Kuzul

One of Bud Selig’s primary goals in adding a second wild-card playoff spot to both leagues was to put more teams in postseason contention, creating more excitement and fan interest throughout the summer.

A consequence of achieving that goal has been tamping down the trade buzz heading into the All-Star break, one of the game’s most exciting and heavily debated portions of the regular season.

Before the second wild-card spot was implemented for the 2012 season, as many as 10 teams could easily be declared sellers at this point, as they’ve fallen well behind each league’s best second-place club. But in the era of the second wild-card berth, more teams are willing to hang onto their assets and reach for the play-in game.

As a result, only five teams can realistically declare themselves sellers right now, and even that number is arguably too large as some of those teams still see themselves as a hot streak away from contending. And, unfortunately for the trade season, those teams are correct in assessing their chances.

That leaves only two teams as true sellers at this point—the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. However, teams are scouting pieces of several other clubs in case those hot streaks never come.

While many of the trade chips are good fits for several contending teams, we will look at the perfect fit for each player based on production, cost, value and need.

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With the July 31 MLB trade deadline just a month-and-a-half away, some Cincinnati Reds players are starting to find themselves involved in trade rumors.

Some of the rumors might have substance, but others are exactly what they are called—rumors. Fans love to discuss potential deals that their favorite teams may be involved in, but it’s up to the front offices to come up with deals that they feel are fair for their clubs.

Unfortunately for the Reds, injuries are hitting the team hard for the second year in a row. Every team has to deal with injuries, but not many have had to deal with the amount of key injuries that this club has suffered over the past two seasons. As a result of the injuries, the team has again put itself in a big hole.

Now, the front office must decide what to do with valuable trade chips like Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Parting ways with players of that caliber might be tough for a team to do, but it may benefit the organization in the future.

Cincinnati is showing signs of life as of late. The team is playing well, despite a number of injuries to players such as Zack Cozart (knee) and Marlon Byrd (wrist). That makes trade-deadline decisions that much tougher. Eventually, a decision must be made.

Below is a breakdown of some of the current rumors floating around.

RHP Johnny Cueto

With their chances of re-signing Cueto after the season slim, it seems like the Reds will be in position to trade their ace at some point before the deadline.

If Cincinnati does indeed decide to trade the All-Star pitcher, it will have plenty of suitors to choose from.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted that members from the San Francisco Giants organization were in attendance for Cueto’s last start against the Chicago Cubs, and Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported that the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers all had scouts at the game as well.

Cueto, 29, is one of the best pitchers in the game. Obviously, he should be able to get the team a nice return in a trade. However, his value will be limited, given that he is signed only through the rest of the season.

The right-hander is making just $10 million this season. For a pitcher of his caliber, that is an absolute steal. But that salary is going to jump up next season after he signs a monster contract this winter—a contract the Reds will not be able to afford. All of the teams reportedly scouting Cueto have been known to make big deals and would all be able to afford him with no problem.

That makes each of those teams an attractive trade partner to the Reds.

Cincinnati finds itself facing an interesting dilemma: It can trade Cueto for a decent return package, or it can hold on to its ace and get a draft pick when he leaves in free agency. Given the fact that teams won’t be willing to deal away their top prospects for maybe just a half-season’s worth of Cueto, taking the draft pick may not be a bad move for the Reds.

Again, should the Reds decide to deal Cueto, there will be plenty of teams interested. There are just nine teams in all of Major League Baseball that are not within five games of a playoff spot. With Cueto’s team-friendly contract, there aren’t many playoff contenders that wouldn’t be interested in his services.

The only problem is that the longer the Reds wait to make a trade, the less they will get for him. Knowing that and the possibility that he could get hurt, the team needs to be actively looking to deal the pitcher right now.

RHP Mike Leake

Cueto and Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels are going to be the most coveted starting pitchers on the market, but Leake isn’t going to be far behind.

The 27-year-old Leake has proved himself to be a consistent and reliable pitcher since debuting in 2010. The right-hander gives his team quality innings, and he doesn’t get hurt. Those are both things that teams want to see in a pitcher.

Rosenthal noted that Giants scouts were on hand to see Leake’s latest outing, and George A. King III of the New York Post reported that the Yankees had a scout in attendance as well.

