Kuzul

This is a curious case for Corey Kluber. 

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner and his Cleveland Indians employers have yet to discuss a contract extension, but considering his potential value and cost, Kluber makes sense as a guy the team would want to sign to an extension.

The Indians have already acknowledged that much.

Indians may look to negotiate contract extension w/ Corey Kluber in Feb/Mar, but for now nothing brewing. CK under team control for 4 years.

— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) January 25, 2015

“Corey represents all of the things we look for in players: dependable, reliable person, committed to his work ethic, talented,” Indians President Mark Shapiro told reporters last week, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. “Then you look at contracts and you say, ‘Can we find that point where we’re both comfortable with the shared risk?’ We don’t know that right now. That’s something that we’ll have to look at.

“As prioritization of the calendar goes, it’s something we’ll probably look at over the next couple of months. … He has all the precursors that we would look for to enter into a multiyear agreement.”

The club has long been unwilling to accept that shared risk Shapiro talks about. While the team has been aggressive in building contract extensions for some of its position players—Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes—it has been dormant with pitchers. It did not sign its previous ace, Justin Masterson, to an extension, leaving Roberto Hernandez, then known as Fausto Carmona, in 2008 as the last pitcher the Indians have signed to an extension.

But Kluber, whose Cy Young campaign came in his second full season in the majors, could become quite expensive if he continues to produce like an ace. The Indians understand this, and that is why the thought of a new contract makes plenty of sense.

For the numbers Kluber put up last season, he is being paid like a peasant in the kingdom of Major League Baseball. He made $514,000 last season and is set to again make the league minimum this season before reaching arbitration. That price tag for 2015 could give the Indians hesitance in striking a new deal, but if Kluber continues to perform, the Indians could still have him at a bargain.

When the Chicago White Sox extended Chris Sale before the 2013 season, he had similar service time (two-plus years) as Kluber. That contract was worth $32.5 million over five years, and at around this time a year ago, the Atlanta Braves signed Julio Teheran to a six-year, $32.4 million deal. The Teheran contract came after his rookie season, and both extensions covered at least one year of free agency. The deals were in line with ones signed by Madison Bumgarner (five years, $35 million) and Ricky Romero (five years, $30.1 million).

A deal for Kluber would likely look very similar to those signed before this season. The difference between Kluber and those other pitchers is age. Kluber turns 29 on April 10, and buying even one free-agent season would mean the Indians are paying a 33-year-old pitcher, something the mid-market team has deliberately avoided.

If the Indians do not extend Kluber before his arbitration years kick in after this season, the risk is expensive, as arbitration prices for aces have reached all-time highs.

Just a couple weeks ago, Detroit Tigers ace David Price annihilated the previous record for an arbitration-eligible player, which was set last year by Max Scherzer at $15.25 million. Price was coming off a good but not great season in which he led the American League in strikeouts and innings pitched but managed just a modest 117 ERA-plus. Still, his track record and previous salary earned him a one-year, $19.75 million contract. Price’s salary was boosted by the fact that he was a Super Two player, giving him an extra year of arbitration.

If Kluber continues to be a Cy Young candidate, the Indians could see his value in arbitration skyrocket to a number they are uncomfortable paying. In that case, cost certainty, and regulating Kluber’s salary, makes a lot of sense for the organization.

The reason an extension makes sense for Kluber is the same reason the Indians might balk at buying out free-agent years: age. Kluber is a late bloomer who performed at a completely unexpected level in 2014. Certainly there is no assurance he will continue to dominate the AL as he did last season, so taking the guaranteed money is the smart, safe play. And if he can get any number of his free-agent years bought out, he should take that money, too.

As for why, aside from the obvious guaranteed cash, Kluber needs to look no further than James Shields’ struggle to land what he believes he is worth this offseason. Shields was hoping for a nine-figure contract, one that would earn him in the neighborhood of $20 million as the average annual value. Those hopes seem to have been dashed, as the 33-year-old is still unsigned two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training.

As for the possibility of all of this actually happening, Kluber is deflecting.

“That’s not my job to worry about that,” Kluber said to Zack Meisel of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. “My job is to go out there and pitch. I have agents that can handle that stuff for me when the time comes. My job is to get prepared to play this season.”

Clearly, both sides are open to making it happen. The next two months will tell us if this sensible deal will happen sooner rather than later.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The drought needs to end.

The Toronto Blue Jays have not made the postseason since winning the World Series in 1993, the longest dry spell in Major League Baseball. Though the Jays have made blockbuster trades aimed at ending the streak in recent years, including this offseason, they have not finished any better than third in the American League East in the last eight seasons.

This offseason has been one of the most impactful in franchise history. Toronto acquired MVP candidate Josh Donaldson in a trade and signed native son Russell Martin as a free agent. But the Jays are still one major piece away from ending the drought at 21 years.

James Shields is that piece.

