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After getting knocked around by the Mets this afternoon, Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova said that today, “was one of the worst days of my life. I wasn’t pitching right.”

Well, you might have to get used to it, Ivan.

The Mets, with a lineup not expected to provoke memories of 1986, knocked out eight hits and drew two walks in just 2.2 innings. Nova, who has struggled this spring, saw his exhibition ERA rise to 8.06.

Nova has hardly been dominant this spring, but he was hardly dominant last season despite going 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA. His fastball averages 93 mph, but he lacks a strikeout pitch, leading to a low rate of 5.4 strikeouts per nine in 207.1 career innings—the offspeed stuff that would lead to stranding batters at home plate just isn’t present.

What made Nova effective last year was that he had one of the highest ground-ball/fly-ball ratios in the AL and was very difficult to take out of the park, particularly outside of Yankee Stadium. This was both a positive development and a bit of a nervous mystery in the making for three reasons:

1. Nova hadn’t been billed as a ground-ball pitcher coming into the season, and there is no guarantee that he will be one again.
2. Ground-ball pitchers are very dependent on their defenses to turn grounders into outs, and with an aging Alex Rodriguez at third and ol’ I-Can-Only-Go-To-My-Right Derek Jeter at shortstop, Nova isn’t going to get a lot of help.
3. Even if Nova had a peak Graig Nettles and Ozzie Smith behind him, sometimes pitch-to-contact guys just have off-years. Balls hit right at fielders last season find holes this season.

In baseball, the only proof against failure is stranding the batter at home plate. Any other outcome may not result in disaster,—indeed, most of the time it won’t—but it at least risks it.

Before last year’s breakthrough, the conventional wisdom was that Nova’s shallow arsenal would ultimately condemn him to a life in the bullpen. That may still be the case. Batting average on balls in play isn’t always the answer, but sometimes it does provide a hint.

And, in Nova’s case, last season’s .284 average is going to have to hold steady or drop for him to keep winning games if he’s walking three and striking out five per nine innings. Just a tick higher, and last season’s strand rate is going to plummet.

It’s possible we’re already seeing a bit of that this spring.

Manny Banuelos, come on down? It could happen sooner than you think.

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The best phrase to describe the pair of young pitchers in the Yankees rotation should be polar opposites. Despite both arriving on the Yankees MLB team, they took completely different roads to reach where they are today.

Most intriguing is how the trend has continued. One of them is making the most of his shot at the majors, and the other is making daily bids for his spot in the rotation.

Phil Hughes was the American, drafted young and coaxed along in the minors. He quickly became one of the top prospects in baseball, and he was the first name brought up with every trade rumor.

Some impressive starts, including a no-hitter through six innings, his second career start and the only playoff win for the Yankees, and he earned himself a spot in the rotation the next season.

This is where the wheels fall off. Despite being handed a rotation spot from the onset of spring training, he didn’t win a game and pitched to an ERA over 6 for the season. The year after that, he was 3-2 with a 5.45 ERA and had to beg the Yankees to keep him on the MLB team as part of the bullpen.

He found a lot of success in the bullpen. He posted an impressive 1.40 ERA and was a catalyst in helping the Yankees take the division in 2009. His successful run continued into last season when he was 10-2 with a 3.58 ERA into July.

The success didn’t last. Despite earning an All-Star Game appearance, he took the loss for the AL. His second half was mediocre at best with an 8-6 record and a 4.79 ERA.

It was even worse this season when he posted an ERA of 13.94 through 3 starts before being placed on the DL with a mysterious injury.

He’s had a couple of good starts since returning, but be honest; is that the story of a pitcher who is getting the most of his ability and career? Phil Hughes is a model of inconsistency.

And then there’s Ivan Nova. He’s the antithesis of Phil Hughes. He had to earn every shot he’s gotten. Hughes was a first-round draft pick; Nova was an amateur free agent. Hughes was the deal breaker in every trade talk; Nova was lost to the rule 5 draft.

Hughes showed a lot of early success and followed it up with horrendous inconsistency; Nova had trouble getting deep into games but has blossomed into a fantastic starter.

He’s younger and less experienced than Hughes, but has already shown more promise at the MLB level. Still, it was Nova who was sent down to AAA to help make room for Phil Hughes to come off the DL. Despite the lost time, Nova still has the Yankees record for wins as a rookie pitcher.

Everything Phil Hughes has in the MLB has been given to him. He hasn’t earned his shot and he hasn’t shown the promise the Yankees saw in him. Whether it’s mechanics or mentality, he’s had a poor season. He’s had just five quality starts and still has an ERA of 6.75.

Unlike Hughes, Nova has had to work for everything. Early on during this past spring training, Nova declared he would win one of the rotation spots and it was up to the rest of the pitchers to earn it back. He backed it up with a great spring, including a no-hit bid against the Orioles.

He credits his turnaround to when he faced big league hitters in the Padres spring training camp. Even when he got sent back down to AA, he thought of himself as a big leaguer and started pitching like it.

Ivan Nova has a winning attitude that Phil Hughes needs to find. It’s not how you start out your career, it’s where you go from there.

While Nova continues to rack up wins for the Yankees, it’s Hughes who will be battling Bartolo Colon and AJ Burnett for a playoff roster spot.

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The fourth game of the New York Yankees’ young season showcased the much-talked-about sophomore stud Ivan Nova vs. the less-and-less-talked-about Scott Baker and the Minnesota Twins. Six innings and 84 pitches (50 for strikes) were plenty for Nova to earn his second career win and first of the 2011 season.

Nova brought a no-hitter into the fourth inning Monday night when Justin Morneau doubled, followed by a single by Delmon Young and another double from the veteran Jim Thome. The Twins scored again in the fifth to bring the game within a run, but the Yankees held on with a 4-3 win.

Nova’s final line for the night: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3K.

The 24-year-old Dominican won the fourth spot in the Yankees rotation with a solid spring training, while battling it out with Freddy Garcia (who won the fifth spot) and Bartolo Colon (bullpen). 

Nova is an excellent pitcher to take a gamble on and is almost guaranteed to be on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues, only currently being owned at 7.5 percent in ESPN and 16 percent in Yahoo! leagues.

With a repertoire of four pitches (the two-seamer is his bread and butter), Nova should more than often be able to outlast his opponents, giving the heavy-hitting Yankees enough time to score the needed runs for a win.

At the back end of the rotation, a 11-plus win season is very much achievable for Nova in 2011. 

So goodbye, Javier Vazquez. Yankee fans do not miss you one bit. Hellloooo Ivan Nova!

Written by Evan Marx exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com

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The San Francisco Giants are currently the toast of Major League Baseball.  Featuring the best rotation in baseball and coming off a World Series championship, the Giants look to become the first team since the 1999-2000 New York Yankees to win consecutive World Series.

A crucial contributor to the 2010 San Francisco Giants was NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey, a can’t-miss prospect who made good on his potential with the Giants by becoming one of the team’s leaders both on and off the field.

In 2011, the Giants have another such player in Brandon Belt, a five-tool first baseman (how often do we say that?) who ripped up the minor leagues in his first season of pro ball and is looking to make the Giants out of spring camp.

Belt will not be the only impact rookie in the majors this season, though.  

Here we take a look at 30 rookies looking to make an impact at the major league level in 2011.

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