Kuzul

Are the Cincinnati Reds the best team in baseball?

Valid arguments could be made against it, but they are the hottest. Since the All-Star break they are 29-14, going 21-8 through the month of August, the best record in MLB.

They never give up, winning 19 games in their last at-bat. Don’t turn the TV off until the fat lady sings.

They are the youngest team with playoff aspirations, with an average age of younger than 28.

The Reds boast arguably the best player in the National League this year in first-baseman Joey Votto. In only his third full season in the majors Votto is among the top in virtually all offensive categories.

He is currently second to Carlos Gonzalez in BA at .325. He is third in HR with 32, and leads the league in RBI with 97. He is third in runs scored, first in OBP, second in SLG and first in OPS.

He has a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown, along with St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols and Gonzalez.

The bench has probably been the strongest point for the Reds this season. When players have gone down with injuries or needed a day off, their subs have done a tremendous job.

Miguel Cairo has filled in at every infield position this season and the team did not miss a beat.  The same holds true for shortstop Paul Janish. Orlando Cabrera was stuck on the DL and Janish filled in as though he belonged at the big league level.

Rookies Chris Heisey and Chris Valaika have played important parts in backup roles as well.

They have played 10 rookies so far this season, and most have been sensational. Mike Leake began the season and pitched good enough to be under consideration for Rookie-of-the-Year.

Southpaw rookie Travis Wood flirted with a perfect game until the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Sam LeCure pitched so well during his first call-up that he is now the long man in the bullpen.

They have a very solid rotation, in Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey and now Aaron Harang (if they don’t re-assign him to the pen).

Arroyo has been the workhorse of MLB the last few years, pitching over 200 innings five seasons consecutively. He now has 181 and is well on his way to the sixth season of 200 IP.

They have one of the best infields in all of baseball. Votto, Phillips, Cabrera and Scott Rolen have made plays all season that would fill a highlight reel.

The outfield is good but not great. Jonny Gomes is lacking in defensive skills but has power and is a good clutch hitter. Drew Stubbs is the fastest man on the team and an excellent defensive center fielder. He has power and should develop into a 30-30 player in a couple of years.

Jay Bruce is finally playing to the potential he possesses. He is arguably the best defensive right fielder in the National League, if not the entire MLB. He has awesome power and when he matures completely, I believe he can be a 40 home run man.

Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez have shared the catching duties all year. They both have done exceptionally well. Hernandez is batting close to .300 and is playing some of the best ball of his career.

Hanigan just won a game last night with a three-run shot in the upper deck.

The relief corps of the Reds has been bent a few times but refuses to be broken. Arthur Rhodes, 40, and Nick Masset have done a fabulous job in the setup role and Cordero has settled in and is now doing what he is paid to do – save games.

And last but not least, they possess the Cuban Missile. Rookie Aroldis Chapman has garnered so much attention in the baseball community due to the heat that he brings to the mound.

In this first appearance against the Milwaukee Brewers he pitched a perfect inning, with one strikeout and one pitch clocked at 103 mph. Of the eight pitches he threw, seven were strikes and at least three of them were arriving in triple digits.

So, are they the best team in baseball? I say yes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As the final month of the 2010 baseball season gets under way, the imaginations of baseball fans everywhere are alive with the possibility of a triple crown winner in the National League.  With statistics and probability we can put hard projections to that amazing possibility. 

Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Carlos Gonzalez all have an opportunity to win the first National League triple crown since Joe Medwich of St. Louis did it 1937 (interesting note – three of the four NL Triple Crown winners since 1900 have played for St. Louis). 

What this article will attempt to do is examine the probability of each player winning the triple crown.  Using past performance as an indicator of future performance, we’ll examine what Pujols, Votto and Gonzalez have done in past Septembers and see if we can project what they will do this September. 

We’ll also weight that historical data against their performances this season to give us a better estimate of where they’ll finish the season. 

We begin with showing where each player stands on September 1st.

