Kuzul

That Braves offense that led the charge to the top of the standings during a 20-win month of May has seemingly been relieved of command.

Going back to the All-Star break, the Braves are 7-9 since Brian McCann roped a bases-clearing double in the NL’s 3-1 win in the Mid-summer Classic.

News flash—the Braves only have won one series since then.

These are not the Braves that many Atlanta fans came to recognize during a two-month span that took them from last place to a 7.0 game lead in the NL East.

The offense was at one time atop the NL in runs scored. Now, the Braves sit seventh out of 16 teams. While holding the best team on-base percentage, they’re still only seventh in on-base plus slugging.

What this means: They’re still getting on base, but not with quality or timely at-bats.

Let’s just look at this most recent road trip.

The Braves’ three wins came one in each series. Jason Heyward had a big part in two of those wins, as he stole home against the Nationals, and doubled in the winning runs against the Reds on Friday.

Brooks Conrad delivered the big blow with a pinch-hit grand slam against the Marlins a week ago.

Brian McCann had two big games on the trip, and has generally been pretty consistent since the break. Matt Diaz’s bat has been somewhat inexplicably relegated to part-time duty.

Oh, Melky, Alex, Chipper, Troy, Eric. Care to give these guys a hand now that Prado’s out for a week or two???

Let’s go player by player and analyze (OBP/SLG/OPS) the peaks (and valleys) of the recent past.

Brian McCann

The All-Star has looked the part, as July was his best month of the season. He hit .321 for the month with five HRs and 20 RBI for a line that reads .409/.543/.952. His passed ball might have cost the Braves a win, but he was the only one to drive in runs that game for the Braves it seemed, so it’s hard to complain too much.

Troy Glaus

When Glaus hit a walk-off HR against Kansas City on June 19, he was hitting .280 with a .372/.496/.868 line, with 14 HR and 55 RBI. As of today, his averaged has dropped to .244 with a line that now reads .354/.410/.764 and upped his RBI total to 61.

Six weeks has produced six RBI. Yes, you read that right.

The month of July was “highlighted” with one multi-hit game, and an average of .182. His OPS line reads something that Tim Hudson would be embarrassed with:  .310/.234/.546.

He’s done nothing for six weeks, and somehow Bobby Cox still puts him in the four or five slot. It’s likely time to bench him, and call up Freddie Freeman.

Eric Hinske

Hinske’s July swoon hasn’t been as sharp as that of Troy Glaus. Three HRs and nine RBI in 52 at-bats doesn’t seem too bad, but he’s been inconsistent. After hitting above .300 in both April and July, Hinske’s average dipped to .260 in June and .212 in July. His .300/.442/.742 line for July means that he’s been clutch at times, cold at others.

Martin Prado

Fans all over Braves country cringed when they saw Prado slide home on Friday and immediately scream in pain as his right wrist got caught underneath him.

He’s come down after being well above .330 for most of the season. He powered six HRs during July, but for the month, only hit .257. When men were on base, he couldn’t come through for the big hit—if they were on base for him. Of his nine RBI in July, six of those times he drove in himself. Leadoff homeruns are great, but he can produce more RBI with some baserunners in front of him. His 22 RBI in May demonstrated that.

Omar Infante

Prado’s likely fill-in until the pinky is healed, Infante hit .429 during the month of July in 63 at-bats. His one HR and eight RBI during that span doesn’t jump out, but the .455/.492/.947 numbers probably should. The Braves need him to minimize the loss of Prado for a while, and maintain a hot bat in the middle infield to get the Braves on track.

Alex Gonzalez

Gonzo has been feeling under the weather the past few days, and that followed a five-game stretch where he didn’t get a hit. He hasn’t really been the run producer the Braves had hoped since coming over from Toronto. Perhaps that’s because no one’s on base for him to drive in. Nevertheless, the first 10 games after coming over—hitting .360 is something the Braves would love. Even .280 with some more clutch RBI the Atlanta fans and players would be thrilled with.

Chipper Jones

Chipper’s been consistent most of the season. Consistently not producing enough for a No. 3 hitter. His high RBI month is 15 (May), and he’s yet to hit more than two HRs in any month this season, or more than .270. Sorry, but a .329/.378/.708 line for the month of July for your “best” hitter is not going to cut it.

