Kuzul

Over the last couple of days, we’ve talked about the right field situation and Nick Swisher‘s impending free agency.

We’ve all talked about what kind of deal would be fair for the Yankees to offer Swisher, if they were going to try and retain his services for 2013 and beyond.

However, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Swisher may be looking for a ridiculous contract..

According to Heyman, Swisher will be looking for a Jayson Werth type deal, which was seven years and $126 million with the Washington Nationals back in December 2010.

Werth has yet to live up to that contract, as he was awful in 2011 and has spent a lot of time on the DL this year.

In the simplest of terms, Jayson Werth is one of the most overpaid players in baseball, and I’m sure Nationals GM Mike Rizzo would go back and stop the signing from ever happening if he could.

In fact, if Major League Baseball had the NBA’s amnesty clause on a certain player, I’m sure Rizzo would use it on Werth and rid that deal off his payroll.

Now, Swisher, who will be 32 years old by the time free agency starts, is reportedly looking for a similar deal.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the world of Swisher and would like to see him back in pinstripes for next season, but not for seven years and $126 million.

At best, I would give Swisher a three-year deal worth around $39 million, which would be at $13 million per season.

Swisher is making $10.25 million now in 2012, and that’s a fair amount given what Swisher does with the bat.

His playoff numbers are nowhere near what they should be, but his 20-plus home runs and 80-plus RBI in the regular season is what will get him paid in the offseason.

The fact that he can also play first base will help his case for a team looking to give him a decent contract in the winter.

But what in the world is Swisher thinking if he honestly thinks he’s going to ask for Jayson Werth money?

Does he honestly think any team is going to pay a 32-year-old outfielder $18 million over the next seven years?

The Nationals did it with Werth, and they are regretting it every single day,

Swisher is a good player, but not worth over $100 million by any stretch of the imagination. If he does, he will be waiting by a phone that never rings all winter, except from his agent, who will advise him to lower his alleged demands.

When the offseason begins for the Yankees, their top priorities are Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano.

Plus, the team also has to figure out Russell Martin, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.

Also, Mariano Rivera will be a free agent again and if he’s pitching in 2013, he’ll require a deal as well.

Clearly from the list that I have provided here, the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman have a lot of priorities come November.

Swisher might be on there, but not at a seven-year, $126 million price tag. Cashman will gladly thank Swisher for his time and service and wish him well.

Between now and the time the 2013 season begins, it’ll be interesting to see if Swisher’s demands drop or if he honestly thinks he can pull that kind of deal off.

Stay tuned, Yankees Universe.

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Remember when there was hope on the banks of the Allegheny River in 2011?  The Pittsburgh Pirates, after suffering their 18th losing season in a row, hired manager Clint Hurdle before the start of the 2011 season.  

That season began with great promise: On July 4 the Pirates had a record of 44-41 and were only 1.5 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Pirates even went as far as to be buyers at the trade deadline, where they acquired Ryan Ludwick from the San Diego Padres and Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles. 

As the cynical Pirates fans might have predicted, the moves did not pan out and the team dropped to 62-75 by September 1. The Pirates were 18.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers and the franchise headed to their 19th losing season in a row.  Without A.J. Burnett in the rotation to start the season because of a facial fracture, it is unlikely that the Pirates will repeat the 2011 magic. 

Every year in Major League Baseball there is a team (or two) that gets their fans excited and then fades in the dog days of summer.  Ordinarily, this occurs with young teams or teams where everyone starts off with a career year but peter out once they start playing teams for the second or third time.  Occasionally, these teams that surprise the baseball world keep it up through vernal equinox and end up making the postseason. 

Here are six teams that could start off well this year but will likely fade after the All-Star break.

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Bryce Harper’s status with the 2012 Washington Nationals has become one of the hottest topics of Spring Training thus far. He’s one of the most talented prospects ever in Major League history, and it’s no question that the Nationals would love to have him on the 25-man roster.

Apparently, manager Davey Johnson seems willing to give Harper every chance this spring to make the club. Even though veterans Mike Morse, Roger Bernadina and Jayson Werth will all have the upper hand, Harper will still be given ample opportunity.

