This picture pretty much says it all. This is the attitude the Red Sox will have to have about the year 2011 and everything that came with it.
It was a roller coaster-type year for the Sox in 2011, but unlike most coasters, the biggest drop off came at the end of the ride, as opposed to the beginning.
Going 7-20 in September was the biggest free-falling coaster in MLB history—not to mention all the drama that followed!
Country music singer Kevin Fowler released a music video for his single “Hell Yeah, I Like Beer” back on July 22.
The entire Red Sox starting rotation makes cameos in the video.
Yup…Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey and Tim Wakefield—all five of them sing their praises to booze.
Fowler’s video created a little buzz in Red Sox Nation when it was released.
However, it’s really now over two months down the road that Fowler’s video is really gaining press and momentum.
Look here. And here. And here. And here.
“I Like Beer” is getting all of the press it’s getting now, of course, with the infamous and now well documented revelation that all of these guys, save Wakefield, routinely retreated to the clubhouse during games in off days to throw back beers, chow down on fried chicken and play video games.
The irony is terrible and also way too easy.
How can any Red Sox journalist resist the urge to reference Fowler’s video in any column about the alcohol-aided shortcomings of Boston’s starting pitching?
That Lackey and Beckett get the bulk of the screen time among the pitchers just adds fuel to the fire.
It’s truly all too perfect.
That said, I, and probably many other Sox fans, do think the beer-chicken-video-games story has become more than a bit overblown.
That said, Lackey, Beckett and Lester going lax on their conditioning probably did contribute to their personal and the team’s overall September shortcomings.
Point is, these guys’ clubhouse antics is just too good of a story to pass up.
And any good story needs a good name.
A buddy and I have decided to forever call this incident “The Curse of the KFC.”
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The Boston Red Sox pounded the Chicago Cubs into submission, 15-5, yesterday to win their seventh straight ball game. The Sox have now won 10 of 12, 13 of 18 and 22 of their last 32. They have the best record in baseball since April 16 and, more importantly, they sit just a half game behind the Tampa Bay Rays for first place in the AL East.
How did this happen?
It was just two weeks ago that Red Sox Nation was ready to call it a year and go back to rooting for the Celtics and Bruins in the playoffs. But much has happened in those two short weeks, including Rajon Rondo almost single-handedly beating the Miami Heat with one arm (try getting your kids to believe that one in about 20 years).
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have come together as a team and started playing like the club that everyone and their uncle picked to win the World Series.
The good news? They’re going to get even better.
Carl Crawford
Much of the blame for Boston’s poor start was placed squarely on the shoulders of the $142 million man, otherwise known as Carl Crawford. In reality, at least half the lineup was struggling. The Red Sox hit just .243 as a team in April and Crawford finished the brutal month hitting .155.
Since then, however, the star outfielder has really turned it on. He opened May with an 11-game hitting streak and has his batting average up to .212. He’s hitting .294 so far in May and has a couple of nice game-winning hits on his resume.
He’s still stuck in the eight spot in the lineup and will remain there until further notice, but this is still a perennial All-Star who’s only now beginning to play like one.
Crawford’s worst season in his 10-year major league career was in 2008, when he missed over 50 games and finished with a .273/.319/.400 line. He’s currently at .212/.247/.282. Crawford averages 13 home runs and 53 steals over 162 games. Right now he has one and six, respectively. Clearly there’s room for improvement.
It’s only a matter of time before Crawford unleashes a string of multi-hit games and gives the Red Sox offense yet another weapon.
John Lackey/Daisuke Matsuzaka
The Red Sox felt pretty confident with what they were going to get out of the top of their rotation, and the trio of Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz has certainly delivered so far this season. But the same can’t be said for the back end of the rotation.
Matsuzaka somehow rolled off two consecutive scoreless starts in mid-April, but the rest of the season has been a disaster. He hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in five of his eight starts and has almost as many walks (23) as strikeouts (26). He’s been so bad that the Red Sox couldn’t wait to get him off the field, putting him on the disabled list with a sprained right elbow. He’s not expected back until July, if ever.
