Kuzul

1. Navigating Nashville, Music City USA and Baseball’s Epicenter This Week

You probably think the most difficult thing for a general manager at the winter meetings is completing that three-way trade to land an ace or boxing out four other teams to land a bat.

Wrong. This year, the hardest thing in this massive maze of a resort that is the largest non-casino hotel in the United States outside of Las Vegas, with some 2,700 rooms, will be actually finding someone. For example, St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak could schedule a meeting with Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti on Monday at 1 p.m. to discuss a blockbuster trade, and they may not actually locate each other until Wednesday at 4 p.m. You need a GPS and a nutrition bar every time you leave your room, just in case.

Yes, signing a free agent like Jason Heyward (Cardinals? Angels?), Yoenis Cespedes (Mets? Cardinals?), Ben Zobrist (Mets? Cubs?), Johnny Cueto (Dodgers?), Chris Davis (Orioles?) or Daniel Murphy (Yankees?) will be difficult, too. It will require far more cash than clubs want to pay, especially based on what we’ve seen so far (David Price to Boston for seven years and $217 million, Zack Greinke to Arizona for six years and $206.5 million, Jordan Zimmermann to Detroit for five years and $110 million).

“I like the free-agent field. I think it’s good,” one longtime talent evaluator says, and amen to that. It is a strong and deep class this winter, especially regarding starting pitchers and corner outfielders.

But he adds, correctly: “I think it is the secondary guys who make or break a club more than the top-tier guys.”

Think back to 2012, the last time these winter meetings were in Nashville, and how Boston signed outfielder Shane Victorino, first baseman Mike Napoli and reliever Koji Uehara. All played key roles in the Red Sox winning the 2013 World Series.

In the meantime, the stage is set for an active trade market—possibly hyperactive—too. Several clubs have checked in with the Atlanta Braves on starter Shelby Miller. And rumors continue to crackle around a couple of legitimate aces: Oakland’s Sonny Gray and the Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale.

Best part, always, are the surprise deals. Last year, nobody saw the Dodgers dealing second baseman Dee Gordon to Miami, and the Marlins wound up obtaining a batting champion.

As long as nobody goes missing, or is lost traveling the indoor river that flows through the Opryland Hotel, all should be good.   

2. NL West: Off to the Races

The question as they flew to Nashville was, will the Dodgers get left behind?

Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks and Jeff Samardzija to the Giants left the Dodgers playing catch-up, big-time. But practically before Monday morning’s coffee had cooled, Los Angeles was on the move: They were on the verge of a deal with free-agent right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma late Sunday night, according to Bleacher Report sources, then Monday morning they reportedly landed Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman for two prospects.

The Dodgers were left with no choice but to act quickly: Losing Greinke was bad enough, but watching him flee to an NL West rival was especially painful in terms of Arizona closing the gap for 2016.

Together, Greinke and Clayton Kershaw camouflaged a series of weaknesses in Los Angeles last summer. Even had Greinke returned, the Dodgers needed rotation help. Now, it’s S.O.S. time, especially with the San Francisco Giants immediately striking to sign right-hander Jeff Samardzija ($90 million) practically before Greinke had even learned what next summer’s uniform combinations will be like in Arizona (trust us, there seemingly are more offerings than the 31 flavors at Baskin-Robbins).

The Diamondbacks and Giants both would like to add another starting pitcher, and both, according to industry sources, are targeting Mike Leake.

In San Francisco’s favor, perhaps, is that Leake pitched for Bruce Bochy during the second half of last year after Cincinnati traded him.

In Arizona’s favor, perhaps, is that with Greinke aboard, the Diamondbacks clearly have momentum going into ’16, and Leake played in Tempe at Arizona State.

The Dodgers? Adding Chapman to closer Kenley Janssen not only adds intrigue internally (Which one will close? Would Janssen accept a move to the eighth inning?), it signals the club’s post-Greinke plan: Clearly, building a strong bullpen now is a necessity given a rotation that likely will be weaker. Their sticking point with Greinke was they did not want to add a sixth year to their offer for a pitcher who already is 32.

One thing that has to rankle the Dodgers is that, with a payroll of around $300 million, they pumped $44 million worth of competitive balance tax into this year’s pool, and the D-backs were only too happy to be one of the recipients. In a way, the Dodgers helped finance Arizona’s poaching of Greinke.

3. Strong Secondary Pitching Market

Beyond David Price and Zack Greinke, the market is loaded with options—though things already have started to move. Even with Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), John Lackey (Cubs) and Hisashi Iwakuma (Dodgers) off the market, Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon and Mat Latos all are available.

And already, Cueto reportedly turned down a $120 million offer from Arizona (the D-backs, of course, rebounded nicely with Greinke).

Beyond the free agents and the aforementioned starting pitcher trade options, even more could flood the market. Cleveland is desperate for offense, and some wonder whether the Indians will fix that by trading from their starting pitching depth. The names of Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer all have made their way to the rumor mill, so whether Cleveland finds a deal it likes will be one fascinating part of this week.

