Kuzul

Even with the exodus of such players as C.C. Sabathia, Curtis Granderson, and Zack Greinke the past few seasons, the AL Central certainly has no shortage of talent. Some of those star players simply don’t get the attention they would playing in either of the Eastern divisions.

This division has sorely lacked parity the past few seasons, with a sizable gap existing between the top three teams and the bottom two, and this list reflects that. Whereas the Tigers, Twins, and White Sox combine for 20 representatives on the list, the Indians and Royals combine for just 5.

Before we get started, two star players not on the list who I admittedly had no idea where to place on this list given their rash of injuries recently; Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore and Chicago’s Jake Peavy. Both obviously have the talent to rank on the list; it’s hard to know exactly where they stand given the trouble they’ve had staying on the field lately.

Without further ado, the best players in the AL Central. Enjoy.

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Introduction: 

“Fantasy baseball leagues are won in the late rounds of drafts and during the season, however they are lost in the first few rounds of drafts.”

If you’re looking at this and are thinking, “Doesn’t that contradict itself?” don’t worry. It’s a tough concept to decipher, but a necessary one to understand before drafting.

An easy way to look at this is to think of the saying: “The best defense is a good offense.”

Now, if we translate the original saying, we get: “The best way to win your fantasy baseball league is to be the best at not losing in the first few rounds of the draft.”

And that should make sense because logically, whoever loses the least by default wins the most.

The first few rounds are the foundation of your team; while waiver wire moves and late round sleepers are in truth the aspects that push you over the edge, you can not get to that edge if you blow your early picks.

A bad first round pick will be more costly than a bad 20th round pick. That should make some sense if you think about it.

So, being that these first rounds are so significant, you have very little room for error; if your star goes down, you will be at a major disadvantage.

So I’m going to give you three players to avoid so that you will not be that team who had all the incredible sleepers and surprise players, but lost because Matt Kemp was a dud and Jacoby Ellsbury missed nearly the entire season.

So, let’s get started. Here are the three players who will frustrate you all of 2011 if you draft them:

1. Josh Hamilton

2010 Stats: .359 Batting Average, 32 Home Runs, 100 RBIs, 8 Stolen Bases, 95 Runs

Hamilton is entering the 2011 season as a consensus late second round pick or early third round pick. Some players around here are Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, Matt Holliday and Matt Kemp.

Seems like a steal for the reigning AL MVP right? Wrong. Hamilton has red flags waving all over. Let’s break it down.

Let’s start with that league leading .359 batting average. Entering 2010, Hamilton’s career batting average was .291. So a climb of .068 points, or just under 24 percent, is something to be skeptical of. Anyone familiar with Sabermetrics will know the following term: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). BABIP is a stat used generally to determine how much luck was involved in a player’s batting average.

For comparison, the league average roams around .300 year to year. In his first three major league seasons, Hamilton’s BABIPs were: 2007-.315, 2008-.33, 2009-.319. His 2010 BABIP? .390!

A .390 BABIP is a number reached occasionally by players like Ichiro Suzuki, and Hamilton is not the next Ichiro. A generous prediction would give Hamilton a 2011 BABIP of .333, his previous career high.

So, it’s quite clear that his .359 average is nearly impossible to sustain.

I will give credit where credit is due—Hamilton’s 32 home runs and 100 RBIs were not a fluke. Between 2007-2009, Hamilton hit one home run per 20.62 at-bats. In 2010, that number was 16.18. Yes, that is 21 percent better rate, however over the course of a 600 at-bat season, that’s a difference of only 8 home runs.

A big deal? Yes. However, it is a small enough difference that we can deem Hamilton’s 32 home runs repeatable.

So, before we introduce Hamilton’s final, most important red flag, let’s examine his best-case scenario over a full, 600 at-bat season. We’ll give him a .310 average, 32 home runs, 110 RBIs, 10 stolen bases, and 100 runs. (The increase in runs/RBIs comes from the number of games missed last season).

Would I take that from a third rounder? If those numbers were guaranteed, yes. However, Hamilton is about as consistent at producing stats as Benedict Arnold is at choosing sides.

In 2008, Hamilton has a very solid season, hitting .304 and hitting 32 home runs; however, his 2009 campaign in which he managed only 89 games, totaled 2 DL stints.

Hamilton has had a sketchy past with regards to drugs and other personal troubles, which makes his comeback story great. However, if your looking for strong, consistent production from your third rounder, I would prefer (I’m saying this as a Red Sox fan) Alex Rodriguez, who will give you third round value even in a down year.

