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Prior to the 2014 MLB season, hardly anyone would have predicted the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles to be playing for the American League pennant. Now, just four wins separate both teams from the World Series.

How big is Kansas City’s run so far? So huge that the Google search for “Royals” now comes up with more results about Kansas City than Lorde. That’s what a run can do for a team with just four postseason wins.

For Baltimore, it’s facing a team coming off a dominant four-game playoff winning streak and a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels. Even against the gritty Royals, the Orioles have confidence after downing three straight Cy Young winners and the Detroit Tigers.

With Game 1 set to begin Friday night, below is the full schedule and prediction for the American League Championship Series.

ALCS Prediction

When the postseason gets underway, pitching is one of the most crucial components to making a deep run. Both the Orioles and Royals were able to contain potent lineups in the division series, but it’s Kansas City that has the more complete rotation.

The one man at the top is none other than James Shields. Since acquiring Big Game James prior to the 2013 season, he has produced stellar starts nearly every time he’s toed the rubber.

James, who will be the starter in Game 1, according to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star (h/t Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com), went six innings against the Angels in Game 3 of the ALDS, surrendering just two runs on six hits with six strikeouts. More impressively, the bullpen behind him can shut down even high-powered lineups, per MLB Stat of the Day:

If Shields, Yordano Ventura or any other starter falters, the bullpen will be there to pick them up in this series. Equipped with solid arms like Wade Davis and Greg Holland, Kansas City has a massive advantage at the end of games.

On the other side, the Orioles pitching staff is often overlooked in the American League. But after limiting the Tigers to three runs or fewer in two games, they were able to make a statement in the division series.

Chris Tillman and Bud Norris were strong on the mound in Games 1 and 3, respectively, giving Baltimore a chance to pull off two wins. Catcher Caleb Joseph spoke about his battery mates, per Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com:

We know our starters are really good, and they know they’re really good. They’ve really carried us for a long time now. They’re a close-knit group and they do certain things that I know a lot of other teams don’t do. They’re very into each other’s work. They participate in each others’ bullpens and stuff like that. It’s one of the small things that people don’t see behind the lights that’s helped keep them together. If they give us quality starts, we like our chances.

Along with the stout staffs, both teams also have plenty of pop in the lineup. But one man with plenty of experience in the postseason might be the difference for the Orioles in this matchup.

Nelson Cruz has been one of the best playoff power hitters in the MLB over the last several seasons, proving that point again with two homers in the ALDS. ESPN Stats & Info puts his recent numbers in perspective:

Currently, Cruz is tied with Carlos Beltran for ninth all time in postseason homers. With just two more dingers against the Royals, he would move into a tie with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle for fifth—pretty elite company to say the least.

All things equal, the Orioles lineup will be the difference-maker in this series. Both franchises have proven they can step up in clutch situations, but Baltimore simply has more firepower with Cruz, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at the plate.

Prediction: Orioles win in six games.

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Just a handful of games remain in the 2014 MLB season, and nearly every team knows its fate at this point. A few franchises are still holding out hope to make a late charge into the postseason, but the bubble has popped for others.

Strong starts for the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves weren’t sustained, as both are on the outside looking in. Then there are the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics, who are still in a dogfight for a wild-card spot.

On the other side, the playoff positioning can still be shaken up over the weekend. The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are hoping to clinch the NL Central, with the title still hanging in the balance.

Rather than delaying the process until it becomes official, here is the full schedule and predictions for the wild-card showdowns.

Wild Card Predictions

AL Wild Card: Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals

The Mariners are still holding out hope of making it into the final wild-card spot, but this matchup seems destined to happen.

Oakland has been scuffling ever since the trade deadline, but it wouldn’t be in this position without Jon Lester in the rotation. If these two teams square off, he will have to outduel another pitcher known for stepping up in the clutch.

James Shields has been phenomenal this season, going 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 180 strikeouts. Big Game James is always a consistent force on the mound for the Royals, as Dave Holtzman of Fox Sports Kansas City notes:

It’s not determined at this point that Shields or Lester will toe the rubber, but it would offer a must-watch game.

If Kansas City’s offense can produce a few runs at home, Shields has the ability to close the door. Thanks to bats like Alex Gordon and the speed of Lorenzo Cain, this team has what it takes to contend in the playoffs.

