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Pitchers and catchers report in a little over three weeks. It’s been a short offseason for the Rangers and the Giants, but for everybody else, Spring Training can’t get here quick enough. In this latest installment of MLB Predictions, we will look at players that we think will make a huge impact on their respective teams this upcoming season.

Some of the players you are going to see have already been up to “the show” and some even had significant time last year, but some of the players you may not be familiar with because of the smaller markets they may play in or may wonder who will be taking over for departed free agents. Undoubtedly there will be omissions so feel free to add who you think should be on here. Enjoy!

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The Washington Nationals do not only face challenges from other teams in the MLB, but apparently they are facing challenges from other players as well. 

Washington showed great interest in many free agents this offseason.  Names such as Cliff Lee, Jorge De La Rosa, Zack Grienke and Derek Lee were all on the list of targets for the Nationals.  Each player however turned down general manager Mike Rizzo when talks arose. 

Rizzo explains the challenges in the same respect as the old which comes first analogy.

“It shows the difficulty of trying to build something,” Rizzo said. “The only thing that convinces players to come is winning. It’s the chicken and the egg. Which comes first? Do you win and then the players come, or do the players come and then you win?”

So which really does come first? 

This week, Derek Lee agreed to sign with the Baltimore Orioles and turned down the Nationals. The Nationals had a slightly better record than Baltimore last year, which leaves Rizzo puzzled.  The Nationals showed a clear interest in landing the powerful first baseman, but were again unsuccessful. 

While the Nat’s have landed free agents Jayson Werth, Adam Laroche, and Rick Ankiel, they are hardly what was expected in Washington. 

The Nationals are clearly building up a team of the future with prospects such as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper signing long term contracts to begin their career in Washington.  However Rizzo had a goal this offseason to land big names which could help the team make a push for the playoffs this season. 

Washington has one big target left on the radar.  Reports show that the team is still very interested in Carl Pavano to add more depth to their pitching rotation.  However, another report yesterday conflicted this belief, and Washington looks to be missing out on another top free agent. 

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Back in 2007, the Washington Nationals had a center fielder who had no power, couldn’t bunt and tried to hit left-handed pitching from both sides of the plate, neither with any success. For most of the season, his on-base percent was below .300 and yet then-manager Manny Acta publicly supported him and guaranteed that he would remain the team’s everyday center fielder.

We fans grunted and groaned because we knew he was a bad player and yet there he was, trotting out to center field for almost every game. Acta, it seemed was in love with a guy who had no talent.

But following the season, Nook Logan just disappeared into the ether of poor performance, never again donning a major league uniform.

Sometimes, fans are right.

And now, current manager Jim Riggleman is faced with a similar choice. On the one hand, he can replace the departed Josh Willingham in left field with Michael Morse, a Jayson Werth clone who over parts of six major league seasons has batted .291/.353/.456, averaging 20 homers and 85 RBI over the equivalent of a full season.

Last season, Morse batted .289/.352/519 with 15 home runs in just 266 at-bats. And while he will never win a Gold Glove in the outfield, he has yet to make an error and has a very strong arm.

Or Riggleman can go with Roger Bernadina, one of the few remaining players who was part of the organization when it still played in Montreal. Bernadina—who like Andruw Jones is from the island nation of Curacao—has roughly the same major league experience as Morse but hasn’t fared nearly as well, hitting just .246/.306/.364 with 11 home runs and 49 RBI. 

Last season, playing semi-regularly, he batted .246-11-47 with 16 stolen bases and a .307 on-base percent. Defensively, Bernadina has far better range than Morse but did make four errors last year.

Riggleman likes Bernadina because of his “untapped” potential. He is without question the most athletic player on the team and brings a ridiculously ripped physique to the clubhouse. Riggleman thinks that Bernadina—at 26—is ready to blossom and wants him in Washington when he does.

The Nationals manager doesn’t think that Morse can hit the elite pitchers in the league and so he sees him more as a platoon player, perhaps becoming the right-handed half of a platoon with Bernadina.

Let’s see if any of that makes sense. Here are the two players’ splits over their career:

Bernadina vs. Right-handed Pitching

.238/.302/.357

Morse vs. Right-handed Pitching

.279/.341/.421

Bernadina vs. Left-handed Pitching

.258/.333/.409

Morse vs. Left-handed Pitching

.313/.375/.518

Bernadina is one of those lefties who actually hits left-handers better, so platooning forces him to bat from his weaker side. Morse, on the other hand, hits both left-handers and right-handers very well.

