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As the final two months of the season wind down, the Boston Red Sox will be faced with a couple of very interesting decisions when it comes to Jon Lester as they continue their push for the playoffs.

First, if the Red Sox make the playoffs, should Lester get a start? Secondly, will the Red Sox pick up Lester’s $13 million option for the 2014-15 season?

Dealing with the first question, Lester’s odd season for the Red Sox continued after being the losing pitcher Thursday night with another shaky performance in a 5-1 loss (ESPN game recap). It has been that type of season for Lester, his first season under new manager John Farrell.

Right now, Lester is the No. 4 starter on this pitching staff behind Jake Peavy, John Lackey and Felix Doubront. If Clay Buchholz returns to the rotation, then Lester should be bumped from the rotation come playoff time. The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham has news of Buchholz making progress in rehabbing his right shoulder.

Going back to the start of this season, it looked like Farrell and new pitching coach Juan Nieves had been able to get Lester back in his groove, with the lefty off to a 6-0 start this season. It was the type of performance that made me think that the Red Sox might look at extending Lester at the All Star break.

Since that 6-0 start, Lester has been a decidedly mediocre 4-7. At a time when the Red Sox needed him to be the staff ace, he has been just another guy. With the injuries to Buchholz, Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan, Boston really needed Lester to become the ace of the staff again.

Instead, Lester has settled back into being an inconsistent No. 3 starter, not at all what the Red Sox need right now. The scary part about Lester’s 2013 numbers is that they are very similar to his numbers from 2012, the worst season of Lester’s career.

For a pitcher with a 95-55 career record, it is hard to look at him anymore as a potential ace of a pitching staff when he has only been 19-21 the past two seasons. The ace label seems to sit with Buchholz when he is healthy enough to pitch. It is also easy to understand that the Red Sox may have had some of the same concerns this offseason when Lester’s name was first mentioned in trade rumors.

For whatever reason, Lester hasn’t been the same pitcher he was through the 2011-12 season and he may never be that pitcher again. It begs the question: will the Red Sox seriously consider declining Lester’s 2014 contract option for $13 million?

It sounds silly on the surface, but the Red Sox might decide having Lester making $13 million as a No. 4 starter isn’t the best investment moving forward, especially with all of the young starting pitching coming through the system.

The 29-year-old Lester should be in the prime of his career right now, yet he looks like he might be showing signs of serious decline. For a supposed ace pitcher, Lester has given the Red Sox only 11 quality starts out of his 24 outings.

It is simply not good enough. The Red Sox will be in a dogfight in the American League East for the remainder of the season. For the Red Sox to make the playoffs, Lester will need to improve his overall performance.

Lester used to be the considered the ace of the staff, now the question is simply whether Lester can ever resemble that pitcher again for Boston.

Information used from Baseball Reference, ESPN, Peter Abraham/Boston Globe

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Boston sports fans coming off their Stanley Cup hangovers are beginning to notice the Red Sox again, and what they are seeing is a team defying all expectations.

In fact, the Sox are on pace for one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in franchise history.

With exactly half the season (81 games) gone, the Red Sox entered last night’s game against the Blue Jays with a record of 48-33. They then won again, and assuming they keep the same pace through the second half, they would wind up with a mark of 96-66—a 27-game improvement over the dreadful 69-93 season turned in by the last-place Boys of Bobby Valentine in 2012.

That dramatic of a win differential in back-to-back seasons has not occurred in Boston since the MLB schedule expanded to 162 games in 1961. The closest were the “Impossible Dream” Red Sox, who went from a 70-92, ninth-place finish in 1966 to, one year later, a 92-70 mark and the seventh game of the 1967 World Series.

As with all things baseball, numbers tell a big part of the story. Here are some that help define the Red Sox resurgence.

All stats are through Friday, June 28.

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The baseball gods can be cruel, but they’ve got nothing on Father Time.

That crotchety old you-know-what rarely allows for ballplayers to age like fine wines, and he’s particularly unfair to pitchers. One day a pitcher will be fine and the next—BAM!—he’ll be over the hill. No more velocity, no more stuff, no more guile, no more nothing.

There are a few hurlers around the league who can vouch, notably four guys who ply their trade in Boston, Toronto, Washington D.C and San Francisco.  

