Kuzul

For any team looking for a summer rental, there are two clear properties that stand out above all other options.

Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann are aces being made available for trade because their teams have one year of control before they can hit the open market as free agents. The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, respectively, do not believe they can sign their pitchers for market value, so they are attempting to get more than a compensatory draft pick for them before they can bolt, although both teams have engaged the pitchers on extension talks this month.

The market for both aces seems to have been tentatively set by Jon Lester, who signed a six-year, $155 million deal with the Chicago Cubs earlier this month, and it might go higher depending on what Max Scherzer gets later this offseason. While Cueto and Zimmermann have expressed a desire to stay with the teams that drafted them, they will do so only “if the numbers are right,” as Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon, told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Both players have informed their teams they will not negotiate extensions once the regular season starts. 

“If it’s a fair value, like I have said all along, I would gladly sign,” Zimmermann said about a contract extension with the Nationals, via Chase Hughes of NatsInsider.com. “But at the end of the day, it’s gotta be something that’s fair and if it’s not, then I’ll be moving on.”

Assuming the Detroit Tigers will opt to keep David Price and that Cueto and Zimmermann are more desirable in trade than the Nationals’ Doug Fister, the question becomes which No. 1 starter is worth the price and risk of the one-year rental.

The first and biggest concerns are the prices. And, man, are they high.

The Reds have some hope to contend in 2015 despite a loaded National League Central to wade through, and they have already traded pitchers Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. That means they are likely to hang on to Cueto and try to get him to re-up in Cincinnati, although they have open ears. 

Sources: Clubs keep asking about Cueto. #Reds steer talk to Latos, Leake, Simon. Listening on Cueto, though. Would bring biggest return.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2014

It also means that if the Reds do agree to trade their ace, they will have to get the kind of package in return that makes them the unanimous winner in the deal. Or, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com put it last month, the Reds would have to be “absolutely overwhelmed” to trade Cueto.

The price for Zimmermann is no cheaper. There are two key clues to support that. First, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post‘s James Wagner, “We’re planning on having all three of them [at spring training].” He was referring to soon-to-be free agents Zimmermann, right-hander Fister and shortstop Ian Desmond.

Second, Rizzo appears intent on getting back high-profile, major league-ready prospects in return for Zimmermann, as he has targeted the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners as possible trade partners, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported. Both organizations have deep pools of young and controllable talent.

Rosenthal’s report also claimed Rizzo offered Zimmermann and Desmond to Seattle for hot prospects Taijuan Walker and Brad Miller but was rebuffed for obvious reasons—cost of the veterans ($27.5 million) and Seattle didn’t want to lose cheap control of Walker and Miller for rentals.

Assuming a team is willing to dig deep enough into their farm system to acquire Cueto or Zimmerman, each ace’s monetary cost is another issue. Zimmermann will make $16.5 million in 2015, more than twice the $7.5 million he made last season. Cueto will earn $10 million next year, clearly making him the more attractive target, especially since both will essentially pitch as 29-year-olds next season—Cueto turns 29 in February, Zimmermann in May.

Durability is a bit of a concern, since Cueto missed significant time in 2011 and 2013. He was limited to 11 starts in 2013 because of a lat muscle injury, but in his full years of 2012 and 2014, he ended up leading the National League in starts, pitched more than 200 innings, and finished in the top four of Cy Young Award voting both years.

For comparison’s sake, Zimmermann has made 32 starts in each of the last three seasons, although he topped 200 innings only once.

There is also the fact that Cueto has done the majority of his work in the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park, a stadium that surrenders home runs at the fourth-highest rate in the majors. Washington’s Nationals Park gives them up at the second-lowest rate, making Cueto’s home run numbers a bit more attractive. However, the Reds had a much better defense than the Nationals in 2014, which makes Zimmermann’s line last season more impressive.

The fact is both players will likely cost a fortune to acquire and will more than likely explore free agency rather than re-signing with a new team. Those risks are built in. Considering that plus the 2015 cost of each, Cueto may be the less risky acquisition simply based on what it would take to land him. Plus he has been better for longer and was arguably better than Zimmerman in the 2014 vacuum.

It does not seem likely either ace will be traded before they report to spring training unless their respective clubs significantly lower their asking prices. But if it happens, either pitcher could turn into the most impactful trade acquisition of the offseason.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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If the Cincinnati Reds were holding out hope of Johnny Cueto giving them a hometown discount on an extension, it sounds like they can forget about it.

And if they have any sense, that will be their cue to find a trade for Cueto before the winter is up.