As the Padres look to fill holes, they are believed to be making James Shields very available. Failing that, don’t be surprised if the Padres move Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross (for a whopping price only).

Might Tampa Bay move one of its excellent starters, Jake Odorizzi or Matt Moore? Might the Yankees deal Ivan Nova as they look to reshuffle and upgrade their rotation?

Beyond Price and Greinke, there are no sure things. While Bochy and San Francisco pitching coach Dave Righetti stand every chance of getting Samardzija launched in the right direction, he is coming off of a rock ’em, sock ’em year in which he led the majors in hits allowed and earned runs allowed, and produced a ragged 4.96 ERA.

“The thing that’s attractive about Samardzija to me is that he’s a super athlete,” one former GM says. “He’s going to go out there, and he’s probably going to get you 200 innings a year for the next four or five years. So at least you’re getting that.”

Yeah, but…

“I think the team that signs Samardzija will be horrified with the lack of what he gives you,” says one scout. “I understand he gives you [innings], but you lose. The most wins he’s had in a season in his career is 11. He’s a .500 pitcher at best, and he’s never proven anything beyond that.”

See, in baseball during the winter, as in modeling, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

4. Where Will Jason Heyward Go, and Whatever Happened to Yoenis Cespedes?

Let’s not allow pitching to hog the entire spotlight (hey, this is Nashville, and even on the television show by the same name, there’s plenty of room for both Connie Britton and Hayden Panettiere).

With runs per game and hits per game dwindling to early 1970s rates, few teams out there do not need hitting. And there are a handful of difference-makers, starting with Heyward. The Cardinals would love to bring him back. The Angels have a big need for an impact, left-handed bat. He fits several other places, too, and is projected by at least one handicapper to hit $200 million or more over 10 years.

“He is interesting to me, but the money they’re talking about with him I just don’t believe,” one industry source says. “This isn’t Mike Trout we’re talking about.”

So let’s raise a question: What if, instead of paying Heyward that, a team in the market for an outfielder who can get on base went for Dexter Fowler instead?

“If I wanted to get two guys out of this, I’d go get Fowler and then somebody else for the same money I’d have to pay Heyward,” the source says. “The market is there to go ahead and do that, to get two of what is considered second-tier players.”

Heyward is 26 and batted .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers, 60 RBI and 23 steals last season.

Fowler is 29 and batted .250/.346/.411 with 17 homers, 46 RBI and 20 steals last season.

In their same list, mlbtraderumors.com projects Fowler to go for $60 million over four years. Sure, Heyward is younger, but one size doesn’t fit all in the Hot Stove League.

Speaking of which, there is remarkably little buzz, so far, surrounding Cespedes. Partly because….

5. Ben Zobrist, Darling of the Hot Stove League

The Mets are pursuing Zobrist hard, according to Bleacher Report sources, and he fits well with several other clubs, too, including the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals and Giants. Take your pick; Zobrist is versatile in the field, he’s a switch-hitter and he’s a leader in the clubhouse.

As of now, Cespedes is holed up waiting for clubs that don’t get Zobrist to turn to him.

6. The Unknown Factor in This Year’s Meetings

Introductions, please:

Ten clubs have changed GMs (or point men in charge of baseball operations, if you factor in those with a “president of baseball operations”-type of title) in the past few months, including the Angels (Billy Eppler), Red Sox (Dave Dombrowski), Tigers (Al Avila), Mariners (Jerry Dipoto), Blue Jays (Mark Shapiro/Tony LaCava/Ross Atkins), Brewers (David Stearns), Braves (John Coppolella), Marlins (Michael Hill is still president of baseball operations but the GM position is vacant), Phillies (Matt Klentak) and Reds (Dick Williams, with Walt Jocketty moving up to director of baseball operations).

Some of those names are familiar and experienced (Dombrowski, Dipoto), but many are just breaking ground in their new roles. How quickly will they move? How difficult will it be for them to navigate the landscape at the winter meetings and deal? And will they get lost in Nashville like so many hotel guests seen aimlessly wandering around?

7. Revisiting Closers

Already, Boston has traded for Craig Kimbrel and Detroit has acquired Francisco Rodriguez, and with teams such as the Chicago Cubs looking for a closer, there are several to be had via the trade market.

Early Monday morning, the Dodgers reportedly acquired the sexiest name on the trade market, Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman, but Monday night a bombshell dropped: Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown and Jeff Passan reported of a domestic violence incident at Chapman’s Florida home in October that put the trade on hold and well may lead to bigger and far more serious issues.

The Yankees are said to be listening on Andrew Miller as they look to upgrade their rotation. The Phillies are listening on Ken Giles, the White Sox might be enticed to deal David Robertson, one of their prizes from last year’s free-agent market, and the Nationals are widely expected to trade Drew Storen this winter and make a strong push to deal Jonathan Papelbon.

8. Other Points of Interest Beyond the Johnny Cash Museum

• Credit the Cubs for identifying a need and zeroing in on it quickly: John Lackey was a great under-the-radar buy before the Cubs snapped him up with a two-year, $32 million deal. “He’s one of the best out there,” one scout told B/R a couple of hours before he landed with the Cubs. “I know he’s 37, but this guy gives unbelievable effort and quality starts, time in and time out.”