Albert Pujols     35 HR, 95 RBI, .316 AVG
Joey Votto       32 HR, 97 RBI, .327 AVG
Carlos Gonzalez 29 HR, 91 RBI,  .326 AVG

ALBERT PUJOLS

After a slow start to the season, for Pujols standards, the great Albert has been on fire since the All-Star break.  In the second half he has slammed 12 home runs, driven in 28 base runners and hit .342.

Pujols is first in HR, second in RBI and fourth in batting average.

Pujols is in the midst of his 10th major league season.  As a result we have a lot of data showing how he has performed in the month of September. 

Here are his last four years, all of them occurring since he and the Cardinals moved into new Busch Stadium.

2009: 30, games, 134 PA (17 walks), 6 HR, 25 RBI, .357 AVG
2008: 25 games, 103 PA (17 walks), 8 HR, 27 RBI, .321 AVG
2007: 28 games, 109 PA (18 walks), 2 HR, 19 RBI, .386 AVG
2006: 29 games, 129 PA (19 walks), 10 HR, 28 RBI, .373 AVG

The average is the most important because it’s the category Pujols has to make up the most in.  He can certainly do it.  In four of the last six seasons Pujols has hit over .350 in September.  For his career he is a .343 hitter in the season’s final month.  That’s 10 points higher than his career mark of .333. 

Here are his total stats in September and October. 

1055 PA  884 AB  51 HR  192 RBI  .343 AVG
16.5 AB/HR
5.5 PA/RBI

Now just because Pujols has performed at a certain level in the past doesn’t mean he’ll do the same this year.  It’s important to consider how he’s been doing recently in 2010.  Since he has 32 games left in 2010, we’ll look at this last 32 games played.

143 PA 129 AB  13 HR  26 RBI  .364 BA
9.9 AB/HR
5.5 RBI/PA

If we add in his recent performance with his average performance over the last nine years (giving a little bit more weight towards his recent performance), we get the following projections for the rest of the season:

7.5 HR(+/- 1) 24 RBI(+/- 2)  .344 AVG

Which added to his totals as of September 1st, give him a final projection of: 

43 HR, 119 RBI, .323 AVG

As indicated above there is a margin of error.  However the projections should be 95 percent certain within the margin of error.

JOEY VOTTO

Votto has only been a full-time baseball player for his three years.  In 2007 he was a September call-up for Cincinnati. He made his major league debut on September 4th of that year. 

Here are his performances in September since 2007:

2009: 30 games, 126 PA (22 walks), 5 HR, 19 RBI, .385 AVG
2008: 25 games, 110 PA (15 walks), 9 HR, 20 RBI, .309 AVG
2007: 24 games, 89 PA (5 walks) 4 HR, 17 RBI, .360 AVG

For Votto we get totals of 325 plate appearances and 298 at-bats.  This gives him an AB per HR of 15.6, an PA per RBI of 5.8 and an average of .340.  If he can duplicate that line this year, he’ll win the batting title and have an excellent shot at the triple crown. 

Votto and the Reds have 30 games left this year.

Based on his history, weighted with his recent performance, Votto is projected to hit seven or eight home runs,  produce 24 to 26 RBI and hit around .345.  I have weighted his 2009 and 2008 seasons more than his 2007 season in this calculation.  

For Votto I have also factored in the increase in walk rate, which could reduce his home run and RBI potential, but help his batting average (as it did in 2009).

This gives him a final line of:

40 HR, 123 RBI, .333 AVG

Like Pujols, Votto’s projection is based on him starting all of the Reds remaining games.  Also like Pujols, this is a safe assumption considering the Reds pursuit of a playoff spot.  The only difference with Votto is that the Reds have a better chance of wrapping up a playoff spot with a few games remaining.  If this happens, Votto might receive some days off before the playoffs. 

CARLOS GONZALEZ

Gonzalez is the hardest to predict.  Since he only has one season in Colorado, and the National League, there is a large margin of error in estimating his performance over Colorado’s final 31 games. 

Here is Gonzalez’s performance over the last month of the season (almost all of this was compiled in 2009):

136 PA  121 AB  5 HR  13 RBI .273 AVG
24.2 AB/HR
10.5 PA/RBI

And more importantly his performance over his last 31 games of 2010:

135 PA  121 AB  12 HR  29 RBI  .388 AVG
10 AB/HR
4.65 RBI/PA

Gonzalez really wore down in September and October last year.  Like this year he had been scorching hot in August (.317, 6 HR, 13 RBI).