So why would a platoon even be considered? Remember, the Nationals are floating the idea that if they can’t come to an agreement with Adam LaRoche, they will sign left-hander Casey Kotchman and platoon him and Morse at first base.

I think the most important number to compare is how well a player hits with runners in scoring position and two out. Too many players—like Adam Dunn—are All-Stars with the bases empty but end up “missing in action” when the team needs them the most.

And how does Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse fair with the game on the line?

Bernadina: .161/.235/.258

Morse: .350/.435/.500

So let me see if I can understand Jim Riggleman. Michael Morse’s career batting average is 50 points higher than Bernadina, his on-base percent is 47 points better and his slugging average is 88 points higher.

With runners on base and two out, Morse is plus-189 in batting average, plus-200 in on-base percent and plus-257 in slugging.

And yet Riggleman and the Nationals want to give Roger Bernadina 450 at-bats in 2011 and Michael Morse about 125.

What is it I’m missing here?

Certainly, Bernadina could one day become a .290-20-80 hitter who plays quality defense. But right now—today—Michael Morse has 618 at-bats worth of proof that he will hit as good as they hope Bernadina might.

Here are Morse’s career statistics based on 565 at-bats, typical for a 162-game season:

Runs: 70

Hits: 171

Doubles: 31

Triples: 2

Home Runs: 20

RBI: 84

Average / On-Base Percent / Slugging Mark: 291/.353/.456

And I’m not guessing what Morse would hit; this is what he already has hit, just over six seasons.

And to be successful in the major leagues, players need to be consistent. One of the biggest knocks on Adam LaRoche is that he doesn’t start hitting until May or June (in his first five years, he has an April batting average of just .210).

Here are Bernadina’s month-by-month statistics in 2010:

April: .143/.333/.243

May: .250/.284/.434

June: .329/.409/.476

July: .259/.274/.397

August: .255/.318/.439

September: .161/.243/.215

Bernadina was successful in just one out of six months. Other than June, he was a hindrance to the team. In a player’s first full season, September is an indicator of epic proportions. Either the player begins to figure out major league pitching or major league pitching finds holes in that player’s swing.

The above numbers tell that story all too clearly.

Now take a look at Morse’s monthly breakdown from last year:

April: .167/.167/.167 (just six at-bats)

May: .333/.455/.333

June: .361/.410/.639

July: .385/.415/.718

August: .251/.272/.460

September: .270/.375/.485

Where Bernadina had just one good month, Morse had just one bad one (I’m not counting Morse’s April because of the limited at-bats).  And still, Bernadina is ahead of Morse on the team’s depth chart (and I suppose that Rick Ankiel is as well).

So what gives? Even nationals.com’s Bill Ladson isn’t giving Morse much of a chance. Here is an excerpt from his most recent mailbag:

2. Who will be the Opening Day left fielder?
The battle will be between Ankiel and Roger Bernadina. Bernadina ended the season in a hitting slump, while Ankiel had a season he would like to forget. Whomever wins the job will be in a platoon situation with Mike Morse, who had the best season of his career.

So let me get this straight. Two players have terrible years, one has the best of his career, and the guy who succeeded gets the short end of the baseball stick?

I see a lot of Jayson Werth in Michael Morse. Both are 6”5” and 230 pounds. Both are lanky and athletic. And Werth, like Morse, didn’t get much of a chance to play early in his career. Over his first five seasons, the newest National totaled just 976 at-bats and averaged .259-17-78 over a full 162-game season (lower than Morse’s .291-20-84) and with the same .352 on-base percentage.

Defensively, however, Werth was still learning his craft. In his first five seasons, he committed 15 errors in roughly 2,300 innings (compared to Morse’s zero errors in a little less than 700).

You would think that someone with the Nationals would say, “You know, this kid has a lot of Jayson Werth in him. Let’s give him 2011 and see what he can do.” But no, it appears that’s not going to happen.

I have dug so deep into the statistics of Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse that I’m about to hit oil. There is no indicator anywhere that suggests that Bernadina will have a breakout year or that Morse won’t.

As the roster is currently constructed, the difference between a left fielder that hits .240-10-50 and one that hits .280-23-80 is the difference between another bad year and at least the chance for a competitive (read: .500) season.

I’ll bet if I look really close, I’ll find that Bernadina is really Nook Logan on steroids.

Sigh…

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Baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports in the world.   

Before the season starts, predictions are made of who will do this and who will do that.  But, the truth is, that there are so many different things that can and will happen.  Every season, the unexpected happens.

Whether it be in the form of a young player having a monster year.  A mediocre player who suddenly becomes a star.  A veteran having one last kick at the can, or a perennial all-star having an off year.