• The Padres are expected to be much quieter than they were last year when GM A.J. Preller stole the show at the winter meetings, but they still need a shortstop (Ian Desmond?) and bullpen help (Fernando Rodney?).

• The Blue Jays traded 11 pitchers this year (including Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd to the Tigers in the David Price deal). They are looking to replenish their supply of minor league arms.

• They are done with their major moves, the Red Sox say, but some in the industry still expect new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to dump erstwhile slugger Hanley Ramirez at some point. “I would get Hanley as far away from that ball club as possible,” one executive says. “Panda (Pablo Sandoval) is a follower, not a leader. When he was with the Giants, he wasn’t a guy you worried much about. Yeah, he was overweight, but he played hard. Then he gets with Hanley and has one of the worst years of his career. Gee, I wonder if there’s any correlation. David’s got to unload one of those two, and my guess is he unloads Hanley—and he’s going to pay for a bunch of it.” Ramirez is still owed more than $69 million over the next three years.

• The Reds aren’t necessarily looking to deal third baseman Todd Frazier, but given the rebuilding and desperate need for pitching, anything is possible with Cincinnati.

• The Hall of Fame Pre-Integration Committee fired a shutout, failing to elect any of the 10 candidates they were considering. Charged with reviewing those who played before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947, the committed reviewed, among others: Wes Ferrell (who pitched for 15 seasons and finished second in AL MVP voting in 1935 with Boston), Sam Breadon (an early Cardinals owner who hired Branch Rickey and created the blueprint for the modern farm system), slick-fielding shortstop Marty Marion (1944 NL MVP with the Cardinals), first baseman Frank McCormick (1940 NL MVP with the Reds) and right-hander Bucky Walters (who won the 1939 NL MVP award with the Reds).

• Sending all the best to Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who is battling an undisclosed form of cancer and is embarking upon 12 weeks of chemotherapy, and will not be in attendance in Nashville. Good thoughts and prayers his way.

9. Who Is Kenta Maeda and Why Do You Need to Know Him?

He is a 27-year-old right-hander posted last week by his Japanese team, the Hiroshima Carp. Being that he is at least two years younger than the best free-agent starters available right now and given that he won the Japanese version of a Cy Young Award this year (he surrendered only five total homers while facing 821 batters), he immediately becomes a very interesting player.

The Diamondbacks are looking for another starting pitcher, and GM Dave Stewart raved about Maeda last winter. “I love Maeda,” Stewart told MLB.com. “I love him.” The Dodgers need pitching, the A.J. Preller-led Padres always are in the market for international players, the Yankees could absolutely use him (though they again apparently are determined to stay under the $189 million competitive balance tax threshold and may not make a big free-agent move).

Any interested major league club can bid up to $20 million for the right to negotiate with him, and the winner would earn exclusive negotiating rights. If that club signs him, it pays the posting bid to the Carp, plus the contract to Maeda. If Maeda goes unsigned, that club does not owe anything to Hiroshima.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The rarest find in free agency is a 10-year contract. There have only been a few, and there isn’t exactly an abundance of candidates for one this winter.

There is one, though. If anybody is going to land a 10-year contract, it’s Jason Heyward.

It may sound silly to think Heyward is worthy of a 10-year contract, as it’s not like the star right fielder is obviously the best player on the open market. You could argue David Price was, and he only got a seven-year contract. With him gone, you could argue Zack Greinke is the best player left standing—and he won’t be getting a 10-year contract either.

But though Heyward may not be the “best” player on the open market, it doesn’t require a leap to say he’s the most attractive of the available options.

Whereas most free agents are already on the wrong side of 30 or nearing it, Heyward is only 26. And while many of his fellow position players have only one or two skills to offer, Heyward is the total package. He’s a good offensive player and is easily the game’s best defensive right fielder.

That’s why there are big projections for the former Atlanta Brave and St. Louis Cardinal’s next contract.

And yes, that includes some 10-year projections. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projects Heyward to earn $200 million over 10 years. And even that might be selling him short, as Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated calculated that Heyward could be worth well over $300 million in a 10-year deal.

But this is not the consensus. FanGraphs has Heyward pegged for only a seven- or eight-year contract. Elsewhere, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Jim Duquette of MLB.com are skeptical that Heyward will get 10 years. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports didn’t come out and say it, but he seems to agree.

All this pretty well sums up the nature of Heyward’s free agency. He may be an attractive player in the present, but him getting a 10-year deal is…well…complicated.

There’s no doubt Heyward is going to land some sort of long-term contract. If it’s not 10 years, it shouldn’t be any shorter than seven years.

His youth will ensure that. Heyward’s 26 years make him abnormally young for a free agent, and that youth is especially welcome at a time when teams are increasingly afraid of committing big bucks to aging players. Geezers are out. Young talent is in.

Mind you, Heyward can’t claim to be younger than Alex Rodriguez was when he landed his first 10-year contract. But he can note that A-Rod was coming off his age-31 season when he landed his second 10-year contract in 2007, as was Albert Pujols when he landed his in 2011. Most recently, Robinson Cano was coming off his age-30 season when he got his in 2013.

