Kuzul

Spring is almost here. Okay, not really. A good portion of the country is currently covered in snow. But it is just around the corner. And with spring comes the baseball fan’s favorite thing to hear after a long, cold, baseball-less winter: Pitchers and Catchers report.

The truck full of equipment pulled out of Boston on its way to Florida yesterday. It reads, “First Stop Fort Myers, Next Stop The Series.” With those expectations in mind, let’s look at the 2011 team’s chances of reaching that goal.

We’ll go by position numbers, which means we start with No. 1 at pitcher and add a “10” for the DH position.

1. Pitcher
   • Here’s how the rotation should look like come Opening Day:
     1. Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA, 225 Ks)
        • By far the Red Sox most consistent starter, he pitched 208 innings in 32 games in 2010, and was a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young. Barring injury, this success should continue and he is the absolute ace of this staff.
        • 2011 prediction: 23-6, 2.75 ERA, 250 Ks and the AL Cy Young 

        

     2. Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.33 ERA, 120 Ks)
        • Last season he continued the pattern of improvement he’s shown since he started getting serious playing time in the majors, look for that trend to continue in 2011.
        • 2011 prediction: 19-7, 2.33 ERA, 220 Ks
     3. Josh Beckett (6-6, 5.78 ERA, 116 Ks)
        • Beckett had a terrible year last year. He spent a good period of time on the DL and had an ERA over five for the second time in his career. Good news for Red Sox fans, the first time was in 2006 and Beckett turned in a 2007 that was arguably his best season ever.
        • 2011 Prediction: 19-8, 3.50 ERA, 215 Ks
     4. John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA, 156 Ks)
        • I’m going to chalk last season’s performance up to being in a hyper-competitive division for the first time in his career. He’s always hovered around 14 wins but the last time he lost 11 games, he went 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA the next season. If he manages another 14 wins next season and cuts the losses down a little, he’ll be the perfect fourth starter for the Red Sox.  
        • 2011 prediction: 16-7, 3.45 ERA, 240 Ks
     5. Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-6, 4.69 ERA, 133 Ks)
        • Dice-K really hasn’t had a good season since 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Every other year he’s been over four with his ERA. Good news is he’s the fifth starter, so the team isn’t leaning on him to win 15+ games this season. He has won an average of 44 percent of his games since joining the Red Sox, and if he can preform just above average and win half his games, no one would complain.
        • 2011 Prediction: 11-11, 4.40 ERA, 145 Ks
     6. Bullpen:
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       • Last season the bullpen was terrible. They finished the season with a 4.24 ERA, and a record of 19-23. Papelbon had an okay year, but not his normal dominance, and the core of relievers was disappointing in general. Look for veterans like Okajima, Ramon Ramirez to bounce back from dismal seasons, Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard to continue to grow, and the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler will help the ‘pen rebound.
       • 2011 Prediction: Papelbon returns to his more dominant form (though his 2010 season wasn’t as dismal as some of the other relievers) and the ‘pen will once again be serviceable (AKA, above .500)
2. Catcher
   • This year should be Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s year to shine. If he can stay healthy and get his bat going, he’ll be an excellent offensive catcher and under the tutelage of Jason Varitek, should be a whiz at handling the pitching staff. And if he doesn’t, Jason Varitek is more than just your average back-up catcher. I think Salty will really start to come into his own and his batting average will go above the Mendoza line.
   • Jason Varitek will start the season as the back-up catcher, but still the Captain. Don’t discount how important this is especially since there’s a new pitching coach this year. He may only bat .230 and he may not be able to throw anyone out at second, but he’s still important. Since Terry Francona took over the team in 2004, they have only missed the playoffs twice: 2006 and 2010. Both years Varitek spent time on the DL. And he’s caught a league record 4 no-hitters. Dice-K’s almost no-hitter last year against the Phillies? Victor Martinez played first base and Jason Varitek was behind the plate. That is not a coincidence.
3. First
   • Adrian Gonzalez is the prize the Red Sox have been trying to get for years. They had to give up a few prospects to get him, but the farm is deep, and the Red Sox are hoping their initial investment will pay off huge. And it should. Adrian Gonzales has been a fantastic hitter, averaging 32 homers and 100 RBIs since joining the Padres in 2006. Imagine what this guy could do in Fenway park, which has ranked 7th since 2006 in runs per game as opposed to Petco Park, which ranked 29th in the same period.