Or, at least, myself and B/R Pop Culture Lead Writer Gabe Zaldivar will vouch for them, as they made the cut for our chit-chat about pitchers who just aren’t what they used to be. As they usually are, our ramblings were caught on video.

Leave your comments below if you have any, and you’re also welcome to give Gabe and I a follow on Twitter.

Follow Zachary: @zachrymer

Follow Gabe: @gabezal

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A week after ending the longest sellout streak in baseball, the Red Sox helped fill their fans’ hearts with pride after one of Boston’s darkest days. Then they continued their own shocking revival.

Nobody could have predicted the horrific events that struck the city on Marathon Monday and few could have anticipated the start that has quickly reestablished the Sox—at least for now—as a viable force in the American League. Timely hitting, near-historic starting pitching and a new attitude infused by new manager John Farrell has resulted in the AL’s best record (13-6, tied with Texas) out of the gate.

Even more surprising than the speed with which Farrell seems to have turned around the clubhouse mojo is how quickly the Red Sox have regained the respect of fans disillusioned by the woeful 2012 season and the calamitous reign of Bobby Valentine.

It is still too early to compare this team to the feel-good squads of 1967 and 1975, but as they did in those memorable summers, the Sox are winning with a roster that has few established superstars but plenty of likable characters for whom it’s easy to cheer.

Here’s a look at the Sox in 6:

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In most instances, a manager will focus on the opposing team’s starting pitcher when filling out his lineup card prior to a game.

But that may end up being the opposite of what Boston Red Sox manage John Farrell will do when he fills his out before Boston takes the field against the New York Yankees on April 1. It appears that Farrell will put more emphasis on his starting pitcher than New York’s, who is likely to be CC Sabathia.

Farrell has yet to announce who his Opening Day starter will be, but as Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston writes, all signs point to Jon Lester. Lester has started Boston’s first game the last two seasons, but is coming off a terrible season.

In 2012, Lester went 9-14 in 33 starts, posting a 4.82 ERA across 205.1 innings of work. Lester, however, has had a remarkable spring. In five starts, he has thrown 20 innings while allowing just a pair of earned runs. He’s struck out 16 batters and has walked just four. Giving him the nod on April 1 seems like a no-brainer.

Lester starting against the Yankees does affect who Farrell puts into the lineup, though. Farrell has to decide whether Jarrod Saltalamacchia or David Ross is going to be the Lester’s catcher when the Red Sox take the field against the Bronx Bombers.

While Saltalamacchia is the regular catcher on the roster and Ross is the backup, Ross may end up getting the start. As Edes explains, Ross has caught Lester more times than Saltalamacchia has this spring. Even though Farrell has said he won’t have specific pitcher-catcher pairings, the Boston newcomer may end up being Lester’s regular catcher.

Lester doesn’t think so, though, according to Edes.

“Salty’s the starting catcher, isnt he?” Lester said after Daniel Butler caught him in a minor league game, while Saltalamacchia was behind the plate for Daniel Bard. “I would imagine it’s Salty. I think that’s up to John Farrell when it comes down to that stuff. I would imagine if Salty’s the guy we’re going with, he’s the guy who will be catching me.” 

While Saltalamacchia may end up being the guy behind the plate most this season and the one that catches Lester more often than not, there are some extenuating circumstances that are out of his control.

David Ortiz is going to miss the start of the season as he continues to battle heel issues, leaving the designated hitter’s spot in the lineup unaccounted for. As spring training comes to a close, it appears that Saltalamacchia is a prime candidate to fill in while Ortiz is sidelined.

Saltalamacchia isn’t a fan of that notion, according to Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.

“I’m not a DH,” said Saltalamacchia. “I don’t want to be a DH. I’m not used to sitting on the bench, even if I go in the cages [during the game]. I’m used to catching where I see a ball coming. That helps me because I’m not walking up to the plate having not seen anything. You’re seeing balls come in from your pitchers. You already have that timing down. That helps me.”

Saltalamacchia’s career splits confirm his comments. Over the course of his career, Saltalamacchia has been a .245/.308/.434 hitter as a catcher and a .231/.351/.308 hitter as a designated hitter.

