According to government data, the average American male stands 5’9” tall. The average MLB pitcher is considerably taller, at over 6’2“.
Yet, as with many things, there are notable exceptions to the rule. Some of MLB’s top starters and closers this season are not much taller than the rest of us average American males.
Turn the page for five of 2012’s best pitchers who are listed at 5’11” or shorter.
At the time of this writing the Reds are nine games out of first place, pending what the Milwaukee Brewers do later. They have just lost the series to the upstart Chicago Cubs and try (I hope) to avoid a sweep tomorrow afternoon.
When your ace blows up you know it is not your day. That is what happened today to Johnny Cueto. After looking like one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, he was shelled for seven hits and five earned runs in less than four innings.
The Cubs who are on a seven-game win streak looked anything but doormats for the rest of the NL Central Division. Carlos Zambrano, (9-6) picked up the win and belted a home run in the 11-4 trouncing of the defending Divisional Champions.
The only bright spot I saw in the game was the continued hot heating of Yonder Alonso who hit his first MLB dinger today, becoming the 17th Reds player to hit their inaugural home run in Wrigley Field.
As for Alonso, if anybody was ever made to be a designated hitter it is he. He absolutely looked pitiful in left field today, but the entire team looked like a comedy of errors. Todd Frazier, Edgar Renteria and Alonso all made errors in what certainly looked like a team just finishing out the year.
All-Star second baseman Brandon Phillips left the game in the fourth inning after spraining his right ankle in a collision with outfielder Drew Stubbs.
The S.O.S. Stubbs continued to disappoint striking out twice, and looking nothing like the defensive player he is.
The game smelled like September, with so many different players at positions they are not normally seen. Miguel Cairo had to spell Phillips, Frazier played third, and Alonso was in left field.
It is hard to imagine how this team could possibly bounce back and become a factor in the division. Even if they became white hot, they would have to depend upon the Brew Crew to grow tired of winning in order to climb the latter.
They have just lost a series to both teams lower in the standings than themselves. That will not get the job done. It would be hard to imagine that Dusty Baker and GM, Walt Jocketty aren’t having some back office meetings.
There is so much wrong that it becomes difficult to see where the malignancy actually started. Guys are having problems pitching, guys can’t hit and strikeout in crucial situations, and now the injury bug is starting to creep in.
With so much wrong on a team widely seen as very talented, the trigger could be pulled at the top, with Baker looking for a new gig or sliding back into the booth at ESPN. I haven’t heard any winds but the timing would be right.
You may feel free to continue in hopeful bliss, but this writer has seen enough to call it a year. I think it is time for a fire sale. The Reds should start playing people they expect to start in 2012, seeing what deals can be made with dead weight players like Coco Cordero and Edinson Volquez.
They should throw Aroldis Chapman into the deep end of the pool. If he swims, praise the Lord. If he doesn’t then he becomes fodder for the trade mill. Either let him start games now or mold him into a closer. Middle relief is where pitchers go to die.
There is always next year, but hey let us at least see what we have on the farm. Is something wrong that Billy Hamilton can’t be promoted? He is playing a tad over high school ball in Dayton. Low Single A, come on, if he is an untouchable start implementing him into the system.
It is time for all of us to cinch up the old apple sacks and face reality. It’s over.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Since making his MLB debut in 2007, Cincinnati Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan has without a doubt been a valuable asset to the Reds organization.
As both a backup catcher and a spot starter, Hanigan has proven himself to be a clutch hitter and a solid defender behind the plate.
Many baseball fans, including me, expected to see Hanigan earn more of a full-time role with the Reds once the recent trade deadline had passed, but Cincinnati elected to hold on to veteran Ramon Hernandez and keep Hanigan in his usual on-again, off-again role.
One has to wonder, with Hernandez playing at a high level and with two hot minor league catching prospects in Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal itching to make their way up to the majors, where exactly Hanigan fits in Cincinnati’s plans for the future.
Hernandez is 35 years old and projected to become a free agent at the season’s end, but the Reds didn’t trade him when given a chance to at the deadline, and that could mean that they intend to bring him back in 2012. After all, there are several Cincinnati pitchers, including emerging star Johnny Cueto, who prefer to pitch to Hernandez due to their familiarity with his catching style.
