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In the past week the Pittsburgh Pirates have extended outfielder Andrew McCutchen and the San Diego Padres have extended outfielder Cameron Maybin. Thinking ahead, how much will it take to keep Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a Boston uniform?

McCutchen, only in the league for three years so far, just received a six-year, $51.5 million dollar extension to keep him in Pittsburgh through the 2017 and possibly 2018 seasons if they choose to pick up a $14.75 million club option.

Through three seasons, McCutchen has hit .276/.365/.458 with 51 home runs, 199 RBI, 225 runs scored and 78 stolen bases. He finished fourth in the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year voting and made his first career All-Star appearance last season.

Maybin came up with the Detroit Tigers in 2007 before being traded to Florida in the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit. After playing for the Marlins for three seasons, Maybin was traded to the San Diego Padres, where he spent the 2011 season.

Maybin has just agreed to a five-year, $25 million extension with a club option for 2017. In his five year career, Maybin has hit .255/.318/.386 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI, 175 runs scored and 59 stolen bases.

ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote an article explaining how Eric Hosmer, first baseman for the Kansas City Royals, will be the next young star to sign a long-term deal, but another player to consider is Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

After finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2008, Ellsbury had great year in 2009. Injuries plagued his 2010 campaign but he erupted back onto the Boston scene last season, showing off his power, speed, and fielding skills.

Playing in a career-high 158 games last season, Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 39 stolen bases, and 119 runs while finishing second in the AL MVP voting. Ellsbury was named to his first All-Star team while also winning a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award.

Ellsbury is only under Boston’s control through the 2013 season and the club would like to lock him up for the long-run. MLB Trade Rumors recently named Ellsbury as an extension candidate, although they caution that maybe it would be in Boston’s best interest to wait to see how he performs this year to see if 2011 was a fluke or truly representative of his level of play.

If Ellsbury can prove to GM Ben Cherington that he’s the real deal, a large, long-term contract for the speedy outfielder should be coming soon.

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This picture pretty much says it all. This is the attitude the Red Sox will have to have about the year 2011 and everything that came with it. 

It was a roller coaster-type year for the Sox in 2011, but unlike most coasters, the biggest drop off came at the end of the ride, as opposed to the beginning. 

Going 7-20 in September was the biggest free-falling coaster in MLB history—not to mention all the drama that followed! 

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The Boston Red Sox have the best offense in baseball and it’s not close. 

They hold the top spot in runs scored, average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. 

With the best offense in baseball, you’d expect the Red Sox to have a player in the MVP conversation, but not three.

Adrian Gonzalez, who leads baseball with a .353 average, was pegged as an MVP candidate from the moment he arrived in Boston in the offseason.

Few expected the Red Sox to have two other MVP candidates, but that is the case.

Joining Gonzalez in the MVP conversation are Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, both unexpected after both losing the majority of the 2010 season to injury.

In the end, the three will end up taking votes away from each other, but of the three whom is the most deserving candidate?

The case can be made for all three but Ellsbury has been a step ahead of his two teammates. Ellsbury has been electric in every facet of the game this season.

He is second on the team in batting average with a .319 average, only trailing Gonzalez. He leads the team in both stolen bases with 31, and runs scored, 83, and has hit an unprecedented 18 home runs out of the leadoff spot, which is good for second on the team. 

Ellsbury has also picked up the clutch gene this season providing walk-off hits on back-to-back nights against Cleveland last week. Gonzalez has a walk-off this season as well and Pedroia has yet to get one.

The element of surprise also plays into the fact that Ellsbury tops the list of Red Sox MVP candidates. After last season, when many questioned Ellsbury’s heart and toughness, no one could have predicted what has happened thus far in 2011. 

Ellsbury carries a 5.9 WAR—wins above replacement—making him the second most irreplaceable player on the Red Sox, just behind Pedroia who has a WAR of 6.7. Gonzalez is third on the team with a WAR of 5.2.

He leads the team in WPA—win probability added—at 3.85 as well as the clutch metric at 1.44, 1.26 points ahead of Pedroia (0.18) and 1.67 points ahead of Gonzalez (-0.23).

Sabermetrics aside, Ellsbury proves he is most valuable every night by setting the table for the offense. Ellsbury on base leads to RBI for Pedroia and Gonzalez. 

In the end, the three will likely take votes away from each other, being on the same team, and the award could go to someone like Jose Bautista or Robinson Cano. 

