Kuzul

The Cincinnati Reds are going to have to trade Joey Votto in the next six months to two-and-a-half years.

People may think I’m crazy or that what I just said is blasphemous. I think it is reality.

Votto just won the NL MVP award. He just led the Reds to the playoffs for the first time since 1995. He has put up good numbers ever since he broke into the league.

He also lost his father in 2008. He missed time in 2008 and 2009 dealing with depression and anxiety stemming from the loss of his father. He went back up to Canada to be with his mom and three younger brothers. He needed to be the rock of the family.

Depression is a debilitating and horrible disease. Almost everyone knows someone who has been affected by it.

Family means something to Votto. He needed to make sure they were all right while he was battling his own demons. None of us can fault him for that.

Votto just signed a three-year deal for $38 million. That contract covered the rest of his arbitration years that the Reds controlled anyway, but not a single year of free agency. When asked about signing a long-term deal, Votto said the following:

“I don’t know as far as beyond three years. I think that’s a very unfair question to ask. This is not me saying I don’t want to be here. But last year was a difficult year. This year was a better year for me. It’s really hard to think three years ahead, five years ahead, seven years ahead.

“When (Troy) Tulowitzki signed that 10-year contract or whatever it was, I was blown away. I can’t imagine seeing myself 10 years from now and saying: ‘I want to be here.’ It’s an overwhelming thing to ask a young person like myself and say: ‘Here’s a lot of money, be happy with this over 10 years. Deal with it.’ You don’t know where you’re going to be in one, two, three years.”
 
Over the years I have learned to read between the lines. I grew up a diehard Cleveland everything fan. I saw Jim Thome leave for the Phillies for a few extra bucks. I saw Manny Ramirez leave for a mountain of cash. I also saw LeBron James stab Cleveland fans in the back on national TV during The Decision. Leading up to all of their departures, you read comments and realized they were leaving.

Votto is 27 years old, but he is still searching for happiness. Money can’t buy happiness. He didn’t want to sign a long-term deal and be tied to the Reds for the rest of his career. He wants options.

I also believe he ultimately wants to go home to his family. I think Votto leaves the Reds in three years to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. He would be 30 years old then, still in his prime and in position to help them contend for the AL East if their young pitching continues to develop.
 
If that were to happen, who am I describing? This player left the team that drafted him after seven years in the league. This player left after signing a three-year deal. This player has won at least one MVP trophy. This player took a franchise that had been down for quite some time and returned it to glory. This player was the best on his team. This player was the fan favorite.

The correct answer is both Joey Votto and LeBron James.
 
However, Votto wouldn’t be leaving so he could take his talents to South Beach. Marlins fans can go cry themselves to sleep. LeBron James left Cleveland because he is a coward.

Cleveland is the most downtrodden sports town in America. We haven’t won a title in 47 years and counting. That is unfathomable. Every Cleveland fan feels the pressure season after season. Some of us might die and never get to taste what it feels like to be a winner.

LeBron felt all that pressure as the Chosen One. He was one of our own. Born in northeast Ohio, he understood what it meant to be a Cleveland fan—or at least he should have. Instead he is a Yankees, Cowboys and Bulls fan. Clearly bandwagon to the core. He didn’t have the intestinal fortitude to break the curse that haunts Cleveland sports.

Right before he left LeBron told a friend, “I don’t want to get to 31 with bad knees and no championship.” He is a quitter. He took the easy way out.

He went to the Heat so he could play Robin to Dwyane Wade’s Batman. He didn’t want the pressure of carrying a franchise. He wanted to go party with his friends in South Beach and have Wade and Chris Bosh help carry the load. Things were too tough in Cleveland, and LeBron wanted an easy path to the rings.

He didn’t care that he would no longer be considered the man. That Jordan, Magic, Bird and Kobe would have never left to team up with their main rival. They would have tried to beat their rival’s butt.

LeBron left a team that had the best record in the league back-to-back years and four years ago made the NBA Finals. He had an owner that was willing to go way over the luxury tax. He wasn’t leaving a bad situation. He was leaving for what he thought was an easier situation.
 
LeBron left for all the wrong reasons. Votto would be leaving for all the right ones. Votto would be going to play for his hometown, not running away from it. Votto would be going to spend time with his younger siblings before they grow up and possibly move away, not going to hang out with his friends.

