Tag: Jimmy Rollins

Reassessing the Dodgers’ Offseason Plan and Breaking Down What’s Next

It didn’t take long for the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ new front office to leave its mark on the city and franchise this offseason.

In a span of 24 hours during the recent winter meetings, President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi orchestrated deals that saw the Dodgers plug a hole at shortstop, replace their All-Star second baseman and dump a former franchise cornerstone seemingly without a moment’s hesitation.

When the dust settled, it appeared Los Angeles had improved its roster in a variety of ways—albeit perhaps more subtly than usual. And if last week’s flurry was any indication, the new conductors of this Dodgers train surely have more up their sleeve between now and the start of spring training.

 

Advanced Metrics

The hiring of Friedman and Zaidi shortly after the Dodgers were eliminated early in October signaled a cultural shift within the organization.

Both staunch believers in the concept of advanced metrics, Friedman and Zaidi cultivated the practice in the small markets of Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, where a lack of financial flexibility called for shrewd, cost-effective baseball decisions.

In fact, Zaidi spent time working directly under Athletics general manager Billy Beane, who gained national recognition through Michael Lewis’ 2003 book, Moneyball, and the 2011 film of the same name.

When analyzing the metrics of the Dodgers roster they inherited from former general manager Ned Colletti, Friedman and Zaidi probably noticed that the defense could use some work. After all, there was a gaping hole at shortstop. Los Angeles chose not to re-sign Hanley Ramirez primarily because of his defensive shortcomings.

A common barometer used to value a player’s defense is a metric called defensive runs saved (DRS). Zero is considered average, 10 is great and minus-10 is poor. According to Fangraphs, Ramirez ranked 29th among all shortstops who played at least 500 innings at the position last season with minus-nine DRS.

When Ramirez commanded a contract that the Dodgers probably deemed too expensive given his age and declining defense, Friedman and Zaidi opted to go in a different direction. Rather than completely sacrifice offense by rolling the dice on a sure-handed, yet unproven, in-house option like Erisbel Arruebarrena, the Dodgers acquired Jimmy Rollins from the Philadelphia Phillies, per ESPN’s Buster Olney

Last season, Rollins ranked 10th in DRS among shortstops with at least 500 innings under their belt, per Fangraphs. He also produced a higher on-base percentage, four more home runs and 14 more stolen bases than Ramirez.

For a moment, it looked like Rollins and second baseman Dee Gordon were going to constitute the 2015 double-play combination for the Dodgers. But Los Angeles then traded their all-star infielder to the Miami Marlins in exchange for four prospects, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.

The major haul for the Dodgers in the deal was Andrew Heaney, MLB.com’s top-ranked pitching prospect in all of baseball heading into 2014. Heaney didn’t stick around very long, though, as Los Angeles quickly flipped the southpaw across town in exchange for the Angels veteran second baseman Howie Kendrick.

Yes, the Dodgers gave up a dynamic game-changer in the speedy Gordon. But upon closer inspection, Kendrick’s .347 on-base percentage trumped Gordon’s in 2014. As the old saying goes, “You can’t steal first base.”

Moreover, Kendrick’s DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season, per Fangraphs. Gordon’s minus-five DRS ranked 25th.

 

Saving Money

Although Friedman and Zaidi now have more money to work with than they ever could have dreamed of in Tampa and Oakland, the pair remains committed to their cost-effective approach to improving the team.

Financial flexibility was lacking within the Dodgers organization last season. Former general manager Ned Colletti shoulders some of the blame for that reality, as does the Guggenheim Baseball Management ownership group that gave Colletti permission to dole out massive player contracts in order to re-establish the Dodgers’ brand following the tumultuous Frank McCourt era.

Los Angeles’ Opening Day payroll in 2014 came out to $229.3 million, the highest in the majors.

Regarding the 30-year-old Ramirez, the Dodgers were simply not willing to give him anything close to the $88 million over four years that he received from the Boston Red Sox last month.

The Dodgers’ top prospect, Corey Seager, plays shortstop but by all accounts, will not be ready for full-time MLB service until 2016. That’s why Los Angeles nabbed Rollins, a player whose contract comes off the books following the 2015 season but someone who should make for a quality stopgap next year.

One of the loftiest contracts that Colletti handed out was the eight-year, $160-million commitment to Matt Kemp. Not only did the outfielder miss most of 2012 and 2013 due to various injuries, those same injuries had seemingly sapped Kemp of his defensive capability. According to FangraphsKemp registered a minus-23 in DRS, the worst among qualifying MLB outfielders in 2014.