Josh Hamilton 2011 Outlook: (132 Games) .304 average, 25 HR, 94 RBIs, 6 SB, 90 Runs

For comparison’s sake: (2010) 18 players hit .304, 44 hit 25 HRs, 26 hit 94 RBIs, 154 stole 6 bases and 34 scored 90 times.

Don’t forget, Hamilton plays OF, so he also doesn’t have positional scarcity on his side.

2. Ryan Howard

2010 Stats: .276 Batting Average, 31 Home Runs, 108 RBIs, 1 Stolen Base, 87 Runs

Ryan Howard has always been a revered baseball player; he is a Phillies hero and a consistently strong fantasy baseball player. However, Howard’s reputation is carrying him into the second round of drafts in 2011.

If you take a look at Howard’s 2010 numbers, it is perplexing to believe Howard is being taken as early as 15th overall. Howard was 58th in 2010 in batting average, tied for 14th in home runs, 11th in RBIs, 42nd in runs and tied for 292nd in stolen bases.

To add to that, Howard also plays the deepest position in baseball: first base.

ESPN’s player rater ranked Howard 66th overall in 2010. Now, obviously this was a down year for Howard, whose home run total has surpassed 45 the four years preceding 2010.

Howard has been able to get away with hitting .250-280 each year because he has been near the top of the home run and RBI leader boards every year. However, if Howard’s power does not revert back to his career norm, a second round pick would be too steep a price to pay for Howard.

Let’s take a look at the numbers for Howard. To be frank, Howard has been losing his dominance in terms of power hitting over the last three years.

In 2008, Howard posted a 31.8 percent home run to fly ball rate. This rate declined to 25.4 percent in 2009, and 21.1 percent in 2010. On top of that, Howard’s fly ball rate has decrease from 40.6 percent in 2009 to 37.1 percent in 2010.

A final caution flag for Howard’s power is his ISO. ISO is a statistic used to measure a player’s power, incorporating doubles, triples, and home runs. In 2006, his ISO was .346, followed by a .316 2007, a .292 2008, a .292 2009, and finally a .229 2010.

In conclusion, missing 19 games in 2010 was not the reason for Howard’s disappointing production; he simply is losing his dominance.

Without the ability to hit for 40-45 home runs and 130+ RBIs, Howard is no longer a top 20 player and is better suited as a mid-third round pick as opposed to a first or second round selection.

Ryan Howard 2011 Outlook: (158 games)  .274 average, 37 HRs, 128 RBIs, 1 SB, 94 Runs

For comparison’s sake: That puts Howard still only seventh in HRs based on 2010 ranks, although first overall in RBIs.

Those numbers are very strong, but not dominant.

Throw in a very pedestrian batting average and virtually no speed, Howard is no longer worth your second rounder. 

3. Joe Mauer 

2010 Stats: .327 Batting Average, 9 Home Runs, 75 RBIs, 1 Stolen Base, 88 Runs

Joe Mauer is no longer the best catcher in the fantasy baseball. He’s a phenomenal baseball player, but for fantasy purposes, he is definitely not a superstar.

I cringe when I see people taking Mauer in the third or fourth round this year, using the positional scarcity reasoning. I don’t care if Mauer is qualified in every single position if he doesn’t reach double digit home runs or stolen bases. 

Let’s face it: Mauer’s 2009 power was an absolute fluke. His career HR/FB ratio is 10.6 percent, yet in 2009 it skyrocketed to 20.4 percent. Mauer proved in 2010 that his 28 home run season was a fluke by posting a 6.7 percent HR/FB ratio.

If that does not convince you yet, let’s examine Mauer’s ISO. In his career, Mauer has averaged a .154 ISO. In 2009, he managed a .222 ISO.

Need I say more?

As if a weakness in power is not enough, Mauer also rarely steals bases. In seven years, he has swiped a measly 35 bags.

Yes, it is true that Mauer is a great hitter and will hit .320 in 2011 for a fourth straight season. And it is also true that he is a strong run scorer, a quality few catchers have.

However, his glaring weaknesses are catching up to him to the point that players such as Victor Martinez are more attractive 2011 catchers.

Joe Mauer 2011 Outlook: (144 games) .327 average, 13 HRs, 76 RBIs, 3 SBs, 94 Runs

Yes, he’ll be good, although if you are expected second or third, even fourth round statistics, you will be disappointed.

Among catchers, these numbers would put Mauer first in average, tied for 11th in home runs, third in RBIs, tied for 11th in stolen bases and first in runs.

It’s an impressive stat line among catchers, however overall he is truly only a fifth round pick.

Hope you all enjoyed this article and I hope I have helped you make more intelligent draft choices this season. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Minnesota Twins are coming off a banner season.