We would have to respect the decision Votto was making, even if it hurt. If you really love something or someone, you need to let them go. If they come back, they are yours forever, and if not, it wasn’t meant to be.

Kenny Lofton, a borderline Hall of Famer, had three different stints with the Indians. Every time you saw him suit up for someone else, it didn’t feel right. Each time he came back, the fans loved him more then ever before. He represented the glory days and reminded us of why we loved him so much. We appreciated him more after he was gone, and even more so after he came back.

Maybe after Votto’s family situation is in a good place, he would come back to the Reds someday. We should welcome him back with open arms.
 
With all that said, you can’t let Votto leave and be left empty-handed. One option is to keep Votto for all three years and just flat-out go for it all. If you get a ring, great, but if not, you are left holding the bag. Votto leaves, and all you get is draft pick compensation.

However, the Reds have Yonder Alonso waiting in the wings. Previously Reds fans agreed that trading Yonder for some missing pieces was the best plan. Yonder was young and talented and was going to be blocked at 1B by Votto. The Reds could probably keep Yonder down at AAA for one more year tops. Then something has to give.

The best plan may be to trade Votto. The only question is when. A lot of that depends on how the Reds are playing over the next three years. The Cardinals will always be stiff competition, the Brewers have geared up for a big push this year and the Cubs at least have deep pockets, if nothing else.

If the Reds are struggling and the Blue Jays or some other team comes with a Godfather offer, the Reds may have to take it. This opens the door for Yonder at 1B and helps stock the farm system with high-end prospects. Trading a former MVP in his prime may seem crazy, but it might be the best thing for the Reds.

Hopefully I am wrong and Votto signs long-term. At the very least, I hope Votto returns to the Reds someday after he leaves so that we can all reconnect.

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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one by one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Joey Votto did work on NL pitching in 2010, setting career highs across the board with 106 runs, 37 HRs, 113 RBI, 16 steals and a whopping .324 batting average.

In fact, Votto’s 2010 campaign was the first 35/100/100/15/.320 season among first basemen not named Albert Pujols since Derrek Lee posted a 45/120/107/15/.335 line in 2005.

So why do we have the 27-year-old left-handed slugger ranked four spots below his Mock Draft Central ADP?

First, Votto led the league in 2010 with a HR/FB rate of 25.0 percent. No other player posted a mark better than 21.7 percent. In the post-steroids era, it’s unlikely that anyone not named Ryan Howard can sustain such a high HR/FB rate in consecutive seasons. This isn’t to say Votto doesn’t have light-tower power. Rather, a rate in the range of his career mark of 19.9 percent is more likely in 2011.

Second, it’s worth noting that Votto posted a ridiculous 40.1 runs above average against fastballs last season, second best in the majors. Only five players have posted a higher mark in the last three years.

While Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce, Votto’s protection, are no slouches, both are much easier to pitch to than Votto, meaning he’ll likely see fewer fastballs in 2011. Of course this will lead to more free passes and fewer RBI opportunities for Votto, preventing him from improving on his 2010 total of 113.

While there’s no doubting Votto’s pure talent, his 2010 campaign fits into the same category as Carlos Gonzalez’s: unrepeatable. Expect a slight regression from Votto this season, though we still project him as the fourth-best first baseman in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For 10 consecutive seasons, fantasy baseball has had Albert Pujols dominate the first base position like no one else. However over the last couple of years, 27-year-old Miguel Cabrera has earned himself “Pujols-lite” status as he has gained the reputation of a high-average hitter with 35-home run power. Well, it’s time to welcome another 27-year-old to the discussion. Joey Votto has catapulted himself to the first round after a monster 2010 season and it’s between him and Cabrera on who will take over when Pujols inevitably breaks down in his mid-30s. Chris and I discuss who should get drafted first.

Chris: If there is one player that most closely resembles Pujols it’s Cabrera. In fact, he has a batting average of .326 over the past two years, which is better than Pujols’s batting average of .319 over that same time span. Since Cabrera made the move from Florida to Detroit three years ago he has averaged 97 R, 36 HR and 119 RBI to go along with a .314 batting average. The scary thing about Cabrera is that he’s still just 27 years old and is about to reach his prime in terms of power. He is already the second-best first baseman in fantasy and hasn’t fully reached his power potential. As a result he is a sure-fire top three pick and anchor to your fantasy team.