Prediction: Royals win, 4-2.

NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

Both of these teams are confirmed for the postseason, but the Pirates might not have to face a win-and-in situation. For now, we’ll assume that Pittsburgh and San Francisco will battle for the spot, with the Pirates getting home-field advantage.

Pittsburgh comes in to the contest as one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 12 of the last 15 games, including two series wins over the Brewers and Braves. Manager Clint Hurdle spoke about the team’s resilience, per Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

I’ve been in situations where you can tell you just aren’t good enough. That thought never crossed my mind this year. The beauty of it is that, on paper, there probably are a lot of teams that look better than us. But I continue to remind these guys that we don’t play on paper. We get to go play on grass. That’s what we do well. We’re a good team. They like being on the team.

The Giants have postseason experience. Not just a few guys who have been in the playoffs, but leaders like Buster Posey and Bruce Bochy, who were part of the 2010 and 2012 World Series-winning teams.

But what the Pirates have is a hunger and one of the best position players in all of baseball. Since his return from a rib injury, Andrew McCutchen has been a catalyst for the team, as ESPN Stats & Info points out:

It will no doubt be a battle that stretches until the final innings, but expect the Pirates to secure a berth into the division series. Thanks to an explosive offense and one of the best recent records in baseball coming in, Pittsburgh will be too much for San Francisco.

Prediction: Pirates 6, Giants 4

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The last time the Kansas City Royals made the playoffs, Back to the Future was the No. 1 movie in America.

Looking back, KC fans probably wish they’d shoved Marty McFly aside, hopped in Doc Brown’s DeLorean and set the coordinates for 2014.

Because only now, 29 excruciating years later, are the Royals finally poised for a return trip to the postseason.

With their 1-0 win over the New York Yankees Friday night, coupled with the Detroit Tigers‘ 8-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Royals increased their lead in the American League Central to two games. 

There’s still time for a meltdown. But the safe money is on Kansas City breaking its protracted playoff drought rather than the faithful’s hearts. 

The goal isn’t simply to make the playoffs, though. It’s to make some noise once they get there. To do that, the Royals will need a few experienced big-game players to step up.

Those players are in short supply in the Royals’ locker room.

Only four members of Kansas City’s roster have performed under the bright October lights: second baseman Omar Infante, outfielder Raul Ibanez and pitchers Wade Davis and James Shields.

The likeliest candidate to assume big-game stud status is the last name on that list.

In fact, Shields flashed his credentials Friday night against the Yankees, tossing 8.1 scoreless frames, allowing three hits and striking out six.

“I think that is by far the best game he has thrown all year,” Royals manager Ned Yost said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). “He was surgical with his stuff. He had everything going.”

Overall, Shields has posted a 3.23 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 200.1 innings pitched.

The 32-year-old right-hander doesn’t boast a sterling postseason resume. He owns a 4.98 ERA in six playoff appearances, all with the Tampa Bay Rays.

The point, though, is that he’s been there. He’s endured the pressure, felt the eyeballs of the nation searing into his arm.

When Kansas City dealt for Shields in December 2012, sending top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay, it was a win-now move—a rarity in KC.

The Royals didn’t win right away, at least not the division. They did, however, enjoy their first winning season since 2003 and stayed in the hunt deep into September. 

“I helped out a lot more with the run we had at the end of last season,” Shields told The Topeka Capital-Journal‘s Kevin Haskin. “These guys know how to win big baseball games now and what it takes to win games all the way to the end. We’ve just got to stick to our process, stick to what we’re doing and have fun with it.”

That’s a great line, and there’s truth in it. But Shields surely knows that the burden is on his shoulders to be that guy in the clubhouse—the one with the swagger, the knowledge and the poise.

As Haskin puts it:

Does [postseason experience] matter? It could. Maybe when pressure mounts in September to secure a postseason berth. Or, during the postseason when players must cope with additional attention — from media, from fans, and from family and friends looking to obtain tickets.

The Royals still have to qualify before they worry about hooking up their long-lost uncle with seats. They’re getting close, though. The brass ring is within reach.

“We never had a winning record around here since what? Forever?” outfielder Jarrod Dyson asked rhetorically, per Haskin.