To get an accurate projection for Gonzalez we’ll weight his performance this year more than his performance last year.  This gives us a projection for September 2010 of:

8 HR (+/- 3), 19 RBI (+/- 7) and a .342 AVG

Gonzalez’s margin of error is huge because we have so little data to go on.  If he sticks to the data in the middle he’ll finish with a line of:

37 HR, 110 RBI, .326 BA

Other Players to Consider

We have to give attention to Adam Dunn’s chances of leading the NL in home runs.  Dunn is second in home runs with 33, that’s two behind Pujols. 

Here are Adam Dunn’s September homerun totals over the past six years:

2009: 27 games, 3 HR in 99 AB – Played for the Washington Nationals
2008: 26 games, 6 HR in 88 AB – Played for the Arizona Diamondbacks
2007: 20 games, 4 HR in 62 AB
2006: 28 games, 2 HR in 87 AB
2005: 30 games, 5 HR in 104 AB
2004: 31 games, 6 HR in 110 AB – Played for the Cincinnati Reds through 2007

That’s 26 home runs in 550 at-bats or about 21 at-bats per home run.  The evidence suggests that Dunn fades as the season wanes.  This probably explains why he has never lead the NL in home runs but has finished second twice and third once. 

History suggests we can discard Dunn as a threat to overtake the home run lead by season’s end.

The Atlanta Braves have two hitters which could spoil the triple crown pursuit, Martin Prado and Omar Infante. Prado is hitting .317 and Infante is hitting .341. 

Infante only has 370 plate appearances this year.  He needs 502 to qualify for the batting title.  Since being inserted into the Braves everyday staring lineup on July 29th, he has averaged 4.6 PA per game, most of them from the lead-off spot. 

The Braves have 31 games left.  If he starts everyone of them and maintains this pace, he’ll finish with around 512 PA.

It’s going to be close with Infante.  He’ll have to play everyday and keep hitting.  Infante is only a .275 career hitter, so how he’s doing it this year is a complicated mystery for another article.  It’s hard to predict if he’ll keep it up and stay ahead of Votto and his projected final average of .333

Prado is a career .311 hitter with an career average of .276 in September.  There’s little chance he wins the batting title, unless he significantly outperforms his past history. 

WRAP-UP

Based on this projection system the final lines for these three players are:

Pujols     43 HR (+/- 1), 119 RBI (+/- 2), .323 AVG
Votto     40 HR (+/- 0.5) 123 RBI (+/- 1) , .333 AVG
Gonzalez 37 HR (+/- 3) , 110 RBI (+/- 7) , .326 AVG

Joey Votto has the best chance to win the NL triple crown.  He has a 95 percent chance to win the batting title and the RBI title.  He has a 22% chance to win the HR title. 

Albert Pujols has a 68 percent chance to win the HR title, about a 40 percent chance to win the RBI title and only a 2.5 percent chance to win the batting crown.

Gonzalez’s chances are lower than 34 percent in each category.  His total chances of winning are about 3%.  Albert Pujols has a 36 percent chance of winning the National League Triple Crown. 

Remember that all of these are a projections based on past performances in the season’s final month and recent performances in 2010.  Many other factors will come into play in September (injuries, home/road splits, lineup strength, days of rest or another hitter emerging in one of the three categories). 

If the past and present hold true though, Joey Votto has an excellent chance to win the NL Triple Crown. 

I’d put Votto’s chances at about 64 percent as of September 1st.

For a look at the data and methodology used in this study click here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For someone with children eager to learn about the complexities of baseball, this Reds team is a dream come true.  My five-year-old son, who can rake by the way, constantly says, “Tell me more about baseball!” each time we watch a game whether it be on television or at Great American Ball Park.  Like most kids, he loves home runs, but is also interested in the intricacies of the game.