Either way, these things are hard to predict.  But, I have created a list of players  of whom I believe will fall under one of the four categories mentioned above during the 2011 MLB Regular Season.

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The Washington Nationals have worked hard to improve their ball club this winter.

They’ve signed catchers Jamie Burke and Josh Bard to add depth behind the plate. They’ve also added infielder Eric Bruntlett and outfielder Rick Ankiel as well as pitchers Brian Bruney and Miguel Batista.

They were in talks with Kansas City to obtain Zack Greinke, but the right hander blocked the move with his no trade clause.

The biggest move of all was the signing of former Philadelphia outfielder Jayson Werth to a seven year, $126 million contract. A big bat in the middle of the Phillies order, the Nationals hope Werth can become the main man in theirs.

With the loss of Adam Dunn to free agency, the Nationals need Werth to be worth every penny. But will he be?

Consider these points:

AGE

Werth is 31-years-old. The Nationals are betting that Werth will still be a top National League bat for seven more years. While many players perform well into their late 30’s or early 40’s, there is very little in Werth’s past to suggest this. In 2010, Werth led the National League with 46 doubles. This was the only time in his career that he’s led the league in anything.

At his age, hitters have reached their prime. Worth has never hit .300 and he’s never driven in 100 runs. This, while hitting in a Phillies lineup where he was the one being pitched to.

PROTECTION

Please don’t get the idea that I don’t think Werth is a special hitter. He certainly is. He was an All-Star in 2009 and twice has received votes for MVP. The problem in Washington is finding someone to protect him in the line up. Werth helped provide that protection for Ryan Howard with the Phillies. With no one to provide that help with the Nationals, pitchers will pitch around Werth.

INJURIES

While Werth has been healthy enough to play over 150 the last two seasons, Werth has had only one other season where he’s played more than 102 games.

Jayson Werth could end up being worth every penny he’s getting in Washington. Hopefully, Bryce Harper will be in the big leagues soon enough to team with Werth in that offense. The team has, however, taken a gamble. Let’s hope they haven’t rolled snake eyes.

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The Jayson Werth signing has been bothering me since it was announced.

I understand the Nationals are looking forward, and with the loss of Stephen Strasburg for 2011, they feel they need a big name to energize the fan base. They realize a great ballpark alone will not draw forever. When Nationals Park opened in 2008, the attendance was 29,000 per game. Since then, it has dropped to about 22,500 per game.

The Nationals’ front office and ownership realize that realistically, Bryce Harper has to be at least a couple of years and probably more away from contributing at the big league level. And although Stephen Strasburg seems to progressing with his rehab on schedule, the organization has to be holding its collective breath awaiting his anticipated return in 2012.

But committing a seven year, $126 million deal to a player who has played over 135 games only twice in his career? Really? And Werth is soon to be 32, folks. Not 22, but 32. Think about that. Werth has only had more than 420 at bats in a season twice in his career.

Werth was a very productive player the past two years in a loaded Phillies lineup. He spent the greater part of 2010 hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard. Everybody agrees Ryan Zimmerman is a very good player on the upside of his career, but Zimmerman and Werth cannot do it alone for the Nationals. Having Nyjer Morgan and Ian Desmond in the lineup is just not as intimidating to opposing pitchers as seeing a lineup with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

There should definitely be more opportunities to pitch around Werth and make him prove he can be patient in a less potent lineup. His average of 153 strikeouts the last two seasons is definitely reason for concern.

He will definitely have much more pressure to provide protection for teammates rather then receiving protection from guys like Howard and Ibanez. In short, he, along with Zimmerman, will be “the guys”. It will not be like it was on the Phillies where he was one good hitter among many. Guys like Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ibanez will no longer be there to pick up the slack.

With 75 extra base hits in 2010, Werth certainly played at the level of an $18 million player. But looking three or four years down the road, it’s hard to imagine a 36 year old Jayson Werth producing anywhere near the $18 million level.

Time will tell, as it always does. If Werth produces to his contract, Harper lives up to the hype, Strasburg recovers to his early 2010 form and Zimmerman signs an extension, the Nationals could be a force to be reckoned with in three or four years.

If the Nationals are not a team to be reckoned four years from now, Jayson Werth is sure to receive a great deal of the blame from fans.

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Initially, when hearing a productive and established player such as Jayson Werth signed with the Washington Nationals, it was bewildering.