This is the one position the Braves don’t have an answer for. Based on his numbers, Jones should be hitting seventh in the lineup. Perhaps whatever retirement talk was going on earlier this season wasn’t exactly premature. I’m sure Jones, who’s as intelligent and studious a hitter as there ever will be, is not satisfied with what he’s been doing at the plate. I know Braves fans—like him or not—aren’t happy with the performance either.

Melky Cabrera

A lot of people stated the Braves didn’t get much for Javier Vazquez. Pretty sad when you consider the best part of the trade is a minor leaguer who might be dominant in the majors in a few years (Arodys Vizcaino).

July was Melky’s best month of the season. You might be laughing, but it was. Sort of.

Hitting .289 with a line of .353/.461/.813 is pretty respectable from a lower in the order guy. It was the first month this year the Melk Man had an OPS over .750

One HR and three RBI and looking slow in the outfield is not.

Matt Diaz

I have one request for Bobby Cox. Please put this man in the lineup just about every day?

Since Diaz came off the DL in late June, he’s arguably been the best run-producer for the Braves. In only 53 AB in July, Diaz smacked five HRs and knocked in 14 runs, while hitting .340.

Bobby, he’s healthy, and he can hit. Please let him do that. If you need any more information please look at the next line.

.364/.736/1.099.

Guys with a month-long OPS of over 1.000 should not be playing half the time.

Yes, he’s a lefty-killer, hitting .369 over the previous three seasons against lefties. But .265 with 10 HR and 59 RBI over the same period against righties isn’t that bad. If he played against all lefties and a good number of righties, he’d project to be a .300+ hitter and smack 15-20 HR.

OK. Enough said.

Jason Heyward

Heyward’s not in the right spot in the lineup. Since his return from the DL, he’s hit .356 with a line that reads .457/.458/.915. But he hasn’t homered since I saw him blast one off James Shields in mid-June and only has six RBI.

The first six weeks of the season, when Heyward was healthy, he was driving the ball all over the place and driving in runs. He and McCann are the most dangerous hitters in the Braves lineup right now. Diaz has been more productive, but still isn’t quite in the category of Heyward and McCann.

So with the recent addition of Rick Ankiel (who could be good, and could be so-so), here’s how I would make out the Braves lineup (once Prado returns)

Against Lefties

• 2B – Prado
• 3B – Jones
• RF – Heyward
• LF – Diaz
• C – McCann
• SS – Gonzalez
• 1B – Glaus
• CF – Cabrera/Infante

Against Righties

• 2B – Prado
• 3B – Jones
• RF – Heyward
• C – McCann
• LF – Diaz
• CF – Ankiel
• SS – Gonzalez
• 1B – Glaus (or Freeman?)

Looking ahead a bit. There are two potential moves the Braves should make later this season or in the offseason to balance their lineup.

If Troy Glaus’ slump continues, perhaps calling up Freddie Freeman, or trading (again) for Adam LaRoche if the Diamondbacks wouldn’t want too much in return, might be necessary. Glaus has become a major hole in that lineup.

Right now, the Braves’ lineup is a bit left-heavy. They’re looking for a power bat, a right-handed one who would play the outfield, center if possible.

The free-agent market this year expects to include Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth. I can completely understand why the Braves couldn’t or wouldn’t get him in a trade (the Phillies aren’t going to trade a bat like that against their main competitor in the same division). However, next year, the Phillies seem to think that Domonic Brown will be manning right field, with Ibanez again in left and Victorino in center.

The Braves would be wise to give serious consideration to bringing in Werth to play between Diaz and Heyward and hit right before or after Brian McCann in the lineup.

Unless the Braves snap out of their offensive funk, the 2010 season may be over sooner than expected.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Back in 2001, the first “article” I ever wrote about baseball was an amateurish ditty comparing the 2001 rookie class to a great rookie class of a generation ago, the 1986 rookie class.

I am reminded of that article in 2010 as an endless stream of amazingly talented can’t-miss prospects spills into Major League Baseball.

It is starting to look like both the 1986 rookie class and the 2001 rookie class are going to pale in comparison to the amazing class we’re starting to put together here in 2010.

Sadly, for the first time (and unlike in 1986 or 2001) I am now significantly older than these guys, so much so as to justify referring to them as “youngsters,” and to say things like, “We didn’t have kids this talented in my day.”

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The Jay-Hey Kid came through again tonight.  Jason Heyward, a favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, hit a double, moved to third on a Chipper Jones sac fly, and stole home on the next pitch.  He’s stealing more than bases these days, however.  He is stealing the thunder right out of the Phillies and Mets.

