Kuzul

Normally, one player stands out as the undisputed key to a team’s championship run.

Last year, Madison Bumgarner stepped up and helped lead the San Francisco Giants to a third World Series title in five years.

Before that, David Ortiz launched a monster shot off Joaquin Benoit to help the Boston Red Sox gain momentum, surge past the Detroit Tigers and eventually win a championship.

Can someone put together a similar performance in 2015 and live in postseason lore forever?

Let’s take a look at a critical player for each playoff team.

Begin Slideshow

A strong starting rotation is normally a necessity for any team with hopes of winning the World Series. Just ask the San Francisco Giants, who rode Madison Bumgarner to the 2014 World Series championship.

Bumgarner was terrific in both of his starts and returned as a reliever in Game 7 on just two days’ rest to throw five scoreless innings and help the Giants win their third title in five years.

The team that watched Bumgarner and his teammates celebrate from the losing dugout were the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals came close to winning their first championship since 1985 with strong defense and an electric bullpen, but their starting pitching left a lot to be desired.

Fast forward a little less than a year later, and the Royals have a commanding lead in the American League Central Division and have the second-best record in baseball. In July, the front office shocked the baseball world when they pulled off a trade for Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds.

The club gave up a trio of prospects for the pending free agent. The move was made with the expectation that Cueto would provide the team with something it lacked during its 2014 postseason run: an ace to anchor the rotation.

To this point, he’s been a total flop in a Kansas City uniform. It’s critical for the right-hander to figure things out because he’s an integral piece if the Royals hope to win a World Series championship.

What’s wrong with Johnny?

The Royals need Cueto to pitch the way he did before he was dealt to Kansas City. In 19 starts with the Reds, the righty had a 2.62 ERA with 120 strikeouts and a 0.934 WHIP in 130.2 innings pitched. Since the trade, the 29-year-old is 2-6 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in nine starts, according to Baseball Reference.

Things have gotten worse as of late. As Fox Sports indicates, Cueto has struggled mightily in his last five starts. He’s 0-5 with a 9.57 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP while serving up eight home runs.

He was acquired to finally give the Royals a top front-line starter, but he’s in danger of pitching himself out of the team’s postseason rotation.

The organization insists it isn’t a health issue, and trainer Nick Kenney tells Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star that Cueto is working hard to figure things out.

“This guy’s never come off the mound,” Kenney told McCullough. “He’s never skipped a bullpen. He’s never done any of that stuff. And all you do is you work with him on a daily basis. We put our hands on him each and every day. There’s been no indication, in regards to the work that’s we’ve done with him, that shows us that he is.”

ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted out a video of the Baseball Tonight analysts discussing Cueto’s recent struggles. They point out that Cueto’s location is the source of his issues. The analysts questioned whether or not Cueto will start Game 1 of the American League Division Series if he doesn’t bounce back quickly, but Tim Kurkjian said that the club’s other options aren’t much better.

As the video shows, the entire rotation has been putrid in September. They have a combined 6.50 ERA, according to Baseball Tonight. Kansas City lost eight of its past 11 games.

Here’s a look at the starters’ ERAs this month:

• Cueto: 9.39 ERA
• Yordano Ventura: 4.50 ERA
• Edinson Volquez: 7.20 ERA
• Kris Medlen: 6.94 ERA
• Danny Duffy: 4.50 ERA

Despite acquiring Cueto, the team’s starting pitching is even worse than it was in 2014. The club’s ERA among starters was 3.60 in 2014, and they averaged 6.08 innings. Currently, the Royals rank No. 21 in Major League Baseball with a 4.40 ERA and average just 5.65 innings per start, according to Fan Graphs.

As Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets, the Royals have a tough decision to make if Cueto’s struggles ensue over the next couple of weeks.

If the Royals can’t figure out his issues, the team won’t make it far in the playoffs even with a deep bullpen and strong defense.