Another thing that helps: Heyward can argue he’s a more complete player than A-Rod in 2007, Pujols in 2011 or Cano in 2013. They were great hitters first and foremost. Hitting is just one of the services Heyward provides.

That’s reflected in Heyward being among the gods of WAR since breaking into the league. FanGraphs ranks him 11th among position players in WAR since 2010. Baseball-Reference.com ranks him eighth.

No, WAR isn’t perfect. But it’s the best stat we have for considering overall value, and “overall value” is what Heyward is all about. 

At the plate, Heyward is patient enough to post above-average walk rates and has recently become a strong contact hitter. His power isn’t great, but he produces enough to hover right around average. Put it all together, and you get an above-average hitter.

Heyward’s most underrated talent is his baserunning. He’s topped 20 stolen bases in three of the last four seasons and has added plenty of extra baserunning value by taking extra bases in other ways. He doesn’t have Billy Hamilton’s speed, but his mix of athleticism and smarts elevate him despite that.

As for Heyward’s defense, well, he has a shelf full of hardware that can vouch for that. But in case anyone would rather take it from the numbers, he leads baseball in both ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved since 2010.

And yes, teams do care about these things.

Every team can see what the Kansas City Royals have done with their emphasis on defense. And as far as measuring defense goes, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that there generally is “more confidence in defensive metrics” around the league.

Between his youth, his past accomplishments and his deep bag of tricks, it sure does sound like Heyward has an easy sales job on his hands this winter. 

But, yeah. It’s not actually that straightforward. 

Though Heyward can argue he’s more of a complete player than the guys who signed MLB’s last three 10-year free-agent contracts, the big difference is what exactly teams would be betting on. Those last three were betting on Rodriguez, Pujols and Cano’s respective bats as primary sources of value.

Heyward’s value, on the other hand, does not come primarily from his bat. It comes from what he can do with his legs on the bases and on defense. Particularly the latter. That could actually be seen as a red flag.

“I really have a pet peeve with Heyward,” one talent evaluator told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. “So much of his value is tied up in defense that it makes me nervous giving him a huge deal. The speed and defense will begin to erode in the 30s and then you are left with a tweener bat.”

This evaluator may actually be understating the level of concern regarding Heyward’s future, especially about his defense.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently noted that there is evidence defensive skills peak sooner than offensive skills, and the aging curves presented by Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Box Score somewhat bear that out. Defense tends to be steady until a player gets into his late 20s, and then it tends to decline sharply. And though Heyward is young, his late 20s are within sight.

So for executives, the big fear of signing Heyward to a long-term deal is valid. He may have plenty of prime years left in theory, but that won’t be the case if his baserunning or his defense abandon him. Take those two things away, and his bat isn’t nearly good enough to justify a long-term expense.

But this doesn’t mean Heyward won’t be able to find a 10-year deal. There’s a factor we haven’t discussed yet, and it’s could appeal to both Heyward and his prospective suitors:

An opt-out clause.

Opt-out clauses are becoming popular in long-term contracts. Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million megadeal has one after the sixth year. David Price’s seven-year, $217 million contract has one after the third year. Heck, Zack Greinke is only a free agent now because he used the third-year opt-out in his six-year, $147 million contract.

As Jeff Todd argued at MLB Trade Rumors, Heyward is a prime candidate to negotiate an opt-out clause into his next deal. If he does, he could probably get one that would allow him hit free agency again after four or five years.

Fortunately for him, opt-out clauses have some appeal to teams as well. They offer a very real chance of scoring big in the first half of a deal, and then getting out of a sunk cost in the second half. Price’s contract is a good example. The Boston Red Sox are technically making a $217 million roll of the dice, but there’s a good chance it will only be a $90 million roll. 

This could be what gets Heyward a 10-year contract. Though his suitors would probably prefer something in the seven- to nine-year range, having the safety net of an opt-out clause could be why one or more of them goes the extra mile with a 10-year contract offer.

It’s not a slam dunk that Heyward will find a 10-year contract. But he is unquestionably the best candidate for one among this winter’s free agents, and the modern game’s acceptance of his particular talents and of opt-outs definitely doesn’t hurt.

There are going to be a lot of numbers on Heyward’s next contract. One of them might just be “10.”

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Little to nothing is guaranteed in Major League Baseball. That includes player production, and especially when you are counting on it for an extended block of time.

That is why signing free agents to huge deals for hundreds of millions of dollars—or even tens of millions—is such a risky and unpredictable proposition for all 30 front offices. The long-term mega contracts always have a realistic chance of busting. It’s the nature of people; it’s the nature of the baseball business.

But on the open market, you have to pay those uncomfortable prices, which include years and in some cases draft picks, to get the player.

This offseason’s free-agent class is rich. There is power, there is defense, there is bullpen help and there is an abundance of starting pitching, with a couple of top-tier arms, some second-level ones and even more below that. Whatever need a club might have, it can cure it for the right price.