Remarkably, Lackey has been even worse. The big righty has a 8.01 ERA and is getting smacked around like he’s playing T-ball. In 39.1 innings he’s surrendered 53 hits and 18 walks. In other words, an opposing batter has a better chance of reaching base than he does recording an out. Lackey’s crap fest earned him a spot on the disabled list alongside Matsuzaka, with what the Red Sox call a sprained right elbow.
It’s almost inconceivable that the two of them can continue to pitch this poorly, but even if they spend the rest of the season sitting on the bench (a trade is impossible at this point) the Red Sox can still take solace in that they have other options.
There’s the ageless Tim Wakefield, who’s already made two serviceable starts this season. There’s Alfredo Aceves, the former Yankee with starting experience. There’s lefties Rich Hill and Felix Doubront, just waiting for their shot to get back on the mound. There’s even the recently signed Kevin Millwood!
If the Yankees can make it through the first quarter of the season with Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon in their rotation, then odds are the Red Sox can find a competent pitcher somewhere.
Bullpen
The Bobby Jenks signing has been a disaster. The supposed seventh inning guy has a 9.35 ERA in 11 games and is currently on the DL with a strained right biceps. Dan Wheeler has been even worse with a 11.32 ERA in 11 games, thanks in large part to the four home runs he’s given up (tied for fourth on the team, including starters). Denys Reyes didn’t even make it through a week with the big club, earning his release after just 1.2 awful innings.
But there is hope on the horizon.
The bullpen has been anchored by Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and newcomer Matt Albers, but they’ve gotten positive contributions out of other pitchers. Scott Atchison is back after a strong year in 2010 and he pitched three scoreless innings last night against the Cubs. Ditto for lefty Rich Hill, who has yet to give up a run in 4.2 innings.
The Red Sox also recently acquired Franklin Morales, a lefty reliever who has a 3.86 ERA in 14 innings pitched for the Colorado Rockies. And don’t forget former prospect Michael Bowden, who was lights out in AAA Pawtucket and is now just waiting to get his name called.
It’s going to take some time, but the Red Sox have the resources to build a great bullpen.
This may sound like a collection of if’s, but every team in baseball has question marks. The biggest question for the Red Sox early in the season was could they get out of their slump? The answer, of course, was yes.
Now the question turns to guys like Carl Crawford, John Lackey and Bobby Jenks. History suggests that all of these guys will turn it around, but even if they don’t the Red Sox have Plan B already in place.
It’s going to be a fun season.
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Everybody is talking about John Lackey‘s recent struggles on the mound, but few have analyzed how and why this guy’s pitching has declined before our eyes since he joined the Boston Red Sox.
Perhaps the largest factor, in my view, is that Lackey, for unknown reasons, lost his effective fastball after he left the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
It sounds too simple to make sense, but I’m telling you that when Lackey last pitched for the Angels in the ’09 playoffs, he had an excellent, moving fastball. When he made his first few starts for the Red Sox in 2010 though, his fastball was not the same.
The question is: Can Lackey somehow get a little more velocity and zip back on his fastball?
It’s not an easy thing for a pitcher to revive a fastball, but Lackey must do that to return to anything close to his earlier form as an Angel. If he cannot improve his fastball, it’s hard to imagine him improving much, and it’s easy to imagine him continuing to struggle for as long as the Red Sox are willing to pay him for the rest of his five-year $82.5 million contract.
Most pitchers need a good fastball. Lackey desperately needs one right now.
That’s why Lackey’s ongoing problems in 2011 are so troubling: During most of his starts this year, his fastball has looked more like it did in 2010 than it did in ’09.
Any observers have noticed that for much of 2010 and so far this season, Lackey has become more of a breaking ball pitcher. He throws his curve all the time, even when it is not really sharp. It seems like he’s afraid to throw his heater, and one can understand that after seeing batters find it so easy to hit.