The athletic pitcher may be better suited for the National League, given his stuff and ability to swing the bat (.227 career batting average). However, he wouldn’t have a problem pitching in the American League, as his 3.83 career interleague ERA (in 18 starts) shows.

Leake’s 2015 salary is comparable to Cueto’s at $9.775 million. That shows how much of a bargain Cueto is, but it also means that no contending team would have much of a problem taking on Leake’s contract for the remainder of the season. For a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher a team can rely on, Leake’s contract is reasonable.

Like Cueto, Leake is in the final year of his contract. That will limit his trade value as well.

Should the Reds decide to hold on to Leake and see what happens after the season, things could get interesting. Leake would be more affordable than Cueto, although CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that the club never approached the former first-round draft pick about an extension last offseason. That could mean that the team doesn’t view Leake as a part of its future.

There’s no doubt that the Reds have plenty of young arms that they see as the future. Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Robert Stephenson are all promising young pitchers who are much cheaper than Cueto and Leake. If those young arms continue to impress in the coming weeks, it could convince the front office to deal both of its veteran pitchers with expiring contracts.

All stats are via MLB.com.

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From Johnny Cueto to Ben Zobrist, there are certain big leaguers who have a big chance of getting traded before the 2015 MLB trade deadline passes.

Simply put, the most likely trade chips are good players on bad teams. The righty ace and the Swiss Army Knife of baseball both fit that bill. Cueto and Zobrist aren’t the only players on the Cincinnati Reds and the Oakland Athletics, respectively, who crack a spot on this top 10.

But no team is better represented on the list than the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Even if the Cincinnati Reds don’t get back into contention, they are going to be a team that has a big impact on the pennant race.

Why? Because the team has plenty of attractive trade chips.

The proverbial window appears to be closing on this Reds squad. Some of the key players are entering the final year(s) of their contracts, which will force the club to make some tough decisions. Keeping those players would certainly help the club stay relevant, but trading them would help the organization in the future.

The Castellini family has been determined to bring a championship to Cincinnati since buying the team nearly a decade ago. Ownership has done a great job of turning the franchise around, but now, it faces some crucial decisions that could affect the team for years to come.

With plenty of trade chips on the roster, Cincinnati has the ability to control the market come July. Keep reading to find out which players the Reds should deal and which they should keep.

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It’s what’s on the agenda when a team is eight games under .500 and 11.5 games out of first before June. Because a Reds rebuild seems all but certain with ace Johnny Cueto playing in the final year of his contract, it’s time to assess what’s worked and what’s in store.

What has Walt Jocketty assembled in the last seven seasons, and what did previous general manager Wayne Krivsky leave him with? The following is a list of the Reds’ first-round draft picks from the past decade:

2005: Jay Bruce, OF

Has time snuck up on you too? Jay Bruce was drafted 12th overall that year and was widely considered the future. He was called up to replace Corey Patterson in the early part of 2008 after hitting above .300 across three minor league levels in 2007.

Did he go on to become the Reds’ future? The term’s subjective—after all, it was Bruce’s looping swing that ended the playoff drought and brought the Reds back for the first time in a decade. It’s hard to argue that he became the face of this franchise—Joey Votto or Johnny Cueto may have thoughts on that matter—but there’s no denying he’s contributed in a big way.

His rookie season, he finished No. 5 overall in Rookie of the Year voting, he’s a three-time All-Star with two Silver Slugger awards, and he finished No. 10 in MVP voting two years straight (’12-’13).

He’s a career .250/.323/.486 but has 571 RBI and 189 home runs. In now his eighth year, Bruce has only hit fewer than 20 home runs once—last year, a year that featured arthroscopic knee surgery.

Despite a lengthy slump, there is no denying how prolific Bruce has been to a playoff roster. This was a successful pick by Krivsky. Considering his contract and the Reds’ oncoming fire sale, it’s likely we’ll see the end of the Bruce era here. He’s likely to fetch a good return, especially if his recent hot streak continues.

2006: Drew Stubbs, OF

Believe it or not, Stubbs was the eighth overall pick that year. He ended up debuting with the Reds in 2009 as the Reds were assembling their new product post-Griffey-Dunn Era, ripe with high draft picks.

In a lot of ways, Stubbs contributed—his defense in center was good, and averaging nearly 30 stolen bases and over 12 home runs a season was good. But power aside, Stubbs was not a good hitter. His OBP was never higher than .329; .255 was the highest average he’d have in four years—all of which are very forgettable, especially for a top-10 overall draft pick.