The latest on Cueto comes from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. He spoke to the star right-hander’s agent, Bryce Dixon, and found that not only is there an Opening Day deadline for Cueto and the Reds to agree to terms on an extension beyond his walk year in 2015, but that the price in mind is a lot higher than the $105 million deal Cincinnati gave to Homer Bailey last year.

“[Jon] Lester is a better comp,” said Dixon, adding: “[Max] Scherzer‘s the closest comp.”

We know Lester signed a six-year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Courtesy of Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com, we know Scherzer is seeking a $200 million contract in free agency.

That’s where Cueto‘s team’s asking price is: between $155 million and $200 million, preferably closer to the latter.

That’s a big demand, to be sure. But it’s not unreasonable.

Where Lester and Scherzer are both past 30, Cueto hasn’t hit 29 yet. Also, any version of WAR based on runs allowed can show that he’s arguably the best pitcher of the three as far as recent history is concerned.

If we use FanGraphs‘ RA-9 WAR, for example:

The knock on Cueto is that he hasn’t been as healthy as Lester and Scherzer in recent years. While they’ve both made around 130 starts since 2011, Cueto‘s only made 102 thanks to shoulder injuries.

But when Cueto has been healthy, his WAR domination reflects just how good he’s been.

He posted a 2.25 ERA and led the National League in innings pitched and strikeouts in 2014, finishing second to Clayton Kershaw in the Cy Young voting. He has a 2.48 ERA over the last four seasons. That he’s done all this while pitching at an extreme hitters’ ballpark half the time makes it doubly impressive.

Point being: The Reds are going to be very hard-pressed to talk Cueto down. So they can either empty out their pockets to extend him, head into 2015 and hope for the best or bite the bullet and trade him.

One of those ideas simply makes a lot more sense than the others.

The idea of the Reds meeting Cueto‘s asking price wouldn’t be scary if they were free of long-term financial commitments. If that was the case, a deal worth $25-30 million per year could work.

The Reds, however, aren’t free of long-term financial commitments.

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they have at least $50 million in commitments every year between now and 2019. That’s thanks mainly to Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, who will combine for nearly $40 million in salary in 2016 and over $40 million in the years after.

If the Reds were to extend Cueto at his price, they’d be looking at having three players account for somewhere between $60-70 million in salary every season for the foreseeable future. For a small-market team that, according to FanGraphs, only has a $30 million-per-year local TV deal, that’s bonkers.

Now, the wild card in the Reds’ future is that they’ll soon be getting a new local TV deal, as theirs is set to expire after 2016. Knowing what we know about baseball TV deals, it’s safe to assume the Reds’ local TV revenue will soon be getting a boost.

But if the Cleveland Indians can only go from a TV deal worth $30 million per year to one worth $40 million per year, the Reds might not do much better. And even if their annual local TV revenue were to, say, triple to $90 million, they’d still have three over-30 players eating up the bulk of that. 

So we’re best off scrapping the idea of the Reds extending Cueto at his price. That would be financially foolish at worst and financially risky at best. 

This leads us to the idea of the Reds just hanging on to Cueto and going for it in 2015. That’s the one they seem hell-bent on clinging to, for reasons that are fairly obvious. After Cueto was one of very few bright spots in a 76-86 season, why not retain his awesome pitching and hope they have better luck elsewhere in 2015?

It’s not a bad hope. It’s just that the writing on the wall says it’s a doomed one.

As things stand now, here’s how FanGraphs projects the NL Central:

Yup. There are the Reds. Projected to be in last place.

Honestly, that strikes me as a bit harsh. But there’s also little question the Reds are loaded with question marks. The trades of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon hurt their rotation depth, and Mike Petriello did a good job of summing up the team’s offensive question marks in an ESPN Insider piece:

It didn’t help that Billy Hamilton was the second-worst hitter in baseball in the second half or that Votto was injured or that [Jay] Bruce completely fell apart, and it’s fair to expect that at least one of those three players is going to give a lot more in 2015. But to expect production from all three, and for [Todd] Frazier and [Devin] Mesoraco to sustain their nice years, and for [Brandon] Phillips to stem the steady tide of aging, well, it’s just not realistic, to say nothing of the left field hole and the fact that [Zack] Cozart will never be an acceptable big league hitter.

Relatively speaking, other teams in the NL Central are better off. There are well-balanced teams in St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and the Cubs’ additions of Lester, Jason Hammel and Miguel Montero give them a roster that now has veteran talent to go with a surplus of young talent.

The Reds are looking at a catch-22. If they trade Cueto, they’ll be punting on 2015. But if they don’t make big roster changes before Opening Day, they’re likely punting on 2015 even if they keep him.