Whatever the Reds decide to do with Hanigan down the line, there’s no question that he will still have a future in the league. Catchers (even backups) are remarkably valuable in the MLB, and while he’s not a superstar by any means, Hanigan has shown year after year that he can hold down home plate with the best of them.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Recent news surrounding the status of Johnny Cueto, as it pertains to his inflamed shoulder, has Reds fans a bit concerned.
It was announced that Cueto will take 7-10 days off before he resumes throwing again. That will keep him Arizona-bound when the rest of the team breaks camp to head off to Cincinnati for opening day.
The diminutive righty, a target of respected publications such as Baseball Prospectus, ends their bio about Cueto with the following:
“The Dominican managed his first season free of arm problems, but his build doesn’t inspire the greatest confidence in a pain free future.”
Cueto grew up admiring the legendary Pedro Martinez, and upon being drafted, some scouts compared him to his idol.
Though he has yet to get anywhere close to that stratosphere, Cueto has turned into a rock solid No. 2 starter for the Reds. He hasn’t been great, but his youth and talent inspire confidence that we, perhaps, have yet to see the best Cueto has to offer.
Those plans are on the temporary backburner, as right now the biggest thing that Cueto has in common with Martinez is the same propensity for injuries.
Last year was Cueto’s sole season where he enjoyed complete health.
Until he returns, which sounds like it could be soon, the Reds should be fine. A rotation of Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Travis Wood, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey is still long on talent and depth.
In my opinion, this is why you don’t trade the young pitching. Every so often, there is talk about them moving a Homer Bailey, or another one of the young pitchers, but in my opinion, you can NEVER have enough pitching depth.
The moment you think you do, could become the moment you suddenly don’t.
This whole situation is hardly enough reason to pull the fire alarm, but in a banner 2010 season which featured remarkable health, lets hope that this isn’t the first sign of things to come.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Let me make something clear from the jump: I like Dusty Baker.
I like the way he jiggles toothpicks between his teeth, popping them around anxiously as he stares at his lineup card and contemplates a double switch. I like the way he tells it like it is to reporters, avoiding the tired manager clichés and speaking from his gut.
And, I like the way that when the game is on the line, he becomes as big a fan as the rest of us, slapping his hands together after a crucial strikeout and pumping his brittle, 62-year-old fists in the air when his closer slams the door.
More importantly, however, Dusty has brought success to Cincinnati, something very few managers in recent memory have done.
Since joining the Reds in 2008, Baker made modest strides his first two seasons, only to guide his 2010 squad to a National League Central title, the Reds’ first playoff berth in 15 years.
While many will point to the emergence of young pitching talent and the MVP season of Joey Votto, the Reds’ triumphant 2010 campaign can just as easily be traced back to Baker.
When he isn’t fly fishing in Colorado, spinning yarns from his playing days or traveling to Cuba to sample jazz records, Baker has been the consummate player’s coach. He stands behind his men at every juncture, and (at least in 2010) puts them in the best position to succeed.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit that when Baker signed on, his ghosts from Chicago worried me. Known to be partial to crotchety veterans, wary of youth and a Grim Reaper to young power arms (see: Wood, Kerry and Prior, Mark), Baker’s arrival in Cincinnati was met roundly by fan trepidation.
After all, Reds followers had endured years of teams led by the likes of the Rich Aurilias and Jason Larues of the world. In a transition filled with anticipation and hope, the last thing fans wanted was to witness a guy continuously ignore young talent while sending top pitching prospects Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto to the operating table.
To be fair, though, Baker set out immediately to disprove his national reputation. While starting the 2008 season with Scott Hatteberg at first, Baker soon embraced the promise of a young Votto, steadily upping his playing time until he unseated the incumbent first basemen for good.
Baker also deserves a portion of the credit for turning Edinson Volquez, fresh off the plane from the Texas Rangers and saddled with mixed scouting reports, into a 17-game winner and an All-Star his first year with the Reds.
More recently, Baker allowed himself the foresight to let rookie Mike Leake crack the Reds’ 2010 Opening Day roster. Leake quickly became the stalwart of the Reds rotation in the first half.