Kemp’s hefty contract and poor defensive metrics contradicted two of the central ideals that Friedman and Zaidi champion.

It’s why Kemp was a prime piece to be moved in a trade, and that’s exactly what the Dodgers did when they sent him to the San Diego Padres in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal, pitcher Joe Wieland and pitching prospect Zach Eflin, per Kirk Kenney and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

It also helped that Kemp’s value was higher than it had been in three years because of his resurgent second half at the plate in 2014.

Los Angeles agreed to eat $32 million of the $107 million remaining on Kemp’s contract, thereby immediately freeing up $75 million while reducing the well-documented outfield logjam at Dodger Stadium.

For good measure, the Dodgers recently agreed to deals with starting pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and ESPN’s Buster Olney. The common denominator between McCarthy and Anderson—besides being Twitter-savvy—is that they are both former Athletics and thus catch the eye of Zaidi.

While it can be argued that McCarthy’s four-year $48-million contract is excessive for a pitcher with a career 4.09 ERA, Friedman and Zaidi may be looking a little deeper. Sure, McCarthy’s most recent work was a stellar second half of 2014 with the Yankees. Even that might be an anomaly, though. Historically, McCarthy has struggled in hitter-friendly parks like Yankee Stadium.

But what about spacious parks like Dodger Stadium?

A reasonable comparison is O.co Coliseum, home of the A’s. McCarthy’s ERA during his two seasons with Oakland was lower than it has been with any other team throughout his nine-year career. As a No. 4 starter in Los Angeles, there will also be less pressure on McCarthy. Plus he will be working with one of the game’s best pitching coaches in Rick Honeycutt.

Anderson’s $10 million deal is incentive-laden due to his extensive injury history. But Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register points out an interesting piece of information that gives this signing the potential to be another cost-saving steal for the Dodgers in today’s high-stakes pitching market:

Although there is major injury risk associated with Anderson, Los Angeles appears confident the can provide better upside than Dan Haren, who was shipped to Miami in the Gordon deal.

 

What’s Next?

Whenever a team pulls off six transactions involving 17 players in a matter of two days, it’s probably a good bet that more moves are on the way.

The Dodgers certainly addressed some issues—filling out the back end of the starting rotation, finding a replacement at shortstop and replenishing the farm system—but what’s to say these recent acquisitions will even make it to spring training wearing Dodger blue?

Just ask Andrew Heaney or Stan Kasten.

The Dodgers president recently shared similar sentiments with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

I’ve always said to my GMs, the roster you have in December or January is not the roster you’ll need or want or have in August or September or October. They’re always going to be needs that arise, holes that have to be filled, adjustments or improvements that you need to make. So whatever you do, don’t ever think you’re finished.

One option that has been dangled around the league and whose name always seems linked to the Dodgers is Cole Hamels. The veteran Phillies southpaw will turn 31 later this month and is owed $94 million over the next four years.

With statistically comparable pitchers Max Scherzer and James Shields set to rake in contracts north of $100 million, Friedman and Zaidi might view Hamels as a bargain, and they’ve clearly shown how much they like a good bargain.

The additions of McCarthy and Anderson would seemingly take Los Angeles out of the Hamels sweepstakes, but if the Dodgers are willing to dump a resurgent fan favorite in Kemp, there’s no telling what the team might do if it means a better chance at reeling in a pitcher like Hamels.

Stay tuned.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise linked/noted.


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Grading the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Offseason Post-Winter Meetings

A+

No, seriously. A+. Catcher has been upgraded, shortstop has been upgraded, second base has been upgraded, depth has been added, and essentially all it cost was Matt Kemp and a left-handed pitching prospect named Tom Windle.

I will break down each move individually below, but the main takeaway for Dodger fans should be relief. The joy of having a competent front office is not a feeling Dodger fans have had much recent experience with. But Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi proved their worth in a crazy 12-hour period.

A quick recap:

IN: SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Howie Kendrick, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Joe Wieland, RHP Chris Hatcher, assorted minor leaguers

OUT: 2B Dee Gordon, RF Matt Kemp, RHP Dan Haren, SS Miguel Rojas, LHP Tom Windle, C Tim Federowicz

Got all that? Great, because it gets more confusing. The Phillies trade and the Padres trade are interconnected; according to CSNPhilly.com, the players going to Philadelphia for Rollins are reportedly minor leaguers Tom Windle and Zach Eflin. While that seems simple, Eflin is coming from San Diego in the Kemp trade—which has not actually been finalized yet because physicals are still pending. And each of Kemp (shoulder and hamstring), Wieland (elbow) and Grandal (knee) has significant injury concerns, so the physicals are not a formality.