The Blue Jays’ rotation was not good last season, ranking 11th out of 15 AL teams with a 3.96 ERA and 10th with a 3.93 FIP. And aside from their fifth spot, the rotation will be the same for 2015, with R.A. Dickey, Marcus Stroman, Mark Buehrle and Drew Hutchison all returning. Clearly, there is room to upgrade and a significant need for a No. 1 starter.

The problem is money. The Blue Jays have a reported $5-7 million remaining in their budget, and as of now, it seems to be earmarked for bullpen improvements.

Shields is going to cost considerably more than what the Jays currently have in their budget. That is even with rumblings from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman that the five-year, $110 million offer he was reported to have on the table was a “mirage,” and that his price tag is likely going to end up being considerably less.

If his asking price does drop, it could put the Blue Jays in play, but it would also open the door for several other teams as well. Major league sources confirmed to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal earlier this month that the Jays do indeed have interest in Shields and have had internal discussions to determine a price the club would be comfortable spending.

All offseason, the payroll threshold for the Blue Jays has been set at around $137 million, and they are currently at around $130 million in commitments, according to information from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

In order to sign Shields, the contract would probably have to be backloaded, as is Martin’s deal. It will also require Toronto’s ownership group, Rogers Communications, to be willing to push their payroll into the $150 million territory.

There are definite obstacles in making this happen, but if it does, Shields will be the key piece in making the Blue Jays a 2015 postseason participant as he was for Kansas City’s World Series run last October.

As things stand now, the AL East seems to be the most wide-open division in baseball. Last season’s champions, the Baltimore Orioles, lost a ton of power in Nelson Cruz and a reliable bat in Nick Markakis and also do not have a true ace in their rotation. The New York Yankees are aging and prone to injuries, especially in their rotation. The Tampa Bay Rays lost their best player, Ben Zobrist, and the Boston Red Sox, despite big-time upgrades to their lineup, have real questions concerning their rotation.

Signing Shields would mean the Blue Jays have a durable No. 1 starter to head their rotation backed by one of the deepest lineups in the AL. That does not mean the Jays would be a lock to win the division, but Shields would give their chances a massive boost.

The market for Shields has taken a weird turn in the last month. Teams seem to have fleeting interest in him, and others have all but completely shut the door on signing him, including ones that have pitching needs like the San Diego Padres, Red Sox and Royals. One executive even thinks part of the problem is that Shields’ agent, Page Odle, has not marketed Shields like an ace, as The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported Sunday. 

Whatever the reason for Shields’ suddenly odd market, he is there to be had for the Blue Jays and at a price that has dropped significantly from the rumored $110 million. While it is easy to understand ownership’s apprehension at handing a 33-year-old pitcher upward of $80 million, the risk is still relatively small since Rosenthal reported the length of a Shields contract would likely be four years. That makes the pitcher a manageable investment.

The Blue Jays have already committed themselves to winning in 2015. The moves to acquire Donaldson and Martin prove that much. But they are still an incomplete team. They are missing a top-of-the-rotation arm, one that Shields possesses.

In order for the Toronto to legitimize its push to end the longest playoff drought in the majors, it needs to open the wallet and get its ace.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent he previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The Kansas City Royals made a big splash in 2012 when they traded away top-rated prospect Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. It revealed a desire to transition from rebuilding to contending in Kansas City. 

But Shields was always perceived as a bit of a “rental player.” The Royals would keep him until his current contract ran out and then move on, happily receiving the draft-pick compensation the pitcher would be attached to.

To this point, it seems that perception is reality. Shields delivered Kansas City two good seasons. The team found some success in the postseason. Now, Shields’ contract has expired and he will pitch elsewhere on a brand new, high-dollar contract.

But it’s January, Shields doesn’t have a new contract and the market for the hurler has yet to truly materialize. There is plenty of speculation, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has pointed out, but it seems to be nothing more.

It would be fair to assume that Shields will receive a contract worth less than originally thought the deeper into the offseason he goes. It may also come with a lower dollar value or fewer years than what he was hoping for. Those factors could lead to a reunion with the Royals.

The Royals are not a team that is known to splurge on its players. They tend to bring players on at a low cost and allow them to accumulate value. Shields may be open to a short-term contract that would allow him to re-approach the market again later.

The problem is that Shields in not getting any younger. He will open the 2015 season at 33 years old. Coming back to market at the age of 34 or 35 is certainly not going to help the right-hander find a long-term deal. His market may very well diminish before he can get back to it, even in a year or two.

Rosenthal states in his piece a belief that Shields will eventually sign a deal worth $70 to 80 million over the course of four years. The low end of that speculation would certainly drive some interest in Shields.

He goes on to speculate where Shields may wind up, citing a recent MLB Network Radio interview with Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Moore told the show, “I can’t say it hasn’t crossed my mind. At this point in time, though, it’s doubtful we bring back James.”

Doubtful does not mean impossible. Shields would solidify an impressive rotation in Kansas City. He would do the same for a lot of clubs. Ultimately, there may not be another team that understands Shields’ value as well as the Royals.

As Moore stated, Shields returning to Kansas City is doubtful. But doubts are the stuff dreams are made of, and January is when doubts turn into reality.

