The 2013 MLB season is now in full swing, and the Rays haven’t had very good start to their year. Tampa Bay stands at 3-4 after the first week of baseball, dropping a couple of tough games but showing some bright signs as well.
It’s just the beginning of what should be an exciting year for this talented Rays team.
Here are five things I’ve taken away from the first seven games of the season.
Every year, in sports, there are underrated players who break onto the scene with great performances.
And, every year, people try to predict who those players will be. And this year, I have some ideas.
Despite successful 2012 campaigns, these players aren’t getting much attention for a variety of reasons. However, in 2013, they will be getting attention, for some good performances, in fantasy and real life. And then, they’ll be shining in the bright lights of October.
But who will those players be? Well, why don’t you find out.
Tampa Bay’s Jeremy Hellickson is drawing a huge amount of interest in trade talks, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman—and any general manager who isn’t calling Tampa Bay’s Andrew Friedman to try and acquire him, frankly, shouldn’t be a general manager.
Hellickson, 25, made 31 starts for the Rays in 2012, going 10-11 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 124 strikeouts over 177 innings of work.
Winner of the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year award and a Gold Glove recipient in 2012, Hellickson has a career mark of 27-21 to go along with an impressive 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in just over 400 innings—with the bulk of those innings coming in AL East play.
He’s also under team control through the 2017 season.
So why would the Rays be looking to move someone with considerable upside who has yet to reach his prime?
Two words: Scott Boras.
Hellickson is represented by the mega-agent, and Tampa Bay knows that reaching any sort of long-term deal with him is virtually impossible.
Moving him now would bring back a substantial return for the Rays, primarily a middle-of-the-order bat to pair alongside 3B Evan Longoria.
Let’s take a look at five teams who not only have the hitting prospects that Tampa Bay would covet, but who would benefit greatly by adding Hellickson to their rotations.
The most common phrase in professional sports (also the most overused phrase) that players and coaches use to describe a recent transaction is “it’s a business.” As a student of business, I can confidently confirm this brilliant diagnosis.
As a business, the Tampa Bay Rays must first outline their goal for the 2011 season. A successful season would entail making the playoffs, most likely as the American League wild card, and compete in the postseason. Check that off.
Next, they must begin basic preparation. This is primarily training employees and allowing managers to learn the strengths and weaknesses of their people, i.e. Spring Training. Check that off, too.
Finally, the club has to analyze its environment for the 2011 season. The most common tool to assess a given business at any time is with a Five Forces Analysis.
The Five Forces are: supplier power, buyer power, substitutes, rivalry, and competition, but for the sake of relevance, buyer power and substitutes have been omitted. Ticket sales and the NFL and NBA don’t seem to have much say in the success of the 2011 Rays.
If baseball teams truly are businesses, grading and understanding the Three Forces will lead to accomplishing the 2011 Rays’ playoff goal.
When projecting the 2011 fantasy value of prospects with little or no major league service time, their value is tied as much to opportunity as it is to ability. For example, prospects like Mike Trout and Shelby Miller have as much ability as anyone in the minors but will not see the big leagues until at least 2012.
The following list of pitching prospects (max 16 MLB starts) contains the guys with the best current combination of opportunity and ability.
The cream of the crop is Jeremy Hellickson. Not that I am breaking any news with that statement, but I would be remiss in assuming every reader knows that Hellickson is at the top of this list is a given.
The Tampa Bay prospect has produced at every level of the minor leagues posting fantastic strikeout numbers and displaying excellent control. One thing I particularly like about Hellickson is that he has logged more than 550 innings over five years in the minors. He has gone through the development process and is not simply being thrown to the fire. Plus, Hellickson will not just be the best of the prospects—he has the ability to jump right into the SP top-40.
After Hellickson, the fantasy value drops off somewhat. However, the opportunity is still there for the next four prospects that play on lesser teams with shallow rotations. Michael Pineda, Kyle Drabek, James McDonald and Carlos Carrasco are all likely to be in big league rotations out of Spring Training in large part due to a lack of competition for those rotation spots.
Kyle Drabek gets a ton of prospect attention because he is the son of a former major league pitcher, he was a first round pick in 2006, and because he was one of the prospects involved in the Roy Halladay trade. But all that attention has probably made Drabek overrated.