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In his first two years in the Major Leagues, Boston Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t been a guy who has flashed much power. In 2008 and 2009, Ellsbury hit a combined 17 home runs and had an ISO (isolated power) of .114 each season. To put that in perspective, his .114 ISO over those two seasons was fourth worst in baseball amongst outfielders, and was worse than Aaron Rowand (.148) and Mark Teahen (.142).

However, in 2011, Ellsbury has been “Hulking” up. In his first 20 games of this season, Ellsbury has already four homers and his ISO is a respectable .206. He has shown more pop than ever before and he is hitting more fly balls than ever before.

Going into Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 45.8 percent of Ellsbury’s at-bats have ended with a fly ball. That’s exactly an 11 percent increase from last season. And if you take his infield fly-ball percentage of 4.5 percent, then a whopping 52 percent of Ellsbury’s at-bats in 2011 have ended with a ball in the air.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to this recent power serge from Ellsbury. There’s the thought that hitting for more power is good for him, as it means he is becoming more of a complete player with the stick. The second thought is well, shouldn’t a guy with his speed focus on hitting line drives and getting on base?

These schools of thought have morphed into whether or not Ellsbury is becoming the next Grady Sizemore, or the next Willie Mays Hayes?

The Sizemore Argument

My buddy Odie and I always compared Ellsbury to Sizemore. Both are white, left-handed hitting center fielders, who showed tremendous speed at an early age. After two years, the speed was certainly there for the Red Sox outfielder (even more than Sizemore), but the power Sizemore developed wasn’t there for Ellsbury.

Sizemore hit 22 home runs in his first full season in the Major Leagues in 2005. However, it was the next year where Sizemore showed that he has legit power.

His fly-ball percentage increased from 31 percent in 2005 to 46.9 percent in 2006, and his ISO went from .195 to .243. His power surge netted him a .906 OPS and 28 HR for the Cleveland Indians.

What I liked about Sizemore, in the early stages of his career, was that while his power increased, all his peripherals stayed intact. He was striking out about the same as the previous season and a half (23.4 percent in ’06 to 22.6 percent in ’04 and ’05), his OBP increased (.375 in 06 to .335 in ’04 and ’05), and he was hitting just as many line drives (19.8 percent in ’06 to 21.8 percent in ’04 and ’05).

When I saw Sizemore early in his career, I certainly said the power increase is good for him and he is becoming the ultimate player. I am not so sure we can say that about Ellsbury just yet.

Which brings us to…

The Mays Hayes Argument

The center fielder for the Indians before Sizemore, and maybe even before Kenny Lofton, was Willie Mays Hayes. In his first season with the Tribe, Hayes was a punch-and-Judy type hitter. He was the ’90s version of Vince Coleman.

He would bunt for a hit, steal second and then steal third. He was an unstoppable force.

Unfortunately, all of Hayes’ accomplishments were lost when the Internet bubble burst in the early-2000s. However, if memory serves me correctly, Hayes stole around 100 bases in his rookie year and didn’t hit a home run.

Then, in his second season, when Hayes arrived to camp, he added more muscle and started launching homers. While Hayes was hitting the long ball more often, all his peripherals suffered.

I fear that Ellsbury maybe suffering the same fate.

While he is hitting the long ball more often, Ellsbury is striking out a ridiculous 27.9 percent of his at-bats. For a guy who has never K’d more than 14.4 percent of the time in any full season, this is alarming.

Ellsbury also was a guy who used to hit the ball on the ground, bunt for hits and like Hayes, cause havoc on the base paths. Now, he is hitting a career-low 37.5 percent ground-balls (down from almost 50 percent the previous seasons). It’s hard to cause havoc on the bases when you are hitting pop ups to right field.

Conclusion

Based on what I have seen so far, Ellsbury is turning into more of Hayes than Sizemore. He has developed a severe uppercut in his swing and appears to be looking to hit home runs.

That’s not his game. Perhaps he should take some advice from the late, great Lou Brown:

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @theghostofmlg

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The “Texas Red Sox Massacre” of this past weekend was not the opening series that Red Sox fans had dreamed about since December. Buchholz surrendered almost half as many home runs as he did all of last season, Lester made it clear that he knows which month this is and Lackey’s ERA is now sitting just north of 22. The bullpen wasn’t much better, as every reliever pitched and only Reyes, Albers, and Jenks failed to surrender a run. Still, serious concerns at this point are unnecessary- the team is bound to win at least a game before the season is out.