So realistically, Cincinnati’s choice boils down to what it can get for Cueto. If he’s retained for 2015, that’ll be a draft pick after he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere next winter. If he’s traded now, it will mean relief from his $10 million salary and a package of young talent.

Payroll relief and a package of young talent are more appealing than a draft pick even without context, but they become even more appealing with it.

If the Oakland A’s could turn Jeff Samardzija’s walk year into four pieces of controllable young talent, you can imagine what the Reds could get for Cueto. Perhaps an MLB-ready super-prospect and additional talent on the side, which would mean big things for the Reds’ life after Cueto.

As told by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the book on Reds owner Bob Castellini is that he’s hyper-competitive with a “win-now personality.” That’s not the kind of owner who’s liable to trade a really good player while he’s still really good, so I won’t take it for granted that Cueto will be traded this winter.

But he should be. It was a good idea for the Reds even before Cueto‘s camp named its extension price, and that just made it an even better idea.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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Dear Santa,

Reds fan here. We haven’t been on the greatest of terms since Clinchmas, now over four years ago. Where have you been since? And what’s with all the coal in our red stockings?

What do you think about when you’re checking your list and you get to the Cincinnati Reds? Clinchmas was amazing, but that team got swept by the Phillies. Then after a deflating 2011 season, you put Mat Latos under the tree, and we witnessed arguably the best Reds team in over a decade.

But it was weird, Santa. Joey Votto suffered then an injury that’s affecting him now, and Johnny Cueto couldn’t come home for the holidays when we needed him most.

Weren’t we good? How could our behavior have been any better?

I got over it when you gave us Shin-Soo Choo the next year. Because it was all about the lead-off man. It was awesome; Choo finished with a .423 OBP that season. The Reds had a .323 OBP for the year, No. 6 in the game. But Cueto got hurt again. We got him back just barely in time to throw him right into a one-game playoff, where he not only got shelled but created a moment that will follow Cueto back to PNC Park in every start he will make there.

You lost me there, Santa. But I sucked it up. Maybe Pittsburgh had just stacked more karma than the Reds. I know not to be envious. But after 2014, I’m struggling to find any Christmas spirit.

You know what happened. No one likes talking about it, but you know it had a lot to do with injuries and the bullpen failure. Most reasonable Reds fans will admit as much, even if the local media won’t.

But baseball doesn’t wait. And since we could no longer afford 2011’s Christmas gift, we had to trade him away, along with another starter. And now what do we do? How does a team built on its rotation, the third-best rotation in baseball, have any success without its No. 2?

C’mon, Santa. It’s all tidings and good cheer until it’s time to sit down at the arbitration table, isn’t it?

Will you please bring us something for the back of the rotation? I know the Reds have tons of minor league talent nearing ready, but there’s no reason to rush them. Aaron Harang is out there. He threw over 200 innings and cashed in a 3.75 ERA. And he only made $1 million last year. Not asking for much.

Then there’s our bullpen, which you know was naughty. To be second in bullpen losses and have the third-worst bullpen ERA is to replace your eye drops with lemon juice. I know we were bad, so can you help us be better and maybe bring us another bullpen arm? If Raisel Iglesias is all, I won’t be mad, but a middle-relief guy would be decent, and if nothing else, maybe let Sean Marshall stay healthy?

Speaking of health, can you bring two bubbles? One for Votto and one for Homer Bailey? You understand.

This last request will come as no surprise, Santa. And you already know what I’m going to ask. It’s been years since we had a good left fielder to watch on an everyday basis. Instead of bringing us some cheap knock-off, better-as-a-pinch-hitter brand, can you just get us Nori Aoki?

I don’t care about all the talk surrounding his declining power numbers, or how he hit just one home run last year. Who cares? His OBP was .349 and .353 for his career.

This is serious, Santa. Honestly, it would be cool if you got me everything else, but this is like the Nintendo 64 when it was new. You could get me all the cool stuff in the world, but without the 64 centerpiece, Christmas is ruined.

CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman says Aoki is going to get anywhere from $7 to $8 million. Is that in the budget this year?

That’s all I got, big man. I want a back-of-the-rotation veteran starter, I want a middle-relief bullpen arm and I want a left fielder. And if it’s not too much, I’d like to be able to enjoy the 2015 Reds product, not its understudies.

And don’t give me any excuses this year. You can travel around the world in a single night, you can force yourself down chimneys, even in houses that don’t have one, and you fly reindeer. That’s great and all, but wake me up when Aoki is under my tree.