I have discovered his eagerness to learn is because of two main reasons.  The first, obviously, is because he loves the game and wants to play like the big-leaguers.  The other is his desire to find every possible edge when we engage in a titanic struggle of MLB10 The Show.

The 2010 Reds have provided me with many opportunities to teach my kids the proper way to play baseball.  Joey Votto is one of the best players in all of baseball and is having the season of his life.  It is a true privilege to watch the way he approaches every at-bat.  The way he spoils borderline pitches while waiting for one he can drive is absolutely incredible.

Brandon Phillips should definitely win another Gold Glove at second base.  His instincts and athletic ability allow him to make plays on balls that most infielders wouldn’t even get to.  However, I love to watch him make the routine plays.  It is absolutely textbook.  Phillips fields the routine grounders with two hands, and brings it right to his chest.  You can see the top of his hat as he looks the ball all the way into his glove.

Yesterday, Drew Stubbs started the bottom of the first inning with a double to left.  Chris Valaika sacrificed him to third.  Stubbs scored when Votto grounded out to first.  The next batter, Scott Rolen, lined out to center.  If Valaika doesn’t get the bunt down, the Reds don’t score.

Chris Heisey played a big part in yesterday’s win.  In the second, his hustle and speed turned a single into a double.  Ramon Hernandez singled, scoring Heisey.  The next two batters were retired. 

The Reds have made a point of going first to third on base hits.  With one out, Stubbs turned on the jets when Votto singled to center.  Rolen produced a sacrifice fly, scoring Stubbs.  The next batter grounded out, meaning Stubbs would have been left at third base had he not gone first-to-third.

In the eighth, it was Heisey’s turn again.  His attempt to go first-to-third on another hit be Hernandez caused an errant throw by Kosuke Fukudome, allowing Heisey to score the go-ahead run.

Read more at Reds Country.

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As I have gotten older, my views of the Reds have become more objective.  I can find fault with the team and logically investigate ways in which they can improve.  

The Reds’ representation on blogs and social networking sites has really exploded over the last year.  Some people are fanatical, which is great.  Others, including myself, love and support the Reds as much as anyone, but also try to mix in an analytical approach to following the team.

The rest of the baseball world is quickly becoming aware of what Reds Country has known for a long time—Joey Votto is good.  A member of the Reds Blogosphere, Diamond Hoggers, recently posted a very strong statement regarding the first baseman.

Today, Joey Votto cemented himself as the best Reds player of my lifetime. The 2010 Joey Votto is the most dominating version of an offensive player that a team that I’ve pulled for has ever had within its members.

My first thought was the post was just an excited reaction to the Reds extra-inning victory against the Giants in which Votto collected four hits, two being home runs.  However, after I thought about it, the exuberant praise for Votto isn’t overstated at all.

Votto is absolutely incredible.

If you want to teach a youngster how to hit a baseball, make sure all eyes are on the television when Votto comes to bat.  He clearly has a plan as he strides to the plate.  He has the unique ability to make adjustments during the at-bat based on the circumstances (count, runners moving, etc.).

I have pointed out to my family on more than one occasion the way Votto approaches an at-bat.  His ability to foul off borderline pitches with two strikes is remarkable.  The only Red I have ever seen do that so well is Barry Larkin.  If you want proof, look no further than the MVP-caliber at-bat against the Dodgers last Sunday.

Votto is putting up some ridiculous statistics this year, sparking legitimate discussion of his chances at the Triple Crown.  He is leading the National League with a .326 batting average, tied for second with 31 home runs, and in second place with 90 runs batted in.

More importantly, the Reds are in first place and hoping to make their first postseason appearance since 1995…and Votto is leading the way.

Read more at Reds Country.

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By now the baseball world is well aware that the National League Most Valuable Player race has essentially come down to two NL Central first basemen currently chasing the Triple Crown.

Barring a huge slump on either of their parts or a huge surge by another candidate—crazier things have happened, and Adrian Gonzalez looms in the shadows—the NL MVP is going to go to one of these two players.

So how close is the race between them? Shockingly close.

They are in a statistical dead heat.