Witness the “meatball” fastball Lackey served to John McDonald of the Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth inning of his last start. McDonald hit it for a home run. Frankly, the pitch was so bad that it seemed many professional hitters would have tagged it.
Lackey has given up six runs or more in four of his seven starts in 2011. His ERA is now 8.01, one of the highest for all starters in baseball. There are plenty of other depressing stats we don’t have to cite.
What happened to the Lackey who pitched a gem against the Red Sox in the ’09 ALDS—a start in which he shout out the Sox and limited them to four hits over 7 1/3 innings? What about the Lackey who had a no-hitter going against the Red Sox well into a game in ’08?
Granted, Lackey was never a “shutdown” pitcher like C.C. Sabathia. He’s often allowed hitters to make some contact. However, it seemed Lackey was pitching as well as he ever had during ’08 and ’09.
How could Lackey go so downhill so quickly?
In a rare, excellent analysis of Lackey’s pitching posted on WEEI.com on May 12, Rob Bradford reported Lackey is throwing his fastball less often this season. He said Lackey throws fastballs 52 percent of the time while he used to throw it closer to 58-60 percent of the time.
For example, Bradford said that when Lackey pitched against the Red Sox in that ’09 ALDS playoff game, he threw 80 four-seam fastballs out of his total of 114 pitches, according to “the PitchFX tool.”
His fastball that night averaged 92.25 miles per hour. During the 2011 season though, Bradford said Lackey’s fastball has averaged 90.27 miles per hour.
In 2009 and before, Lackey relied on his fastball a lot to complement his outstanding curveball. Those were the two pitches he used the most and that he relied on to get hitters out. He also used a changeup and slider as secondary pitches.
At the end of the ’09 season, I posted an item on my Red Sox blog about how Lackey had improved as a pitcher over the previous year or two. I noted his moving fastball and mental toughness on the mound. I noted not only his ’09 ALDS performance against the Sox but also his ’09 ALCS performance against the New York Yankees, when he held the Bombers to three runs over seven innings, even though the Angels didn’t win that game.
I don’t know what happened to Lackey between the end of ’09 and the start of the 2010 season.
Maybe Red Sox pitching coach Curt Young and Lackey should go back and study the details of his mechanics at the end of ’09.
It feels hard to believe that Lackey could just lose his fastball that quickly. Red Sox fans all hope he can get it back.
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What We Learned:
It’s less than a week into the season, so almost nothing. But here are the things that stood out from the season’s first series.
–Progressive Field in Cleveland set consecutive low attendance records on Saturday and Sunday.
After an opening day sellout, the Indians sold 9,853 and 8,726 tickets over the weekend. I watched the games and there might have been a third of that many people actually in the stadium. This is after the Indians finished last in baseball in average attendance last year.
–The Rays may be in Trouble.
I was actually pretty surprised how highly many writers chose this team coming into the season. After losing Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza and virtually an entire bullpen–Joaquin Benoit (60 IP, 1.34 ERA), Rafael Soriano (45 SV, 1.73 ERA), Grant Balfour (55 IP, 2.28 ERA)–and replacing them with a group of has-been hitters and journeyman/never-was pitchers, many still considered Tampa Bay as division contenders or wildcard favorites.
Who knows, it could still turn out that way, but a team with Manny Ramirez as its cleanup hitter in 2011 is going to have trouble scoring runs. A team relying even moderately on Kyle Farnsworth as a closer is going to have trouble protecting leads. And even though everyone was worried about the Yankees starting pitching coming into the season, their five can probably match up decently with Tampa’s and they are going to score a lot more runs.
Oh and Evan Longoria is now on the DL.
–The Players who Stunk:
Manny: 12 AB, 1 H, 1 TB
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Josh Beckett and John Lackey were both treated to lavish paydays last season. To say that neither of them lived up to their deals in 2010 would be a colossal understatement.