So what should Farrell do?

Although Saltalamacchia is a much better hitter as a catcher, it seems probable that he’ll be the Opening Day designated hitter.

Jonny Gomes is another candidate to fill the void left by Ortiz, but Saltalamacchia is definitely going to be in the lineup, unless he gets injured in the next week or so. Since Ross has been catching Lester the most this spring, one would assume that he’d be in the lineup as well. That would mean that Gomes likely plays left field on April 1.

This situation wouldn’t be nearly as complicated if Clay Buchholz looked like the Opening Day starter instead of Lester. But Lester gives Boston the best chance at opening the 2013 season with a win.

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A little over a week from now, teams will be starting up the 2013 season and working toward the ultimate goal: claiming the title of World Series champions. Players have been working year round and spent this past winter trying to fine tune their craft and adding new dimensions to their game.

Four players have stood out so far this spring who have added to their skill set as a major league player and have already seen tangible results this spring.

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New Red Sox manager John Farrell has his work cut out for him as he tries to pick up the pieces from last year’s horrendous showing under Bobby Valentine. He’s been tasked with patching up the leaking holes that led to the Red Sox’ worst season in nearly 50 years—and then some.

If he can take anything away from his predecessor, it’s a long list of don’ts.

When thinking about all of the things Farrell should approach differently this year than Valentine, the short answer is everything. But here are five crucial lessons to be learned for a guaranteed turnaround in 2013.

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Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester has enjoyed much success during his career, but it’s always seemed that he’s never reached his full potential. Declining production and his own surprising recent comments have further questioned whether he can ever really be an ace.

The left-handed Lester overcame a battle with a rare form of non-Hodgkins lymphoma in 2006 to become the winning pitching in the clinching Game 4 of the 2007 World Series.

After his postseason heroics, Lester won 65 games during the next four seasons, while never posting an ERA higher than 3.47.

His best season came in 2010, when he went 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA and 225 strikeouts.

Lester appeared to be well on his way to becoming an ace after that string of successful seasons. WEEI’s Alex Speier pointed out that the southpaw was only the 16th pitcher since 1901 with four consecutive seasons between the ages of 24-27 to qualify for an ERA title and have an ERA+ of 120 or better. Of those 15 predecessors, nine are in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

On the verge of true stardom, Lester’s numbers have gone down in the past two seasons, culminating in last year’s disappointing 9-14 record and 4.82 ERA.

He has been honest in acknowledging how poor his performance was in 2012, particularly in comments made to the Providence Journal’s Tim Britton:

“It can be intimidating,” Lester said of the city, “especially when you have seasons like last year. You know you suck, and your teammates are trying to pick you up, and everyone else knows you suck, and you’re trying to break even on the deal. It’s tough.”

Some numbers provided by FanGraphs.com offers possible explanations for Lester’s decline. His average fastball velocity of 92.0 mph last year was his lowest mark since 2008. Additionally, his cutter, which ESPN.com’s Buster Olney statistically proved was the best in baseball in 2011, was thrown nearly 50 percent less often in 2012 than the previous year.

Despite the decline in stuff, Lester has remained durable, throwing at least 191.2 innings in each of the past five seasons. Still just 29, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to return to being an effective pitcher, or perhaps even better than before, as long as he is healthy.

However, statistical indicators aren’t the only reasons to doubt Lester can ever become the true ace of a pitching staff. Recent comments he has made have rubbed some the wrong way about how he is approaching his struggles and future development.

He told WEEI’s Rob Bradford that he finds a lot of the expectations heaped upon him as unrealistic and unfair:

What next level is there? That’s the thing that frustrates me. People don’t consider me an ace or don’t consider me a frontline starter…What extra level is there to it? Am I supposed to win 25 games every year? It’s not possible.

How many games did I lose when I gave up three runs or less? I can’t control the outcome of the game. I can only control being healthy every five days and going out there and pitching. That’s what I consider an ace…I don’t know what people want from me for the next level. So I’m not concerned about the next level.

WEEI’s Kirk Minihane was disgusted with what he heard from Lester, writing:

It seems that Lester is offended by the possibility that some might expect him to be more than he has been. Again, no one has ever suggested Jon Lester should win 25 games. But there was an ‘extra level’ that many if not most anticipated Lester would reach, and for Lester not to think that level exists is telling at best and damning at worst.

