Kuzul

We’re about to present a slideshow in which we analyze the voting for the 2010 American League Cy Young Award. We’re going to look at 10 Cy Young Award candidates and analyze them along several lines, i.e. how much run support each one got, how well each player kept the ball in the yard, how hurt by his home park each one was.

But at the end of the day, none of this matters, because really all we want to know is the answer to this one question: Is this the year? Will this be the historic year in which the Baseball Writers Association of America does the correct thing and gives the Cy Young Award to the best pitcher in his league, without regard for his win-loss record?

Put another way: Will Felix Hernandez win the 2010 American League Cy Young Award?

Let’s have a look.

Begin Slideshow

Not many pitchers with a 12-12 record would ever make a compelling case to win a Cy Young Award. But Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners not only has a legitimate case, he is the most deserving to win in the American League.

Forget the 12-12 record for now. Hernandez’s numbers are tremendous. His 2.31 earned run average is currently second in major league baseball by a single point and is nearly a full run lower than CC Sabathia, who has eight more wins and is also one of the favorites for the Cy Young.

His 227 strikeouts are also second in baseball. He is tied with Roy Halladay with the most innings pitched with 241.2. He also leads baseball in quality starts and start percentage. 

Hernandez also pitches for a team with the second fewest wins in baseball as the Mariners currently sit 28 games out of first place at 59-96.

In his 12 losses, he has received a grand total of seven runs of support. The Mariners have scored won or fewer runs in 10 of 33 starts, and two or fewer runs 15 times and have not scored a run in seven of his last 13 starts.

And finally, and not surprisingly, he has the fewest run support in the American League with 3.09 runs per start. And while Sabathia pitches for the best offense in baseball, Hernandez pitches for the worst.

His support neutral win-loss of 21-12 is the best in MLB. Now would Sabathia have nearly as good of a record that he does if he pitched for the Mariners? 

Absolutely not.

The bottom line is that wins are not the only statistic to judge a pitcher by. And if you take away King Felix’s win-loss record, he would be a shoo-in to win the AL Cy Young. But he should be one anyways.

If Felix Hernandez does not win the American League Cy Young, it will be an absolute shame. 

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In recent weeks a lot has been made about the American League Cy Young award and the debate has mostly surrounded CC Sabathia vs. Felix Hernandez. Last night the Yankees were blanked by Jon Lester and it was an amazing performance that should put him into that conversation as well.

First, let’s get some stats out of the way:

To me, Felix Hernandez is still out in front, but his 12-12 record really doesn’t sit well with a lot of people (even though a team’s lineup and defense weighs at least as heavily as a pitcher’s performance on the mound, so the “Win” statistic is probably the worst representation of a pitcher’s performance out of all the stats above).

So even though it seems ignorant to blame King Felix’s record for why he shouldn’t win, let’s ignore him for now.

Moving on to Jon Lester. Lester has flown under the Cy Young radar for most of the season. Probably because he really never stood out until a recent hot streak and that there have been so many issues surrounding the Red Sox.

Newly acquired John Lackey has been under a microscope, Josh Beckett has been drawing attention thanks to a new contract, an up-and-down season, and injuries. Also there has been Clay Buchholz and his phenomenal season.

Lester won his 19th game of the season last night, giving him at least one more chance to match Sabathia’s 20. He has a lower ERA than CC, as many complete games, more strikeouts, a lower WHIP, a smaller home run rate, a better strikeout rate, and a superior strikeout to walk rate. Really there are only three things he trails CC in, wins, innings, and he walks more (but again, his strikeout to walk ratio is better).

All along, King Felix has had better numbers when compared to Sabathia, but because of a win total many have thought Sabathia has been superior. Now there is a candidate that might be superior to Sabathia and has the win total to back it up.

Personally, I am a huge Sabathia fan. Ever since he signed on the dotted line and donned the pinstripes, he has been my favorite pitcher. And I think he could win a Cy Young one year and will always root for him. But the bottom line is that I don’t want to see him win one that is undeserved because writers put too much emphasis on a stat that says so little about the way you pitch.

If ignorance has to reign, Lester should probably win the award over Sabathia anyway.

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As your fantasy baseball marathons come down to the wire look to these players to help your team or keep them from hindering your team.  Rookies’ Starlin Castro and Ike Davis should have stellar weeks for your team.

