Kuzul

Entering his final year of salary arbitration, Jonathan Papelbon will likely cash in on a big pay day following the 2011 season. 

However, with a declining skill set and Daniel Bard as the closer of the future, there is next to no chance he signs a long term deal with the Boston Red Sox.

Papelbon is due to make roughly $11 million for the coming season.

The presence of Bard and the acquisition of Bobby Jenks makes the possibility that Papelbon does not finish the year with the Red Sox all the more likely.

Without further delay here are 10 Jonathan Papelbon trades that make sense for the Boston Red Sox.

Begin Slideshow

Rumors rumors everywhere.  Where will Cliff Lee land?  The Yankees, duh.

It seems every off season that pitching is the biggest issue for those teams looking to make a big splash in free agency.

The Atlanta Braves are looking at a 2011 season that very much like 2010 will include much depth at starting pitching.  Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Jorge de la Rosa, Javier Vazquez, and Chris Young are just a few names that come quite popular upon the signing of Cliff Lee if and when Brian Cashman signs him to come to the Bronx.

The biggest need of the offseason was fulfilled with the trade for Dan Uggla on November 16, 2010.  His right-handed power will bring a much needed boost to the Atlanta Braves offense.

It is safe to say, I don’t see the Braves shopping for any above average starting pitching this offseason.  If anything, the Braves could consider adding a veteran arm to their bullpen.

Let’s take a quick peek at what the Braves have to look forward to in 2011 when it comes to starting pitching.

1.) Tim Hudson (Prediction: 210 IP, 18-9, 2.95 ERA, 135 Ks)

What can you say about Tim Hudson in 2010?  17-9 with an ERA of 2.83.  He does walk a batter from time to time but he held hitters to a .229 BAA last season.

What was the most significant part of 2010 for “Huddy”?  228.2 IP.  Not bad for a guy that just came back from major surgery the season before.  You could certainly make a case that Tim Hudson is as good as ever right now and that his only season better than 2010 was when he pitched for the A’s back in 2003.  He may very well be in the Cy Young race yet again in 2011.

2.) Tommy Hanson (Prediction: 215 IP, 15-10, 3.10 ERA, 200 Ks)

2011 will very much be a breakout season for the young Tommy Hanson.  Next season Tommy Hanson will be listed first and Hudson second.

Hanson has a knack for getting in trouble and blowing up, but he has also pitched his way out of trouble several times.  This is typical for a young star.  I don’t think he will compete for the Cy Young just yet in 2011, but in 2012 he will be running the show against the big boys.

2010 showed that Hanson has good control when he is on his game.  His K to BB ratio was right around 3:1.  With a little more run support, I think Hanson would have been able to log a few more innings this season and get very close to 200 Ks.

3.) Derek Lowe (Prediction: 190 IP, 15-12, 4.10 ERA, 125 Ks)

If Derek had only been as dominant all years as he was in the month of September he would have been an easy pick for the Cy Young.  In the final month of the season Lowe went 5-0 with a 1.17 ERA.  With a little run support in the playoffs, Lowe could have pitched the Braves to a NLCS if he had just had a little more run support from an injury plagued lineup.

I think Lowe has reached his peak, but feel he will give the Braves one more good season.  His 2010 numbers aren’t out of reach, but I’ll suggest he will be slightly above average and more consistent this season.

4.) Jair Jurrjens (Prediction: 185 IP, 14-10, 3.80 ERA, 140 Ks)

If I were a betting man (which I’m not) I would suggest J.J. will be more similar to his 2008 and 2009 self in 2011.  Between his injuries (June through August) JJ carried a 6-1 record with a 3.75 ERA in 12 starts.  By September, Jurrjens was already beginning to feel the effects of his injuries.  I feel like this section of the season more clearly portrays what a healthy Jair Jurrjens will pitch like in 2011.  One day, Jair will be one of the most recognized pitchers in the league alongside Tommy Hanson.

5.) Mike Minor (Prediction: 165 IP, 9-13, 4.80 ERA, 155 Ks)

Mike Minor will be the man until Kris Medlen comes back from injury.  If Minor pitches well enough, Medlen upon his return could be used as a valuable bullpen arm in August or September of 2011.  Brandon Beachy may give Minor a run for his money in spring training, but the former Vanderbilt stand-out was drafted to be a Braves pitcher for several years to come.  My prediction will be based on a full season.  This is subject to change depending on what Fredi Gonzalez does with Medlen when he returns.