Yes, in Baker’s three seasons in Cincy, he’s come a long way, not only in cleansing his national reputation, but also in earning the trust and admiration of many Reds fans. However, when Baker named Edinson Volquez his Opening Day starter on Tuesday (barely a week into Spring Training), he took a step backward.
Some will support Baker’s announcement, citing Volquez’ 2008 totals and arguing he is the only Reds starter with true “number one stuff.” Others will blast Baker for the move, as he surely has two more deserving starters in Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.
A third contingent will look at Baker’s decision and wonder if it wasn’t just a classic case of Baker over-analyzing his way into another stumble-bum move.
Now, before we consider Baker’s reasons for basically designating Volquez the ace, let’s take stock of the options he had to choose from. In one corner, we have Arroyo, a five-year Red and fresh off of two straight seasons of at least 15 wins (17 in 2010) and a sub-4.00 ERA.
In the opposite corner we have Cueto, still only 24, but who has increased his win total in each of the past three years and has been as reliable a starter as the Reds have had in that time frame. Both Arroyo and Cueto were recently awarded lucrative contract extensions, and both are assured spots in Cincinnati’s 2011 rotation.
Then we have Volquez. Proud owner of eight total wins over the last two years, Volquez spent the 2010 season adding insult to injury, as he was suspended for testing positive for an illegal drug. Volquez’ insistence that what the tests showed were female fertility drugs did little to mitigate his case in the eyes of MLB officials or Reds fans.
Conveniently, Volquez was able to serve out his suspension as he rehabbed from “Tommy John” ligament surgery, but between his injury-marred 2009 and his rehab/lady-pill-stunted 2010, Volquez saw very little of the field.
Yet, despite some very obvious signs pointing in several equally-logical directions, Baker chose the road less expected. When naming Volquez as his ‘numero uno’ to start the season, Baker attempted to explain his rationale.
First, he contended, Arroyo didn’t necessarily want the start. Okay. I suppose I can swallow that. Arroyo has long been known to despise pitching in day games (Opening Day’s first pitch is at 2:10 p.m.), preferring instead to spend his afternoons wearing sunglasses and nursing hangovers.
Fair enough.
Next, Baker said he wanted to split up his hard-throwers with a soft-tosser. Again, I am okay with Arroyo going in the two-spot if he prefers it, but that doesn’t mean I’m buying the whole “rotating the rotation” argument.
Last time I checked, the Phillies weren’t worried about pitching the hard-throwing Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee back-to-back, and I’m pretty sure the Giants are fine with their one-two studly punch of Lincecum and Cain.
Yet, let’s say for the sake of argument that Dusty’s second reason held up: It’s still not cause to send Volquez out before Cueto.
Baker went on to address Cueto in his next point. When asked why Cueto wasn’t getting the nod, Baker drew on his extensive psychological acumen, explaining that Cueto had just signed a three-year contract, and was “already under enough pressure” to perform.
Now, I may not be the MOST astute observer in the world, but to me that statement begs a couple of rudimentary questions. First, what exactly are “we” paying Cueto for, if not to step his game up a level and perform well under increased scrutiny?
If, instead of signing Cueto, the Reds went out and purchased some other young fire-baller in his prime, wouldn’t the new guy in town be expected to perform at a level commensurate with his paycheck? Why should Cueto be any different?
Also, if we want to talk about pressure, we shouldn’t forget the weight Volquez carries on his shoulders after being traded for all-world star Josh Hamilton, performing prodigiously in his first Reds season, only to crash suddenly back to Earth.
Volquez has been viewed as the Reds ace-in-waiting since the Hamilton trade (unless you count Homer Bailey—but let’s face it, who really counts Homer Bailey anymore?) and since the end of the ’08 season, has done nothing but disappoint. If anything, it seems that Volquez is the one that should be babied back to prominence, not Cueto.
Finally, Baker cited Volquez’ mental toughness, saying that even in a situation as daunting as Opening Day, nothing seems to rattle his pitcher.
I beg to differ.
One needn’t mine through the annals of baseball history to find the last time Volquez wilted under pressure. In fact, in Volquez’ most recent start (the 2010 NLDS opener at the Phillies…arguably the biggest game of his career), the National Anthem barely ended before Philly had posted four earned runs on the Reds’ overmatched starter.