Maybe not that long, Jarrod. But you’d need a time machine to get back there. 

Or you could just follow James Shields. He knows the way.

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As one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, it is no wonder that teams will be trying to figure out ways to acquire James Shields before the trade deadline. 

The former Rays starter was dealt to the Kansas City Royals before the 2013 season for a package that included highly-touted outfield prospect Wil Myers. That season, Shields finished with the most innings pitched in the league at 228.2 and posted a solid 3.15 ERA.

With a solid start to the 2014 season, Shields has become a hot name heading into the MLB trade season.

One team that is interested is the Toronto Blue Jays, who have one of the best offenses in baseball but an inconsistent rotation. While there is a possibility they will make a big move for Jeff Samardzija, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports notes that Shields is the more likely option:

There’s been a lot of Blue Jays buzz regarding their potential to acquire Cubs star Jeff Samardzija, but as things stand Toronto expects to focus more this summer on “rental” pitchers, as it wants to avoid gutting its farm system.

With rentals the expected preference, Royals star James Shields is seen as a possible Jays target should he hit the trade market.

Heyman also quoted a source from the Blue Jays organization who said, “We can’t keep trading our prospects.” This explains why the “rental” route makes more sense at this point in the year.

Of course, teams only become sellers at the trade deadline when they are virtually eliminated from contention. Unfortunately for Toronto and anyone else interested in Shields, the Royals do not fit this description after a red-hot start to June.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports points out that this hurts the chances that the veteran pitcher will be dealt:

Still, it remains something to keep an eye on going forward, in case Kansas City starts to falter down the stretch. Considering Shields is on his way to his eighth year in a row of 200 innings pitched and double-digit wins, there would be an immediate bidding war when and if he becomes available.

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Losers of two straight games, the Kansas City Royals turn to staff ace James Shields to get back on the winning track against his former team, the Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday night at Kauffman Stadium.

After taking the first two games this weekend against the Cleveland Indians during a wrap-around home series, the Royals dropped the final two games by a combined 19-3 score. Though still early in the season, these are the types of results that remind fans of just how downtrodden a baseball town Kansas City has been for the better part of two decades.

Just last year, the Royals endured a twelve-game losing streak in the season’s opening month and did not record a home victory until May 3. Kansas City is 6-4 at home in 2013.

Two-game losing streaks are commonplace throughout a 162-game marathon of a Major League Baseball season; even the best teams can’t avoid them. The key, however, is not allowing two to become three or three to become six and ultimately shaking a team’s psyche and daily approach to the game.

Kansas City’s Achilles heel over the years has been starting pitching, specifically lacking the type of pitcher who is capable of taking the mound in the precise situation that tonight’s game offers. Though it cost them their top prospect (outfielder Wil Myers) in a trade during the offseason, the Royals acquired Shields for moments like this.

Shields can’t expect to go out and perform like his usually reliable self tonight against the Rays because it simply will not be good enough. The Royals will demand much more out of their new No. 1 starting pitcher.

Kansas City needs Shields to stamp out the memories of last season’s early troubles and to allow fans to reflect on just how deep this city’s baseball roots actual are.

For the Royals and Shields, tonight’s game is as big as it gets.

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The Kansas City Royals finally got their ace, acquiring right-handed pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for prospects Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard. Although Shields was the centerpiece of the deal for the Royals, it’s Davis who could provide the most long-term value. 

The Royals have been widely criticized by those who believe they severely overpaid. Baseball America listed Myers, Montgomery and Odorizzi among the team’s top-five 2012 prospects. 

In his analysis of the deal, ESPN.com’s Keith Law crushed Kansas City GM Dayton Moore, stating, “The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job.”

Although the Royals hope to win now, the true impact of the trade may not be fully known for years. However, it may not end up as slanted as some believe. Davis has the kind of talent and opportunity that could change opinions.

Shields has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the past six seasons. During that time he’s averaged nearly 14 wins and 221.2 innings per year. His presence will undoubtedly help a Royals rotation that hasn’t had a pitcher win more than 12 games since Zack Greinke won 16 in 2009.