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Currently Albert Pujols and Joey Votto are locked in a battle for the coveted “Triple Crown” of hitters in the National League, while Miguel Cabrerra is chasing it in the American League. The hitters Triple Crown, for those that don’t know, refers to leading the league in home runs, RBI, and average in the same season. It has been 42 years since anyone has won it at all, (Carl Yastremski for Boston) and it’s been 73 years since anyone has done it in the National League (Joe Medwick for the Cardinals). Overall, it’s been won 16 times, 11 of those in the 45 years between 1922 and 1967, with the longest stretch without a winner being 10 years. So I got to thinking, what happened. Why did players stop winning the Triple Crown. Through research and consideration I came up with the following reasons.

Integration

Integration is a big part of the reason. If you don’t count Ted Williams second Triple Crown in 1947, the year that integration technically occurred (but there were only two black players in the Majors) the Triple Crown has only been one three times. In fact, even when Yaz won the last one in 1967 integration hadn’t fully taken hold.

Ironically it was the same year that Boston, the last team to do so, actually fully integrated. Integration impacts the chances of winning the Triple Crown because it expands the player pool. (Incidentally the only African-American player to win the Triple Crown is Frank Robinson.) The impact of integration is easy to demonstrate, 8 winners in the 25 years before is a lot more than the the three winners in the 63 years since. Still, it doesn’t tell the whole story. How come no one has won since 1967? There were three those three winners in 20 years.

Expansion

When Ted Williams won in 1947 there were only eight teams in each League and 615 total players in the Majors. When Yaz won in 1967 there were only ten teams in each league, and a total of 776 players. This year there are 16 teams in the NL, and 14 in the AL, for a total of 1163. The Majors have almost doubled in size since Williams won his Triple Crown, and it has increased by more than 67 percent since Yaz won his.

It’s not just size of the players that have increased, it’s the total number of players. Having more players makes it harder to finish first.

Internationalization

It’s one of those things that doesn’t get as much talk as it should, in that that it makes a lot of sense out of a lot of things. Integration had it’s impact as is considered it’s own “era” of baseball, but while internationalization has had at least the same impact, it’s not really discussed very much. This year 315 players, nearly 28 percent of Major Leaguers, are foreign born players. And it’s not just average players either.

This year’s All-Star game featured nine foreign born players among its 18 starters. Five of the six leaders in the three Triple Crown categories for the two leagues are foreign-born. In fact, both players threatening to win it this year are foreign born. Pujols is from the DR, and Votto is from Canada. 

Integration added about 10 million players to the player pool, roughly the same as the Dominican Republic alone.

In 1967 there were a total of 89 foreign born players. This year there are 315. Even that doesn’t tell the whole story though, because Cuba and Puerto Rico have been delivering MLB  players consistently. In 1957 there were 23 from those two countries. In 1967 there were 44, and in 2010 there are 44. When you take those two countries out of the equation, in 1957 2% of the league was foreign born not from Cuba or PR. In 1967 it was up to about 5%. In 2010 it is over 23%.

That’s a significant number. If you count the two nations who provide the most Major League Players, Dominican Republic (119) and Venezuela (76) you increase the population to draw players from by nearly 40 million. If you count the next two, Japan and Mexico, you basically add a population equivalent to the entire US population. As an aside this also explains the “drop” in African American players. There’s an obvious corresponding drop in American players period, which corresponds inherently with the increase of the percentage of foreign born players. Pardon me for stating the obvious, but it seems to get lost.

Specialization

Babe Ruth had a career batting average of .342, good for 10th all time, an often overlooked fact. He wasn’t just a slugger, he was a pretty darned good hitter too! Several factors, smaller parks, changing pitching mounds and strike zones, perhaps changing balls, steroids etc have all combined to make hitters specialize. For a very long time there just weren’t a lot of players who both hit for a high average and knock a lot of balls out of the park.

In at least the last 30 years+, I can only find four players, A-Rod, Bonds, Manny and Andres Galarraga who have even won a “career Triple Crown” meaning they’ve led the league in all three categories at any point in their career. If Pujols can hold on to his RBI lead he’ll be the fifth , and probably the first to do so without a little “extra help.” Somewhat surprisingly, it’s not just the Triple Crown no one has won.