It couldn’t come at a better time.

The Braves, atop the NL East and poised to take their first divisional crown since 2002, are cruising with the help of Heyward, 2010 All-Star Game MVP Brian McCann, Troy Glaus, Martin Prado, Matt Diaz, and the crew.  The Braves possess the depth and talent likened to many of the pennant winners in the 1990s.

With a rotation that features Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and a surprise in Kris Medlen, the pitching is as solid as the days of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Mercker-Avery.  The bullpen is good, too, with guys like Peter Moylan, Eric O’Flaherty, Johnny Venters, and, of course, the venerable Billy Wagner.

Many of those names made impacts tonight.

Tim Hudson pitched 7 2/3 innings of one run, seven hit baseball, striking out seven in the process and walking just one.  Out of 96 pitches, 63 were strikes, including 18 first-pitch strikes.  Venters struck out Adam Dunn to end the eighth.  Wagner, as is often the case, pitched a perfect ninth to pick up his 23rd save on the year.

Prado continued to flourish in his leadoff role, going 3-5 with a double and two runs scored.  Chipper was 1-4 with 2 RBI.  Brian McCann also stole a base, his fourth of the year. 

The Braves improved their record to 58-42, 16 games above .500 and 3.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.  Philadelphia has been hot of late, riding a seven-game win streak.  Atlanta is fighting to stay atop the NL East, and they are getting contributions from everyone.

This Atlanta team is going to be seeing October for the first time in nearly 10 years, and I couldn’t be happier.

NOTES

• Stephen Strasburg was scratched from what was to be his 10th ML start with shoulder soreness.  He isn’t expected to miss any time and should make his next start.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Roy Halladay is having an amazing year, and he’s been pretty special over the last month or so as well. In six starts, he has gone 3-2 with a remarkable 1.91 ERA while holding his opponents scoreless three times. This streak includes a game where his opponent took a perfect game into the ninth inning, and Halladay threw nine shutout innings without getting a win, complete game, or shutout for his efforts.

But Halladay you know about. Here is a list of 10 other players who are currently lighting the major leagues on fire, but doing so quietly.

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Jason Heyward has been under intense scrutiny since the moment he set foot on a major league field. This intensified one at-bat later, when he hit his first major league home run.

He got off to a good start, but as pitchers began to learn that he would chase a low breaking pitch, he cooled off a bit. He made the appropriate adjustments, however, and was National League Rookie of the Month for both April and May.

Then there was the month of June, which took a lot away from Heyward’s mystique. He injured his thumb on May 22nd, and played hurt until finally going on the disabled list on June 27th. One has to wonder if playing hurt has also injured his chances at Rookie of the Year.

June also featured the call-ups of Buster Posey, and some guy named Stephen Strasburg, who have both taken the National League by storm.

Strasburg’s feats are well-documented (5-2, 2.32 ERA, 1.067 WHIP), while Posey has slid under the radar until recently, despite putting up phenomenal rookie stats (.368 AVG, eight HR, 33 RBI, .975 OPS). Posey’s catcher arm is also one of the best in the league, throwing out nine of 21 potential base-stealers.

Heyward, meanwhile, is hitting .276 with 11 homers and 48 RBIs, along with an .875 OPS. The RBIs can be chalked up to hitting behind guys like Martin Prado and Brian McCann most of the year, and the other stats don’t add up to Posey’s. However, if you take out his time spent playing hurt, everything looks completely different.

If you look at Heyward’s numbers for the year, without counting the month of June (which he spent playing with that injured thumb), Heyward is suddenly hitting at a .320 clip with a .995 OPS.

Allow me to repeat that: If Jason Heyward hadn’t played hurt the month of June, his other stats give him a .320 AVG, and a .995 OPS.

Trying to play through an injury has cost him 54 points in batting average, and 120 points in OPS. Some of the OPS drop is because his home run swing hasn’t really come back since his return, either. The Braves will happily take a 17-for-39 hitter, though, even if they’re all singles.

With the 2010 rookie class beginning to show all its merits, however, one has to wonder if Heyward may have sacrificed that trophy in trying to play through an injury that led to DL time anyway. As always, time shall be the judge. Well, time, and a couple hundred sports writers.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Josh Johnson makes history each time he takes the mound.

Since he plays for the Florida Marlins, however, media outlets fail to mention him in the NL Cy Young race as often as Ubaldo Jimenez and Adam Wainwright.

Jimenez, whose 15-2 record comes thanks to a hot start in April and May, fares much better with his team’s run support.