The Marlin and Angel deals are finalized, so at least there’s no mystery. Additionally, the Brandon McCarthy deal appears to be done as well, according to ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon.

Notes: The following recaps will assume all mentioned trades will be successfully completed. All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

 

Marlins

This trade is the simplest. Per ESPN, the Dodgers traded Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Miguel Rojas and received LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, IF Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes.

Hatcher has thrown 89.2 career innings in the major leagues, and he has seen mixed success. His 4.82 ERA is uninspiring, but his 3.56 FIP and 3.51 xFIP tell us that he is better than that number. He could very well turn into a competent part of the bullpen.

Barnes and Hernandez are minor leaguers. They are quality organizational depth, and acquiring such players is a skill that former general manager Ned Colletti appeared to lack.

Heaney was subsequently flipped to the Angels.

In terms of the players the Dodgers gave up, Gordon is the only potential loss. Rojas was a competent defense-first backup, but he is replaceable. In fact, Erisbel Arruebarrena is still on the roster, and he can be what Rojas was. Haren was not good last year: He posted a 4.02 ERA despite getting help from a .276 BABIP.

Gordon is the question mark. A more detailed analysis can be found here, but essentially Gordon has half a season of good performance and about 250 games of below-average performance. It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that his first half of 2014 was his real performance and he simply suffered through a slump in August and September. I, however, would bet on his overall career numbers being more indicative of the future than a three-month hot streak.

Angels

The Dodgers traded Andrew Heaney to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, per Mark Saxon of ESPN. It is unclear whether or not this was a three-team trade or if the Dodgers had the option to keep Heaney, but regardless, they acquired a significant upgrade at second base.

Howie Kendrick is a legitimately good hitter. Since getting a full-time job in 2009, he has had just one below-average offensive year (a 98 wRC+ in 2010). Additionally, 2010 was also his only negative defensive year. That type of production from a middle-infield spot is extremely valuable.

 

Phillies

This tweet from Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly (h/t Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal) started the 12-hour saga, and it signaled the arrival of the Dodgers’ 2015 shortstop. Rollins is not the MVP candidate he was several years ago, but he is still a valuable shortstop. His 103 wRC+ from 2011, 101 from 2012, and and 102 from 2014 demonstrate that he can still hit, and he actually continues to post positive defensive numbers as well.

By far the most amazing part of this trade is that the Dodgers essentially gave up nothing. Zach Eflin was not a member of the Dodger organization before yesterday, and Tom Windle is a lefty from High-A who may end up in the bullpen.

Padres

Matt Kemp being traded, as reported by ESPN, is the most controversial deal the Dodgers made yesterday. He is a fan favorite and also the most talented of the potential trade options (Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford), but that talent meant that he was most likely to bring back a significant return. Of course, he is also not a guarantee to continue to perform.

The optimism surrounding him is related to his second half. After the All-Star break last season, Kemp posted a 170 wRC+, which would have been the best mark in the league if he had continued it for the whole year. The problem, however, is that there’s no guarantee that Kemp would be that good in the future. In fact, he’d probably be closer to his career mark of 128.

Additionally, though, none of this analysis factors in age, defense or contract. Kemp is already 30 years old and thus past his peak, so his performance is likely to decline as he gets older. His defense is bad: He has been a positive defender just once in his career (2009), and the last two years are two of his worst years. Plus, as he moves to right field, he will lose any value he gained simply from being in center field.

Finally, his contract status cannot be ignored. He was owed over $100 million over the next five years, so even with the $32 million the Dodgers are sending to San Diego, the Dodgers make immense savings (about $70 million).

The players the Dodgers are receiving are not scrubs, either. Wieland does not have much of a major league track record, but he has a career 3.27 minor league ERA.

Grandal, though, is the centerpiece. The switch-hitting catcher will likely split time with AJ Ellis, but he is probably a better player. He has put up a wRC+ over 100 (league average) each season, and his career mark is 119. This compares favorably to AJ Ellis’ mark of 98. His defense is also an improvement, though. It surely has not escaped this front office’s attention that Ellis ranked 99th out of 100 eligible catchers in pitch framing last year, while Grandal ranked 13th.

 

Brandon McCarthy

A free agent, McCarthy signed a four-year, $48 million contract, per Mark Saxon of ESPN. He has actually been quite good over the course of his career—as long as he can stay healthy, that is. He has not posted a FIP over 4.00 since 2009, and he has posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratios of his career over those same last four years. The problem, though, is that 2014 was the only year of his career that he made more than 25 starts.