Stats courtesy of ESPN.com/MLB

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Johnny Cueto has reportedly provided a deadline for the Cincinnati Reds to discuss a contract extension.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman spoke to Cueto‘s agent, Bryce Dixon, who said that his client won’t consider signing a new deal in the middle of the 2015 MLB season.   

“He’ll give it until Opening Day,” Dixon said of Cueto. “Then he’s going to be focused on the season and trying to do what he can for Cincinnati. If something happens, we’re probably to keep it to this offseason. We’re not going to be looking to do something this summer.”

On Dec. 10, Cincinnati.com’s C. Trent Rosecrans wrote that both sides are hopeful of getting an extension signed but that it won’t come cheaply:

Jocketty said representatives from the team had talks with Cueto‘s agent, Bryce Dixon, on Tuesday, but he was not involved. That’s a sign that any extension talks are in their infancy, at best.

While the Reds are looking to move payroll from this year’s team, Jocketty has expressed an interest in extending Cueto. Cueto has also said he’d be open to an extension this offseason and is happy in Cincinnati, but it’s unlikely he’d take much of a “hometown discount” — especially since his hometown is in the Dominican Republic.

Back in October, Cincinnati picked up Cueto‘s option for 2015, meaning he’ll get $10 million this year and become a free agent next offseason.

According to Heyman, the 28-year-old will use Jon Lester and Max Scherzer free-agent deals this winter as barometers for his next contract. Lester signed for six years and $155 million with the Chicago Cubs earlier in the month, while Scherzer remains a free agent.

There’s no doubt that Cueto has positioned himself to receive a hefty payday, whether it’s with the Reds or another team. He’s posted a sub-3.00 earned run average in each of the last four seasons (though he only appeared in 11 games in 2013), which is no small feat since he calls Great American Ballpark home.

Cueto finished second in the NL Cy Young voting this past season after going 20-9 with a 2.25 ERA. He led the NL in strikeouts (242), whiffing 8.9 batters ever nine innings.

The only potential issue for Cincinnati is paying Cueto a large chunk of money when the franchise already has two major investments on the books. Joey Votto still has nine years left on his 10-year, $225 million deal, while Homer Bailey is in the second year of a six-year, $105 million contract (h/t Spotrac.com).

If the Reds want to extend Cueto, they’ll almost certainly have to shed some more payroll.

In the event they fail to sign him before Opening Day, you can bet that Cueto will be a name hotly discussed in potential trades right up until the deadline.

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With an array of talented pitchers eligible for free agency next season, the Cincinnati Reds—unlikely to re-sign them all—are a logical trade partner for teams looking to improve their staff.     

Unsurprisingly, Johnny Cueto, the man at the top of Cincy’s rotation, is the most desirable. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has the newest rumor: 

GM Walt Jocketty commented on a potential trade of Cueto, and teammate Aroldis Chapman via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer:

Even Reds manager Bryan Price, via the Boston Herald‘s Scott Lauber, has hinted that re-signing all four of Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon will be an unattainable goal:

We’re not in that environment where we can pay (all four pitchers) the terms of the contract that they’ve earned through their performance. There’s other teams that have more ability to take on that type of a financial commitment, and we also have other parts of our team that we have to improve. And maybe we have to look at some of those pieces in our rotation to get us other pieces for 2015 and beyond.

In other words, before they lose some of these valuable pieces for nothing in a year, they need to find a way to flip them for future assets. 

As CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder and Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi noted, Cueto will undoubtedly return the biggest haul of those assets:

Over the last several years, there have been very few pitchers better than Cueto, who finished 2014 second in NL Cy Young Award voting behind Clayton Kershaw. Leading the NL in innings pitched (243.2) and strikeouts (242), he compiled a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He had a career high in strikeouts per nine innings (8.94) and finished fourth in the majors in ERA+ (160), per Baseball-Reference.com. 

Giving up prospects for any player who could potentially dart after just one season is an obvious risk, but Cueto, 28, is one of the best starters in the business. For teams that miss out on Jon Lester, he is an obvious target. 

Conversely, if general manager Walt Jocketty lets go of the team’s star ace, it’ll be a strong sign that the fire sale has officially begun in Cincinnati. 

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The Cincinnati Reds are entering the break as one of the hottest teams in baseball and have several deserving All-Star candidates. Cincinnati has gone 20-10 over their past 30 games, improving their record to 43-39.  

The cast representing the Reds at the 2014 All-Star Game will have a different look this season. Cincinnati’s usual suspect of Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto will all likely be watching the game at home. 

