Tag: Jake Peavy

Chicago White Sox: The One Reason the Sox Will Win the Division This Year

Forget for just a moment that the Chicago White Sox hit .271 as a team and went 18-8 in the month of May.

Forget that the Sox had 39 dingers and scored 156 runs for the month for an average of 5.38 runs per game.

Forget for a moment that Paul Konerko hit .379, Dayan Viciedo hit .351, Alejandro De Aza hit .313 in May.

Forget for a moment that the Sox are the only AL Central team with more runs scored than runs allowed.

Finally, forget that Adam Dunn has 17 home runs and 38 RBI while Gordon Beckham seems like the fit the Sox have been looking for in the two-hole all year.

The White Sox are not going to win the AL Central based upon their hitting, even if this pace keeps up for the rest of the year. The White Sox are going to win the Central because of their pitching.

Entering play on Saturday, the White Sox have, far and away, the best pitching in the AL Central and some of the best in the American League. Let’s take a look at how the Sox stack up against the rest of the Central and the American League:

  • 1st with a 3.86 team ERA (6th in AL)
  • 1st with 31 quality starts (2nd in AL)
  • 1st in strikeouts (5th in AL)
  • 1st in batting average against (T-1st AL)
  • 1st in WHIP with an amazing 1.191 (1st in AL)

Pretty phenomenal numbers considering how bad Gavin Floyd, Philip Humber and John Danks have been at times. Every other team in the Central has a team ERA of 4.20 or higher. The Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers sport team ERAs over 4.25.

The AL can hit, it is as simple as that, and the teams with the best pitching win division titles nowadays. Take Detroit last year as an example. The Tigers were in second place well into June last year and won the division by 15 games over the Indians.

Why, you ask?  Was it their hitting? No, it was not; the Tigers pulled away thanks to their pitching staff. Justin Verlander was outstanding all year en route to an AL MVP and the Cy Young award, while Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello produced as expected in the second half of the season. The shrewd pickup of Doug Fister, who went 8-1, put Detroit over the top.

In addition to the the success of the starters, the Tigers trotted out five relievers with over 30 appearances who had WHIPs of 1.50 or lower. 

The Sox are, right now, in exactly the same position Detroit was in last year, with two exceptions.

First, the Sox already have two pitchers in Jake Peavy and Chris Sale having top-of-the-league type years.

Second, and most importantly, the White Sox have seven, that’s right seven, relievers on pace for more than 30 appearances who currently have WHIPs below 1.50. Outstanding stuff. Three solid lefties (yes, Will Ohman is actually a solid lefty) compliment right-handers Jessie Crain and rookie phenom Nate Jones, while Addison Reed has established himself as a fearless closer.

With my daughter’s favorite White Sox pitcher, Zach Stewart, pitching long relief (his 4.08 ERA is lower than Danks, Humber and Floyd’s), the Sox are in great shape from a pitching perspective.

The one move that permanently solidifies the White Sox as having the best pitching staff in the Central is releasing the bag-of-bats we all know as Kosuke Fukudome and keeping lefty call-up Hector Santiago on the roster. The Sox are stocked!

The adage thrown around baseball is that if you want to win the division, you have to beat the division.  In order to win in this year’s AL Central, the formidable lineups of both Detroit and Cleveland have to be offset, and the White Sox have just the men for the job. 

Enjoy the offensive production while it lasts, but team pitching is going to win the Central for the Sox this year.

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MLB Trade Scenarios: Top Starters Likely to Be Available at the Deadline

The MLB trade deadline brings excitement each summer as contenders try to improve their team while pretenders look to the future.

The saying in baseball is that you can’t have too much pitching, so starting pitchers are always at high demand around the deadline.

An elite starting pitcher can be the difference in reaching the postseason or making a run at a World Series Championship.

Cliff Lee was traded at the deadline to the Texas Rangers a few years ago and led them all the way to the World Series.

There doesn’t appear to be a pitcher on Lee’s level, but there are good pitchers that should become available by the deadline.

Let’s take a look at some of the top starting pitchers who could help your baseball team get to the next level.

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Chicago White Sox: The Clash to Close and Battle for the Pen

I’ve got some big news, White Sox fans.

In light of the openings in the White Sox bullpen, I have decided to forgo my career in sports journalism to challenge the likes of Hector Santiago, Gregory Infante, Dylan Axelrod, Brian Bruney, Zach Stewart and Eric Stults in their quest to make the big club.