But Walt Jocketty turned Drew Stubbs into Shin-Soo Choo, a pivotal piece of the Reds’ 2013 playoff campaign. And for that, Stubbs proved even more useful.

2007: Devin Mesoraco C, Todd Frazier 3B, Kyle Lotzkar RHP

Can we universally agree the first two names from 2007 are successes? Both made the All-Star Game in 2014, and Frazier was a Home Run Derby for what it’s worth, the first Reds participant since Ken Griffey Jr.

But Frazier is currently No. 2 in NL home runs behind Bryce Harper. His career line in now his fourth season is .258/.328/.461, but there’s no denying the impact he’s had on the Reds offense. He’s had two good batting average years (.273 in ’12 and ’14) and two bad ones (.232 in ’11, .234 in ’13).

He’s one of the only notable acts happening at Great American Ball Park right now. Devin Mesoraco perhaps would be, but he can’t stay healthy. The young slugger has made it to the disabled list again after just 51 plate appearances.

For his career, he’s slashing an unimpressive .242/.313/.423. But Mesoraco has just two years since 2011 where he’s played in over 100 games. He was an All-Star last season, a season that featured a career-high 440 plate appearances.

Kyle Lotzkar came and went. This was a swing and miss of Jonny Gomes caliber. He never made it higher than Double-A, which is where he’s at now, within the Texas Rangers organization.

Thus ends the Krivsky portion of the re-evaluation. Time to see how Walt did.

2008: Yonder Alonso, 1B

Was Yonder Alonso a successful pick? Walt Jocketty turned him and two other first-round draft picks into Mat Latos, the key No. 2 in the rotation that earned the Reds the 2012 NL Central crown. He was also the pitcher who surrendered the deciding Buster Posey grand slam to end that season.

That was Latos’ most important pitch as a Red, but there’s no denying his three exceptional years in a Reds uniform, never finishing with an ERA above 3.48 and tossing over 200 innings twice.

2009: Mike Leake SP, Bradley Boxberger RHP

Despite Mike Leake’s recent struggles, this pick skipped the farm and went right to the pros after being drafted. He’s never been asked to be the ace, and prior to this season, he’s never had to play the role of a No. 2 guy. So his career 55-46 3.97 is a remarkable contribution.

Leake threw over 200 innings for the first time last year. He’s on pace to do it again this season. Should the Reds enter rebuild, Leake is a candidate for trade, but he’s also an extension candidate, especially if and when the Reds move Cueto and free themselves of enormous fiscal responsibility.

Bradley Boxberger was packaged with Alonso and one other to land Latos.

2010: Yasmani Grandal, C

Grandal was also moved in the package for Latos. Devin Mesoraco won the role of Reds future catcher in Cincinnati.

2011: Robert Stephenson, SP 

Baseball America‘s No. 1 Reds prospect and one of the Reds’ only two Top 100 MLB prospects (MLB.com), Stephenson has struggled mightily since reaching Double-A. In now his third Double-A season, the promising right-hander is 9-16 with a 4.87 ERA.

That’s not to say there isn’t serious potential here—there most assuredly is. In 39.1 innings pitched, Stephenson’s recorded 46 strikeouts. That’s serious. The problem is his control. He’s averaging 6.6 walks per nine innings. Command has plagued him since reaching Double-A, after he finished averaging seven walks per nine innings in 2013.

2012: Nick Travieso SP, Jesse Winker OF, Jeff Gelalich OF

Nick Travieso is developing fine as the Reds’ No. 8 prospect. He’s 2-4 with a 3.88 ERA and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s just in High-A, so it’s unlikely we’ll see him anytime soon.

Jesse Winker is the other Top 100 MLB prospect the Reds are sitting on and the Reds’ No.3 prospect, according to Baseball America. Prior to his wrist injury last season, Winker was killing it. But since reaching Double-A last season, Winker is slashing .225/.341/.333.

That could be just due to a cold start—Winker did impress in the Arizona Fall League (hit .338). Still, there’s no reason to suggest he’s regressing or anything yet, not unless his averages remain like this for the whole season. 

Winker is considered by man to be the heir to Jay Bruce’s throne in left field. 