The Nationals had stunk for years now with the only shining start, pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg already out for the entire 2011 season, as he needed Tommy John surgery. Not good news for any pitcher, especially a 21-year-old as the blame is on the organization. The Nationals’ meager fanbase turned up in droves for Strasburg, only to have him taken away—an all-too-common theme since settling in Washington five years ago.

Regardless, the Nats’ 2010 record speaks for itself, as it was the NL East’s worst finish with 69 wins and 93 losses. At home, they were above .500 closing out 41-40; but on the road, 28-53 is nauseating and not numbers that draw big stars.

Then consider facing the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, the unpredictable New York Mets and the up-and-coming Florida Marlins 18 games a season doesn’t help the Nationals’ cause either.

With crappy stats the only resolve is to go after a semi-star, like Werth, then pay up with a big contract. Werth is a star but he not the same level as Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee, making the dollars number so outrageous that the player will at least meet with you. The Nationals came with a plan, first by promising Werth that his money would not cap out the club, as the Nats pockets ran deeper to find him some more help.

That is still just talk about things that had not happened yet, and it is the Nationals making it easier said then done. What must have caught Werth’s attention was the Nationals farm system because this club is stacked for the next few seasons.

I guess sucking for so long does have its positives—just look at the Tampa Bay Rays, who made a 180 from bad right into the World Series in what seemed like nano-years.

Unlike down in Tampa Bay, the Nationals claim to have money to spend. So, presumably holes can be filled and if not by the green, then the Nats can head on down to the farm.

Remember that quality not quantity does apply here, meaning talent doesn’t come in numbers so it is taking a chance. Any club who wants to win now has to think like the Yankees or Red Sox. The one or two times trading works out has usually been the difference maker for a successful season.

So, who are these youngsters? Other than Strasburg, I watched the other three in the Arizona Fall League and each caught my eye.

Stephen Strasburg, SP 

The most hyped rookie in MLB history. Strasburg is an outstandingly talented pitcher that every baseball fan salivated over during his brief stint in 2010. This is a special kid, as he won games, is only 22-years old, sold 78,00 jerseys in June and literally filled an empty Nationals ballpark. In his first 68 innings pitched in the bigs, Strasburg finished with a 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts.

Bryce Harper, OF 

The 2010 No. 1 draft pick will be just 19 on his next birthday. Harper bats with plus-power, attacks pitches and can hit to the opposite field. He already possesses the ability to make changes at the plate and has an above-average throwing arm in the outfield. This kid will make his debut in 2011 and you can bet Harper will be a superstar.

Derek Norris, C

Norris is 21-years old, hits with power, has long at-bats and draws ample walks. Norris has a strong arm, but mechanics and technique need some improvement but experience can fix any slight flaws. Keeps getting better. 

Eury Perez, CF

Perez is the pest opposing teams dread because this kid can steal bases like you read about. Finishing with 64 steals, ranking second in the minors. Perez doesn’t hit home runs, but can get on base so fast, turning a single into a triple. Nice addition to break up any team’s batting order.

More young talent to look for in Washington…Pitchers: A.J. Cole, Sammy Solis, Robbie Ray and don’t forget 2009 rookie tandem of SS Ian Desmond and 2B Danny Espinosa, who showed serious potential in the infield.

This leaves the question, would it be a smart move to add some more experience for balance, at least mentally in the Nationals’ clubhouse? Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman will at least help, but he didn’t do much in 2010 motivation-wise.

It might sound crazy, but the Nats can learn from the Rays’ mistakes. Tampa possessed an exceptionally rare group of talent troubled by immaturity, particularly after losing the 2008 World Series and playing like sore losers in 2009. Veteran players can handle the pressure and leadership is essential in any sport.

Maybe Jayson Werth just got richer, but he could just be the smartest free agent this offseason.

Practice makes perfect, but it takes patience and looking forward the Nats could be the team to beat in the NL in 2012 season.

It looks like things are about to change in the Nation’s capital. Young, talented and hungry are a dangerous combination.

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Chien-Mang Wang is a National again this year.  To many it may be surprising that he even was a National last year considering he never pitched an inning.  Wang must have made strides rehabbing last year though because he was offered and accepted a $1 million contract (with $5 million in incentives) from the Nationals.  

This deal is a very savvy move by Nationals GM Mike Rizzo because the Nationals have added a pitcher that has good upside for a very low price.  If Wang can reach the pitchers mound he will easily be worth his contract.

When healthy, Wang won 19 games in back-to-back seasons and had an ERA under four. Wang gained this success with control, not speed.  Wang never was a hard thrower and only topped 100 strikeouts in a season once. If he can pitch to hitters and keep his walks very far and in between he could be a consistent starter, something the Nationals desperately need.  