Over his first 17 starts, the Colorado Rockies pitcher went 13-1 with a 1.15 ERA. In Jimenez’s last six starts, he is 2-1 with a 7.64 ERA.

Against the Marlins, he had his second-worst outing of the season; five 1/3 innings of a six run- (four-earned) ball game.

But he got a no-decision when Florida blew a lead.

Five times this season the Florida Marlins’ troubling bullpen has lost a lead during Johnson’s starts.

It has prevented him from a 15-3 record, which would put him alongside Jimenez.

Four times this season the righty has had a no-decision when allowing just one run. The 26-year-old pitcher even lost during Roy Halladay’s perfect game despite giving up only an unearned run. 

Unlike Jimenez, Johnson has been consistent all season long.

He leads all of baseball with a 1.61 ERA, and over his last 13 starts, he has gone at least six innings and given up one run or fewer.

That streak is the longest since Greg Maddux achieved it in 1995. 

Eighteen of Johnson’s 20 starts are quality ones, with the season opener against the New York Mets his worst: a five-inning, four-run affair.

He has fanned 141 batters, fourth-best in baseball, and has walked just 29 in 134 1/3 innings. 

Despite these statistics, Bleacher Report doesn’t even have a tag for him!

And in the NL Rookie of the Year battle, 26-year-old Gaby Sanchez continues at a consistent pace.

Instead of the first baseman, though, 20-year-old phenom Mike Stanton attracts all the attention since he’s one of the top prospects in baseball.

Stanton’s power is that of legend. Five-hundred-foot homers have been sighted.

Yet, Sanchez’s numbers speak for themselves: .304 average, 11 home runs, 44 RBI, 23 doubles, and 46 runs.

In comparison, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward, who was voted as an All-Star starter, brings a media circus with him.

After coming back from a thumb injury, he is batting .266 with 11 homers and 48 RBI.

San Francisco’s Buster Posey, who has been on a tear during the month of July, is batting .358 with eight home runs and 32 RBI in just 47 games.

Time will tell if the rookie catcher stays on such a torrid pace.

All this begs this question: Where would both Johnson and Sanchez be if they played for an organization with a larger fan base and more national attention?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Atlanta Braves are having a championship caliber season and looking for their first World Series title since 1995. This slideshow will compare the current Atlanta Braves to the 1995 team to see if today’s team is the best Braves team that the world has ever seen.

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On getaway day, the Braves concluded their first post All-Star break homestand with an 8-0 shutout of the San Diego Padres at Turner Field. With Tim Hudson leading the way on the mound, and Alex Gonzalez’s four-hit day leading an offense that had six different players drive in runs—this was the epitome of a Braves quality win.

Atlanta currently owns a 7.0 game lead in the NL East, with an NL-best 56-39 record, as both Philadelphia and New York look up at the Braves with identical 49-46 records.

With the Braves about to embark on their second nine-plus game road trip of the season, let’s examine the upcoming road stretch, as well as the remaining schedule in the second half.

The Braves upcoming road trip will not log as many miles as the Arizona-Los Angeles-Minnesota trip in June that ended with four-game splits out west, and winning two of three at Target Field.

Currently the Braves are 34-13 in 47 home games (34 games remaining), and 22-26 in 48 road games (33 games remaining).

JULY 23-25 @ FLORIDA

While the Marlins are playing some good baseball right now, the Braves will be fortunate to miss their two best starters—Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

Friday, July 23 : Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, and will be opposed by Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA). Lowe hasn’t fared well against the Marlins in the past, going 1-2 with an ERA of 5.71 in six starts since the beginning of 2007.

Sanabia, he of the two career starts and 19 major league innings under his belt, has a good ERA, but his other statistics aren’t quite as impressive. He’s never made it out of the sixth inning and gives up his fair share of baserunners. The Braves have been hit or miss with pitchers they’ve seen for the first time.

Saturday, July 24: Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.31 ERA) returns to his slot in the rotation to face off against Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.62 ERA). This will be the third time the Braves have faced Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA against Atlanta this year. Sanchez has struggled in July, with an ERA over 6.00.

Medlen won his only start against Florida, giving up one run in 6.1 innings on July 1. Medlen’s only two losses came as a reliever. However, as a starter, he’s 6-0, and the Braves have only lost one of his 11 starts.