Jeff Gelalich is now in his fourth minor league season. He’s still hovering around High-A and is only slashing .240/.326/.332. This left-handed hitter is a working project, often displaying flashes of potential, but he lacks consistency. 

2013: Phillip Ervin OF, Michael Lorenzen SP

Ervin bats behind Gelalich for the High-A Daytona Tortugas. It’s the highest level of competition he’s seen, and thus far he is handling it fine, slashing .253/.338/.460 in 202 plate appearances. 

Ervin wasn’t listed as an organizational top prospect, but he’s coming off a poor season in Dayton, where he hit just .238.

Michael Lorenzen, the No. 4 organizational prospect, has been an incredible draft pick so far. Lorenzen was pitching in Double-A last season. He started this year in Triple-A, and following season-ending surgery for Bailey, he’s pitching in The Show and doing it well (1-1, 3.12).

2014: Nick Howard RHP, Alex Blandino SS

A closer in college, the Reds tried converting Howard to a starter, and prior to this season, it was looking like a good move. This season has been brutal for Howard, though, and following a bad stretch where he surrendered 10 earned runs in three starts and never made it out of the fourth inning, he was moved back to the bullpen.

After three scoreless appearances from the bullpen, Howard’s been roughed up. He’s sporting a 7.03 ERA and a WHIP over 2.00.

Alex Blandino, however, is performing well in the same lineup as Ervin and Gelalich. He’s slashing .319/.405/.448. Numbers like this make him an enticing heir to Zack Cozart’s throne.

Krisky’s last picks, minus Lotzkar, were all good. The jury is still out on Jocketty’s 12 picks. Three of the 12 became Latos, who ultimately became Anthony DeSclafani, so hard to knock those. Two of the 12 are currently in the Reds starting rotation. The other seven are in development, but none of them above Double-A.

Still, from a pitching stance, the pipeline seems stocked with future contributors, provided they make it.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless noted otherwise. Organizational rankings compliments of BaseballAmerica.com while Top-100 prospects come from MLB.com.

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Johnny Cueto was ruled out for his scheduled start May 24 due to soreness in his elbow and general stiffness he’s been experiencing since his start against the Kansas City Royals on May 19. Cueto remains day-to-day.

Continue for updates.

Cueto Out vs. Indians 

Saturday, May 23

The Cincinnati Reds announced that Raisel Iglesias will start against the Cleveland Indians in place of Cueto, who is battling “general stiffness.”

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported Cueto has soreness in his elbow. Fay also reported Reds manager Brian Price said Cueto is day-to-day and could probably pitch Sunday, but the team wanted to allow him to rest.

Cueto is the anchor of the Reds rotation, but the team’s depth may be put to the test.

Cueto was a durable rock for the Reds in 2014 and finished the season with 243.2 innings pitched, a 20-9 record and a 2.25 ERA. Throw in a 0.96 WHIP, a 6.4 WAR, per ESPN.com, and 242 strikeouts, and it is clear why he was one of the leading Cy Young Award candidates in the National League.

The Reds are hoping for a similar season from their ace in 2015, but this latest setback could make that type of production difficult. Cueto dealt with injuries throughout the 2013 campaign and started only 11 games, so there is a history of health problems here.

Cincinnati fans certainly hope this latest one doesn’t linger.  

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Based on your general disposition, you see the Cincinnati Reds in one of the two following lights: They’re a team at or floating around .500 with baseball’s worst OBP and worst bullpen ERA, or they’re a team at .500 and tied for the remaining wild-card slot.

History suggests Reds owner Bob Castellini will see the latter. He’s a competitive soul, so long as the Reds can sniff a playoff spot, don’t expect them to sell.

Still, given both scenarios, if the Reds make any deals this year, it is likely they’ll hit the market as sellers rather than buyers. They’d rather subtract payroll than add more. So if the Reds fall out of contention, the following is a short list of trades they should be thinking about.

Johnny Cueto, SP

If the Reds are selling, consider Johnny Cueto the Apple Watch. He’s the biggest trade chip the Reds have, and he’s guaranteed to bring a sizable return for any team willing to make itself an immediate World Series contender.

Any team trading for Cueto at the deadline is probably already good enough to be in contention. Cueto would make that team good enough to win it all.