Transaction and age information in this article courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

Bill Ivie is the founder of I-70 Baseball. Follow him on Twitter to discuss baseball anytime.

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There has been no greater riddle this offseason than James Shields, the marquee free agent nobody wants.

OK, “nobody” is an overstatement. But while other elite arms—Jon Lester, Max Scherzer—have fallen off the board, the market for Shields remains a puzzling mess.

Add the Arizona Diamondbacks to the list of teams that say they’re out on the 33-year-old right-hander.

On Jan. 13, general manager Dave Stewart indicated to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic that the D’Backs were interested in Shields, opining that the ex-Kansas City Royals ace “probably sees us as a true baseball team [versus] some of the other teams out here that are geared more toward analytics and those type of things.”

On Thursday, Stewart walked those comments back (the ones about being interested in Shields, not about who is and isn’t a “true baseball team”), per Piecoro:

San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean recently told Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News that he wasn’t planning any more “high ticket” additions. Plus, the Giants are now reportedly in pursuit of Ryan Vogelsong, per the San Francisco Chronicle‘s Henry Schulman, which would fill their rotation to the bursting point. 

The Boston Red Sox, another oft-speculated Shields suitor, are “utterly disinterested,” according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. 

So who’s left? At present, Shields doesn’t appear willing to budge from his five-year, $100 million-plus demands, which squeezes out mid- to-low-level spenders like Arizona and the Miami Marlins.

High-rollers like the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers, meanwhile, have been MIA.

Still, someone‘s going to sign him…eventually.

Let’s run down the top three potential landing spots for the winter’s last unsigned star and handicap the odds that he’ll end up in each.

Milwaukee Brewers

From the moment Milwaukee sent Yovani Gallardo to the Texas Rangers for a trio of prospects, they became a realistic player for Shields, per CBS Sports‘ Mike Axisa:

[The] trade frees up a significant amount of cash for the Brewers. Their payroll has sat right around $100 million the last three years and their 2015 payroll was at $99 million before the Gallardo trade. They’re paying $4 million of his salary, so the $9 million they saved could go to a big ticket free agent, specifically James Shields, the only big ticket free agent left.

Shields’ asking price could break the Brewers’ bank, even with Gallardo’s $13 million off the books, but as Axisa points out, that’s what back-loaded contracts are for.

The National League Central is stacked, with the young and hungry Chicago Cubs and dangerous Pittsburgh Pirates nipping at the heels of the defending division champion St. Louis Cardinals.

If Milwaukee wants to insert itself into the mix, it’ll need to upgrade the roster. Shields looks like as good of an option as any.

Odds: 25 to 1

San Diego Padres

No one has been more active this offseason than the Padres, who have swung deals to revamp their outfield and beef up an anemic offense.

Their starting rotation is already a strength, anchored by budding studs Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner. But the old “you can never have too much pitching” bromide applies doubly in the cavernous confines of Petco Park.

The Friars have the chips to eingineer a trade, and an array of ace-level names—the Philadelphia Phillies’ Cole Hamels, plus Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals—are at least theoretically being dangled.

Or San Diego could hold onto its prospects and simply sign Shields, a durable innings-eater who might even make them favorites in the NL West.

That’s not pure speculation, either; Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports the Pads are “on [the] periphery of [the] Shields sweepstakes.” 

As with Milwaukee, it’d take some financial creativity. So far, new Padres GM A.J. Preller has been nothing if not creative. 

Odds: 10 to 1

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto shot out of the gate this winter, inking catcher Russell Martin and acquiring All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson from the Oakland A’s. 

Since then, things have been mostly quiet north of the border.

But it’s entirely possible the Jays, who figure to be a serious contender in the wide-open AL East, have another move up their feathered sleeve. 

Toronto, Rosenthal recently noted, is “not actively negotiating with Shields’ agent,” but is “discussing the pitcher internally.”

Shields would immediately become the Blue Jays’ No. 1 starter, headlining a rotation that features veteran workhorse Mark Buehrle, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and young right-handers Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison. 

A boomerang to the East would be a homecoming of sorts for Shields, who spent the first seven years of his career with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Will the prodigal son return, this time with a bird on his cap? We’ll find out…eventually.

Odds: 5 to 1

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted. 

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The MLB free-agent market now consists of Max Scherzer, James Shields and everyone else. But beyond Scherzer and Shields, there are still a handful of valuable players to be had. And as the market gets thinner, those assets will only become increasingly valuable as teams try to fill their remaining roster voids.

What follows is a list of the 10 most valuable free agents still available, based not only on projected 2015 performance but also on the current market at a given position. Colby Rasmus, for example, just became more valuable on Friday after Nori Aoki signed with the Giants, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.  

Here’s a look at the 10 free agents who will be most highly coveted in the weeks leading up to spring training.

Begin Slideshow

The calendar has changed over to 2015, yet there are still several noticeable names remaining in the MLB free-agent pool.