McCarthy represents a significant upgrade over Dan Haren, whom he is likely replacing. He is also a health risk, but when he’s on the mound, he’s a competent back-of-the-rotation starter.

Thus, overall, the Dodgers’ winter meetings cannot be deemed anything but a massive success. They upgraded at three different positions and added some minor league depth while shedding roughly $70 million of payroll obligations for the next five years.

 

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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Jimmy Rollins Injury: Updates on Phillies Star’s Hamstring and Return

Jimmy Rollins left Monday night’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates after suffering an injury on a triple in the bottom of the fourth inning. According to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, the Philadelphia Phillies shortstop strained his left hamstring:

Although the curtain is closing on the 2014 regular season, Rollins believes that he’ll be back before the year is over, targeting sometime a little over a week away for his return, per Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News:

Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer thought that, all things considered, Rollins has played above expectations in 2014:

Coming back before regular season is out carries major financial weight for both Rollins and the Phillies. Gelb wrote in December 2013 that an $11 million vesting option would be wiped out if the 35-year-old finished the season on the disabled list. The option could come back in play, however, if a doctor finds him ready to go for the 2015 season.

With Philly cemented in last place in the National League East and holding no hope of making the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how Rollins’ recovery is handled. There’s no reason to rush him back to the field, and the team would possibly save money if it kept him on the shelf.

It adds a little intrigue into what is an otherwise dull road to the finish in Philadelphia.

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Jimmy Rollins Rumors: Latest Buzz and Speculation Surrounding Phillies Star

Jimmy Rollins has spent his entire career with the Philadelphia Phillies, winning an MVP in 2007 and World Series title in 2008 with the team. But now it appears Rollins has softened his stance on finishing his career with the Phillies. 

ESPN has more:

Rollins, who passed Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt atop Philadelphia’s hit list Saturday, told reporters that he would consider waiving his no-trade rights if the last-place Phillies “blow everything up.”

‘It really depends if everything is blown up,’ Rollins told reporters. ‘Then you take that into consideration. If they blow everything up, then of course.’

Rollins, who can veto any trade proposal as a 10-and-5 player, firmly stated in March that he would not waive that right, citing Schmidt’s franchise hits record as one of the reasons he wanted to remain with the Phillies. The 15-year veteran reached that milestone in the fifth inning Saturday against the Chicago Cubs, lacing a single to right field for his 2,235th career hit.

Here is Rollins setting that record.

With the Phillies 30-38 and in last place in the NL East, it seems possible the team could blow up the roster and trade several veteran trade chips, including Rollins and Chase Utley. While it would be hard for many in Philadelphia to see such beloved veterans go, there is also the prevailing feeling that the team needs to be blown up and rebuilt. 

Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer has more on that front:

The scout and the executive agreed that second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins are the Phillies’ most valuable trade pieces because they are healthy, playing well, and have reasonable contracts beyond this season.

‘I would say those are the two guys right now that you’re going to get the most back for,’ the scout said. ‘They are both battle-tested players with playoff experience and I think they would really thrive in a playoff environment.’

The executive agreed that Utley and Rollins have value, but he said their advanced age and Utley’s past knee problems will raise concerns.

One place you can probably rule out for Rollins, however, is Detroit, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports:

While Rollins is no longer the player he was in his prime—he’s currently hitting .247 with eight home runs, 26 RBI and 11 stolen bases, hardly elite numbers—he still can field his position with the best of them, and his experience is certainly valuable. 

It won’t be easy for Philly to say goodbye, however. Rollins was a key figure in the incredible era for the Phillies from 2007-11 that included five straight NL East titles, a World Series title, two straight trips to the World Series and three straight trips to the NLCS between, which has now drawn to a close. 

But all good things must come to an end. And with Rollins’ recent acknowledgment that he would likely allow a trade if the Phillies “blow everything up,” it seems he’s come to terms with that fact.

 

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Jimmy Rollins’ All-Time Phillies Hit Record Leaves Lasting Legacy, HOF Debate

Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins is now the all-time hit king in franchise history, surpassing Mike Schmidt with career hit No. 2,235 on Saturday afternoon against Cubs starter Edwin Jackson. After 15 years of borderline Hall of Fame-caliber play, the best shortstop in the history of Philadelphia now has the number to cement his legacy.

Since arriving to Veterans Stadium as a dynamic, athletic and switch-hitting force in 2000, Rollins has been a model of consistency and durability as the Phillies franchise transformed from laughing stock to National League powerhouse. Along the way, Rollins racked up gaudy numbers, but was overshadowed at times by teammates like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Now, as the Phillies’ run of excellence has ended, Rollins is back to where he was when a sterling career began: a standout in a sea of poor baseball.