His price tag is unclear. Last year, the Tampa Bay Rays were in a similar situation with ace David Price, who was near the final year of his contract. When they finally moved Price, they received Drew Smyly, a talented MLB-ready starter (now 19-14 with a 3.23 ERA in three years), infielder Willy Adames, rated the No. 77 prospect by MLB.com this year, and infielder Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners, a first-round draft pick from 2009.

That’s a sizable return for the Cy Young-winning Price. Cueto doesn’t have a Cy Young, but he finished No. 2 last year in National League voting, and he’s already off to a good start in 2015.

The Boston Red Sox are a suitable match. They have the second-worst rotation in baseball and the worst rotation in the American League. They do have Henry Owens, an impressive left-hander in Triple-A. They also have a good, young left-handed batting outfielder in Brock Holt, who’s hitting .278/.388/.450 this season at the major league level.

Marlon Byrd is only a temporary solution, and 2016 is rapidly approaching for Jay Bruce, so Holt would be a natural request. They also have Deven Marrero, a 2012 first-round draft pick who is now a Triple-A shortstop hitting .291/.368/.659.

Brandon Phillips, 2B

Remember, this is only if the Reds are selling. And if they’re selling, there’s no reason to keep Brandon Phillips and his contract on the payroll. He’s having a good season by every measure, slashing .316/.343/.357, and that’s why he must be moved if the Reds are selling.

His value will never be higher.

After the Reds failed to move Phillips last year during the offseason, expect them to try again. It may not be far-fetched to see Walt Jocketty package Cueto with Phillips, though, in fairness, Phillips should be performing well enough to require a decent return—maybe a top-10 prospect, depending on how persuasive Walt can be on the phone. 

It’s not just his bat. He’s healthy, and his defense is as good as ever. Phillips has become a valuable trade chip in a short time. If he can keep his production up, especially at this rate, the Reds should have no problem flipping him.

With the New York Mets‘ David Murphy hitting .210 in 100 games, the Mets could be potential suitors. Eric Sogard has been underwhelming in Oakland, so Phillips is also an option for Billy Beane, who won’t hesitate to fill a need at the deadline. 

In all likelihood, moving Phillips would be more about payroll reduction and less about return.

Jay Bruce, OF

Jay Bruce is a sell-low candidate, but considering his contract is up in 2016, the Reds have to consider getting something for him if they want to rebuild. 

Bruce is slashing a miserable .176/.290/.396—this following his worst career year, a year in which he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery. Neither his current slash line nor last year’s is remotely close to his career numbers.

If the Reds are trying to rebuild, Bruce won’t be a part of it. And he won’t bring much back—maybe a good prospect. Most people would have expected more for a talent as prized as Bruce.

Bruce is a good option to deal for on the cheap and stick in the middle of a lineup. Despite a poor slash line, he has 15 RBI, third on the team. 

How valuable is the RBI stat when measuring a player’s value? 

Bruce has been a memorable part of this team’s core for a long time, but with his contract nearly up, he makes for an easy trade candidate—unfortunately in the sell-low category. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Cincinnati Reds are getting no love.

In the most recent season outlook, Grantland writer Ben Lindbergh’s NLC Preview uses a lot of data and makes mathematical projections, and not even the numbers are improving this team’s outlook. In case you haven’t got around to it, here’s an excerpt on why we can expect the Reds to suck in 2015:

Projected Record and Over/Under: 76-86 — PUSH. With [Joey] Votto injured, Ryan Ludwick and [Jay] Bruce banged up and slumping, [Brandon] Phillips declining, [Billy] Hamilton disappointing and [Zack] Cozart being Cozart, the Reds had one of the weakest lineups in baseball last season, despite [Devin] Mesoraco’s breakout and Todd Frazier’s dependable bat. Votto’s return, Bruce’s likely rebound and Marlon Byrd’s arrival should restore the scoring to a respectable level.

If GM Walt Jocketty keeps the roster intact, the Reds could rival the [Milwaukee] Brewers, but if he resigns himself to a rebuild and deals [Johnny] Cueto and Byrd at the deadline, Reds fans will be in for some bad baseball in the second half.

According to this outlook, if everything goes in the Reds’ favor, they should be good enough to compete with the Brewers.

It’s hard to knock something so objective. But, you clicked to read why we should be optimistic, and there are a few reasons, actually. The Grantland article makes several predictions that, if true, would probably cause the Reds to perform as poorly as everyone thinks they will. 