Follow Chris Hauler on Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Kansas City Royals pitcher Johnny Cueto made the most of his home debut on Monday night against the Detroit Tigers, becoming the first pitcher since Cliff Lee in 2009 to record shutouts for teams in both leagues in the same season, per MLB Stat of the Day.

Coming off a pair of mediocre road outings in his first two starts with his new team, Cueto finally showed why the Royals paid a hefty price to acquire him at the trade deadline, striking out eight Tigers over nine scoreless innings to lead the way to an easy 4-0 victory.

The former Cincinnati Red only faced four batters beyond the minimum 27, allowing four hits and no walks on 116 pitches to improve to 1-1 in a Royals uniform.

Joining Curt Schilling (2000), Andy Ashby (2000), Paul Byrd (1998) and Randy Johnson (1998), Cueto is just the fifth pitcher in the last 20 years—and first in the last 15 years—to toss a shutout in his home debut after switching teams midseason, per Elias Sports Bureau (h/t ESPN Stats & Info).

The 29-year-old righty will have a fantastic opportunity over the next few months, as he’ll get to showcase his talent on an excellent team that plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark before hitting the free-agent market for the first time in his career.

As the ace of a pitching staff that otherwise lacks high-end talent, Cueto should have a very busy postseason if the Royals make a deep run.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The addition of a second wild-card slot has had a huge effect on the MLB trade deadline the past three seasons.  With so many teams on the fringes of contention, teams that have actually chosen to auction off assets have enjoyed a thriving seller’s market due to the scarcity of real impact.

Entering the All-Star break this season, 18 of the 30 teams have at least a 16 percent chance of reaching the Wild Card Game, per Fangraphs‘ playoff odds.  While teetering teams like the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers may add to the list of sellers, there again figures to be fierce competition for the top trade assets on the block.

With the league at a standstill for the next few days, let’s round up the latest trade buzz roughly two weeks before the July 31 deadline, starting with a pair of Cincinnati Reds stars.

Astros in on Cueto

The Houston Astros have been the biggest surprise of the season, and despite losing the AL West lead they held for most of the first half, Fangraphs still pegs the young squad with a 56.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason.  Consequently, Houston is looking to boost those odds with the highest-profile rental of the deadline period, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

The Astros have keen trade interest in Reds starter Johnny Cueto, and it appears he may even be their top target, if as expected Cueto hits trade market soon, people familiar with their thinking say.

The Astros just fell a half game out of first place after a very nice first half in which they led the AL West basically the whole way, and one person connected to their team said that “they know they need a starter.”

The Astros do have a nice one-two punch at the top of their rotation with All-Star starter Dallas Kuechel and potential Rookie of the Year Lance McCullers.  However, apart from Collin McHugh, the rest of the rotation has been a sinkhole, especially after Scott Feldman’s knee injury in May.  Brett Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez have been roughly replacement-level starters, and the Astros need at least one pitching upgrade if they intend on swimming with the top contenders in 2015.

Though Cueto got snubbed of an All-Star berth, his numbers aren’t all that far off from last season, when he finished runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting.  His 3.06 FIP is actually lower than the 3.30 mark he posted in 2014, and he’s cut his walk rate from 2.40 BB/9 to 1.67.  Cueto has gotten opposing hitters to chase 37 percent of his pitches outside the zone, the fifth-highest mark in the league, as his swing-and-miss stuff is clearly there:

Houston’s offense could use another table-setter besides Jose Altuve who can get on base, but pitching looms as an equally strong need.  Cueto would only be an Astro for two months given his expiring contract, but he would also enhance Houston’s chances of delivering a playoff berth ahead of schedule.

Bruce on the Block

Cueto isn’t the only player who could ship out of Cincinnati, as right fielder Jay Bruce could also end up elsewhere come August.  Heyman reports that the Reds are about to become full-fledged sellers, so despite being under contract, the 28-year-old could still move at the deadline:

Reds right fielder Jay Bruce is available in trade, league sources say.

The Reds are expected by rivals to become a full-fledged seller in coming days, perhaps shortly after the All-Star Game here, but to this point the one name being heard is Bruce, which is somewhat curious since they have multiple big players who are free agents after the year, and Bruce isn’t one of them.