While stars like Utley and Cole Hamels still remind Philadelphia baseball fans of winning days, the roster isn’t good enough to compete. By next month, a roster purge could commence around the July 31 trade deadline.

Yet, in this moment, Rollins deserves the attention that has somehow alluded a player that will one day be enshrined in the Phillies Wall of Fame at Citizens Bank Park. Perhaps, a trip to another fame will also one day commence.  

As Jayson Stark of ESPN dutifully described, Rollins’ Hall of Fame case isn’t buoyed by becoming the all-time hit leader in Phillies history, but another credential certainly doesn’t hurt. With unique statistics—such as the 400 SB/200 HR Club—each marquee moment left in Rollins’ career doubles as another reason for Hall of Fame consideration.

Upon breaking the record held by the legendary Schmidt, Rollins vaulted atop the all-important hits category in franchise history. As you can see from the following chart, it’s not the only area that he’s excelled and re-written the record books over the past 15 seasons.

Schmidt, the gold standard for Philadelphia baseball players and possibly the best third baseman in the history of the sport, recently talked about Rollins’ career statistics and the idea of misinterpretation around a player with a batting average of just .268, per Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer

“We were kidding in the clubhouse that we have the same career batting average,” Schmidt said. “I think a lot of teams would like to have Jimmy Rollins as their shortstop.” 

Schmidt may have been talking about the present, but his assertion could work across the annals of baseball history. Time will tell if Rollins’ career deserves legitimate Cooperstown conversation, but there’s little denying that a special shortstop has been in Philadelphia for a long, long time.

The following chart shows where Rollins ranks among the most prolific shortstops ever, but it’s almost more remarkable to think about some of the names he’s ahead of on those respective lists, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). 

With more home runs than Barry Larkin or Alan Trammell, Rollins brought power to Philadelphia’s lineup. By scoring more runs than Ozzie Smith or Joe Cronin, Rollins consistently did his duty as a leadoff hitter. In the midst of swiping more bases than Derek Jeter or Omar Vizquel, Rollins added a different dynamic to the offense. 

Of course, unlike many of the great shortstops in history, Rollins played at a time where Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez excelled. Upon breaking into the league, Cal Ripken Jr.—then a third baseman—still loomed over the position.

Perhaps in a different era, Rollins would have been a big fish in a small pond. In recent memory, however, his offensive exploits became mundane to contemporary baseball fans accustomed to productive shortstops.

Rollins’ legacy—both in Philadelphia and around the sport—has been subdued. This franchise hit chase, however, has rightly cast a spotlight on a player that teammates admire for work ethic and consistency.  

After a recent start against the San Diego Padres, A.J. Burnett spoke about Rollins’ path to the record and why his teammate deserves credit.

“You have to feel good for Jimmy during this chase,” Burnett said. “He’s been an incredible player for years and deserves credit for taking care of his body, staying consistent with his approach and aging well. It’s not easy to keep hitting or pitching at a high level as the years creep up. I’ll tell you what, I love playing with him.”

Closer Jonathan Papelbon, upon racking up his 300th career save, talked about how easy it is for individual numbers to get lost in the shuffle when a team is struggling to win games.

“Sometimes stats, like my saves or his hits, can get overlooked when the team isn’t performing as well as everyone hoped, but he deserves his moment,” Papelbon said. “To pass Mike Schmidt is amazing. I love watching him play and playing alongside him. Jimmy is special.”

As the years go on, Papelbon’s quote could become a prescient view on Rollins. Since 2000, words like “talented” and “brash” have been used frequently to describe the three-time NL All-Star and 2007 NL MVP, but rarely are fans or columnists willing to use the word “special” to describe this rare talent.

Now, after years of piling up games, plate appearances and hits, Rollins sits alone atop the Phillies franchise hit list. In time, future generations will look at Rollins and Schmidt alongside each other as the most prolific hit men in franchise history.

Beyond that? Memories of a special player will commence and the Cooperstown debate will rage on.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.comFanGraphs and ESPN, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts. Burnett and Papelbon quotes obtained first hand.

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Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins One Home Run Shy of 200 for Career

Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins heads into the 2014 season needing just one home run to reach 200 for his career.

Coming off a disappointing six-homer season, the 35-year-old Philadelphia mainstay seemed to make a bad impression on Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg during spring training. The issue led to some trade rumors, which were silenced by Rollins, and it seems that Sandberg and the shortstop have settled things for the time being.

With the issue hopefully out of the way, Rollins is set to take aim at some milestones in 2014, first among them the aforementioned 200-homer mark.