George: Chris, you mention that Cabrera and Pujols are very close in comparison, but the one major difference between the two is stolen bases. Last season, Votto swiped 16 bases, which lead all first basemen, and was two more than Pujols. How many bases did Cabrera steal? Three. Votto is on par with Cabrera in every other category (.324 BA, 106 R, 37 HR, 113 RBI) as they are both batters who can hit for power and a high average, but it’s clear that Votto has the advantage in the speed category. If he has another successful season in 2011 we might be calling him the heir to Pujols’ throne rather than Cabrera.

Chris: You’re right that Votto stole more bases than Cabrera last year, however I’m not entirely convinced that Votto will become a perennial 15+ base-stealer. After all, he stole only four bases in 2009 and seven bases in 2008. You also mention that Votto is on par with Cabrera in BA, R, HR and RBI. But you don’t mention that he was only on par last year. Between 2008 and 2009, Votto averaged 76 R, 25 HR, 84 RBI and six SB to go along with a .309 average. In those same two years Cabrera batted .308 and averaged 91 R, 36 HR, 115 RBI.

And oh by the way since Cabrera and Votto are both 27 years old, they were the same age in 2008 and 2009. As you can see, the difference between Cabrera and Votto is consistency. Votto has only had one great year whereas Cabrera has been consistently great since 2004. Cabrera has also averaged 158 games since ’04 while Votto has only averaged 144 games in his three big league seasons.

George: Both sluggers might be the same age, but by 2008 (Votto’s rookie year) Cabrera had already played in four full seasons. Votto has struggled with depression and anxiety issues in the past, but has still put up career averages of .314 BA, 89 R, 30 HR, 90 RBI and nine SB.  It’s often said that players don’t fully take off until their third season and if Votto’s 2010 was any indication of what he will bring in future seasons, there is no reason why he can’t be taken ahead of Cabrera in drafts.

As for the steals, it’s impossible to predict if he will repeat his 16-steal performance, but he did steal 24 bases in 136 Double-A games in 2006 and 17 bases in 133 Triple-A games in 2007. He might not steal 16 bases every year, but it’s not crazy to think he will be in the double digits.

Chris: I agree that Votto is a threat to steal double-digit bases but I don’t want to rely on him doing so because that is the only way he outperforms Cabrera next year. I think we can both agree that Cabrera and Votto are worthy of early picks and shouldn’t slip past the beginning of the second round. But to me, the first couple rounds are all about minimizing risk and I believe Cabrera is less of a risk than Votto. Cabrera has consistently put up exceptional numbers year in and year out so you know what to expect from him in 2011.

Votto on the other hand has only had one exceptional year and I do have some reservations about his power totals that year. In 2010 his HR/FB ratio of 25 percent was the highest in the league. The next closest was Jose Baustista and his 54 home runs at 21.7 percent. While 25 percent isn’t a totally fluky number, it is considering that Votto’s previous high HR/FB ratio was 18.5 percent. Before even thinking about taking Votto over an established stud like Cabrera, I need to see more than one great year from him.

George: It’s true that there aren’t many players as consistent as Cabrera. While Votto may join that crowd in a couple of years, he hasn’t been around long enough to gain that type of respect from fantasy owners. However, in his three years of professional ball, Votto has steadily increased his ISO (.209 to .276) and his walk percentage (10 percent to 14 percent). He has done all this while maintaining a steady strikeout rate (~21 percent) and line-drive rate (~23 percent). He has shown no reasons for us to doubt that he can continue to produce at an elite level.

With a lineup that includes Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips it shouldn’t be hard for Votto combine for 200+ R/RBI with similar power numbers. If you feel like “rolling the dice” with Votto, draft him ahead of Cabrera and gain that extra edge in steals in your league. Remember, only three first basemen (Votto, Pujols and James Loney) stole at least 10 bases in 2010.

More from our Debate Team series:

• Hanley Ramirez vs. Troy Tulowitzki

Check out our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

• Top 30 Catchers
• Top 30 First Basemen
• Top 30 Second Basemen
• Top 30 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Shortstops
• Top 60 Outfielders
• Top 60 Starting Pitchers
• Top 30 Relief Pitchers

Make Baseball Professor, the most personable fantasy baseball outlet on the web, part of your daily fantasy baseball routine for updated fantasy news and analysis. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter to stay updated throughout the season.

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Who was last season’s surprise team? Some may say the Giants for winning the World Series, and some may say the Rangers for making it to the World Series.