Despite his pedigree, Royals fans shouldn’t expect Shields to have a long tenure in Kansas City. He has a maximum of two years and $21 million left on his current deal. An extension seems unlikely given the Royals’ finances.

Greinke, who is listed by Baseball Reference as having the closest similarity score to Shields, just signed a six-year, $147 million contract. This suggests that Shields might expect a good chunk of change once he becomes a free agent if he continues pitching even close to his current level.

It’s hard to imagine the Royals being a major player on Shields if he sought a contract of any significance. They’ve been at or near the bottom of annual MLB payrolls for more than a decade, according to StevetheUmp.com (stats obtained through the Associated Press).

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reported that owner David Glass is being maxed out this season by pushing the team’s entire payroll to $80 million. Financial flexibility does not appear to be on the horizon.

The key to the trade may very well be Davis. He is relatively cheap and appears to have recently turned the corner in becoming an above-average pitcher.

The 27-year-old was a mediocre starter for Tampa Bay in 2010-2011. Although he had a combined 23 wins, his 4.27 ERA and 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings were nothing special.

Davis seems to have found himself in 2012. Because of a stacked starting rotation, the Rays pitched him exclusively in relief. He went 3-0 in 54 games with a 2.43 ERA. More impressive were his 11.1 strikeouts versus 6.1 hits allowed per nine innings.

Davis throws a fastball, slider, curve and changeup. His 2012 average fastball velocity spiked to a career-high 93.7 mph according to FanGraphs.com.

Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star reported that Davis believes his improvement was because of a change in approach. The Royals’ new hurler explained, “I learned to put my foot on the gas pedal from the get-go rather than working into a rhythm.”

Despite his new-found success as a reliever, Davis will be a starter for the Royals. According to Grathoff, his new pitching coach, Dave Eiland, believes he is more than up to the task. Because of what he learned in the bullpen last season.

“He’s a big guy with some power. He needs to go out there and put the foot on the accelerator from the first pitch on. He has the ability to do that. He needs to come right at hitters because he can control any lineup in baseball with that stuff.”

If Davis carries his success as a reliever back to the rotation, the Royals will have a steal. He is due to make just $7.6 million over the remaining two years of his current contract. After that, the team holds annual team options that could keep him in Kansas City for an additional three seasons for a combined $25 million. Compared to the contract just signed by Greinke, such numbers seem very reasonable.

Count ESPN.com’s Buster Olney among those who believe Davis is the key to the trade. Speaking about Davis’ development, he said, “The Royals now become a place of opportunity, to apply all that he learned about himself last summer.”

The Royals may have given up a lot of young talent, but they got back the same in Davis. If he continues to develop he will wind up being the team’s key to this deal and potentially provide the long-term impact pitcher they have wanted for so long.

Statistics via BaseballReference

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Numerous reports have indicated the willingness of the Kansas City Royals to trade top prospect Wil Myers this offseason for pitching help. The Kansas City Star’s Bob Dutton wrote that Kansas City is willing to hold off on a trade until it feels it has found the right fit. But if it has to trade a prospect like Myers, its best move is to obtain a top-flight pitching prospect instead of a veteran starter.

Myers is an outfielder who will be 22 years old next season, and he is one of the most highly regarded prospects in baseball. The former third-round draft pick exploded in 2012, hitting a combined .314 with 37 home runs and 109 RBI between the Royals’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Any number of teams would love to add his projectable bat to their lineup.

Dutton already speculated that Myers could help pry southpaw Jon Lester from the Boston Red Sox, and FoxSports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the prospect could bring in right-handed starter James Shields from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Sources tell me and @jonmorosi that #Royals may be at critical stage in decision on whether to trade Myers for an SP such as #Rays’ Shields.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2012

While both Lester and Shields are established major league starters who eat innings for breakfast, they would individually be a poor return on any deal involving Myers. Including team options, Shields has two years and $21 million left on his current deal, while Lester has two years and $24.625 million remaining.

If the Royals acquired either Shields or Lester, they might get good production during the next two seasons, but would be hard-pressed to retain either pitcher after they hit free agency. Two years of a veteran starting pitcher is not a good enough return on a prospect like Myers. 

