Cincinnati Reds fans are anxious for the start of the 2011 season. Unfortunately, many of us have been engaged in the NFL and haven’t followed the Reds very closely. There have been a few off-season player transactions to catch up on.
The Reds didn’t make any huge deals like this one or this one but they did do something.
Here are the moves they did make.
Was the Reds success of last season an aberration or a trend? They were 43-24 against the Astros, Brewers, Cubs and Pirates, and 48-47 against everyone else.
1–Who among the Reds’ young stable of starting pitchers will take it to the next level?
Homer Bailey: 4-3, 4.46 ERA, 19 starts, 109 innings
Johnny Cueto: 12-7, 3.64 ERA, 31 starts, 185 innings
Mike Leake: 8-4, 4.23 ERA, 22 starts, 136 innings
Edinson Volquez: 4-3, 4.31 ERA, 12 Starts, 62 innings
Travis Wood 5-4, 3.61 ERA, 17 starts, 102 innings
Do you see a pattern here? Cueto was the only one who was in the rotation all year.
Volquez was out after Tommy John elbow surgery a year. With his control lapses and mechanics issues, did he come back too soon? If he can regain his fom of 2008, he may never be worth Josh Hamilton, but has the potential to be a #1 starter on the level of Jose Rijo before his elbow problems.
Wood came up at mid year, and came within two outs of a perfect game, a feat only accomplished by the last successful Reds’ left-handed starter, Tom Browning. He seems to have the stuff for long-term success.
If Bailey is still around, 2011 may be his last shot at gaining a permanent spot in the rotation. He could fulfill the need for long relief they had[n Pedro Borbon who kept the Reds in a lot of ball games. But Bailey takes a while to warm up the clock is ticking…
After getting off to a fast start that would have made Leake an early Rookie of the year candidate, Leake seemed to have evaporated after Volquez returned. When he went to the bullpen, he got hammered. And then he disappeared.
Although Champan is able to throw 105 m.p.h., I am more concerned with his ability to get 27 outs. He either has to start or finish. There is no way to justify his money for a set up man.
If he becomes a closer. where does that put Francisco Cordero? Cordero gets a huge salary to finish games and probably not be around after next year. To justify Chapman’s salary, he would have to be a Mariano Rivera.
In order to compete with other clubs, the starters have to go deeper into games. Given the Brewers recent acquirisitions, they will need to get better in order to repeat.
Bullpen.
Cordero, 6-5, 3.84 ERA, 40 saves is in the last year of contract. With eight blown saves, if half of his blown saves had been converted, the Reds playoff position and maybe results could have been different. Even when he converted saves, it was rarely easy due to erratic control.
Behind Cordero is Nick Masset, who was 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA, with two saves. With Arthur Rhodes departed, Matt Maloney or the possible resurrection of Dontrell Willis filling the void. Logan Ondrusek, 5-0, 3.68 ERA, in 60 appearances, pitched much better in his second stint with the big club.
Middle and long relief could be a weakness of this team, if a starter, relegated to the bullpen is unable to make the adjustment.
Catching
Last season’s pickup of Ramon Hernandez (97 games, 7 home runs, 48 RBIs, .297 ave) was, for the short term, along with Scott Rolen, one of the best in recent years. Coupled with Ryan Hannigan, (70 games, 5, 40, .306) two solid catchers, until last year’s first round draft choice, Yasmani Grandal time to develop. Last year, Hernandez handled about 60%, to Hannigan’s 40%. Hannigan always caught Arroyo. and usually an additional start a week. Barring injury, the Reds seem to be in good shape.
Infield
If the Reds can pony up the dough, they seem to be set for the decade with Joey Votto (150 games, 37, 113, .328, almost unanimous MVP) at first base is the first real difference maker that has come up through the Reds’ system since Barry Larkin, meaning to the Reds what Jeff Bagwell meant to the Astros in the 90’s and Tony Perez to the Big Red Machine.