But in my opinion, without question…the Cincinnati Reds were THE biggest surprise in baseball last season.

After finishing fourth in the NL Central with a record of 78-84 in 2009, the Reds won the NL Central in 2010 with a record of 91-71. This was the team’s first winning record since 2000, and they won one of the toughest divisions in baseball.

How did this happen? I will say that the NL Central was a bit down last season in comparison to what they normally are. But the fact of the matter is, the Reds had a dominant offense, led by NL MVP Joey Votto.

Votto broke out onto the scene last year, leading the Reds in every major batting statistic (.324 BA, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 106 R, .424 OBP, .600 SLG, 1.024 OPS). A remarkable offensive season from a team that finished in the top-five in BA, R, OBP and SLG.

Let’s take a look at the Reds lineup and starting rotation heading into 2011:

C: Ramon Hernandez

1B: Joey Votto

2B: Brandon Phillips

3B: Scott Rolen

SS: Edgar Renteria

LF: Johnny Gomes

CF: Drew Stubbs

RF: Jay Bruce

SP: Edinson Volquez

SP: Bronson Arroyo

SP: Johnny Cueto

SP: Mike Leake

SP: Homer Bailey

CL: Francisco Cordero

How can the Reds improve their lineup from last season, try adding the 2010 World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Although he is getting older, and production as an everyday player may be down, Renteria is as clutch as it gets in the playoffs.

The Reds still have Paul Janish in the starting SS slot going into spring training, but I expect Renteria to win the job, or at least take away a significant amount of starts from Janish this season.

The outfield for the Reds was one of the most productive in all of baseball last season, and Jay Bruce should have an even better year this season. Only 23 years old, Bruce has already had three consecutive 20 HR seasons, and his power should only improve over the course of his career.

There aren’t many questions about this Reds lineup, they are still one of the best in baseball. If anything this 2011 version will be improved with the added production of Renteria, and with Bruce and Stubbs both entering their second full seasons.

The Reds starting rotation appears to be the biggest weakness heading into this year, and it showed during their early exit in the playoffs. Being swept 3-0 by the Philadelphia Phillies, the Reds made playoff history.

They were the team that allowed Roy Halladay to throw only the second no-hitter in MLB playoff history, and the first since 1956.

That explosive offense was nowhere to be found, but I would consider the overall team’s lack of experience as the biggest contributing factor in the Reds disappointing postseason.

Cincinnati needs a big rebound year from Edinson Volquez, and his health and performance alone will determine just how good the Reds can be this season.

However, the Reds are still a very good team without Volquez. Bronson Arroyo is a productive No. 2 starter, but the key to this rotation is the depth and young talent this team has.

Cueto and Bailey are 24, Leake is 23 and all three of these pitchers proved last season that they belong.

I know there’s been a lot of much deserved hype in regards to the new Phillies rotation, but WHEN HEALTHY, I strongly believe that the Reds now have the second best rotation in the National League.

When you combine the two, you get a team that figures to be a lock for a playoff spot. But with injury concerns, more pressure on the young talent this season, and a much improved division…well, let’s just say… In regards to another Reds October.

The hunt is on.

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I have semi-randomly chosen to start with the Reds, and will write a piece about each of the thirty teams, talking about what they’ve done in the offseason up to this point and how that projects for the upcoming season. I know there are moves yet to be made, but with most of the impact moves in the books, I think enough has happened to be able to gauge expectations for the upcoming season. If they make any major moves in the coming days, I’ll amend this article.

I thought it might be fun to begin with the playoff teams from last year, then go on to the teams that finished in the basements of their division before finishing with the most exciting bunch—the teams who were/are/should be on the cusp of contention. So, we begin with Cincinnati.

A lot of people liked the Reds this time last year, myself included, but I think most of us were expecting them to contend for the wild card. The fact that they went on and won the NL Central was exciting for Cincinnatians and for baseball fans looking to witness some new blood in the playoffs. Their speedy defeat in October indicated two things: primarily, they couldn’t hang with the Phillies, as everyone except Kevin Millar seemed to think, and that perhaps the Reds have some work to do if they want to make a run at another playoff appearance.