Despite having traded for starter Ervin Santana and re-signing free agent Jeremy Guthrie, the Royals are a young team and are not looking like serious 2013 playoff contenders. Adding a young pitching prospect, whom they could control at a moderate financial cost for the next five or six seasons, would be a much more fiscally sound move and potentially give them a wider window of opportunity to contend in the future.

The two trade partners the Royals should give the most consideration to are the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves.

Arizona’s 2011 first-round draft pick, right-hander Trevor Bauer, of whom ESPN’s Buster Olney recently wrote had fallen out of favor and was likely to be traded, would be an ideal target. He went 12-2 with a 2.42 ERA in the minors last season. Despite struggling during a four-game stint in the majors, he has the talent and intelligence to develop into an ace on a team like the Royals.

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported that Arizona signed free-agent starter Brandon McCarthy to a two-year deal. Adding McCarthy to Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs gives the team the surplus of pitching next season that would make it easier to think about trading Bauer.

FoxSport’s Jon Paul Morosi recently reported that the Diamondbacks could trade outfielders Jason Kubel or Justin Upton. If that were to happen, exchanging Bauer for an impact outfield prospect like Myers would be a good deal for Arizona because of the need to find a replacement and because of the same financial control they would be able to exert.

The Braves would be the Royals’ other likely trading partner if a swap of prospects were to be explored because they could offer right-hander Julio Teheran in such a deal.

Teheran has pitched professionally for five years, but will only turn 22 later this winter. He was ranked as Baseball America’s fifth-best prospect in 2012 and has already had a couple of brief stints with Atlanta. Possessing a big fastball, he is projected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come.

The Braves also have pitching depth, and adding Myers to an outfield that already boasts Jason Heyward and newly signed B.J. Upton could be enough reason to have them consider such a trade. Atlanta also has a modest payroll that would make a cheap, young impact player like Myers a desirable option.

The Royals should absolutely look into trading Wil Myers if they think they can improve their team in other ways. However, they must look at what their potential return can give them in the long-term, and not just in the next year or two. Gambling on a young pitcher who could turn into the ace they need could be risky, but the potential reward should be tantalizing for a team that is hungry to become a winner.

Statistics via BaseballReference

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When your starting pitching staff loses 69 games and posts a 5.01 ERA in a season, you know you have upgrades to make over the winter.

Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore can vouch, and he’s been a busy bee ever since the 2012 season came to a close. He’s already shored up his club’s rotation for 2013 by trading for Ervin Santana and re-signing Jeremy Guthrie, and he’s not done yet.

James Shields could be next. Or maybe Jon Lester. It depends on what Moore wants to do with the top prospect at his disposal.

The word from Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star is that Moore wants to add at least one more impact arm to the Royals’ rotation, and the best way for him to do that may be to trade top outfield prospect Wil Myers.

This would be the same Wil Myers who was named minor league player of the year by Baseball America. In 134 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Myers hit 37 home runs and compiled a .987 OPS. 

Royals fans would probably just as soon see Myers start the season with the big club in 2013, as it’s not like anybody would miss Jeff Francoeur out in right field. Myers looks ready, so why trade him now?

Precisely because the team’s need for starting pitching really is that dire, and the reality is that it’s not every day you can trade a prospect for a top-flight starting pitcher. 

As such, the idea of the Royals trading Myers has to be taken seriously. And for the time being, Shields and Lester have to be considered Kansas City’s two best (or at least most realistic) trade targets.

Between the two of them, the Royals are much better off trading for Shields.

Now, Shields is a little older than Lester. He’ll turn 31 in December, whereas Lester will only be 29 in January. When it comes to pitchers, a two-year age gap is no small deal.

The trade-off is that Shields would be a few million bucks cheaper than Lester. Including the $12 million club option on Shields’ contract for 2014, he’s due to make $21 million over the next two seasons. Including his $13 million option for 2014, Lester is due to make just under $25 million over the next two seasons.

Furthermore, the numbers say Shields is getting better as a pitcher, whereas Lester may be getting worse.

Shields hit rock bottom when he posted a 5.18 ERA and gave up a league-high 34 home runs in 2010, but he bounced back to post a 2.82 ERA and pitch 11 complete games in 2011. This past year, he had a 3.52 ERA, and he gave the Rays close to 230 innings.