   • And if Adrian gets a day off, it’s not a big deal to shift Kevin Youkilis back over to first and stick Jed Lowrie at third.
   • 2011 Prediction: Adrian will be Going-Going-Gonzo! Look for an increase in home runs and RBIs around May/June. It will take him a few weeks to really get adjusted to playing in the AL East. Projected stats: 40 HR, 135 RBI, .348 batting average.
4. Second
   • Second base was an issue in 2010 because Dustin Pedroia was hurt. He’s the little spark plug of the Red Sox, the angry, hyper-competitive, boastful little team leader. He gives 100 percent every game, no matter what. And as long as he can bounce back from foot surgery in 2011, there’s no reason to think he’ll be anything other than the person he was before a bizarre foul ball broke his foot. He’s going to do anything he can to help his team win. Remember last year, him taking grounders on his knees? I think Pedroia is in for a great season. And if he starts off slow, Jed Lowrie can always back him up.
   • 2011 Prediction: another All-Star season, starting off slow but finishing with .320 batting average, 20 HR, 65 RBIs and plenty of runs scored.
5. Third
   • Kevin Youkilis left the Red Sox in August with a bizarre hand injury. He was healed by October, but the Sox were done by then, so I don’t think his injury is going to play a big part in 2011. I think we are really going to see Youkilis’ power come out in 2011. And we already know he’s fantastic at third, and if he needs a day off, Jed Lowrie can step in (do we see a running theme here? Lowrie is going to be busy even if he’s not starting).
   • 2011 Prediction: 30 HR, .308 batting average, and 95 RBI.
6. Short
   • Shortstop is the only position this season where there’s really any controversy. Marco Scutaro is coming into camp as the Red Sox shortstop and barring injuries or a truly dismal Spring Training, he should remain there. But he’s got Jed Lowrie riding his tail, because if he can’t do it, Jed can, and then Scutaro will be the back-up for when any of the rest of the infield needs a day off. Not a bad problem to have, really.
   • 2011 Prediction: Marco Scutaro, recovered from the nagging injuries of 2010, will hit .285 with 15 homers and 60 RBIs.
7. Left
   • 2011 starts with another new face in left field, and it’s a much safer place now that Adrian Beltre isn’t at third to break any more left fielder’s ribs. Carl Crawford is certainly an upgrade from the Hermida-Nava-Reddick-whoever-is-healthy 2010 version of left field. Between him in left and Jacoby Ellsbury in center, the Red Sox might get to 100 stolen bases in 2011, isn’t that a wild idea? Plus we don’t have to worry about trying to pick him off, a huge relief for the catchers. Crawford will also enjoy being supported by the Fenway Faithful instead of booed, and join the legendary ranks of Red Sox left fielders. It’s not everyday you get to stand in the same spot as Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, and Jim Rice, and play their same position.
   • 2011 Prediction: 15 HR, 90 RBI, 55 stolen bases, and hits .302.
8. Center
   • Jacoby Ellsbury returns to the field after a very disappointing 2010 season where he played only 18 games. His backup was also hurt and played in only 48 games. Hopefully both Jacoby Ellsbury and backup outfielder Mike Cameron will be back 100 percent in 2011. If they are, Ellsbury should continue to develop as a hitter, maybe even hit for power, and Cameron will continue to be the steady, quality backup the Red Sox need for the long season. Ellsbury is young so rebounding from his rib injury shouldn’t be a problem, and he should be back to stealing bases in April.
   • 2011 Prediction: hits .307 with 15 HR and 50 RBI with 75 stolen bases
9. Right
   • Old Faithful J.D. Drew maintains his spot in right field. J.D. is always good for a few bouts of vertigo, a hammy, and a back injury during the season but he is also one of the best right fielders fielding percentage wise in the league and when he gets hot his bat is a beast. This might also be his last season, and I think Drew is one of those guys who will want to go out with a ring and a bang. And there’s a slew of minor league guys and Mike Cameron to take care of the times Drew is hurt or needs rest.
   • 2011 prediction: .250-.285 (depending on how many hot streaks he has and how long they last), 27 HR, 65 RBI. Nice, solid season.
10. DH
    • When the Red Sox signed Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, Big Papi was celebrating. For the last two years the offense has been on his shoulders, and when he struggled in April it was all anyone seemed to talk about. Now the talk will be on the new players, especially since Papi will likely be batting 5th or 6th, all the pressure will be off. I love Papi and I think he has another two or three decent years left in him and without the pressure his bat should be fierce.
    • 2011 Prediction: Papi will hit .289 with 35 HR and 116 RBI.