In all seriousness, the existence of these openings in the White Sox relief corps isn’t necessarily reassuring for Sox fans. Keep in mind that Will Ohman already has his name penciled into the roster card.  Ouch.

Before I go on my usual rant, let me give some credit to Bruney for slimming down and looking exactly like from Frank on American Pickers (yeah, I watch the History Channel). His sleekness has proved to be successful in the early-going as the righty hasn’t allowed a run while striking out three in two appearances so far.

Axelrod, a 30th-round pick in the 2007 MLB Draft by the San Diego Padres, has been a cute, little side-story for a team that needs a spark of optimism and good energy. (Exactly what I can provide.)

When Kenny Williams shipped Sergio Santos to Toronto, he set up the White Sox bullpen for disaster.

Now, the group consists of a collection of parts primarily unwanted by the rest of the league that is headlined by set-up men Jesse Crain and Matt Thornton.

But wait, who will Robin Ventura call on to close out the nail-biters?

To this point, it seems as though the closer’s job is a three-horsed competition between Thornton, Crain and Addison Reed.

Thornton and Crain, league veterans, will undoubtedly be given the first crack at the opportunity because of their success in the league.  

Notice that I didn’t allude to their successes at closing ball games. Neither Thornton or Crain have exactly lit the world on fire in this stressful role.

Thornton was named the closer at the beginning of last season and fell flat on his face, converting only three saves in seven opportunities. Yeah, he faced a little bit of a bad luck with atrocious fielding behind him, but you can’t expect to blow four saves and still remain the closer of a team expecting to compete.

Crain, albeit masterful at times, has a propensity of serving up gopher-balls late in games. Although he did put together a great season (8-3, 2.62 ERA, 70 K in 67 G), he’s a set-up man. Let’s not try the Matt Thornton Experiment again.

Closing in the big leagues requires a certain type of mentality. Grit and mental toughness are absolute essentials towards success in the ninth inning. While I’m not questioning Crain’s mental toughness, he’s closed a mere four games in his MLB career. Let’s not make orange juice out of lemons. (I love making up mantras on the spot.)

At just 23 years old, Reed can still be molded into a major league closer. He possesses a big fastball/nasty slider combination and a deceptive delivery that can make him an immediate asset to the big club. During garbage time last season, the San Diego State alumni struck out 12 guys in six appearances in September. If my math is correct, that’s approximately two Ks an outing. 

Punch-outs aside, Reed is still young enough where he can develop the intensity and “Kenny-Powerness” to close out the nail-biting, leg-shaking White Sox victories. 

Apart from the the bullpen, the White Sox starting rotation and lineup seem to be pretty set in stone. 

The rotation boasts the likes of John “$65 million No. 4 starter” Danks, Gavin “The Phillies drafted me instead of Mark Teixeira” Floyd, Jake “I won a Cy Young before the recession” Peavy, Phil “I hope the magic that invaded my body last season doesn’t wear off” Humber and Chris “Why am I included with this bunch of schmos” Sale.

Don’t keep get me started on the starting lineup. Obvious highlights include Adam “If I strike out quickly on three pitches, maybe the fans won’t notice” Dunn and Alex “I’m going to buy a $12 million diamond tiara with all the money I’m owed” Rios.

But, at least the team now features Kosuke Fukudome. Joking aside, his signing was one of Kenny’s better moves. Finally, an outfielder who can actually read a fly ball. What a concept.

Dan Johnson, former “Moneyball” first basemen of the Oakland Athletics, will hopefully bring some good defense and OBP to a team that could use another lifetime .235 hitter.

The fact that I have to mention Dan Johnson in my column isn’t necessarily an optimistic foreboding for the 2012 White Sox.  

Although the Pale Hose might not compete for the pennant, Sox fans should look on the bright side.

While 20 different pitchers might get their 15 minutes of fame in the White Sox bullpen, I won’t be one of them.  

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Chicago White Sox: Jake Peavy Could Be a Real Bargain…in 2013

Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams has several players under long-term, unmovable contracts. Jake Peavy is one of several big money disappointments Williams has acquired over the past few seasons.

Eventually, the oft-injured starter could prove to be of value to an organization. It just won’t be next year, and it likely won’t be for the White Sox.

Since Williams traded three players for the 2007 Cy Young award winner with the Padres, Peavy has pitched in 39 games. He has gone 17-13 since donning a Sox uniform late in the 2009 season. He has been on the disabled list for significant parts of those two and a half seasons. He has taken almost $35 million in salary from Chicago.