If Harper has a strong spring, Johnson and GM Mike Rizzo will have no choice but to consider him for the Opening Day roster. 

Harper is somebody who needs to be playing everyday, no matter the level. If he plays well enough this spring to make the team, but not well enough to start, the Nationals would be wise to have him play in AAA so he can continue to get regular at-bats.

Even if he did play well enough to earn a starting spot in right field, he would be a huge work in progress. It’s obvious that he has serious talent, but he still needs work defensively in the outfield, along with his base-running and with his discipline at the plate.

Such things can only be corrected with a sufficient amount of playing time. Playing sporadically as a fourth outfielder in the majors won’t do much to help his progression into the superstar player he seems destined to be.

The 19-year old is confident in his abilities, and given his manager’s confidence in him, it’s definitely a possibility that Harper will be suiting up as the Opening Day right fielder in 2012.

Harper’s emergence with the team would have a direct effect on Werth, who will be asked to shift from his natural position of right field over to center. That move would make Bernadina the team’s fourth outfielder, or emergency plan just in case Harper falters.

Werth, who failed to produce at a level reflective of the monster contract he signed prior to last season, would have a tough task ahead of him. He would be asked to transition into playing center field everyday, as well as being asked to cover for the inevitable mistakes that Harper would make in the transition to an everyday outfielder.

Werth’s offense, though, will probably benefit from Harper’s presence in the lineup.

In 561 at-bats last season, Werth hit a putrid .232/.330/.389 with 20 home runs and 58 RBI. With the added protection of Harper, Werth would theoretically see an all-around increase in his production.

Having Harper on the roster would surely improve the Nationals offensive production. That being said, the defense would take a pretty big hit, at least at first. Harper seems determined this spring to improve his game, so he may turn out to be a more-than-serviceable outfielder.

The Nationals figure to be a much improved club this season, with or without the presence of Harper on the 25-man roster. The additions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson will be huge for the rotation, and the under-the-radar signing of Brad Lidge should help to solidify the back end of the bullpen.

The team won 80 games in 2011. With the additions of Gonzalez, Jackson and Lidge, the team could see its win total increase into the 88-range. With Harper on the team, though, that win total could increase even further into the 91-range.

With 91 wins, the team would most likely be fighting with the revamped Marlins for a Wild Card spot. Should they win the Wild Card, the Nationals could end up cast as a playoff sleeper in October.

There’s no doubt that Harper will be a productive major leaguer when his time comes, but he could really be a valuable asset to the Nationals this season. Although he may make the defense a bit weaker, the offense and the bench will be improved as a result of him being on the team.

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The endless string of opinions and predictions after Jayson Werth departed from Philadelphia last December were finally given some answers Tuesday night. In the first meeting between the Phillies and their former right fielder, Werth and his Washington Nationals got the upper hand and bested the first place Phils, 7-4. 

Werth, who had been struggling so far this season, went 2-3 and sent one over the left field fence off Joe Blanton in the fifth. I’m sure it was a tidbit of satisfaction for Werth, who was met with a mix of boos and cheers from the Philly fans who made the trek down to D.C.

The Nats had slid Werth from second to third in the line-up to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman and it paid immediate dividends. He looked more patient at the plate in Tuesday night’s game than he had at any time in the young season. 

Joe Blanton, the “forgotten man” in the Phillies’ starting rotation, was shaky for the second straight start, coughing up five runs in six innings of work. Joe was fine through three innings, but he ran into trouble in the fourth, giving up hits to Jerry Hairston and Wilson Ramos. This allowed the Nationals to grab the lead, and they held on in the later innings to secure the victory. 

No one is hitting the panic button because of Blanton’s struggles just yet. After all, he has the least amount of pressure on him. The fan base in Philly are so focused on the top four, Blanton can fly under the radar for now. However, if Big Joe does not produce a quality start soon, the boo birds will be calling for Kyle Kendrick before you know it. 

Ryan Howard snagged his third home run of the season, but the Phils offense never found a rhythm, despite out-hitting Washington 10 hits to nine. Shane Victorino’s five game hitting streak also came to an end tonight. 

