When you spend a draft pick or auction money on a player, you are paying for their stats, not their name. So let’s look at a few stat lines that can be had at discount.
I did three 12-team mock drafts on three different websites back-to-back and averaged out the draft position for the projected rounds you see on each player. The stat lines are a projection I expect both players to be close to.
So the starting rotation isn’t the worst, but ultimately it won’t matter how dominant the rotation is if the bats stay quiet once again in October.
In last year’s NLCS, the Phils hit an abysmal .216. The Giants weren’t much better, .244, but they got the timely and clutch hitting from Cody Ross, Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria that Philadelphia was looking for all series.
The big boppers, Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez were just 19-for-82 with 27 strikeouts.
With Werth now in Washington, someone needs to step up and protect Howard in the fifth spot in the lineup. At times, Werth single-handidly carried the Phightins last postseason.
Earlier this week it was reported that Cliff Lee, one of four Phillies aces, suffered a mild side strain. Lee stated that he was behind “5-10 pitches.”
In other words, he didn’t miss much time.
Sure, this may sound like news that doesn’t really matter, but this shouldn’t be brushed away. This is a very serious matter that the Phillies need to look into.
Lee should be monitored and checked frequently at practices. It may be a side strain now, but the next thing you know, he pulls his ACL or needs Tommy John Surgery. Lee was shut down for only a week, but this could turn into being shut down for multiple months.
The fact of the matter is that Lee is 32, and will be 33 at the end of the season. By these days’ standards, he might as well be 52.
It’s not just Lee, either.
Now that Shane Victorino is 30, that means the whole starting lineup is in their 30s. The majority of the starting lineup is in their lower 30s. That is a starting lineup that is just too old to be competing.
Last season was an example.
The 2010 campaign for the Phillies was plagued with injuries. Most of the injuries were not age-related, but they are still in trouble.
This injury could be an omen to the 2011 season for the Phillies. The management and coaching need to act soon. There should be a mandatory medical evaluation that will take place after ever practice, warm-ups and games. Lee and the Phillies are in some deep trouble.
It was being mentioned since the end of last season. The Phillies are old. Plain and simple. The average age will be about 32 for the Phillies regulars. Everyone knows that once a baseball player hits around 32-35, he’s done. Players are only good in their twenties these days, and many people have mentioned this lately.
The aged Phillies could possibly even miss the playoffs, since they are just way too old.
I believe many people will agree with me.
The Phillies won the World Series an entire three years ago. Most of the Phils were still in their twenties and youthful.
In 2011, they are aged and depleted, and aren’t in any spot to compete. Lee’s injury may have been small, but it’s a warning. Philadelphia needs to play it safe and smart if it wants to be contenders, and that’s just this year. The Phillies are taking a risk by going into the season at such a high age. This could be the last season that they make the playoffs.
Realistically, the NL East will be overtaken by a youthful, more skilled team, such as the Braves or the Mets. If they don’t get some youth, the Phillies dynasty could end.
So go ahead and take this injury as nothing, but the truth is the Phillies are old, and this is a preview of the season. It’s a small sample of what the lineup of dinosaurs that is the Phillies is in for.
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Jimmy Rollins has transformed into a huge fan favorite in Philadelphia over the past few years with the team. However, after an increase in injuries and a decrease in numbers, is his time in Philadelphia coming to an end?
Rollins has a lot to prove in the upcoming 2011 season. Known for making his bold team predictions, Rollins might want to focus more on himself this season rather than the team.
Philly fans are beginning to face the harsh reality that Rollins just might not be what he used to be. After his huge season in 2007 in which he won the NL MVP award, his performances have dropped severely. After a season featuring 20 triples and 30 home runs, Rollins has had only 17 triples and 40 home runs in the past three seasons combined. His speed has also noticeably dropped in the past few seasons.
After a career-high 47 stolen bases in 2008, Rollins has just 48 stolen bases in 2009 and 2010. His run average has dropped severely as well. From 2004-2007, Rollins averaged 125 runs scored per year. From 2008-2010 however he is averaging just 75.
This is a huge difference for the man who was supposed to set the table for one of the league’s most explosive offenses. This is a major part of the idea of moving Rollins out of the leadoff spot and into the fifth or sixth spot in the offense.
Ironically, ever since Rollins’s numbers have dropped since 2007, the Phillies have won three more NL East titles, two pennants, and a World Series.
So the real question remains: are the Phillies ready to move on and replace Jimmy?
Better yet, are the Phillies willing to replace Rollins with Jose Reyes?
