Kuzul

From 2008 to 2010, the Philadelphia Phillies won the NL East three times and appeared in the World Series twice, winning once in 2008. 

During that span, outfielder Jayson Werth hit 87 home runs, drove in 251 runs and batted .279.

In a roster loaded with All-Stars like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, Werth was often batting fifth in the lineup, protecting Howard who was the cleanup hitter.

To “protect” in baseball terms means that the hitter afterwards posses such a threat that the pitcher cannot afford to walk or put on base the hitter before.

For example, in Philadelphia, a Chase Utley double late in the game leaves an open base at first. Typically, when a power hitting All-Star like Ryan Howard steps to the plate, and with first base open, Howard would expect to see four straight balls before ending up on first.

The idea behind this is that by taking the bat away from their best hitter, the pitching team now has the advantage. However, with a strong hitter “protecting” the power hitter, the advantage remains to the hitting team since the last thing they want is to put two men on base with a solid power hitter up at the plate.

Jason Werth did just that with the Phillies. Batting fifth overall behind Howard, Werth ranked 10th overall among right-handed hitters the past three seasons with an .889 on-base-slugging percentage, which records how many times a player gets on base, minus errors, fielders choice or interference. The on-base percentage is then added to the slugging percentage (total bases divided by total at-bats) to get the on-base slugging percentage.

Werth’s 87 home runs from 2008-2010 ranked second overall among right-handed outfielders, trailing only Brewers’ outfielder Ryan Braun with 94.

After signing a seven-year deal worth $126 million, Werth is now being asked to protect third baseman Ryan Zimmerman in the Washington Nationals lineup that could someday very soon include 18-year-old phenom Bryce Harper.

Zimmerman, who in 2009 had a 30-game hitting streak, has won back-to-back Silver Slugger awards, and is one year removed from a 33-home run, 106-RBI campaign.

In the end, the signing of Jayson Werth, who was being sought after by both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, was as gutsy as it was risky. If the Nationals idea of a future that includes Zimmerman hitting three, Werth at four and Harper at five pans out, then what many writers first believed to be a risky signing will have paid off.

If however Werth cannot do what he did in Philadelphia, then his signing may be looked at as nothing more than a team seeking to become contenders quick, even if it meant reaching for a player who played more of a supporting role than a $100 million contract.

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Welcome to the second installment of seven in this preseason breakdown of each MLB division. The first six articles will cover the divisions, and the seventh will predict the playoffs and major award winners. Each team will have its offseason moves broken down, one major strength and weakness identified, one X-factor selected and then their projected record for the 2011 season. The order of the slideshows will be from last to first in the division.

Day two brings us to the NL East.

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The St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright will have Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and will miss the entire 2011 season. 

While this puts a major damper on the Cardinals playoff hopes, last year’s Major League Baseball playoff participants are faced with questions of their own.

Whether it’s the New York Yankees or the World Champion San Francisco Giants, each of these teams will have to address major concerns if they hope to play deep into October for consecutive seasons. 

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Outfield is one of the toughest positions to rank.  At the top, things are not as deep as we would like, but we are flooded with youngsters who have the potential to join the group of elite options. 

Can someone like Hunter Pence or Jay Bruce take that next step forward?  Can Mike Stanton or Jason Heyward live up to the hype? 

Will Jason Bay, Nick Markakis and Ben Zobrist rebound from disappointing 2010 campaigns?

Let’s take a look at how these questions and all the rest factor into our updated rankings:

1. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies
3. Carl Crawford – Boston Red Sox
4. Matt Holliday – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Angels
6. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
7. Alex Rios – Chicago White Sox
8. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros
11. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds
12. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians
13. Jason Heyward – Atlanta Braves
14. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers
15. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Mike Stanton – Florida Marlins
17. Colby Rasmus – St. Louis Cardinals
18. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
19. Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals
20. Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox
21. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners
22. Curtis Granderson – New York Yankees
23. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks
24. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies
25. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays
26. Jason Bay – New York Mets
27. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles
28. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
29. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins
30. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

Thoughts:

• Andrew McCutchen is a player who has the potential to be one of the elite outfielders in the game.  I know there is a stigma against him, playing for the Pirates and all, but do not let it skew your impression.  There’s a good chance that he moves to the third hole giving him the opportunity to drive in more runs than he did in ’10 (56 RBI).  As I’ve said before, he has the potential to be a .300/20/85/85/30 player in 2011.  Is that something you are going to complain about?  For more on McCutchen, make sure to check my previous article on him by clicking here. 
• While Carlos Gonzalez may not be able to replicate a .384 BABIP, he still brings 30/100/100/30 potential.  What exactly is there not to like about that?  He’s a Top 10 overall option and a great pick in all formats.
• I know there are people who think extremely highly of Josh Hamilton, but I don’t see him as a Top 5 outfielder.  The risk of injury is always going to hang over him, and he also benefited from an unrealistic .390 BABIP.  He’s an extremely good option, but I would keep your expectations in check.  For more on Hamilton and why I don’t see him as a first-round option, click here. 
• With Jayson Werth’s move to Washington his value has to take a bit of a hit.  Of his 87 home runs over the past three years, 50 of them have come at Citizens Bank Ballpark.  You also have to consider the fact that the supporting cast around him is just not going to be what it was in Philadelphia.  You also can’t expect him to replicate a .296 average (.352 BABIP), as he is a career .272 hitter.  All in all he’s a nice player, but someone that should be viewed as an OF2.
• There certainly is a risk hovering over Jason Bay given his injuries and inabilities in 2010, but I wouldn’t shy away from him.  He has as much upside as anyone and, assuming he can fully come back from his 2010 concussions, he should reemerge as a solid option.  I’ve already stated that he has the potential to produce similar numbers to Hunter Pence, yet at least seven rounds later.  For more on this comparison, click here. 
• Not a believer in Mike Stanton as a Top 20 outfielder?  He has already proven that he has Major League power by hitting 22 HR in 396 AB in ’10.  I know the strikeouts are concerning, but he clearly has the makings of being Adam Dunn v2.0.  Is there anyone who would complain about that?  He’s certainly worth grabbing, especially considering how many players actually have the potential to hit 40 HR at this point.
• Does anyone really expect Jose Bautista to replicate his 2010 performance?  Just keep that in mind.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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So far, I’ve taken quite a beating on my predictions for the American League.  Choosing the Rays to finish last in the AL East stirred up a little bit of debate.  But, hey, it’s all part of the game.  Everyone makes their bold predictions, and that’s mine for the upcoming season.

Will I be correct?

Probably not, but it never hurts to make a bold prediction. 

Now, I will continue with naming my predictions for the worst teams in the National League.  I can promise all of you this: these predictions certainly won’t be as bold as my picking the Rays.  It’s widely assumed that these teams will be the lower tier of the National League.

NL East

It’s pretty safe to say that the Phillies won’t be anywhere near last place this season.  Their stacked rotation will leave the rest of the NL East baffled and fighting for second in the division.

With that being said, the fight for second should be won by the Atlanta Braves, entering their first season without Bobby Cox in quite some time.

Even with an unhealthy Chipper Jones, they stand to be a top team in the National League.  Just imagine if he stays healthy and is productive.  That could be a pretty formidable lineup.

I really believe the Nationals are getting better.  I may be one of the only people around the league who thinks so, but they’re doing good things in Washington.  The addition of Jayson Werth may have been questionable, but they solidified the middle of the order.

The Nationals’ young rotation will come into its own this year, and pitch them to a third-place finish in the tough NL East.

That leaves the Marlins and Mets.

Outside of Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins don’t have much star power.  Sure, they have a big up-and-comer in Mike Stanton, but it’s really too early to call him a star. 

The rotation is a question mark, but their lineup will score a few runs.  Fortunately for them, the Mets are in their division.

The Mets will come in last in the NL East this season.  The Jose Reyes extension could become a distraction for a team that already doesn’t play very well in the first place.

Luis Castillo is getting up there in age, as is Carlos Beltran, and they will be without ace Johan Santana for the majority of the first half. 

A rotation led by R.A. Dickey and the injury-ridden Chris Young definitely won’t win you many games.

NL Central

The NL Central has three teams that could all make a run at the division crown, but I believe that the Reds will repeat as champs. 

Their young stars are finally showing their worth, and the fireballing Aroldis Chapman will be more of an impact arm in his first full season.

Second place in the division, and the Wild Card, will come down to the Cardinals and Brewers.  The Brewers revamped pitching staff will be very successful this season, but the consistency of the lineup remains to be seen.

The Cardinals are the National League’s version of the Minnesota Twins.  They always play the game the right way, they win every single year, and they aren’t out of the race until the last day of the season. 

This experience alone could win them second place in the NL Central.

However, I think the Brewers will be behind the Reds, with the Cardinals in the third.