Roy Halladay will look to stop the bleeding tomorrow night, as he faces lefty John Lannan. Werth’s knowledge of the Phils gave him the edge tonight, we’ll see if Doc has Jayson’s number Wednesday night. 

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After the Washington Nationals’ 11-2 humbling at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, Ryan Zimmerman promised a better effort from the club on Tuesday. Then Zimmerman went out and backed up that promise.

Despite Zimmerman’s tremendous effort, a lack of clutch hitting and a tenth inning error by Jayson Werth allowed the Marlins to win 3-2 on a walk-off hit by Donnie Murphy.

In the third inning, Florida starter Anibal Sanchez threw Zimmerman a 1-0 fast ball that the third baseman rocketed over the left field wall to put the Nationals up 2-1.

Washington was able to maintain that lead until pinch hitter Greg Dobbs drove in Donnie Murphy on sac fly given up by Tyler Clippard. The earned run went to Jason Marquis, who surrendered a double to Murphy to lead off the seventh inning.

Marquis pitched well enough to win, giving up two earned runs in 6.1 innings of work. The good start has to feel good for Marquis, who struggled in 2010 with injuries. Marquis lived in the bottom of the strike zone, getting the Marlins to ground out all night long.

The Nats continue to wear out opposing starting pitchers with patience. Sanchez threw 105 pitches in only 5.2 of work, but surrendered only two earned runs.

The Nationals stranded 12 on Tuesday night, a problem they’ve had all season. It could be the product of the Nationals unusual lineup. If the mediocrity with runners on base continues to be a problem, Jim Riggleman has to move Jayson Werth to the third slot in the order.

It would certainly give Werth more RBI opportunities than he is getting now. Nationals’ lead-off hitters have reached base just once in four games; that’s not how you win games.

Speaking of the lead-off spot, it was revealed Tuesday that Danny Espinosa would take over for Ian Desmond at the top of the order. Desmond will move down to seventh. Credit has to go to Riggleman for making this move as soon as he did and not being stubborn.

For more Nats coverage, visit nationalsbaseblog.blogspot.com/

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WASHINGTON NATIONALS 

Last Year: 69-93, 5th in NL East  

Manager: Jim Riggelman 

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C – Ivan Rodriguez (R) 

1B – Adam LaRoche (L)

2B – Danny Espinosa (S) 

3B – Ryan Zimmerman (R) 

SS – Ian Desmond (R)

LF/CF – Roger Bernadina (L)/Nyjer Morgan (L)/Rick Ankiel (L)/Mike Morse (R)

RF – Jayson Werth (R) 

The Nationals lineup should be able to put up decent offensive numbers, but the lineup will miss the power numbers that Adam Dunn provided.

Jayson Werth will match Dunn’s OBP, but he should fall short of Dunn’s 38 home runs in 2010. Expect Werth to hit 25 home runs with a .275/.370/.485 line.

The Nationals have not decided who will join Werth in the outfield, but whoever starts will not have a firm hold over the position. The only thing Nyjer Morgan proved in 2010 was that he is emotionally unstable. Roger Bernadina has speed (approximately 20 stolen bases), and the ability to hit 10 home runs if provided regular playing time. Rick Ankiel and Mike Morse have the best power numbers of the bunch, but both strike out too often to have a consistent batting average. Bernadina and Morse are the favorites to get the most playing time with Bernadina batting leadoff.

Ivan Rodriguez is getting old, but he should run into 5 home runs with a .260 average.    

Ryan Zimmerman will bat cleanup for the Nationals and provide additional right-handed power alongside Werth. Zimmerman put up consistent offensive numbers the last two seasons, and he should hit 27-32 home runs with a .300/.380/.515 line in 2011.

Adam LaRoche will try to provide some of the left-handed power at 1B that Dunn provided. LaRoche has hit 25 home runs for the last three years, and I project him putting up a similar number this year, but his average should dip to around .250 heading into Nationals park. Prospect Danny Espinosa, who is discussed below, will be a pleasant surprise this year. Ian Desmond looks poised for a good year batting in the two hole. He has good speed and his power numbers and OBP should increase steadily in 2011. Desmond will finish the season with 13-15 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a .280/.330/.425 line. 