High-profile pitchers and potentially impactful position players can be had for the right price, and it’s shocking to see names like Max Scherzer and James Shields generating relatively little interest. Jon Lester’s signing should have accelerated the free-agent pitching market, but only the mid- and low-tier arms got scooped up.

In terms of bats, the most intriguing option left is probably Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. He’s just 19 years old and has an extraordinarily high ceiling. He’ll command a large contract, one certainly out of the ballpark for most teams.

The latest MLB rumors have much to do with Shields and Moncada, as well as a big-name pitcher who hasn’t done much in the bigs over the past several years. Read on to find out more.

James Shields

Shields is the No. 2 pitcher available behind Scherzer, but there should be more of a market for a guy capable of delivering over 200 innings and a sub-4.00 ERA. There’s at least one team with an interest in his right arm, reports Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal:

The Miami Marlins have acquired Mat Latos, Dan Haren and David Phelps this offseason, but Rosenthal notes that there are legitimate reasons for their interest:

Miami’s rotation has the potential to be lethal with Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Latos headlining the rotation when all three are healthy together, but adding Shields into the mix would make this one of the deepest rotations in baseball.

Throw in the fact that offensive upgrades Martin Prado, Dee Gordon and Mike Morse will drastically change the production of the lineup, and the Marlins are poised to compete in the National League East—even without Shields.

There’s a significant financial commitment to be made, though, as there’s a strong chance the 33-year-old will earn a five-year contract in the $100 million range.

Demands like these are likely why interest hasn’t picked up, as not many teams have the resources or philosophy to give that type of money to someone Shields’ age.

One would have to think he’ll sign soon. Spring training begins in mid- to late February, and a player of his caliber likely won’t remain on the sidelines while his colleagues are beginning serious preseason workouts.

Yoan Moncada

Moncada likely won’t make an impact in the bigs right away considering his young age, but that will not stop big spenders from throwing money his way. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports that one notoriously lavish organization will be in the running:

The Los Angeles Dodgers won’t be alone in their pursuit. Baseball America‘s Ben Badler expects eight teams to join them in the hunt. Interesting options include the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, all of which have already gone over the international spending bonus pool. They’re already at max penalty, so signing another player to a large deal won’t result in a more severe consequence.

For teams that have yet to incur penalties, Moncada might be out of their price range. That said, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo spoke to a scouting director who said that it’s a small price to pay for his absurd talents: “He’s worth going way over your international spending pool, in my opinion. This game is about talent and Moncada is the kind of talent worth the investment.”

A potential five-tool talent, Moncada has good speed, power and contact skills. He has plus arm strength and decent technique in the outfield. It’s only a matter of time before he takes the minors by storm and begins his climb to the majors.

Los Angeles seems like a strange fit given its wealth of outfielders. The Red Sox are in a similar situation. This could become a rare bidding war between the Yankees and Rays, both of which will have holes in the outfield in two years or so—about when Moncada should be ready.

Of course, anything can happen when bidding on international studs. Take Yoan Lopez, for example. Not many expected him to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks, yet the organization loved him enough to make a competitive offer.

Anything can happen with Moncada, but rest assured that he’ll be paid handsomely.

Johan Santana

Remember Johan Santana? He has fallen off the face of the baseball earth; he last pitched for the New York Mets in 2012.

Injuries have prevented him from reaching the majors since that point, yet he is still working on a comeback after suffering an Achilles injury with the Baltimore Orioles last season.

The two-time Cy Young winner is probably nothing more than a lefty reliever at this point in his career, but that hasn’t stopped the Yankees from showing interest, according to Dan Martin of the New York Post: “Scouts who saw him said he was relying more on guile than power. Nevertheless, the Yankees remain intrigued by the possibility of bringing in Santana and will ‘keep an eye on him,’ according to a source.”

During Santana’s last stint with the Mets, low velocity resulted in ineffectiveness. He made 21 starts but produced a 4.85 ERA (4.09 FIP) and a WHIP of 1.333—a career high for a season in which he logged at least 100 innings.

He’s an ideal buy-low candidate, however. Santana didn’t forget how to pitch, even if his velocity isn’t what it used to be. The worst-case scenario is that he either gets injured or performs poorly in the minors and gets released. The best-case scenario is that he joins a bullpen and pitches well, perhaps making a spot start here or there.

The Yankees have left-handed depth in Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve, so Santana would strictly provide depth if signed.

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn

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1. January Will Bring the Max Scherzer Thaw

Spring training is little more than a month away, which means the biggest marquee free agent this side of Jon Lester is about to sign with…

“The two sleepers all along for me were St. Louis and Washington,” one American League executive said of Max Scherzer’s possible destinations. “They’re just guesses. I can see him with the Yankees, too, or going back to Detroit.”

Happy New Year, in case I missed you the first time around, and please join our executive friend in the biggest guessing game remaining before pitchers and catchers report: Which club will push to the max for Max?

The Cardinals have not previously shown an appetite to spend the $200 million or so that Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, hinted at last month, but we can all agree (can’t we?) that Scherzer to St. Louis makes a ton of sense. It’s his hometown, the Cubs are closing the gap fast in the NL Central, and St. Louis’ rotation is working under potential storm clouds: Adam Wainwright (elbow), Michael Wacha (shoulder) and Jaime Garcia (you name it) all are recovering from health issues.