By way of comparison, Clayton Richard, the tall lefty who was the centerpiece of the package the White Sox sent West, has pitched in 63 games since the trade. He has a 24-20 record. San Diego has paid him about a million dollars in his time with the club.

The Padres paid Richard a million dollars for 24 wins. Chicago has shelled out twice that salary for each of Peavy’s victories.

What’s even worse than the thievery is the fact that Peavy was obtained to be the dominant ace Chicago’s rotation has lacked despite having a host of quality arms. Peavy has certainly talked the talk of an ace.

Unfortunately, his body can’t hold up its end of the bargain. Whether missing time to an inured ankle, rotator cuff tendinitis or a detached shoulder muscle, Peavy has not been the hurler Williams sought.

Peavy’s salary climbs to $17 million in 2012, the last year of his contract originally signed with San Diego. There is a $22 million option the White Sox could trigger for 2013, but there is little to no chance of that happening.

Instead, the White Sox are faced with one of the following scenarios:

A. Peavy plods through another injury-filled season, finishes 8-9, and moves on when the White Sox exercise the $4 million buyout.

B. Peavy’s shoulder comes around and he posts a fairly impressive 14-6 mark. He goes to Williams and says, “You know, you guys paid me a lot of money to sit on the DL these last three and a half years. Let’s call the buyout a signing bonus on a three-year deal at six or seven million per?”

C. Peavy’s pitches well, is healthy for the first time in years, then bolts to the highest bidder when Williams has the gall to balk at the $22 million option. He then goes out and wins 18 games for someone else.

In 2013, Peavy will find himself signing at a greatly reduced salary and will be more than two years removed from surgery. It is very possible that he’ll be a much better value when he isn’t being paid Cy Young-winner type of money.

Too bad for Williams that option B isn’t usually how baseball works these days.

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Chicago White Sox: 6 Lessons to Take from August

The Chicago White Sox survived a topsy-turvy August, entering the final month of the season second in the division with a 68-66 record.  To say that Ozzie Guillen can be at ease with his White Sox above water would be to overlook both the character of Guillen and the expectations set for the White Sox at the beginning of the season when some picked them to the win the division. 

The White Sox looked like they were out of playoff contention at the beginning of the month.  At the end of August, the White Sox again looked to be out of contention.  The White Sox went on five-game winning streaks and sustained losing streaks.  Additionally, Guillen saw his White Sox hit extraordinarily well for several games at a time only to lose their hitting stroke.  In a similar vein, the White Sox had spells of strong pitching and spells of poor pitching.

Following is a look at some nuggets of wisdom to be gathered from the month of August.

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Fantasy Baseball: 9 Injured Players Worth a Stash in “DL” Slot Until Healthy

An injured player that returns can be like making a one-sided trade for your fantasy team. You can add a star player to your lineup while dropping your worst player. Sometimes the strategy pays off. Sometimes it blows up in your face. You have to take risks to win fantasy championships though.

Here are some injured players that you can store in your “bank” in hopes that they will pay dividends down the road.

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Morales is a little scary right now because he seems to be getting worse, rather than better. You probably remember he broke his leg celebrating a walk off grand slam on May 29th last year. He has been experiencing soreness in his toe. Mark Trumbo, who has been dealing with an injury (groin) of his own, will keep first base warm for Morales. Kendrys hit 34 home runs in 2009 and had 11 in 51 games before going down. Unfortunately you’re going to have to still take him fairly early (64 average draft position) because of his potential. Hopefully he won’t spend too much time in your DL slot.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees
Granderson strained his oblique, which could cause him to miss the start of the season. While that is disappointing news to fantasy owners, it could give you better value than his ADP (73) before the injury. Granderson hit 17 home runs and carried a .861 OPS after the All-Star break last year.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies 
Utley is another guy that comes with a risk thanks to a knee injury that will likely keep him out on Opening Day. Anytime a knee is involved, it’s a pretty sticky situation. Best case scenario is it heals fast and it doesn’t hinder his production. The likely scenario is Utley playing through the injury, but his numbers will be affected. The worst case scenario is Utley being shut down. We don’t really know what is going to happen with him. That’s what makes drafting Utley so scary. His ADP is 18, but sinking fast.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians
Sizemore won’t play on Opening Day, as he recovers from a knee injury. When he returns, he will probably be limited initially. He isn’t a 30-30 threat this year, but he could post a 20 HR/20 SB season. His ADP is 99, which makes him a little bit of a risk. The payday could be great though.

Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets
Beltran is shooting for Opening Day, but given his injury history, I wouldn’t hold my breath. The main reason I like Beltran is his value. His ADP is 228, meaning you can get him around the 19th round of fantasy drafts. I don’t think he’ll ever post the numbers he did, as recently as 2008, but he could be a solid power/speed combo.
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Brian Wilson, RP, San Francisco Giants
Like Granderson, Wilson is dealing with a strained oblique. It is an injury that can be aggravated, but it’s not alarming at this point. Wilson remains one of the game’s elite closers.
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Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
It’s gambling time. Johan won’t like pitch until the All-Star break, if he pitches at all in 2011. He’s an excellent second half pitcher, but will he be productive without having the first half to get warmed up?  With an ADP of 208, he is certainly worth the risk. If he is 75 percent of what he’s been after the break (65-23, 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), you could get a huge boost for the stretch run.
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Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox
Peavy’s return from lat reattachment surgery is dealing with rotator cuff tendinitis. It’s only expected to keep him out a few weeks of the season. He struggled a bit last year going 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. I think he’ll be closer to the pitcher that went 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA with the White Sox in 2009.

Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Cueto’s shoulder will sideline him for the start of the year. He still should have plenty of value for fantasy owners. His ERA and WHIP have gone down in each of the past two years. He’s worth considering towards the end of your draft.

Also check out:

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MLB Fantasy Baseball’s Late-Round, Draft-Day Targets: WHIP

Finding pitchers who help in the WHIP department is not always an easy task; finding one late in your draft (after Round 18) is even tougher. 

Here are five pitchers who I have projected for a 1.30 WHIP or better who are available late in your draft (based on Mock Draft Central’s ADP):

 

Brian Matusz – Baltimore Orioles

He may be a tough sell, considering that he is entering his second full season and is pitching in the AL East. 

Still, in the minor leagues he posted a 2.55 BB/9 and 9.64 K/9 (the higher the strikeout rate, the lower the dependence on BABIP in regards to the WHIP).

Those two numbers have the makings of an elite mark.

While he wasn’t quite that good in his rookie year, he was good enough, with a 3.23 BB/9 and 7.33 K/9. Coupled with a .292 BABIP, he posted a 1.34 WHIP. 

With a year of experience under his belt, there certainly is reason to believe that he can improve across the board. That certainly would lead to a better WHIP.

Plus, before you say it’s impossible to post a good WHIP in the AL East, just look at these marks:

  • Shaun Marcum – 1.15
  • Jeremy Guthrie – 1.16
  • Clay Buchholz – 1.20
  • Jeff Niemann – 1.26
  • Ricky Romero – 1.29

Those aren’t the Jon Lester’s or CC Sabathia’s of the world, either.

Matusz certainly has the potential and could be a great source late in your draft.

 

Ian Kennedy – Arizona Diamondbacks

In his first full season in the Major Leagues, Kennedy showed why he was high on the Yankees prospect list, posting a 1.20 WHIP thanks to a 3.25 BB/9 and .256 BABIP. 

Obviously, the BABIP is not realistic, though the walks are thanks to a minor league career BB/9 of 2.79.

With his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the walks, it is no wonder that he can be a good source of WHIP for fantasy owners. 

Obviously I wouldn’t count on a 1.20, but there is no reason that, with his proven skills, that he can’t provide for fantasy owners.

 

Jake Peavy – Chicago White Sox

There are probably a couple of reasons Peavy is being selected late in drafts. 

One is his health, as he tries to recover from a detached ligament. It’s an extremely rare injury and no one really knows exactly what to expect. 

At first, it appeared that he was going to miss at least a little time early in the season, but now that may not be the case. There also was the concern about moving to the AL, which is a very fair concern.

That is more geared towards his ERA, however, not his WHIP. 

In 107.0 innings with the White Sox in ’10 he still managed a 1.23 WHIP. He throws strikes (2.91 career BB/9) and gets strikeouts (8.93 career K/9), which helps limit the effect of BABIP. 

As it is, his BABIP the past four seasons has been between .273 and .280, helping to WHIPs of:

  • 2007 – 1.06
  • 2008 – 1.18
  • 2009 – 1.12
  • 2010 – 1.23

There’s a lot of risk, but there is also a huge potential reward.

 

Bronson Arroyo – Cincinnati Reds

We all know what we are getting when we select Arroyo. 

On occasion, he is going to post a real clunker. He’s not going to post much in the way of strikeouts. He is going to limit the walks.