Sunday, July 25 : Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.25 ERA) pitches the finale Sunday afternoon against Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.78). Jurrjens has been fantastic in his four starts since returning from the DL (3-0, 2.21 ERA) and carries a 3-1 career record against the Fish in six starts. Volstad hasn’t had a great year, and carries a 1-2 record in four starts against the Braves since the beginning of 2007 into the Sunday matinee.

Prediction: The Braves have won two of three in both previous series with the Marlins this season—and it should continue. If Lowe pitches well on Friday, or the Braves can jump on the rookie, Jurrjens might have a chance to sweep the Fish away. Best bet for a victory is Jurrjens in the finale.

JULY 27-29 @ WASHINGTON

Tuesday, July 27 : I wouldn’t be surprised to see MLB Network pick up this game matching Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA).

Hanson’s owns a 3-0 career against the Nationals, and would be even better if the bullpen hadn’t blown a win for him last year. He beat Washington in early May in his only start against them this year.

Strasburg pitched well against the Braves but wound up on the losing end of a 5-0 shutout on June 28. I know this is nitpicking, but the stud rookie has come down to earth and has averaged less than 6.0 IP per start since June 23.

If both pitchers are on, we could see a lot of hitters blown away on both sides by high 90s fastballs and wicked breaking balls.

Wednesday, July 28 : Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) hopes to follow his scoreless outing against the Padres and out-duel Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12 ERA). Hernandez beat the Braves when the two teams played in May, but has a 6.29 ERA against Atlanta over the previous three seasons.

Hudson was the winner on June 28, pitching seven shutout innings to beat Strasburg and the Nats. He got a no decision against Washington in a 3-2 loss in early May, giving up two runs in seven innings. He’s been a Nat killer, going 8-0 with an ERA of about 1.50 since the beginning of 2007.

Thursday, July 29:   Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) pitches the finale in Washington facing Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50 ERA). These two faced off at Turner Field three weeks ago, as the Nationals beat Lowe and the Braves 7-2.

This month, Stammen has generally struggled, going 0-2 with an ERA over 7.00. Lowe is 4-5 against the Nats since the beginning of 2007, with a respectable 3.76 ERA.

Prediction: The Braves lost two out of three at Nationals Park in early May, and won two of three at Turner Field in late June. The way the Braves and Nats are playing now are more like they were in late June, rather than early May, when the Braves weren’t hitting, and the Nats were playing quite well. Chalk up another two out of three to make it a 4-2 record so far on the road trip. Best bet – Hudson dominates Washington, and should continue to do so on Wednesday.

JULY 30 – AUGUST 1 @ CINCINNATI

Friday, July 30 : Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.19 ERA) faces ace Johnny Cueto (9-2, 3.39 ERA) to open the series in the Queen City. 

Cueto is 1-0 in two career starts against the Braves, with the Reds winning close games both times, beating Atlanta in 2008, and getting a no-decision in a 4-2 win at Turner Field in September 2009. 

Saturday, July 31 : The trade deadline comes and goes as Jair Jurrjens hopes to continue his successful string of starts since being activated to take on Mike Leake (7-1, 3.45 ERA).

Leake got a no-decision in the game the Braves made the 9th inning comeback. He allowed three runs (one earned) in six innings before giving way to a bullpen that eventually imploded.

Jurrjens has had some bad luck against the Reds in the past. He struggles against them in 2008, but left with the lead before the Braves bullpen gave up the lead and eventually the win. In his two 2009 starts against the Reds, he took the losses both times. One game he left down 1-0 after 2.0 innings because of a rain delay, and the other, was a 3-1 loss in September, where he tossed seven solid innings, but got no run support.

Sunday, August 1 : Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) hopes to make up for his last start against the Reds as he closes out the series and the road trip to face Bronson Arroyo (10-5, 4.25 ERA) in the finale.

At the outset, this has all the making of a Reds blowout win, but Hanson was sick that day, pitched horribly, and the Braves still won on Brooks Conrad’s pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam. In his other career start against the Reds, Hanson pitched six innings of three-hit shutout baseball to earn the win.

Arroyo seems to be either Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde when facing the Braves. Since he joined the Reds before the 2006 season, Arroyo is 3-3 in seven starts against Atlanta, with a 7.48 ERA.

In his three wins, Arroyo is 3-0, with a 1.39 ERA in 19.1 IP.

In the other four starts, Arroyo is 0-3 with a 14.29 ERA in 17.0 IP.