Talk surrounding the Nationals has quieted down from earlier this winter, when Jordan Zimmermann’s name was in the rumor mill. Plus, with outfielder Jayson Werth’s shoulder surgery keeping him sidelined for two or three months, Washington has other, more pressing issues.

But the relationship between Boras and the Lerner family—owner of the Nationals—is very good, and for that reason alone, you can’t completely discount Washington until Scherzer has signed elsewhere. Among the Boras clients with the Nats: Werth, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Danny Espinosa.

The Yankees expect CC Sabathia to be full-go when they report to Tampa later this month, but they have the two most important things where Scherzer is concerned: Money and need. Even if healthy, Sabathia is no longer what he once was and will turn 35 on July 21. And with luck, Masahiro Tanaka will pitch the entire season after rehabbing his elbow injury last summer.

But Tommy John surgery lurks in the background. Many pitchers with Tanaka’s injury (Chad Billingsley being one recent example) have tried the rehab route before having to undergo surgery. Depending on Tanaka to make 33 or 34 starts at this point is a risky plan for the Yankees.

The Tigers? General manager Dave Dombrowski said last month, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck, that there are no talks ongoing but “I guess that anything can happen.” The Tigers were rebuffed by Scherzer last spring when they made a six-year, $144 million offer. 

Given Boras’ track record, even in a Scherzer market that has been noticeably quiet, history has shown time and again that it is foolish to underestimate the agent. But where Detroit is concerned, it appears that the only way that works is if Scherzer’s market doesn’t develop as expected and he falls back to Detroit on a short-term deal.

As for Scherzer, he’s mostly stayed under the radar this winter, though he did pop up to say hello on Sunday:

Prediction: Yankees.

2. The Cardinals May Have a Big Move Left

As Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi over at Fox Sports reported last week, the Cardinals, in looking to upgrade their rotation, are checking into Scherzer on the free-agent market and Cole Hamels and David Price on the trade market. Hamels and Price make great sense, in that St. Louis lacks a strong left-hander. And Scherzer, as I mentioned above, would be quite the homecoming story.

Question is, how much money are the Cardinals willing to spend? Scherzer still seems like a seriously remote possibility, given that the fiscally responsible club drew a hard line even with a franchise icon like Albert Pujols a few winters ago. And not only did they live to tell about it, but the Cardinals have fared far better than Pujols since then.

That, combined with the fact that the most the Cardinals have ever paid for a pitcher is the five-year, $97.5 million extension they awarded Adam Wainwright two years ago, likely doesn’t foretell the eventual signing of Scherzer. Unless the Cards and Boras get awfully creative, of course.

As for Price, industry speculation still has him linked, to a degree, with Scherzer. The thinking is that the Tigers intended to try to sign Price longterm, and the fact that they haven’t done so yet has convinced some that Price, who can be a free agent next winter, isn’t interested in an extension with Detroit. Might the Tigers deal him? And if so, will they use the money to take another run at Scherzer?

The Cubs’ move to the precipice of contending with a slew of young talent, the signing of Lester and the deadly serious hire of Joe Maddon as their manager has added fuel to the NL Central Hot Stove fire this winter, intensifying speculation that the Cardinals will strike for another pitcher.

Of course, under general manager John Mozeliak, the Cards have continually moved at their own pace, made smart decisions and refused to be bullied into making a move out of concern for their rivals’ actions. It’s part of why they’ve won for so long.

Prediction: The Cards strike for Hamels, who makes a lot of sense. He’s affordable, and the Cardinals have the prospects.

3. Speculating on the Phillies

Finally, the Phillies moved Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers last month. Then they dealt outfielder Marlon Byrd, acquiring a solid prospect in right-handed pitcher Ben Lively. That was another small step toward an overdue and badly needed reconstruction.

Next up: Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels?

To be sure, those are two completely different situations. Hamels is owed $94 million over the next four years and is viewed as one of the game’s best left-handers. Howard, 35, is owed $60 million over the next two seasons and is viewed as a has-been who can’t do much more than hit homers.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro told 97.5 The Fanatic’s Mike Missanelli (h/t Matt Lombardo of NJ.com) that the club is better off without Howard going forward, and the Phillies know they’re going to have to eat a sizable portion of his contract. Clearly, the best thing for both sides is a deal before camp opens. The Phillies’ sluggishness to deal continues to be crippling at best and irresponsible at worst, given that they missed their window to jump-start a retooling by at least a year.

Predictions: For Hamels, see item No. 2 (though people close to him say he would love to pitch for the Dodgers). For Howard, look for the Orioles, who need bats and tend to work late during the winter under Dan Duquette (see Ubaldo Jimenez last year), to make a move.