Bruce has offered a proven power bat in the middle of the lineup for years and, according to Heyman, is under contract for a reasonable $19.5 million total through the end of next season (plus a $13 million player option for 2017).  With at least two years of team control, the Reds might be able to extract as large a haul for Bruce as Cueto or Mike Leake, both of whom are free agents after this season.

After a horrid start, Bruce has heated up recently, posting a gorgeous .342/.390/.632 line in July.  The poor BABIP luck that plagued him last season has begun to rebound, and with his lowest strikeout rate (22.2 percent) since 2009, teams in need of lefty power like the Angels and Royals could start a bidding war for Bruce’s services in the upcoming weeks.

 

Padres Shopping Shields 

The San Diego Padres were one of the biggest spenders this offseason, but the money hasn’t bought them a contending ticket.  Sitting 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games behind the second wild-card spot, Fangraphs pegs the Padres’ playoff odds at a minuscule 2.4 percent.  Facing that bleak outlook, San Diego is apparently shopping one of their big offseason adds, according to Peter Gammons:

On the surface, James Shields has regressed from his Kansas City days, posting a 4.01 ERA that would be his highest mark since 2010 and a career-high 3.09 walk rate.  However, as Beyond the Boxscore’s Murphy Powell argues, Shields’ peripheral stats suggest poor flyball luck that could spell a second-half rebound:

James Shields is striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings and walking nearly three per nine. If you prefer percentages, he’s striking out about 27 percent of the guys he faces and walking 7.7 percent, all of which are career highs. The home run rate will likely come down — it would be fairly remarkable to see that mark stay higher than 17 percent all year when the league standard is about 11 percent. Shields has made some changes with his curveball usage, and it’s been useful for the most part. The strikeouts and whiffs are great. With a 3.21 xFIP, we might see some better overall results for Shields soon.

Powell notes how Shields’ fastball and cutter have both gotten pounded for power this season, a troubling development given how often he throws those pitches.  Nonetheless, Shields’ batted-ball profile is virtually copy-pasted from last year, as he’s not giving up much more hard contact.  If the Padres really do sell low on Shields, they might be underselling his bounce-back potential.

Shields’ market might not be robust given his age (33 years old) and $62 million salary over the next three seasons, though he can technically opt out after 2016, per Spotrac.  Given his “Big Game” moniker, it would only be fitting for Shields to return to a contender in time for October once again.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Fangraphs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Predicting an exhibition is no easy task. 

There are too many outlying variables and factors to consider. While Major League Baseball’s is the only All-Star Game in which athletes play at or very near 100 percent effort—the sport does not really lend itself to playing at anything less—there are still remnants of an exhibition, such as playing as many players as possible or removing the best pitcher after a couple of innings so that he has virtually no impact on the outcome.

With all that said, no game is more fun to predict than this one, played at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park on Tuesday. The Futures Game is played Sunday, and the Home Run Derby happens Monday.

Rolling the events into one sphere so that the predictions spread across all three is even better. They allow for bold, fun and even absurd prognostications every year.

Begin Slideshow

For the next few days, it’ll be All-Star season in Major League Baseball. And that’ll be fun.

But after that comes the really fun part: trade season. The July 31 trade deadline is fast approaching, so we should see the top players on the market start flying off the shelves in the very near future.

Our purpose here is to ponder the ideal destinations for the five best players on the market. That means establishing a profile for each player and narrowing his suitors down to the best possible fit.

Another thing: When we say “five best players on the market,” we mean realistically on the market. As fun as it would be to talk about destinations for guys like Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gomez and Aroldis Chapman, a careful study of MLB Trade Rumors leads one to believe they’re likely staying put.

We’ll start with the least desirable of our five players and work our way to the most desirable player. Step into the box whenever you’re ready.

Begin Slideshow

If there were any doubts that Johnny Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the National League, a deserving All-Star and one heck of a potential trade piece, the Cincinnati Reds right-hander silenced them on Tuesday night.