The Cubs will be in fourth this season.  They clearly aren’t as good as the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals, yet they are nowhere near as awful as the Astros and Pirates.  This fact alone puts them in fourth place.

Between the Astros and Pirates, I see the Pirates coming in last place yet again.  They have 18 consecutive losing seasons, and figure to make it 19 in 2011.

The infield defense will be anchored by Lyle Overbay at first, with Neil Walker, Ronny Cedeno and Pedro Alvarez playing second, short and third, respectively. 

Young star Andrew McCutchen will be in control of the outfield, and will be accompanied by left fielder Jose Tabata and right fielder Garret Jones.  There really isn’t a big power threat anywhere in the lineup.

The rotation will be led by left-hander Paul Maholm, assuming he isn’t traded away.  After Maholm, the Pirates have Kevin Correia, Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Olsen, and Charlie Morton. 

It’s pretty easy to see why the Pirates will be last in the NL Central, and probably last in the entire National League as well.

NL West

This division may be the easiest prediction I will make this season.

The defending World Series champs certainly won’t come in last.  Their pitching is more than solid and their lineup will score some runs.

I believe the Rockies will come in second.  They can definitely score a ton of runs, and the pitching should be stable enough to keep them in ballgames.

There will be a battle for third place between the Dodgers and Padres, but I think the Dodgers win it because without the bat of Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres are left without a proven Major League hitter.

That leaves the Diamondbacks. 

The D’Backs are solid up the middle of the field with Miguel Montero, Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young. 

With Justin Upton in right field, the team will be pretty solid defensively.  After trading away Mark Reynolds, though, they may have an issue scoring runs this season.

Upton will bounce back from a down year and produce in the middle of the lineup. 

The starting rotation is the weakest point of this team, though.

The staff ace, by default, is left-hander Joe Saunders.  The final four spots will be left up to five men in Spring Training.  Ian Kennedy, Zack Duke, Bobby Enright, Armando Galarraga, and Dan Hudson will battle it out. 

No matter who makes the staff, I don’t predict any starter to win more than 12 games for the D’Backs this season.

It’s gonna be a long season in the desert.

Tough Races Ahead

Although the National League will have its share of bad teams, there figure to be tight races this summer.

The Phillies will run away with the NL East, but the NL Central will be close, as always, and so will the NL West.

It’s tough to say whether the Giants can repeat as NL champs, and its even tougher to say that the Phillies will dethrone them.  With so many good teams in the National League, it should be an interesting season.

If your favorite team happens to be one mentioned in my two-part story then, well, better luck next season.

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As pitchers and catchers report to their respective Spring Training sites, optimism reigns supreme, from Florida to Arizona.

Every team believes, with just a few breaks, it can make a run at the playoffs. The harsh realities of June and July, and the dog days of August are inconsequential this time of year.

Of course, with hopeless optimism comes the inevitable whisper of doubt. Each National League organization, from the pitching rich Phillies, to the perennially hopeless Pirates, has its share of question marks. 

Which teams answer these questions most effectively could be the ones playing deep into October.

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In a couple of weeks, the next savior of the Washington Nationals will trot onto the rich green Florida grass in rural Viera and begin the process of trying to live up to both his reputation and his $126 million contract.

Jayson Werth, who in his four seasons in Philadelphia averaged .282/.380/.506 with 29 homers and 90 RBI in a 550 at-bat season, is expected to take over for Adam Dunn and bat cleanup for the Washington Nationals in 2011.

Anything less than .300/.380/.500 with 30 homers, 100 RBI and 20 or so stolen bases could be considered a failure.

I have never given the possibility of a Jayson Werth regression a second thought. Since he signed with Philadelphia four years ago, he has been remarkably consistent. There was no reason, I thought, to suggest that he wouldn’t do for the Nationals what he did for the Phillies.

Right?

But today—for the first time since his signing—it dawned on me that Werth was leaving that veritable band-box that is Citizens Bank Park and is moving to the far more spacious Nationals Park. Now, to be sure, the Nationals aren’t playing in RFK Stadium any more, but unlike in Philadelphia, high-powered bunts don’t go for home runs.

How will playing his home games away from Citizens Bank Park affect Jayson Werth? Was he—like so many other sluggers over the years—a product of his surroundings?

Here are Werth’s home and away splits since 2007—his first year with Philadelphia—expanded to a full 162-game major league season for easier comparison:

Home: .292/.386/.506, 31 home runs, 97 RBI

Away: .262/.379/.474, 26 home runs, 80 RBI

Most major league hitters have better statistics at home, some marginally, some significantly. It’s simply easier to get out of your own bed and head to a park where sheer repetition has made it easier to succeed at the plate.