Since the respective Triple Crown achievement in each league there have been no players to lead in both Home Runs and BA in the same season.

Finally, since integration, no player has hit 400 home runs and had a BA over .330. The closest is Guerrero who has a BA of .320, but has never led the league in any of the Triple Crown categories, indicating he hits both with power and average well, but neither well enough to lead the league. Again Pujols threatens to break that streak with just one more HR. He is an exception though. He’s not a slugger. He’s a very powerful line-drive hitter. In a very real sense, he’s a specialist in the sense that he’s a hitter, not a slugger, he just happens to hit a lot of his line-drives really, really hard.

Pitching

Pitching used to be easier to hit. Since 1920, only 29 starting pitchers with more than 1000 IP have recorded a H/9 innings rate of fewer than 8. Of those 27 have played since the last time a Triple Crown was won. Only three players are in the top 50 all time in batting average. Hitting for average is just harder that it used to be, which is part of the reason you start getting specialization.

Taking all of this into consideration, I think Pujols could break the streak. He’s the type of hitter that can do it because he has both power and average. There’s also the fact that he’s generally done his best hitting in August and September.

This year has certainly been no exception. He’s been hitting well over .400 for the month, and basically a HR every other game and an RBI per game. His OPS for the month is over 1.300. He’s also got the “fitting” thing going for him, which really isn’t a reason, but it would be appropriate somehow if there were a foreign born player who did it. Still, if he (or Votto) does it, because it is so hard to do now, it might be the be the most impressive Triple Crown ever.

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In Wednesday’s series finale with the San Francisco Giants, the Reds looked like they were going to beat them as if they stole something.

Joey Votto, Jonny Gomes, and Ryan Hanigan all homered to stake Homer Bailey to a 4-0 lead in the first inning. It looked like payback time for the boys from the Queen City.

Votto hit another homer in the third inning, his 31st of the season, to cap a four-run inning and the Reds were on top 8-1.

Adding one run in the fourth and another in the fifth gave the Reds what looked like a victory, with a 10-1 lead.

The Giants put up two in the fifth and chased Bailey in the sixth. He left the game leading 10-3 and handed the keys to Bill Bray with two on and one out. Bray allowed both to score, and suddenly it was a 10-5 game at the end of the sixth.

San Francisco jumped all over Logan Ondrusek in the bottom of the eighth. After he pitched a 1-2-3 seventh inning, he gave up singles to Jose Guillen and Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval. Juan Uribe continued his hot hitting against the Reds with a three-run shot to left, making it a 10-8 game with nobody out.

Dusty Baker then made a triple switch. He brought in Arthur Rhodes to replace Ondrusek and brought in Jay Bruce to play right, moving Chris Heisey to left and sending Gomes to the bench.

In a performance that was probably due, Rhodes gave up what looked like the winning run, allowing three runs in one inning of work.

The Reds then scored a run in the top of the ninth to keep the game alive. Nick Masset shut the Giants down in the ninth to force the game into extra innings.

In the top of the 10th the Reds squelched a tremendous opportunity to score a run. With two outs, Scott Rolen doubled high off the left field wall and headed to second base. Cody Ross (why did we ever trade him?) played it off the wall like he worked there all year, and threw a strike to second.

Rolen attempted the worst slide I’ve seen in probably five years, looking like a deer caught in the headlights. He was out by several feet, so kudos to Ross on a beautiful defensive play.

Laynce Nix pinch-hit for Masset in the top of the 11th. He hit a slow roller to second base and pulled up lame after about three steps toward first. Don’t look for him for at least two weeks, as he could barely walk after the re-injury.

My boy (Okay, I have mellowed on him a little) Coco Cordero pitched the last two innings to notch the well-deserved win, since Votto had singled Miguel Cairo in with the game winner in the 12th.

Votto had four hits, Paul Janish had three, and Gomes and Rolen both had two, as the Reds pounded out 16 of them. Sadly, they were out-hit by the Giants 18-16.