4. James Shields‘ Prospects

Remember the days when marquee pitchers were in demand? There is no better illustration of the state of today’s game—how runs and hits have regressed back to early 1970s levels—than the fact that two of the three marquee free-agent pitchers—Shields and Scherzer—remain unsigned, while hitters were snapped up early this winter as eagerly as Tina Fey and Amy Poehler jokes at the Golden Globes.

While Scherzer and Shields continue to look for new homes, Victor Martinez (Tigers), Hanley Ramirez (Red Sox), Pablo Sandoval (Red Sox), Nelson Cruz (Mariners), Russell Martin (Blue Jays), Melky Cabrera (White Sox), Chase Headley (Yankees), Michael Cuddyer (Mets), Alex Rios (Royals), Adam LaRoche (White Sox) and even Yasmany Tomas (Diamondbacks) all have signed.

So what happens with Shields? Rosenthal reported on Jan. 4 that he supposedly has a five-year, $110 million offer on the table (though the team has not yet been identified, so no guarantees that such an offer even exists).

If the Marlins deal Dan Haren, who prefers pitching for a West Coast team at this stage of his career, there could be a fit in Miami (financially, though, that’s another question). Boston and Arizona both expressed interest at various points this winter. The Giants did as well, before they signed Jake Peavy. Now? Crickets. At least, publicly where Shields is concerned.

Prediction: Rockies.

5. The Next Market to Flourish

Though top-flight, late-innings men David Robertson (White Sox), Andrew Miller (Yankees), Pat Neshek (Astros) and Luke Gregerson (Astros) struck gold earlier in the winter, several free-agent closers (or setup men) remain unsigned: Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Casey Janssen and Alexi Ogando are all there for the taking.

6. Don’t Tread on Alexi Ogando

Ogando’s agent, the highly respected Larry Reynolds, took to Twitter the other day to defend the reliever from the rumor mill:

7. Don’t Tread on the Hall of Fame Voters

One quick follow-up from last week’s announcement that Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Fame:

I find it interesting that, just two years after the Baseball Writers’ Association of America was roasted for not voting anyone into the Hall of Fame for just the eighth time ever, voters put four men into the Hall—the largest group in 60 years, since 1955.

Was the system broken two years ago, as many claimed? No.

Is it broken now, as many claim in the aftermath of steroids guys like Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire being shut out? No.

I don’t know how the steroids class ultimately will fare—Bonds, McGwire, Roger Clemens, etc.—but I also know this: It is an unprecedented chapter in baseball history. There is absolutely no harm in continuing to take time to sort that era out.

Look, the system is not perfect. No system ever is. But since the first Hall of Fame election in 1936, it’s worked pretty doggone well. The baseball Hall of Fame is easily the best Hall of any sport. And part of that is because it is so difficult to get elected.

And if you think voters today are wrong-headed on some issues, how about this for a history lesson: No Hall of Famer has ever been elected unanimously. That is crazy, of course, but it is a fact.

In 1966, 20 voters did not cast a ballot for Ted Williams (out of 302). In 1936, 11 voters did not cast a ballot for Babe Ruth (out of 226). In 1962, 36 voters bypassed Jackie Robinson (out of 160).

There will always be issues with voting, no matter who is charged with doing it. And you know what? Differing viewpoints and dissenting opinions only make the process stronger. As with many other things, the process can get messy. But in the case of the baseball Hall, it has worked and it continues to work.

8. Cue the Theme from The Odd Couple

Bruce Bochy and Tim Flannery played together for years, then worked together as manager and third base coach for many more years. They were teammates for one World Series run in San Diego in 1984, they were manager and coach for another World Series run in San Diego in 1998, and then they teamed up for three World Series rings in San Francisco in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

So where does that leave them? Well, for now, featured in what I’m sure will be one terrific MLB Network Presents feature that will debut Tuesday night on the network. I know my DVR is set. For an advance peek, check this out:

9. In the Spirit of the Game

Dennis Gilbert has been many things throughout a life dedicated to baseball: agent, special assistant to White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, prospective owner (oh, what fun it would be if he ever gets a team). But the role in which he’s touched the most lives, easily, comes this Saturday night in Los Angeles, when the Professional Baseball Scouts’ Foundation hosts its 12th annual charity fundraiser, “In the Spirit of the Game.”

Gilbert started the event more than a decade ago as a way to raise money for indigent scouts who were down on their luck. You won’t find anybody who loves the game more than the scouts, who don’t make much money but are so important to the game’s soul.

The event has become one of the biggest of the offseason, with a silent auction before the program that, in the past, has featured items such as dresses from Marilyn Monroe, guitars signed by the Rolling Stones and autographed memorabilia from Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and more. It’s a who’s who from the baseball world—and, given the Los Angeles location, Hollywood. Two years ago, I bumped into Bo Derek.

This year, Dusty Baker will receive the Tommy Lasorda Managerial Achievement Award, Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Jim Palmer, George Brett, Goose Gossage, Brooks Robinson and Dave Winfield are scheduled to appear, and retiring Commissioner Bud Selig will be honored.

If you’re in the Los Angeles area and would like to attend, here’s the information. If not, check it out on MLB Network television later this month.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.

