Kuzul

I have to preface this by saying that I have totally and fully jumped onto the Sabermetric bandwagon. I know I’m late with it, but I am hooked.

There is still a lot I have to learn in the intricacies of the endless list of stats that didn’t exist 15 years ago (for instance the difference between WPA-win probability added and VORP-Value over a replacement player, they seem like they are measuring the same thing).

Anyway, I had to preface with that because I have become fascinated with one stat in particular, clutch.

That is it, it is as simple as that. A single stat that can tell you whether a player is at a higher level in high-pressure situations than he normally is.

While watching the Reds play Tuesday night and saw them come back from yet another deficit (only to lose it in the bottom of the ninth unfortunately), I couldn’t help but notice how much better their hitter seemed to be in high pressure situations.

This season it seems I have seen countless two-out RBI, eighth and ninth inning runs, and heroic walk-offs from the team with an incredible 10 last at-bat victories (out of 23 so far), and two handfuls of late-inning comebacks.

So, I made a B-line for my latest addiction (fangraphs.com) to check out their clutch stats.

I found that Joey Votto is the fourth most clutch player in the league so far this year, meaning that his game elevates the fourth most in pressure situations, not that he is the fourth best player in pressure situations.

He comes out with a “clutch” rating of 1.05, meaning that after you subtract the WPA/LI from the WPA/pLI of a player you get that number (much more thoroughly explained here ).

Looking even further, we see that Cincinnati is the second most clutch team in the Majors, behind Detroit. 

This all makes sense when you watch the Reds, who at times can come out lethargic in the first few innings. But as the heat is put on them, they respond in a big way, and come up with hits in big situations.

Now, that being said, I sat Wednesday afternoon discretely updating my phone in class, hoping for the game ending double-play that was sure to bail out the latest version of the Reds collapsing bullpen.

It never came. The ‘pen gave up a wonderful performance by Mike Leake and a sure win (Atlanta had a 0.5% chance of winning going into the ninth) with a seven run debacle.

I was distraught over how non-clutch our pitching staff has come to be. It seems the Reds are unable to close out a game without Coco Cordero or Nick Masset (more in April than May) making me yell at the TV.

It seems that the Reds rank eighth worst in the majors in clutch pitching. They are sitting at -0.90, worse than their average pitching in high-pressure situations.

For whatever reason, there is a feeling of pomp and swagger in the dugout when Cincy is down heading into the late innings. But in the bullpen there is a feeling of fear and ineptitude when they are playing in a close game in the later innings.

While the clutch hitting of the Reds is to be celebrated, the anti-clutch bullpen may be something to worry about in the Queen City.

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The three-game series that the Cincinnati Reds just swept from the Pittsburgh Pirates has shown some wicked good starting pitching.

Bronson Arroyo was one-hitting the Bucs through six innings on Monday, and received the win with a save (albeit scary) from Coco Cordero.

Last night Johnny Cueto pitched a complete, one-hit shutout as the Reds won big, 9-0. You have to go back to September 22, 1996 to see the last one-hit shutout pitched by a Reds starter.

John Smiley twirled a one-hitter against the St. Louis Cardinals at Cinergy Field.

Today, in the finale of the series, Homer Bailey pitched his first complete game and boy was it a dandy. He was very effective, throwing only 90 pitches, an amazing 73 of them for strikes. He struck out six and issued no bases on balls, as the Reds won 5-0.

The Pirates were limited to one run and 10 hits during the series.

Joey Votto launched a two-run homer in the first, his eighth of the year. Drew Stubbs added a solo blast in the fourth, his third of the year, to end the scoring.

The last time Cincinnati starters pitched back to back, complete game shutouts was in 1989. Jose Rijo and Tom Browning pitched matching five-hit shutouts against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 9-10.

Bailey’s performance today was a record breaker of sorts. It was the most strikes thrown in a complete game shutout with 90 or fewer pitches in MLB history.

It was the 17th quality start (fifth consecutive) compared to 34 games played. It was also the ninth quality start in the last 11 starts.

The Reds have now won five straight and are just a game and a half back of the Cardinals in the NL Central Division. They begin a three game series in Cincinnati on Friday.

Jamie Garcia (3-2) will take the mound against Aaron Harang (2-4) Friday night.

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Johnny Cueto pitched a gem of a game last night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, a 9-0, one-hit shutout of the Pirates.