Rollins has always offered plus power for a shortstop, as he hit 14 home runs during his first full season in 2001, then fell between eight and 14 homers in each of the following four years. Those numbers, while solid, fell far short of his production in other areas.

From 2001 to 2005, Rollins led the league in triples three times and averaged 33.6 stolen bases per season, while playing strong defense at a premium position and appearing in at least 154 games each year.

Known as a player who provided value with his speed, defense, durability and balanced offensive approach, Rollins rewrote the book in 2006, slugging a then-career-best 25 home runs.

Then, in 2007, he took yet another step, hitting a career-best 30 homers on his way to becoming one of the more surprising National League MVP Award winners in recent history.

Rollins wasn’t able to maintain that power, however, and fell back to 11 long balls in 2008 before posting highly variable totals of (chronologically) 21, eight, 16, 23 and six.

The inconsistency would look a bit better were it not for the fact that Rollins is 35. He’s well acquainted with the bounce-back season, but at this point in his career, anything more than 8-12 dingers should be considered icing on the cake.

With that in mind, we may have to wait a few weeks, or possibly even months, for No. 200.

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4 Teams Who Should Try to Convince Jimmy Rollins to Waive No-Trade

This may or may not be big news but Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins has cleared waivers. It doesn’t mean a thing if he’s not willing to waive his no-trade clause, which Rollins told the Phillies he had no intention of doing, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports

But since it’s not uncommon for a player to change his mind, especially when he knows his current team is actively trying to trade him to a top contender. The current state of the Phillies could also be a concern for Rollins, who is under contract for $11 million next season with an $11 million vesting option for 2015. 

The team has not committed to a youth movement, but barring a strong offseason by general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies could once again struggle in 2014.

The 34-year-old could possibly use his no-trade clause as leverage to get his vesting option guaranteed. It should be noted, though, that he’s not having a very good season (.660 OPS, 5 HR, 15 SB) and any team acquiring him would be hoping a change of scenery and a jump in the standings can get him going again. 

At the least, a team would be acquiring a clubhouse leader with plenty of postseason experience to help down the stretch. Here are four contending teams, three from the same division, that are most in need of an upgrade at shortstop. 

 

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Ranking Potential Landing Spots for Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins has cleared waivers, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. While he did give a clear reason for his no-trade clause to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, saying, “There are still a couple things I would like to be number one on the lists of in this organization … so until those things are done, I’m not going anywhere,” the shortstop would be better suited in a new uniform.

While teams like the San Diego Padres could really use Rollins, the only way he’d conceivably waive his no-trade clause is if he could go to a contender. Here are three teams, in ascending order, that could vie for the veteran shortstop:

 

No. 3: New York Yankees

I know it’s silly to call the Yankees a contender at this point, but they’re never out of the race.

After a long career devoid of significant DL stints, Derek Jeter now can’t stay healthy, and the Yankees continue putting nobodies or has-beens out on the field.

Rollins would certainly fit New York’s mold. He’d be an overpaid, past-peak, once-All-Star veteran and would likely be one of the more productive hitters in a lineup that has the fourth-lowest team average and has scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball.  

In 2013, New York shortstops are batting .216 with an OPS of .578. While Rollins isn’t even close to the player he used to be, he’s still batting .255 and with a .660 OPS, so he would be an upgrade.

 

No. 2: Cleveland Indians

The Indians are fighting for any edge they can get in their quest to make it to October. Detroit’s latest winning streak makes it unlikely that the Indians will take the AL Central, but Cleveland’s wild-card hopes are very much alive.

Currently, Cleveland has Asdrubal Cabrera at short, and he’s been abysmal. He sports a .243/.297/.397 line with seven stolen bases and a .694 OPS. While Rollins’ power numbers are a little below Cabrera’s, he’s got nearly twice as many steals and gets on base more.

Defensively is where Cleveland could really use Rollins. In terms of UZR, by all accounts the most comprehensive advanced defensive metric, Cabrera is the worst shortstop in baseball. Rollins’ UZR (supplied by FanGraphs) of minus-1.9 isn’t 2012’s 8.7, but it’s nowhere near as cellar-dwelling as Cabrera’s minus-19.

A colleague of mine actually tweeted at me today inquiring about Rollins:

Well, Rollins certainly hasn’t been good. He’s been a disappointment and a pain in Philadelphia’s side. However, he’d be an improvement over Cabrera in the average, OBP and speed departments, and his defense—while it has declined since last year’s Gold Glove performance—would be a huge help.