Rotation: Improved

Their rotation is the part of the team that I thought was most overrated last year. Bronson Arroyo’s value comes mostly from his durability, but also partly from the fact that he can occasionally spin an ERA in the threes. If you look at his FIPs, he’s probably a 4.40 guy, but give him a good offense (and a little luck) and he becomes a 17-game winner. Edinson Volquez is a wildcard. He could strike out more than a batter per inning and will walk a guy about once every two innings. I like Johnny Cueto the best out of the Reds’ top three. He’s cut down on the walks and developed an effective cutter, but it remains to be seen whether he can put it all together for a solid 200+ IP campaign.

The team’s ace-in-waiting will start the season in the bullpen, and we have not seen how well Aroldis Chapman’s excellent stuff will translate to the rotation. I hesitate to crown him his generation’s Randy Johnson just yet. The other two spots in the rotation should go to some combination of Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Travis Wood. Homer Bailey seems to have been around forever, but his 2010 gives reason for optimism as he cut the walks, raised the strikeouts, increased the first-pitch strikes. He’s a hard-throwing groundball pitcher and has the natural ability to be successful in the big leagues. Leake struggled after a phenomenal start to his rookie season. He’s a soft-tosser who needs to keep the ball on the ground. Wood seems to have the best control of the three, and I think he gets a shot at starting unless he falls apart this Spring, if only because the Reds already have two or three lefties in their pen and none in their rotation.

I have to say the Reds rotation will be better in 2011 than it was in 2010, if nothing else, because Aaron Harang’s starts will go to one of three guys who each have the potential to be productive major league pitchers. Cueto, Arroyo, and Volquez combined for an ERA of 3.84 last season, and I would expect the trio to be around there again, maybe closer to 4.00. They will need to combine for more than 464 innings this time around though, otherwise undue strain will be placed on the other three, none of whom will probably be allowed anywhere near 200 IP. I expect a few starts for Chapman somewhere down the line, and I expect him to be good, but his value will primarily come from what he does in relief this season. The Reds will field a competitive rotation but they lack any real ace-caliber pitcher (Chapman excluded for now) and only have one guy I consider a lock for 200 IP.

Bullpen: Declined (slightly)

The Reds’ bullpen ranked in the middle out of all MLB teams in most categories (ERA, strikeouts, walks, HR), but shouldered a heavier workload than 21 of the teams. Their closer is a classic seventh-inning guy. Francisco Cordero (don’t ignore his lucky HR rate in 2009) had the second-lowest K/BB rate of any closer in baseball, and the K’s are falling by the year. Yes, he was decent, but the Reds have better pitchers for their toughest situations.

They have arguably lost their best reliever with Arthur Rhodes jumping ship for Texas, but they expect to be competent against lefty hitters with Chapman and Bill Bray. Matt Maloney is another lefty who will get a chance though he lacks the strikeout ability of Chapman and Bray. Maloney made two solid starts for the Reds in 2010 and it will be useful for them to have as many guys who can start a game on hand as possible. Nick Masset was their most-used reliever and he’s an essential component of their late-inning game plan. He gets tons of grounders and can strike guys out. Jose Arredondo will try to come back from Tommy John surgery and Logan Ondrusek was decent, but the latter benefited from a favorable BABIP-against and the it’s hard to know what to expect from the former. Jordan Smith and Sam LeCure were both solid for the team in 2010.

Assuming Ondrusek’s luck neutralizes, Cordero doesn’t turn in another 2009, and Chapman doesn’t post an ERA of 1.00, I don’t think this bullpen will improve on what it did last year. That said, I don’t see them being that much worse. There is some depth, some talent that will need to prove itself, and at least one guy who will start games someday will be working from the pen.

Catcher: Declined

The same catching team from last year returns in 2011. Ramon Hernandez’s 2010 BABIP was a good 35 points above his previous career-high, so he won’t hit .297 again. If he can stay healthy for more than 100 games for the first time as a Red, he could contribute 12 home runs and a league-average OBP. Considering where he’ll hit in their lineup, however, his batting average is more important than his OBP, and I’m projecting it to be around .260.

Ryan Hannigan does have more walks than strikeouts in his career (even if you get rid of the intentional ones) and he actually saw more pitches in the zone (47.7%) than the average major leaguer. Over a full season, he’d probably produce about what Hernandez could be expected to, but as long as he’s the team’s backup, I cant expect him to influence games as much as their starter does and I think Hernandez declines from his 2010 form. If pressed, I do think Hanigan is the better offensive player.