Start ‘Em

Starlin Castro | Chicago Cubs | 81 percent
This 20-year-old phenom has been a work in progress with his glove but clearly has been an offensive asset.  This week Castro faces the Cardinals and Marlins.  In 36 at-bats this year against, Castro has hit .361 and .359 since the All-Star break.  This should be a strong sign that his numbers will keep pace for these games.

Ike Davis | New York Mets | 35.4 percent
Ike faces two opponents this week that really haven’t given a problem all year and on top of that they are at home where he’s hitting a solid .294.  This is over a 50 point jump from his away splits.  Pittsburgh is up first where Ike is hitting .500 in 10 at-bats.  Ike’s next opponent has been more of a challenge.  This year against Atlanta Ike has only hit .233.  However, his OBP is .421 and his isolated power is fairly strong at .189.  Look for him to buck that average trend and hit for some power against the Braves.

Sit ‘Em

Adam Jones | Baltimore Orioles | 84.5 percent
Jones faces a tough road ahead this week with the Blue Jays and then the Yankees. Against the Blue Jays this year, Jones is hitting a weak .217 through 46 at-bats.  His next opponent, the Yankees, have held him to a .216 average through 51 at-bats.  Making matters worse for Jones, he will be facing three left-handed pitchers, against which he is only hitting .261, with a .293 OBP.

Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels | 87 percent
Napoli will be playing on the road for both series this week.  His first stop is in Cleveland, at Progressive Field.  His next stop is in St. Petersburg at Tropicana Field.  Collectively at both stadiums, Napoli has an unimpressive career average of only .170, through 48 at-bats.  Worse is the fact that all but one of the starting pitchers that Napoli will face is right-handed.  Against righties this year Napoli is hitting .212 with a .279 OBP.

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It may be all over except for the crying.

With eight innings of one-hit ball on Thursday afternoon against the Oakland Athletics, C.C. Sabathia has become the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award, and he may have even clinched it.

Why?

Well, I’ll tell ya.  C.C. Sabathia will be the 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner because . . . 

Begin Slideshow

Tony Massarotti said on 98.5 The Sports Hub this afternoon that the odds were stacked mightily against the Red Sox heading into Friday night’s critical series opener at Tampa Bay.

The Sox were sending Jon Lester to the hill against a team that has pounded left-handed pitching, and the Sox were rolling out a lineup against David Price—who has been death on lefties himself—without their two best right-handed hitters in Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.

He also said a win under such circumstances would go a long way toward changing his mind about the playoff chase. Massarotti had all but left the Red Sox for dead, but said a victory Friday night would convince him a postseason appearance may be possible.

I laughed the statement off myself. And then I watched the game.

And couldn’t help but feel the same way.

Friday’s victory is the kind of win that inspires confidence. It’s the kind of win the Red Sox were built for, at the time of year where such a win carries exponentially more value.

The formula was followed to perfection, Jon Lester handed the ball to Daniel Bard, who handed it to Jonathan Papelbon, and all three looked as dominant as expected. The offense didn’t go bananas, but it did enough, most notably getting a pair of homers from Victor Martinez. It was just the way Red Sox management drew it up in April.

Of course, it’s the kind of win that means nothing if the Sox go out the next two nights and get their lunch handed to them. But, at least for the time being, there’s reason to be optimistic. The pitchers who prove vital this time of year appear to be firing on all cylinders. Perhaps most importantly Papelbon, who has been shaky at best at times this season.

And the win closed the gap in the Wild Card to 4.5 games. It’s dangerous to get so far ahead of oneself to imagine wins in both of the remaining games of the series, but should such fortune strike the Red Sox the deficit would be down to 2.5 games with plenty of season left.

The simple fact of the matter is even a split of the next two leaves the Sox in solid position, especially given that they have three more with Tampa at Fenway in another 10 days or so. The bottom line is if there is a comeback, it has to start somewhere. And Friday is as good a place as any.

It’s too early to put any champagne on ice just yet. But there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic following a critical win on Friday night. Reason that may not have been there as recently as five hours ago.

Tony Mazz wasn’t lying.

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With Ricky Romero recently signing a new 5-year, $30.1 million contract extension, there have been comparisons drawn to Jon Lester ($30 million) and Yovani Gallardo ($30.1 million), both of whom have signed similar contracts in recent years.  Those two have developed into the elite class of starting pitchers in Major League Baseball, so should we expect Romero to follow?

With Romero and Lester both being lefties and pitching in the highly competitive AL East, let’s take a look at how they both fared and if we can expect Romero to make a similar impact.

