI opportunities, but that really shouldn’t be Kinsler’s game.  He’s not a big-time power hitter ,and hitting him lower in the order will only expose him further.

Kinsler should be a top-of-the-order option, where he can get on base, steal a few bags and score plenty of runs.  If you draft him expecting someone who is going to hit 30 HR and drive in at least 85, you are going to be sorely disappointed. 

Basically, put 2009 out of your mind, because it is not likely to be repeated.

What we should be looking for is the player he was in 2007 and 2008, meaning 20 HR, 25-plus SB and 95-plus runs.  If he can do that, what is there to complain about?

What are your thoughts on Kinsler?  What are you expecting from him in 2011? 

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Rios, Alex
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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If you play in a standard five-by-five league (i.e., one that includes batting average), you will want to check out our standard league rankings by clicking here.  For those who utilize OBP, let’s take a look at how that changes the rankings (and it does so fairly significantly):

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
4. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
5. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
6. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
7. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
8. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
9. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
10. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
11. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners
15. Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Minnesota Twins

Thoughts:

• Ben Zobrist struggled in ’10, no one is going to argue that fact, but he still managed a 14.0 percent walk rate.  That helped him post a .346 OBP despite struggling with a .273 BABIP.  Let’s not forget that he is just a year removed from a .405 OBP courtesy of a 15.2 percent walk rate and .326 BABIP.  There certainly is reason to believe that he could post a tremendous mark once again in ’11.  Couple that with 20/20 potential and there is an awful lot to like, pushing him significantly up this list.
• The player who falls the most thanks to the removal of average and addition of on-base percentage is Aaron Hill.  Even in his big, breakout 2009 campaign (.286, 36 HR, 108 RBI, 103 R), he managed just a .330 OBP thanks to a 5.7 percent walk rate.  Yes, the average is going to rebound due to his historic poor luck in ’10 (you can read more about it by clicking here), but he’s just never going to post a strong OBP (career .325 mark).
• Another loser is Brandon Phillips, who has a career walk rate of 5.9 percent and OBP of .316.  You still have to like him thanks to 20/20 potential, but there certainly are options with significantly more upside in the OBP department.  One who is close is Martin Prado, but his advantage in OBP isn’t enough considering Phillips could out produce him in HR, SB, RBI and R (depending on where he hits in the lineup).
• Tsuyoshi Nishioka posted a 12.2 percent walk rate over his last two seasons in Japan.  Granted, we really don’t know how his game is going to translate to the Major Leagues, but at that point in the draft he is well worth the risk due to his potential in OBP, R and SB.
• Who should be listed at No. 4, Dan Uggla or Ian Kinsler?  I know we all want to push Uggla up, thanks to OBP of .360, .354 and .369 the past three years but we can’t overlook Kinsler’s abilities as well.  In 2008 he actually posted an OBP of .375 and last season he was at .382.  Of course, he always struggles with injuries and his walk rate has fluctuated by a fairly large margin from year to year.  I’m going to give Uggla the nod for now, but it certainly is open for discussion.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 OBP rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen

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