Only one of the Reds’ five candidates on this list has appeared in an All-Star Game. While it is unlikely that all five of these players make it, each player has made a strong case to be included.

These players are ranked from the least likely to make it to guaranteed. Johnny Cueto is a mortal lock, but Devin Mesoraco and the others are on the bubble and could fall either way. 

Here are the Reds’ top five All-Star Game candidates.

Begin Slideshow

The Cincinnati Reds should trade Johnny Cueto. There, I said it. It’s like taking a Band-Aid off. Do it quickly, and it doesn’t sting as much.

So the Reds should trade Cueto, right? They’re three games under .500, 7.5 games back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers and 2.5 games back of the much better St. Louis Cardinals, who sit in second place in the NL Central.

Both of these teams (the Cardinals more so than the Brewers) are better set up for success than the Reds. Among NL teams, the Reds rank in the bottom third in runs scored, hits, home runs, RBI, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+ and total bases.

In addition to the anemic offense, the Reds have a less-than-ideal situation coming down the pipe in which they’ll have three starting pitchers—Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake—all due for contract extensions following the 2015 season.

Beyond their concerns for the 2014 season, though, the Reds’ farm system drops off significantly after the organizational top five. What they do have, however, is a plethora of pitching prospects who could help to fill the void left by the decision to trade one or more of the team’s arms up for extensions in 2015.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports believes the Reds will at the very least entertain offers on the three pitchers mentioned above, as well as on closer Aroldis Chapman.

There’s no doubt that Cueto would provide the team with the best return value, so let’s take a look at why they should trade him and what some potential return packages could look like.

The Offense Needs Upgrading

So the offense is fatally flawed, right?

Need more convincing than what I gave you earlier? Consider the performances put forth by starting position players not named Joey Votto, Ryan Ludwick, Devin Mesoraco or Todd Frazier, as they’re the only ones producing to this point.

The offense has been horrifyingly incompetent. The light-hitting Billy Hamilton hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s right around some of the early projections for his 2014 season.

The most troubling things, which you may have already noticed, arise when you compare his stats—remember, this is a player who hit a total of 13 home runs over 502 minor league games—to those of some of the players who were expected to truly help carry the offense.

Jay Bruce, a perennial 30-35 home run threat, owns a .320 slugging percentage through his first 36 games. Part of this may be due to the meniscus injury he suffered—he just recently returned from that surgery—but it’s certainly worth noting that he’s being outslugged by Hamilton.

Zack Cozart has pulled his regularly scheduled disappearing act for the third straight season now, and with no viable replacements coming through the system—the closest thing the team had to that, Tanner Rahier, has already been moved to third base—it may be a good time to look at upgrading the position by adding either a top-tier prospect or a current big league player.

Team-Friendly Contract Status

Take a quick look at some of the pitchers dealt during the year over the last four seasons, and you’ll notice some major differences between Cueto and the pitchers listed above.

The first thing is that most of these pitchers—excluding Dan Haren and Doug Fister—had at maximum one year left on their current contracts. Fister and Haren are the only two exceptions to that trend. Haren had two seasons left on his deal, plus a club option for a third year, while Fister was still under club control with arbitration-eligible seasons in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

Cueto‘s deal is similar to that of Jake Peavy’s. Peavy joined the Red Sox just after the midway point of the 2013 season and had another year (2014) on his current deal, plus a player option for 2015. Peavy’s player option has some stipulations set in place regarding his innings total, so it’s still unclear as to whether or not that option will actually materialize.

Even so, Peavy was owed $14.5 million for the 2013 and 2014 seasons, and his 2015 player option is worth a whopping $15 million.

Cueto, however, is owed just $10 million this season, and his club option next season clocks in at the same amount. Even if a team was looking to cut ties with him at the commencement of the 2014 season—highly unlikely—the acquiring team would be out just $800,000.

Sky-High Value

Johnny Cueto‘s value is never going to be higher than it is at this very moment. 

Take a look at current MLB pitchers ranking in the top five in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and WAR for the 2014 season:

Cueto ranks first in every category except for strikeouts and at this juncture is arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. In addition to that, he has a more established track record for success than a lot of the pitchers in these rankings, including the likes of Julio Teheran, Masahiro Tanaka, Dallas Keuchel and Jason Hammel.

Among the seven other pitchers who have longer and more effective careers, Cueto has arguably the best contract situation of any of them, as he’s owed just $10 million for next year’s club option. In fact, among those seven, Cueto ranks in a tie with Yu Darvish for the lowest salary owed in 2015.