The Nationals defense ranked 14th in UZR during the 2010 seasoun despite committing a NL-high 127 errors. Defenders like Ryan Zimmerman may commit some errors, but Zimmerman has the best range of any third basemen in the league. Ian Desmond also has some range at SS, but he commits too many errors on routine plays. Adam LaRoche had a good year at 1B in 2010, and is a significant upgrade over Adam Dunn. Pudge is still considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game, and he will be a great mentor to the young Wilson Ramos. Roger Bernadina and Nyjer Morgan would be the best defensive outfield to team with Jayson Werth, whose range is decreasing. Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel are both considered below average.  

BENCH

IF/OF – Jerry Hairston Jr (R)

IF – Alberto Gonzalez (R)

OF – Roger Bernadina (L)/Nyjer Morgan (L)/Rick Ankiel (L)/Mike Morse (R)

C – Wilson Ramos (R)

OF – Matt Stairs (L)   

STARTING ROTATION

RHP – Livan Hernandez

RHP – Jason Marquis 

LHP – John Lannan 

RHP – Jordan Zimmerman 

LHP – Tom Gorzelanny 

Livan Hernandez leads this ragtag group of starters into the 2011 season. Hernandez somehow had an ERA of 3.66 but his 4.76 xFIP tells a different story. His strikeout and groundball numbers didn’t improve, but he was able to keep his HR total down. Hernandez uses his experience and knowledge of hitters’ tendencies to get outs. He uses an 84 MPH fastball with a slow curveball, mediocre change and slider that do not strike much fear into opposing hitters. Hernandez will eat some precious innings for the Nationals, but don’t expect a repeat of those 2010 numbers.

Jason Marquis, who dealt with elbow problems for most of 2010, will slot into the number two spot in the rotation. Marquis is a contact pitcher with a high walk total who had been durable in years past. Like Hernandez, he will be able to eat innings for the club, but he will pitch to an unspectacular mid-four ERA. Marquis uses a little bit of everything including a 90 MPH sinking fastball, slider, curve, cutter and change-up. While none of them are considered above average, his slider would be considered his best pitch. 

John Lannan is another contact pitcher with few strikeouts (4.46/9 innings) and an unimpressive walk total (3.08/9). He uses the standard four pitches, with his change-up being his best pitch. Like Marquis, Lannan should pitch to a mid-fours ERA.

Zimmerman should pitch behind Lannan. I detail his season in the “Breakout Player” section below.

Tom Gorzelanny could have a decent season as the fifth man out of the rotation, but he has been extremely inconsistent throughout his years in the majors. Unlike most of the other starters, Gorzelanny has the ability to record strikeouts and pitch to both right- and left-handed hitters. Gorzelanny does struggle with his command, but his walk totals have not correlated with how well he has pitched during a given year. Gorzelanny won’t be making any All-Star teams, but he might be one of the better pitchers on the staff by the time the season ends. 

BULLPEN

RHP – Drew Storen (Closer) 

RHP – Tyler Clippard

LHP – Sean Burnett 

RHP – Henry Rodriguez 

LHP – Doug Slaten 

RHP – Todd Coffee   

RHP – Collin Balester or Craig Stammen 

Many of the Nationals pitchers in the bullpen put up career numbers in 2010 and other scouts don’t see them having the same years. I, on the other hand, feel like some of the group may surprise again.

Drew Storen will get an opportunity to close to begin the season. Storen throws a 93-96 MPH fastball, a very good slider and above average curveball. His stuff translates into closing, having 8.47 K/9, and is currently the best Nationals’ best option.

Tyler Clippard might get some save opportunities if Storen struggles early on. He has posted some impressive strikeout rates over the last two years, while overcoming a high walk total. Some aren’t as high on Clippard as I am, and I think he will establish himself as one of the better relievers in baseball.

Sean Burnett has established himself as an effective left-handed set-up man over the last two years. Burnett is tough on lefties with his 91 MPH fastball and tough slider, but can handle righties with his decent change. 