The concern with such deals is the player staying productive long enough to live up to the contract. But every year it seems there is a small group of players who appear destined to fulfill expectations. This offseason we can pick out a handful of players on the market who seem to be bust-proof, even with long-term, relatively big-money contracts to their names.

Begin Slideshow

If the Kansas City Royals taught the world anything in going to the World Series in 2014 and winning the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2015, it’s that defense matters. Like, a lot.

Apparently, the Los Angeles Angels were paying very close attention.

Under the guidance of new general manager Billy Eppler, the Angels have already made two defensive-upgrading moves. A blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves swapped out Erick Aybar for Andrelton Simmons, modern baseball’s answer to Ozzie Smith. The Angels have also signed Geovany Soto to replace the departed Chris Iannetta behind the plate, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, which is another a good switch.

Now, the Angels are reportedly considering a run at another defensive upgrade. According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, star right fielder Jason Heyward is in their sights:

There are plenty of good right fielders in baseball today, but none of them play defense like Heyward. He’s a perfect blend of instincts, speed, arm strength and arm accuracy, and these things have served him very well since he broke into the majors in 2010.

Of course, Heyward is more than just his glove. He’s also a well-above-average offensive player, as he owns a .784 career OPS and has averaged 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases per year. And at 26, he’s very, very young by typical free-agent standards.

Hence why it should not be taken for granted that the Angels will actually sign him. Indications are that he’ll need close to $200 million to sign, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. For an Angels team that’s already weighed down by Albert Pujols’ 10-year, $240 million contract, that’s not an appetizing number.

But what the heck. We can say maybe. Heyward’s youth does offer some assurance that he won’t be another Pujols, after all. Besides that, bringing his glove aboard would definitely fit with what the Angels are doing.

We shouldn’t be surprised that the Angels are putting an emphasis on defense. Beyond the whole Royals copycat thing, Eppler hinted this was coming.

At Eppler’s introductory press conference, he revealed he had spoken to Angels manager Mike Scioscia about “a team that fits the ballpark it plays in,” per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. DiGiovanna took that to mean a roster focused more on pitching and defense than on offense, and that sure seems like the correct reading.

One thing the Angels have in common with the Royals is that they play in a ballpark that requires a strong defense. Per figures Cork Gaines of Business Insider compiled, Angel Stadium of Anaheim has an easily above-average amount of fair territory for its fielders to cover.

After that, you can throw in how Angels pitchers have been middle-of-the-road strikeout artists in recent seasons. The covering of said fair territory has indeed been necessary.

Fortunately for Eppler, he didn’t inherent a roster that was defensively inept. Defense was a big reason the Angels won 85 games in 2015, which put them just a game short of the Houston Astros for the American League‘s second wild card.

Ultimate Zone Rating rated the Angels as a top-10 defensive team in 2015. Defensive efficiency, found at Baseball Prospectus, put the Angels in the top five.

So, Eppler didn’t need to carry out a massive overhaul to make the Angels defense even better. He only needed to upgrade where he could. To that end, he’s already done well.

First, the two notable absences from the Angels’ 2015 roster are addition by subtraction as far as defense is concerned. One is third baseman and current free agent David Freese, whom the metrics rate as a subpar fielder. The other is Aybar, another subpar fielder, who was dealt to Atlanta in the Simmons trade.

Now, I could sit here and tell you all about the Mozart-crossed-with-Einstein level of genius that is Simmons’ defense. But meh, you can take it from his two Gold Gloves and his three straight Fielding Bible awards. Or the metrics. Or, even better, from MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez:

While Simmons is an obvious upgrade at shortstop, don’t overlook what Soto can bring behind the plate. Keith Law of ESPN.com regards him as a good framer of strikes, and Soto is also solid at blocking pitches and throwing out runners. Iannetta could handle the framing, but not so much the blocking and throwing.

With Freese and Aybar out and Simmons and Soto in, the Angels have clearly improved what was already a pretty good defense. But if the Angels aren’t yet satisfied, Heyward could very well be their guy.

And if they bring him aboard, an Angels defense that’s already really good would become downright heavenly.

Like with Simmons’ defense, there’s really no overstating just how good Heyward’s defense is. Since 2010, he leads all qualified fielders in both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. Again, that’s not all right fielders. That’s all fielders, period. If that doesn’t do a good enough job of stating his case, there are always his two Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards.

As such, it’s not surprising to hear Morosi report that signing Heyward would cause the Angels to move Kole Calhoun from right field to left field. That would create an outfield of Calhoun in left, Mike Trout in center and Heyward in right. In a nutshell, here’s how that outfield breaks down:

• Calhoun: A 2015 Gold Glover whom the metrics also approve of.
• Trout: A 2012 Fielding Bible award winner whom the metrics arguably underrate.
• Heyward: He’s Jason Heyward.

So, yeah. Looks pretty good. And because all three of these guys are in their prime, there wouldn’t be any real threat of a defensive drop-off on any of their parts.