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As you’d expect from a Cy Young-caliber pitcher with baseball’s most powerful agent, Max Scherzer has some rather large contract demands that he doesn’t seem interested in backing down from.

This ought to be just fine by fellow free-agent ace James Shields. For the longer Scherzer waits for teams to meet his price, the more likely Shields is to get teams to meet his own price.

Thanks to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, we have an idea of what “Shields’ price” entails these days:

Though the front-runners for Shields are not known, a number of executives tell FOX Sports they expect the free-agent right-hander to land a contract of at least five years, $100 million.

Two execs say it is their understanding that Shields has a five-year, $110 million offer and is looking for an even higher guarantee…

If so, here’s the situation on the Shields market: The floor is $100 million, the price to beat is $110 million, and, as far as the 33-year-old right-hander is concerned, the price to match is even higher.

Now, Rosenthal did report Monday night that Shields doesn’t want to play for the team that’s offered $110 million. That goes against the advice of the executives Rosenthal spoke to for his initial report, as they indicated Shields would be overplaying his hand in rejecting $110 million to seek more money.

But if Shields—who’s coming off a 3.21 ERA across 227 innings with the Kansas City Royals in 2014—is indeed holding out for more money, it’s hard to blame him. His market has put him in a position to try and up the ante, and Scherzer‘s waiting game could be just what Shields needs to pull it off.

At the outset of the offseason, there was no doubt Shields was in a group with Scherzer and Jon Lester among the best starting pitchers on the market. Projections for his eventual contract, however, were relatively subdued.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com predicted Shields would get $110 million over five years, but an agent and a general manager put Shields in the $100 million range. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors aimed lower at $95 million. FanGraphs‘ crowd-sourced projections aimed even lower at $90 million. Yours truly aimed even lower still, pegging Shields at $80 million over four years, with an option for a fifth.

As such, a $100 million contract for Shields looked more like the best-case scenario than the likely scenario. That Shields is now expected to fetch at least $100 million tells us the situation has changed.

And looking between the lines, it’s not hard to deduce how.

For starters, there was Lester signing a six-year, $155 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. That was the high end of what he was projected for, which always had a chance to benefit Shields.

It would seem that it has. After Lester set the market for elite pitching at around $26 million per year, it’s no surprise that Shields has gone from being a borderline $20 million-per-year starter to a more ironclad $20-22 million-per-year starter. 

It also helps, though, that Shields apparently has the right kind of market working for him.

We know from ESPN’s Jim Bowden that the Miami Marlins are interested, and another thing Rosenthal reported Monday night is that the Arizona Diamondbacks are also interested. It’s noteworthy that Rosenthal thinks that’s an indication Shields’ market isn’t actually at $100 million, but just because Arizona can’t afford that doesn’t mean other teams in the mix can’t.

And that could be quite the list. According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, the Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, and San Francisco Giants are among the heavier hitters that have been linked to Shields. Exactly which of them, if any, have offers out to Shields is unknown, but now you have an idea about the strength of Shields’ market.

So it makes sense that Shields now seems guaranteed to get at least nine figures. Lester’s contract helped push his market in that direction, and the strength of said market has taken things from there.

Of course, Shields will need a bit more leverage if he wants to push his value over the high offer of $110 million. That’s where Scherzer can help, and all he has to do is keep demanding what he wants.

On that note, let’s refer back to what Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com tweeted last month:

Admittedly, it’s the kind of demand that sounds nuts at first.

But then, the existence of Clayton Kershaw‘s contract means there’s precedent for a $200 million pitcher. It also happens that FanGraphs WAR says only Kershaw has been better than Scherzer since 2013.

Also, leave it to Scott Boras to tell it like it is.

“Last year he turned down a deal for seven years and $160 million,” the super-agent said at the winter meetings to a group of reporters that included ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. “He looked at the markets. We have a new revenue structure in the game. We’re well over $9 billion [in revenues] and he really wanted to have the opportunity for choice…Going into this, we knew there really wasn’t going to be any other pitcher who would impact his free-agent pursuit.”

At the least, Scherzer should have no problem topping Lester’s $155 million. But it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up getting his $200 million. He has a strong case for it, and Boras does tend to get what he wants for his biggest stars even if it means a lot of waiting (see Fielder, Prince and Holliday, Matt).

Of course, while the list of teams that could use Scherzer is long, the list of teams that can afford him at a Lester-like price if short. The list of teams that can afford him at $200 million is even shorter. If he refuses to budge from that demand, teams that want him could give up and consider other options.

Namely Shields, who’s an obvious plan B in a sea of plan Zs. And in the end, that could be his ticket to pushing his price well over $100 million.

If the market for Shields is already strong enough to produce a $110 million offer, it stands to reason it will only be stronger if teams that are currently prioritizing Scherzer start prioritizing Shields instead.

That would either add more serious buyers to a market that’s already strong or enhance the interest of the serious buyers who also have their eyes on Scherzer. Either way, Shields’ people will be able to take the present bidding war for his services to the next level.