Lackey inked a five-year, $82.5 million deal when he signed with Boston in December 2009. Beckett and the Sox agreed to a four-year, $68 million extension last April.
Both pitchers then went out and combined for a 20-17 record, a 4.91 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
Not exactly the stuff that wins Cy Youngs, huh?
Let it be said that Lackey was not as awful as Beckett. “Big John” did manage to lead the team last year in both quality starts (21) and innings pitched (215).
Beckett, however, presents a different story. It’s hard to imagine him being any worse than he was last year.
His alarming 10.6 H/9 was a whole two hits above his career H/9 figure. His 1.54 WHIP easily surpassed his previous career worst, a 1.32 mark in 2003.
So, what gives in 2011?
Both pitchers can fall back on legitimate excuses, though neither would ever do so publicly.
Lackey could offer that he was adjusting to a new city and a new division. He could point to Beckett, citing his ghastly 2006 which he followed up with a brilliant 2007.
Lackey just genuinely never looked like himself last year. He struggled all season with a new approach to his fastball, using his cutter almost exclusively over his four-seamer.
The cutter, which Lackey seldom ever threw before 2010, accounted for a whopping 41.9 percent of his pitches last year.
On the other hand, his the four-seamer, which Lackey had gone to over half the time in his three previous seasons, accounted for only 15.2 percent of his pitches in 2010. (FanGraphs)
Beckett, meanwhile, battled injury much of last year. He missed two months with a lower back strain, finally going on the DL in late May after a horrific start to the season.
Prior to his DL stint, Beckett was 1-1 in eight games with a 7.29 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. After coming back in late July, Beckett went 5-5 in 13 starts with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
Not exactly a massive turnaround, but the difference nonetheless signals some sort of improvement and righting of the ship.
Like Lackey, Beckett’s 2010 reveals an usual pitch-selection breakdown. He used his four-seamer less than half as often as he normally does, and he also got away from using his good curveball.
Instead, Beckett went with his two-seamer, cutter and change-up more often than he ever had before. (FanGraphs)
As the Red Sox get ready to head to Texas to open the 2011 regular season, both Lackey and Beckett remain question marks, particularly Beckett, who has had a rough spring.
In the meantime, the Red Sox are blessed to have Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz both locked up through 2014 at deals that are far more club-friendly than Lackey and Beckett’s contracts.
Moreover, if the younger of the two pitching duos continues to turn in Cy Young-worthy seasons, any misgivings and whining from fans concerning Lackey and/or Beckett is much minimized, for whatever that’s worth.
Aside from their respective on-field performance, it is still simply quite baffling that GM Theo Epstein handed Lackey and then Beckett the kind of contracts he did.
For these two pitchers, talented as they have been, to obtain the kind of deals they each did is stunning, given their ages, their abilities and the overall arcs of their respective careers.
Yet, one does not even need to parse apart these two as individuals; Beckett and Lackey each track near the top of the other’s comparison charts on Baseball-Reference.
Lackey and Beckett are big-game pitchers. They’re grinders. They’re innings eaters. They’re World Series winners. They are both never particularly stunning during the regular season, however both have October reputations that are well-deserved.
But are Beckett and Lackey great? Were they ever great?
Never mind greatness, the bottom line may just be that both are not even good anymore.
Some good indicators from last year though may point towards smoother 2011 seasons for these two.
Yet, the fact remains that if these two big-game Texans are ever going to live up to their XL contracts, it starts now.
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When Josh Beckett was traded to the Boston Red Sox in 2006, it was assumed he would be an Cy Young candidate and an ace for years to come. He was 25, an absolute hoss, and seemingly the reincarnation of Roger Clemens: a hard-throwing intimidator and strikeout king without fear.
And for the most part, he’s worked out for the BoSox just fine. He has pitched well—maybe not as consistently as Boston wanted—but he did lead the Red Sox to a Series victory in 2007, where he pitched lights out. His 2007 postseason: 4-0 with an ERA around 1.6.