In the three-game set, the Giants scored 39 runs and collected 55 hits against the worn-out Reds pitching staff.

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During Monday night’s St. Louis Cardinals loss to the last-place (and worst record in baseball) Pittsburgh Pirates, Albert Pujols was 3-for-5 with a double, raising his batting average to .322.

I know this stat is not important to saber heads (please bear with us), but for this argument it is imperative.

Meanwhile, on the west coast, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto went 1-for-4 in a 13-5 drubbing by the now offensively resurgent San Francisco Giants. That effort dropped Votto’s season average to .323, a single point above Pujols.

With Pujols ahead in the National League in home runs (33) and RBI (92), the batting crown is the only leg of the Triple Crown he does lead.

Adan Dunn, with 31 jacks, and Votto, with 29 dingers, are right behind Phat Albert in the HR race. And with 86 RBI, Votto is six back of Pujols, I believe Albert is safe in both power departments. He is on a roll with the power and when that happens, usually a tidal wave of home runs (and RBI) ensue.

In fact, Albert’s August barrage of nine home runs, 20 RBI while hitting .436 is what has put him back into the Triple Crown race.

While Votto is leading with a .323 average entering Wednesday’s games, Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez is currently hitting .319 while Atlanta’s Martin Prado is at .317. Both could also end up with a higher average than Pujols in his quest to become baseball’s first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastremski in 1967*.

*If you have never looked into Yaz’ stretch run in 1967, when he was not only attempting to win the Triple Crown, but more importantly, trying to lead Boston to the AL Pennant, you need to look into it. It is perhaps the best clutch performance of any player of all time.  

While fending off Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago (what no Yankees?) in a four-team race for the pennant, Yaz went 7-for-8 in his final two games with a double, HR, and six RBI including a 4-for-4 performance on the final day. During the September stretch run, Yaz hit .417 with nine homers, but hit .541 with four homers and 14 RBI over the last 10 games.

It was truly a remarkable performance.

Pujols is starting to turn it on with his incredible month of August, but it is probably the batting average category which could forestall any thoughts of a Triple Crown.

But despite all of Albert’s greatness, there is one guy who can keep Albert from winning the Triple Crown. Joey Votto, right?

Wrong.

It is Omar Infante of the Atlanta Braves.

What? Yes, you saw it correctly. Infante is the one player who can keep Albert Pujols from winning this years Triple Crown.

Entering today, Infante is hitting .349 this season as a utility player for the first place Braves, and was having such a fine season at the break, he even made his first All-Star team.

But he only has 342 plate appearances thus far, and with the Braves already playing 126 games, Infante currently needs 391 to qualify (3.1 Plate Appearances per team game played).

Omar is not just a utility player anymore, and has been a regular in Bobby Cox’s lineup since late July. And Omar is not slowing down now that he is a regular. He has hit a robust .370/.400/.560/.960 OPS clip for August (37-100) with four home runs.

This is coming off him hitting .429 in July (27-63).

With Atlanta only 2.5 games ahead of Philadelphia, Cox has no reason not to play the red-hot Infante every day. With Chipper Jones out for the season, Infante is now the starting second baseman, with Martin Prado moving from second over to third.

Even when Troy Glaus comes back, I still see Infante in the lineup every day until the end of the season. 

So let’s do the math.

Infante has 342 PA, but needs 502 to qualify for the batting title. For a conservative estimate, lets give him four PA for each of the next 36 games the Braves have left.

That will allow for some games of five PA, while he may sit a game to get some rest. He may even be dropped in the batting order, who knows? He has hit in every spot in the lineup this season but fifth, but has been in the leadoff spot the last couple weeks.

That gives him another 144 plate appearances (36 games x 4 PA per = 144), and add that to his current 342 would give Infante 486 PA for the season. That is still 16 PA short of qualifying for the title.

Lets also say that Infante (even after his very hot July and August), hits only around .320 the rest of the way. Infante does not walk much (another no-no for any saber head HOF consideration), so lets say all his 144 PA become actual at bats.  

If Infante gets 46 hits in his 144 remaining at bats (a .319 average), he will end up .33978 for the season (158 for 465). This leads Votto and Pujols at their current averages for the batting title.