They’d definitely get their chances to show off. As noted earlier, this outfield would be playing in a huge home ballpark and behind a pitching staff that doesn’t strike many batters out. To boot, Angels pitchers also have a habit of getting batted balls in the air. Since 2013, no pitching staff has racked up ground balls at a lower rate than the Angels.

Mind you, we’re pretending more than assuming here. The Angels may want Heyward, but there’s a pretty big difference between wanting a guy and paying a guy. There’s no guarantee that the Angels’ interest will lead to a contract offer.

But Angels fans darn well should be excited by the idea.

This offseason has already seen the Angels take a good defensive team and cut off some dead weight (Freese and Aybar) while adding one solid defender (Soto) and one elite defender (Simmons). If Heyward is next, the Angels’ outfield would consist of the right guys in the right place at the right time. What was already a very good defense would become arguably the best defense in MLB.

In 2015, a very good defense helped get the Angels to within a win of a playoff spot. If they really do make their defense that much better, you could only assume that better things would be in store.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

From Zack Greinke to Aroldis Chapman, both the MLB free-agent market and the trade block are stocked with impact arms.

For now, no one knows just where exactly those stars will end up. However, after considering team needs for 2016 and taking into account all the latest buzz, here are some surprise destinations that make sense as potential landing spots.

The list that follows includes the top five free agents from Bleacher Report’s big board and the two most-prominent names on the trade front. Pitchers dominate the list, but there’s also room for a few big hitters who should make a big difference for their new employers in 2016.

Begin Slideshow

The MLB general managers meetings convene this weekend, and an already hot stove will get even hotter as personnel planners meet on the shores of Boca Raton, Florida. 

The yearly gathering is where GMs discuss the state of the game, rules, labor and other topics. But it’s also the early propellant for free-agent and trade talks as the offseason kicks into full swing.

Free agency began Saturday when players became eligible to sign with new clubs, and qualifying offers are out and must be decided on by Friday. 

There is plenty of buzz on how the landscape will shuffle in the coming months. As one agent noted to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports: “This the deepest (free-agent) market in memory, especially in terms of pitching and power.”

With the GM meetings set to begin Tuesday, here’s a look at the latest buzz surrounding a few faces on the fresh market.

Cubs are favorites to land David Price

The Chicago Cubs boasted baseball’s third-best record and were four wins from their first World Series appearance since 1945 in a season their highly touted prospects finally reached the majors. 

They’re young, talented and hungry—possibly with an appetite of $200 million. 

ESPN Insider Buster Olney reported rival evaluators indicated “the Cubs to be heavy, heavy favorites” to sign David Price, arguably this offseason’s most coveted free agent.

It’s no secret the Cubs are in the market for starting pitching this offseason, even with Jake Arrieta’s Cy Young-caliber year and last offseason’s signing of Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million contract. 

A lack of offense was the primary cause they were swept in the National League Championship Series by the New York Mets. But their rotation was also exposed as very top-heavy.

Price has said his premium is winning, but he’s also expected to command more than $200 million. There are only a handful of teams that can offer both—and one stands out as the most logical.

By signing with Chicago, Price would also reunite with manager Joe Maddon, whom he spent his first six-plus seasons of his career with as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Price also hinted his interest during the 2014 All-Star break, per Barry Bloom of MLB.com (via RaysBaseball.com), when the Cubs were in last place:

Winning is absolutely something you want to do. Being a part of something special is also something you want to do. You can take that to a first-place team, or you can take that to a last-place team like the Cubs. With the talent they have coming up, they could be a very special team in a few years as well. That would probably be the coolest city to win a championship in right now.

He even poked fun at the idea with Arrieta on Twitter earlier this summer:

The Cubs are already the favorites to win the 2016 World Series, per Odds Shark, but adding Price will further skyrocket their potential. And he probably knows that.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Heyward could haul nearly $200 million 

Jason Heyward is considered the No. 2 position player on the market, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, given his age, remarkable defense and flashes of power. 

He’s expected to command nearly $200 million over a lengthy tenure, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, leaving few options for affordable suitors.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors gave an analysis on the left-handed outfielder, with a few speculated landing spots:

He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year.  A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26.  

The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play.

Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago indicated the Cubs are also a player. Their 2015 center fielder, Dexter Fowler, is expected to reject the qualifying offer the Cubs made, according to Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune, and hit the free-agent market. Should Fowler leave, there’d be a big void Heyward could fill—particularly given hybrid Kyle Schwarber, who was brought up playing catcher, continues to play in left field due to team needs. 

The Atlanta Braves traded Heyward away last offseason for Shelby Miller knowing the outfielder would have a price tag outside their reach. In the process, they picked up an above-par starter they’d have control over through 2018, per Spotrac. In the midst of a massive rebuild, a reunion seem highly unlikely. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are probably in a similar boat, with the eighth-highest payroll ($102.9 million) for 2016, per Spotrac, a number that will only increase by spring training. 

The New York Yankees or Los Angeles Angels make the most sense in terms of financial flexibility and specific needs. Brendan Kuty of NJ.com speculated New York might stand pat with its current offense, though as a team known to be aggressive—and one that lost its grip of the AL East in the final third of the season—the Yanks seem like they could break out big to win now.