I’m going to compare Lester’s first three seasons (remember, he missed time during that span with non-Hodgkin lymphoma), which covers 60 starts to Romero’s first two seasons (53 starts):

Major Leagues:
Lester – 354.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, .305 BABIP
Romero – 338.0 IP, 3.89 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, .313 BABIP

Those numbers are extremely similar.  When we dig a bit deeper, the groundball rate may actually point things into Romero’s favor:

• Romero has posted GB% of 54.0% & 54.2%
• Lester posted marks of 40.6%, 34.4% & 47.5%

Those numbers are a little skewed, however.  It’s possible the time missed played a huge role in the matter, but Lester’s velocity hovered around 90.0 mph in ‘06 and ‘07.  The past two seasons, he’s averaged over 93 mph on his fastball.

Looking at the minor league numbers, you get a little bit of a different picture:

Lester – 377.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, .306 BABIP
Romero – 430.0 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, .321 BABIP

Yes, some of Romero’s problems were due to some poor luck, but his strikeout potential is clearly below that of Lester’s.  Don’t get me wrong, everything that Romero has done this season is extremely realistic, and I would expect him to continue his strong showing.

He has made vast improvements in his control, with a BB/9 of 3.3 this season.  If he can maintain that while consistently generating groundballs as he is (and always has, with a minor league groundball rate of 48.6%), then he generates more then enough Ks to be a strong option and a solid Major League pitcher.

However, I don’t see him generating enough strikeouts to forge his way into the class of a Lester—or Gallardo, for that matter.  While his numbers are similar to Lester’s over his first two seasons, there is something tangible to point to in order to explain Lester’s regression in strikeouts.  Romero has simply never shown the upside in the strikeout department, though he has averaged close to 91 mph on his fastball this season.  Maybe he’ll continue to develop in time, but there’s little chance of him becoming a strikeout per inning pitcher.

This year could be Romero’s upside.  How many more groundballs can he generate?  Can his control improve any more?  He’d need to improve there if he can’t become a more prevalent strikeout pitcher.  He’s a good option, just consider him a second tier pitcher, at best.

What are your thoughts on Romero?  Can he develop into a pitcher in the class of Lester?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out yesterday’s Fantasy Baseball Player Prophet:

• Logan Morrison vs. James Loney

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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The Boston Red Sox took care of business tonight in Arlington, TX by defeating the Texas Rangers 3-1.

Jon Lester received his first victory in four straight losing starts. Lester was masterful, throwing eight scoreless innings with five strikeouts, only allowing five hits.

Boston came up with timely offense in the sixth and ninth innings. JD Drew, Marco Scuatro, and Bill Hall came away the game with one RBI a piece.

As the game came to a completion, Red Sox rookie pitcher Felix Doubront came away with his first career save.

Side note: Ryan Kalish continues to succeed at the Major League level. Kalish was 2-3 tonight with two runs scored.

Like what you see? You can read more of Tony’s work and many other sports articles atwww.SportsHaze.com and www.BeantownObserver.com

You can also follow Tony via Twitter @TonySantorsa10

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If you’re like me and have been distracted by the World Cup and LeBron-gate over these past few weeks, you were probably shocked to learn that baseball’s midway point is already upon us.

So to help you get into the swing of things as we head toward the playoffs, here are 50 Reasons To Be Excited For The Second Half of the season…

1. Major League Baseball Home Run Leader, Jose Bautista: So, are we sure George Mitchell caught everyone who was using steroids? Just asking.

2. The Hope That The Cardinals Make An Unexpected Run To The World Series: Just to see Tony LaRussa managing the 2011 All-Star game in Phoenix.

3. The Ongoing Texas Rangers Bankruptcy Trial: You knew things were bad when reports came out last week that Nolan Ryan was opening a lemonade stand.

4. David Wright and “The Situation”: I don’t care if the Mets end up making the playoffs or not. This video clip will always be the highlight of their 2010 season.

5. The White Sox Resurgence: Question: We always hear about Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein, but why doesn’t Kenny Williams ever get credit for being one of the elite GM’s in baseball? This roster has been made over more times than Joan Rivers’ face, yet here come the White Sox again, closing in on another division title.

6. The Pittsburgh Pirates: Going on 14 straight sub-.500 seasons and counting. Well, at least Pittsburgh still has that Roethlisberger guy… Umm, never mind.

7. The Summer of Strasburg: Strasburg has sold more jersey’s in six months than anyone ever has as a rookie. I don’t care what the experts say, he should have been on the All-Star team.

8. Cubs Pitcher Carlos Zambrano: I mean, at this point, I feel like it’d be cruel to pile on. So instead, just insert your own joke here.