Squaring off against uber-ace Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals, Cueto twirled nine shutout innings of two-hit, no-run ball, racking up 11 strikeouts with just one walk and earning his first shutout of the season.

It was a statement game—no two ways about it. For the Reds, sure, who moved to 5-0 against the Nationals this season and hung five runs on Scherzer in 4.2 innings.

Really, though, it was all about Cueto, who is one of five NL players vying for a final, fan-decided spot in the Midsummer Classic. Go ahead, cast your vote.

“Watching him play, I hope the fans took notice and vote for him,” said Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who missed the All-Star cut himself, per Cincinnati.com‘s John Fay.

“That was his A-grade stuff,” manager Bryan Price noted, per Jacob B. Lourim of USA Today. “Command with action, all the deceptive hesitations, the quick pitches. A shutdown game by our ace.”

MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince recently threw his support behind another ace up for the final All-Star vote, a fellow by the name of Clayton Kershaw:

If you’re like me and emphasize the “Star” in All-Star, how can you vote for anybody other than Kershaw? The reigning NL Most Valuable Player and three-time Cy Young Award winner is one of the biggest, brightest stars in this sport, and there’s no reason this midseason showcase shouldn’t include him.

He’s got a solid point.

Even with his numbers down from their preternatural peak, Kershaw remains one of the brightest lights in the big league constellation. There would definitely be something missing if he’s left off the roster.

But it’s not as if Cueto is some slouch. He finished second to Kershaw in Cy Young balloting last season, after all, posting a 2.25 ERA and pacing the Senior Circuit with 242 strikeouts and 243.2 innings pitched. Add the fact that Cueto would be pitching in front of his hometown fans at Great American Ball Park, and he’s the guy who deserves that final invite.

Speaking of Cueto throwing in front of the Cincinnati faithful, it’s worth wondering if he’ll be doing that much longer—at least in a Reds uniform.

Even after their win over the Nats, the Reds sit at 38-44, 15 games out in the NL Central with little hoping of climbing back into the race.

With so many clubs hovering around the edge of the playoff picture, the deadline figures to be flush with buyers.

An arm of Cueto‘s caliber should net a strong return, jump-starting a needed franchise overhaul.

Fox Sports’ Jeff Sullivan envisions a trade package that includes Cueto and flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman:

On their own, neither Cueto nor Chapman would be likely to return an elite-level prospect. Teams are just too possessive and protective of those. But, bundled, the Reds could opt to concentrate value. Instead of getting two prospects individually worth $X, they could get one prospect worth $2X. For Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, the Cubs got Addison Russell, and while the A’s probably wouldn’t do that again, it’s something to remember.

Certainly it would sting for Reds fans to lose their rotation and bullpen anchors in one fell swoop. But that’s the nature of rebuilds: pain today in exchange for gain down the road.

That’s talk for another day. At the moment, the Reds can sit back and appreciate what they’ve got. As he showed again on Tuesday in the nation’s capital, that is a man who can do wicked things with a baseball in his hand—no doubt about it.

All statistics current as of July 7 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto is the man.

The long-haired hurler went the distance against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, allowing just two hits and racking up 11 strikeouts in a 5-0 shutout.

He did it with a little help from a shimmy in his windup that he calls the “rocking chair”:

Cueto is up for the National League All-Star Game Final Vote, meaning that there’s a chance we could see the “rocking chair” during the Midsummer Classic.

Cross your fingers, folks.

[Twitter]

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Cincinnati Reds‘ season hasn’t quite gone the way the team and fans had hoped, but even despite having a losing record, the 2015 MLB All-Star Game hosts have several players who have made a strong bid to play in the Midsummer Classic.

No Cincinnati position player is in line to start this year’s All-Star Game. However, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a deserving candidate, like third baseman Todd Frazier.

Regardless of whether or not the Reds have a starter in the game shouldn’t matter. The team is guaranteed to have at least one player selected to the National League team, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the hosts get three players on the squad.