Cueto is functioning as the best pitcher in baseball right now, and it isn’t very often that this type of pitcher becomes available, much less with a year left on his contract.

The Awesome Return Package

The Reds’ farm system isn’t that deep. A quick look through Baseball America‘s prospect handbook for the 2014 season will show that only five players grade out at 55 or higher their 40-80 scale.

One of those players is Billy Hamilton, and he’s already graduated to the big league level. Another, Robert Stephenson, is a starting pitcher, but that part of the system is hardly an area of concern.

The other three players, Phillip Ervin, Jesse Winker and Yorman Rodriguez, are outfielders. Ervin is a somewhat stocky outfielder who figures to lose a step as he matures—you can likely rule out center field. Winker is a solid hitter but will likely slot in as a left fielder with average power at best.

Yorman Rodriguez has a shot to be a great regular in the outfield as well, but he carries an extreme level of risk and, given the continuation of his sky-high strikeout rate this season at Double-A Pensacola, there’s a strong possibility he could flop or turn into a fourth outfielder a la Chris Heisey.

In addition to the names above, The club has a number of pitching prospects making waves this season—Michael Lorenzen, Nick Travieso and Ismael Guillon—all of whom figure to be ready for either mid-2015 or at the start of the 2016 season.

Aside from Robert Stephenson, there are no can’t-miss impact players in the Reds’ system. In short, there’s a lot of room to upgrade.

Trading Cueto could net the Reds two elite prospects and possibly a third mid-level one to boot. 

Consider the teams who are at or near the the top of their respective divisions, who also need help in the starting rotation in order to either get them over the hump or help secure their division leads:

The Dodgers are also a team with immense minor league depth, and although they possess, by the numbers, one of the better starting rotations in baseball, they find themselves 7.5 games back of the NL West-leading San Francisco Giants, putting them in prime position to deal for some additional help in the starting rotation.

That’s a good crop of seven teams who could use some help in the starting rotation.

Of the teams in the list above, the Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees and Rockies find themselves in the best all-around position to make a deal. From that group, the Red Sox, Rangers and Rockies are in an even greater position in relation to their ability to provide the Reds with a sufficient package of prospects.

Here are some possible trade packages the Reds could expect to receive in dealing Cueto to any of the teams listed above:

The return packages from the Rockies, Rangers and Red Sox would be the best of the group, and each of the proposed trade packages would give the Reds some valuable pieces, including middle infielders—particularly shortstops—and an outfielder who could lock down left field with the departure of Ludwick following the 2014 season.

The Rockies package would give the Reds a little bit of everything.

The team possesses two elite pitching prospects in Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler, the latter coming to Cincinnati. Butler would give the Reds a second starting pitcher prospect with ace-like potential, and given his recent development trend along with his performance this season at Double-A Tulsa, he could be ready for big league action as soon as mid-2014.

In addition to Butler, outfielder David Dahl and shortstop Trevor Story would also find their way to Cincinnati. Dahl has five-tool potential and provides decent pop at the plate, outstanding defense and potential for middle-of-the-order success.

Story is a bit more of a wild card, and while he projects to be a solid big league shortstop at maturity, there are some legitimate concerns surrounding his plate discipline and pitch recognition skills after posting strikeout rates of 22 percent and 33 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Any of the trades listed above would suffice, however, and would net the Reds at least two top-tier prospects, and in some cases a third mid-to-low-tier prospect.

Wrap-Up

The Reds are likely to trade at least one arm this summer.

Once Latos returns, the team will possess six starters for five spots. While the team could easily return Alfredo Simon to the bullpen in an effort to shore up what has been a rather disappointing unit this season, they could just as easily perhaps trade one of those starters and upgrade their farm system.

While it would be easy to say that the Reds should skip the formalities and go right after the power-hitting outfielder they most desperately need, one should remember that the teams looking at Cueto this summer aren’t going to be in the market to give up an outfielder with power oozing out of his ears.

Cueto‘s departure would likely spell the end of the Reds’ season, which might sting fans a little bit. However, the offense is not set up for long-term success, and neither is the farm system.

By cutting their losses this year, the Reds could potentially retool for another run next season and be truly ready to compete in 2016.

All stats are current through June 2, 2014 and are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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After seven long weeks atop the Reds player power rankings, Johnny Cueto was officially lifted from the throne following a disastrous outing against the Washington Nationals. It was an odd sequence of events; the first two runs to cross the plate were unearned. By that time, Cueto had already been laboring, working nearly every full.

But on a night when the Reds’ ace was less than perfect, the defense behind him was less than adequate, making for a beating at the hands of the Nationals and a new No. 1 in this week’s power rankings.