Prediction: The Braves showed the late inning magic in sweeping a two-game set from the Reds in May. The Reds have struggled some lately. Hanson shakes off his last start against the Reds, and Jurrjens finally gets the best of Cincinnati as the Braves take two out of three. Best bet is the Braves getting to Arroyo early on Sunday, to finish a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record, and returning home twenty games over .500 at 62-42.

AFTER THE ROAD TRIP. . .

Remaining Road Schedule

The Braves will return home from Cincinnati to host the Mets and Giants. The Braves have four road trips remaining (24 games) and they break down as follows

August:

Three games: Three @ Houston (3-0 at Turner Field)

Six games: Three @ Chicago Cubs (2-1 at Turner Field)
                Three @ Colorado (2-1 at Turner Field)

September :

Six games: Three @ Florida (4-2 this season)
               Three @ Pittsburgh (5-1 this season)

Nine games: Three @ NY Mets (3-5 this season, 1-4 at Citi Field)
                 Three @ Philadelphia (7-5 this season, 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park)
                 Three @ Washington (3-3 this season, 1-2 at Nationals Park)

Analysis:

The Braves have a combined 10-2 record against the NL central teams they still have to face on the road this year. With the Cubs in turmoil, and Houston and Pittsburgh being the doormats of the division, I don’t expect much of a change.

Citi Field has not been the Braves’ friend this year, but two of those losses the Braves gave away during their nine-game losing streak in April. They’ve played the Mets better since. Philly could be shutting it down if they’re too far out, or they could have recharged with a healthy Chase Utley, Jamie Moyer, Placido Polanco, and perhaps a starting pitcher addition.

The best series to watch for on the road would be at Colorado in mid-August, and at Philadelphia in mid-September.

Prediction: Braves win 13 or 14 out of their final 24 road games. Their final road record would be 41-40 give or take a game.

Remaining Home Schedule

Starting with the series against the Mets in early August the Braves play 34 of their final 58 games at home, where they’ve won at a .723 clip – the best in the majors this season.

August:

Seven games: Three vs NY Mets (1-1 at Turner Field, 3-5 overall)
                    Four vs San Francisco (1-2 at AT&T Park in April)

Seven games: Four vs LA Dodgers (2-2 at Dodgers Stadium)
                   Three vs Washington (2-1 at Turner Field, 3-3 overall)

Seven games: Three vs Florida (2-1 at Turner Field, 4-2 overall)
                    Four vs NY Mets

September:

Seven games: Four vs St. Louis (0-4 at Busch Stadium in April)
                    Three vs Washington

Six games: Three vs Florida
               Three vs Philadelphia (4-2 at Turner Field, 7-5 overall)

Analysis:

The Braves home schedule is tougher than their road schedule the rest of the season, just from a team record standpoint. They’ve played the Mets, Phillies, and Giants much better at home than on the road in the recent past and that will likely continue. However, the Braves’ final home series vs Philadelphia may not matter too much, as it’s the last weekend of the season.

The Mets aren’t a good road team, and have showed it lately by going 1-6 on a west coast road trip to Arizona and San Francisco, and should be 0-7 if Phil Cuzzi doesn’t miss the call at home on Sunday. I expect the Braves I see the Braves winning 5 of the 7 remaining home game with the Mets, and four of the six remaining with both Florida and Washington.

Depending on the pitching match-ups, a split might not be a bad thing against the Cardinals, especially if Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia and (maybe Oswalt) pitch in that series. The Dodgers are a better home team and the Braves winning 3 in that series is not out of the question. In past years, the series between the Giants and Braves have generally favored the home team, regardless of their records.

Prediction: The Braves win 22 or 23 of their final 34 home games. Their final home record will be 56-25, give or take a game.

Adding it up. The Braves are on pace to finish with a record of 97-65, their best since the 2003 season when they won 100 games for the second straight year. That should give them at least one home-field series as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With five All-Stars and 50-plus wins before the break, the Atlanta Braves look very strong going into the second half of the 2010 season.

They’ve combined their stellar pitching staff with timely hitting (16 wins in their last at-bat before the All-Star Break) and have steered clear of the Phillies and Mets to jump out to a 4-game lead in the NL East.

The Braves have certainly given Bobby Cox a season to remember in his last campaign, but let’s take a quick look on where the team is headed to try to predict if its second half can match up to their first.

First we’ll start with a positional breakdown on this Braves’ squad.

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Originally posted at The Bravesologist

Lineup: 

The Braves lineup is markedly better than most projected to start the season. Certain players have stepped their game up tremendously. The offense has prospered despite a lack of production from others. Baseball is an odd sport. Some years players produce numbers far better than expected while others perform poorly and seemed destined to be non-tendered. Here is the report card for the lineup.