With another potential big bat in Yonder Alonzo waiting in the wings, one or the other may have to play out of position, like Perez playing third when Lee May came up. Votto worked hard on his defense last year, so any move of Votto that would affect his offense would be a bad idea, and Alonzo may become to Votto what Hal Morris was to Don Mattingly, or Paul Konerko was to Sean Casey.
Brandon Phillips (150 gams, 18, 59, .275) scored a lot of runs, and had a better year than the stats due to a late season hand injury. His remarks about the Cardinals didn’t set to well in head-to-head encounters, but seemed to set a fire under the other teams in the division, The Cards were 12-6 against the Reds, but 27-33 against the other four teams, with much of the damage coming after Phillips’ remarks.
When Willie Stargell wrote his book on the 1979 “We are Familee” Pittsburgh Pirates, he wrote that Dave Parker, a guy who was so talented that he replaced Roberto Clemente, played out of hate. It doesn’t take much bitterness to shove one into playing out of hate. They win championships and they are not happy. Baseball is still a game that pays insane money and most of us can only dream about it. My best advise to Phillips is to play hard but be happy.
The 1979 Pirates were their last championship team, sweeping the Reds in the LCS, and beating the Orioles in a seven game World Series. They haven’t had a winning season since Barry Bonds left them.
Like most Reds good second basemen, Phillips is a converted shortstop, with shortstop range at second base. Phillips made only three errors and won his second Gold Glove.With Cabrerra out of the picture, it seems that the Reds have put the confidence in Paul Janish (82 games, 5, 25, 260)as an everyday shortstop. Like Juan Castro, there was never any doubt about Janish’s defense, but had little confidence in his hitting. But Dave Concepcion was not much of a hitter when he started either. Put Janish in the eighth slot and leave him there. They have plenty of 1-7 offense. Geronimo batted .307 in the eighth slot in 1976, and Sparky Anderson didn’t move him.
Who’s on third, long term: I dunno.
Last year at this time I speculated what kind of a difference having Scott Rolen (133 games, 20-83, .85) for a whole season would be. He certainly was enough of a difference to make the Reds a division winner. But Rolen faded in the second half of the season, and will probably be limited in starts in 2011. Like several guys in the past, I wish Rolen would have become a Red earlier than when he was acquired. It is possible that the Reds can have four Gold Gloves this year.
Two guys that were brought up in September, Juan Francisco (36 games, 1-7, .273) and Chris Valiaka (19 games, 1-2, .263) are possiblilties. Francisco has the offensive pop, and Valaika can back up at second, short, or third, taking Janish’s spot as a backup. With Miguel Cairo (91 games, 4, 28, .290) returing, it is unlikely that Francisco, Valaika and Alonzo will be with the team on opening day.
Outfield
Johnny Gomes (148 games, 18. 86, .266) was an enigma in left field. At times he looked like the perfect #5 hitter, driving in runs in droves, and other times he looked all the things Adam Dunn’s agent never brings up in contract negotiations, strikeouts, and although he made only one more error than Jay Bruce, he had 149 less total chances than Bruce. At 29, he could still have many productive years ahead of him, but 2010 could have been a career year.
Whenever the Reds are approached about trades, Chris Heisey’s (97 games, 8, 21, .254) name probably comes up in discussions. He appears to be a five tool guy that could be an everyday outfielder for a decade. When Bruce was injured, and Gomes, Heisey and Stubbs had to play every inning of every game, the team’s play suffered. Since no one was brought up from Louisville to fill the void, it seems there is little help at AAA.
The potential great white hope of the Reds is former #1 pick Drew Stubbs (150 games, 22, 77, .255h). With blazing speed, he appears to be the perfect leadoff hitter. With Stubbs it is all about contact. How many times last season was Stubbs 0-2 without taking the bat off his shoulders? Batting lead off is a lot of pressure, but Baker and the coaching staff are working to make him more aggressive. If he can become even a decent bunter,he can become a terror to opposing teams. Short fences in small ballparks are a real tempta tion for guys like Stubbs to look for a perfect pitch to drive. In the “dead ball” era, guys like Willie Keeler were successful because, as he put it, “I hit ’em where the ain’t.”