For his career, he has a 2.73 BB/9 and in ’10 he was at 2.46. While his 1.15 from ’10 is highly unlikely (it came courtesy of a .239 BABIP), he does have a career mark of 1.31 (which is skewed from poor years in ’07 & ’08, due to inflated BABIP).

He’s a late round option for a reason, because he has very little “upside.” 

Still, if you have a staff built with strikeouts and need a steady WHIP option who is going to win games (15 or more each of the past three years), Arroyo certainly has value.

 

Scott Baker/Kevin Slowey – Minnesota Twins

Interestingly enough, they are competing for the Twins’ fifth starters job, which may help to explain why both are currently available in the later rounds. 

There are rumors that Slowey could be traded, which will help clear up who to target (the answer would be both of them). For now, we are going to have to monitor the news and see how it all plays out.

I believe it was two seasons ago that I wrote an article entitled “Scott Baker the WHIP Maker.” While 2010 is not the best example (1.34), he was at 1.18 and 1.19 the two previous years. He has impeccable control (2.10 career BB/9) and, if the luck returns (he had a .323 BABIP in ’10), there is no reason why he couldn’t get back to the elite numbers. 

If he wins the job (and he currently appears to be the favorite), he’s an absolute bargain.

Slowey, remarkably, is an even better control artist, with a career BB/9 of 1.50 over 473.1 innings—even with a .307 BABIP in ’10 he posted a 1.29 WHIP. 

He is more of a fly ball pitcher (50.6 percent fly ball rate in ’10), so a trade would have a huge impact on his potential value. 

Regardless, with his control, he could be a monster WHIP option.

 

What are your thoughts of these options? Would you target any of them? Is there someone else you would look at late in your draft to help with WHIP?

 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out our previous late round articles:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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MLB 2011 Predictions: Felix Hernandez and the Best Starting Pitchers in the AL

Pitching wins championships.

It’s not overly complicated: if you have a great starting rotation, you’re going to win some ball games. Just ask the San Francisco Giants, or a Philadelphia Phillies fan if you’ve got the time.

Every offseason teams try to bring in talented arms. Sometimes those arms are found through free agency, while other times it comes from a hot prospect or even taking a chance on an aging veteran.

For many teams, their seasons hinge on the performance of their starting rotation.

That said, let’s take a look at who will be the best starting pitchers in the AL on their respective teams in 2011.

 

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MLB Spring Training 2011: 8 Teams That Should Consider Using a Four-Man Rotation

Spring training is under way, and we can now take a much more in-depth look at what the regular season holds in store.

Last season, we were fortunate enough to watch dominating pitching take over the landscape of Major League Baseball; and this season looks to be the same.

With ample amounts of solid arms in last year’s playoffs, run production (believe it or not) was few and far between for some ball clubs.

However, for a vast majority of teams without such talent on the mound, last season was a forgettable one.

So as we take a look into what’s to come this season, let’s contemplate which teams could benefit the most from a four-man starting rotation for the beginning of the season.

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Chicago White Sox SP Jake Peavy: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

A common recommendation from fantasy baseball writers this spring is to wait on pitching, as there is value to be found in the latter stages of fantasy drafts. While there are certainly a few blue chip starters like Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez who command an early-round pick, there are also late round value picks or sleepers who could pay dividends for owners this summer. 

One such player is Jake Peavy, the 2007 Cy Young winner who was acquired by the Chicago White Sox via trade in 2009. Although Peavy has not been able to replicate his award-winning form in which he went 19-6 with an impressive 2.54 ERA and a league leading 240 strikeouts, he is just 29 years old and does have the ability to be a viable third or fourth starter for fantasy owners. 

Drafting a player like Peavy is like placing a roulette bet in Vegas or Internet Casino.  Yes, you may lose your initial bet if he ends up being a bust. However, the return on your bet and the odds that you receive are well worth the gamble.  At his current ADP of 375, Peavy is an excellent value pick in all formats. 

In his only spring training outing so far in 2011, Peavy delivered two scoreless innings with one walk and two strikeouts. The White Sox appear to be slowly working him back into the rotation, and there has been some speculation that he may miss a few starts this April.  

When drafting this spring, owners should view Jake Peavy as a low risk, high reward pick.  If he struggles to perform well due to injuries or age, his owner will only be giving up a late round pick.  Conversely, if he recaptures some of his former self he could be the key to a championship season.

Check out our other sleepers for 2011:

Craig Kimbrel

Jeremy Hellickson

Rick Porcello

Mike Aviles 

 

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com. The home of free fantasy baseball news, rankings and advice.

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