 

No. 1: St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh is soaring and St. Louis is scuffling. And the Cardinals are getting no help from their shortstop.

Yes, he is a defensive wizard at times and is better at fielding his position than most in the game, but his brilliance stops there.

If Cabrera is abysmal, then there must be such a thing as sub-abysmal, and it is reserved for Pete Kozma.

Maybe that’s a little harsh, but his numbers warrant that kind of criticism. His cool .232/.279/.294 line and .573 OPS slot him as the worst in all offense categories on the Cardinals, and he sports the worst average, slugging percentage and OPS of any starting shortstop in baseball. Jimmy Rollins isn’t a premier shortstop anymore, but he’s also not Kozma.

If there’s talk about Rollins potentially going anywhere, most of the chatter has been concentrated in the St. Louis fanbase:

St. Louis needs to pull itself out of its current funk if it wants to take the division over the do-no-wrong Pirates. It certainly has a wealth of young talent to offer Philly’s barren farm system, so if Rollins will entertain a deal, so should Ruben Amaro Jr.

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Why Philadelphia Phillies Should Be Sellers at MLB Trade Deadline

It is about that time of the Major League Baseball season.

Despite having played only a little over a third of their season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders. And with that separation comes speculation of whether certain teams will be buyers or sellers come the MLB trade deadline at the end of July.

One team that faces a particularly tough decision this year is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Currently sitting seven-and-a-half games back of the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves and seven games back of the second wild-card spot, the Phils are slowly starting to see their season get out of hand.

Now, this is not to say that the Phillies are totally out of the playoff hunt. After all, it is only the beginning of June. And of course, it was less than six years ago when the “Fightins” erased a seven-game deficit with 17 games remaining to snatch the division crown from the New York Mets.

However, this is a completely different team than what we saw back in that memorable fall of 2007. Gone are the days of seeing a healthy Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins take the field on a daily basis. The core of this team is six years older, and while they may still have some gas left in the tank, it is safe to say that the best years of their careers are behind them.

Before I go on, I must say that it is simply too early to say that Philadelphia will definitely be sellers come the July 31 trade deadline. Only the next six weeks will tell us whether the Phillies will look to start building for the future or add big-name talent in hopes of a last-gasp playoff run. 

However, the obvious must be stated: The Phillies are a team on the decline. Howard, Utley and Rollins are all on the wrong side of 30 years old. None of the three can be guaranteed to stay healthy or contribute regularly. Formerly the core of this franchise, the heart and soul of Philadelphia’s beloved baseball team, these three can no longer be counted on to lead the Phillies to the playoffs and beyond.

Even the starting pitching, which was said to be the bright spot on this Phillies roster, can no longer be trusted. Roy Halladay cannot seem to stay healthy, Cole Hamels is having one of the worst years of his career and the back end of this rotation simply does not have the experience to take over the reigns just yet.

Despite positive performances this season by Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Pettibone, the Phillies are simply not getting consistent outings from their starting rotation.

All in all, the outlook is not bright for Philadelphia.

So, what does this mean for the team’s trade deadline plans?

Although Philadelphia may not have the best chance to make the playoffs this season, this does not silence the fact that this team still has plenty of talent on its roster.

Namely, Cliff Lee, who has been having an outstanding season compiling a 7-2 record with a 2.45 Earned Runs Average, may in fact be one of the players that Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. decides to deal by the July 31 deadline. 

At age 34 and set to earn $75 million over the next three seasons, the time is winding down for Lee to win a championship in Philadelphia. Amaro Jr. may well decide that if Lee’s age and money is too much for him to stay in the City of Brotherly Love, then it could be his time to go. Apparently, even Lee is preparing himself to be in another deadline trade.

However, Lee is not the only one who could find himself out of Philadelphia before the end of the summer. Chase Utley, the beloved second baseman for the Phillies, may be playing in another uniform later this season.

At 34, Utley is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract and is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. While Utley has been cursed with injuries throughout his career, he is still producing at a level that may interest teams who are looking to be contenders later this season.

With seven home runs and 25 RBI to go along with a .272 BA so far this season, Utley may be the missing piece for some teams who are looking for depth come the postseason. Moreover, Amaro Jr. may feel that he might not be able to re-sign Utley to the terms he may be looking for in the offseason. This might force Amaro Jr. to try and get some value for Utley while he still can.

However, the single biggest reason why the Phillies will turn out to be sellers come this year’s MLB trade deadline is their farm system. Or, shall I say, lack thereof.

According to Baseball America, the Phillies have the seventh-worst farm system in all of the major leagues. While fans love to see the big-name players such as Lee, Utley and Howard play at Citizens Bank Park on a regular basis, most would probably agree that it is time to restock the farm. 