With their speed Heisey and Stubbs can cover a lot of ground. One aspect of the Big Red Machine that is often overlooked was that its defense was as good as its offense. A great defensive outfield can knock off half a run off the team ERA.
The Reds made a major commitment by signing Jay Bruce (148 games, 25, 70, .281) to a long term contract. At one point last season Marty Brenamin wondered aloud, “will this kid ever get it?
One can summarize last season in this statement “as goes Jay Bruce, so goes the Cincinnati Reds.” As good as Votto is, Votto cannot carry this team alone. When Bruce is on top of his game, he can hit the first pitch 400 feet to clinch a playoff erth. When he slumps, the whole team suffers.
In terms of talent, Bruce is a faster version of Paul O’Neill. O’Neill “got it” after he left the Reds, and has five World Series rings. When O’Neill first came up, Pete Rose called him “Jethro.”
Management
When Bob Castelinni bought the team, he got Walt Jockety to be General Manager. Baseball is different from other sports because baseball is a very long season with the fewest teams making the post season. A franchise that was an also ran has a bright future. Jockety sems to be pushing the right buttons like Bob Howsam in the ’70s. I feel for Bengal fans who are stuck with Mike Brown.
When Dusty Baker was hired as manager, I had my doubts. Like any. leader, he can only tell his people what to do. His players have to execute. Some guys succeed, other do not. In 1990, people were looking for any reason for hope against the prohibitively favored Oakland A’s. What they came up with was “the ex Cub factor,” with the Reds having less ex Cubs than the A’s. After losing the LCS, the win 66 games the next year, Baker gets canned. His teams weren’t very good his first two years, but found success in the third.
Outlook
Aside from starting pitching, and even then cannot keep up with the big spenders, the Reds are not very deep. If their regulars stay healthy and continue to improve the decade of 2010 might be like the decade of 1970. 1990 was a great year. A unique year, being in first place all season. The rest of the decade was up and down. I make no predictions.
My Opening Day Lineup:
Stubbs, CF
Phillips, 2B
Votto, 1B
Rolen, 3B
Bruce, RF
Gomes, LF
Hannigan, C (catches Arroyo)
Janish, SS
Arroyo, P He deserves it.
An irony to end this piece: only one year have they opened on the road:
1990
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The 2010 MLB winter meetings are in the books and the market has been set.
After watching Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn and Jason Werth rake in the dough, most of baseball’s GM’s are angry at the amount of cash being thrown around. Carlos Pena, who hit under .200 last season, scored a $10 million contract from the Chicago Cubs.
Then there are the Cincinnati Reds.
General manager Walt Jocketty went to the meetings in search of a lead-off man. When a player in the Reds price range wasn’t available, Jocketty decided to focus on signing players on his own roster.
2010 National League MVP Joey Votto has avoided any and all questions regarding a long-term contract. So the Reds decided to lock-up the next young stud in line.
The 23 year-old Jay Bruce will be a Cincinnati Red for a long time after signing a huge contract this week. Bruce’s deal is for $51 million over six years with an option for a seventh at $12 million.
Is this a contract the Reds will regret when they are shelling out over $10 million for his services in 2016?
Or are the Reds getting a bargain for a young star that has yet to reach his potential?
Aside from a awful slump in July, Bruce had a encouraging 2010 season. He hit .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and one division clinching home run. He made a huge improvement in his performance against left handed pitching, raising his average 67 points to .277.
He is a sure handed right fielder that was in contention for a gold glove this past season. He had seven assists and committed only three errors in 356 chances over 146 games.
He is a 23 year-old that already has 68 career homers. When his contract runs out he will only be 30. So the risk of shelling out big bucks to an over-the-hill Bruce wont be an issue till his next contract.
He has endured two significant injuries in his major league tenor. He broke his wrist while diving to catch a fly ball in ’09, and had a hip issue this past season. Neither injury leads you to think there will be lingering issues and he has never had a knee or elbow injury.
Why could this deal come back to haunt the Reds?
Throwing $51 million at a 23 year-old that has had one good season is a big risk for a small market team. Bruce’s career average is a mere .257. He practically cost the Reds Game 2 of the NLDS with his huge error on a routine fly ball against the Phillies.