They won their sixth American League Central title since 2002, opened Target Field, which ESPN named the “best fan experience in all of sports,” and set an attendance record of over three million fans.

So what will define 2011 for Minnesota Twins fans?

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  With all the talk about the 2011 Minnesota Twins, I decided to take a very early look at the 2012 Minnesota Twins and what kind of lineup they could have. Joe Mauer signed his 8 year/$184M contract extension last spring because this is his team and he wants to win a World Series in a Twins uniform. What players will be around him in 2012 and do they have enough talent around him and in the farm system to get him a ring? I’ll share my thoughts on what players will make up their 2012 batting lineup.

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In sports, when a team looks too far ahead or dwells too much on what has already happened, they often fail in the present.  Sometimes it’s off the field issues, sometimes it’s injuries, sometimes it’s egos and sometimes it is just plain bad luck.  A trap season is the perfect storm of all these variables and more.  The 2010 Minnesota Vikings defined a trap season better than maybe anybody ever.

Watching the Vikings plod through their last meaningless game today made me realize that Ron Gardenhire better be careful.  The 2011 Twins season is heading for the classic Minnesota trap season and Gardenhire could be out of a job.  The trap season is defined by four noticeable characteristics.

1. The team has a history of having consistently above average to great regular seasons. 

2. The team fails repeatedly in the postseason.

3. The team is coming off a terrific regular season highlighted by a particularly disappointing and or traumatic postseason experience.

4. Fan expectations (the status quo) are at a peak.

Before typecasting this as another “Fire Gardy” column (it’s not), realize there are precedents set here besides the debacle that was the 2010 Vikings.

From 1992 to 2000, Dennis Green took the Vikings to the playoffs every year except once and never had a record below .500.  He established a series of teams that we fans would complain about every so often, but for the most part could get behind because they were always competitive, and made the playoffs.  This was enough for us as we ignored their penchant for folding under pressure year after year. 

Until we stopped winning in the regular season that is.  He was fired with one game left in the season in 2001.  Why? Let’s look at the list.

1. Established above.

2. Green’s postseason record was 4-8.

3. The 2001 Vikings were coming off a postseason in which they lost 41-0 in the NFC Championship game.

4. It’s hard to remember or even fathom at this point, but Daunte Culpepper was coming off his first season as a starter.  He was a Pro Bowler, threw for almost 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns.  He was thought to be the best young QB in football.  Pair him with Randy Moss in his prime and fan interest was through the roof.

Need more proof?  Let’s change sports and go to basketball.  Flip Saunders took over the Timberwolves in 1995, took a team that never had a winning record to the playoffs eight years in a row, culminating in 2003-2004 season with a trip to the Conference Finals.  The very next year Saunders was fired mid-season after an underwhelming start (the infamous Latrell Spreewell “I gotta feed my family” season). Check out the Saunders File.

1. Established above. Eight straight trips to the postseason

2. Seven straight years of losing in the first round.

3. The ’03-’04 season was the best in Timberwolves history.  They won 58 games and received a No. 1 seed in the playoffs, but were upset by a drama filled Lakers squad.

4. Kevin Garnett was coming off of an MVP season, was still in his prime and the Wolves had essentially the same supporting cast as the year before.  As hard as it is to imagine now, Garnett owned this state.

It is really pretty remarkable when you start to connect the dots. 

Now, do this same exercise with recently ousted Vikings coach Brad Childress and apply it to this season.  You could write a book.

Apply all of this and the central idea behind our motives as fans comes to life.  If you as a coach don’t deliver in the playoffs, we fans only have the regular season to look forward to. 

After years of heart breaking failures in the postseason, we are conditioned place an exaggerated importance on the regular season.  Thus, when teams do run into adverse situations, it leads to decisions and opinions that for the better or worse, that are usually made on emotion, rather than on history.

That’s the Minnesota sports juggernaut in a vacuum.        

Which brings me back to Gardy and his 2011 Minnesota Twins:

1. They are consistently among the upper echelon of teams in baseball, a having won six division titles in Gardenhire’s nine years and contended in the other three.

2. Gardenhire’s postseason resume is now rather infamous for all the wrong reasons. 

3. The team is coming off one of maybe its best regular seasons ever followed by another first round sweep at the hands of the Yankees. This one stung even worse as the Twins had home field advantage and the Yankees were exposed as an aging fraud of a team by the Texas Rangers. 

4. Fan interest, which is always high for the Twins, will be at a fever pitch come spring.  With the collapse (literally and figuratively) of the Vikings this year coupled with the complete ineptitude of the Timberwolves and Year 2 of Target field, fans will be pining for something good to cheer.