Henry Rodriguez, acquired from Oakland, averages 99 MPH on his fastball. Rodriguez might have some command problems, but he is a solid option in the sixth inning because of his strikeout ability.

Todd Coffee is another right-handed option in the middle innings who can get right-handed hitters out and provide some groundballs. Doug Slaten, who had a career year in 2010, is the other left-handed specialist. Slaten could be ticketed for a rough year after benefiting from a low BABIP last year. Colin Balester or Craig Stammen will battle it out in the spring for the long-reliever spot. 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES

RHP – Chad Gaudin 

RHP – Luis Atliano 

LHP – Matt Chico 

RHP – JD Martin 

RHP – Shairon Martis 

IF – Alex Cora (L)

OF – Laynce Nix (L)

OF – Matt Stairs (L)

OF – Johnathan Van Every (L)

BREAKOUT PLAYER- Jordan Zimmerman

Jordan Zimmerman was having a nice rookie season in 2009 until he was ticketed for Tommy John surgery in August. Zimmerman returned last year and strung together some impressive starts at the end of the season. He will turn out to be the Nationals’ best pitcher this season, but the Nationals will be cautious with his innings. Zimmerman features a mid-90s fastball, a plus slider, curve and average change up. He gets a lot of swings and misses on his breaking balls which should lead him to strikeout around 8 per 9 innings. Zimmerman has good command for a 24-year-old and should walk a little less than three per 9 innings. His xFIP should be somewhere in the low 4s translating into an ERA around 3.70-3.90. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH NOT NAMED BRYCE HARPER- 2B Danny Espinosa (S)

Espinosa should be a pleasant surprise to Nationals fans. Espinosa has some pop in his bat, and some are projecting him to hit 20 HRs this season. He has some speed, but he strikes out too much to hit for a high average. I say he hits 15 HRs, steals 20 and puts up a line close to .250/.320/.420. Espinosa came up as a shortstop, and should handle 2B very well. 

PROJECTED FINISH- 4th in NL East

The Nationals will be in a competitive race with the Mets to see who will finish last in the NL East. While the Nationals’ starting pitching is some of the worst in baseball, the offense will score runs and the bullpen has a chance to be effective. Certain players like Danny Espinosa will impress and should allow the Nationals to finish ahead of the Mets in the division and could entertain the possibility of a .500 season. If Nationals fans are lucky, they could hope to see Strasburg take the mound sometime late in the season. Hope is a dangerous word. 

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Nationals Manager Jim Riggleman told the media yesterday that Jayson Werth will begin the regular season as the number two hitter in front of Ryan Zimmerman.

This won’t be a new endeavor for Werth, who was batted second before with the Phillies and Dodgers.

One of the biggest problems with the Nationals offense last season came at the top of the order.  The combination of Nyjer Morgan (who’s no longer starting) and Willie Harris / Adam Kennedy was one of the worst in Major League Baseball.

With Ian Desmond leading off and Werth following, Jim Riggleman and Mike Rizzo hope to generate a lot more base runners for Zimmerman, LaRoche, and Michael Morse.

This time last year, we’d expect to see Nyjer Morgan leading off, but it appears Riggleman and company finally got tired of his terrible on-base percentage and irresponsible base running.

Rick Ankiel will take over center field duties, but will not lead off.  Riggleman will rely on Ankiel’s power and use him later in the lineup.

So unless something changes, here is your opening day starting lineup for your Washington Nationals:

1. Ian Desmond, SS

2. Jayson Werth, RF

3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B

4. Adam LaRoche, 1B

5. Michael Morse, LF

6. Rick Ankiel, CF

7. Danny Espinosa, 2B

8. Ivan Rodriguez, C

9. Livan Hernandez, SP

Not too shabby.  Now, if only we could get our pitching to step up.  Riggleman hasn’t released the rotation yet, but this would be an educated guess:

1. Livan Hernandez

2. Jordan Zimmermann

3. Jason Marquis

4. Tom Gorzelanny

5. John Lannan

What do you guys think?