First, the article assumes Votto will miss about 40 days. That would be crippling. Second, the projections say Raisel Iglesias will finish with a 4.93 ERA. And finally, the rotation includes Jason Marquis right now, not Homer Bailey. While this is accurate, it shouldn’t be the case going past April.

The following is a short list of reasons to be optimistic for the Reds’ 2015 season:

1. The team has proven MLB talent. 

No one outside of Cincinnati cares that an almost identical roster managed 90-to-90-plus in three of the last five seasons. But the irrelevance doesn’t make those feats invalid. The roster is full of talent. 

Hardly anyone is talking about what the Reds offense could look like. But ESPN’s Doug Glanville is. He recently pegged the Reds offense as No. 2 in the National League in a live broadcast on SportsCenter.

With the arrival of Byrd, and hopefully prolonged health for the annual contributors, it’s hard not to be excited about the potential of this lineup, which features speed, patience and some power.

Everyone knows what they can expect from a healthy Votto, Phillips and Bruce. And then, of course, there’s Frazier and Mesoraco, who became contributors last season. But consider how the bench has performed this spring:

Brennan Boesch: .382/.379/.655
Chris Dominguez: .327/.333/.618
Kristopher Negron: .385/.475/.577

There are suitable options off the bench, a luxury the Reds haven’t enjoyed in a long time, minus former fan-favorite Chris Heisey, who is no longer with the team.

The Reds currently boast an MLB top-10 offense this spring, and at +36, only three teams in all of baseball have a better run differential. It’s not necessarily optimism at this point; it’s just what is physically happening.

2. The starting rotation has performed well this spring.

This is not by any means is an indicator for success. But it’s a lot better than a questionable rotation getting shelled before the season starts. The following is a list of ERAs currently held by the starting rotation:

Cueto: 3.86
Mike Leake: 0.64
Anthony DeSclafani: 3.51
Marquis: 3.46
Iglesias: 3.68

And one unforgettable detail is that this isn’t the 2015 rotation, just the one for April. The Reds still stand to gain Bailey and his 3.71 ERA from last year. His ZiPS projection is 3.54 in 173 innings, via Rotochamp.com, where you can see it next to every other projection, most of which all predict a good season out of Bailey.

We know what we’ll get from the front of the rotation because we’ve seen Cueto, Leake and Bailey for years. We know how good they are. We have absolutely no idea how MLB-good DeSclafani will be, or Iglesias.

I take their projections with a grain of salt only because they virtually have no MLB data to base anything on. They’re question marks. If even just one of them can replicate what Alfredo Simon gave them last season, the Reds will stand a good chance of winning four out of every five games.

3. 2014 can’t happen again.

Nothing analytical about this point, just pure subjective assertion. Everyone’s over the injury talk, and they should be—we’re like a week from Opening Day. Move on, but don’t forget a pivotal lesson we all learned: injuries to critical players have critical consequences.

We watched a team go from winning 90 games in 2013 to winning 76 games in 2014, with virtually an identical roster. Regardless of popular tough-guyisms bestowed upon us by local media, a team isn’t going to overcome the loss of that many vital contributors in a season.

Even local media that dismissed injury as a reason for 2014 are finding it harder to validate their previous convictions. Take this dramatic 180 from The Cincinnati Enquirer columnist Paul Daugherty in his morning blog just this week:

I saw two more entities pick ’em to finish 5th in the Central. That’d be last, scorekeepers. SI.com and W. Leitch think that way. Leitch figures they’ll win 74. Ouch. I’m not known for bubbling optimism, and I’m no FanBoy, but … doesn’t anyone else believe this team can win 85-ish, not barter Cueto at the deadline and at least keep us interested through Labor Day? They can’t possibly be as hurt as last year, right? Jay Bruce had an aberration last season, not a definition, yes? Joey Votto will be back to his new self, getting OB 40 percent of the time, depending on others to provide the semi-meaningless RBI, yeah?

Why no love for the Redlegs?

Why no love for the Redlegs? A great question, as there were probably readers asking Daugherty the same thing last September when he wrote this:  

Do not go into the offseason believing this year was an injury-fueled aberration.