While this acquisition while bolster a pitching rotation that features Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmerman and a whole mess of others the Nationals will still end up at the bottom of the barrel in the NL East.  Livan Hernandez had a tremendous season last year posting an ERA of 3.66, his last three seasons averaging out to be above a five ERA.

I wouldn’t find it very surprising at all if his ERA went back to his career average of 4.39. Marquis was a 2010 offseason acquisition who couldn’t get an out and is battling for a spot in the rotation.  

Jordan Zimmerman is a young pitcher still struggling in the big leagues who will be competing with Josh Lannan and a host of others.  What the Nationals do have is a young and talented bullpen which had to pitch the most innings of any major league club (545.2), but finished at No. 5 in ERA at 3.35.  However, the Nationals still lack an ace, a solid rotation, and an imposing offensive unit.  

The Nationals offense now finds itself weaker then a season ago with the departure of Adam Dunn and the trade of Josh Willingham to the Athletics for prospects Corey Brown (OF) and Henry Rodriguez (RP).  Jayson Werth was brought in to fill in for Adam Dunn who provided the Nationals with 38 home runs and over 100 RBIs for back-to-back seasons.  

While Werth has had an amazing career in Philadelphia, he played in a hitter’s ballpark with a lineup that included Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, etc.  In the last three years, Werth has hit 13 more home runs and slugging .04 higher at Citizens Bank Park.  

While his power numbers increased at home his average and on-base percentage stayed the same.  With this in mind, Werth will probably be able to provide some pop for the Nationals, just in the park of 25-30 home runs.  While he will be a defensive upgrade from Dunn, he will not be able to fill in the power vacuum left by Adam Dunn.  

The only other notable offensive unit added to the Nationals is Rick Ankiel, who signed a one-year deal for $1.5 million plus incentives which will platoon in the OF.  Jayson Werth and Rick Ankiel are not the men who will be able to rally around Ryan Zimmerman and give the Nationals a winning team.  

Jayson Werth and Rick Ankiel are by no means better then the combination of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn that the Nationals had last year.  At this point I just start to feel bad for Ryan Zimmerman.  Zimmerman will once again have to carry the Nationals offensively in what is sure to be another losing year.

But the worst thing for the Nationals is that every team in the NL East improved in some way this offseason.  The Braves gained power-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla and utility man Erik Hinske while bolstering its bullpen with George Sherill.  

The Marlins signed Javier Vazquez and shored up its bullpen dilemma via free agency and trade.  

The Mets added very few players this off season, but have added Carrasco to replace Feliciano and are looking to a team that features Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes healthy.  

Finally, the Phillies have added Cliff Lee to its rotation to create one of the best rotations in Major League history.     

The Nationals will be a team to look out for in the future with such stars as Strasburg, Harper and Ramos.  For the 2011 season, though, the Nationals will still finish last in the division due to a horrible rotation, a lack of offense and an improved division.

I predict the Nationals will therefore regress this season, eventually finishing the year at 65-95.         

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There has been a lot going on in baseball this winter, so I didn’t get a chance to comment on the Josh Willingham to the Oakland A’s trade. But let me just say this—what on earth are the Washington Nationals doing?

I don’t get this trade at all from their end. The Nationals sign a guy in Jayson Werth, who needs superstars and good players around him to be successful and what do the Nationals do? They trade their third-best offensive player for a couple of fringe prospects.

There’s nothing like paying a guy $126 million and surrounding him with guys like Roger Bernadina and Nyjer Morgan. Terrible. Just terrible.

The only logic I have for the Nationals trading Willingham is that they didn’t want to pay him the $5 million he was probably going to make in arbitration. I mean, that makes sense. Spend $126 million on Werth, who is only worth maybe around $80, but not pay Willingham $5 million.

Why not keep Willingham, hope he has a another solid offensive season and then flip him at the trade deadline when a team might be desperate enough to give them more than what they just got? I just don’t get it.

The Nationals really don’t know which way they want to go. That’s why they will once again finish in last place in the National League East in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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December 15th is a historical date.  In 1794, the United States Bill of Rights became law.  In 1933, the 21st Amendment went into effect, legalizing alcohol.  Russians landed on Venus in 1970. And now, in the year 2010, Cliff Lee re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The signing will obviously not impact our society in such way as the Bill of Rights or the 21st Amendment once did.  And it is doubtful that December 15th will be named a national holiday.  However, this is still a historic occasion for the City of Philadelphia.

The following is a list of five ways in which the Cliff Lee deal has made a positive impact on the team, the city and the fans.

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