Corner Infielders: Neutral

Joey Votto and Scott Rolen make for one of the best corner infields in the game and both are coming back in 2011. Rolen is nearing his 36^th birthday and showed he can still hit (.285) and hit for power (20 HR), both of which are about what we should expect this season. Joey Votto deserved his MVP award but his HR/FB rate was 25%, which is insane. I would expect no more than, say, 32 home runs from him. He hit more home runs on the road last year, so I wouldn’t say his power came entirely from Great American Ballpark but there was some luck there. His BABIP was high too, at .361, but it always tends to be around there for him so I am not expecting it to fall precipitously as he plays his age-27 season. Clearly, he is still a tremendous hitter and will be great. In addition his defense is solid and he can steal bases (16 in 2010). Scott Rolen was outstanding in the field last year as usual.

Middle Infielders: Improved

I like Paul Janish better than Orlando Cabrera for several reasons. Firstly, the two showed very similar batting averages (.260 for Janish, .263 for Cabrera) but Janish did a much better job getting on base despite seeing more pitches in the zone. Secondly, Janish has more power, and though neither has much, Janish could potentially hit 10 HR or so if he lasts the whole season. Janish hits the ball in the air while Cabrera is a groundball machine. The Reds will replace a guy who got on base at a clip of just over .300 with a guy who will probably do an average job of it. Janish also comes much cheaper than Cabrera. Edgar Renteria could step in if Janish struggles but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an improvement. Brandon Phillips has more power than most middle infielders, which makes up for his iffy walk rate and steal success rate. If he had better plate discipline, he could be a star, but as it is he should contribute another .270/.330/.440 line or something like that. Because of his OBPs, he looks more like a number six hitter than a leadoff guy to me, so hopefully Drew Stubbs or someone else steps up and takes that role.

The Reds’ middle infield is not outstanding, but should be serviceable. They will probably struggle to hit .280 as a pair, but with the team’s corner infielders hitting for average, that shouldn’t matter. The entire infield is good with the glove.

Outfield: Slightly improved

Jay Bruce’s extension got a lot of press earlier this offseason and he should continue to develop over the coming years. His is the best bat in this outfield and he could make a run at 30 HR but his BABIP might have been a bit on the lucky side last year when he hit .281. Drew Stubbs strikes out too much, but he’s very fast and has good power and would make a good leadoff man if he improved his contact rate. Another 20 HR is very possible from him. Jonny Gomes has tons of power but wont hit above .270 either. He doesn’t know how to hit groundballs, so he is a perfect fit for that ballpark, even if his defense is awful. The same three guys make up the 2011 Reds outfield, and I could see Stubbs getting a little better while Gomes and Bruce do more or less what they did last year. I think the Reds did the right thing bringing these guys back, letting the youth develop, and if it goes as planned, they will build on their success in 2010.

Bench: Neutral

Fred Lewis is the new fourth-outfielder and he should easily out-hit the duo of Chris Dickerson and Jim Edmonds who struggled in 2010. His defensive range is limited but the small outfield in Cincinnati will suit him well. Chris Heisey will also see time in the outfield. As a 25-year-old rookie last year, he hit 8 home runs in about half a season while striking out too much. He’s a much better fielder than Lewis though and should get some playing time for that reason. Laynce Nix wasn’t going to repeat his .291 average from last year, and I probably would have chosen Lewis over him as well. Miguel Cairo brings defensive versatility back to the Reds’ infield for two more seasons, and Edgar Renteria is always capable of a good week at the plate.

I like the Reds’ bench mainly because they have a few guys who have played that role in the past and done it well enough. It’s hard to evaluate benches as they shouldn’t be expected to have enough playing time to really make a huge difference. I wouldn’t want any of their bench players starting for me on a regular basis, but that’s ok. What their bench lacks is pop, but they have every one of their starters spotted in case of injury. The interesting thing here is, if anyone (except their shortstop) gets hurt, the replacement is a pretty big step below talentwise. Therefore, if the Reds lose a regular player for the season, they’re going to be hard-pressed to replace him. Fortunately, theirs is a fairly deep lineup.

Lineup: The Reds’ lineup is arguably the most complete in their division. It lacks major holes, but could stand to improve in some ways. Its heart (Votto, Bruce, Rolen) is especially strong and is supplemented with talent preceding and following it. Like last season, they probably could stand for more production from the first and second spots. These guys sacrifice some genuine on-base skills for better-than-average power, playing to the ballpark they call home. The 2010 Reds hit more home runs than any non-AL East team, and they continue to be a group that lives and dies with the longball. The also strike out a lot and don’t draw walks with the best of them. Playing to their ballpark is not an unwise strategy, but these guys would be so much better with a couple of really good contact hitters in front of Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Drew Stubbs remains the best candidate for leading off, and someone should work with him on drawing walks.