Volquez labored through 1.2 innings, looking so confused that no one would be surprised if he STILL was having trouble finding the strike zone. It was that bad.
Clearly Baker isn’t remembering that game. Or, if he’s anything like the rest of Reds nation, maybe he’s still trying to do his best to forget. Either way, to (essentially) imply that Volquez is the Reds’ biggest gamer is just absurd.
It doesn’t take a sabermatrician to see that Volquez folded like a moldy card table in that loss to the Phillies; a victim of hype, nerves and quite possibly a still-weakened throwing arm.
As we sit here today, it is entirely possible that many of Baker’s reasons for crowning Volquez his ace are legit. After all, it’s been widely reported that Bronson Arroyo prefers the middle of the rotation, and who knows, maybe sandwiching Arroyo’s looping curve between the heater/slider combo of Cueto and Volquez will be enough to puzzle the Brewers on Opening Weekend.
However, there’s nothing to suggest that Cueto shouldn’t get the start over Volquez. As much as Cueto earned his three-year deal, he’s earned the respect owed to a future potential ace. And, more importantly, as much as Cueto has been the picture of progress in his three years in the majors, Volquez remains a mystery.
Baker’s last point was that Volquez was honored by the opportunity; that he would relish the chance to prove himself. So, are we supposed to believe that, if asked to cap his big offseason with an Opening Day start and the chance to be the club’s ace, Cueto would say no?
Please.
Come on, Dusty, you’re better than that.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
By mid-February, most of us are securely wrapped in our winter cocoons. A multitude of wool coats clutter our closets, nights are spent wrapped in Snuggies (don’t hate) and the thought of getting up in the morning is like an icicle to the nads.
Then, just as we’re ready to give hibernation a shot (show me someone who says hibernation doesn’t sound awesome and I’ll show you a stone-cold liar), we’re reminded of the golden age of summer by one simple phrase: pitchers and catchers report.
When baseball fans hear those four words, it’s as if some bizarre baseball dog whistle pierces through the frigid still of the season, calling us to action. It’s as if a bat signal is lit in the night sky, gleaming triumphantly and reminding us the time has come. Baseball fanatics begin to cling to their Internet feeds, hungry for any nugget of intel from the Promised Lands down South.
Yep, every year, as the temperature slowly climbs and daylight invades our evening commute, America’s pastime begins to pervade our consciousness. For baseball fans, February is the beginning.
And, of course, for Reds fans it’s no different.
This winter, the talk in Cincinnati has been about sustaining a winner. Can they? Will they? What will stand in the way? With most of the roster returning, the Reds have only a select few question marks (the fourth and fifth starters will be selected from three candidates, the last bullpen and bench spots are up for grabs) and those issues have been discussed at length already.
However, while Cincinnati may not see much roster upheaval, their success in 2011 most certainly will depend on the continued development of several key youngsters, and a few new additions. So, to celebrate the pilgrimage of the Reds hurlers to Arizona, here are five pitchers (not named Chapman) whose progress should be monitored closely as Spring Training gets underway.
The Cincinnati Reds continued a solid offseason today, avoiding arbitration with pitcher Johnny Cueto with a four-year, $27 million contract.
Cueto, 24, was one of the Reds’ best pitchers last season, setting a career high for wins (12) and innings (185.2). Cueto finished the regular season a 3.64 ERA and a team-high 138 strikeouts.
In signing Cueto, the Reds have locked up yet another promising young player. Earlier this offseason, the Reds signed outfielder Jay Bruce to a six-year, $51 million deal and first baseman Joey Votto for three years and $38 million.
The Reds have been able to keep their NL Central winning team almost entirely intact while adding quality veteran bats.
The hero of the San Francisco Giants and last year’s World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria was brought in on a one-year, $3 million contract, Fred Lewis signed a one-year, $900k deal and Jeremy Hermida received a minor-league contract for 2011.
All in all, it’s been a very solid offseason for the Reds. Keeping last year’s best offensive team in the National League, as well as a solid starting pitching staff together was the best move the Reds made.
To keep that rotation together, the Reds also exercised their $11 million option on Bronson Arroyo, and then added two years and $23.5 million.
The Reds also have the luxury of having the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Aroldis Chapman ready to take the ball in 2011.