Keep reading to find out which Reds players have made the best case to represent Cincinnati at the Midsummer Classic.

*All stats are via MLB.com. On Monday, the Reds tweeted out the latest NL voting update.

Begin Slideshow

If you’ve ever wondered what Johnny Cueto would look like in pinstripes, you’re not alone.

The New York Yankees were curious enough to send a scout to watch the Cincinnati Reds ace pitch recently, per George A. King III of the New York Post. And the scout stuck around for at least two Cueto outings, per Jon Morosi of Fox Sports:

The Yanks were also looking at veteran Reds right-hander Mike Leake, King reported. Of Leake, an unnamed scout told King, “In the National League, he could be a 3; in the AL, a 4.”

Cueto, on the other hand, is an unambiguous No. 1, a game-changing prize who would instantly elevate any rotation.

There’s a wrinkle: Cueto had his next scheduled start pushed from Tuesday to Friday after spending time on the disabled list with elbow soreness, per Hardball Talk‘s Aaron Gleeman.

But let’s assume that’s merely a precaution and focus instead on Cueto’s typically stellar 2.98 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 90.2 innings. 

And let’s further assume Cincinnati is willing to move him, a question Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon, addressed in early June while chatting with MLB Network Radio’s Jim Bowden.

“They’ve made no indications to Johnny that they want to trade him,” Dixon told Bowden, “but reading the tea leaves, if they fall out of contention, it seems to make sense from their end because if they ride the season out with him and don’t make the playoffs, then they’re stuck with a compensation pick. And, from where I sit, I think they can probably get more than that on the trade market.”

As for an asking price for the 29-year-old—who made the NL All-Star team and finished second in Cy Young balloting in 2014—here are King’s thoughts:

Any team talking to the Yankees would have to ask for right-hander Luis Severino and/or outfielder Aaron Judge, but it’s not likely the Yankees would part with their two top prospects for a rental.

However, the Reds have scouted the Yankees’ system, and players such as outfielders Ramon Flores and Mason Williams and pitcher Bryan Mitchell might be attractive as part of a package.

It makes sense for New York to guard its most valuable trade chips, and Cueto is a short-term rental who will become a free agent after this season.

Make no mistake, though: Adding one of the top starting pitchers in baseball would be huge for the Yankees. Maybe huge enough to hand them the American League East, which at the moment is MLB’s most muddled, up-for-grabs division.

Entering play Tuesday, New York was 38-32, one game behind the Tampa Bay Rays.

The bats have held up their end of the bargain, plating 334 runs, second-best in the big leagues.

Yankees hurlers, however, own a pedestrian 4.42 ERA, worse than 22 other teams, many of whom won’t sniff the playoffs.

Michael Pineda is in the midst of a breakout campaign, and Masahiro Tanaka has shown flashes of brilliance. But Tanaka, who got shelled Sunday, is also a ticking injury time bomb, always seemingly a twinge away from catastrophe.

Ivan Nova—another promising Yankees pitcher set to start Wednesday, according to Newsday‘s Jordan Lauterbach—is working his way back from Tommy John surgery.

And hefty lefty CC Sabathia has been mediocre at best, posting a 5.31 ERA in 83 innings of work.

Tally it all and you’ve got a starting staff in search of a spine that’ll prop it up through the remainder of the 162-game grind and, if it’s lucky, into October.

Speaking of which: New York hasn’t tasted playoff baseball since 2012, which counts as an agonizing, unacceptable drought in the Bronx.

With seasoned hitters (Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez) staving off Father Time, the Yankees need experienced arms to pitch in. They’re an aging club for the most part, with a rapidly closing window. Plus, they’re the Yankees, a franchise in perpetual win-now mode.

Will they do what it takes to land Cueto? Possibly not, given their recent run of restraint and the legitimate questions surrounding his health. 

All the same, the Reds figure to at least dangle him as they fade out in the NL Central. And the Yankees, big fish that they are, should seriously consider taking the bait.

All statistics current as of June 22 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com