Expected win total: 84–89

I know that may seem kind of low. Last year’s 91-win club should have won 92 according to Bill James’ Pythagorean winning percentage. James’ formula doesn’t take over- or under-achieving players into account though. While I think the pitching is better as a whole, I am counting on it being less productive for them and thus the entire team being slightly worse off. In most cases, I’m expecting the Reds offense to be about as good or better than they were in 2010. The pitching is where I think they slightly overachieved, and I’m not ready to label Bailey or Wood the ace of the future just yet.

Their offense will need to score runs since all of their starters either can be beat or are relatively unproven. There is a lot of talent in that rotation, and the bullpen is competent, but there is no one that a good offense should fear having to face. I remain open to the possibility that a couple of these guys emerge and start winning games for them, and that will make the team that much stronger.

I see no way The Reds possibly regress to their pre-2010 form. They didn’t catch lightning in a bottle in 2010, they developed home-grown talent and it all came together for them. It wont fall apart that easily. The Reds should have no trouble posting a winning record again, but it remains to be seen whether the young guys develop further and how much they do so.

If you agree or disagree with what I’ve said, please let me know and say why. What do you think of the 2011 Cincinnati club?

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As we near Spring Training, it’s about time to start making predictions and forming projections for each team. While there are still many free agents on the market, a sufficient amount have been signed in order to rank each team’s offense. 

In ranking the league’s best offenses, there are many aspects being taken into consideration.

The ability to get on base is essential. You can only have so many Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn’s on your team before you start to lose efficiency.

However, the second major component is the ability to drive in runs. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Juan Pierre are all great, but without some pop in the lineup, they are meaningless to an extent.

Finally, depth is a major contributor to the success an offense can achieve. If (when) Carlos Beltran gets hurt, who do the Mets have to back him up? He may play the majority of the games, but the other 30 odd games count just as much. 

With that, I’ll reveal my power rankings for the all 30 Major League Baseball teams. While the batting order may be incorrect, the players on each lineup are not. I bet you can guess number 30…

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The Cincinnati Reds were able to sign the 2010 N.L. MVP Joey Votto to a three year $38M extension.

It allows both sides a chance to avoid the arbitration process and it gives fans peace of mind that Votto will be a Cincinnati Red for the near future.

Ok that’s great, but what’s going to happen in 2013?

That’s the question that Reds nation is wondering about in wake of the new deal. We’ll get to that in a bit, first let’s try and figure out who got the better end of the deal.

Votto will be averaging a shade under $13M a season, and that is more than he would have received in arbitration this season. On the flip side, he would be making much more money by the time 2013 rolls around.

So the amount of money is a wash assuming Votto’s production doesn’t tail off.

That’s the other side of this deal…will Votto continue to perform at an MVP like level? Votto hit .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBI in route to an outstanding season. The saber-metrics posse deemed him the most efficient player in ’10 and his defense was above average as well. He lead the Reds to the playoffs for the first time since 1995.

The 27-year old Votto looks to be in his prime and has improved every season as a member of the Reds organization since drafted in 2002. There aren’t any nagging injuries and he seems to have gotten over his battles with depression.

The bottom line: there are no reasons to think Votto won’t put up similar numbers for the next three seasons. But injuries don’t discriminate and that’s part of the security Votto gets with this deal.

No matter what happens, Votto has $38M in his pocket.

This is where the Reds are taking a risk. G.M. Walt Jocketty is looking at the big picture, and he sees the rising player salaries and mega-deals for players with similar production and decided to ensure the Reds have a player of his caliber for at least three more years.

Here’s what Jocketty had to say about the deal: 

“We felt it was fair market. It’s very good for him and the club. This and the Jay Bruce deal gives up cost certainty.”

And what Votto said on Monday:

“But I can’t imagine playing anywhere else,” he said. “I enjoy myself. I can’t imagine being with a better team. The Yankees or Red Sox—that’s a lot to deal with. I don’t want to go anywhere else. Three years was just what he came to,” he said. “I’m very happy. I don’t have to fool with arbitration. It’s cost certainty.”