A fair argument could be made Heyward hasn’t lived up to the hype since breaking into the league in 201—he’s a career .263 hitter and has belted more than 20 home runs in a season only once. But he entered the league with massive expectations as Baseball America‘s No. 1 prospect ahead of Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, among others. 

His caveat is his age. Even if he’s signed to a seven- to nine-year deal, Heyward would still be in his mid-30s. There’s plenty of prime left for him to elevate into the player most believed he’d be.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Jason Heyward is a different kind of elite baseball player.

His traditional statistics are not the stuff of legend. He doesn’t bang balls off of scoreboards, and he might never be the all-world run producer traditionalists fawn over. His name has never been instantly recognizable by the casual sports fan, and his jersey might never crack the top five in Major League Baseball’s sales rankings.

Jason Heyward is not that kind of superstar. He’s built in the mold of the Kansas City Royals, a single-player embodiment of athleticism, instincts and non-traditional production. Simply put, he does what he does well so incredibly well that he helps his teams win without jaw-dropping home run, RBI or slugging-type numbers.

As of Saturday, he will be a free agent at 26 years old in line for the kind of fat contract typically reserved for the 40-homer, 100-RBI types. And there is a great chance Jason Heyward will be worth every single cent.

When Heyward broke into the big leagues, he did so with the lofty expectations of being the Atlanta Braves’ next franchise pillar, a right fielder with a bazooka arm, a stick-em glove and light-tower power while also capable of snatching 20-30 bases a season. He was that kind of all-around threat, but as the Braves sank into National League obscurity, Heyward became expendable.

Last November, the Braves traded Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals as he entered his contract year. At that time, he had proven to be a valuable player, posting two six-win seasons by way of Baseball-Reference.com’s module, but he hit more than 18 home runs only once, drove in more than 75 runs only once and posted an OPS higher than .800 just twice in his first five seasons.

Those are reasons why Heyward was one of the most polarizing players in baseball while with Atlanta. Depending on which lens one viewed him through, he was either a potential MVP or a bust.

Despite that, he went to St. Louis with quantifiable value and was just what the club needed as it dealt with injuries across its roster in 2015.

Heyward hit 13 home runs and drove in 60 runs, but his .293/.359/.439 slash line and 116 OPS+ was enough offense. Teamed with his great defense and outstanding baserunning, Heyward ended up finishing in the National League’s top 10 in Baseball-Reference.com WAR and FanGraphs WAR.

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak spoke about Heyward at his end-of-season press conference last month, per Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com.

He was as advertised. On a personal level, he’s just a genuinely nice person. I think he’s one of those guys who could really fit in anywhere. He’s a great teammate and very likable. When you think about bringing players into an organization, there is always that risk. He far exceeded that.

Just because Heyward’s power numbers are not elite does not mean he won’t appear atop leaderboards. Since his major league debut, he has easily—easily—been the best defensive outfielder in the game over the last six seasons.

Alex Gordon, a career Royal and current free agent with similar attributes as Heyward, is considered an elite outfield defender, and Heyward demolishes him in all the meaningful defensive metrics. He is that good.

He is also a great baserunner despite getting picked off in Game 4 of the National League Division Series. According to FanGraphs’ BsR statistic, which is a catch-all for baserunning, Heyward was fifth in the majors last year, and since 2012, he ranks 12th in the majors.

Those numbers are real, and they will hold massive weight in contract negotiations this winter. So will his age.

At 26—he will be 27 on Aug. 9 next year—Heyward is the rare player to hit free agency in his mid-20s. That means his agent, Victor Menocal, can realistically argue to suitors that his client’s best seasons are still within the life of whatever deal he strikes before next season. This is not a 30-year-old whose legs and arm will decline in the next couple of years.

Heyward is a player who could actually get better by the time his next deal is halfway through. That also means he might flash more power to go with his defense and baserunning, and it’s not like he’s never shown pop in the past. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, so the power is in him.

There is no player on the market quite like Heyward this offseason, and in an age of advanced metrics, valuing and emphasis on non-traditional stats, he stands to rake in a deal that could top $200 million. That for a player who does not average 20 home runs a season.

Jason Heyward is a different kind of elite baseball player. The market knows it, and soon his salary will prove that to be true.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Through a season full of injuries and, at times, uncertainty, Jason Heyward was a constant.

Playing in his first season with a new team loaded with World Series expectations, coming off a relatively down year and a summer and fall away from his first foray into free agency, Heyward became one of the St. Louis Cardinals’ most dependable and best players. He starred for the club with the bat, was a defensive marvel in right field and ended up as one of the game’s best baserunners.

The Cardinals won 100 games this season with absolutely outstanding pitching and possibly the best defense in the majors. Their offense was just so-so, but that made Heyward’s presence in the lineup all the more crucial.

If the Cardinals capture another National League pennant this month, it will be done with their pitching. However, considering the opposing pitching the team will face in a loaded side of the bracket, Heyward will play a vital role in the team’s postseason success, and that will go a long way in determining his value on the open market this winter.