Martin Prado: A

.325 AVG, .367 OBP, .484 SLG, .851 OPS, 10 HR, 25 2B, 2 3B, 16.8 bRAA, 115 wOBA+

Martin has had an unbelievable first half this season and has been one of thebiggest keys to the Braves great first half. Prado’s ability to get hit after hit and put himself into scoring position over 35 times has ignited this offense. What’s funny about it all is that Prado has really just done what he has always done. His wOBA+ for the past three years is 112, 115, and 112, right along pace with his current 115 mark.

Jason Heyward: A-

.251 AVG, .366 OBP, .455 SLG, .821 OPS, 11 HR, 13 2B, 3 3B, 16.7 bRAA, 120 wOBA+

Before Jason’s thumb injury he was a legitimate MVP candidate. His OPS was near the top of the league and his memorable late inning hits were crucial as the Braves moved up in the standings. His plate patience has been incredible, walking 42 times in just 303 plate appearances. He has an isoOBP over .100 and an isoSLG over .200. I fully expect Heyward to bounce back to form once he returns from the DL.

Troy Glaus: B+

.254 AVG, .361 OBP, .441 SLG, .802 OPS, 14 HR, 13 2B, 12.1 bRAA, 112 wOBA+

Glaus has been the power right-handed bat that many were hoping to get in trade this offseason. With Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe being expendable, a big right-handed left fielder or first basemen seemed attainable. The Braves ended up trading Vazquez for Melky Cabrera and prospects, but the Glaus signing has turned into one of the best value picks of the offseason across the Majors. He has had some big clutch hits including a game-tying home run against the Philadelphia Phillies and a walk-off home run against the Kansas City Royals. Glaus has stayed relatively healthy as well, which was one of the big questions heading into the season.

Brian McCann: B

.267 AVG, .380 OBP, .447 SLG, .827 OPS, 10 HR, 16 2B, 10.9 bRAA, 113 wOBA+

Brian has had better seasons in the past, but he has increased his patience and is continuing to be one of the top hitting catchers in all of baseball. He is only 15 walks away from surpassing his career high as he has 42 already this season. McCann and Glaus have made for a great cleanup platoon and have been fortunate to have guys like Prado, Heyward, and Chipper Jones getting on base regularly in front of them.

Chipper Jones: C+

.252 AVG, .378 OBP, .393 SLG, .771 OPS, 6 HR, 16 2B, 4.8 bRAA, 106 wOBA+

Chipper has had an odd couple of months at the plate. The first two months he was getting on base at a very high rate but not hitting for much power. Over the past month and a half, Chipper has had a lower on base but is hitting more doubles and homers. He could definitely be performing better, but at his age I believe this is what you can expect out of him.

Melky Cabrera: D

.259 AVG, .316 OBP, .348 SLG, 3 HR, 13 2B, 1 3B, -4.0 bRAA, 95 wOBA+

Melky hasn’t been very productive this season at all. He has had some spurts of success, including a go-ahead home run against the New York Mets last weekend, but for the most part he has struggled. He’s on pace for a similar amount of plate appearances as last year and his numbers are down across the board. He’s played close to every day due to his ability to switch hit and play all three outfield spots but he will likely see his role reduced again when Heyward returns.

Yunel Escobar: F

.238 AVG, .334 OBP, .284 SLG, .618 OPS, 0 HR, 12 2B, -8.9 bRAA, 90 wOBA+

Yunel has seen a dramatic decrease in his production this season and has been close to worthless offensively. He has walked a good amount, as usual, and has kept his strikeouts down, but he has hit for close to no power and his on base has suffered due to a low batting average. He has put himself into scoring position just 17 times and he is staring at a career low fly ball percentage.

Nate McLouth: F

.176 AVG, .295 OBP, .282 SLG, .577 OPS, 3 HR, 9 2B, -9.2 wOBA, 84 wOBA+

Much like Escobar, McLouth has done nothing offensively this year when many expected him to improve. He was better than average last year with the Braves despite popular belief, but he has done nothing offensively aside from one walk-off win this year. The concussion he received against the Diamondbacks was unfortunate, but time off may have been the best thing for him at the time. Hopefully he can return to being at least a decent center fielder when he comes off the DL.