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Washington Nationals (2010 record: 69-93)

The addition of free agent Jayson Werth speaks volumes about the Nationals’ growth in terms of the perception of the team as it continues its journey towards baseball relevance. The trade-off from Adam Dunn to Werth may or may not make an impact on the field in terms of wins and losses, but it makes a clear statement about the possibilities for the future.

Sadly for Nats fans, that future is not now.

The team improved by 10 games last year, but it faces an uphill battle to hold onto those gains in the upcoming season. The club lost future ace Stephen Strasburg to a torn ulnar collateral nerve and consequent Tommy John surgery last August. He’ll miss most, if not all, of the 2011 season.

On offense, Dunn and Adam Kennedy departed via free agency, and the front office traded OF Josh Willingham to Oakland. Considering all of these developments in their totality, the best case scenario for 2011 would be maintaining the 10-game improvement achieved in 2010.

The team is very young and, under the best of circumstances, it is likely still at least a couple of years away from competing for a division title.

Notable additions: OF Rick Ankiel, 1B Adam LaRoche, LF Matt Stairs, RF Jayson Werth

Notable subtractions: 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Adam Kennedy, LHP Scott Olsen, RHP Joel Peralta, OF Josh Willingham

The Offense

Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez

Infield: Adam LaRoche (1B), Danny Espinosa (2B), Ian Desmond (SS) and Ryan Zimmerman (3B)

Outfield: Roger Bernadina (LF), Nyger Morgan (CF) and Jayson Werth (RF)

The offense finished 14th (of 16) teams in the league in runs scored last year, and the plight of the lineup became more acute this winter when 1B Adam Dunn left for the cozy confines of US Cellular Field on the south side of Chicago. It was further exacerbated when Willingham was shipped to the Athletics.

The club will be largely dependent on holdover Zimmerman and newcomers Werth and LaRoche. Zimmerman won the Silver Slugger Award at third base in each of the last two years, but he had Dunn as his running buddy in the lineup.

That responsibility now falls to Werth, who will face life outside Citizens Bank Park while trying to live up to the $126 million contract he received in free agency. The pundits are split on whether his power will translate seamlessly to a bigger stadium in the nation’s capitol.

LaRoche has bounced from Pittsburgh to Boston to Atlanta to Phoenix (and now) to Washington over the last three seasons, but he has averaged a .269 average and 25 HR in those three seasons.

The club’s fate will be largely dependent on the continued development of 24-year-old SS Ian Desmond and 23-year-old 2B Danny Espinosa to complement Zimmerman, Werth and LaRoche. They both offer a potential for a decent power and speed combination, but they’re young and nothing is assured.

Desmond showed growth in the second half of last season, offering hope for 2011. Espinosa’s batting average in 2010 was bleak, but it will likely improve as last year’s number was based on a dismal 27 percent hit rate.

Nyjer Morgan went into last year having had a dynamic second half in 2009, but some level of regression was expected as his success was based on an unsustainable 37 percent hit rate in ’09. He regressed.

The question is where he goes from here. His game is speed, and he can’t use it unless he gets on base more consistently. He doesn’t walk nearly enough to be an effective leadoff man, so he’s got to figure out an identity and then embrace it. Many of the same comments apply to Bernadina, as well.

Ivan Rodriguez’s skills at the plate are increasingly marginal and he offers little in the way of production. That said, he doesn’t really hurt the club, per se, so he’ll likely retain the lion’s share of the playing time behind the plate.

The Pitching Staff

Rotation: RHP Livan Hernandez, RHP Jordan Zimmerman, LHP John Lannan, LHP Tom Gorzelanny and RHP Jason Marquis

Closer: RHP Drew Storen

On the mound, with Strasburg lost for the year, it is essential that the bevy of young pitching prospects they have started integrating at the big league level develops quickly in support of veteran Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez had a nice comeback campaign last year, posting a 3.66 ERA, but he’s just not a No. 1 pitcher anymore. Zimmerman and Marquis are both returning from injuries and cannot really be counted on, yet the Nationals are counting on them to be productive in the No. 2 and 3 slots in the rotation.