Chapman, the sixth ranked prospect in baseball, throws harder than anyone in the game, able to regularly hit triple digits on the radar gun.
In 15 appearances last season, Chapman posted a 2.03 ERA with 19 strikeouts in just 13.1 IP. His mark of 12.83 K/9 is outrageous. He could fit in as a young, powerful starter or a lights out closer of the future.
The Reds were the best offensive team last season, leading the NL in every major offensive category, and were tied for the best fielding percentage as well. That same team, as well as some quality additions, will take the field in 2011 and defend their Central crown.
Reds fans have a lot to look forward to next season, and on top of it all, it could be a Red October.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
I have semi-randomly chosen to start with the Reds, and will write a piece about each of the thirty teams, talking about what they’ve done in the offseason up to this point and how that projects for the upcoming season. I know there are moves yet to be made, but with most of the impact moves in the books, I think enough has happened to be able to gauge expectations for the upcoming season. If they make any major moves in the coming days, I’ll amend this article.
I thought it might be fun to begin with the playoff teams from last year, then go on to the teams that finished in the basements of their division before finishing with the most exciting bunch—the teams who were/are/should be on the cusp of contention. So, we begin with Cincinnati.
A lot of people liked the Reds this time last year, myself included, but I think most of us were expecting them to contend for the wild card. The fact that they went on and won the NL Central was exciting for Cincinnatians and for baseball fans looking to witness some new blood in the playoffs. Their speedy defeat in October indicated two things: primarily, they couldn’t hang with the Phillies, as everyone except Kevin Millar seemed to think, and that perhaps the Reds have some work to do if they want to make a run at another playoff appearance.
Rotation: Improved
Their rotation is the part of the team that I thought was most overrated last year. Bronson Arroyo’s value comes mostly from his durability, but also partly from the fact that he can occasionally spin an ERA in the threes. If you look at his FIPs, he’s probably a 4.40 guy, but give him a good offense (and a little luck) and he becomes a 17-game winner. Edinson Volquez is a wildcard. He could strike out more than a batter per inning and will walk a guy about once every two innings. I like Johnny Cueto the best out of the Reds’ top three. He’s cut down on the walks and developed an effective cutter, but it remains to be seen whether he can put it all together for a solid 200+ IP campaign.
The team’s ace-in-waiting will start the season in the bullpen, and we have not seen how well Aroldis Chapman’s excellent stuff will translate to the rotation. I hesitate to crown him his generation’s Randy Johnson just yet. The other two spots in the rotation should go to some combination of Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Travis Wood. Homer Bailey seems to have been around forever, but his 2010 gives reason for optimism as he cut the walks, raised the strikeouts, increased the first-pitch strikes. He’s a hard-throwing groundball pitcher and has the natural ability to be successful in the big leagues. Leake struggled after a phenomenal start to his rookie season. He’s a soft-tosser who needs to keep the ball on the ground. Wood seems to have the best control of the three, and I think he gets a shot at starting unless he falls apart this Spring, if only because the Reds already have two or three lefties in their pen and none in their rotation.
I have to say the Reds rotation will be better in 2011 than it was in 2010, if nothing else, because Aaron Harang’s starts will go to one of three guys who each have the potential to be productive major league pitchers. Cueto, Arroyo, and Volquez combined for an ERA of 3.84 last season, and I would expect the trio to be around there again, maybe closer to 4.00. They will need to combine for more than 464 innings this time around though, otherwise undue strain will be placed on the other three, none of whom will probably be allowed anywhere near 200 IP. I expect a few starts for Chapman somewhere down the line, and I expect him to be good, but his value will primarily come from what he does in relief this season. The Reds will field a competitive rotation but they lack any real ace-caliber pitcher (Chapman excluded for now) and only have one guy I consider a lock for 200 IP.
Bullpen: Declined (slightly)
The Reds’ bullpen ranked in the middle out of all MLB teams in most categories (ERA, strikeouts, walks, HR), but shouldered a heavier workload than 21 of the teams. Their closer is a classic seventh-inning guy. Francisco Cordero (don’t ignore his lucky HR rate in 2009) had the second-lowest K/BB rate of any closer in baseball, and the K’s are falling by the year. Yes, he was decent, but the Reds have better pitchers for their toughest situations.