Overall Grade: B+

The reason for the grade is the expectancy. Currently, the Braves are sixth in runs in the NL but many believed pre-season that limited offensive production would be their downfall. Prado, Heyward, and Glaus have been incredible and McCann has done his job, which has made for a very formidable top of the lineup. The improved plate discipline across the lineup is one of the biggest reasons for this team being in first place.

Rotation:

The Braves rotation has been a reason for their success midway through the season. Having five reliable starters is an asset that many teams overlook. The majority of teams slot their starters one through five and have top heavy rotations, but the Braves have done it differently the past two years.

The performances of the starters have taken pressure off of the bullpen and bats. Here are the first half grades for the six starting pitchers.

Tommy Hanson: A-

102.3 IP, 104 K, 34 BB, 3.35 FIP, 16.9 kS%, 12.4 pRAA, 123 tRA+

Tommy is the ace of this staff and has thrown the ball better than he did last season. His strikeouts and walks are actually up while his ERA and WHIP have suffered. The raise in those two almost meaningless statistics is due to his BABIP being the highest in the NL and second highest in the majors at .349. There is really no doubt that Tommy is the best pitcher on this staff — please don’t let the publicized stats make you think differently.

Tim Hudson: B

121.1 IP, 61 K, 43 BB, 4.32 FIP, 11.0 kS%, 5.9 pRAA, 110 tRA+

Hudson has been fortunate on batted balls, posting the lowest BABIP in the NL at .232. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his publicized numbers would have you suggest. The defense has played well behind him and he has been able to be successful despite having lower strikeout and higher walk totals than he is used to. His ground ball skills may be a reason for his low BABIP, but even if you factor that in, it’s not enough to explain it being such an absurdly low number. Hudson will either regress or pitch better in the second half to keep his numbers down.

Kris Medlen: B-

68.2 IP, 47 K, 13 BB, 4.38 FIP, 14.9 kS%, -4.4 pRAA, 87 tRA+

Medlen hasn’t been as great as a starter as many would believe, but he has still been pretty solid. Despite his overall numbers as a starter, he has posted a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.78 xFIP in June and July respectively. His overall FIP as a starter is pretty high due to his mark being 5.40 this month, but when you normalize the home run to fly ball ratio you can see he is actually pitching better than the aforementioned numbers would suggest. He doesn’t walk many batters and if he can continue to pound the strike zone he will have success.

Kenshin Kawakami: C

82.1 IP, 57 K, 28 BB, 4.29 FIP, 11.3 kS%, -3.8 pRAA, 91 tRA+

Kenshin was removed from the rotation, but he has had a similar season to Derek Lowe. Lowe’s perception as a consistent innings eater combined with his lofty contract and name factor are why Kawakami was moved to the bullpen and Lowe was never even an option. Kenshin hasn’t been great, he’s been below average, but he has posted a 4.35 xFIP in May and June. He’s better than his face stats suggest.

Derek Lowe: C

113.2 IP, 70 K, 44 BB, 4.24 FIP, 12.1 kS%, -4.7 pRAA, 92 tRA+

Lowe is not worthy of his contract, but as a back-end starter he is successful. He throws a ton of innings and keeps the team in ball games. It’s certainly better than the Kyle Davies of the world that the Braves have dealt with in previous seasons. As I mentioned in the introduction, the Braves have five starters who are solid and Lowe, despite his poor performance since joining the Braves, is no different.

Jair Jurrjens: D+

35.0 IP, 25 K, 16 BB, 4.71 FIP, 15.2 kS%, -1.8 pRAA, 90 tRA+

Jair’s injury kept him out for a majority of the year but when he has pitched he hasn’t been very good. It seems as though his leg injury may have been a product of his spring arm injury and that he was never fully healthy when he was pitching in the beginning of the season. It’s a reasonable argument and he has pitched well in the first two starts since returning. Regardless, he hasn’t helped the team as was expected. You can’t blame him for the injuries, but the injuries hurt his production and overall numbers.

Overall Grade: B

The rotation for the most part has been strong. It hasn’t been the dominant force it was last year, mostly due to Jurrjen’s injury and the loss of Javier Vazquez. Medlen’s and Jurrjen’s stats are a smaller sample size and they should improve. Medlen’s numbers as a reliever would suggest that he is better than his line currently states. Look for the rotation to continue to succeed. More specifically, look for Tommy Hanson to have a great second half.

You can find more from Ben at The Bravesologist, Talking Chop, Roto Experts, or on his twitter @Ben_Duronio

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