Aside from the five starters above, others will likely see some time in the rotation with a spot-start here and there.  Brandon Beachy as mentioned will give Minor some competition but will likely be used as a long reliever or a spot starter.  If he isn’t traded, Kenshin Kawakami may see some time on the big club if he can regain some form at AA early in the season.

What I believe most fans hope for is a late season return by Kris Medlen.  Medlen was a great benefit to the team last season and would be an excellent late season addition to what is expected to be a competitive Braves squad in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

2010 was a moderate success for the Atlanta Braves. However, with retirement, free agency and trades, there’s always the question of who will or will not be back playing for Atlanta in 2011.

We’ll take a look at free agents, potential retirees and trade bait.

We expect that core players like Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, Jason Heyward and Chipper Jones will be back because there’s no logical reason why they wouldn’t be.

The bullpen was very solid, but it’s not out of the question to see one or more of them packaged in a deal for an outfielder. This means that Craig Kimbrel, Mike Dunn, Jonny Venters, Peter Moylan and Eric O’Flaherty should expect to be back. 

Backup catcher David Ross signed an extension mid-season for a reason.

Up-and-comers like Kris Medlen (after he returns from Tommy John surgery), Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Freddie Freeman may or may not spend the entire 2011 season in the majors with Atlanta, but if not they’ll be between the big club and Gwinnett, unless packaged in a deal for another outfield bat.

So, who does that leave. . .

Begin Slideshow

It’s time to look at the potential two-start options for the upcoming fantasy week. If I have someone rated as a three, four, or five-star option, they are someone I would definitely use.

A two-star option is someone who is borderline, but I’d strongly lean against it unless I have no other options. The one-star options are an absolutely non-scenario.

So, with that said, let’s take a look at the players available to you this week:

Five-Star Options:

• None

Four-Star Options:

• Matt Cain—San Francisco Giants @ CHC, @ Col
• Chris Carpenter—St. Louis Cardinals @ Fla, @ CHC
• Zack Greinke—Kansas City Royals @ Det, @ Cle
• Cole Hamels—Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atl, vs. NYM
• Jered Weaver—Los Angeles Angels vs. Tex, vs. CWS

Three-Star Options:

• Chad Billingsley—Los Angeles Dodgers vs. SD, @ Ari
• Trevor Cahill—Oakland Athletics vs. CWS, vs. Tex
• Fausto Carmona—Cleveland Indians  @ Min, vs. KC
• Jorge De La Rosa—Colorado Rockies  @ Ari, vs. SF
• Brian Duensing—Minnesota Twins vs. Cle, @ Det
• Gavin Floyd—Chicago White Sox @ Oak, @ LAA
• Matt Garza—Tampa Bay Rays @ NYY, vs. Sea
• Gio Gonzalez—Oakland Athletics vs. CWS, vs. Tex
• J.A. Happ—Houston Astros @ Was, @ Pit
• Phil Hughes—New York Yankees vs. TB, vs. Bos
• Jair Jurrjens—Atlanta Braves @ Phi, @ Was
• Colby Lewis—Texas Rangers @ LAA, @ Oak
• Bud Norris—Houston Astros @ Was, @ Pit
• James Shields—Tampa Bay Rays @ NYY, vs. Sea

Two-Star Options:

• Homer Bailey—Cincinnati Reds @ Mil, @ SD
• Livan Hernandez—Washington Nationals vs. Hou, vs. Atl
• Derek Holland—Texas Rangers @ LAA, @ Oak
• Daisuke Matsuzaka—Boston Red Sox vs. Bal, @ NYY
• Mike Pelfrey—New York Mets @ Fla, @ Phi
• Clayton Richard—San Diego Padres @ LAD, vs. Cin
• Jake Westbrook—St. Louis Cardinals @ Pit, @ CHC

One-Star Options:

• Chris Capuano—Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cin, vs. Fla
• Bruce Chen—Kansas City Royals @ Det, @ Cle
• Luke French—Seattle Mariners @ Tor, @ TB
• Jeanmar Gomez—Cleveland Indians @ Min, vs. KC
• John Lannan—Washington Nationals vs. Hou, vs. Atl
• Paul Maholm—Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Stl, vs. Hou
• Adalberto Mendez—Florida Marlins vs. NYM, @ Mil
• Ivan Nova—New York Yankees vs. TB, vs. Bos
• Rick Porcello—Detroit Tigers vs. KC, vs. Min
• Joe Saunders—Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Col, vs. LAD
• Chris Volstad—Florida Marlins vs. Stl, @ Mil
• Randy Wells—Chicago Cubs vs. SF, vs. Stl