They have arguably lost their best reliever with Arthur Rhodes jumping ship for Texas, but they expect to be competent against lefty hitters with Chapman and Bill Bray. Matt Maloney is another lefty who will get a chance though he lacks the strikeout ability of Chapman and Bray. Maloney made two solid starts for the Reds in 2010 and it will be useful for them to have as many guys who can start a game on hand as possible. Nick Masset was their most-used reliever and he’s an essential component of their late-inning game plan. He gets tons of grounders and can strike guys out. Jose Arredondo will try to come back from Tommy John surgery and Logan Ondrusek was decent, but the latter benefited from a favorable BABIP-against and the it’s hard to know what to expect from the former. Jordan Smith and Sam LeCure were both solid for the team in 2010.
Assuming Ondrusek’s luck neutralizes, Cordero doesn’t turn in another 2009, and Chapman doesn’t post an ERA of 1.00, I don’t think this bullpen will improve on what it did last year. That said, I don’t see them being that much worse. There is some depth, some talent that will need to prove itself, and at least one guy who will start games someday will be working from the pen.
Catcher: Declined
The same catching team from last year returns in 2011. Ramon Hernandez’s 2010 BABIP was a good 35 points above his previous career-high, so he won’t hit .297 again. If he can stay healthy for more than 100 games for the first time as a Red, he could contribute 12 home runs and a league-average OBP. Considering where he’ll hit in their lineup, however, his batting average is more important than his OBP, and I’m projecting it to be around .260.
Ryan Hannigan does have more walks than strikeouts in his career (even if you get rid of the intentional ones) and he actually saw more pitches in the zone (47.7%) than the average major leaguer. Over a full season, he’d probably produce about what Hernandez could be expected to, but as long as he’s the team’s backup, I cant expect him to influence games as much as their starter does and I think Hernandez declines from his 2010 form. If pressed, I do think Hanigan is the better offensive player.
Corner Infielders: Neutral
Joey Votto and Scott Rolen make for one of the best corner infields in the game and both are coming back in 2011. Rolen is nearing his 36th birthday and showed he can still hit (.285) and hit for power (20 HR), both of which are about what we should expect this season. Joey Votto deserved his MVP award but his HR/FB rate was 25%, which is insane. I would expect no more than, say, 32 home runs from him. He hit more home runs on the road last year, so I wouldn’t say his power came entirely from Great American Ballpark but there was some luck there. His BABIP was high too, at .361, but it always tends to be around there for him so I am not expecting it to fall precipitously as he plays his age-27 season. Clearly, he is still a tremendous hitter and will be great. In addition his defense is solid and he can steal bases (16 in 2010). Scott Rolen was outstanding in the field last year as usual.
Middle Infielders: Improved
I like Paul Janish better than Orlando Cabrera for several reasons. Firstly, the two showed very similar batting averages (.260 for Janish, .263 for Cabrera) but Janish did a much better job getting on base despite seeing more pitches in the zone. Secondly, Janish has more power, and though neither has much, Janish could potentially hit 10 HR or so if he lasts the whole season. Janish hits the ball in the air while Cabrera is a groundball machine. The Reds will replace a guy who got on base at a clip of just over .300 with a guy who will probably do an average job of it. Janish also comes much cheaper than Cabrera. Edgar Renteria could step in if Janish struggles but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an improvement. Brandon Phillips has more power than most middle infielders, which makes up for his iffy walk rate and steal success rate. If he had better plate discipline, he could be a star, but as it is he should contribute another .270/.330/.440 line or something like that. Because of his OBPs, he looks more like a number six hitter than a leadoff guy to me, so hopefully Drew Stubbs or someone else steps up and takes that role.
The Reds’ middle infield is not outstanding, but should be serviceable. They will probably struggle to hit .280 as a pair, but with the team’s corner infielders hitting for average, that shouldn’t matter. The entire infield is good with the glove.