I look for the 2011 batting order to shape out like this:

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew, Saltalamacchia, Scutaro.

As for the Red Sox lofty World Series goals? They are extremely viable. Two of the scarier pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee and Doc Halladay, are with the Phillies in the National League.

Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia is recovering from knee surgery and lost 30 pounds over the offseason, that will certainly help his knees but changing your body that much is going to affect your pitching. Pettitte retired, and their rotation after Sabathia isn’t exactly frightening. Plus, the Yankees are getting a little older.

They are still a good lineup but age will eventually start to catch up with them. New York will definitely be competition, but if the Boston lineup holds up and the pitching staff rebounds a little, the Red Sox can take them.

The Rays are another matter. They are reloading this year, dumping most of their expensive players in trades or with free-agency, but it would be foolish to overlook them. Joe Madden has a talent for getting quite a bit out of young, inexperienced players. I look for the Rays, Jays and Orioles to put up more of a fight this year than most people think.

I am superstitious and don’t like to make predictions of the World Series in February, so I’m just going to end by saying the Red Sox have a good chance of getting there and winning. They have the talent, the rotation, and Epstein has plugged some of the holes in the bullpen to keep them from losing games late. It’s certainly not a pipe dream, and with a little bit of luck, it could be a reality.

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This article will rank the teams based on how much speed each team possesses beginning with the slowest team.  I will take a look at last years overall team ranking in terms of the stolen base and compare it to how I believe they will rank this year.  I will also take a look at who lead the team last year in stolen bases and look at the other base stealers on the team as well.  

Then, I will predict who will lead their respective teams in stolen bases and will also identify the other players who can potentially contribute in terms of speed, in 2011.

So, without further ado, let us start!

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Picture this scene; it’s late July, and the Mets are sitting in last place with no hope of reversing their fortunes.  In other words, it’s become yet another lost summer in Queens.

Fortunately for the Mets, patrolling Center Field is a healthy and all-star caliber slugger named Carlos Beltran.  His hefty salary has become an albatross to the Mets’ payroll, and Sandy Alderson is actively shopping him, gauging the interest level of current playoff contenders.

Who offers the best package?  What exactly would the Mets seek in return for Beltran?

Here are five possible trade scenarios that will benefit contending teams in the short term, as well as the Mets and their commitment to the future.  

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Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has once again kept his record intact—he has never gone to an arbitration hearing with one of his players during his tenure as general manager of the Red Sox.

This afternoon, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with their center fielder and closer, coming to terms with Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon on one-year deals that will keep the parties out of pending arbitration hearings.

The deal with Ellsbury was the first to be announced earlier today, followed a short time later by confirmation of the agreement with Pappy. Ellsbury, who earned just under one-half of a million dollars last year, will earn $2.4 million (the deal also contains incentives that will pay him an additional $50,000 for each of 600 and 700 plate appearances). Papelbon, who made $9.35 million last year, will earn $12 million.

This was Ellsbury’s first year of arbitration eligibility. It wasn’t necessarily the best time for him to head into arbitration, as he missed the majority of last year due to a succession of rib injuries.

It was Papelbon’s third shot at arbitration; but, as with Ellsbury, it wasn’t the best time for him to get in front of an arbitrator, as he had his worst season last year (he went 5-7, with 37 saves and a 3.90 ERA… but he also blew a career-high eight saves).

Pappy has settled his dispute in each of the three instances he has headed into the arbitration process, but he has previously made it abundantly clear that he intends to go through free agency next winter.

He has frequently said he wants to establish a record for highest contract ever given a reliever in free agency. Of course, that was before he blew Game 3 of the ’09 ALCS and then followed that up with the worst season of his career.

Today’s Papelbon deal didn’t set any records, but it came close – it’s the fourth-highest one-year deal in history for an arbitration-eligible player. The record also came today – a $15.5 million deal for Prince Fielder. It is followed by a $12.5 million signed by Mark Teixeira (2008, with Atlanta) and a $12.4 million deal agreed to by Carlos Zambrano (2007, with the Cubs).