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Pitching has been the strength of the Cincinnati Reds the past few seasons, and stability in the rotation is the reason that the club is going to continue to contend.

Cincinnati’s rotation finished near the top of the majors in most of the major categories. Despite pitching in Great American Ball Park, the staff has found a way to get the job done.

There isn’t much to guess about when it comes to what the Reds rotation will look like in 2014. 

Whether or not the club was going to bring back Bronson Arroyo was the only question about the rotation heading into the offseason. It looks like the organization has made its decision, so keep reading to see what that decision is.

Starting pitching can win a championship, so let’s see who will be a part of the Cincinnati rotation in the upcoming season.

*All stats are via MLB.com.

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The pieces are all in place for the National League Wild Card Game. The teams, the venue and the pitching matchup have been decided.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds were locked in as the Senior Circuit’s two wild-card clubs the moment the St. Louis Cardinals clinched the NL Central with a win over the Chicago Cubs on Friday night.

And after using a six-home run barrage to notch a second straight win against the Reds on Saturday afternoon, the Pirates earned the right to host the play-in game on Tuesday.

As Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported, on the mound for the Pirates is going to be Francisco Liriano. John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, meanwhile, reported on Saturday that Reds manager Dusty Baker has settled on Johnny Cueto as his starter.

After taking a look at a few numbers, I can say the following: Tuesday’s game should be a good one. There are things working in favor of both pitchers and both teams.

Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first. Cueto has gotten the nod for the start, but is he ready for it? He has, after all, been battling shoulder injuries for much of 2013 and has only made two starts since being activated off the disabled list.

The two starts Cueto’s made are a bit of a mixed bag. He only allowed one earned run in 12 innings, sure, but he did so against the Houston Astros and New York Mets and wasn’t totally overpowering. He collected only 10 strikeouts to four walks, with one home run allowed.

But while I hesitate to say “He’s back!,” based on his performances against the Astros and Mets, it is encouraging that Cueto’s arm appears to be at full strength or near enough to it. Per Brooks Baseball, here’s how his fastball velocity in his last two starts compare to what he had in 2012.

There’s a small velocity gap between what Cueto had in 2012 and what he’s had in his last two starts, but that it’s only a small gap is the good news. It’s not as if Cueto is missing three, two or even one mile per hour off the velocity he had last year.

So despite the fact Cueto doesn’t have as many appearances under his belt as Liriano, I’d say we’re looking at a fair fight. That’s our go-ahead to dig a little deeper into a variety of super-interesting statistical stuffitude. 

You’ve probably heard it mentioned that Liriano has had a tendency to own at PNC Park. And this is very much true, as he has a 1.47 ERA at Pittsburgh’s home park in 2013, holding hitters to a .474 OPS.

But hey, Cueto’s been in his element at PNC Park, too. He has a 1.90 ERA in 13 starts in his career at PNC Park and has held hitters to a .544 OPS there. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Cueto doesn’t have a lower ERA at any other park in which he’s made at least three starts.

And since he’s not the one who’s pitching in the NL Central for the first time in 2013, Cueto is, obviously, more experienced pitching against the Pirates than Liriano is pitching against the Reds. Cueto owns a 2.37 ERA in 21 career starts against the Pirates, which looks better than the 3.70 ERA Liriano has in four starts against the Reds this season.

But since Cueto has racked up his impressive career ERA over several seasons against several different versions of the Pirates, let’s narrow our focus a bit and see how he’s done against the players he’s likely to come up against on Tuesday.

The following numbers are courtesy of ESPN.com:

It must be a welcome sight for Reds fans that Cueto has handled Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker so well, as Alvarez has killed the Reds the last two days and Walker blasted two homers in Saturday’s game. He’s also handled Clint Barmes, Russell Martin and Starling Marte well, albeit in a limited number of head-to-head matchups.

Cueto will have to be careful with Andrew McCutchen and Marlon Byrd, but one wonders if he’ll have to worry about facing Garrett Jones.

Justin Morneau has played first base on an everyday basis since coming over from Minnesota, while Jones has been left to waste away on the bench in the meantime. He has only four hits in his last 31 at-bats, so Clint Hurdle might be sticking with Morneau on Tuesday.

If so, Cueto will be facing a lineup with only two hitters who have hurt him in the past in it. How about Liriano?

With numbers once again courtesy of ESPN.com, here’s a look:

There’s not a whole lot of history here, but it does bode well for Liriano that he’s handled Shin-Soo Choo well in their head-to-head matchups, which, of course, date back to when they were both playing in the AL Central.