It is clear that the Phillies’ window of opportunity is closing quickly. After a run of success from 2007-2011, Philadelphia’s record has tailed off significantly over the past year-and-a-half. One way to regain this success may well be to start from scratch and build for the future.

Becoming sellers at the trade deadline and dealing the likes of Lee, Utley and Rollins may be the best way to do so. 

Only time will tell whether or not the Phillies become buyers or sellers in late-July. If, six weeks from now, the Phillies were to be right in the midst of the playoff hunt, then you can put money on this team staying together. 

However, as the age and the health of this roster is undoubtedly on the decline, the chances of this happening certainly seem bleak. While it is unlikely that the entire core of the Phillies roster will be traded, it is safe to expect that certain ballplayers will find themselves cleaning their lockers at Citizens Bank Park come later this summer.    

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins’ 2,000 Hits Part of His Enigmatic Equation

The newest member of the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2,000-hit club is a very hard player to define.  Jimmy Rollins is, and is not, a lot of things.

“J-Roll” has been the Phillies’ undisputed leadoff man for the significant majority of the past 12 seasons, the last five of which saw his team make the playoffs and included a pennant and a World Series title.

He is not, though, a “leadoff” hitter.  His career batting average is .270, which would not be such a problem except that his career on-base percentage is .328. 

In a career where he more often than not got 700-plus plate appearances per season, he has never drawn more than 58 walks in a year.

Leadoff hitters get on base any way they can.  Even despite 2011 and 2012 statistical lines that have dulled his brilliance, Ichiro Suzuki’s career on-base percentage is .365.  Yes, his career average is .322, and yes, that certainly explains some of the difference.  But then, Ichiro put the ball on the ground and exploited his speed, something Rollins only seems to do when he feels like it.

Rollins has speed.  He has 398 stolen bases against just 83 times caught stealing, a success rate of just below 80 percent.

But Rollins is not a “basestealer.”  He has led the National League in stolen bases only once, in his first full season in 2001.  He has never been the type who could steal 60-plus bases for three consecutive years like Jose Reyes (2005-2007) or for that matter lead the league in steals for years in a row (Reyes and Michael Bourn).

Rollins has pop.  He has hit 30 home runs in a season (during his glorious 2007 Most Valuable Player campaign) and has 10 double-digit home-run years in the record books.

But he is not a “power hitter,” much as he would like to be.  Tallying 187 home runs in 7,395 career at-bats is a home run every 39.5 at-bats.  As an example, Troy Tulowitzki has 130 home runs—in 2,813 at-bats.

Rollins is a very good defensive shortstop.  He has three Gold Gloves to his credit (2007-2009) and a career fielding percentage of .983.  Probably his defense had as much to do with the Phillies’ willingness to sign him to his current three-year contract extension as did his marginally declining offensive skills.

But he is not an elite defensive player, in the manner of Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel.  Or even Derek Jeter, who has five Gold Gloves despite playing short left field for the past few years.

And while Jeter is being mentioned, it has to be said: Rollins is the leader of the Phillies, but to call him a “leader” is probably stretching the meaning of the word.

Rollins leads the Phillies because when he plays well, they play well.  His 2007 MVP season was not coincidentally the team’s first playoff appearance in 14 years.  In 2009, Rollins led the league in plate appearances and at-bats and scored 100 runs while also collecting that third Gold Glove.

But “leaders” do not have multiple incidents of failing to run out ground balls and pop-ups.  “Leaders” do not show up late to the stadium without a reason.  Basically, leaders do not put their managers in no-win situations (bench the player and hurt the team, or excuse the offense and look weak.)

For that matter, leaders do not put their teammates in the awkward position of having to answer questions about their own poor choices.

The enigma that is Rollins extends into the stands.  He famously chided Phillies’ fans for being “too quiet” during Game 2 of the 2011 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals.  But when fans booed him for not running out a pop-up last week, well, he had a lot less to say.  “Hell no,” Rollins replied to interrogating reporters. “(Manuel) already told you what happened. There you go.”

That’s not “I made a mistake and I will do better going forward,” is it?

Even if Rollins only plays the next two seasons guaranteed on his current contract, he projects easily to pass Mike Schmidt (2,234) for the all-time Phillies lead in hits.  If he can play five more seasons, 2,500 hits and a ticket to the Hall of Fame become real possibilities.

Perhaps only then will Phillies fans finally know what sort of player Jimmy Rollins really was. 

Because, even at this late date, it is still pretty hard to know.

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