Reyes is a player much like Rollins in many different ways. When comparing stats, Reyes is nearly identical to Rollins in all major offensive categories. While he has slightly less power, he does have more speed than Rollins.
Rollins has a career average of 37 stolen bases per season, with 47 being his career high. Reyes, on the other hand, averages 58 stolen bases per year with 78 being his career high. Imagine the numbers he could put up if Davey Lopes was still around.
And oh, did I mention that Reyes is five years younger than Rollins?
The only other true factor separating these two All-Stars is their fielding. Reyes has tended to be somewhat of a streaky fielder at shortstop. Reyes averages a few more errors per season than Rollins and has never won a Gold Glove award. Rollins, on the other hand, has three Gold Gloves.
Again, with Rollins’s contract expiring after the 2011 season, he has a lot to prove to both the fans and the organization in the upcoming year to give it a reason to resign him. Are Philly fans willing to let go of their hometown hero? If that answer is yes, then are they willing to bring in a rival player to fill that role?
Both these questions will have to be answered after this season, but the Phillies could surprise a lot of people if Rollins has another disappointing season in 2011.
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Just when you thought the offseason couldn’t get any worse for the New York Yankees, there is now talk of CC Sabathia possibly opting out of his contract after the 2011 season.
Considering Andy Pettitte’s retirement last week, that would be very, very bad news for Yankees fans with AJ Burnett projected as the team’s ace in 2012 were CC to leave.
Sabathia originally signed a seven-year $161 million contract with New York prior to the 2009 MLB Season. The contract includes an opt-out clause after the third year (2011) which would allow the lefty to become a free agent again or pursue an even better extension with the Yankees.
In October during the team’s playoff run, CC Sabathia told reporters that he had no intentions of opting out of his contract. Now on Monday in Tampa, FLA with a new season looming, Sabathia is changing his tune.
When asked if he would opt out of his contract, Sabathia replied,”I have no idea. It’s still in my contract, anything can happen.”
It is possible that Sabathia truly doesn’t know what he will do following the 2011 MLB Season, it is also possible that his agent instructed him to say that in order to get the New York Yankees thinking about life without CC and what they would do not to lose him.
I think he knows exactly what he intends to do next season. Like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh scheming to join the Miami Heat in 2010, it is my best guess that CC Sabathia intends to partner with friend and former Cleveland Indian teammate Cliff Lee and join the Philadelphia Phillies in 2012.
It might seem unlikely, but did you ever think Lee would be going to Philadelphia instead of New York or Texas? I didn’t think so.
Hope springs eternal for all 30 MLB teams this time of year.
Spring is a time of rebirth, renewal and new beginnings. At the first crack of the bat, anything is possible.
For the Phillies, 2011 could be all that and more. The potential of this team is unlimited. But potential does not guarantee success, as execution and a little bit of luck will play a major role in the outcome.
However, the Phillies do have plenty of reasons to be hopeful. Here are five good omens for the Phillies as they begin spring training.
Photo: Jenn Zambri
As pitchers and catchers report to their respective Spring Training sites, optimism reigns supreme, from Florida to Arizona.
Every team believes, with just a few breaks, it can make a run at the playoffs. The harsh realities of June and July, and the dog days of August are inconsequential this time of year.
Of course, with hopeless optimism comes the inevitable whisper of doubt. Each National League organization, from the pitching rich Phillies, to the perennially hopeless Pirates, has its share of question marks.
Which teams answer these questions most effectively could be the ones playing deep into October.
Until baseball starts, this column will be highlighting players I’m looking at for a significant jump in stats over last year.
Week 1’s Selection: Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll is coming off his worst statistical season since becoming a full time major leaguer. He’s 32 years old, had a rash of leg injuries last season and his game is heavily dependent upon speed.
Right about now, you’re probably wondering why I would pick him as a bounce back player for 2011.
Well, I have 3 good reasons:
1) He’s healthy again after a full offseason of workouts and his new found fondness for yoga.
2) He’s extremely likely to be hitting in the #5 spot, which will give him a lot of RBI chances in the Philadelphia lineup.
3) IT’S A CONTRACT YEAR! He knows he has to produce to get paid. Isn’t it funny how that always seems to help?
With those factors and the lack of quality depth at shortstop, I’d safely bet on Rollins being a top five shortstop again this year, with the potential to end up as high as third.
2011 Fantasy Forecast: 85 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, 25 SB, .265 Avg
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As MLB Spring Training approaches, predictions are being thrown around like snowballs in winter.
For the Phillies organization, losing a big offensive star in Jayson Werth was met with the arrival of pitching ace Cliff Lee.