Kudos to Theo for getting these deals done. As a professional negotiator, I can attest to the fact that arbitration is an undesirable and confrontational process that pits an employer against the employee under the worst of circumstances.

The system places the employer in the uncomfortable position of having to diminish the employee’s performance and accomplishments in order to convince the arbitrator to award the lowest salary under consideration. It is a system that NEEDS TO BE revised.

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Jon Lester is a name known throughout Major League Baseball as much for his battle with cancer as his pitching ability.

Lester had solid 2008 and 2009 seasons for the Red Sox before a serious coming out party in 2010. With a 19-9 record and a 3.25 ERA, Lester attended his first All Star Game and finished fourth in Cy Young voting.

All signs point to Lester, 27, continuing to improve in 2011. With a revamped roster and loftier expectations he is due for a stellar season.

Here are ten reasons that Jon Lester will add some hardware to his name as the 2011 American League Cy Young Award Winner.

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Since the Boston Red Sox recent free agent signing of outfielder Carl Crawford, all I’ve been reading is people saying that the Sox now have a surplus of outfielders and guys like Jacoby Ellsbury are now “prime trade bait”.

With that in mind, lets take a look at the current outfield situation and what it may look like for 2012 as well.

If the season were to open today the Red Sox outfield would be Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D Drew with Mike Cameron as their fourth outfielder and right-handed bat off the bench. 

Ryan Kalish would be sent back to the minors for more seasoning and a possible call up later in the year if or when injuries occur (in Drew’s case, it’s when). Also, send down guys like Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald and Josh Reddick. Some aren’t ready and some just aren’t Major League caliber.

Sure looks like a lot of options doesn’t it?  Now let’s look at the opening day outfield in 2012. Of course, this would be excluding any additional moves.

J.D. Drew’s contract will have ended and they certainly won’t be asking him back as that was one of the worst signings of the Epstein era and fans have been dying to get that one off the books.

Mike Cameron’s contract will have ended.  2011 is the final year of the two-year $15.5 million deal he signed in 2009.  He’ll be 39 by then and the Sox will have no interest in signing a 39-year-old center fielder.

Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava are simply career Minor Leaguers who were brought up last season due to the fact that Boston sustained so many injuries in the outfield.

I do believe that in 2012 Ryan Kalish will be ready to take J.D. Drew’s vacated spot and be the everyday right fielder.  So the outfield would look like this: Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish.  with a possible fourth outfielder of Josh Reddick, McDonald or Nava.

Does Ellsbury still look like trade bait?

Would you want to go into 2012 with Carl Crawford being the only starting outfielder with a significant amount of Major League playing time?  Maybe if you were the Padres, but not the Red Sox and not in this division.  Not if you want to make the playoffs.

Aside from all that, wouldn’t it be great to watch a few years of Ellsbury and Crawford together?  Two exciting players with dynamic game changing speed.  Speed makes things happen.  It forces the opponent to make quicker decisions which often leads to more mistakes.

If you want to trade an outfielder then trade Mike Cameron.  He’s in the final year of his deal and will make $7.25 million this year.  The Sox could eat a couple of million of that and ask for a solid reliever in return.  I think they’d have a lot of takers.

I’d rather they keep the younger, cheaper and more dynamic, Jacoby Ellsbury.

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The big news today is that the Boston Red Sox massively overpaid for former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder, speed demon Carl Crawford. $126 million over 7 years. Whether or not you think that Crawford is worth that kind of money, one thing’s for sure: The Red Sox are likely out of the running for Washington Nationals outfielder Josh Willingham, who once again is rumored to be on the trading block.

However, the Red Sox now have an incredibly crowded outfield. Crawford will likely be in left, JD Drew (consistently my least favorite player on the Red Sox), Jacoby Ellsbury in center, and either Mike Cameron or Ryan Kalish on the bench. Likely Cameron, as Kalish can stay down in Pawtucket for another season.

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Petco Park will no longer restrain Adrian Gonzalez from becoming a fantasy monster.

You can just picture him ripping the chains away from Petco Park in a surge of glory. He is free at last.