Zimmerman looked good in his return from Tommy John surgery at the end of the year and is capable of becoming a consistent winner if healthy. He’ll be another year removed from his injury this season, so the front office is hopeful he will remain healthy and develop into a reliable No. 2 behind Strasburg.

Lannan struggled throughout the first half of last year and eventually earned himself a demotion to Double-A. When he returned he resembled the pitcher who showed so much promise in 2008 and 2009.

Marquis and Gorzelanny are back-end options in any major league rotation. Marquis is a ground ball pitcher who seems destined to pitch 180 innings, win 12 to 13 games, and post a 4.50 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, plus or minus. Gorzelanny walks too many batters and, as a result, will always struggle to live up to the potential he occasionally flashes.

Storen should be ready to assume the closer’s mantle on a regular basis in 2011. He had a strong first half last year, followed by a rough second half, but the peripherals suggest his second half was largely a matter of bad luck (high hit rate, low strand rate). I expect he will have a solid campaign as Washington’s closer, and eventually develop into an excellent closer over the next couple of seasons.

Prediction for 2011: Fifth place (70-92)

The absence of Dunn and Strasburg will no doubt hurt the on-field product, but their losses shouldn’t be catastrophic. Werth won’t replace Dunn’s offense, but the combination of Werth and LaRoche should replace the productivity of Dunn and Willingham. There is no replacement for Strasburg, but a healthy Zimmerman should mitigate the impact of his loss.

Desmond, Espinosa and Morgan: two of them will take a step forward this season and help the offense improve, if only marginally. Lannan will win a dozen games. The 2011 campaign won’t be what it could have been with Strasburg in the rotation, but it should provide an ever-improving foundation for the organization as it looks toward a future that includes Bryce Harper, Derek Norris, AJ Cole and others.

Top Five Prospects

1. Bryce Harper, OF
2. Derek Norris, C
3. AJ Cole, RHP
4. Chris Marrero, 1B
5. Yunesky Maya, RHP

Sports Illustrated dubbed Harper “Baseball’s Chosen One” as a high school sophomore. You would think it would be hard for a kid to live up to that kind of hype, yet Harper continues to impress in spite of the weight of expectations he carries on his shoulders.

The former catcher earned his GED in 2009 in order to skip his junior and senior years in high school and enroll at a junior college. In his one year of JuCo ball (2010), he hit .443 while leading the nation with 31 HR. He won the Golden Spikes Award as the nation’s top amateur player and was then the consensus No. 1 pick in last June’s First-Year Player Draft.

He agreed to a contract with the Nationals just before the August signing deadline and converted to the outfield in the instructional league. He hit .343 in winter ball (in the Arizona Fall League) and is ticketed for the minor leagues in 2011 (maybe High-A Potomac, to start).

He is the proverbial five-tool player. There is no aspect of his game that needs improvement…just refinement. According to Baseball America, his power rates an “80″ on the scouts’ 20-80 scale. What most people don’t know is that his arm also rates an “80″ on the scouting scale. He stole 20 bases in 24 attempts in JuCo.

He will need to refine his approach at the plate and the mechanics of his swing in the minor leagues—improvements that will help him to hit for a higher batting average in the major leagues. He also needs work on his defense in right field, but it is a matter of gaining experience not acquiring skills. He is reputed to have an excellent work ethic, so the learning curve won’t be long or steep.

He is on the fast track to The Show, and to stardom.

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In the past three years, Jayson Werth has averaged 29 HR, 92 R, 83 RBI, 17 SB, and .279 AVG.  In 2010, Jayson Werth established a career-high .352 BABIP. This number suggests luck because of his career-low line-drive rate of 17.5 percent. 

Werth’s LD percentage has actually decreased every year with the Phillies. In 2008, his line-drive rate was 22.7 percent, in 2009 it was 19.7 percent and in 2010 it dropped to 17.5 percent. Due to his dwindling line-drive rate and career strikeout rate of 28.9 percent, don’t expect a .296 AVG ever again.