It also bodes well that he’s handled Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, as they’re the ones who do the bulk of the heavy lifting in Baker’s batting order. And since Choo, Bruce and Votto are lefty hitters, Liriano could be shutting them down again on Tuesday.

As for the three who have pummeled Liriano—Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco—it’s likely that Liriano will only have to deal with two of them in Tuesday’s game. Ryan Hanigan has been the starting catcher in 10 of Cueto’s 11 starts this season and also caught 32 of Cueto’s 33 starts in 2012. He’ll probably be out there to catch him once again.

So what we have here is a push. In all likelihood, both Cueto and Liriano are going to be facing lineups that contain only two hitters who have hurt them in past matchups. And in the case of the Reds against Liriano, the numbers against him aren’t entirely indicative of how the team has fared against lefty starters this season.

On the contrary, the Reds have actually done quite well against southpaws this season. Here’s some data from Baseball-Reference.com:

The Reds have been slightly less effective against southpaw starters, but only slightly. That .711 OPS they have isn’t low relative to other teams either. Per Baseball-Reference.com, the Reds rank about in the middle of the pack in MLB in OPS against lefty starters.

As for the Pirates, I’ll note that they only had a .698 OPS against righty starters heading into Saturday’s game. Things aren’t so bad after hitting five home runs against Bronson Arroyo on Saturday, but there’s still quite a difference between their performances against lefty starters and righty starters.

The Pirates have done considerably worse this season against right-handed starters than they have against left-handed starters. It’s also relevant to our discussion that they’ve done worse against righty starters than the Reds have against lefty starters.

It’s not much, but that will do for a point in favor of the Reds. From here, let’s take pitching styles under consideration, shall we?

Liriano and Cueto are two different pitchers. With a strikeout rate in the neighborhood of 25 percent, Liriano is more of a power pitcher.

Cueto, on the other hand, is more of an average strikeout pitcher. What he’s better at is racking up ground balls, as FanGraphs has his ground-ball percentages over the last three seasons right around 50 percent. That’s easily above-average territory.

While the site’s stats for ground balls differ slightly from those of FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference.com does track how teams do against certain types of pitchers. That means we can compare how the Reds have done against power pitchers this season to how the Pirates have done against ground-ball pitchers.

So let’s do so:

It’s a small advantage, granted, but the Reds have done better against power pitchers than the Pirates have done against ground-ball pitchers. That’ll do for another point in favor of the Reds.

There’s one last place we can look for a potential advantage, and that’s in how Liriano and Cueto tend to go after hitters. To this end, there’s something that they have in common.

Liriano doesn’t have a tendency to throw pitch after pitch in the strike zone. According to Baseball Info Solutions data by way of FanGraphs, Liriano actually ranks second to last among qualified starting pitchers in Zone%, that being the percentage of pitches he throws inside the strike zone.

However, Cueto doesn’t live in the strike zone either. Both he and Liriano are pitchers who rely on getting hitters to expand the strike zone a bit more than the average starting pitcher, as the following table can show:

Note: We’re looking at Cueto’s numbers spanning 2012 and 2013 because his 2013 numbers alone represent too small a sample size.

Since both Liriano and Cueto both require hitters to be undisciplined to a certain degree, logic says that the team facing the more disciplined lineup on Tuesday will be in for a challenge. 

To this end, the numbers say that Cueto has the better matchup. With another assist from FanGraphs:

It’s close, but Reds hitters have had a tendency to take fewer swings outside the strike zone. The gap is less small in the number of swings these two clubs have taken inside the strike zone, as the Reds have been more prolific in doing so.

It’s absolutely worth noting that Liriano knows about Cincinnati’s relative discipline from experience. He walked seven in 12.1 innings in his last two starts against the Reds. One of those was an excellent eight-inning performance in which he got away with some wildness. The other saw him leave after only logging 4.1 innings.

If you’re a Pirates fan, you should still be optimistic about your team’s chances of advancing to the National League Division Series. The Buccos will be going into the game with some momentum, and they’ll have both the home field and a guy on the mound who has dominated on that home field. If the Reds aren’t on their game, he could do so again.

But based on what we’ve looked at, Reds fans can be optimistic, too. Cueto’s arm appears to be in solid shape. He has a good track record against the Pirates and at PNC Park, and he owns quality career numbers against some of Pittsburgh’s top hitters. Also, the Pirates would appear to be less cut out for a matchup against him than the Reds are for a matchup against Liriano.

So basically…who’s ready for a good baseball game?

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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