In all seriousness, though (opening series notwithstanding) the Red Sox look loaded. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make the lineup borderline ridiculous, and GM Theo Epstein also significantly improved on last season’s greatest weakness, the bullpen. But, as with any team, some questions linger. Here are five entities on whom the team is, to one degree or another, crossing its fingers.

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Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner: two outfielders with similar make-up, playing for the enemy and being drafted approximately 110 picks apart.

If Ellsbury is going off the board as the No. 18 OF, should Gardner really be the No. 44 OF off the board?

Let’s first examine their last full seasons:

• 2009 Ellsbury (Age 25) in 693 PAs: .301/94 R/8 HR/60 RBI/49 BB/70 SB (81 percent of the time from the leadoff position)
• 2010 Gardner (Age 26) in 569 PAs: .277/97 R/5 HR/47 RBI/79 BB/47 SB (20 percent of the time from the leadoff position—59 percent of the time from the eight or nine-hole)

If you want to extrapolate Gardner’s plate appearances for a finer comparison, have at it:

• Ellsbury: .301/94 R/8 HR/60 RBI/49 BB/70 SB
• Gardner: .277/118 R/6 HR/57 RBI/96 BB/57 SB

Wow—we’re pretty much looking at very similar players if they get equal plate appearances.

This argument holds even more water for 2011 since Ellsbury will most likely be batting in the lower half of the Red Sox lineup—much like Gardner—although the NY Daily News is reporting otherwise.

We’ll just have to wait and see, but let’s assume they will get equal plate appearances in 2011.

My 2011 Projections give the slight edge to Ellsbury, unless your league counts walks, in which case I would then rank them equally:

• Ellsbury .290/95/10/55/60
• Gardner .280/100/5/50/50

Why not pass on Ellsbury, wait eight or nine rounds later and take Brett Gardner who will give you similar stats at a fraction of the price?

That’s what I’m doing in drafts.

Red Sox fans—you might want to swallow some pride and follow suit. This is your fantasy baseball team we’re talking about!

Go ahead. I won’t tell.

Mike is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

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Terry Francona has been given a Ferrari and is expected to drive it into the winner’s circle. But to maximize the potential, he will need to take good care of it throughout the rigors of a 162-game schedule.

It would be hard to really screw up this lineup, as stacked as it is, but there are some changes that need to be made to make sure the team runs like a well-oiled machine. He’s got the pieces, now its time to put them in the right places.

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What makes a great leadoff hitter?

Getting on base at a high rate is a good start, but everyone in the lineup is expected to do that. A good eye always helps, but he shouldn’t be afraid to swing. Speed is a bonus, but some of the fastest players in baseball hit at the bottom of the batting order.

The truth is that there’s no formula for the perfect leadoff hitter. Every player approaches the game differently and every team has a different offensive style.

But, that doesn’t diminish the importance of the leadoff man.

These 30 hitters are their team’s respective table-setters, responsible for getting their club off to a good start and rallying their teammates to victory. They may not get the attention of the star slugger or the ace of the pitching staff, but a good leadoff hitter can be the difference between a postseason berth and an October date with the couch.

So here are my rankings of baseball’s top leadoff men and what to expect from them next season. As always, share your thoughts below. 

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One of the most exciting, positive “unknowns” about the 2011 Boston Red Sox is the combined impact Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury will have on the basepaths. 

Speculation has focused on the Sox’ newly improved hitting lineup and its strong pitching rotation, but, relatively little attention has been given to just how extraordinary it is for a team to have two of the game’s most prolific base stealers on the same side for nine innings.  

The Red Sox have never had a duo who can run this fast, and it’s rare for any team to have two of the game’s best baserunners.  Crawford and Ellsbury will have an obvious potential to increase the team’s run-scoring capacity, but perhaps their influence may go beyond that. 

It’s hard to measure the full impact of a base-stealing threat on opposing pitchers and the outcome of a game.  Yet, for one example, Red Sox fans grew painfully familiar with the undeniable impact Crawford’s speed had on many Sox-Rays games in recent years.  When he got on base, he distracted many Sox pitchers, contributed to many Rays’ rallies and was a “game-changer.”  (Remember when Crawford stole a record-tying six bases in one game last season!)