He only hit six homers away from Great American “Small” Park. In 44 games against winning teams in 2010, Bruce hit two home runs with 11 RBI (courtesy of Lance McAlister).
Anytime the Reds throw around $51 million the fan base is going to be weary (cough CoCo Cordero cough), but it looks as if the Reds made the right move.
Lock up a guy that wants to be Red and has yet to hit his prime before the demand will be much higher. It’s not unrealistic to assume that his production will only increase in his third full season in the bigs. He has demonstrated a strong work ethic in his ability to vastly improve his batting average against lefties.
He has never gotten in trouble and respects the game. Never heard of Bruce in any sort of drama or controversy.
Overall this was a great move by the Reds and a positive sign for the future. Watching the 31 year-old Werth cash in for over $120 million caused Jocketty to act now so the franchise wouldn’t be crying later.
The Reds are very young and signing long term deals before the player explodes on the scene nationally is essential. Votto is going to be more expensive, and the Reds want to save room for him and Johnny Cueto as well.
This is the first step in showing the players on the team and around MLB that the Reds are committed to winning and will spend the money to do it.
Bruce is now one of the faces of the franchise and the Reds will not be worrying about right field for a long time. Bruce is now set for the next six to seven years financially at 23. How many people his age can say that?
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MLB Rumors: Russell Martin is done in Los Angeles, but he appears to have plenty of options on the open market.
Marc Carig of the Star Ledger tweeted that Martin has received offers from four teams, three of which are in baseball’s power division, the AL East.
The New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox have reportedly offered Martin a one-year contract while an unidentified fourth team has offered a multi-year deal.
According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the favorites right now are…the Red Sox.
Yep, with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez already in Boston, the team is the frontrunner for Martin’s services.
The fourt team in the mix is reportedly the Colorado Rockies, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse.
Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com also notes that Martin would serve as a catcher for the Red Sox rather than as a utility player.
It does appear, however, that Martin would prefer to go to an East Coast team.
MLB Rumors: Edgar Renteria was a member of the San Francisco Giants when they won the World Series last season.
But he’s now stuck in no-man’s land, seemingly unsure of what his future entails.
According to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Giants have offered Renteria a one-year deal to but that’s to serve as a utility infielder.
Not to mention the deal is for $1 million, which is a huge decrease from his previous two-year $18.5 million deal with the team.
Renteria has gone on record in saying that he wants to finish his career with the Florida Marlins or St. Louis Cardinals, but the Marlins don’t seem to be a fit for him right now and there’s no word on him ending up in St. Louis.
There is speculation right now that Renteria will wind up back in San Francisco because of his friendship with Miguel Tejada, who recently signed with the team.
However, the Giants would have to restructure their infield if Renteria does re-sign.
Take a look at the Giants’ offseason outlook.
MLB Rumors: Cliff Lee holds the key to the MLB free agency puzzle.
Whenever and wherever he signs, Lee is expected to have a ripple effect throughout all of baseball.
And perhaps no one’s future will rely on Lee’s signing more than Kansas City Royals pitcher ZackGreinke.
According to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, the market for Greinke will heat up once Lee is off the market.
The reported asking price for Greinke?
Dutton says the Royals wants”two high-impact prospects, preferably a starting pitcher and either a middle infielder or center fielder, and two players capable of supporting roles.”
Damn, that sounds like a lot.
Greinke is coming off a so-so season, and it’s unclear how many teams would be willing to part with that much talent to acquire a pitcher who’s not a surefire ace.
FoxSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal notes that the Marlins have been in touch with the Royals aboutGreinke’s services but nothing is on the horizon.
So where would Greinke fit? Check out 10 possible destinations for the star pitcher.
MLB Rumors: The Boston Red Sox have stolen all the headlines early on in the MLB offseason.
They pried Adrian Gonzalez away from the San Diego Padres and signed Carl Crawford to one of the richest contracts in baseball history.
But now all the attention is on Cliff Lee.