It was the third consecutive game in which a Reds starter had a one-hitter through six innings. Mike Leake did it on Sunday against the Chicago Cubs. Bronson Arroyo did it Monday against the Pirates.

It was also the fourth consecutive quality start for the Reds pitching staff.

It was especially enjoyable not to have  911 pressed on your cell phone, waiting to push the send button because Coco Cordero was not pitching in the ninth and on the verge of giving me another stroke.

Rookie Chris Heisey brought his average up to .273 with a 3-4 performance, which included his first major league home run. It was a two-run shot in the seventh inning.

Pirates’ starter Charlie Morton actually left the game at the end of six with a quality start of his own, trailing 3-0. The bullpen couldn’t support him on this night.

Cueto was never in any serious trouble at all. He gave up his first hit, a single to Ronny Cedeno in the third inning.

Cueto then retired the next eight, before hitting Cedeno with a pitch in the home half of the sixth. He closed the show by retiring the final 12 Pirates he faced.

It was Cueto’s first complete game of his young career and his third consecutive quality start.

He threw only 102 pitches and 67 of them were strikes, while reducing his ERA to a nearly respectable 4.07.

The Reds win coupled with the St. Louis Cardinals home loss to the Houston Astros brought the Reds to within two games of the front running Cards.

It was the fourth win in a row for MLB’s hottest team. It assures them of winning the series which is their third in a row after losing their second set to the Cards.

Jay Bruce raised his average to .265 with three hits and three runs knocked in.

Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Joey Votto, and Ramon Hernandez had two hits each as the Reds out-hit the Bucs 15-1, They also left nine men stranded during the game.

In today’s final game of the series, at 12:35 PM, the Reds will throw Homer Bailey (0-2) against Pirate southpaw Zach Duke (2-3).

They will then return home for their third series against the Cardinals.

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Joey Votto is beginning to show that he is a complete baseball player. The man has tools.

In yesterday’s come-from- behind win over the Chicago Cubs, Votto sent a 439′ rocket into the right field seats. It was a two out, three-run shot that gave Mike Leake his third win of the season.

The win gave the Reds the series at two games to one. It was a successful home stand as they had just finished winning a set against the New York Mets 2-1 as well.

Leake probably pitched his best game of the season yesterday. He was in complete command of the Cubs, shutting them out with one hit through six innings. He actually had a no-hitter working through five.

In the top of the seventh, Marlon Byrd hit a two-out double giving the Cubs just their second hit of the day. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez reached first on an infield hit that moved Byrd to third.

Leake threw a wild pitch to Tyler Colvin, ruining the shutout as Byrd came home from third base, and Ramirez advanced to second. Colvin then brought Ramirez home with his fourth home run of the season, giving the Cubs their first and only lead of the game at 3-2.

In the home half of the seventh, Ramon Hernandez led off with a double off the left field wall. With the pitcher due up next, this provided a challenge to T-Pick (my new moniker for Dusty Baker). Would he let Leake bat for himself or send up a pinch hitter?

Leake batted for himself and placed a bunt that dropped about five feet from the plate allowing catcher Koyie Hill to gun down Hernandez at third, spoiling the sacrifice attempt by Leake.

Orlando Cabrera singled to right, moving Leake into scoring position at second.

T-Pick then put rookie Chris Heisey in to run for Leake, ending his night and leaving him hanging with a would-be loss.

Brandon Phillips hit into a fielder’s choice that sent Heisey to third and forced the O.C out at second.

With two out and runners on the corners, the stage was set for Votto.

Nick Masset relieved Leake in the eighth inning and allowed a hit to Ryan Theriot, but prevented any further damage in the inning.

Coco Cordero finished the Cubs off, in three up and three down fashion in the ninth to register his 10th save of the young season.

Hernandez went 2-3 with one RBI as he raised his average to .279.

Jonny Gomes knocked in a run with a wall banger in the second, lifting his team-leading total to 19, until Votto drove in his 20th in the seventh.

The St. Louis Cardinals win over the Pittsburgh Pirates left the Reds 3.5 games back in the NL Central Division. Milwaukee also kept pace with the Reds and remain a game behind them in third place.
 
The Reds go to PNC  Field on Monday for a brief three game road trip against the Pirates. The first game of the series will pit Bronson Arroyo (1-2) against Ross Ohlendorf (0-0) who will make just his second start of the season.

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