Sox fans have seen the benefit of Ellsbury routinely getting to second-base via a steal and scoring important runs.  Now pitchers will have to worry about both Crawford and Ellsbury on base at the same time.   

Sometimes people overrate base stealing.  I’ve heard Tony Massarotti on his Boston radio show with Michael Felger, “98.5—The Sports Hub” frequently comment that fans tend to exaggerate the significance of base-stealing.  Massarotti has commented that Ellsbury draws disproportionate attention for his steals, but he’s flawed in other areas such as on-base percentage. 

I agree with Massarotti to a large extent, but I think he overlooks one point:  Explosive baserunners like Ellsbury and Crawford can not only distract opposing pitchers but often throw them out of their rhythm and into a bad spurt on the mound.  

That factor can lead to a team scoring a run or two and result in a win.  There is sometimes an intangible, psychological effect that goes with having runners like Crawford or Ellsbury taking a huge lead off first base.  

Ellsbury and Crawford have both put up incredible stats for steals so far in their careers. In 2008, Ellsbury’s first season in the majors, he stole 50 bases.  In 2009, he stole 70 bases—tops in the American League.  He missed most of 2010 due to his rib injuries.  Crawford, the stolen-base champ for four seasons, has stolen 40 or more bases in seven of his eight seasons, and in five of those, he had more than 50 SB.  (Injuries limited his SB total to 25 in 2008.)  He stole 60 in 2009 and 47 last year.  

The last pair of terrific base stealers on the same team were Marquis Grissom and Delino DeShields of the Montreal Expos in 1991 and 1992, according to an article last month by ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes.  Grissom stole 76 in ’91 and 78 in ’92 while DeShields stole 56 in ’91 and 46 in ’92.  

Only once in the history of both the American League and National League have two teammates stolen 60 or more bases.   Crawford and Ellsbury may not equal that incredible combined total, but they might come close.   Their speed and presence on base could be a difference maker in whether the Red Sox go all the way in 2011.

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Over the next several weeks, I’ll be publishing a series of article on the Red Sox farm system, profiling a dozen or so top-tier prospects that have high potentials, and will likely help the club as the next wave of home-grown talent.

When Red Sox outfielders starting dropping like flies last spring and summer, the Boston management scoured their farm system for fresh legs and young arms in hopes of bridging the gap to Ellsbury‘s and Cameron‘s returns without settling for mere placeholders. Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava gave Red Sox nation memorable debuts with walk-off wins and first-pitch grand slams.

Though the offensive numbers for Boston outfielders failed to impress in 2010, the entertainment value and excitement these two brought to the team far exceeded expectations. But beyond any other call-up the team made in 2010, Triple-A stud Ryan Kalish sparked fire in Red Sox nation and recalled our memories of a similar, gritty rightfielder.

Kalish (22 years, 6’0″, 200 lbs.) started the 2010 campaign in Double-A Portland. He was quickly advanced to Pawtucket by June, and spent the better part of two months at Triple-A before his July 31 call-up. In his half of a season (293 AB) in the minors last year, Ryan compiled some impressive numbers. Between Portland and Pawtucket, Kalish produced an .884 OPS to go along with 47 RBI, and stole 25 bags in 28 attempts.

His BA/OBP/OPS line in the majors of .252/.305/.405 does not have American League pitchers quaking in their cleats at the thought of his arrival. He struck out too much, walked too little, and showed his rawness against better left-handed pitching.

But it should be noted that Kalish improved as the summer waned and September rolled around. More importantly, he dug in and came up clutch in scoring opportunities. His OPS with men on base was .893. With RISP, it was even better at .912.

Defensively, the line on Kalish heading into 2010 was plus range with an erratic arm of mediocre strength. This is one case where the scouting report probably didn’t do its homework, as Kalish showed slightly above-average arm strength and seldom missed cut-off men on extra base hits. As young as he is, there is probably still an opportunity to add arm strength like young pitchers often do.

With Drew‘s inevitable departure after 2011, the rightfield job would seem to be Kalish’s to lose. If there is a challenger to the opening, it may come from Josh Reddick. Josh has shown to be a tremendous athlete with considerable pop in his bat. But Reddick is a year older, and has not risen through the ranks with the offensive consistency needed to escape 4-A status.

On balance, I think the Red Sox will give the nod to Kalish, taking into account his impressive debut, complete skill set, and flair for the big stage.

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