First of all, Drabek may not be able to provide the strikeouts that usually come with highly touted pitching prospects. In over 250 innings at AA, Drabek has posted a K/9 around 7.25. Not an awful number by any means, but it is likely to dip below 7.00 at the major league level. Drabek has also struggled with control at times. Last year he walked close to four batters per nine in 162 innings.
The other thing that concerns me is that all these numbers I am quoting to you come from AA. Unlike Hellickson, Drabek has not made stops at every level of the minors. He has never seen AAA and is now skipping the level and going straight to a big league rotation. A year at AAA would probably serve Drabek well, but after Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski the Blue Jays have only Drabek and Jesse Litsch (career 4.54 K/9) to choose from in order to fill out their rotation. You can certainly understand why the Jays would want to see if Drabek is ready to produce at the major league level rather than rolling with Litsch.
According to Jim Bowden, Michael Pineda is the favorite to win the fifth spot in the Mariners rotation. Like Hellickson, Pineda has produced big strikeout numbers in the minors while displaying excellent control. However, like Drabek, Pineda could probably use more seasoning in the minors as he has pitched less than 150 innings combined between AA and AAA.
If Pineda does in fact end up with a spot in the big league rotation out of spring training, do not fall into the trap of assuming big name prospects are major league ready. Take a wait-and-see approach with Pineda in mixed leagues, but feel free to hope his upside is realized sooner rather than later in AL-only leagues.
James McDonald seems to be a popular prospect here at The Fix as he showed up in Adam Ganeles’ sleeper list in our Draft Kit (BUY IT HERE!) and Jesse Mendelson mentioned him as a potential sleeper in recent article previewing the Pittsburgh pitching staff. And I’m with Adam and Jesse on McDonald.
The former Dodger prospect produced well above average strikeout numbers at every level of the minor leagues (again, I like the fact that McDonald spent time at A, AA, and AAA), and his ability to miss bats so frequently may be why Bill James, tangotiger, and the Fangraphs fan projections all have McDonald projected to post a sub-4.00 ERA in 2011.
Wins may be hard to come by playing for the Pirates and a high walk total may result in a 1.35ish WHIP, but if McDonald is able to strikeout close to a batter per inning with a sub-4.00 ERA, he will be a solid NL-only option and a nice spot starter in mixed leagues.
Carlos Carrasco is sure to have a spot in what may be baseball’s worst rotation in Cleveland. He has certainly put in his time in the minors (over 300 innings at AAA), but he has not had quite the same level of production as some of the other prospects discussed above.
On the plus side, Carrasco has been good in the strikeout department and has induced a lot of ground balls in his short stints in the majors. On the flip side, control may be a problem. Walks have been an issue at times for Carrasco, and he may be a WHIP liability. He is not even flier-worthy in mixed leagues, but could be a useful back-of-the-rotation guy in AL-only leagues.
Finally, Julio Teheran (Braves), Manny Banuelos (Yankees) and Jordan Lyles (Astros) are three young prospects who have tons of ability and would have made this list if they had a little more opportunity. Each guy could receive a call-up at some point later in the season, so those of you in deeper leagues should place them on your watch list and keep an eye on their progress.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.
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The Grapefruit and Cactus circuits are both well underway and prospects all over the league are starting to establish themselves while others have watched their stock slip.
With the spring training schedule at its halfway point, the time to impress coaches and management is now for many of these youngsters. With roughly three weeks to go until teams head north for the summer months, many of the prospects listed below have very limited time to unseat the seasoned veterans ahead of them on the depth chart and onto your fantasy baseball team.
Lets take a look at who made big moves this week and others that fell off.
1) Jeremy Hellickson – TB (LW:1)
The young Rays flamethrower maintains his firm grasp on the top spot this week. Hellickson finally made his first appearance of the spring on Friday, tossing a perfect inning against the Pirates. With a nagging hamstring injury seemingly behind him, the young lefty can really start to lay a nice foundation for himself over the next few weeks and instill some trust from the coaching staff. The plan is to stretch him out over the next couple starts with the ultimate goal of having him ready to take a spot in the rotation once the season begins. Whether that be as the 5th starter or something higher in the rotation remains to be seen.