Scheduling Notes:

• The Brewers may go with a six-man rotation this week, leaving either Chris Capuano or Dave Bush without a second start. When you are picking between those two, does it really matter?  Neither should be trusted with your fantasy season on the line.
• Right now Phil Hughes is penciled in as a two-start option, but there certainly is the chance that the Yankees toy with their rotation in an effort to prepare for the playoffs. He’s usable either way, but just keep that in mind.
• Could Gio Gonzalez be tiring down the stretch?  One bad start shouldn’t completely deter you (seven ER over two IP), but he did throw only 159.0 innings in 2009. It’s certainly a possibility, and there also is a chance that the A’s opt to push him back given the increase in work (he’s already at 181.2 innings).

Thoughts:

• Fausto Carmona has been pitching exceptionally well of late. While he is just 1-3 over his last 37.1 innings, he’s done that with a 2.41 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 30 K. The start against the Twins may be worrisome, but the way he’s going right now he can certainly be used.
• Brian Duensing’s control is his greatest asset, by far. In his 10 starts this season, only twice has he walked more than one batter (and one of those was two walks). That’s extremely impressive and certainly helps to justify his success (2.25 ERA as a starter).

• He’s been impressive against both the Indians (2.61 ERA over 10.1 innings) and Tigers (0.69 ERA over 13.0 innings).

• I would only use Homer Bailey this week if you were in desperate need of a two-start option. He’s just never proved to be trustworthy, and is coming off a start where he gave up three earned runs over three innings to the Arizona Diamondbacks. I’d consider him nothing more then a low-end two-star option.
• Jorge De La Rosa is becoming a very good second-half pitcher, isn’t he?  After going 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA in the second half in 2009, he’s gone 5-3 with a 4.00 ERA this year. I know those numbers aren’t too impressive, but they are solid nonetheless. With two favorable match-ups and the Rockies pushing for the playoffs, I’d look for him to excel.
• Both Bud Norris and J.A. Happ have nice looking match-ups this week, taking on the Nationals and Pirates. That’s about all you can ask for, isn’t it?
• While Happ is coming off a bad start (five ER over 4.1 IP), he hadn’t allowed more then three earned runs in a start in his prior seven starts.  Norris, meanwhile, has a ton of strikeout potential against the teams who are sixth (Pirates) and 10th (Nationals) in the league in strikeouts. Roll the dice on both of them.
• Mike Pelfrey has had his ups and downs in 2010, but pitching on the road he is 5-6 with a 5.30 ERA this year. He’s tough to trust with two road starts.
• Clayton Richard has struggled on the road (4.85 ERA) and has a tough match-up with the Reds. It’s hard to consider him a must-use option.

What are your thoughts?  Who have I ranked too high?  Who do you think will out-preform my rankings?

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Baseball Minor League Player of the Year Awards:

• Atlanta Braves
• Kansas City Royals

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Over the season, I’ve had to hear the media lament over key injuries. Surprisingly, when the unlucky injury-bugged teams are mentioned, the Atlanta Braves are normally overlooked.

For most baseball fans, they would look at you as if you were crazy if you mentioned that Braves have battled through several key injuries.  The Braves are believed to be lucky when it comes to the injury bug, with the exception of Chipper Jones.

I can’t blame them, since little has been mentioned about the Braves’ injuries. So far, they’ve lost Chipper Jones and Kris Medlen to season-ending injuries.  Jair Jurrjens, Eric O’Flaherty, and Matt Diaz have spent over a combined five months on the DL.  Those are pretty big losses for a team that relies heavily on pitching and situational hitting. 

Don’t forget that the Braves have lost production from players playing through injuries as well.  Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus are the best examples in this regard.  Key support players, such as David Ross and Takahashi Saito, have had to take time to heal as well.

This loss of quality pitching and offensive production is a pretty big challenge for any team. How well a team deals with these challenges is normally what separates great teams from good teams.

The 2010 Braves have faced these types of challenges better than anyone else in the NL.  That’s why they’ve been sitting in first place for the past two-and-a-half months.  It’s also why I feel we’ve yet to see the Atlanta Braves play their best baseball. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In case you haven’t noticed, the Atlanta Braves are beating people senseless at Turner Field. The Braves’ 42-16 record at home is the best in the majors and Atlanta shows no signs of slowing down.