Sounds like the makings of a trap season to me.  After struggling through this Vikings season, I hope I’m wrong.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As the 2010 season approached, it was expected that the American League Central division race would come down to the final games. The division had been decided by a tie breaking 163rd game in 2008 and 2009, so there was no reason to believe that 2010 would be any different.

The unpredictability of the division continued in 2010, as The Minnesota Twins came out of the gates hot, holding an early lead in the division after the first month. The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers would close the gap, and as the All Star break came the White Sox found themselves in the drivers seat for the division crown.

The Twins would ultimately have the last laugh, playing determined baseball down the stretch and clinching the division well before many others in baseball had been decided.

The 2011 season promises to be another close one in the AL Central, with the Twins determined to defend their crown, and the White Sox and Tigers stocking up with talent this offseason. As we prepare to turn the calendar and look towards spring training, let’s look at the AL Central’s best players at each position.

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The 2010 Minnesota Twins, while having a great season with a 94-68 record, won their 6th American League Central Title since 2002.

The post-season struggles of the Twins have been well documented. The Twins will need to have another stellar season to stave off the reloaded Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers.

The Twins should have the following list of New Year’s Resolutions in order to get back to the playoffs, and wreak some havoc should they make it there.

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Since I first did this list, several catchers have changed teams (while the biggest name was Victor Martinez, players like John Buck, Miguel Olivo and others also packed their bags).  Let’s take a look at the impact of these moves on our rankings for the upcoming year:

1. Joe Mauer—Minnesota Twins
2. Victor Martinez—Detroit Tigers
3. Brian McCann—Atlanta Braves
4. Carlos Santana—Cleveland Indians
5. Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants
6. Miguel Montero—Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Kurt Suzuki—Oakland Athletics
8. Matt Wieters—Baltimore Orioles
9. Jorge Posada—New York Yankees
10. Geovany Soto—Chicago Cubs
11. Mike Napoli—Los Angeles Angels
12. Chris Iannetta—Colorado Rockies
13. J.P. Arencibia—Toronto Blue Jays
14. Yadier Molina—St. Louis Cardinals
15. Miguel Olivo—Seattle Mariners

Thoughts

• John Buck falls off the rankings, as there is little chance that he replicates his success from 2010. In particular, the average is likely to plummet, as he posted a BABIP of .335 (he hit .281). While he has power, he doesn’t have enough upside.
• One of the players who does have upside is Arencibia, who should now be in line for everyday at-bats in Toronto. He absolutely mashed at Triple-A, hitting .301 with 32 HR in 412 AB. Yes, strikeouts are going to be a problem (making a high average unlikely), but with the amount of power he could potentially hit for, he’s an intriguing option to take a flier on if you missed out on the bigger names. He could easily be a poor man’s Mike Napoli in 2011 if given enough of an opportunity.
• The Carlos Santana-Buster Posey debate is not one that is going to end quickly. I’ll address it in the near future, so make sure to keep checking back.
• With Miguel Olivo out of Colorado, Chris Iannetta should now step into regular playing time. That is, he will if the Rockies finally decide to turn everyday duties over to him. We’ve played this song and dance before, and it always ends up with Iannetta somehow finding his way onto the bench. His upside makes him extremely intriguing, but be prepared to be disappointed.
• Speaking of Olivo, with regular playing time in Seattle he continues to hold value. He’s not a sexy name, but we know what we are going to get from him.
• With Jorge Posada clearly moving to DH with the Russell Martin signing, he gets a boost in value. The extra at-bats certainly should help him in the counting stats. His numbers could easily be similar to that of Matt Wieters and Geovany Soto; the major difference is that Soto may not be able to score many runs (only 47 in ‘10 and career high is 66). Without that, Soto becomes the worst option of the three. Wieters, however, has the most upside of the group given his age and minor league pedigree.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Dec. 22, 2010

Twins ‘Cold’ During ‘Hot’ Season

by Andy Vanfossan

With 2010 coming to an end, now is a good time to look at the positives and negatives for the last month and a half of the free agent season.

Positives:

1)      The first positive has nothing to do with any trade or free agent signing. It has to do with the health of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The past two seasons, the Twins have been relatively quiet in the first couple weeks of the free agent signing period. The main “signings” had to do with getting two all-stars back and healthy for the upcoming year. This year is no exception. Morneau is expected to be on the field at spring training (after missing the last part of the 2010 season with post-concussion syndrome) along with his friend and all-star Joe Mauer (minor knee surgery). Having solid 3-4 hitters like this will rival the newly formed 3-4 hitters in Chicago (Dunn and Konerko) and in Detroit (Cabrera and Martinez).