9. Josh Johnson: No joke to make here, the dude is just filthy. My only wish is that I got to watch him pitch more often.

(Because of length, this is only PART of Aaron’s 50 Reasons To Be Excited For the Second Half of the Baseball Season. To read the REMAINDER, visit www.aarontorres-sports.com)

10. My First Trip to Camden Yards: Which is scheduled for next week. Anyone have any suggestions?

11. My First Trip to the New Yankee Stadium: Which is scheduled for sometime before the end of the summer. Anyone have tickets they want to give away?

12. The Bobby Cox Farewell Tour: Anyone want to chip in on a fruit basket?

13. Miguel Cabrera: If he wins the Triple Crown, does that mean we can’t make anymore jokes about last year’s .23 blood/alcohol content?

14. Baseball’s Continued Pitching Revolution: Which, just for the record, I pointed out about a full month before the rest of the national media.

15. Jon Lester’s Starts: He throws hard, throws strikes, is efficient, and that cutter is deadly. Watching him pitch has been my favorite part of this Red Sox season so far.

16. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s Starts: Take everything I just said about Lester’s starts and flip it around. I don’t care if he’s pitching relatively well this year. He’s slow, boring, and has set the game of baseball back 20 years. I hate the guy.

17. My Preseason Prop Bet That Mark Reynolds Would Lead the Majors in Home Runs: Let’s just say I got good odds. Let’s just say if he comes through, I’m buying everyone their own Mark Reynolds bobble head. Let’s just say nothing, since gambling isn’t really legal in this country.

18. The San Diego Padres Run Toward a Division Crown: Look on the bright side Padres fans: Even if they don’t make the playoffs, well, you still live in San Diego. Which means you’ve already got the rest of us beat.

19. Chan Ho Park’s Bowel Movements: Will he survive the entire second half without another case of explosive diarrhea? Stay tuned to find out.

20. Kendry Morales’ Broken Leg: I still haven’t decided who that broken leg was more damaging to: The Angels, or my fantasy team.

21. New Blue Jays Shortstop Yunel Escobar: Gotta love Buster Olney’s story from Thursday of when Escobar wished one of his Braves teammates a Happy Birthday, and the guy responded by saying that the only gift he wanted was for Escobar to play hard that night. Hmm…I wonder why he got traded?

22. The Patterson Brothers: Corey plays outfield for the Orioles. Eric was called up to the Red Sox before the All-Star break. Now we finally know what it would have been like if Chris Gwynn and Craig Griffey had been brothers.

23. Because Thanks To Baseball: We can finally stop talking about LeBron.

24. Corey Hart: I don’t care about the home runs. Doesn’t he just look like a fun guy to hang out with?

25. The All-Star Game’s Record-Low Ratings: Once again proving my theory that the only thing dying at a faster rate than baseball is the porn industry.

(This is just PART of Aaron’s 50 Reasons To Be Excited For the Remainder of the Baseball Season. To read the rest, please click here or visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com.

Also, for Aaron’s take on all things sports, be sure to follow him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres or at Facebook.com/AaronTorresSports and download his APP for your iPhone or Android)

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The fans may not have given the Red Sox much love when casting their ballots for the all-star game, but opposing players and managers- as well as Major League Baseball itself- certainly did as six Red Sox were chosen to play in the Mid-Summer Classic next week in Los Angeles.

And now Sox fans can help to make certain that another player gets to go along too, as a seventh player (1B Kevin Youkilis) is one of five non-selectees nominated in the MLB.com Final Vote.

The American League starting squad will consist of two players each from the Minnesota Twins, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers, as well as one Seattle Mariner… and in spite of the fact no Red Sox player was selected to start the game, The Olde Towne Team tied the Yankees for the most players to be selected for the AL squad, with six.

Boston players so honored were C Victor Martinez (4th selection), 2B Dustin Pedroia (3rd), 3B Adrian Beltre (1st), DH David Ortiz (6th), RHP Clay Buchholz (1st) and LHP Jon Lester (1st).

Unfortunately, Martinez and Pedroia are injured and won’t be able to participate in the ballgame. They will be replaced by Texas 2B Ian Kinsler and Toronto C John Buck, respectively.

And we will learn in the next 24 hours if Clay Buchholz will share their fate, as unconfirmed reports indicate he will likely join his teammates on the disabled list sometime this week.

Red Sox fans also have the opportunity to send Youkilis to the game- which would give the Red Sox an MLB-high seven all-stars!