Put it another way: Don’t ever expect that 22-6, 2.60 season from Jon Lester, because it sure seems Lester doesn’t expect it from himself.

Whatever Lester has classified himself as in the past, he is at least eager to regain that form, as he told Bradford:

The past two years have been kind of reality grabbers and knocked me back into thinking what I have got to do to get back to being me. I think the offseason was a good time to reflect and figure out who I am. Just look back and say, ‘This is me, and this is not me,’ and make adjustments off of that.

Lester will be the longest-tenured starter on Boston’s staff this season and has experienced the most previous success. Like it or not, any hopes for team success in 2013 will rest largely on his left arm, so his ability to embrace and produce in the role of an ace will be of the utmost importance.

Statistics via BaseballReference

Follow @historianandrew

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The Boston Red Sox endured a miserable 93-loss season in 2012, with starting pitcher Jon Lester being one of the players who struggled the most. However, in looking ahead, there are a number of reasons why Lester can bounce back in 2013.

Before last year, the left-handed Lester had been Boston’s most reliable starter, going a combined 76-34 with a 3.53 ERA and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings in his first six major league seasons.

It all came apart for him last year, as he floundered to a 9-14 record, 4.82 ERA and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 33 starts.

Still just 29 years old, Lester should still be in the prime of his career. Although he is trying to come back from his worst season, there are encouraging signs indicating that he can turn things around in 2013.

It doesn’t appear that health is an issue for Lester. He hasn’t experienced any lingering effects from a 2006 bout with cancer, which was before he became a regular in the Boston rotation in 2008.

FanGraphs.com shows Lester’s average fastball velocity in 2012 was 92 mph, just a tick below his career-high mark of 93.5 set in 2009-2010. However, that drop in speed shouldn’t raise red flags, unless it turns into a trend.

One of the primary issues encountered by Lester last year was his inability to consistently start games strong.

The first inning has always been an issue for him, as he has permitted a .335 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 4.48 ERA during that frame, the worst of any inning in his career.

Those first inning struggles only increased last season, as he allowed a .385 BABIP and 4.91 ERA, meaning he was frequently pitching from an early hole.

WEEI’s Stephen Hewitt wrote last year that Lester was shooting himself in the foot by how he started games. The southpaw agreed with that assessment:

“It’s obviously not good. You have to get deeper in the game somehow. Too many pitches, too many foul balls, too many deep counts.

The poor first innings directly contributed to high pitch counts, another issue for Lester last season.

FanGraphs.com indicates Lester threw 3,424 pitches in 2012, representing the highest total of his career. His 16.7 pitches per inning was his highest average since 2007, when he was still a raw youngster trying to gain a full-time roster spot.

Starters know they will only throw a certain number of pitches each game. Although anecdotal, it’s reasonable to speculate that piling up early pitch counts creates pressure to get through subsequent innings more quickly, possibly leading to more fastballs and pitching to contact, which can cause disaster.

Lester may have also lost confidence in his cut fastball in 2012, which could have significantly contributed to his poor results.

The cutter used to be his out-pitch. Prior to the 2011 season, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney used stats from colleague Mark Simon to show that it was the most dominant cutter in the American League; even better than that of Yankees’ closer Mariano Rivera, often hailed as the pitch’s master.

FanGraphs.com—who assigns a “Runs Above Average” value to every pitch in a pitcher’s arsenal—shows the cutter is by far Lester’s most effective pitch during his career. It accounted for a career high 25.1 percent of his pitches in 2011, but that figure tumbled to just 13.3 percent last season, as he relied more heavily on his sinker and changeup as secondary pitches.

Cutters run in on right-handed batters and away from lefties, making it a potentially effective pitch against all hitters if a pitcher has a good one. Lester may find himself getting more outs if he uses it more often in 2013.

The Red Sox may also want to investigate Lester’s ability to work with starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Since the start of the 2011 season, Lester has a 4.55 ERA and 234 strikeouts in 253 innings caught by Salty. He has a 3.44 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 144 innings when caught by anyone else during that time.