But under our situation, Infante is still 16 PA short of a title. This is where playing with the numbers comes into play. MLB rules regarding a batting title state in order to become eligible, a player must accumulate 3.1 PA for every team games played, or 502 PA.

But if the player with the highest average in a league fails to meet the minimum plate-appearance requirement, the remaining at-bats until qualification are hypothetically considered hitless at-bats; if his recalculated batting average still tops the league, he is awarded the title.

Thus if we give Infante an additional 16 “hitless” at bats to a total of 481, he would then have a batting average of .32848, still about five points higher than Votto or Pujols is hitting right now. Reduce Infante by one hit, and his average would then be .32640. Reduce by another hit (only 156 hits/481 AB) would reduce his average to .32432, still slightly above where Votto and Pujols are.

This tactic of adding “hitless” at bats was started in 1967, and was implemented most recently in 1996 when Tony Gwynn won the batting title while only having 498 PA.

I believe Infante will hit around .320 (or better) the rest of the season, and pose an issue for the batting title and possible Pujols Triple Crown. At the end of the season with an average in the .326 to .333 range…after the hitless at bats are added.

This is all moot of course if Votto or Adam Dunn, Carlos Gonzalez, or even Martin Prado gets hot at their specialties and pushes Pujols out of one or more of the other two categories. 

Throw in a Cincinnati and St. Louis Divisional race down the stretch and the last six weeks become even more interesting for Pujols, Votto, and the rest of the National League.

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Winning a Triple Crown is one of the rarest feats in all of baseball. Very rarely do we even see one player contending for the average, home run, and RBI titles.

And you’re telling me that there are three contenders in the National League this year?

Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez, Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, and St. Louis’s Albert Pujols are all in the hunt for the Triple Crown. And if none of them wins the honor, it will be one of them that keeps another from winning.

All season long, these three have been hitting absurdly for average and power.

Do they even have a chance? Can it really happen for the first time since 1967?

Here is a look at each contender’s chances at the Crown.

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For anyone who doesn’t think the Cincinnati Reds are for real, this article is for you.

They have just exorcised a demon that has tormented their souls since July 28, 2005. That was the last time the Reds won a game in Chavez Ravine, aka Dodger Stadium. Coincidentally, it was their second win in a row during that four game set.

The Reds used two Jason LaRue home runs and seven strong innings by Brandon Claussen to crush the Dodgers 6-1.

Winning that game and splitting the series, the Reds brought their record up to 13 games below .500 at Dodger Stadium.

You have to go all the way back to May of 2004 to find a Reds series win at the Ravine.

My, how things have changed.

You see, the Reds weren’t getting beat, they were getting outscored 2-1. In those 12 losses the Reds scored only 39 runs while allowing the Bums to score 78.

On Friday night, Homer Bailey tamed the demon with a four-hit outing in seven strong innings. The Reds used eight singles—three by Brandon Phillips—to whip the Dodgers 3-1. Phillips also drove in all three runs.

Yes, the joy was short lived as the Dodgers came back and launched four bombs in route to an 8-5 pasting.

In the rubber match on Sunday, war horse Bronson Arroyo pitched seven strong innings, allowing seven hits and only two runs while raising his record to 14-7. He is now tied for third with Chris Carpenter for wins in the National League.

Phillips continued his hot hitting with a 4-5 outing, scoring the Reds first run.

Joey Votto knocked in all three runs, ruining a very good outing by Clayton Kershaw by lofting an opposite field solo shot in the sixth inning. Votto is batting .350 with a HR and seven RBI on the current road trip.

Kershaw struck out 11 men in his seven innings of work, which was marred with five free passes.

The St. Louis Cardinals beat the San Francisco Giants 9-0 to remain 3.5 games behind Cincinnati.

The Reds begin a three game series with the Giants Monday night, with Edinson Volquez facing Matt Cain. The Reds will be seeking vengeance against Cain who tossed a two hit shutout against them in June at the Great American Ball Park.

The Reds won their 29^th series of the season and third consecutive after being swept by the Cardinals.

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