He is one of the five players eligible to be selected to the team by fan balloting, along with 1B Paul Konerko of the Chicago White Sox, OF Nick Swisher of the NY Yankees, OF Delmon Young of the Minnesota Twins and 3B Michael Young of the Texas Rangers.

Voting can be done exclusively at MLB.com… click here to vote for YOUK!

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Here are your 2010 all-stars… starters are in bold-faced type:

American League:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN (Victor Martinez, BOS*; John Buck, TOR)

1B: Justin Morneau, MIN (Miguel Cabrera, DET)

2B: Robinson Cano, NYY (Dustin Pedroia, BOS*; Ian Kinsler, TEX; Ty Wiggington, BAL)

3B: Evan Longoria, TB (Adrian Beltre, BOS; Alex Rodriguez, NYY)

SS: Derek Jeter, NYY (Elvis Andrus, TEX)

OF: Carl Crawford, TB; Josh Hamilton, TEX; Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (Jose Bautista, TOR; Torii Hunter, LAA; Vernon Wells, TOR)

DH: Vladimir Guerrero, TEX (David Ortiz, BOS)

SP: Clay Buchholz, BOS; Trevor Cahill, OAK; Fausto Carmona, CLE; Phil Hughes, NYY; Cliff Lee, SEA; Jon Lester, BOS; David Price, TB; and C C Sabathia, NYY

RP: Neftali Feliz, TEX; Mariano Rivera, NYY; Joakim Soria, KC; Matt Thornton, CWS; and Jose Valverde, DET

National League:

C: Yadier Molina, ST L (Brian McCann, ATL)

1B: Albert Pujols, ST L (Adrian Gonzalez, SD; Ryan Howard, PHI)

2B: Chase Utley, PHI* (Brandon Phillips, CIN; Martin Prado, ATL)

3B: David Wright, NYM (Omar Infante, ATL; Scott Rolen, CIN)

SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA (Troy Tulowitzki, COL*; Jose Reyes, NYM)

OF: Ryan Braun, MIL; Andre Ethier, LAD; Jason Heyward, ATL (Michael Bourn, HOU; Marlon Byrd, CC; Corey Hart, MIL; Matt Holliday, ST L; and Chris Young, AZ)

SP: Chris Carpenter, ST L; Yovani Gallardo, MIL; Roy Halladay, PHI; Tim Hudson, ATL; Ubaldo Jimenez, COL: Josh Johnson, FLA; Tim Lincecum, SFG; Evan Meek, PIT; and Adam Wainright, ST L

RP: Jonathan Broxton, LAD; Matt Capps, WAS; Arthur Rhodes, CIN; and Brian Wilson, SFG

NL nominees for fans Final Vote: RHP Heath Bell, SD; OF Carlos Gonzalez, COL; 1B Joey Votto, CIN; LHP Billy Wagner, ATL; 3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS.

* unable to participate due to injury

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And with that, there is already much discussion about the snubs from each team.

In the American League, the biggest snub was Youkilis- who has been the best player on the Red Sox thus far in 2010.

But beyond Youk, I have to admit I was surprised that LAA RHP Jered Weaver wasn’t named to the team- since he leads the league in strikeouts and the game is being played on his home field.

Also, what about Seattle righty Felix Hernandez- who is arguably one of the three or four best pitchers in the league even though his record doesn’t reflect his ability (he does, after all, play for the woeful Mariners)? Or maybe DET OF Magglio Ordinez or CWS OF Alex Rios, who finally appears to have harnessed his immense potential?

NOTE: NYY lefty C.C. Sabathia is scheduled to pitch on Sunday and, by rule, he won’t be permitted to take a spot on the AL’s active roster. While I suspect Joe Torre would prefer to name his own pitcher, Andy Pettitte (who has 10 wins) to replace Sabathia, it seems likely the league will say the Yankees already have enough players on the roster, and that either Weaver or Hernanadez will be tabbed to replace the big lefty on the active roster.

The betting here is Youkilis wins the Final Vote, and Weaver is chosen to replace Sabathia because of the fact the game is being played in Anaheim.

In the National League, Bell, Gonzalez and Votto are on the Final Vote ballot. In addition I would add a couple of other snubs – C Miguel Olivo of the Colorado Rockies (.308 / 11 / 39) or RHP Mike Pelfrey of the NY Mets (10-2, 2.93).

It says here that Votto will win the Final Vote, although I will vote for Bell, who leads all of baseball in saves.

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