His HR/FB has also dropped every year with the Phillies. In 2008, he posted a HR/FB rate of 21.1 percent, 19.3 percent in 2009 and 14.3 percent in 2010. Since the 14.3 percent HR/FB rate he posted in 2010 resembles his career mark of 16.1 percent, we shouldn’t see much of a home run increase. 

Werth turns 32 this season, so we should also see his speed continue to decline. In 2008, he stole 20 bases with a 95-percent success rate, which is the same number of bases he stole in 2009 but with a 85-percent success rate. In 2010, he dropped to 13 stolen bases with a 77-percent success rate.

Werth is slated to bat cleanup for the 2011 ‘Nats. Even though it’s a small sample size, Werth’s career numbers from the cleanup spot do not look good. In 29 at-bats, he has registered a .241 BA with  three RBI  and three BB versus 13 K.

The Washington Nationals lineup is very different from the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. The Phillies scored 102 more runs than the Nationals in 2010 and the loss of Adam Dunn does not help matters. Expect fewer runs and RBI for Werth in 2011.

In 2010, Jayson Werth had the opportunity to feast on Nationals pitching, posting a .368 BA with a 1.217 OPS against his new team. Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Craig Stammen and Jason Marquis certainly are no Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

The Nationals play the Phillies 18 times this year.

The differential in park factors point to Werth having a decrease in home runs. The home run park factor index for a right-handed hitter in Citizens Bank Park was 120 in 2010. The home run park factor index for a right-handed hitter in Nationals Park was 100 in 2010.

Currently, Jayson Werth’s average draft position is 50.3. You should get similar if not BETTER production from outfielders such as Jason Heyward (ADP 52.3), Alex Rios (ADP 59.5), Curtis Granderson (ADP 71.5), Jay Bruce (ADP 78.2), Hunter Pence (ADP 82.1), Colby Rasmus (ADP 93.2), Tori Hunter (ADP 94.6), Chris Young (ADP 97.7) and many others.

2011 Projection: .269 AVG , 24 HR, 90 RBI, 77 R, 10 SB

Our next “Bust” will be: Rickie Weeks.

Previous “Bust”: Derek Jeter

Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

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There are essentially two schools of thought on the Washington Nationals‘ signing of Jayson Werth. he first school absolutely hates the deal and points to Werth’s age, health history, and small number of productive seasons. The other school sees the signing as a must in order for the Nats to establish themselves as offseason contenders.

At the time, I found myself somewhere in the middle. I understood the Nationals‘ thinking, but I didn’t necessarily agree with it.

But I really did not know much about Werth at that point. Sure, I knew he was a good player, both offensively and defensively, but I knew very little about him as a competitor. To me, he always seemed a little too JD Drewish; I never saw any sign of intensity.

After reading articles about Werth and seeing interviews with the $126-million man, I have realized how wrong my perception was.

You can see it in his eyes. Werth has read all of those columns bashing the signing, he has heard all the naysayers who say he prefers money over winning, and he is chomping at the bit to prove everybody wrong.

Best of all, Werth, like all Nationals fans, hates the Phillies.

Isn’t that what sports fans want? A guy who cares a much as we do. You can’t say that Werth does not care; he wants to beat the Phillies just as badly as the fans do.

You can’t overpay for a guy like that—a guy who combines talent with a competitive fire.

You don’t have to worry about giving a guy like Werth that much money. He is going to bring it, no matter how many zeros are on his paycheck.

And doesn’t the fact that the Nationals took the guy from the best team in our division add even more value to Werth? You’re not only adding to your team’s talent, but subtracting talent from a team you play 18 times a year. No one seems to be mentioning that.

But people are mentioning that Werth has never tallied more than 100 RBI in a season or hit more than 30 home runs. Doesn’t that go against everything we have seen since the post-steroid era? Werth is good in the field and possesses one of the better arms in all of baseball. He is a disciplined hitter who sees a lot of pitches. He gets on base, and he scores a lot of runs (204 over the last two seasons).

He brings so much to the table, and takes nothing off of it. He may not be the prototypical five-tool player, but he certainly has all five tools in the bag.

And, the best part is, at the end of the day, it’s not my money.

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