Outfield: Slightly improved
Jay Bruce’s extension got a lot of press earlier this offseason and he should continue to develop over the coming years. His is the best bat in this outfield and he could make a run at 30 HR but his BABIP might have been a bit on the lucky side last year when he hit .281. Drew Stubbs strikes out too much, but he’s very fast and has good power and would make a good leadoff man if he improved his contact rate. Another 20 HR is very possible from him. Jonny Gomes has tons of power but wont hit above .270 either. He doesn’t know how to hit groundballs, so he is a perfect fit for that ballpark, even if his defense is awful. The same three guys make up the 2011 Reds outfield, and I could see Stubbs getting a little better while Gomes and Bruce do more or less what they did last year. I think the Reds did the right thing bringing these guys back, letting the youth develop, and if it goes as planned, they will build on their success in 2010.
Bench: Neutral
Fred Lewis is the new fourth-outfielder and he should easily out-hit the duo of Chris Dickerson and Jim Edmonds who struggled in 2010. His defensive range is limited but the small outfield in Cincinnati will suit him well. Chris Heisey will also see time in the outfield. As a 25-year-old rookie last year, he hit 8 home runs in about half a season while striking out too much. He’s a much better fielder than Lewis though and should get some playing time for that reason. Laynce Nix wasn’t going to repeat his .291 average from last year, and I probably would have chosen Lewis over him as well. Miguel Cairo brings defensive versatility back to the Reds’ infield for two more seasons, and Edgar Renteria is always capable of a good week at the plate.
I like the Reds’ bench mainly because they have a few guys who have played that role in the past and done it well enough. It’s hard to evaluate benches as they shouldn’t be expected to have enough playing time to really make a huge difference. I wouldn’t want any of their bench players starting for me on a regular basis, but that’s ok. What their bench lacks is pop, but they have every one of their starters spotted in case of injury. The interesting thing here is, if anyone (except their shortstop) gets hurt, the replacement is a pretty big step below talentwise. Therefore, if the Reds lose a regular player for the season, they’re going to be hard-pressed to replace him. Fortunately, theirs is a fairly deep lineup.
Lineup: The Reds’ lineup is arguably the most complete in their division. It lacks major holes, but could stand to improve in some ways. Its heart (Votto, Bruce, Rolen) is especially strong and is supplemented with talent preceding and following it. Like last season, they probably could stand for more production from the first and second spots. These guys sacrifice some genuine on-base skills for better-than-average power, playing to the ballpark they call home. The 2010 Reds hit more home runs than any non-AL East team, and they continue to be a group that lives and dies with the longball. The also strike out a lot and don’t draw walks with the best of them. Playing to their ballpark is not an unwise strategy, but these guys would be so much better with a couple of really good contact hitters in front of Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Drew Stubbs remains the best candidate for leading off, and someone should work with him on drawing walks.
Expected win total: 84–89
I know that may seem kind of low. Last year’s 91-win club should have won 92 according to Bill James’ Pythagorean winning percentage. James’ formula doesn’t take over- or under-achieving players into account though. While I think the pitching is better as a whole, I am counting on it being less productive for them and thus the entire team being slightly worse off. In most cases, I’m expecting the Reds offense to be about as good or better than they were in 2010. The pitching is where I think they slightly overachieved, and I’m not ready to label Bailey or Wood the ace of the future just yet.
Their offense will need to score runs since all of their starters either can be beat or are relatively unproven. There is a lot of talent in that rotation, and the bullpen is competent, but there is no one that a good offense should fear having to face. I remain open to the possibility that a couple of these guys emerge and start winning games for them, and that will make the team that much stronger.
I see no way The Reds possibly regress to their pre-2010 form. They didn’t catch lightning in a bottle in 2010, they developed home-grown talent and it all came together for them. It wont fall apart that easily. The Reds should have no trouble posting a winning record again, but it remains to be seen whether the young guys develop further and how much they do so.
If you agree or disagree with what I’ve said, please let me know and say why. What do you think of the 2011 Cincinnati club?
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Although the Reds didn’t have a “true” ace this season, which cost them in the postseason, they had a ton of quality depth that helped them navigate through the 162-game meat grinder.
Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Aroldis Chapman and Homer Bailey are the seven names for the five available spots in the rotation.
Without further ado, here’s a look at the individuals, and their potential for making the five-man rotation in 2011.
Hey everyone, baseball fanatic Evan Adrian here, live blogging game 3 of the NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds. Cole Hamels will attempt to close out a sweep of the Reds. Cincinnati turns to Johnny Cueto, hoping the right-handed fireballer can keep this series alive.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com