While he wasn’t as dominant in 2012 as he was in 2011, the sabermetric stats suggest that Shields himself didn’t do anything differently.

Per FanGraphs, Shields’ FIP and xFIP—two stats that evaluate pitchers by things only they can control, such as strikeouts and walks—remained steady from where they were in 2011. His regression had much to do with an elevated BABIP, which could have been partly the result of an elevated ground-ball rate, and an elevated ground-ball rate is nothing to complain about.

Lester, on the other hand, has seen his ERA rise each of the last two years. Simultaneously, his strikeout rate has declined. 

Fewer strikeouts means more balls in play, and that means more hits. It’s therefore no wonder not just that his ERA has risen, but that his FIP and xFIP have risen in the last two years as well. He wasn’t as bad in 2012 as his 4.82 ERA suggests he was, but he didn’t come anywhere close to the level he was pitching at in 2010, when he won 19 games with a 3.25 ERA.

The Royals are already gambling on the notion that they can fix what ailed Santana in 2012 and that Guthrie will continue to pitch like he did in the latter half of the season rather than the first half. The last thing they want to do is take on another gamble, hence the reason Lester should be a no-go.

If the Royals were to add Shields, he’d take his place as the ace of the staff ahead of Guthrie and Santana. Seeing as how the Royals opened the 2012 season with Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez as their top three starters, Moore will have fulfilled his obligation to provide the club’s starting rotation with an upgrade.

From the way things are looking right now, a rotation led by Shields, Guthrie and Santana would give the Royals better starting pitching than the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians, for whatever that’s worth.

The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, though, would still be in better shape than the Royals. Not many teams can match Detroit’s trio of Justin Verlander, Doug Fister and Max Scherzer. The White Sox have two aces in Jake Peavy and Chris Sale, and they have an assortment of solid starters lined up behind them.

The bright side for the Royals is that they don’t have any catching up to do to be on Chicago’s level. The Royals won 12 of the 18 games they played against the White Sox in 2012, outscoring them by 26 runs in the process. 

It’s the Tigers the Royals have to worry about. They guard the gate to the AL Central title, and they had little trouble with the Royals in 2012. The Tigers won 13 of the 18 games they played against the Royals, in part because their pitchers compiled a 2.79 ERA against Kansas City.

However, Royals hurlers held their own against the Tigers offense, posting a solid 3.84 ERA. If the likes of Chen, Hochevar, Sanchez and who knows who can do that, a rotation with Shields, Guthrie and Santana would do better.

If an improved starting rotation were to help the Royals keep their advantage on the White Sox and bridge the gap between them and the Tigers, the Royals would improve on their 34-38 record in AL Central play from 2012. That alone could mean an overall record in the neighborhood of .500.

But this team’s ceiling will be higher than that if they add Shields to a rotation that already features Santana and Guthrie. Improved starting pitching would only be part of the equation, after all.

Assuming all the right pieces stay in the right places, Kansas City’s lineup would have the potential to be one of the more potent units in the American League. The Royals managed a .716 OPS in 2012, and that was despite the fact that Eric Hosmer and Jeff Francoeur each posted an OPS well below .700 and Mike Moustakas managed just a .586 OPS in the second half.

Hosmer and Moustakas have the goods to be a dangerous middle-of-the-order duo. Billy Butler already is a dangerous hitter. Alex Gordon can be marked down for an OPS over .800. Salvador Perez could provide an .800 OPS as well. 

The Royals offense could easily become one of the top 15 run-producing offenses in baseball in 2013 if things go well. Maybe even top 10.

Don’t sleep on the club’s bullpen, either. Royals relievers quietly posted the sixth-best ERA in baseball in 2012, as well as an 8.58 K/9 that ranked them just outside the top 10. Greg Holland was lights out after taking over for Jonathan Broxton as the team’s closer in August, and he’ll have a very strong setup corps supporting him in 2013.

Even if Kansas City’s starting pitching were only to improve from “bad” to “decent” in 2013, you can do a lot with decent starting pitching, a strong offense and a strong bullpen. The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers, for example, both made the postseason in 2012 despite ranking towards the bottom of the league in starters’ ERA. Coincidentally, both clubs had strong bullpens, and they could hit a little bit.