It has long been the hope of those who owned Gonzalez in a keeper league for him to be dealt to another team. Almost any team. Even in non-keeper leagues, people have been waiting for him to be dealt just to see how he will produce.

Despite the fact that his home park has held him back, Gonzalez has still managed to produce Top 30 numbers.

It’s not just Petco, either. He has been the centerpiece of a very weak lineup since arriving in San Diego. Because of this, Gonzalez rarely saw anything worthy of hitting and he was often pitched around.

Opposing managers won’t have the same luxury of pitching around him in a loaded Red Sox lineup. He could very well be in for a career year.

In 2009, Gonzalez finished the year with 40 homeruns and a .277 batting average. He hit twenty-eight of his 40 homeruns on the road. His batting average away from Petco was .306 and he finished the season with more walks (119) than strikeouts (109).

The splits between home and away tell the story.

So how much better can a career .284 hitter get?

It’s easy to get carried away making gaudy projections for a guy like Gonzalez.

Gonzalez will play pepper with the Green Monster and rack up doubles. The short porch in right field (302″ down the line) is a slugging left hander’s dream and it could increase his homerun totals. He’s not a dead pull hitter, but 22% of balls in play to the outfield go to right field, according to Inside Edge.

He was already an RBI machine in San Diego, averaging 104.8 RBI the past four seasons in a mediocre lineup. His RBI totals could approach the 140-150 range with the Red Sox.

We’re talking about a potential MVP candidate for 2011. Gonzalez flies under the radar in San Diego, but his keen batting eye and mighty bat should almost certainly make him worthy of a first round selection.

How high do you draft him?

Last season, Gonzalez had an average draft position of 29.1 in ESPN leagues. That placed him as a late second-early third round choice at first base.

Notable first basemen who were selected ahead of him were Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder. Gonzalez was the sixth first baseman off the draft board in an average draft.

I rate Gonzalez as the third best 1st baseman now—even ahead of Joey Votto. It’s close, though.

I would have no problems drafting Gonzalez late first-early second, even with first base being a deep position. He’s going to produce—there’s no question about that.

What Does This Mean for the Rest of the Red Sox Lineup?

The Red Sox lineup was already quite beneficial to the fantasy game, but it has quickly turned into a gold mine with the recent signing of Carl Crawford. 

It remains to be seen if the Red Sox will keep Jacoby Ellsbury around, but Crawford will certainly hit near the top of the lineup and score a ton of runs.

Dustin Pedroia will also reap the benefits of hitting at the top of the lineup as well. He has yet to top a .300 average since his first two full seasons in the majors, but I can certainly see him going over .300 in this lineup—so long as he stays healthy.

I think the biggest beneficiary of the Gonzalez trade will be Kevin Youkilis. He will gain third base eligibility early in the season and that will give him a spike in value. He’ll be a nice option to consider on draft day, especially given the possibility of a discount due to his injury shortened 2009 season. What’s not to like about .300-25-95-90 from a third baseman?

The 2011 Boston Red Sox lineup will be a fearsome foe, of which I daresay cannot be matched.

2011 Forecast for Adrian Gonzalez: .310 / 40 HR / 125 RBI / 100 R

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment box below. You can e-mail me suggestions or questions at jtmcadams@aol.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoeSportswriter.

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The Red Sox have Adrian Gonzalez wrapped up in a nice little package, ready to play. The good thing for the Red Sox is they now can focus on the other cogs in the machine that is the Red Sox. This clears the air for many issues which people have been debating, but there is no question now that the Red Sox have a dangerous batting team. Depending on what they choose, you could see Boston have a powerhouse team, or a sickening combination of speed and power. Regardless, getting Gonzalez to 1st gives the Red Sox great defense at the corners. Here’s some things the Red Sox should be up to after this deal is inked.

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The off-season free agency frenzy has already begun, and so far we’ve seen only a handful of players switch teams. Dan Uggla was dealt to the Braves, Javier Vazquez returned to the NL, and Victor Martinez joined fellow countryman Miguel Cabrera in Detroit.

While unsigned free agents Cliff Lee, Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford will make great impacts for their new teams, we can’t forget that there is more than one way to improve your team.

Here we take a look at eight trades that should happen this off-season for a variety of reasons. Whether it be due to salary concerns or an attempt to re-build with young players, some big names could be dealt this winter. Here are eight transactions that are both realistic and beneficial.

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