There is that phrase again. “Cost certainty” must have been the buzz phrase between the two parties.

It seems that the Reds and Votto are both pleased with the deal. It’s too bad the “certainty” only lasts three years. But at this point, Votto seems very happy with the city of Cincinnati. He really cares about privacy and that’s something a big market team can’t provide.

Votto gets guaranteed money and security without giving up future years of free agency. The Reds get an MVP in the prime of his career at a price they couldn’t get on the free market.

If Votto keeps up his numbers and stays healthy, he will be commanding around $150-170M on the open market. For the first time in his career, he will be a free agent and will have the ability to do whatever he wants.

Will three successful years as a Red keep him in the Queen City?

Or will the endless amounts of zeros entice him to greener pastures?

The countdown to free agency begins. The Reds have three years to prove their worth.

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In a year in which nine-figure deals became unsurprising to hear in breaking news columns and contract extensions were given out like they were samples of cheese at a grocery store, you would think the reigning National League Most Valuable Player award winner would receive more than $38 million over three years, wouldn’t you?

Recently, Ryan Howard, first baseman of the Phillies, signed a 5 year, $125 million extension with the Phillies at age 31. Don’t you think Joey Votto, 27 years old, should be rewarded as well as Howard was? Granted, Howard’s contract was on the absurd side, yet even still, it seems like Cincinnati got away with this one. 

If we do a comparison of Joey Votto’s statistics versus those of Ryan Howard between the years 2008-2010, here is what we get:

Votto: .314 Batting Average, 86 Home Runs, 281 Runs Batted In, 27 Stolen Bases, 257 Runs

Howard: .269 Batting Average, 124 Home Runs, 395 Runs Batted In, 10 Stolen Bases, 297 Runs

If you take into account the power differential and the batting average differential, the two are very comparable.

However, it is clear that Votto is a more efficient fielder based on UZR (1.6 versus -12.6 in 2010). Also, Votto has a higher WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Howard. In the last three years, the sum of Votto’s WARs has been 16.0, compared to Howard’s 9.9. 

In conclusion, Votto should have received a contract similar to that of Ryan Howard. Even if you were to toss Howard’s contract out the window and call it a fluke, there are many other comparisons you can make to display that Votto got the short end of the stick in this deal. 

This off-season, Adam Dunn earned a $56 million contract over four years. Aubrey Huff signed for two years at $11 million per year. In other positions, Jayson Werth signed a seven-year contract worth $126 million and Derek Jeter signed a three-year deal totaling $51 million. 

Joey Votto is more talented than all of those players, and he has age on his side. So why did he only get three years worth $38 million?

Alex Rodriguez had no problem cashing in, neither did Mark Teixeira.

Troy Tulowitzki just signed an extension that will pay him $157.75 million over the next ten years. 

Looking at Votto’s deal, there are a few upsides for Votto. Three years down the road, Votto should be around his prime or slightly past it, but still producing MVP-esque numbers. At that point, he will be able to demand a huge nine-figure contract that will have him earning eight figures until he’s around 37.

So it does make sense for Votto in some regard, but you still have to pat the Reds on the back for keeping their top player at a good price relative to other deals around the league. 

This deal shows that the Reds are planning to win now, and they do not plan on throwing their fantastic 2010 finish out as a fluke. They are telling the league that they are ready to compete. This off-season, they have also added Edgar Renteria and Jeremy Hermida at low costs to help with any depth issues.

Given their young talent, the Reds have to be considered among the favorites in the National League. 

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With only a month or so until pitchers and catchers report to training camp, the final free agents are beginning to find homes at last. Jim Thome signed a deal with the Minnesota Twins, and Rafael Soriano has become the most expensive setup man of all time, hopefully.

I don’t see why anyone would pay $11 million for a setup man, but nonetheless, his contract has been signed, and it’s time to look at the future.

Joey Votto and the Reds have been back and forth about a possible contract negotiation. Has that happened now? Is anyone in the market for Bruce Chen?

For that matter, why is Carl Pavano still not signed?

Here are the latest MLB rumors and buzz.

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The Cincinnati Reds and Joey Votto have agreed to a three-year, $38 million contract. He can still become a free agent after the 2013 season is over.

Votto is the National League Most Valuable Player. In 2010, Votto hit .324/.424/.600 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI.

You can read about the other Reds moves this offseason, if you click here.

Here is everything you need to know about this deal.

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