The main reasons for the Braves’ home success is their pitching. The Braves rank third in the National League in home ERA with a 2.99 mark. The one starter who has really stood out at home is Jair Jurrjens.

With his stellar performance on on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Jurrjens is now 5-0 with a 1.81 ERA at home. If you compare that to his 0-4 with a 6.39 ERA on the road, you can see that Jurrjens likes the home cooking in Atlanta.

However, if you look deeper into Jurrjens’ home and road splits, his peripherals are pretty equal. Here is how Jurrjens’ home and road splits shape up:

Home: 7 starts, 1.21 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, .233 avg

Away: 7 starts, 1.26 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, .251 avg

As you can see, not much separates Jurrjens from on the road from at home. So why has he given up just nine earned runs at home and 27 on the road? It has to do with Jurrjens remarkable strand rate home.

At home, Jurrjens is stranding a ridiculous 89 percent of the runners on base. On the road, Jurrjens is stranding only 46.9 percent runners on base. That is a huge split.

Essentially, Jurrjens is putting on the same amount of runners at home as on the road, but on the road he is not making the key pitches when it counts. The average pitcher strands around 73 percent of the runners on base, so one has to figure this will even out over the next month and a half.

While Jurrjens should continue to win games at home because he plays on a good team and he is a solid pitcher, expect his ERA to start rising at home. There is no way he can keep up this strand rate.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The season is long and right now it’s coming down to the wire for the top owners in their respective leagues.  These few players that are poised for either a huge week or a week you will want to avoid.  Pay attention, this could mean winning or not winning your league.

Start ‘Em:

Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | 2.1% :  Take a walk on the wild side with this streaking player.  In his last 15 games Hall has crushed 4HRs with an OPS of .979.  In the next week he’ll be playing at both Yankee Stadium (Number one HR factor field) and the Ballpark in Arlington (Number two HR factor field), two of the best places to hit for power.

Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | 52.5% :  Chris Johnson has been hotter than the sun over the last two weeks.  While he probably wont be able to maintain these astounding numbers, he will most likely be able to post large numbers for the upcoming week.  Five of the six starters that Johnson will face are right handers.  Hitting righties is Johnson’s strength: .364 avg. 1.000 OPS in 107 ABs.  He also has 4HRs and 20RBIs against righties as well.

Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | 7.8% :  Since his call-up, Jay has been a pure hitter.  He’s been raking ever since and has yet to stop.  In his 32 ABs this year against the Reds and Cubs Jay is hitting .406 with an OBP of .441.  Unfortunately, Jay is mainly a three-trick pony depending on how many categories your league has.  He can typically be expected to help in average, on-base, and runs.

Sit ‘Em:

Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | 76% :  Bruce’s upcoming stretch against the Cardinals is going to be brutal for his owners.  Bruce’s career numbers against the Cardinals are: .199 avg, .259 OBP.  Not to mention he is currently on a long cold streak, hitting .188 over the last 30 games.

Jack Cust | Oakland A’s | 10% :  Jack Cust and the rest of the Oakland A’s have the worst schedule for power this upcoming week.  They will be playing at Safeco and Target Field next week.  These two fields are the third-worst and worst fields for homeruns.  Cust has also slowed down as of late, hitting .222 over the course of the last seven games.

Two-Start Pitchers To Use:

Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 86% :  Scherzer has been fairly dominant as of late.  Fantasy players should look for him to continue this dominance through his upcoming two-start week.  His first start comes against the Rays at home.  Scherzer is 6-2 at home this season and has a 2.90 ERA since the All-Star game.  Further supporting his start, the Rays are hitting .091 (2 for 22) against him for their career.  Scherzer has pitched against the White Sox twice this year with fairly strong numbers.  In the 14 innings against them Scherzer has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of nine.

Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 86.8% :  Santana has been on a skid as of late but he should be able to correct this with his upcoming two starts.  His first opponent is Kansas City then Toronto, both starts coming at home.  In a combined 33.1 innings this year against both teams Santana has 2.47 ERA and a 3-1 Win-Loss record.  In over 250 ABs, the players of both teams have a combined career batting average against Santana of .255.

Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid:

Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 77% :  Jurrjens has pitched with mixed success since coming back from the DL this season.  Now is not the time to take a chance on the two-start opportunity he faces this upcoming week.  His career against the Dodgers goes to the tune of a 4.03ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .284 BAA.  Meanwhile, the heart of the Dodger’s order (Ethier, Kemp, Loney) have a collective career .360 avg. against Jurrjens.  Jurrjens has faced the Astros a limited amount and has not done much better.  His ever descending GB/FB rate should put his start in the Band Box of Minute Maid Park.

Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 40% :  Jackson’s two-start week is bound for disaster.  His first start is against Baltimore, at Baltimore.  Normally Baltimore is not much of a threat, but in three starts at Camden Yards Jackson has a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  His next start against his old team the Tigers at his new home at U.S. Cellular Field.  At U.S. Cellular Field Jackson has a career 4.88 ERA 1.63 WHIP, and players are hitting .301 against him.  Fantasy owners have to also take into account that U.S. Cellular Field is the second-most homerun friendly park in existance.

Hind Sight:

For curiosity sake, here is how last week’s predictions held up through games as of 8-6:

Start ‘Em:

Jorge Cantu: One for four.  Played in only one game.

Josh Willingham: .357 avg. .438 OBP, 0R 0HR 1RBI.  The hitting is great, but there is more to fantasy than two categories.

Rajai Davis: .200 avg. .273 OBP, 3R 1HR 2RBI

Sit ‘Em:

David Wright: .063 avg. 1 for 16 as of print time.  Gotta pat myself on the back for this call.

Matt Kemp: .400 avg. .471 .OBP, 2R 1HR 3RBI.  His 5-5 game inflates last week’s line

Carl Crawford: .125 avg. .222 OBP, 2R 0HR 2RBI.  The Runs and RBI are decent, but Crawford should be held to higher standards.

Pitchers:

Travis Wood: 7IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K

Mat Latos: 6IP 4H 2ER 2BB 6K

All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com

Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce.  James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports.

Got a two-start pitching candidate for week 19?  
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix

____________________________________________________

Here are some more articles that will bring you success…

Fantasy Baseball 

The Numbers Game: Forecasting Week 18 in Fantasy Baseball  
Fantasy Baseball’s Top 50 Pitchers Post All-Star Break   
MLB Fantasy Baseball Second Half Ranks: Third Base

MLB Fantasy Baseball Post ASB Positional Ranks: Catcher

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

On getaway day, the Braves concluded their first post All-Star break homestand with an 8-0 shutout of the San Diego Padres at Turner Field. With Tim Hudson leading the way on the mound, and Alex Gonzalez’s four-hit day leading an offense that had six different players drive in runs—this was the epitome of a Braves quality win.

Atlanta currently owns a 7.0 game lead in the NL East, with an NL-best 56-39 record, as both Philadelphia and New York look up at the Braves with identical 49-46 records.

With the Braves about to embark on their second nine-plus game road trip of the season, let’s examine the upcoming road stretch, as well as the remaining schedule in the second half.

The Braves upcoming road trip will not log as many miles as the Arizona-Los Angeles-Minnesota trip in June that ended with four-game splits out west, and winning two of three at Target Field.

Currently the Braves are 34-13 in 47 home games (34 games remaining), and 22-26 in 48 road games (33 games remaining).

JULY 23-25 @ FLORIDA

While the Marlins are playing some good baseball right now, the Braves will be fortunate to miss their two best starters—Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

Friday, July 23 : Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, and will be opposed by Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA). Lowe hasn’t fared well against the Marlins in the past, going 1-2 with an ERA of 5.71 in six starts since the beginning of 2007.

Sanabia, he of the two career starts and 19 major league innings under his belt, has a good ERA, but his other statistics aren’t quite as impressive. He’s never made it out of the sixth inning and gives up his fair share of baserunners. The Braves have been hit or miss with pitchers they’ve seen for the first time.

Saturday, July 24: Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.31 ERA) returns to his slot in the rotation to face off against Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.62 ERA). This will be the third time the Braves have faced Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA against Atlanta this year. Sanchez has struggled in July, with an ERA over 6.00.

Medlen won his only start against Florida, giving up one run in 6.1 innings on July 1. Medlen’s only two losses came as a reliever. However, as a starter, he’s 6-0, and the Braves have only lost one of his 11 starts.