So some of Werth’s better home stats are as a result of simply feeling more comfortable, and batting average and on-base percent are more a product of comfort than environment. But the additional home runs and RBI are probably the result of the closer outfield fences in Philadelphia.

My guess is that three or four of those homers, and perhaps 10 of the RBI, were rewards for playing at Citizens Bank Park. If that is the only difference in production for Werth in Washington this season, there is no reason to worry.

But there is more.

In his first two seasons with the Phillies, Werth’s statistics were better on the road. In 2007 and 2008, he hit 20 home runs and drove in 58 runs away from Philadelphia, while garnering just 12 homers and 50 RBI at home.

In his last two seasons—when Jayson Werth became a star—he was dominant at home. Though his batting average and on-base percent were the same (.270, .380), his slugging average was 125 points higher at home (.560). He also hit 15 more home runs at Citizens Bank Park and drove in 23 more runs (39, 104).

Why the difference? In his first two seasons, he was a part-time player, while he played every day in 2009 and 2010. Other than that, everything else seems the same.

Was there a bump in the numbers playing in Philadelphia?

Here are Werth’s home and away splits in his four seasons before he joined the Phillies, two in Toronto and two with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Again, they are expanded to represent a full 162-game season for comparison purposes:

Home: .250/.340/.410, 21 home runs, 90 RBI

Away: .245/.335/.430, 20 home runs, 82 RBI

Playing at the Rogers Centre and Dodger Stadium, his production at home and on the road was almost identical. This, of course, was a different Jayson Werth. He was still having injury problems and had not yet played enough at the major league level to polish his skills.

Still, he was the same hitter on the road that he was at home.

In the end, I think playing all those games at Citizens Bank Park did indeed tweak Werth’s offensive production. But by how much, I cannot say. I doubt there will be a significant drop off, but it will be obvious.

What can we expect from Werth in 2011? I think .290/.380/.490 with 26 homers and 100 RBI along with 20 stolen bases seems about right. No, those are not Adam Dunn numbers, but then Adam Dunn doesn’t have Jayson Werth’s defensive numbers either.

As long as Werth plays the defense we all expect and his offense is similar to what he hit in Philadelphia, Nationals’ fans and the team’s front office will be quite happy with his signing. Hopefully, the $126 million will never come up again.

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Since the franchise’s move to the Nation’s capital in 2005, the Washington Nationals have had relatively quiet off-seasons. In 2010, the Nats bucked that trend in a big way.

Gone are Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham and their unsightly attempts at defense. In are the smooth-fielding Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche.

If Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan can play up to their potential defensively, Washington should be one of the better defensive teams in the NL.

With the additions of Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Matt Stairs to Mike Morse and Wilson Ramos, the Nats may finally have a bench they can count on.

The National’s have had bullpen problems since that magical 2005 season, but 2011 looks to be the end of that nightmarish run.

The Nats’ already lethal triumvirate of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett has been bolstered by the arrival of the flame-throwing Henry Rodriguez, who seems to have solved the control problems that plagued him in Oakland.

And don’t underestimate the recoveries of Jordan Zimmermann and Jason Marquis. After missing nearly all of last year with injuries, the two talented hurlers could be like found money in 2011.

If Livan Hernandez and John Lannan can pick up where they left off in 2010, the Nationals may have one of the deepest staffs in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, those are gigantic ifs.

For all the moves that Nationals did make, there was just as many that they failed to get done.

The team still lacks a top of the line starting pitcher, despite the best efforts of GM Mike Rizzo. And the Nationals will struggle to fill the power void left by big Adam Dunn.

Make no mistake, while the Nationals will be improved, they will still struggle to win 80 games in 2011.

But it should be fun to watch, despite the absence of a Mr. Strasburg. But fear not, he’ll be back in 2012—with his friend Bryce.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Dominic Brown’s future in the Major Leagues is bright.  He’s 6’5, has speed, quickness, baseball instincts, and is looked at as a “five-tool” player. 

However, the Phillies need to recognize where Brown is at in his career before they throw him into a starting role, or should I say the lion’s den.

Here’s some reasons why Brown will start the season in the minors.

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Nearly ever kid dreams of growing up and becoming a professional athlete. However, this dream does not come true for over 99.9% of children. However, in the MLB, there are numerous players that look like they have no business being a professional. Regardless of their looks or size, these players have proved with their skills that they are deserving of their jobs.

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