Do not believe that a healthy Joey Votto would have made a 15-game difference. Or even a 10-game swing. Ten games better would still put the Reds a game behind Pittsburgh, for the second wild card.

Do not think the season would have been a roaring success with Mat Latos healthy in April and May, with Homer Bailey whole now. Believing that health is the answer is a fool’s game. Who’s healthy this year might not be next year. 

This isn’t about any one columnist. I’m simply making the point that not even the most ardent and unforgiving of critics last year can stand by what they wrote. And we shouldn’t either.

The negative outlook surrounding the Reds, mathematically, incorporates data from a time when it didn’t matter. National analysts and computers only care about the data, which is never a bad thing. But that’s data from a bombed and depleted 76-win Reds team. That’s data on two pitchers, Iglesias and DeSclafani, who have virtually no MLB data on them. 

I think the outlook for this season is grossly underrated. And on that note, I must defer to Chuck D and Flavor Flav.

Stats courtesy of MLB.com, unless noted otherwise.

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The Cincinnati Reds have a multimillion-dollar predicament on their hands.

In Johnny Cueto, the Reds have one of the best right-handed starters in all of baseball. What they don’t have, however, is a multiyear contract for the 29-year-old star.

Unfortunately for the organization and its fans, that multiyear deal may never come to fruition.

The Reds aren’t exactly flush with cash, their farm system could use a little boost, and they don’t look like a team that’s poised to compete for a division title in 2015 (let alone a playoff spot).

So instead of wasting time trying to figure out how they’re going to re-sign Cueto (or not re-sign him), why not deal him and look to rebuild for a run following the 2015 season?

It only makes sense, right? No? Here are three reasons to help change your mind.

Little Chance to Extend Beyond 2015

When I try to envision the negotiations between Cueto and the Reds’ front office, I imagine it going something like this:

The Reds “could” extend Cueto beyond the upcoming season, but do they really have the financial reserves to extend him? In short, no.

Before getting into the logistics of a long-term deal, take a look at the high-profile signings of recent pitchers in order to get a feel for what extending Cueto will really cost:

Cueto is slightly older than the average of the high-profile pitchers in the chart above, and while that would seem to work in the Reds’ favor, our most recent comparisons come in the form of a 30-year-old Jon Lester and a 31-year-old Max Scherzer.

Prior to the 2015 season, Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner, received a seven-year deal worth $210 million, while Lester, a three-time All-Star, received a six-year, $155 million contract.

Of all the players listed above, Scherzer and Zack Greinke probably give us the best range of possible contracts for Cueto.

Scherzer‘s $210 million deal would be the absolute ceiling for a guy like Cueto, and Greinke, who got a six-year, $147 million deal prior to the 2013 season, represents Cueto‘s baseline (barring injury).

For argument’s sake, let’s settle somewhere in the middle of those two average annual salaries ($27.25 million) over six years. That makes for a six-year deal worth a whopping $163.5 million.

How does that fit into the Reds’ plans for the future? Not very well.

Excluding arbitration-eligible players and a potential contract extension for Mike Leake, the Reds have $82.03 million in payroll obligations for the 2016 season, per Baseball Prospectus. 

Add Cueto‘s hypothetical contract from above to the group, and we’re looking at a total of $109.28 million in salary commitments with just eight players under contract.

Given the Reds’ midlevel payroll, this leaves them essentially no room to account for arbitration-eligible players, rookies, and any necessary signings.

Beyond 2016, do you like Aroldis Chapman? How about Jay Bruce? Signing Cueto in conjunction with their current post-2016 obligations makes the prospects of signing one of those players much more difficult, while the idea of signing both becomes a pipe dream.

Need any more convincing? Earlier this month, the Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told the MLB Network (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that he didn’t believe the team could sign Cueto to a long-term deal.

“I’m not sure we’ll be able to, because the numbers are obviously starting to skyrocket and it’s very tough in our market to continue to retain guys at a high price like that,” Jocketty said. “We’ll continue to work on that and see where it comes out.”

To be fair, he did state that they’ll “never say never.” But does that first quote really instill the kind of confidence you need to believe that they’re capable of locking Cueto into a long-term deal?

Long-Term Financial Flexibility

This goes hand in hand with the fact that the Reds don’t really have the funds to make a Cueto extension possible, but it’s more than just that.