Fast forward to now. Josh Beckett is no longer the ace of the Red Sox staff—Jon Lester is. He’s not the No. 2 pitcher either—Clay Buchholz is. In fact, Beckett is the No. 4 pitcher in the Red Sox rotation and is being jiggered by Terry Francona to make sure he starts the season against the Indians and not against the Yankees and Rangers.
Whoa…what’s happened to Beckett? Can he not even pitch to the Rangers without Red Sox Nation quaking in their caps? What’s wrong?
Well, checking the Fangraphs.com site, we see that Beckett has only lost only a touch off his mph, so arm strength is not the issue. No, looking further at the numbers, what the trouble seems to be is Beckett’s inability to spot his pitches like he used to. His curveball, once rock-reliable has lost movement and has earned a -2.1 wCB. His fastball, formerly his bread-and-butter pitch, has seemingly abandoned the lower half of the zone. Now up in the strike zone, Beckett’s wFB has plummeted and as a result, Beckett is relying more on his two-seamer and cutter to try to get better movement on his pitches.
It hasn’t worked. Contact against his pitches (not down in the zone anymore) is way up from where it used to be. Walks are also up to a career high for Beckett. Most telling, perhaps, is his swStrk (strikes swung on and missed) which is an all-time low. In short, he’s putting fatter pitches nice and up in the zone.
What’s also interesting to note is his change-up has actually gained almost three mph. So not only is his fastball slowing a bit, his change is speeding up. What the heck? How does that happen?
Well, last May, Red Sox manager Terry Francona expressed a concern with Beckett’s repeatable mechanics. According to the massblog.com of last May 29th:
“Josh Beckett’s return from the disabled list hit a roadblock yesterday after the Red Sox became concerned with the pitcher’s inability to repeat his delivery in a side session where he threw 20-25 pitches. Manager Terry Francona…said that Beckett was changing arm angles on his deliveries and that his inability to remain consistent is a cause for concern.”
Also, early last season, in the Boston Globe, (former) pitching coach John Farrell said:
“An additional side with Josh to reinforce, particularly out of the stretch, him getting back to a proper balance point and not getting his delivery too spread out to where he loses a downhill plane to his fastball. When he gets into a proper position, his curveball is less readable by an opposing hitter. Part of this is a constant use of the slide step that can cause some of the habits that we’re trying to recorrect here.”
If Beckett’s fastball isn’t really losing all that much mph, but batters are hitting him harder and he’s walking more per nine IP, logic would dictate that Farrell and Francona are right and that Beckett’s mechanics are fried, and he can’t locate like he used to. Seemingly this started somewhere in late 2009, when Beckett’s ERA ballooned from a mid-August low of 3.10 to a season’s end of 3.86 with a number of bad performances. Former pitching coach Farrell is quoted as saying on seacoastonline.com in late August after Beckett gave up 15 runs in 13.1 IP in 2 starts:
“(Poor) location of his pitches has caused the numbers to be where they are. It’s been a matter of missing with some fastballs up in the strike zone or a curveball that hasn’t had the same finish.” … And, Farrell added, that is easily correctable.
“For the majority of the season, he’s been so dominant in the bottom of the strike zone,” Farrell said. “Now, every effort is being made to get him down in the zone again. … But a little tidying of Beckett’s mechanics could produce a dramatic turnaround.
“There may be some times when maybe some added effort or an attempt to get some added velocity has caused him to get a little spread out (with his delivery) and caused him to throw the baseball on a little bit more of a flat plane rather than the downward angle that all pitchers need.”
For Yankee fans, the question is clearly, “Can Josh Beckett return to dominance?” Early signs are…not yet. Despite even more work on mechanics (new pitching coach Curt Young is shortening Beckett’s stride in an effort to get him to repeat his delivery more easily), spring training has been a repeat of last year, with nice flashes of hard heat and a sharp curve, then a terrible inning where he can’t seemingly get anyone out. So far, Beckett has the 5.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.4.
Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are an awesome No. 1 and 2. John Lackey had a so-so 2010 and at age 32, it’s possible, but not guaranteed that he will be better in 2011, though most projections figure he will be somewhat better. In any event it’s questionable that Lackey will be as dominant as he used to be pitching to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in tiny Fenway Park. And Dice-K, minus a great 2008 season, has been a disappointment.
The key is Beckett. If he returns to form, the Red Sox have a dominant starting three. And a dominant starting three pretty much ensures you’ll win a short playoff series. If Beckett doesn’t return to form, however…well then, the Red Sox blew a sack full of money on a pitcher who’s busted.
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I am in the midst of a series examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the AL East, on a position-by-position basis. The players at each position are being ranked in relation to their peers within the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in comparison to the other players.
Today, the series continues with a look at the No. 4 starters in each rotation.
The best player will earn 10 points for his team, with the remaining players being assigned points as follows: 7-5-3-1.
At the end of the process, I will accumulate all of the points for each team and create a divisional power ranking.
It is preposterous to think we know what is going to happen as the season progresses. There will be injuries. There will be trades. There will be unexpected distractions that impede a team’s progress.
That being said, this is how one person thinks the 2011 MLB Postseason might go, if the teams stay as they are, and no key players get hurt, and players don’t crash into unlucky, year-long, Adam Lind-status slumps.
Given the monstrous improvements the Boston Red Sox have made this winter, it’s funny to look back and consider that the “prize” of the last Hot Stove season in Beantown was none other than John Lackey.
It was something of a puzzling move when it was made, even more so when considering the generally “crap-tastic” season Lackey turned in last summer.
The other big news last winter came when the Sox inked Josh Beckett to a four-year, $68 million extension, an extension – look away if you have a weak stomach – that he’s just beginning now.
This after what can only be characterized as a disastrous season on the mound.
It’s easy to overlook the pair of hurlers given the Cy Young candidacy of Jon Lester and the emerging dominance of Clay Buchholz, but Sox fans would be wise not to lose sight of Beckett and Lackey.
For if the Red Sox are going to take a major step forward this year, one or both of them will have to find a way to resemble their old selves. Or at least dependable, big-league pitchers.
Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are tremendous acquisitions, and the lineup is now an unquestionable strength of the team. The bullpen, too, appears to have been solidified with the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, among others.
But take an effective Beckett and Lackey away from the starting rotation and suddenly you have two reliable starters and a bunch of question marks.
That’s what’s known in baseball circles as a big-time problem.
Beckett has had a disturbing habit of alternating between very good and very bad years, and by that math he is due for a standout campaign.
He also battled injuries last season and never rounded into form. There’s certainly evidence that proves how impressive he can be when he’s right, but the Sox are going to need at least a few glimpses of that Josh Beckett in the early going.
Lackey remains an even bigger question. Will he be the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting or will he remain Daisuke’s brother from another mother, an inconsistent hurler who is wildly frustrating to watch on the hill?
The truth of the matter is the Sox are probably deep enough to survive a sub-par season from one of the two.
But they can’t both disappear again like they did last summer. At least one of these guys is going to have to man up and pitch like the kind of guy worth the insane lumps of cash the Sox are shelling out.
Because for all the talk about how much better the Red Sox are, things will implode faster than the Metrodome roof if the team can’t go any deeper than two reliable starters.
And I’m not ready to lean on Daisuke or Tim Wakefield if Beckett and Lackey continue to struggle.
Are you?
Josh Beckett and John Lackey have a proven track record as solid starting pitchers. Beckett has been an ace and filed one of the great postseasons in recent pitching history. The bottom line is that the talent is there.
But the Red Sox will need to see it on the field this summer, or what has been hyped as a fairy tale story could wind up with a depressing ending.
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