The discrepancy in Lester’s production when being caught by different battery mates comes in too large a sample size to ignore. It’s time to explore what has caused that and make changes if necessary.

The bad news is that there may be a number of smaller things that have caused him to stray from what had previously made him one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.

The good news is that there is nothing to suggest that there are any large, overarching issues. An open mind and some close work with the coaching staff could be the keys in helping him make the appropriate corrections.

Boston fans may have been disappointed by Lester last season, but shouldn’t give up yet because all signs point to him having a great chance of bouncing back in 2013.

Statistics via BaseballReference

Follow @historianandrew

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Numerous reports have indicated the willingness of the Kansas City Royals to trade top prospect Wil Myers this offseason for pitching help. The Kansas City Star’s Bob Dutton wrote that Kansas City is willing to hold off on a trade until it feels it has found the right fit. But if it has to trade a prospect like Myers, its best move is to obtain a top-flight pitching prospect instead of a veteran starter.

Myers is an outfielder who will be 22 years old next season, and he is one of the most highly regarded prospects in baseball. The former third-round draft pick exploded in 2012, hitting a combined .314 with 37 home runs and 109 RBI between the Royals’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. Any number of teams would love to add his projectable bat to their lineup.

Dutton already speculated that Myers could help pry southpaw Jon Lester from the Boston Red Sox, and FoxSports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the prospect could bring in right-handed starter James Shields from the Tampa Bay Rays.

Sources tell me and @jonmorosi that #Royals may be at critical stage in decision on whether to trade Myers for an SP such as #Rays’ Shields.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2012

While both Lester and Shields are established major league starters who eat innings for breakfast, they would individually be a poor return on any deal involving Myers. Including team options, Shields has two years and $21 million left on his current deal, while Lester has two years and $24.625 million remaining.

If the Royals acquired either Shields or Lester, they might get good production during the next two seasons, but would be hard-pressed to retain either pitcher after they hit free agency. Two years of a veteran starting pitcher is not a good enough return on a prospect like Myers. 

Despite having traded for starter Ervin Santana and re-signing free agent Jeremy Guthrie, the Royals are a young team and are not looking like serious 2013 playoff contenders. Adding a young pitching prospect, whom they could control at a moderate financial cost for the next five or six seasons, would be a much more fiscally sound move and potentially give them a wider window of opportunity to contend in the future.

The two trade partners the Royals should give the most consideration to are the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves.

Arizona’s 2011 first-round draft pick, right-hander Trevor Bauer, of whom ESPN’s Buster Olney recently wrote had fallen out of favor and was likely to be traded, would be an ideal target. He went 12-2 with a 2.42 ERA in the minors last season. Despite struggling during a four-game stint in the majors, he has the talent and intelligence to develop into an ace on a team like the Royals.

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported that Arizona signed free-agent starter Brandon McCarthy to a two-year deal. Adding McCarthy to Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs gives the team the surplus of pitching next season that would make it easier to think about trading Bauer.

FoxSport’s Jon Paul Morosi recently reported that the Diamondbacks could trade outfielders Jason Kubel or Justin Upton. If that were to happen, exchanging Bauer for an impact outfield prospect like Myers would be a good deal for Arizona because of the need to find a replacement and because of the same financial control they would be able to exert.

The Braves would be the Royals’ other likely trading partner if a swap of prospects were to be explored because they could offer right-hander Julio Teheran in such a deal.

Teheran has pitched professionally for five years, but will only turn 22 later this winter. He was ranked as Baseball America’s fifth-best prospect in 2012 and has already had a couple of brief stints with Atlanta. Possessing a big fastball, he is projected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come.

The Braves also have pitching depth, and adding Myers to an outfield that already boasts Jason Heyward and newly signed B.J. Upton could be enough reason to have them consider such a trade. Atlanta also has a modest payroll that would make a cheap, young impact player like Myers a desirable option.

The Royals should absolutely look into trading Wil Myers if they think they can improve their team in other ways. However, they must look at what their potential return can give them in the long-term, and not just in the next year or two. Gambling on a young pitcher who could turn into the ace they need could be risky, but the potential reward should be tantalizing for a team that is hungry to become a winner.

Statistics via BaseballReference

Follow @historianandrew

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