2)      Updating the speed. Tsuyoshi Nishioka should bring some speed and stability to the Twins’ infield in 2011. Coming off a career year in Japan, Nishioka is expected to fill in for the departed Orlando Hudson (Padres two-year contract) and possibly slide over to shortstop for JJ Hardy (trade with Balitmore). This does help the speed factor with Alexi Casilla getting another shot for full time middle infield duty. With the big hitters in Mauer, Morneau, Young, Cuddyer and Kubel, these two guys should score runs in bunches.

3)      Standing pat. Sometimes the best moves are the moves that aren’t made. There had been talk of the Twins looking to sign Brandon Webb early in the signing period, but those rumors never came to be. Webb would be a pitcher the Twins could definitely use. When he’s healthy, he has a Cy Young award to his credit and is a ground ball pitcher which plays right into the dimensions of Target Field. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a shoulder injury and still isn’t 100%. With the starting rotation at least six deep (depending on the resigning of Carl Pavano and the possibly trade of Kevin Slowey), and the promotion of Kyle Gibson, the Twins are in a good situation with regards to their starting pitching.

 Negatives

1)      Bullpen help. I agree that giving Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier multi-year deals wasn’t in the Twins’ best interest, both in terms of longevity and finance (Crain 3 yrs-$13 million and Guerrier 4 years-$12 million), but they also have let Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch test the free agent market. With the no strikeout/pitch to contact pitchers the Twins have from 2-5, the bullpen gets work almost nightly. Putting younger guys in like Anthony Slama, Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship and Pat Neshek to bridge the gap to Nathan or Capps is a tall order, especially for pitchers with little experience. The Twins have prided themselves on building from within and this off-season shows this same philosophy will be tested again.

2)      Jim Thome. The Twins are optimistic that Jim Thome will return for a second season in Minnesota. As he was a January signing last year, history is showing this may be the case again. However, as the Twins wait for Thome’s decision, other solid DH type hitters are leaving the market. Hideki Matsui signed with the Oakland A’s (although the Twins were on his ‘no trade’ list) and Adam Dunn signed a long term deal with the White Sox. Both of these hitters are mostly DH players only, but so is Thome. Waiting on Thome potentially will leave the Twins with a bench of role players and no real game changers like Thome was last year.

3)      Top of the rotation guy. Carl Pavano is the last big name pitcher on the market. But for all Pavano has done the past year and a half (innings pitched and wins), he still doesn’t strike a lot of people out. The Twins’ pitching philosophy is pitch to contact and limit walks. Pavano is perfect from this standpoint but come post season, you need the strikeout pitcher and Pavano isn’t that type of pitcher anymore. The Twins have a lot of Pavano clones in Baker, Duensing, Blackburn and Slowey, but nothing like Liriano, which is what the Twins desperately need, especially come post season.

4)      Signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. As mentioned above, Gardy wanted more speed in the line-up. This seems to be an upgrade over the middle infield from 2010. However, for every Ichiro, Hideo Nomo and Hideki Matsui that has/had prospered in the major leagues, you have Hideki Okijama (one good season with the Red Sox), Kenshin Kawakami (Atlanta Braves 1-10 5.15 ERA), and Kaz Matsui (Astros, Rockies, Mets). Assuming the first year is a learning process for Nishioka, the Twins will still be in need of middle infield help. The non-tenure of Hudson and the trade of Hardy definitely puts all the middle infield eggs in one basket.

The promising news for Twins fans is that Smith was aggressive last year in January and towards the beginning of spring training with the signing of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Lightning will need to strike twice to keep the Twins atop the AL Central again in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As the Twins saw their postseason dreams come to a halt at the hands of the New York Yankees this past October, the team still had plenty to be proud of as they entered the offseason. The organization had brought baseball back outdoors in Minnesota for the first time in three decades, and saw a great deal of success in doing so.

The Twins were an American League best 53-28 at Target Field, removing any doubt as to whether or not the team would still have a home field advantage without the now deflated Teflon top that the Metrodome provided.

If there was one complaint about Target Field however, it was the lack of power that the team displayed within the confines of their home turf. As a team, the Twins only hit 52 home runs at Target Field in 2010, while hitting almost twice as many on the road. The team also struck out more than 100 times at home than on the road, a sign that the players were likely working on compensating for the dimensions of this pitcher friendly ball park.

On paper, the team has the capacity to put up great numbers and score many runs, but if the team doesn’t solve their power struggles and put some pop in their bats in 2011, they may find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.

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