Sunday, July 25 : Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.25 ERA) pitches the finale Sunday afternoon against Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.78). Jurrjens has been fantastic in his four starts since returning from the DL (3-0, 2.21 ERA) and carries a 3-1 career record against the Fish in six starts. Volstad hasn’t had a great year, and carries a 1-2 record in four starts against the Braves since the beginning of 2007 into the Sunday matinee.

Prediction: The Braves have won two of three in both previous series with the Marlins this season—and it should continue. If Lowe pitches well on Friday, or the Braves can jump on the rookie, Jurrjens might have a chance to sweep the Fish away. Best bet for a victory is Jurrjens in the finale.

JULY 27-29 @ WASHINGTON

Tuesday, July 27 : I wouldn’t be surprised to see MLB Network pick up this game matching Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA).

Hanson’s owns a 3-0 career against the Nationals, and would be even better if the bullpen hadn’t blown a win for him last year. He beat Washington in early May in his only start against them this year.

Strasburg pitched well against the Braves but wound up on the losing end of a 5-0 shutout on June 28. I know this is nitpicking, but the stud rookie has come down to earth and has averaged less than 6.0 IP per start since June 23.

If both pitchers are on, we could see a lot of hitters blown away on both sides by high 90s fastballs and wicked breaking balls.

Wednesday, July 28 : Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) hopes to follow his scoreless outing against the Padres and out-duel Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12 ERA). Hernandez beat the Braves when the two teams played in May, but has a 6.29 ERA against Atlanta over the previous three seasons.

Hudson was the winner on June 28, pitching seven shutout innings to beat Strasburg and the Nats. He got a no decision against Washington in a 3-2 loss in early May, giving up two runs in seven innings. He’s been a Nat killer, going 8-0 with an ERA of about 1.50 since the beginning of 2007.

Thursday, July 29:   Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) pitches the finale in Washington facing Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50 ERA). These two faced off at Turner Field three weeks ago, as the Nationals beat Lowe and the Braves 7-2.

This month, Stammen has generally struggled, going 0-2 with an ERA over 7.00. Lowe is 4-5 against the Nats since the beginning of 2007, with a respectable 3.76 ERA.

Prediction: The Braves lost two out of three at Nationals Park in early May, and won two of three at Turner Field in late June. The way the Braves and Nats are playing now are more like they were in late June, rather than early May, when the Braves weren’t hitting, and the Nats were playing quite well. Chalk up another two out of three to make it a 4-2 record so far on the road trip. Best bet – Hudson dominates Washington, and should continue to do so on Wednesday.

JULY 30 – AUGUST 1 @ CINCINNATI

Friday, July 30 : Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.19 ERA) faces ace Johnny Cueto (9-2, 3.39 ERA) to open the series in the Queen City. 

Cueto is 1-0 in two career starts against the Braves, with the Reds winning close games both times, beating Atlanta in 2008, and getting a no-decision in a 4-2 win at Turner Field in September 2009. 

Saturday, July 31 : The trade deadline comes and goes as Jair Jurrjens hopes to continue his successful string of starts since being activated to take on Mike Leake (7-1, 3.45 ERA).

Leake got a no-decision in the game the Braves made the 9th inning comeback. He allowed three runs (one earned) in six innings before giving way to a bullpen that eventually imploded.

Jurrjens has had some bad luck against the Reds in the past. He struggles against them in 2008, but left with the lead before the Braves bullpen gave up the lead and eventually the win. In his two 2009 starts against the Reds, he took the losses both times. One game he left down 1-0 after 2.0 innings because of a rain delay, and the other, was a 3-1 loss in September, where he tossed seven solid innings, but got no run support.

Sunday, August 1 : Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) hopes to make up for his last start against the Reds as he closes out the series and the road trip to face Bronson Arroyo (10-5, 4.25 ERA) in the finale.

At the outset, this has all the making of a Reds blowout win, but Hanson was sick that day, pitched horribly, and the Braves still won on Brooks Conrad’s pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam. In his other career start against the Reds, Hanson pitched six innings of three-hit shutout baseball to earn the win.

Arroyo seems to be either Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde when facing the Braves. Since he joined the Reds before the 2006 season, Arroyo is 3-3 in seven starts against Atlanta, with a 7.48 ERA.

In his three wins, Arroyo is 3-0, with a 1.39 ERA in 19.1 IP.

In the other four starts, Arroyo is 0-3 with a 14.29 ERA in 17.0 IP.