The most coveted prize of this year’s free agent market has been linked to only a few teams, most notably the Texas Rangers—who he helped get to the World Series last season—and the New York Yankees.
When it’s all said and done, Lee will probably return to Texas or be wearing pinstripes next season.
But what will it be?
Well, I’m here to keep you updated on the latest news concerning the left-handed ace who will soon crush a team’s dreams or make them come true.
I’ll also talk about some of the latest news coming out of baseball’s winter meetings.
There’s no need to refresh this page. It’ll update every few minutes.
So sit back, relax and enjoy the latest MLB rumors.
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Now that the playoffs and World Series are over, it is time for baseball fans to either choose the NFL or the NBA, or dwell on the “what if?” scenarios.
Since professional football players have now become entrenched in a kill-or-be-killed mentality I must confess to all sports fans that I have not watched an entire quarter of football yet this fall.
The NBA is hardly worth watching, save the last 30 or 40 seconds. That leaves me with nothing but playing the “what if” game along with other Reds fans.
How humiliating it was to watch the New Red Machine become a footnote in baseball trivia at the hands of the best pitcher in the game, Roy Halladay?. What a gargantuan performance by the Phil Sims look-alike.
Let’s play now. What if Dusty Baker had started Travis Wood in Game 1 instead of Edinson Volquez? Did Baker think he was the best we had, really? Who did he use as a soundboard for opinions?
Did he forget that Wood nearly pitched a perfect game against the Phillies in Philadelphia earlier this season? Did he forget that Wood is a lefty and many of the Phillies hitters are lefties as well?
Was his thinking based on a “can’t win” mentality since he was facing Halladay, expecting nothing short of a complete game win by the stud? Perhaps he was merely throwing Volquez in as the proverbial sacrificial lamb.
That is a bad thought right there, I don’t care who you are. Giving up Game 1 before it starts should be a non sequitor.
I just can’t justify that type of logic, that cries out “why waste Bronson Arroyo or Wood on a game we are going to lose anyway?”
Where was the offense in that playoff series? The Reds were the best offensive and defensive teams in the entire league, though their statistics would surely belie that.
The only two Reds who batted their weight were Brandon Phillips (.333) and Jay Bruce (.250).They scored a paltry four runs in the three games and batted only .124, probably a playoff record but I am too mad to look it up.
Bruce and Phillips are the only two who played long ball against Philly pitching. The Reds ERA was surprisingly good at 2.52 but pales in contrast to the 1.00 posted by the Philadelphia hurlers.
The Reds did have higher numbers in one category than the Phillies. They made seven errors compared to three for the Phills.
Were they happy just to be there? You tell me. I can say that I was totally embarrassed by the overall performance and am anxious to see what transpires in the offseason.
The way GM Walt Jocketty operates, you can probably expect to see Jonny Gomes non-tendered again and picked up the day spring training starts again.
The same thing probably holds true for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. They won’t pick up his option but will probably try to negotiate a cheaper price.
I hope he decides to keep Sir Arthur Rhodes.
Say goodbye to Aaron Harang, who had two really good years with the Reds. I think Jocketty will try and hold on to Arroyo. He did manage to win 17 games, tying Volquez’ 2008 performance which was the best for a Reds pitcher since Pete Schourek won 18 back in 1995.
Arroyo also won his first Gold Glove award this year as well.
So, you watch the NFL Parade of Concussions or the NBA Dunkfest, and I will continue to wonder “what if?”
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Each season, players seemingly come out of nowhere and become catalysts for their team. Whether it is a high-profile rookie, a second-year player, or simply someone who finally got their chance, new stars pop up each and every season.
What follows is a list of the 25 players most likely to breakout in 2011. There are a number of top prospects on the list, as well as some former top prospects who have still not lived up to their high billing.
So as the offseason wheelings and dealings begin to unfold, here are the 25 guys who will make their teams better with a breakout season in 2011.
Yes, it’s that time of year again. The time of year when I grow yet another hideous playoff beard.
My wife hates it. It’s itchy. It’s ugly. It’s embarrassing. It has no redeeming qualities. And to make matters worse I have to shave my mustache which is incredibly patchy and unbalanced. This results in an Amishesque look which is none too becoming. That said, it has to be done and that’s all there is to it.