The Cardinals acquired Heyward in a trade with the Atlanta Braves, where he entered the big leagues with massive potential and carrying the hopes of the franchise on his broad shoulders, though he never really lived up to any of it. The Cardinals gave up promising starting pitcher Shelby Miller, who still had four years of team control at the time of the deal, but the sudden and tragic death of right-field prospect Oscar Taveras prompted the Cardinals to move on Heyward.

He immediately endeared himself to his new club by racking three hits, two of them doubles, on Opening Day. Things tumbled downward from there, and the now-26-year-old finished the first month of the season batting .217/.261/.349 with a putrid .611 OPS.

Heyward clearly picked up the pace after April, and his OBP never dipped below .340 in any month after that. His OPS was never lower than .783, peaking at .881 during a torrid June. He finished with a .293/.359/.439 slash line, .797 OPS and 117 OPS+. He also ended up being a huge plus on the bases, accumulating a 7.0 BsR total, according to FanGraphs.

“Just trying to keep it simple, keep it simple,” Heyward told reporters last month. “There are good stretches, bad stretches. You just try to minimize all of them regardless of what happens. Each at-bat, put it behind you and go attack the next one.”

Heyward has done a decent job of attacking in this postseason. Through Monday night’s Game 3 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, Heyward is 4-for-12, and he hit a home run and a double in that third, both coming against baseball’s Second Coming, Jake Arrieta.

Heyward came into this playoff series with three others to his name. In the small sample of 40 plate appearances, he has produced a dismal .154/.175/.256 slash line, two extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts to his one walk.

Even with that on the back of his card, Heyward can use a strong playoff performance this fall to juice up his value on the free-agent market this offseason. And recent history proves it is possible with Pablo Sandoval landing a ridiculous $95 million for five years of declining work, much of it based off a couple of outstanding playoff runs.

Heyward does not and will not have the body issues Sandoval has, and because he will not turn 27 until next August, a deal well into the ninth figure is absolutely plausible given the kind of all-around player he’s become.

Heyward is also coming off a season in which he was worth 6.5 wins above replacement, via Baseball-Reference.com, and 6.0, via FanGraphs WAR. Both marks put him in the NL’s top 10.

For comparison’s sake, Heyward is coming off a better season going into free agency than Jacoby Ellsbury did after the 2013 season, when he had a 5.7 B-R WAR and a 5.6 fWAR. Ellsbury, going into his age-30 season, landed a seven-year, $153 million contract from the New York Yankees.

Heyward’s season, and possibly his postseason, has most likely priced him out of the Cardinals’ range. The Yankees and Boston Red Sox won’t be in the market to drive up Heyward’s price, but as we’ve seen with plenty of other players in recent offseasons, it only takes one team willing to unload the armored truck.

Jason Heyward‘s 2015 Stats .293 AVG .359 OBP .439 SLG .797 OPS 13 HR 60 RBI 23 SB 33 2B 4 3B 1.9 DWAR 6.5 WAR Worth of a BIG contract?

— The Birds On The Bat (@BirdsOnTheBat13) October 5, 2015

The Cardinals are not built around Heyward, so watching him walk in the offseason won’t be entirely devastating. However, for the time they do have his services, it is imperative Heyward be an anchor in the lineup if the organization is going to qualify for its 24^th World Series.

If Heyward can be that, a championship and a mega-contract will be within his reach.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the exception of a broken jaw suffered in 2013, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward has been fairly durable since making his MLB debut in 2010. However, he left Monday’s game against the San Francisco Giants after the second inning with a hamstring injury.

Continue for updates.

Heyward Exits with Hamstring Tightness

Monday, Aug. 17

The Cardinals announced Heyward’s ailment, as Thomas Pham replaced him in center field. Heyward was 0-for-1 with a strikeout before exiting.

Heyward was flipped to the Cardinals last November in a move that saw the Atlanta Braves acquire pitcher Shelby Miller and minor leaguer Tyrell Jenkins.

Set to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2015 season, according to Spotrac, Heyward worked through some early-season struggles and eventually found a comfortable groove that’s gradually boosted his stock.

Back on June 22, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny discussed Heyward’s gradual evolution, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch‘s Rick Hummel: “He was trying to (1) make an impression on his new team and (2) still trying to figure out the kind of hitter he wants to be. And you always have free agency hanging over your shoulder. There are a lot of things going on all at once and it looks to me like he got rid of some of the clutter.” 

After hitting .217 in April and .284 in May, Heyward put a bow on June by batting .326. He followed that up with a .312 average in July.

On the season, the Cardinals outfielder is batting .287 with 43 RBI and 11 home runs for a St. Louis team that’s seeking to capture its third straight National League Central crown.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Jason Heyward doesn’t need his sense of sight to play right field for the St. Louis Cardinals—he only needs touch.

With the sun in his eyes and the baseball gods on his side, Heyward made a no-look grab in the top of the eighth inning as his team held a 3-2 advantage on Saturday.

Try as it might, that blazing ball of fire in the sky couldn’t stop the scorching ball of yarn from hitting Heyward’s mitt.

[MLB]

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com