Prediction: The Braves showed the late inning magic in sweeping a two-game set from the Reds in May. The Reds have struggled some lately. Hanson shakes off his last start against the Reds, and Jurrjens finally gets the best of Cincinnati as the Braves take two out of three. Best bet is the Braves getting to Arroyo early on Sunday, to finish a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record, and returning home twenty games over .500 at 62-42.

AFTER THE ROAD TRIP. . .

Remaining Road Schedule

The Braves will return home from Cincinnati to host the Mets and Giants. The Braves have four road trips remaining (24 games) and they break down as follows

August:

Three games: Three @ Houston (3-0 at Turner Field)

Six games: Three @ Chicago Cubs (2-1 at Turner Field)
                Three @ Colorado (2-1 at Turner Field)

September :

Six games: Three @ Florida (4-2 this season)
               Three @ Pittsburgh (5-1 this season)

Nine games: Three @ NY Mets (3-5 this season, 1-4 at Citi Field)
                 Three @ Philadelphia (7-5 this season, 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park)
                 Three @ Washington (3-3 this season, 1-2 at Nationals Park)

Analysis:

The Braves have a combined 10-2 record against the NL central teams they still have to face on the road this year. With the Cubs in turmoil, and Houston and Pittsburgh being the doormats of the division, I don’t expect much of a change.

Citi Field has not been the Braves’ friend this year, but two of those losses the Braves gave away during their nine-game losing streak in April. They’ve played the Mets better since. Philly could be shutting it down if they’re too far out, or they could have recharged with a healthy Chase Utley, Jamie Moyer, Placido Polanco, and perhaps a starting pitcher addition.

The best series to watch for on the road would be at Colorado in mid-August, and at Philadelphia in mid-September.

Prediction: Braves win 13 or 14 out of their final 24 road games. Their final road record would be 41-40 give or take a game.

Remaining Home Schedule

Starting with the series against the Mets in early August the Braves play 34 of their final 58 games at home, where they’ve won at a .723 clip – the best in the majors this season.

August:

Seven games: Three vs NY Mets (1-1 at Turner Field, 3-5 overall)
                    Four vs San Francisco (1-2 at AT&T Park in April)

Seven games: Four vs LA Dodgers (2-2 at Dodgers Stadium)
                   Three vs Washington (2-1 at Turner Field, 3-3 overall)

Seven games: Three vs Florida (2-1 at Turner Field, 4-2 overall)
                    Four vs NY Mets

September:

Seven games: Four vs St. Louis (0-4 at Busch Stadium in April)
                    Three vs Washington

Six games: Three vs Florida
               Three vs Philadelphia (4-2 at Turner Field, 7-5 overall)

Analysis:

The Braves home schedule is tougher than their road schedule the rest of the season, just from a team record standpoint. They’ve played the Mets, Phillies, and Giants much better at home than on the road in the recent past and that will likely continue. However, the Braves’ final home series vs Philadelphia may not matter too much, as it’s the last weekend of the season.

The Mets aren’t a good road team, and have showed it lately by going 1-6 on a west coast road trip to Arizona and San Francisco, and should be 0-7 if Phil Cuzzi doesn’t miss the call at home on Sunday. I expect the Braves I see the Braves winning 5 of the 7 remaining home game with the Mets, and four of the six remaining with both Florida and Washington.

Depending on the pitching match-ups, a split might not be a bad thing against the Cardinals, especially if Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia and (maybe Oswalt) pitch in that series. The Dodgers are a better home team and the Braves winning 3 in that series is not out of the question. In past years, the series between the Giants and Braves have generally favored the home team, regardless of their records.

Prediction: The Braves win 22 or 23 of their final 34 home games. Their final home record will be 56-25, give or take a game.

Adding it up. The Braves are on pace to finish with a record of 97-65, their best since the 2003 season when they won 100 games for the second straight year. That should give them at least one home-field series as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With five All-Stars and 50-plus wins before the break, the Atlanta Braves look very strong going into the second half of the 2010 season.

They’ve combined their stellar pitching staff with timely hitting (16 wins in their last at-bat before the All-Star Break) and have steered clear of the Phillies and Mets to jump out to a 4-game lead in the NL East.

The Braves have certainly given Bobby Cox a season to remember in his last campaign, but let’s take a quick look on where the team is headed to try to predict if its second half can match up to their first.

First we’ll start with a positional breakdown on this Braves’ squad.

Begin Slideshow

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com