Sorry wifey.
While I realize that the vast majority of you are here for my playoff beard analysis and predictions, we will instead take a look at game 1 of the National League Divisional Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here goes.
PHILLIES
The matchup is intriguing. Philadelphia is coming off two straight trips to the World Series and yet they continue to show a hunger to reach the pinnacle of baseball once again. The injury-riddled 2010 version of the team often showed no resemblance to the one that torched the National League in 2008 and 2009.
And yet here they are again, anointed the favorite to once again lay claim to the National League Championship. They are the team to beat and they know it.
An unparalleled starting rotation fronted by Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels form an intimidating top three. The drop off to Joe Blanton is precipitous, but as the Yankees proved last year, a dominant trio can get the job done. And this Phillies threesome trumps the Yankees.
Much was made of the Phillies offensive struggles this year, though the team hit its stride when it mattered most. While the greatest strength of this team is its starting pitching, its offense isn’t far behind.
And while the stars didn’t shine as bright as they have in years past, the depth of this lineup is what truly separates it from the rest. There are no easy outs.
The loss of Placido Polanco could hurt the Phillies though I believe him to be their most replaceable starter. Wilson Valdez should fill in nicely at third base equaling Polly’s sure-handedness while providing a stronger arm and perhaps a bit more range.
At the plate, Valdez is a downgrade but he did manage to hit .313 in the months of September and October. He is also faster than Polanco which should not be overlooked.
I believe the absence of Polanco hurts the team more in terms of depth as I do not see a significant downgrade in their starting lineup. Danger could present itself if Jimmy Rollins re-injures himself and Polanco’s back does not allow him to return to the field quickly. The Phillies do not want to have to play Greg Dobbs regularly, if at all.
REDS
There is a soft spot in my heart for Cincinnati as I once played alongside (OK, OK, mostly watched from the bench) Chris Heisey, a reserve outfielder on the team. I wish him the best, but sadly I cannot say the same for the rest of the Reds.
Cincinnati has two very scary hitters: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Votto’s crushed the ball all year long, but it took until the final two months of the season for Bruce to come on. The former #1 prospect in baseball is still just 23 years old and he mashed 15 of his 25 home runs in his final 33 games.
In addition to their left-handed stars, the Reds have a nice mix of veterans and to fill out their lineup. Scott Rolen provides playoff experience and leadership as well as a solid bat and a great glove. Brandon Phillips can be a sparkplug, though he has struggled of late, possibly due to injury. Jonny Gomes, though streaky, once again provided great production.
Perhaps the biggest offensive key for the team could be the play of Drew Stubbs who has provided more pop in the Major Leagues than he did in any of his Minor League stops.
Pitching wise the Reds boast a solid bullpen but cannot matchup with the Phillies starting pitchers. Of course, no other team in baseball can do that right now.
Edinson Volquez pitched well in his final four starts of the year, but these starts came against Pittsburgh, Arizona, Milwaukee and Houston. With 62 2/3 innings pitched on the year, throwing Volquez in Game 1 is a roll of the dice, but I don’t think Dusty Baker has a great alternative. When healthy Volquez was an ace, and if he is back to that form, he will give the Phillies trouble.
Wrapup/Today’s Game:
We’ve got about an hour to go before today’s game so I’d better get this wrapped up, incomplete as it may be.
Roy Halladay takes the mound against Volquez. This is a mismatch, but Volquez does have the raw stuff to come up big for the Reds.
If Halladay can prevent Votto and Bruce from hurting him I don’t see the rest of the lineup doing much damage. The Doctor will be pumped and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an erratic first inning by him. I’d be shocked however if he doesn’t provide his typical 7 or 8 strong innings.
Volquez might cruise through the lineup his first time through, but this Phillies team is patient. Volquez walked 35 batters in his 62 2/3 innings this year (Halladay walked just 30 in 250 2/3 innings!) and walks turn solo home runs into two and three run bombs. Not good!
That’s it, have to go shave now for the last time in hopefully about a month.
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