The Reds have some other high-value players coming up on free agency, including two other potential big earners in Chapman and Bruce. Beyond these two, they need to worry about players who are due for arbitration and the prospects who will come up and fill holes as the team would progress through a hypothetical six-year deal.

The Reds could do a lot with the projected $27.5 million annual salary outlined above. For a mid-market team like Cincinnati, that amount of money could give the Reds enough to lock up prospects to long-term deals, or, it could be used to bring in free agents who will help supplement the roster.

The Reds need a long-term option at shortstop (the verdict is out on Eugenio Suarez) and could be in the market for a new right fielder and closer if one or more of Chapman and Bruce decide to walk in free agency.

Beyond that, left field will again be empty following the 2015 campaign, as Marlon Byrd’s contract is set to expire following the season’s culmination.

That extra money the Reds would save from trading Cueto can be used to fill those holes. 

Consider the recent string of free-agent position players who have signed in free agency, along with their average annual salary:

That money the Reds had to earmark for a possible Cueto extension could’ve been used in the signing of any one of these players.

Though it’s unlikely that it would’ve jumped to sign any of them, the team could’ve taken one last stab at success in 2015 and addressed holes in its roster by signing the likes of Nori Aoki and Asdrubal Cabrera for a combined $12.2 million, and that’s only half of the money Cueto will likely earn following 2015.

I guess what we’re trying to say here is that in a market like Cincinnati, it’s tough to justify possessing the luxury of a $25 million-per-year pitcher when you already have $95 million locked up in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips between now and the culmination of the 2017 season, per Cot’s Contracts.

High-Value Return

The most enticing reason to trade Cueto comes when you assess what the Reds could get in return for his services. Trading Cueto guarantees two top prospects and the potential for a little more to round out the return package.

Consider the high-profile teams that could be in the market for a starting pitcher of Cueto‘s caliber:

• Boston Red Sox
• San Diego Padres
• Seattle Mariners
• Los Angeles Dodgers

Those are four teams projected by Baseball Prosepctus to finish at or near the top of their respective divisions. Meanwhile, depending on their view of the 2015 season, organizations like Baltimore and the Yankees warrant a mention based on their current rosters and projected finishing positions.

Fortunately for the Reds, some of those teams are well represented in the lists of top farm systems.

Here’s a roundup of how some of the top sports sites rank the farm systems of the six teams mentioned above:

The Sox and Dodgers are the two teams the Reds would most like to deal with, and rightfully so given the depth of their farm systems.

Of all the teams mentioned above, the Red Sox seem like the most likely potential suitor. In fact, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe confirmed Sunday that the Sox were one of four teams who made a serious push for Hamels.

In that article, Cafardo noted that the package was “heavy on the major league side, trying to avoid giving up any of their top prospects.”

If this is the case, then the Reds and Red Sox aren’t a match either. However, the Sox rotation is clearly the weak point in their roster. The team has what looks to be a collection of No. 2 and No. 3 starters, with the only potential No. 1 lying in the newly acquired Rick Porcello.

If the Red Sox lose a starter during the spring, or decide that their depth isn’t enough, then they could be a perfect landing spot for Cueto.

The Reds would be happy to deal with the Sox if Boston proves willing to deal one or more of its high-level prospects.

A package comprised of LHP Henry Owens, 3B Garin Cecchini and SS Deven Marrero or Sean Coyle would be a great look for the Reds. That’s the type of haul that could help send the Reds’ farm system from the middle of the pack to near the top of the majors.

Wrap-Up

The Reds don’t have a lot of wiggle room in this Cueto situation. The team doesn’t look like it will be competitive late enough in the season to warrant keeping the 2014 Cy Young runner-up around, and it also doesn’t appear as though the money is there for them to re-sign him.

My answer to the issue is to trade Cueto.

As great as the Dominican Republic native has been for the organization, and as much as he’s contributed to its success, the Reds aren’t the Yankees or the Red Sox, and they can’t afford to lock up such a large portion of their available funds into so few players.

Cueto himself set an Opening Day deadline for negotiations, and it seems implausible that the Reds could get a deal done before said deadline.

If that’s the case, and Cueto has another Cy Young-caliber season, he’s as good as gone.

To trade Cueto, or not to trade Cueto. That is the question!

Thoughts on the issue? Leave them in the comment section below.

Follow me on Twitter: @TylerDuma.

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