2) Kyle Drabek – Tor (LW:2)
Drabek is really coming into his own early on in the spring and has many in the organization incredibly excited about this youngster’s future. Over his first six innings of the grapefruit league campaign, Drabek has retired seven batters via punch-out and only allowed two earned runs. He has also yet to walk a batter in those first six innings, which lends credence to early scouting reports that claimed he would have excellent control of his arsenal.
3) Freddie Freeman – Atl (LW:3)
The young man expected to hold down first base for the Braves and possibly your fantasy baseball team this coming season also maintains his spot from last week. With a .364 average in his first five games this spring, Freeman looks more than capable of handling everything that might come his way in his rookie season. The 21 year old Freeman has also compiled three doubles and four RBI already this spring and has dispelled any doubts he wont be ready to assume his role on a team with championship aspirations.
4) Mark Trumbo – LAA (LW:NR)
Bursting onto the scene this spring with numbers that just cant be ignored is this young slugger who is tearing up the cactus league. Trumbo has already mashed four homeruns in his first 36 at-bats with 11 RBI to boot. He does have the propensity to strike out with alarming regularity and still needs to establish his defense, but he could still force his way into the lineup with his hot start. With Kendrys Morales uncertain to return to the Angels lineup for opening day, Trumbo may make it very difficult for manager Mike Sciosca to leave him behind in Arizona.
5) Jake McGee – TB (LW:4)
A slight drop for McGee this week, but make no mistake about the fact that he still looks poised to steal the closers gig away from a group of established veterans this spring. He has yet to allow a run over his first four innings this spring and his ratios have some people in the organization ready to anoint him the go-to guy in the 9th. McGee has yet to issue a walk this spring which is a good sign for a guy trying to lock down one of the most vital spots on any major league roster.
6) Zach Britton – Bal (LW:9)
Another young gun who has made great strides this spring is Zach Britton. Britton has yet to allow a run his first five spring innings and has looked incredibly sharp in doing so. The impressive young lefty hasn’t been blowing people away with fastballs this spring and instead has taken this time to learn how to effective locate all his other plus pitches. He was originally slated to begin the season down in AAA, but if he continues to show out like this he may very well be a part of this young and talented Orioles squad after all.
7) Danny Espinosa – Was (LW:6)
Espinosa is still in a heated battle to make the Nationals opening day roster, but at this point it may be a foregone conclusion. His .407 average in 27 at-bats this spring has been unexpected and he is unlikely to continue that pace. On the other hand, his 2 homeruns and 11 RBI are very real and exactly what Washington figured they were going to get when they gave him the chance to win the second base gig. Expect this prospect to break camp with the big boys and hold down his spot for the foreseeable future.
8) Lonnie Chisenhall – Cle (LW:NR)
Here is a name to file away and keep tabs on. Lonnie Chisenhall faces an uphill battle to wrestle away the third base job from one of the mediocre holdovers presently found there, but hes making a strong case. His defense still needs to show improvement, but his bat has been rather impressive already. With 11 hits in his first 23 at-bats and a couple long balls his bat has proven to be quite potent. Like any young prospect he will need to show a bit more plate discipline going forward, but there is no doubt the talent is there.
9) Madison Bumgarner – SF (LW:NR)
I was hesitant to include Bumgarner in this discussion since he is no longer eligible for the rookie of the year award after hurling 100+ innings last season, but facts are facts and this kid is legit. Many in the Giants organization are hoping he takes his new appointment as a full time member of the rotation and runs with it. Expecting him to slot right into the third spot in the rotation behind Lincecum and Cain is not far fetched by any means. Bumgarner has the arsenal and the makeup to bulldog his way through an entire MLB season with ease. This young power pitcher is ready to shine and he plans to do just that beginning this season.
10) Michael Pineda – Sea (LW:7)
I left Pineda just inside the top 10 this week despite a shaky outing last week against the Indians. He still has some fairly inspiring numbers early in the spring with some real nice peripherals, but will need to show more consistency quickly in order to break camp with the parent club. Pineda will be given a few more starts to show he belongs and the Mariners are hoping he flashes the dominance many in the organization knew he possessed when they drafted him out of the Dominican back in 2006.
Dropped Out: Chris Sale (CHW), Domonic Brown (Phi), Desmond Jennings (TB)
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