To boot, it’s not like Shields’ people don’t have the arguments they need to justify doing so.

Though Shields, Scherzer and Lester look similarly productive over the last two years, focusing on workload and run prevention allow Shields to stand alone on a slightly longer timeline:

Note: “ERA+” is ERA adjusted for parks and leagues on a scale where anything over 100 is above average.

Working against Shields is his age and mileage. Being 33 years old is not ideal at a time when, as Jeff Todd of MLBTR noted, teams are valuing youth like never before. And though Shields’ eight straight 200-inning seasons paint him as a workhorse, it’s natural to wonder if they’ve taken a toll on his arm.

However, it is possible to downplay these red flags.

Shields’ people can use his recent velocity increase to argue he’s only getting stronger. And as Paul Casella highlighted at Sports on Earth, Greg Maddux and Mark Buehrle can be pointed to as recent examples of pitchers who followed heavy early-career workloads with success deep into their 30s.

And hey, it doesn’t hurt that there’s a case for Shields as a missing link kind of player. In the words of MLB.com’s Mike Bauman:

But the thing about Shields has been that his value to a club has not been measured only through pitching statistics. With the Tampa Bay Rays, and then with Kansas City, he has played a leading role in the transformation of not only a rotation, but a team.

The above arguments could start sounding more and more appealing as spring training and Opening Day draw nearer. And even if the bidding for Shields pushes his value to $115 or even $120 million, that’s still a long, long way off from what Scherzer is asking for.

Mind you, none of this should be taken as an endorsement for meeting Shields’ demands. Despite his merits, I still like my initial projection as a fair price for Shields. Further, SI.com’s Jay Jaffe can vouch that spending even as much as $100 million on Shields would be a risky venture.

Nonetheless, it sounds like Shields could sign a contract for at least that much right now if he wanted to. And as long as Scherzer keeps insisting on a price few can pay, Shields has a shot at selling his own ambitious asking price as a discount.

Never mind “Big Game James.” By the time this offseason is over, “Make It Rain James” could be a more appropriate nickname.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Max Scherzer is the biggest pitching prize still on the free-agent market, but there is another starter still without a team who is due for a big payday soon.  Former Kansas City Royal James Shields is a little old at 33, but he has had an impressive career and should have plenty of suitors.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported earlier this week that he was told by two executives that Shields has a five-year, $110 million offer on the table.

But in Shields’ case, the question is not whether or not he is a good pitcher, but whether he is worth such a huge contract.

Considering that he is going into his age-33 season, he would be 37 years old while still under contract.  That is very old for a pitcher, especially one with as much mileage on his arm as Shields.  Only four other pitchers accumulated more innings than Shields from 2007 to 2012, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and it is questionable if he can sustain that durability throughout the duration of his contract.

One positive statistic for Shields going forward is that he hasn’t lost velocity on his fastball as he has gotten older.  In fact, his velocity has increased every year since 2011, according to Fangraphs.  This indicates that he might have what it takes to be a workhorse deep into his 30s.

Another thing that needs to be taken into account is the other big-time arms on the market this offseason.  Max Scherzer is reportedly looking for at least $200 million, and Jon Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Cubs in early December.  Shields is not quite as good as either of those guys, but his stats show that he is at least in the conversation.  With that in mind, $110 million for Shields might be a bargain considering what other aces on the market have signed for.

It also needs to be noted that the team that eventually signs Shields is getting not only a quality pitcher but one who can transform an entire pitching staff.  When he was traded to the Royals before the 2013 season, they were a hopeless franchise.  Only two years later, they were playing in the World Series.

Shields changed the culture of the rotation, infusing the mindset of taking the ball every fifth day and competing as much as possible.  The Royals‘ pitching is what led them deep into October, and Shields was a big reason why.

So the intangibles have to be considered in addition to his statistics.  Not only is he likely to give his new team 30 to 35 starts and over 200 innings per season, but he also helps improve the people around him.

In conclusion, the $110 million rumor is not overly outrageous.  Realistically, it is way too much for any player, but in an age when baseball teams are making more and more money, Shields’ body of work should net him at least $100 million.

If Lester is worth $155 million and Scherzer is hoping for $200 million, then it doesn’t seem too far-fetched that Shields will sign at least a $100 million contract.

He has proven in his career to be one of the most durable workhorses in the league, and whoever signs him will drastically improve their pitching staff.

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Well more than two months have peeled off Major League Baseball’s offseason calendar, a hot-stove season that has been as active and stunning as any in recent memory. 

Yet it is not finished. Two big-money free agents still swim around untouched—Max Scherzer and James Shields—while several clubs with World Series visions remain a player away from being legitimate threats in October.

The rumor mills around Scherzer and Shields are certain to soon churn heavily, and any number of the teams in need of another acquisition could greatly use their services. Then again, not all of them need to stabilize or boost their rotations. Aside from those aces, position players remain on the market, available in trades or for a relatively modest free-agent fee.

How these teams plan to finish out their offseasons is still unclear, but make no mistake here: If they plan to win it all, they will need one more headline-making move.

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