I don’t want to go so far as to guarantee that the Royals would make the playoffs if they were to trade for James Shields. It would be a big move, but it wouldn’t be an earth-shaking move along the lines of the recent trade the Toronto Blue Jays pulled off with the Miami Marlins.

A trade for Shields would, however, push the Royals further up the American League totem pole. They’re trying desperately to become a clear and present danger in the AL Central, and a trade for Shields would make them just that.

This wouldn’t be the case if they were in the AL East or the AL West, mind you. The Royals have the good fortune to be part of the most winnable division in the league, so now is definitely the time for them to be aggressive.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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With only one game remaining in the 2012 season, an intriguing aspect of Major League Baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement will come into play for the first time.

In addition to the team(s) who failed to sign their respective first-round draft pick, the bottom nine teams—as determined by overall record—will be awarded a protected first-round draft pick.

So why is a protected draft pick such a big deal? Well, under the new CBA, the first 10 picks in the MLB First-Year Player Draft are all locked, essentially.

Therefore, in an attempt to level the playing field, the bottom nine teams will be able sign the top free agents on the market without sacrificing their first-round draft pick. Rather, any team who ultimately signs a top-ranked free agent will instead part with their second-round pick.

No matter how Wednesday’s games play out, the bottom nine has already been solidified (via MLB Trade Rumors). Of those nine teams—well, 10 including the Pirates who failed to sign Mark Appel—the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox are the two who stand to gain the most from the recently implemented, protected draft pick clause. Both teams are centered in major markets, and despite the midseason cost-cutting trades, they have traditionally boasted high payrolls.

So, both the Cubs (No. 2 overall) and Red Sox (No. 7 overall) are guaranteed to retain their first-round draft picks regardless of any free-agent pursuits this offseason.

Therefore, the Cubs can attempt to land a highly-coveted outfielder like B.J. Upton without surrendering a top draft pick—as they would have been forced to do in previous years.

Similarly, the Red Sox will be free to pursue a frontline starting pitcher, such as James Shields, Zack Greinke or Ryan Dempster.

Essentially, the implementation of protected draft picks will allow more teams to become competitive faster. For large-market franchises like the Cubs and Red Sox, it provides an opportunity to both improve the on-field product without sacrificing the future.

For other bottom nine teams like the Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins, it’s another chance to add a highly talented prospect to a rapidly improving farm system.

Either way, it’s a provision that will only make the draft even more exciting than it already is, and, hopefully, promote a competitive balance throughout Major League Baseball.

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It is no secret that the Atlanta Braves are in the market for a starting pitcher, but they should make sure they do not come away from the trade deadline empty handed. They must acquire James Shields.

Atlanta has the fourth-worst starter ERA in the National League. That includes an impressive first half by Brandon Beachy until he got injured. The problem is that they have relied too heavily on unproven youngsters, and now they need a more veteran presence in the rotation.

The team attempted to acquire Ryan Dempster from the Chicago Cubs last week, but the deal fell through. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, talks between the two teams are unlikely to pick up again. 

He also goes on to say that “teams believe Ben Sheets’ three great starts have dramatically reduced the Braves’ sense of urgency to trade for a starter.”

This would be a mistake for the Braves. They are currently in a position to make the playoffs, but without another quality starter they will drop down in the standings very quickly.

Mike Minor has gotten back on track lately, but he is too inconsistent to trust in the stretch run. The same goes for Randall Delgado, who has shown promise but cannot be counted on in big games.

As far as the addition of Ben Sheets, he has already exceeded realistic expectations in his first three starts. However, Atlanta should not count on this type of production for another two months. After pitching only half a season in the past four years, the Braves should only consider what Sheets provides as a bonus.

Now that Zack Greinke has been traded, James Shields is the best option available. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Braves are among the teams interested in the veteran. Considering the lack of alternatives, they should make the trade.

Shields has struggled of late, but a switch to the National League might benefit the right-hander. He has pitched over 200 innings every year since his first in the majors, and is as reliable as they come.

Atlanta might not want to mortgage the future for a run at the playoffs this season, but with this talented team in Chipper Jones’ last season, they should give it all they got. With plenty left in the farm system, the future will still be bright.

Follow @rgoldberg86

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