When the opportunity arose for me to make some wild predictions of my own for the upcoming season, I couldn’t resist.
The following slideshow is my five wild predictions for the 2011 MLB season pertaining to the Philadelphia Phillies.
For the 2012 season, it should be a reasonable assumption that the Philadelphia Phillies will contain both Jimmy Rollins and Roy Oswalt. In 2010, Rollins had a down year due to the fact that he spent nearly half of the season on the disabled list. However, it is safe to assume that he will return to form in 2010.
Rollins is a veteran and a star, and he knows what is at stake this year. This could be the only opportunity that he will have to play with a rotation of this caliber, and, beyond the chances of a repeat of a World Series championship, his career is also at stake, as this is the last year of his contract.
Oswalt is a proven ace, who still has yet to lose a game in Citizens Bank Park as a Phillie. He still ranks as one of the top pitchers currently in baseball and finds himself among the best rotation that exists in baseball today. At the end of the 2011 season, there is a mutual $16 million option to stay with the Phillies for the 2012 season. If that option is not taken by either party, we will likely see Oswalt retire, although I think that he would take a serious pay cut to stay with the Phillies before he actually retired.
Rollins will produce a season much more like his 2008 and 2009 seasons to ensure his longevity with the Phillies organization, and Oswalt will continue to hand his command on the mound for this coming season. Expect both of these players to have great 2011 seasons and be on the Phillies roster for 2012.
However, for the sake of argument, let us assume that the Phillies can only or will only spend the amount of money to keep both of these players. Which of these players has more to offer to the organization and would be more worth paying to keep as a Phillie? I think that if we examine the 2010 season, we can assume that Oswalt brings a talent to the organization that would be harder to replace than it would be to replace the talent that Rollins brings.
We saw a 2010 season where Rollins was missing from nearly half of it. Of 162 regular season games, Rollins played in 88 of those games. Even with Rollins missing half of the season, the Phillies had the best regular season record in all of baseball. It would be much more difficult and expensive to find a replacement for Oswalt than it would be for Rollins, especially since the Phillies could look within their own organization to find some to replace Rollins who could produce very comparable numbers.
I am, of course, speaking of Wilson Valdez. Valdez sometimes gets criticized for not producing offensively, but this is not quite fair. Valdez may have less ability to hit home runs or steal bases than Rollins, but he still is quite able to do so. Valdez filled in for Rollins a lot this season, having played in 111 games, still not quite the numbers for a full season, so his numbers would be north of where they were had he been an everyday starter.
That being said, Valdez had seven stolen bases and was never caught in 2010. He also hit four homeruns. With stolen bases, Rollins had 17 and was caught once, so Valdez is not quite to Rollin’s ability, but they compare more closely when it comes to other aspects of batting.
Rollins batted for an average of .243 with 41 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .320 and a slugging percentage of .374. Valdez, on the other hand, batted for an average of .258 with 35 RBIs, an on-base percentage of .306 and a slugging percentage of .360. I should also mention that Rollins made $8.5 million in 2010, whereas Valdez only made $400,000. Valdez is only entering his sixth year as a professional player—although he is technically six months older than Rollins—and will not be eligible for free agency until after this season.
When comparing Oswalt to the rest of the pitching in the majors, he was eighth with ERA, second with WHIP, 18th with strikeouts and 33rd with wins; however, that last stat would likely have been higher if he had not played the first half of the season in Houston. Oswalt’s 2010 stats were a 2.76 ERA, 13-13 Record, 193 strikeouts, 55 walks, and a 1.03 WHIP. With the starting pitcher free agents who are due to hit the market after the 2011 season, only two pitchers can really compare to Oswalt, Chris Carpenter and Cole Hamels.
Even if the Phillies went the route of trying to sign a free agent to replace Oswalt, they would be paying top dollar to replace him or, more likely, sign someone who does not really hold a candle light to what they could get out of Oswalt. If the Phillies tried to trade for someone to replace Oswalt, the cost would likely be too great to either the everyday starters or the farm system. Rollins could be replaced from within at a fraction of the cost and see similar results.
Oswalt would not be nearly as easy to replace, not that replacing Rollins is easy, and finding one from within may be difficult. Vance Worley has potential, but I will not claim that he is Oswalt’s caliber until he proves it, nor would I bet on it. Oswalt is a quality pitcher that is rarely found in baseball, especially at his consistency.
Overall, the Phillies would be better off with keeping Oswalt and letting Rollins go than they would be if they kept Rollins and let Oswalt go. I would expect both players to remain a Phillie, but if we could only pick one, Oswalt is the better option for the team to keep.
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